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Evaluation of land subsidence and ground failures at Bicycle Basin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, 1992–2017

Groundwater has been pumped in the Bicycle Basin at Fort Irwin National Training Center since the 1960s, and the amount pumped has generally increased since the 1990s. After a large crack (approximately 0.5-kilometer long) formed at the surface of Bicycle Lake playa during 2005–06 in the area used as an aircraft runway, a monitoring study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center, to help determine the cause. The extent and effect of groundwaterlevel declines and land-surface deformation in Bicycle Basin were evaluated using a number of approaches, including water-level measurements from December 2007 to June 2017, land surveys across the playa area, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analyses, geophysical surveys of the playa area, and numerical experiments to test hypotheses about soil mechanical processes. A specific objective of this study was to evaluate the recent development of ground failures in the form of large, surface cracks that pose a hazard to aircraft operations on the Bicycle Lake playa airstrip. Another large crack and set of interconnected cracks formed at the surface of Bicycle Lake playa in 2013 following a period of inundation similar to that of 2005–06; however, the 2013 cracks formed a network rather than a single feature. Groundwater pumping resulted in more than 27 meters (90 feet) of water-level declines in wells north of the Bicycle Lake playa from 1990 to 2017, and InSAR interferograms indicated more than 400 millimeters (16 inches) of subsidence during 1993–2015. Subsidence rates calculated from InSAR interferograms were variable, temporally and spatially. Results of leveling surveys indicated differential subsidence between 2009 and 2016 along a transect across the playa to the area of maximum subsidence; there was less subsidence south of the 2005–06 crack than north of it. The steepest subsidence gradient for this time was in the area of maximum subsidence. Repeat tape-extensometer measurements from April 2009 to November 2017 across the main-runway crack indicated slight opening along part of the crack. A baseline lidar (light detection and ranging) survey of the main-runway crack was done in January 2009 to track the development of this feature. During the 95-months from January 2009 to December 2016, 0.5 meters (19.7 inches) of subsidence was observed next to the subsidence pit in the crack along the western end of the scanned area, presumably due to erosion and backfilling when the lake was inundated. Standing water in the crack along the eastern end of the scanned area prevented determining change for that part of the crack. Time-series, shaded-relief images show the progression of change in the crack from January 2009 through December 2016, with the crack closing and opening, depending on the time of most recent inundation relative to when the scans were taken. Volumetric changes in the size of the crack, calculated between the sequential lidar surveys, show that from 2009 to 2016, the cumulative volumetric change was 1.5 cubic meters (54 cubic feet). This volume is a minimum estimate because the crack volume below the water surface in the pits was not included in the calculations. Subsurface imaging of the 2005–06 main-runway crack by a series of electrical resistivity tomography surveys in 2008 and 2017 indicated that the crack could extend 5 meters (16 feet) in the subsurface. Electromagnetic induction surveys in 2008, 2014, and 2015 evaluated the technique for ground-failure monitoring and showed that the technique was effective at revealing anomalies correlated with the features of concern in the playa area, such as the 2005–06 crack, numerous ”healed” macropolygon features, and scattered sink-like depressions. Results from numerical experiments simulating watertable decline at depth indicated that the material deposits in the desaturating capillary fringe zone might not be able to transmit large enough stresses up through the overlying soil to cause cracks at the land surface. Results from simulations of desiccation in the presence of a regional tectonically induced stress field, however, tended to support the hypothesis that the combined processes could control the formation of giant desiccation macropolygons in certain areas, such as Bicycle Lake playa.

California↗

Hydrogeology of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system in the northern Midwest, United States with a section on ground-water quality

The Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system contains the most extensive and continuous aquifers in the northern Midwest of the United States. It is the source of water for many municipalities, industries, and rural water users. Since the beginning of ground-water development from the aquifer system in the late 1800's, hydraulic heads have declined hundreds of feet in the heavily pumped Chicago-Milwaukee area and somewhat less in other metropolitan areas. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a regional assessment of this aquifer system within a 161,000-square-mile area encompassing northern Illinois, northwestern Indiana, Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, northern Missouri, and Wisconsin. Consolidated sedimentary rocks in the northern Midwest range in age from Precambrian to Cretaceous and crop out in generally concentric, arcuate patterns, dipping away from structural highs (arches) on the Precambrian basement in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin toward structural lows (basins) to the south and east. The sedimentary bedrock is generally overlain by a veneer of glacial drift. Thickness of the sedimentary sequence increases to about 5,000 feet in the Forest City basin of southwestern Iowa and to about 14,000 and more than 15,000 feet in the Illinois and Michigan basins, respectively. Cambrian and Ordovician age rocks, mainly marine sandstone and carbonate rocks, compose much of the sedimentary sequence and form the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system. The aquifer system lies on the Precambrian basement, regarded as a regional confining unit. Six hydrogeologic units are defined; they are arranged as alternating pairs of an aquifer and an overlying confining. unit. The units are named using the predominant geologic nomenclature of the upper Mississippi Valley, which includes most of the study area. In the southern quarter of the area, the hydrogeologic units consist of equivalent formations of the Ozark area (mostly carbonate rocks). The uppermost part of the aquifer system is the Maquoketa confining unit, which consists of the Maquoketa Shale and the underlying dolomite and shale of the Galena Dolomite and the Decorah, Platteville, and Glenwood Formations. The underlying St. Peter-Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer is an important source of ground water in the western part of the area in Iowa and Minnesota, where the uniform Jordan Sandstone is hydraulically connected to overlying fractured dolomite of the Prairie du Chien Group. The unit is less important in the eastern part of Wisconsin and Illinois because the Jordan Sandstone is absent and the Prairie du Chien Group is thin or absent due to pre-St. Peter Sandstone erosion. Equivalent rocks in northern Missouri-the Roubidoux Formation and the Gasconade and Eminence Dolomites-are mainly carbonate rocks that are somewhat permeable and contain some sandstone. The St. Lawrence and Franconia Formations underlying the St. Peter-Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer consist generally of silty and shaly, fine-grained, poorly sorted, and dolomitic sandstones that restrict vertical movement of ground water and form a regional confining unit. In the southern and eastern parts of the area, the Potosi and Derby-Doerun Dolomites and the upper part of the Davis Formation are the equivalent rocks (mainly carbonate rocks). In the east-central part of the area in Illinois and Wisconsin, the Ironton-Galesville aquifer forms the most important aquifer of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, contributing about one-third of the yield from wells in the aquifer system in the Chicago area. The aquifer terminates to the west, south, and east, where the sandstones grade into less permeable carbonate rocks in central Iowa, central Illinois, and northwestern Indiana, respectively. The underlying Eau Claire Formation and its partial equivalent to the southwest, the Bonneterre Formation, form an important confining unit above the Mount Simon aquifer throughout much of the study area. Siltstone and shale are fairly common in the upper part of the Eau Claire Formation but less so in its northernmost extent in Wisconsin. Dolomite content increases southward and westward, where a middle dolomite facies grades laterally into the Bonneterre in Missouri, southwestern Minnesota, extreme south-central Wisconsin, and possibly in western Iowa. The basal unit in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, the Mount Simon aquifer, is present throughout the study area, except where it is absent over local highs of the Precambrian basement. It consists primarily of the Mount Simon Sandstone in the north and its equivalent in northern Missouri, the Lamotte Sandstone. The underlying Hinckley Sandstone of Precambrian age is included in Minnesota, as is the overlying Elmhurst Sandstone Member of the Eau Claire Formation in northern Illinois. The aquifer increases greatly in thickness and the water is progressively more saline away from the northern structural highs toward the basins. Much of the movement and discharge of ground water in the northern Midwest occurs in local, unconfined, shallow flow systems within a few miles of points of recharge. The rest of the water is semiconfined or confined in intermediate or regional flow systems within the bedrock, where flow is deeper, slower, and traverses much longer distances from recharge areas to discharge areas. The major areas of recharge to regional confined flow are in northwestern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, western, southern, and eastern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. Although the rate of flow is small, significant recharge to the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system also occurs as leakage through the Maquoketa confining unit, where the vertical hydraulic gradient is downward. Ground water in much of the confined aquifer system moves laterally from recharge areas toward the major river valleys and Lake Michigan or down dip toward the structural basins. The longest flow paths extend as much as 400 miles from northwestern Iowa southeast toward the Illinois basin or to the Mississippi River and Missouri River valleys near their confluence. Other major confined flow is from eastern Wisconsin toward the Michigan basin and southward flow from northeastern Illinois toward the Illinois basin. Regional ground-water discharge from the aquifer system is mainly diffuse upward leakage from confined aquifers along flow paths toward the structural basins. Very saline water around and brines within the basins restrict regional flow into the basins, forcing ground water to discharge upward. Water in intermediate flow systems discharges upward to the major river valleys. Original heads of more than 100 feet above land surface were recorded in the aquifer system near Lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin and at Dubuque, Iowa, along the Mississippi River. The Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system was developed rapidly in the late 1800's after the first deep well was drilled in Chicago in 1864. Many flowing wells were not controlled, which caused water levels in deep wells to decline, and many no longer flowed by the early 1900's. Heads in the aquifers have declined very little in most of the recharge or unconfined areas since ground-water withdrawal began, but major declines have occurred in confined areas. The largest declines in head are at Chicago, Illinois, Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Mason City, Iowa, where the aquifer system is confined by the Maquoketa confining unit. The composite head in the aquifer system declined more than 900 feet in the deepest cones of depression in the Chicago area from 1864 to 1980 and about 375 feet in the cone at Milwaukee from 1880 to 1980. More than 200 feet of decline has occurred at Mason City. The head declined as much as 440 feet in Green Bay from 1886 to 1957, when the city discontinued use of its deep wells and began using water from Lake Michigan. The largest centers of pumping are in the Chicago and Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota) metropolitan areas about 180 million gallons per day each in 1980. Pumpage exceeded 10 million gallons per day in only a few other areas in 1980. Ground water in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system in the northern Midwest is characterized by an extreme range of mineralization, but its quality in most of the area is good. The major cations are calcium, magnesium, and sodium, and the major anions are bicarbonate, sulfate, and chloride. Sodium, sulfate, and chloride distributions are closely related to the distribution pattern of dissolved solids but not in the same proportion. Dissolved-solids concentration is generally less than 1,000 milligrams per liter in the recharge areas of Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and north-central Illinois where the aquifer system crops out or subcrops beneath glacial drift. Ground water there is the Ca-Mg-HC03 type, derived from and identical to that in the overlying glacial drift. In northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota, the water in both the glacial drift and the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system is a Ca-Na-S04HC03 type, derived from oxidation of pyrite in the overlying Cretaceous Dakota Formation. Transition to higher dissolved solids in the confined areas commonly is accompanied by increased sulfate concentration and· the occurrence of Ca-Na-S04-type water. Salinity of the ground water increases progressively toward the .basins, where dissolved solids exceed 200,000 milligrams per liter. Saline water is present in the Mount Simon aquifer near Lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin and northeastern Illinois but occurs in successively younger rocks to the east and south as they dip toward the basins. Similarly, salinity increases down dip in Iowa to the southwest and south; however, regional ground-water flow in Iowa is from northwest to southeast. Much of the ground water in the confined aquifer system is isotopically depleted in 0180 and OD with respect to modern precipitation-an indication that the water originated as precipitation in a much colder climate than the present and probably was derived from recharge of glacial meltwater. On the basis of o34S values for sulfur in sulfate, it is believed that isostatic loading from glacial ice over the Michigan basin reversed the hydraulic gradient to trend westward, opposite from the present gradient, causing saline water in the Michigan basin to discharge westward through the present recharge areas. Natural water-quality problems in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system are mainly the high dissolved-solids concentrations and associated high concentrations of sulfate and chloride, which limit the use of the water for municipal and domestic purposes in much of the confined aquifer system in central and southern Illinois, Indiana, southern and western Iowa, and northern Missouri. Another concern is that radium activity exceeds normal background concentrations of a few picocuries per liter in much of the confined aquifer system in eastern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, and central Iowa. Other common problems are high hardness and locally excessive concentrations of iron and hydrogen sulfide.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

