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At least 1,639 records · Page 91Linked to original sources
USGS2014

"Report a Landslide” A website to engage the public in identifying geologic hazards

Direct observation by people is the most practical way of identifying, locating, and describing most damaging landslides. In an effort to increase public awareness of landslide hazards and encourage public participation in collecting basic data about landslides, the USGS recently launched a website called “Report a landslide.” The website is modeled in part after the highly successful USGS website “Did you feel it?” which has been used for several years to gather data from the public about intensity of felt earthquakes. The new “Report a landslide” website encourages visitors to report where and when they observed a landslide and to classify the landslide by movement type. Interested users also can report information about damage and casualties, dimensions, and simple geological observations, and can submit photographs of the landslide. Once a user submits a report, the location of the reported landslide appears on a map, and the location is linked to a summary of submitted data. Photos are reviewed prior to posting on the event page. By adding existing USGS data from historical landslides and promoting the website in the wake of large, regional landslide events, we hope to generate widespread awareness and interest in the website. The “Report a landslide” site has great potential for eventually creating a nationwide source of basic landslide data.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2018

Coseismic sackungen in the New Madrid seismic zone, USA

High‐resolution lidar reveals newly recognized evidence of strong shaking in the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States. We mapped concentrations of sackungen (ridgetop spreading features) on bluffs along the eastern Mississippi River valley in northwestern Tennessee that likely form or are reactivated during large earthquakes. These sackungen are concentrated on the hanging wall of the Reelfoot reverse fault and show a preferential orientation indicating ground failure normal to fault strike. These observations suggest that the sackungen record one or more earthquakes on the southern Reelfoot fault since the deposition of the ~30‐ to 11‐ka Peoria Loess and potentially constrain the minimum intensity of near‐fault ground motion. This study demonstrates that sackungen can be used to infer fault source and mechanism and, in combination with field‐based techniques, improve paleoseismic records and seismic hazard models.

New Madrid Seismic Zone↗
USGS2011

Seismologists meet “Down Under”

Planned presentations on hazard assessment and research weren't the only topics for discussion at the 27th General Assembly of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI), held from January 10–21 at the University of Victoria in Wellington, New Zealand. There was a more timely one unfolding: California's Northridge earthquake. When conference participants awoke to news of the earthquake on January 18, they scrambled to action to gather the latest data available. Just 12 hours after the event, they held a general discussion about the earthquake.

Wellington↗
USGS2021

NGA-East ground-motion characterization model Part II: Implementation and hazard implications

As a companion article to Goulet et al., we describe implementation of the NGA-East ground motion characterization (GMC) model in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for sites in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We present extensions to the EPRI/DOE/NRC seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the CEUS needed for full implementation of NGA-East. Comparisons are presented to the EPRI GMC, the currently accepted model by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for hazard assessment at nuclear facilities. Comparisons are presented both in terms of GMC model components and in the resulting seismic hazard assessments for a range of site locations in the CEUS. Illustrations of the effect of various components of the NGA-East GMC on seismic hazard results are also presented. Finally, we present recommendations for application of the NGA-East GMC in PSHA.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2001

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motions and fault displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2014

Why the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake matters 50 years later

Spring was returning to Alaska on Friday 27 March 1964. A two‐week cold snap had just ended, and people were getting ready for the Easter weekend. At 5:36 p.m., an earthquake initiated 12 km beneath Prince William Sound, near the eastern end of what is now recognized as the Alaska‐Aleutian subduction zone. No one was expecting this earthquake that would radically alter the coastal landscape, influence the direction of science, and indelibly mark the growth of a burgeoning state.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Geology and coastal hazards in the northern Monterey Bay, California: Field trip guidebook, November 4, 2000

