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USGS2024

Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake

On 5 April 2024, 10:23 a.m. local time, a moment magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck Tewksbury Township, New Jersey, about 65 km west of New York City. Millions of people from Virginia to Maine and beyond felt the ground shaking, resulting in the largest number (>180,000) of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” reports of any earthquake. A team deployed by the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association and the National Institute of Standards and Technology documented structural and nonstructural damage, including substantial damage to a historic masonry building in Lebanon, New Jersey. The USGS National Earthquake Information Center reported a focal depth of about 5 km, consistent with a lack of signal in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data. The focal mechanism solution is strike slip with a substantial thrust component. Neither mechanism’s nodal plane is parallel to the primary northeast trend of geologic discontinuities and mapped faults in the region, including the Ramapo fault. However, many of the relocated aftershocks, for which locations were augmented by temporary seismic deployments, form a cluster that parallels the general northeast trend of the faults. The aftershocks lie near the Tewksbury fault, north of the Ramapo fault.

New Jersey↗
USGS2026

Controls on natural hydrogen generation during serpentinization of mantle rocks

Mantle rocks undergoing serpentinization can generate significant amounts of natural hydrogen, yet the rates and controlling processes remain poorly understood. Here, we constrain the possible hydrogen generation rates in two distinct mantle rock types, the fertile lherzolites of the Western Pyrenees and the depleted harzburgites of Northern California, to relatively low rates of ~0.1 to ~0.5 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹ km⁻³ of reactive rock. When integrated over the full reactive volumes, this corresponds to total production rates of ~300 to ~600 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹. By combining three-dimensional geophysical inversion with numerical modelling of fluid-rock processes, we show that hydrogen generation rates are mainly limited by H₂ saturation in the fluid and reaction kinetics. Under these constraints, hydrogen generation in mantle-derived serpentinization systems proceeds slowly, making rapid large-scale replenishment unlikely and suggesting that large, economically relevant accumulations, would require timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years to develop.

northern California, western Pyrenees↗
USGS2026

A Lake Charr pangenome reveals highly conserved Ohnologs as drivers of phenotypic diversity

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) is hypothesized to spur evolutionary diversification by producing genome-wide duplicate gene sets (Ohnologs) that are initially functionally redundant but can diverge markedly as the effects of relaxed selection accumulate over time. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, in part because genomic studies often reconstruct Ohnolog evolution over millions of years, during which subsequent mutations can obscure deep-time signals. Investigating the relationship between Ohnolog evolution and diversification on a contemporary timescale offers clearer insights. We explore this relationship in Lake Charr ( Salvelinus namaycush ), where ∼10% of genes are retained highly conserved polyploid duplicates following the Salmonid-Specific Fourth Round WGD. Using 31 chromosome-level assemblies of Lake Charr from morphologically and ecologically diverse populations, joined into a pangenome graph, we characterized 189,555 structural variants (SVs) that were significantly less likely to affect genes retained as sequence-conserved Ohnolog pairs, nuancing the hypothesis that gene redundancy, relaxed selection, and functional diversification are intertwined. However, we found that SVs affecting such conserved Ohnologs may be potent drivers of adaptive evolution. Notably, we identified a putative 938-Kb interchromosomal translocation containing 25 genes with highly conserved Ohnologs in a paralogous (but untranslocated) genomic block. This putative translocation appears to have facilitated Ohnolog divergence in ankrd11 and hp , genes putatively linked to craniofacial and lipid metabolic diversity in sympatric Lake Superior morphs. This research reveals that conserved Ohnologs previously presumed to be redundant remain a reservoir for adaptive change.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2025

False positives in the identification of dynamic earthquake triggering

Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with global M ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial-temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 , thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 ), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance.