Eruptive history of Mount Katmai, Alaska

Mount Katmai has long been recognized for its caldera collapse during the great pyroclastic eruption of 1912 (which vented 10 km away at Novarupta in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes), but little has previously been reported about the geology of the remote ice-clad stratovolcano itself. Over several seasons, we reconnoitered all parts of the edifice and sampled most of the lava flows exposed on its flanks and caldera rim. The precipitous inner walls of the 1912 caldera remain too unstable for systematic sampling; so we provide instead a photographic and interpretive record of the wall sequences exposed. In contrast to the several andesite-dacite stratovolcanoes nearby, products of Mount Katmai range from basalt to rhyolite. Before collapse in 1912, there were two overlapping cones with separate vent complexes and craters; their products are here divided into eight sequences of lava flows, agglutinates, and phreatomagmatic ejecta. Latest Pleistocene and Holocene eruptive units include rhyodacite and rhyolite lava flows along the south rim; a major 22.8-ka rhyolitic plinian fall and ignimbrite deposit; a dacite-andesite zoned scoria fall; a thick sheet of dacite agglutinate that filled a paleocrater and draped the west side of the edifice; unglaciated leveed dacite lava flows on the southeast slope; and the Horseshoe Island dacite dome that extruded on the caldera floor after collapse. Pre-collapse volume of the glaciated Katmai edifice was ∼30 km 3 , and eruptive volume is estimated to have been 57±13 km 3 . The latter figure includes ∼40±6 km 3 for the edifice, 5±2 km 3 for off-edifice dacite pyroclastic deposits, and 12±5 km 3 for the 22.8-ka rhyolitic pyroclastic deposits. To these can be added 13.5 km 3 of magma that erupted at Novarupta in 1912, all or much of which is inferred to have been withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai. The oldest part of the edifice exposed is a basaltic cone, which gave a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau age of 89 ± 25 ka. The seismic record of caldera collapse includes 14 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0–7.0. By combining the times of earthquakes, the hours of downwind plinian-fall episodes from Novarupta, and the stratigraphic record of hydrothermal explosion breccia and phreatic mud layers ejected around the caldera rim and intercalated within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence, it can be inferred that collapse began in the 11th hour of the 60-h-long eruption and continued fitfully for 3.5 days. Several big landslides and pumiceous debris flows shaken loose by the collapse-related seismicity are bracketed in time by their levels of intercalation within the Novarupta pumice-fall sequence. An intracaldera lake was ∼10 m deep by 1916, drained away in 1923, and has since deepened progressively to ∼250 m today. Compositionally, products of Mount Katmai represent an ordinary medium-K arc array, both tholeiitic and calcalkaline, that extends from 51.6% to 72.3% SiO 2 . Values of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr range from 0.70335 to 0.70372, correlating loosely with fractionation indices. The 5–6 km 3 of continuously zoned andesite-dacite magma (58%–68% SiO 2 ) that erupted at Novarupta in 1912 was withdrawn from beneath Mount Katmai and bears close compositional affinity with products of that edifice, not with pre-1912 products of the adjacent Trident cluster. Evidence is presented that the 7–8 km 3 of high-silica rhyolite (77% SiO 2 ) released in 1912 is unlikely to have been stored under Novarupta or Trident. Pre-eruptive contiguity with the andesite-dacite reservoir is suggested by (1) eruption of ∼3 km 3 of rhyolite magma first, followed by mutual mingling in fluctuating proportions; (2) thermal and redox continuity of the whole zoned sequence despite the wide compositional gap; (3) Nd, Sr, O isotopic, and rare earth element (REE) affinities of the whole array; (4) compositional continuity of the nearly aphyric rhyolite with the glass (melt) phase of the phenocryst-rich dacite; and (5) phase-equilibrium experiments that indicate similar shallow pre-eruptive storage depths (3–6 km) for rhyolite, dacite, and andesite.

Alaska↗

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin↗

Gasoline-Related Compounds in Lakes Mead and Mohave, Nevada, 2004-06

The distribution of man-made organic compounds, specifically gasoline-derived compounds, was investigated from 2004 to 2006 in Lakes Mead and Mohave and one of its tributary streams, Las Vegas Wash. Compounds contained in raw gasoline (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes; also known as BTEX compounds) and those produced during combustion of gasoline (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds; also known as PAH compounds) were detected at every site sampled in Lakes Mead and Mohave. Water-quality analyses of samples collected during 2004-06 indicate that motorized watercraft are the major source of these organic compounds to the lakes. Concentrations of BTEX increase as the boating season progresses and decrease to less than detectable levels during the winter when few boats are on the water. Volatilization and microbial degradation most likely are the primary removal mechanisms for BTEX compounds in the lakes. Concentrations of BTEX compounds were highest at sampling points near marinas or popular launching areas. Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) was detected during 2004 but concentrations decreased to less than the detection level during the latter part of the study; most likely due to the removal of MTBE from gasoline purchased in California. Distribution of PAH compounds was similar to that of BTEX compounds, in that, concentrations were highest at popular boating areas and lowest in areas where fewer boats traveled. PAH concentrations were highest at Katherine Landing and North Telephone Cove in Lake Mohave where many personal watercraft with carbureted two-stroke engines ply the waters. Lake-bottom sediment is not a sink for PAH as indicated by the low concentrations detected in sediment samples from both lakes. PAH compounds most likely are removed from the lakes by photochemical degradation. PAH compounds in Las Vegas Wash, which drains the greater Las Vegas metropolitan area, were present in relatively high concentrations in sediment from the upstream reaches. Concentrations of PAH compounds were low in water and sediment samples collected farther downstream, thus the bottom sediment in the upstream part of the wash may be an effective trap for these compounds. Bioavailable PAH compounds were present in all samples as determined using the Fluoroscan method. Microtox acute toxicity profiles indicated that Callville Bay in Lake Mead and the two Lake Mohave sites had only minor evidence that toxic compounds are present.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Projected ground-water development, ground-water levels, and stream-aquifer leakage in the South Fork Solomon River Valley between Webster Reservoir and Waconda Lake, north-central Kansas, 1979-2020

A two-dimensional finite difference computer model was used to project changes in the potentiometric surface, saturated thickness, and stream aquifer leakage in an alluvial aquifer resulting from four instances of projected groundwater development. The alluvial aquifer occurs in the South Fork Solomon River valley between Webster Reservoir and Waconda Lake in north-central Kansas. In the first two projections, pumpage for irrigation was held constant at 1978 rates throughout the projection period (1979-2020). In the second two projections, the 1978 pumpage was progressively increased each yr through 2020. In the second and fourth projections, surface water diversions in the Osborne Irrigation Canal were decreased by 50 %. For the third and fourth projections, each grid-block in the modeled area was classified initially as one of six types according to whether it represented irrigable or nonirrigable land, to its saturated thickness, to its location inside or outside the canal-river area, and to its pumping rate. The projected base-flow rates (leakage from the aquifer to the river) were lower during the irrigation season (June, July, and August) than during the other months of the yr because of the decline in hydraulic head produced by groundwater pumpage. Stream depletion, calculated as a decrease below the average (1970-78) estimated winter base-flow rate of 16.5 cu ft/sec, varied inversely with base flow. For the first two projections, a constant annual cycle of well pumpage and recharge was used throughout the projection period. Aquifer leakage to the river was nearly constant by the mid-to-late 1990's, implying that flow conditions had attained a stabilized annual cycle. The third and fourth projections never attained an annual stabilized cycle because the irrigation pumpage rate was increased each year. By the early 1980's, the hydraulic head had fallen below river stage, reversing the hydraulic gradient at the stream-aquifer interface and resulting in net leakage from the river to the aquifer during the summer months. By the early 1990 's, the projected potentiometric surface of the aquifer was lower than the river stage even during the winter and spring months. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Growth and degradation of Hawaiian volcanoes