The purpose of this field trip is to explore the relationships between local geology, coastal hazards, and human influences in the northern Monterey Bay, which is a tectonically active high wave energy coastal environment. Seacliffs, shore platforms, pocket beaches and a headland/embayment morphology characterize this rocky coastline. Many studies of the onshore and offshore geology and geophysics, the local wave climate, and the effects of large storm events and earthquakes on the coastline have been conducted in this region (see Related Reading section). This field trip summarizes many of the findings of these research investigations, and also considers the relationship between the rates and styles of seacliff erosion and the variations in the local geology. The field trip stops allow the participant to examine seacliff sites of different geological lithologies, geographic orientations, and varying protection from wave attack, and consider how these variables affect not only the rate or magnitude of seacliff retreat but also the styles of retreat. In general the two primary forcing factors in the retreat of seacliffs are marine and terrestrial processes. At the various field trip stops, the relative importance of these processes in shaping the coastline at that particular location will be explored. Where beaches have developed, whether naturally or by emplacement of man-made structures, field trip stops are designed to look at the occurrence of the beaches (why they exist where they do) and to understand the response of the beaches to large storm events. Finally, this trip focuses on the various coastline protection structures that have been built in the area, and their effectiveness in protecting development on the beaches or at the tops of the seacliffs. The first stop of the trip is the Long Marine Lab facility where the seacliffs are composed of the most resistant geological unit in the area, the Miocene Santa Cruz Mudstone. This stop also includes discussion of some of the interesting geological features associated with this part of the Bay, including the arches at Natural Bridges State Beach. The field trip stops are progressively east and south, moving into the inner Monterey Bay, as well as into the less resistant lithologies of the late Miocene to Pliocene Purisima Formation, and finally the Pleistocene Aromas Sand. The route will follow the coast wherever possible so participants can get a full perspective of the northern Monterey Bay coastline, even where stops have not been planned.

California↗
USGS2008

Quantifying and Qualifying USGS ShakeMap Uncertainty

We describe algorithms for quantifying and qualifying uncertainties associated with USGS ShakeMap ground motions. The uncertainty values computed consist of latitude/longitude grid-based multiplicative factors that scale the standard deviation associated with the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) used within the ShakeMap algorithm for estimating ground motions. The resulting grid-based 'uncertainty map' is essential for evaluation of losses derived using ShakeMaps as the hazard input. For ShakeMap, ground motion uncertainty at any point is dominated by two main factors: (i) the influence of any proximal ground motion observations, and (ii) the uncertainty of estimating ground motions from the GMPE, most notably, elevated uncertainty due to initial, unconstrained source rupture geometry. The uncertainty is highest for larger magnitude earthquakes when source finiteness is not yet constrained and, hence, the distance to rupture is also uncertain. In addition to a spatially-dependant, quantitative assessment, many users may prefer a simple, qualitative grading for the entire ShakeMap. We developed a grading scale that allows one to quickly gauge the appropriate level of confidence when using rapidly produced ShakeMaps as part of the post-earthquake decision-making process or for qualitative assessments of archived or historical earthquake ShakeMaps. We describe an uncertainty letter grading ('A' through 'F', for high to poor quality, respectively) based on the uncertainty map. A middle-range ('C') grade corresponds to a ShakeMap for a moderate-magnitude earthquake suitably represented with a point-source location. Lower grades 'D' and 'F' are assigned for larger events (M>6) where finite-source dimensions are not yet constrained. The addition of ground motion observations (or observed macroseismic intensities) reduces uncertainties over data-constrained portions of the map. Higher grades ('A' and 'B') correspond to ShakeMaps with constrained fault dimensions and numerous stations, depending on the density of station/data coverage. Due to these dependencies, the letter grade can change with subsequent ShakeMap revisions if more data are added or when finite-faulting dimensions are added. We emphasize that the greatest uncertainties are associated with unconstrained source dimensions for large earthquakes where the distance term in the GMPE is most uncertain; this uncertainty thus scales with magnitude (and consequently rupture dimension). Since this distance uncertainty produces potentially large uncertainties in ShakeMap ground-motion estimates, this factor dominates over compensating constraints for all but the most dense station distributions.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1981

Eastern Gulf of Alaska seismicity: Annual report to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for April 1, 1980, through March 31, 1981

The objective of this research is to collect and analyze data on earthquake activity in the northeast Gulf of Alaska (NEGOA) and adjacent onshore areas in order to develop a better regional seismotectonic model and more accurately assess the earthquake potential. This information is critical to the establishment of criteria for the safe development of oil and gas. Large (M s > 7) historical earthquakes have occurred in and around the NEGOA, and recent studies suggest that the NEGOA is a likely site for a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake to occur within the next two or three decades. A great earthquake (Ms>8) associated with low-angle oblique underthrusting of the sea floor beneath continental shelf could be accompanied by strong ground shaking throughout much of the eastern Gulf of Alaska, possibly from Cross Sound to Kayak Island (Page, 1975), and could trigger tsunamis, seiches, and submarine slumping, any of which could be hazardous to offshore and coastal structures (Meyers, 1976).