JGR Solid Earth↗
USGS2026

Development of liquefaction-targeted design basis in U.S. seismic provisions

Seismic design criteria for new buildings in the United States have historically focused on life safety performance objectives through minimizing the potential for structural collapse. Development of design criteria to meet this performance objective has evolved over time, leading to the current, risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE R ) design basis. Corresponding MCE R seismic design loads incorporate the full range of probabilistic ground motion hazard information available from U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models, as well as a representation of the uncertainty in structural collapse capacity. Despite these considerable advances in structural design criteria, guidelines for geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction-induced damage, which continue to be based on uniform ground-shaking hazard (i.e., MCE ground motions), are not well-connected with risk-based, collapse prevention performance objectives. This study, undertaken as part of Building Seismic Safety Council efforts to update recommended seismic provisions through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, presents probabilistic, liquefaction-targeted design objectives and corresponding ground motion parameters, with a focus on improving consistency in first-level screening criteria for liquefaction hazard assessment. This study identifies a potential maximum acceptable annualized probability of liquefaction triggering ( P L,max ) of 2.5% in 50 years, above which liquefaction consequences and potential mitigation measures would be considered. The P L,max -based design basis is calibrated to effective probabilistic liquefaction hazard levels obtained in practice using current MCE peak ground accelerations, and could be implemented via a new liquefaction-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE L ) peak ground acceleration ( PGA L ). The proposed PGA L is derived from probabilistic liquefaction hazard curves and includes uncertainties inherent to liquefaction hazard modeling. The potential design effects of the proposed PGA L are demonstrated via comparison with current MCE PGA levels, effects on first-level liquefaction screening analyses, and improvements in the consistency of P L,max levels across the United States, and for a wide range of site conditions.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Twentieth century extreme precipitation detected in a high-resolution, coastal lake-sediment record from California

California faces increasing economic and societal risks from extreme precipitation and flooding associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) under projected twenty-first century climate warming. Lake sediments can retain signals of past extreme precipitation events, allowing reconstructions beyond the period of instrumental records. Here, we calibrate AR-related extreme precipitation from the last century to proxy data from lake sediments collected in the latitudinal zone of the highest frequency landfall for modern ARs in California. Excursions in erosional proxy data (Ti/Al) are positively and significantly correlated (r median = 0.45, p median = 0.04) with modern records of integrated vapor transport (IVT, kg m −1 s −1 ), a key metric of AR intensity, using correlations that incorporate age-model uncertainty. Despite the land-use change near the study site, the data suggest intense and long-lasting AR storms are identifiable in this sedimentary record. These results allow conservative inferences concerning past extreme hydrology at this site.

California↗
USGS2025

Impact of land subsidence on housing sale values: Evidence from the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study assesses the impact of land subsidence on housing sale values in the San Joaquin Valley, California. The study utilizes home sale transactions and vertical land-surface displacement data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar techniques. Using fine-scale fixed effects, matching, as well as a repeat-sales approach, our results indicate that land subsidence resulted in a 2.4% to 5.8% reduction in housing sale values, with the largest reductions occurring in areas where substantial subsidence occurred. Such findings may have implications for groundwater management and can potentially help inform policy design to help mitigate the causes and impacts of land subsidence.

California↗
USGS2025

Niobium-rich minerals from the Sheep Creek carbonatite-related deposits, Montana, USA

The Sheep Creek area in southwest Montana contains a number of small, tabular, carbonatite-related deposits that are rich in Nb- and REE-minerals. Two of the “vein-dikes” were mined at a small scale for Nb in the late 1950s. The most abundant Nb-bearing minerals are columbite-(Fe), nioboaeschynite-(Ce), baotite, and two varieties of Ti-Nb-Fe-oxide. An early oxide with Ti/Nb (atomic) near unity later broke down to a mixture of columbite + TiO2 with distinctly lower Nb content. Zircon intergrown with the Nb-REE minerals was dated by U-Pb methods to 116±2 Ma. This age is in agreement with previous dating (Th-Pb on monazite, Re-Os on molybdenite), and indicates that the Sheep Creek deposits are early Cretaceous in age.