The 19 known shield volcanoes of the main Hawaiian Islands—15 now emergent, 3 submerged, and 1 newly born and still submarine—lie at the southeast end of a long-lived hot spot chain. As the Pacific Plate of the Earth’s lithosphere moves slowly northwestward over the Hawaiian hot spot, volcanoes are successively born above it, evolve as they drift away from it, and eventually die and subside beneath the ocean surface. The massive outpouring of lava flows from Hawaiian volcanoes weighs upon the oceanic crust, depressing it by as much as 5 km along an axial Hawaiian Moat. The periphery of subsidence is marked by the surrounding Hawaiian Arch. Subsidence is ongoing throughout almost all of a volcano’s life. During its active life, an idealized Hawaiian volcano passes through four eruptive stages: preshield, shield, postshield, and rejuvenated. Though imperfectly named, these stages match our understanding of the growth history and compositional variation of the Hawaiian volcanoes; the stages reflect variations in the amount and rate of heat supplied to the lithosphere as it overrides the hot spot. Principal growth occurs in the first 1–2 million years as each volcano rises from the sea floor or submarine flank of an adjacent volcano. Volcanic extinction ensues as a volcano moves away from the hot spot. Eruptive-stage boundaries are drawn somewhat arbitrarily because of their transitional nature. Preshield-stage lava is alkalic as a consequence of a nascent magma-transport system and less extensive melting at the periphery of the mantle plume fed by the hot spot. The shield stage is the most productive volcanically, and each Hawaiian volcano erupts an estimated 80–95 percent of its ultimate volume in tholeiitic lavas during this stage. Shield-stage volcanism marks the time when a volcano is near or above the hot spot and its magma supply system is robust. This most active stage may also be the peak time when giant landslides modify the flanks of the volcanoes, although such processes begin earlier and extend later in the life of the volcanoes. Late-shield strata extend the silica range as alkali basalt and even hawaiite lava flows are sparsely interlayered with tholeiite at some volcanoes. Rare are more highly fractionated shield-stage lava flows, which may reach 68 weight percent SiO 2 . Intervolcano compositional differences result mainly from variations in the part of the mantle plume sampled by magmatism and the distribution of magma sources within it. Volcanism wanes gradually as Hawaiian volcanoes move away from the hot spot, passing from the shield stage into the postshield stage. Shallow magma reservoirs (1–7-km depth) of the shield-stage volcanoes cannot be sustained as magma supply lessens, but smaller reservoirs at 20–30-km depth persist. The rate of extrusion diminishes by a factor of 10 late in the shield stage, and the composition of erupted lava becomes more alkalic—albeit erratically—as the degree of melting diminishes. The variation makes this transition, from late shield to postshield, difficult to define rigorously. Of the volcanoes old enough to have seen this transition, eight have postshield strata sufficiently distinct and widespread to map separately. Only two, Ko‘olau and Lāna‘i, lack rocks of postshield composition. Five Hawaiian volcanoes have seen rejuvenated-stage volcanism following quiescent periods that ranged from 2.0 to less than 0.5 million years. The rejuvenated stage can be brief—only one or two eruptive episodes—or notably durable. That on Ni‘ihau lasted from 2.2 to 0.4 million years ago; on Kaua‘i, the stage has been ongoing since 3.5 million years ago. As transitions go, the rejuvenated stage may be thought of as the long tail of alkalic volcanism that begins in late-shield time and persists through the postshield (+rejuvenated-stage) era. Because successive Hawaiian volcanoes erupt over long and overlapping spans of time, there is a wide range in the age of volcanism along the island chain, even though the age of Hawaiian shields is progressively younger to the southeast. For example, almost every island from Ni‘ihau to Hawai‘i had an eruption in the time between 0.3 and 0.4 million years ago, even though only the Island of Hawai‘i had active volcanoes in their shield stage during that time. Once they have formed, Hawaiian volcanoes become subject to a spectrum of processes of degradation. Primary among these are subaerial erosion, landslides, and subsidence. The islands, especially those that grow high above sea level, experience mean annual precipitation that locally exceeds 9 m, leading to rapid erosion that can carve deep canyons in less than 1 million years. Hawaiian volcanoes have also been modified by giant landslides. Seventeen discrete slides that formed in the past 5 m.y. have been identified around the main Hawaiian Islands, and fully 70 are known along the Hawaiian Ridge between Midway Islands and the Island of Hawai‘i. These giant landslides displace large amounts of seawater to generate catastrophic giant waves (megatsunami). The geologic evidence for megatsunami in the Hawaiian Islands includes chaotic coral and lava-clast breccia preserved as high as 155 m above sea level on Lāna‘i and Moloka‘i. Large Hawaiian volcanoes can persist as islands through the rapid subsidence by building upward rapidly enough. But in the long run, subsidence, coupled with surface erosion, erases any volcanic remnant above sea level in about 15 m.y. One consequence of subsidence, in concert with eustatic changes in sea level, is the drowning of coral reefs that drape the submarine flanks of the actively subsiding volcanoes. At least six reefs northwest of the Island of Hawai‘i form a stairstep configuration, the oldest being deepest.

Hawaii↗

Roles of regional structures and country-rock facies in defining mineral belts in central Idaho mineral province with detail for Yellow Pine and Thunder Mountain mining districts

The central Idaho metallogenic province hosts numerous mineral deposit types. These include Late Cretaceous precious-polymetallic vein deposits, amagmatic Paleocene–Eocene breccia-hosted gold-tungsten-antimony deposits, and Eocene mercury deposits in metasedimentary roof pendants and in Late Cretaceous granitoids. Hot-springs gold deposits in Eocene volcanic rocks are also included in the central Idaho province. New sensitive high mass-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) uranium-lead (U-Pb) ages for igneous rocks and for detrital zircon analyses of metasedimentary rocks along with geologic mapping clarify the geologic framework of the mineral deposits. This framework includes (1) structural controls for regional distribution of mining districts, (2) progressive structural development of individual districts, (3) regional sedimentary facies and their control of metals associations resulting in regional belts, and (4) influences of the several regional magmatic events. In central Idaho, 15 mining districts form two clusters that are grouped about a 200-kilometer (km) long system of normal faults. The northwestern cluster is in the regional hanging wall west of large, west-side-down faults, and the mineral deposits are located along smaller faults and fractures that cut the regional hanging wall. The southeastern cluster is in the regional hanging wall east of a linked large east-side-down fault and along and controlled by related hanging wall faults. At the southern extent of the regional fault system, the Yellow Pine-Thunder Mountain districts span a nearly 24-km-wide, east-tilted crustal block of normal-fault dominoes, exposing original crustal depths from 5 to 10 km deep on the west in the Late Cretaceous to shallow-surface depths on the east in the Eocene. Ore deposition in the northwestern district cluster was primarily Late Cretaceous and related to Idaho batholith plutons with only a single deposit related to a small Eocene intrusion; in the southeastern cluster, most deposits were initiated in the Late Cretaceous but with varying manifestations of overprinted Eocene mineralization activity. In the Yellow Pine-Thunder Mountain districts at the southern extent of the southern cluster, several mineralizing pulses occurred during hanging-wall collapse, such that (1) early deposits were multiply overprinted and (2) deposit depths, ages, and structural characteristics change progressively eastward. Originally deep-seated western Yellow Pine district deposits are Late Cretaceous viscoplastic mesothermal veins overprinted by Paleocene and Eocene breccia-hosted epithermal deposits. Central Yellow Pine district deposits contain early deeper vein systems but are primarily Paleocene and Eocene breccia-hosted epithermal deposits in Late Cretaceous plutonic rocks and Proterozoic–Paleozoic roof pendant rocks. Eastern district deposits are Eocene hot-springs-related deposits in the roof pendant. Thunder Mountain deposits farthest east are near-surface hot-springs deposits in Eocene volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks that overlie buried Cretaceous igneous and older roof pendant rocks. The mining district clusters are sited across several northwest-striking paleostratigraphic belts that are exposed in roof pendants and are offset by the regional normal fault system. A northeastern belt is Mesoproterozoic strata associated with gold-silver-copper±cobalt deposits. A central belt of Neoproterozoic rocks is not associated with mineral deposits in the central Idaho mineral province. A southwestern belt composed of probable Paleozoic deep-water miogeoclinal slope rocks and late Paleozoic epicratonic basinal rocks is thin and narrowly exposed but associated with gold-silver-antimony-tungsten±mercury deposits. These metasedimentary rocks (and their metal associations) are parts of regional mineral belts in which metal endowments are related to particular sedimentary facies belts and their Cretaceous thrust-fault juxtaposition and where these features have proximity to Late Cretaceous or Eocene igneous rocks. Offset and preservation or erosional stripping of these facies belts, thrust plates, igneous settings, and the associated regional mineral belts were controlled by the sense and magnitude of displacements across the regional normal-fault system.