Alaska↗
USGS1991

Volcanic-hazards assessments; past, present, and future

A new reason to study volcanoes has developed within the last few decades; it is to anticipate the specific kinds and extents of future eruptions and their effects on people and property. Such studies are based chiefly on the eruptive histories of volcanoes and the distribution of past eruptive products. Volcanic-hazards studies in the U.S Geological Survey began in the 1960's primarily to provide data useful for hazard mitigation during future eruptions. Worldwide interest in volcanic-hazards assessments was greatly stimulated by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, just 2 years after a hazards assessment of the volcano was published in U.S Geological Survey Bulletin 1383-C. Many climactic eruption on May 18, although the extent of the unprecedented and devastating lateral blast was not anticipated.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
USGS2022

Comparisons of the NGA-Subduction ground motion models

In this article, ground-motion models (GMMs) for subduction earthquakes recently developed as part of the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project are compared. The four models presented in this comparison study are documented in their respective articles submitted along with this article. Each of these four models is based on the analysis of the large NGA-Sub database. Three of the four current models are developed for a global version as well as separate regionalized models. The fourth model was developed based on earthquakes only from Japan, and as such is applicable only for Japan. As part of this comparison study, a general discussion on the parameterization of the four models and the regionalization of the three models is provided. The specific strengths and or weaknesses or the technical decisions and justifications of any one model are not part of this comparison. A selected suite of deterministic attenuation curves and spectra are presented for the models along with a selected suite of currently used subduction models. A limited number of comparisons are presented in this article with a larger number of comparisons and the digital values provided in the electronic attachment. In addition to these scenario calculation comparisons, the results from a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for two sites located in the Pacific Northwest Region in the state of Washington are presented. These calculations highlight the potential impact of using the new GMMs. Based on the comparisons presented here, a general understanding of these new GMMs can be obtained with the expectation that the implementation of a specific seismic hazard study should incorporate similar and additional comparisons and sensitivity studies pertinent to the site of interest.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2006

Summary of preliminary 2D inundation modeling for three Hattian landslide dam breach scenarios

On October 8, 2005, a M 7.6 earthquake near Muzafarrabad, Pakistan, triggered a landslide that dammed the Karli River and one of its tributaries about 4 km upstream of the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers near the town of Hattian Bala. The smaller dam on the tributary of the Karli River has been artificially breached and is no longer a hazard. When the larger dammed lake on the Karli River has filled enough to flow over the landslide blockage, it will have impounded about 60 million cubic meters of water. This lake will drain through the landslide dam as it breaches during the spring runoff or during the monsoon season in early summer. The inundation associated with the Karli River landslide dam breach endangers a substantial downstream population, particularly the population located in the vicinity of Hattian Bala at the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers. To help mitigate this hazard, we used an accurate two-dimensional flow model to simulate dambreak flows associated with three breach-rate downcutting scenarios, and estimated inundation depths and peak flow velocities. We superimposed inundation extents and other attributes on photographic images of the region to provide clear delineation of potential impacts on populated areas near the confluence of the Karli and Jhelum rivers.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps

The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as many earthquake strong ground shaking data and by incorporating many additional scientific studies that indicate broader ranges of earthquake source and ground motion models. These time-independent maps are shown for 2-percent and 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for peak horizontal ground acceleration as well as 5-hertz and 1-hertz spectral accelerations with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition (760 meters per second shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m, V S30 ). In this report, the 2014 updated maps are compared with the 2008 version of the maps and indicate changes of plus or minus 20 percent over wide areas, with larger changes locally, caused by the modifications to the seismic source and ground motion inputs.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