Montana↗
USGS2026

Velocity-independent dry friction on mica: A realization of ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction

The Amontons-Coulomb friction law assumes that the frictional force between materials is independent of sliding velocity. However, as Coulomb noted, this is a rough approximation, and a second-order dependence of friction on the logarithm of sliding velocity is incorporated in a commonly used ‘rate- and state-dependent’ friction representation. Here we conduct shear experiments on mica, a layer-structured mineral, at temperatures ranging from 25 to 200ºC and under normal stress of 100 MPa. The friction coefficient clearly depends on the logarithmic sliding velocity at 25ºC, but rate sensitivity decreases with increasing temperature until at 200ºC, the friction coefficient is independent of sliding velocity. Our findings could initiate the development of velocity-independent frictional materials, realizing the ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction.

Physical Review Letters↗
USGS2026

Testing characteristic magnitude distributions in modern PSHA models

The characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis predicts a higher rate of large earthquakes than a Gutenberg–Richter extrapolation of the small‐earthquake rate would imply. Characteristic magnitude distributions have been commonly applied to faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and in modern models they can emerge from the way short‐term seismicity constraints are combined with long‐term geologic and geodetic constraints. We test the characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis by comparing the fault‐based magnitude distributions from the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23) in the Western United States with observed seismicity over the past 93 yr. We find that observed magnitude distributions fall outside the model‐predicted confidence bounds in regions where NSHM23 produces characteristic magnitude distributions: in these regions, the model predicts higher rates of large earthquakes than are observed. An analysis of the earlier California model (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3) also reveals discrepancies between the modeled and observed magnitude distributions. In addition, we find that observed magnitude distributions near modeled faults are not significantly different from those in background regions. These results challenge the prevalence of characteristic magnitude distributions in fault‐based seismic hazard models and call for a reassessment of how disparate data sets are integrated in PSHA.

western United States↗
USGS2025

Analysis of the potential effects of Uzbekistan’s mineral endowment on the critical mineral supply of tungsten

Tungsten appears on the 2018 and 2022 U.S. Geological Survey critical mineral lists in part because of a very high global production concentration in China, which produces almost 83 percent of the world’s mined tungsten. Using known parameters and values from other tungsten mining operations, we created hypothetical scenarios in which three tungsten deposits in Uzbekistan are considered for development. Our results show that all three deposits are likely to be economically viable to develop under 2024 market conditions. If the three studied tungsten deposits were put into production, Uzbekistan could become the third-leading tungsten-producing country in the world and increase world output of tungsten by 2.7 percent. Putting these tungsten deposits in Uzbekistan into production could slightly reduce the tungsten global market concentration, therefore reducing the supply disruption potential for tungsten.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1977

Acid-rain weathering of a metasedimentary rock basin, Herkimer County, New York

A geochemical balance of major chemical constituents of precipitation inflow with those of surface-water outflow was used to evaluate the effect of acid rainfall (average pH = 4.3) on weathering rates of metasedimentary rocks underlying a surface-water basin in New York State. Precipitation samples and surface-water samples show that approximately 45 percent of the net cation outflow is due to weathering by precipitation acidity. The remaining 55 percent of the cation load in the outflow is attributed to interactions between atmosphere, rock, and soil water in the unsaturated zone. Comparison of the acidity of acid precipitation and air-equilibrated distilled water suggests that since preindustrial time, precipitation acidity has probably increased weathering rates for this basin approximately 75 percent. The increased acidity of the precipitation may also increase the rate of dissolution of heavy metals from water-piping systems.