Idaho↗

Channel and hillslope processes in a semiarid area, New Mexico

Ephemeral washes having drainage areas from a few acres to 5 square miles are shown by actual measurement to be accumulating sediment on the streambed. This aggradation is not apparent to the eye but is clearly shown in 7 years of annual remeasurement. A similar aggradation was in progress in the same area some 3000 years ago as evidenced by an alluvial terrace later dissected by the present channel system. At that time as well as at present, aggradation occurred even in tributary areas draining a few acres. Colluvial accumulations merge with channel deposits and blanket the valleys and tributary basins even up to a few hundred feet of the drainage divides. The present study concerned the amounts of sediment produced by different erosion processes in various physiographic positions in the drainage basins. Measurements show that by far the largest sediment source is sheet erosion operating on the small percentage of basin area near the basin divides. Mass movement, gully head extension, and channel enlargement are presently small contributors of sediment compared with sheet erosion on unrilled slopes. As in previous studies, not all of the erosion products could be accounted for by accumulations on colluvial slopes and on beds of channels. The discrepancies are attributed primarily to sediment carried completely out of the basins studied and presumably deposited somewhere downstream. Aggradation of alluvial valleys of 5 square miles area and smaller both in the present epicycle, and in prehistorical but post-glacial times in this locality, cannot be attributed to gullying or rill extension in the headwater tributaries but to sheet erosion of the most upstream margins of the basins. Studies of rainfall characteristics of the 7 years of measurement compared with previous years in the 100-year record do not provide a clear-out difference which would account for the presently observed aggradation of channels. Longer period of measurement of erosion and sedimentation will be necessary to identify what precipitation parameters govern whether the channels aggrade or degrade.

Professional Paper↗

Using local monitoring results to inform the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Watershed Model

The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Watershed Model (CBWM) has been used as an accounting tool for the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). However, some of the fundamental parameters that underpin the watershed model may not represent local watershed characteristics at all scales. Significant investments have been made by state and local governments, and other local stakeholders, who are interested in validating loads and progress in implementing measures to achieve the pollutant reductions called for in the TMDL through local monitoring data. For the purposes of this STAC workshop, local monitoring is considered any relevant data collected by a local, regional, state, or federal organization that has not been used previously in the development, calibration, or validation of the CBWM. Some of these local monitoring efforts have been collecting data over the past 5-10 years, with some datasets extending back over more than two decades. However, the data and the CBWM are often not directly comparable due to differences in temporal and spatial scales or because the water quality parameters being monitored are not those estimated by the model. Therefore, a Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) workshop was convened to bring together Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) modelers, local and state government stakeholders, and scientists who are monitoring and analyzing local water quality data to recommend ways in which local monitoring data can be used to inform the CBWM, identify gaps between modeled and monitored data, and validate model predictions at the local scale. The workshop, “Using Local Monitoring Results to Inform the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Watershed Model”, was held in March 2023 to provide insight on the scope of local water quality monitoring efforts within and outside of the Bay watershed that could be used to inform the CBWM. Scientists and managers developed recommendations that could be used by modelers for either calibration or knowledge generation to inform the Phase 7 version of the CBWM currently under development for a 2027 decision by the CBP, recommendations for how local monitoring efforts could be designed or altered to better inform the CBWM, and recommendations for how monitored trends could be used in management. The preliminary presentations for the workshop provided essential background information on the CBWM and data used to parameterize it. This information was the foundation for discussions on existing data gaps, the importance of current local monitoring networks, and best practices for developing future monitoring networks. More information on this STAC-funded effort including workshop presentation slides and recordings can be accessed on the workshop webpage. Confidence in the loading estimates of the CBWM is critical because of its role as the accounting mechanism for measuring progress toward the Bay TMDL’s nutrient and sediment reduction goals. Those who are being asked or required to pay for these reductions, from state and local government managers to farmers, property owners and developers, must have confidence in the scientific validity of the CBWM’s loading estimates or trust in the restoration effort will dissipate. Toward that end, several local entities have invested in extensive urban, suburban, and agricultural monitoring programs to characterize nutrient and sediment loading (among other water quality parameters) at a relatively fine scale (from a few acres to 5 square miles). Monitoring networks outside of the Bay watershed were also included as their relevance and similarities to Bay watershed landscapes, hydrology, and climate conditions can help build the body of knowledge necessary for better parameterization of the CBWM. Local monitoring results could be analyzed for loads and trends for calibration of Phase 7, comparison against trends, informing the structure and parameterization of the model, and potentially in policy evaluation. The effectiveness of management practices at the small watershed scale is a primary question of watershed managers that could be addressed by local monitoring, but to do so study design and statistical techniques may need to be altered if these datasets are intended to inform parameterization of the Bay modeling tools. The partnership would benefit from the redesign of some existing monitoring programs so that they are hypothesis-driven, with fully described inputs, outputs, and practices. New statistical tools could be applied to evaluate the relative importance of various drivers affecting water quality and influenced by hydrogeologic setting and watershed condition.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

Evaluating an improved systems approach to wetland crediting: Consideration of wetland ecosystem services