eastern United States↗
USGS2021

Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption

The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit magma reservoir into the Lower East Rift Zone resulted in the formation of a new caldera at the summit. I tested the applicability of the FFM to caldera collapse by analyzing the cyclical earthquake swarms and ground deformation that occurred between 62 sudden major caldera collapse events. The progression of both the cumulative moment release of the cyclical earthquakes and the GNSS displacement show a major change in mid-June. In late May through early June, the progression of the parameters is consistent with strain localization or creep progression related to the development or activation of the ring fault system. From late June until the end of the eruption, parameter progression is roughly steady with initial accelerating increases in cumulative moment and displacement that shift to approximately linear progression. Analysis of repeating earthquake families in the cyclical swarms showed that the behavior of the repeaters was consistent with that of the cyclical swarms as a whole and suggested that each family undergoes its own progression of activation to termination. While the FFM analysis identified the system change in mid-June, it did not demonstrate an ability to forecast collapse events or the end of the eruption.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Workshop targets development of geodetic transient detection methods: 2009 SCEC Annual Meeting: Workshop on transient anomalous strain detection; Palm Springs, California, 12-13 September 2009

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is a community of researchers at institutions worldwide working to improve understanding of earthquakes and mitigate earthquake risk. One of SCEC's priority objectives is to “develop a geodetic network processing system that will detect anomalous strain transients.” Given the growing number of continuously recording geodetic networks consisting of hundreds of stations, an automated means for systematically searching data for transient signals, especially in near real time, is critical for network operations, hazard monitoring, and event response. The SCEC Transient Detection Test Exercise began in 2008 to foster an active community of researchers working on this problem, explore promising methods, and combine effective approaches in novel ways. A workshop was held in California to assess what has been learned thus far and discuss areas of focus as the project moves forward.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2009

Landslide movement in southwest Colorado triggered by atmospheric tides

Landslides are among the most hazardous of geological processes, causing thousands of casualties and damage on the order of billions of dollars annually. The movement of most landslides occurs along a discrete shear surface, and is triggered by a reduction in the frictional strength of the surface. Infiltration of water into the landslide from rainfall and snowmelt and ground motion from earthquakes are generally implicated in lowering the frictional strength of this surface. However, solid-Earth and ocean tides have recently been shown to trigger shear sliding in other processes, such as earthquakes and glacial motion. Here we use observations and numerical modelling to show that a similar processatmospheric tidescan trigger movement in an ongoing landslide. The Slumgullion landslide, located in the SanJuan Mountains of Colorado, shows daily movement, primarily during diurnal low tides of the atmosphere. According to our model, the tidal changes in air pressure cause air and water in the sediment pores to flow vertically, altering the frictional stress of the shear surface; upward fluid flow during periods of atmospheric low pressure is most conducive to sliding. We suggest that tidally modulated changes in shear strength may also affect the stability of other landslides, and that the rapid pressure variations associated with some fast-moving storm systems could trigger a similar response. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2016

Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i

Hawai ‘ i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future inundation has been described over the years using various historical events and scenarios. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in Hawai ‘ i, this study documents the variations among 91 coastal communities and 4 counties in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, residents, employees, community-support businesses, dependent-care facilities, public venues, and critical facilities in a composite extreme tsunami-inundation zone associated with two great Aleutian moment magnitude ( M w ) 9.3 and 9.6 earthquake scenarios. These earthquake scenarios are considered to provide the maximum tsunami scenario for the Hawaiian Islands. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, the Hawa i‘i extreme tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 248,749 residents and 91,528 households (18 and 20 percent, respectively, of State totals). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White (47 percent of the total exposed population), Asian (48 percent), or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (29 percent), either alone or in combination with one or more other races (note that race categories do not sum to 100 percent because individuals were able to report multiple races in the 2010 U.S. Census). A total of 50,016 households are renter-occupied, making up 55 percent of total households in the extreme inundation zone. The extreme tsunami-inundation zone contains 18,693 businesses (37 percent of State totals) and 245,827 employees (42 percent of the State labor force). The employee population in the extreme tsunami-inundation zone is largely in the accommodation and food services and retail-trade sectors. Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the extreme tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous community-support businesses (for example, religious organizations and markets), dependent-care facilities (for example, child-day-care facilities and schools), public venues (for example, colleges and entertainment venues), and critical facilities (for example, fire stations and electric companies). Community exposure to tsunamis in Hawai ‘ i varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among the 91 communities and 4 counties, Urban Honolulu has the highest number of people and businesses in the extreme tsunami-inundation zone, and Hanalei has the highest percentages of its people and businesses in this zone. Urban Honolulu has the highest combination of the number and percentage of people, businesses, and facilities in the hazard zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Hawai ‘ i and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal communities and economic sectors of the State of Hawaii.

Hawaii↗