The Chesapeake Bay Agreement (CBA) has numerous direct goals for improving habitat, living resources, and water quality, conserving lands, engaging communities and addressing a changing climate. To date, the progress toward the wetlands outcome (creation/ restoration of 85,000 acres and enhancement of 150,000 acres) has been very slow and the outcome is projected to be off course for 2025. Two specific confounding issues arise in efforts to achieve the Bay wetlands goal: 1) the idea that restoration is driven, and incentivized and accounted for, in order to meet the TMDL’s water quality (WQ) benefits, leaving habitat benefits undervalued; and 2) there is often tension between competing restoration priorities and financial resources among different Best Management Practice (BMP) types that include wetlands, such as wetland restoration/creation/rehabilitation, stream restoration, and the creation or restoration of forest buffers. The collaborative workshop “ Evaluating an Improved Systems Approach to Wetland Crediting: Consideration of Wetland Ecosystem Services ” was held March 22-23, 2022 to explore the wetland accounting system and provide insight on improved approaches to promote wetland projects toward the wetlands outcome. Four sessions were organized around topics of 1) Accounting, 2) Landscape Systems Approach, 3) Wetlands Projects and Co-Benefits, and 4) Management Implications and Recommendation Development with 21 presentations, Q and A and facilitated discussions. Acknowledgement of the limitations of the current management framework to achieve significant gains in wetland area supports the conclusion that absent significant adaptive management of wetlands efforts, any outcome for net wetlands gains beyond 2025 will be similarly confounded. Workshop findings included suggestions for how to approach restoration projects at a systems level (e.g., creek, shoreline reach, watershed) in order to maximize synergies for multiple ecological outcomes and ecosystem services. Recommendations for improvement on existing efforts, as well as new processes, tools and partnerships are suggested from the workshop’s analysis of the state of the science as considerations to increase implementation of wetlands projects.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Geology and porphyry copper-type alteration-mineralization of igneous rocks at the Christmas Mine, Gila County, Arizona

The Christmas copper deposit, located in southern Gila County, Arizona, is part of the major porphyry copper province of southwestern North America. Although Christmas is known for skarn deposits in Paleozoic carbonate rocks, ore-grade porphyry-type copper mineralization also occurs in a composite granodioritic intrusive complex and adjacent mafic volcanic country rocks. This study considers the nature, distribution, and genesis of alteration-mineralization in the igneous rock environment at Christmas. At the southeast end of the Dripping Spring Mountains, the Pennsylvanian Naco Limestone is unconformably overlain by the Cretaceous Williamson Canyon Volcanics, a westward-thinning sequence of basaltic volcanic breccia and lava flows, and subordinate clastic sedimentary rocks. Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata are intruded by Laramide-age dikes, sills, and small stocks of hornblende andesite porphyry and hornblende rhyodacite porphyry, and the mineralized Christmas intrusive complex. Rocks of the elongate Christmas stock, intruded along an east-northeast-trending fracture zone, are grouped into early, veined quartz diorite (Dark Phase), biotite granodiorite porphyry (Light Phase), and granodiorite; and late, unveined dacite porphyry and granodiorite porphyry. Biotite rhyodacite porphyry dikes extending east and west from the vicinity of the stock are probably coeval with biotite granodiorite porphyry. Accumulated normal displacement of approximately 1 km along the northwest-trending Christmas-Joker fault system has juxtaposed contrasting levels (lower, intrusive-carbonate rock environment and upper, intrusive-volcanic rock environment) within the porphyry copper system. K-Ar age determinations and whole-rock chemical analyses of the major intrusive rock types indicate that Laramide calc-alkaline magmatism and ore deposition at Christmas evolved over an extended period from within the Late Cretaceous (~75-80 m.y. ago) to early Paleocene (~63-61 m.y. ago). The sequence of igneous rocks is progressively more alkaline and silicic from basalt to granodiorite. Early (Stage I) chalcopyrite-bornite (-molybdenite) mineralization and genetically related K-silicate alteration are centered on the Christmas stock. K-silicate alteration is manifested by pervasive hornblende-destructive biotitization in the stock, biotitization of basaltic volcanic wall rocks, and a continuous stockwork of K-feldspar veinlets and quartz-K-feldspar veins in the stock and quartz-sulfide veins in volcanic rocks. Younger (Stage II) pyrite-chalcopyrite mineralization and quartz-sericite-chlorite alteration occur in a zone overlapping with but largely peripheral to the zone of Stage I stockwork veins. Within the Christmas intrusive complex, K-silicate-altered rocks in the central stock are flanked east and west by zones of fracture-controlled quartz-sericite alteration and strong pyritization. In volcanic rocks quartz-chlorite-pyrite-chalcopyrite veins are superimposed on earlier biotitization and crosscut Stage I quartz-sulfide veins. Beyond the zones of quartz-sericite alteration, biotite rhyodacite porphyry dikes contain the propylitic alteration assemblage epidote-chlorite-albite-sphene. Chemical analyses indicate the following changes during pervasive alteration of igneous rocks: (1) addition of Si, K, H, S, and Cu, and loss of Fe 3+ and Ca during intense biotitization of basalt; (2) loss of Na and Ca, increase of Fe3+/Fe2+, and strong H-metasomatism during sericitization of quartz diorite; and (3) increase in Ca, Na, and Fe3+/Fe2+, and loss of K during intense propylitization of biotite rhyodacite porphyry dikes. Thorough biotitization of biotite granodiorite porphyry in the Christmas stock was largely an isochemical process. Fluid-inclusion petrography reveals that Stage I veins are characterized by low to moderate populations of moderate-salinity and gas-rich inclusions, and sparse but ubiquitous halite-bearing inclusions. Moderate-salinity an

Open-File Report↗

A Next Generation Lunar Orbiter mission

The Moon is the scientific foundation for our knowledge of the early evolution and impact history of the terrestrial planets. Over the last decades the lunar science community has made significant progress in addressing key lunar science and exploration goals, while defining many new high-priority scientific questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Moon. On a broad scale, the last Planetary Decadal Survey defined three scientific objectives to guide studies of the inner planets and Moon. These objectives address the origins and diversity of terrestrial planets, the evolution of life on terrestrial planets, and climate processes on Earth-like planets [1]. Many of these objectives carry forward into exploration goals of a renewed lunar human exploration program, and urgently addressing these objectives will enable the rapid development of exploration plans. A large (Flagship or New Frontiers class) Next Generation Lunar Orbiter (NGLO) mission would address the last Planetary Decadal Survey objective of understanding the origin and diversity of terrestrial planets by studying the geochemistry and geology of the Moon at an unparalleled resolution compared to other lunar mission datasets. Also, NGLO would address the objective of studying the evolution of life on terrestrial planets by furthering knowledge about the composition and distribution of volatile elements on the lunar surface and better characterizing the past and present-day impact rates in the inner Solar System in order to better understand the original delivery of water to Earth. Key exploration goals, including identifying the nature and distribution of lunar volatiles (i.e., water, ice), mapping and characterizing potentially valuable lunar resources, and establishing a human presence on the Moon, also would be addressed by NGLO.

Bulletin of the AAS↗

Water-level decline in the Apalachicola River, Florida, from 1954 to 2004, and effects on floodplain habitats

From 1954 to 2004, water levels declined in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River, Florida, as a result of long-term changes in stage-discharge relations. Channel widening and deepening, which occurred throughout much of the river, apparently caused the declines. The period of most rapid channel enlargement began in 1954 and occurred primarily as a gradual erosional process over two to three decades, probably in response to the combined effect of a dam located at the head of the study reach (106 miles upstream from the mouth of the river), river straightening, dredging, and other activities along the river. Widespread recovery has not occurred, but channel conditions in the last decade (1995-2004) have been relatively stable. Future channel changes, if they occur, are expected to be minor. The magnitude and extent of water-level decline attributable to channel changes was determined by comparing pre-dam stage (prior to 1954) and recent stage (1995-2004) in relation to discharge. Long-term stage data for the pre-dam period and recent period from five streamflow gaging stations were related to discharge data from a single gage just downstream from the dam, by using a procedure involving streamflow lag times. The resulting pre-dam and recent stage-discharge relations at the gaging stations were used in combination with low-flow water-surface profile data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to estimate magnitude of water-level decline at closely spaced locations (every 0.1 mile) along the river. The largest water-level declines occurred at the lowest discharges and varied with location along the river. The largest water-level decline, 4.8 feet, which occurred when sediments were scoured from the streambed just downstream from the dam, has been generally known and described previously. This large decline progressively decreased downstream to a magnitude of 1 foot about 40 river miles downstream from the dam, which is the location that probably marks the downstream limit of the influence of the dam on bed scour. Downstream from that location, previously unreported water-level declines progressively increased to 3 feet at a location 68 miles downstream from the dam, probably as a result of various channel modifications conducted in that part of the river. Water-level declines in the river have substantially changed long-term hydrologic conditions in more than 200 miles of off-channel floodplain sloughs, streams, and lakes and in most of the 82,200 acres of floodplain forests in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River. Decreases in duration of floodplain inundation at low discharges were large in the upstream-most 10 miles of the river (20-45 percent) and throughout most of the remaining 75 miles of the nontidal reach (10-25 percent). As a consequence of this decreased inundation, the quantity and quality of floodplain habitats for fish, mussels, and other aquatic organisms have declined, and wetland forests of the floodplain are changing in response to drier conditions. Water-level decline caused by channel change is probably the most serious anthropogenic impact that has occurred so far in the Apalachicola River and floodplain. This decline has been exacerbated by long-term reductions in spring and summer flow, especially during drought periods. Although no trends in total annual flow volumes were detected, long-term decreases in discharge for April, May, July, and August were apparent, and water-level declines during drought conditions resulting from decreased discharge in those 4 months were similar in magnitude to the water-level declines caused by channel changes. The observed changes in seasonal discharge are probably caused by a combination of natural climatic changes and anthropogenic activities in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. Continued research is needed for geomorphic studies to assist in the design of future floodplain restoration efforts and for hydrologic studies to monitor change

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Geology and ground-water resources of the island of Hawaii

Hawaii, the largest island in the Hawaiian group, is 93 miles long, 76 miles wide, and covers 4,030 square miles. Mauna Loa Volcano is 13,680 feet high and Mauna Kea is 13,784 feet high. Plate 1 shows the geology, wells, springs, and water-development tunnels. Plate 2 is a map and description of points of geologic interest along the main highways. Plate 3 (same sheet as plate 2) shows highways and points of geologic interest in Hawaii National Park area. The volcanic terms used in the report are defined. Hawaii was built by five volcanoes. All the rocks are volcanic, except for minor amounts of sedimentary rock derived from them. Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes erupt often; Hualalai Volcano last erupted in 1801; Mauna Kea has had Recent but no historic eruptions; Kohala Mountain has long been extinct. Kohala Mountain constitutes the northern end of the island. It is built largely of rocks of the Pololu volcanic series which are dominantly olivine basalt with a few thin intercalated beds of vitric basaltic ash. After the eruption of this series, Kohala Volcano was deeply eroded on the windward (northeastern) side, and a deep soil formed on its other slopes. Later, oligoclase andesite and trachyte lava flows, named the Hawi volcanic series, were erupted. They rest on soil at the top of the Pololu series, and lie in the valleys cut into the Pololu lavas on the windward slope. Both the Pololu and Hawi volcanics were erupted from three rift zones trending N. 35° W., S. 65° E., and S. 50° W. from the summit of the mountain. The rift zones are marked at the surface by rows or cinder cones, and beneath the surface by innumerable dikes. A caldera occupied the summit of the mountain at the beginning of the eruption of the Hawi lavas, and for a time confined the flows. It was gradually filled and the lava escaped northeastward into the large valleys. Some of the caldera faults can still be traced. A shallow graben indents the summit now. South of Kohala Mountain lies the much larger volcano of Mauna Kea. The early rocks of Mauna Kea constitute the Hamakua volcanic series. The lower member of this series consists chiefly of olivine basalt flows with intercalated thin beds of vitric basaltic ash. The olivine basalt of the lower member changes gradationally into the upper member, in which basalt and olivine basalt arc still abundant, but andesite also is present. Lavas of the upper member interfinger with Hawi lavas of Kohala Mountain. The Hamakua volcanic series is mantled with Pahala ash 5 to 20 feet thick, above which lie the rocks of the Laupahoehoe volcanic series. Locally the two series are separated by erosional unconformity, The Laupahoehoe lavas are dominantly andesite. The andesites erupted after the last glacial epoch are mapped separately on plate 1. The Laupahoehoe volcanic series, and probably also the Hamakua volcanic series, were erupted principally from three rift zones, trending west, northeast and south-southeast from the summit of the mountain. The upper slopes are studded with many large cinder cones, lying principally along the rift zones. Late in its geologic history, Mauna Kea was capped by a small glacier, presumably contemporaneous with the Wisconsin stage of glaciation in North America, which left conspicuous terminal, lateral, and ground moraines. Deposits exposed in canyons on the southern slope, formerly believed to be of glacial origin, are now believed to be volcanic explosion breccias. The main bulk of Hualalai Volcano is built of basalts of the Hualalai volcanic series. One flow of andesite has been found. The cinder and spatter cones lie principally along three rift zones which trend northwest, north, and southeast from the summit. On the northern slope of Hualalai Volcano lies the large trachyte pumice cone of Puu Waawaa, and its thick flow of trachyte. These are grouped together as the Waawaa volcanics. They are partly buried by later basalts from both Hualalai and Mauna Loa. The last eruption of Hualalai Volcano, in 1800–1801, produced olivine basalt. The earliest exposed rocks of Mauna Loa comprise the Ninole volcanic series. Several beds of altered vitric ash are intercalated with the lavas. Following eruption of the Ninole series, a long period or quiescence occurred, during which deep amphitheater-headed valleys were cut. This was followed by the eruption of the Kahuku volcanic series, consisting mostly of lavas with some thin beds of ash. The Rahuku series is overlain by the Pahala ash, which overlies also the Hilina volcanic series on Kilauea, the Hamakua volcanic series on Mauna Kea, and the Hawi volcanic series on Kohala, providing a rough datum for correlation of the lavas of the four mountains. Deposition of the Pahala ash was followed on Mauna Loa by eruption of the Kau volcanic series, which has continued until the present time. The historic and flaws of the Kau series are mapped separately on plate 1. The historic eruptions and volcanic activity of Mauna Loa are briefly described. The western and southern slopes of Mauna Loa are cut by normal faults along which the lower flanks of the mountain have slipped seaward. The Kau volcanic series and presumably also the Kahuku and Ninole volcanic series were erupted principally from vents along two rift zones which extend northeast and southwest from the summit caldera. The lavas of all three series are preponderantly olivine basalt. Many of the lavas contain small amounts of hypersthene. The Pahala ash on the northeastern and eastern slopes of Mauna Loa was derived largely from Mauna Kea. West and south of Kilauea Caldera, however, it was derived principally from Kilauea. Minor amounts were contributed by eruptions of Mauna Loa. It is a vitric basaltic ash, now generally altered to palagonite. The earliest exposed lavas and thin intercalated ash beds of Kilauea Volcano comprise the Hilina volcanic series. These are capped by the Pahala ash, which in turn, is overlain by the lavas and thin ash beds of the Puna volcanic series. The volcanics of both series were erupted along two rift zones, one extending southwestward from Kilauea Caldera, and the other extending southeastward for 5 miles and then bending sharply east by north. The lavas of both series are very largely olivine basalt. A few flows contain hypersthene. Augite phenocrysts are common in Mauna Loa lavas, but rare in those of Kilauea, indicating that crystallization has not progressed as far in the magma chamber of Kilauea Volcano as in that of Mauna Loa. Eruption of the Puna volcanic series has continued until the present time, the historic flows being separated from the prehistoric ones on plate 1. The historic eruptions and volcanic activity of Kilauea are briefly described. Kilauea Volcano originated on the southern slope of Mauna Loa where faults intersected the Eastern Fundamental Fissure of the Hawaiian Archipelago. The southern flank of Kilauea is cut by normal faults, along which the southern part is sliding seaward. The volcanoes of the island of Hawaii are believed to have started their activity in the Tertiary period. The great erosional period which followed deposition of the Pololu and Ninole volcanic series is placed near the end of the Pliocene. The Hilina and Hamakua volcanic series were probably erupted in the late Pliocene and earlier Pleistocene. The Hawi volcanic series and the Waawaa volcanics are probably early or middle Pleistocene in age. The main period of deposition of the Pahala ash was probably late in the middle Pleistocene or early in the upper Pleistocene. The Laupahoehoe volcanic series is late Pleistocene and Recent in age, most of the flows antedating the Wisconsin glaciation. The Hualalai volcanic series probably extends from Tertiary to historic time, and the Kau and Puna volcanic series from late Pleistocene to the present. A chapter is devoted to the petrography of the rocks in which are listed all reliable chemical rock analyses. The rocks of the island are highly permeable. Most of the rainfall sinks quickly into the ground. Perennial streams are present only on the windward slopes of Kohala Mountain and Mauna Kea. Most of the water sinks rapidly to the basal water table, where it floats on salt water according to the Ghyben-Herzberg principle. Basal water escapes in springs at or near sea level all along the coast. Only a very small proportion of it is recovered in wells. Along the windward coasts the basal water is of good quality and large supplies await development. Along the leeward coasts most of the basal water is brackish. In Kohala Mountain, much water is perched on ash beds in the Pololu volcanic series and on ash and soil at the base of the Hawi volcanic series. It escapes in perched springs in the big valleys and along the windward sea cliff and is recovered in tunnels. Along the windward slope of Mauna Keu, small amounts of water are perched by ash beds and dense lava flows in the Hamakua volcanic series. Small perched springs issue from these structures and water is recovered by tunnels. In the Kau District ash beds perch considerable water, which is recovered by many tunnels. On the southern slope of Mauna Kea small springs are perched by beds of hill wash. Dikes in the rift zones are relatively impermeable, but enclose masses of permeable rock. Water is confined at high level in the interdike compartments in Kohala Mountain, and probably in the other volcanoes. It escapes in high-level springs in the deep valleys on Kohala Mountain; some of it is recovered by tunnels. It is estimated that an average of about 13,085 million gallons of water a day falls as rain over the whole island. Of this only about 2.5 percent is visibly discharged from wells, tunnels, and springs. Large supplies of basal groundwater await development. Projects for development of additional water for the city of Hilo and the Kona District are described. Chemical analyses of water, water supplies of towns and villages, descriptions of wells, springs, and tunnels, and discharge records of numerous springs and tunnels are given in tabulated form.

Hawaii↗

Habitat and environment of islands: primary and supplemental island sets

The original intent of the study was to develop a first-order synopsis of island hydrology with an integrated geologic basis on a global scale. As the study progressed, the aim was broadened to provide a framework for subsequent assessments on large regional or global scales of island resources and impacts on those resources that are derived from global changes. Fundamental to the study was the development of a comprehensive framework?a wide range of parameters that describe a set of 'saltwater' islands sufficiently large to Characterize the spatial distribution of the world?s islands; Account for all major archipelagos; Account for almost all oceanically isolated islands, and Account collectively for a very large proportion of the total area of the world?s islands whereby additional islands would only marginally contribute to the representativeness and accountability of the island set. The comprehensive framework, which is referred to as the ?Primary Island Set,? is built on 122 parameters that describe 1,000 islands. To complement the investigations based on the Primary Island Set, two supplemental island sets, Set A?Other Islands (not in the Primary Island Set) and Set B?Lagoonal Atolls, are included in the study. The Primary Island Set, together with the Supplemental Island Sets A and B, provides a framework that can be used in various scientific disciplines for their island-based studies on broad regional or global scales. The study uses an informal, coherent, geophysical organization of the islands that belong to the three island sets. The organization is in the form of a global island chain, which is a particular sequential ordering of the islands referred to as the 'Alisida.' The Alisida was developed through a trial-and-error procedure by seeking to strike a balance between 'minimizing the length of the global chain' and 'maximizing the chain?s geophysical coherence.' The fact that an objective function cannot be minimized and maximized simultaneously indicates that the Alisida is not unique. Global island chains other than the Alisida may better serve disciplines other than those of hydrology and geology.

Professional Paper↗

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