New York↗
USGS2025

Horizontal transport of Picture Gorge Basalt magma through the Monument Dike Swarm determined by magnetic fabric

Flood basalts of the mid-Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) cover 210,000 km 2 of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The source of CRBG melt is debated; widely spaced feeder dike swarms can be projected toward hypothetical sources near the Oregon-Idaho border. In this study, we use anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) to track magma flow in the Monument dike swarm (MDS), the feeder dikes of the Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB). This small formation of the main-phase CRBG eruptions allows us to explore in detail the localized dynamics of a large igneous province feeder system, with implications for the larger CRBG picture. We measured the magnetic fabric of 205 oriented paleomagnetic specimens subsampled from 97 samples collected from 15 dikes of the MDS. Thermal demagnetization and hysteresis loops show that the magnetic minerals are a mixture of single domain and multidomain sized titanomagnetites. At three dikes, the paleodepth of sampling was determined to be shallow (<350 m). Magma flowing through dikes has been shown—in most cases— to acquire an anisotropic magnetic fabric with an AMS ellipsoid minimum axis perpendicular to the wall and maximum axis aligned in the direction of flow. Of 15 dikes, 12 show horizontal flow directions in the plane of the dike. Only one dike displayed imbricated fabrics, showing westward flow away from the Oregon-Idaho border. We conclude that magma flow in the MDS was sub-horizontal from a distal source.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Predictions of groundwater PFAS occurrence at drinking water supply depths in the United States

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), known colloquially as “forever chemicals”, have been associated with adverse human health effects and have contaminated drinking water supplies across the United States owing to their long-term and widespread use. People in the United States may unknowingly be drinking water that contains PFAS because of a lack of systematic analysis, particularly in domestic water supplies. We present an extreme gradient boosting model for predicting the occurrence of PFAS in groundwater at the depths of drinking water supply for the conterminous United States. Our model results indicate that 71 to 95 million people in the conterminous United States potentially rely on groundwater with detectable concentrations of PFAS for their drinking-water supplies prior to any treatment.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

An exploration of the relative influence of physical models for Omori’s law

Omori’s law states that the rate of aftershocks decays as a function of inverse time. There are multiple physical explanations that we reduce into a nonlinear mixed effects relation of three terms: (1) a Rate/State expression that can account for static/dynamic and viscoelastic triggering caused directly by the mainshock, (2) a fluid diffusion triggering term, and (3) a randomized secondary triggering (cascade) term. We fit free physical-model parameters to an observed aftershock sequence through two nonlinear regression methods to find the relative contributions of physics-based models in an observed aftershock sequence. Results from both methods show that Rate/State models overpredict aftershock rates by ∼0–30%. Secondary aftershocks cause a net negative contribution (seismicity rate reduction that corrects overprediction by other terms) ranging between ∼0 and 30%. All regression solutions yield negative secondary triggering contributions without being guided to do so. A physical explanation for this is that aftershock occurrence relieves stress from the crust, ultimately causing the sequence to extinguish itself. Fluid diffusion triggering contributions range from ∼0 to 20%. Diffusion processes are observed to be shorter in time than the full duration of an aftershock sequence and they are also spatially limited, diminishing their influence. Our results apply to an aftershock decay curve from the 2016 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, meaning that our specific results may not be general. Our primary conclusion is that any one physical model cannot alone fit the observed sequence as well as the combination of three we investigated.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS1977

Exploratory water well, St. George Island, Florida

A 1,026-foot well was drilled into the Floridan aquifer on St. George Island in search of a supply of water for residential development in 1971. This is the only well on the island on record to have been drilled below 200 feet for water. The well was abandoned; water flowing from the well was saline. It had a specific conductance of 7,500 micromhos per centimeter at 25° Celsius. The specific conductances of samples taken at drilling depths 217-1,026 feet ranged from 3,140 to 39,600, with the maximum value at 470 ft. A composite geophysical and lithologic log of the well shows spontaneous potential, single-point resistance, gamma-ray, neutron, gamma-gamma, and caliper logs. Well-site notes, a written description of cuttings samples, a graph showing the relation of specific conductance of water samples to the depth of the well at time of sampling, and four chemical analyses of the water are included in the report.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Relating glassy rind thicknesses to ambient air temperatures at the Lost Jim flow field in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska

The Lost Jim flow field, in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska, extends west ~34 km from a single vent, crossing subarctic tundra and currently touches several lakes and streams. The weighted mean of five 36Cl cosmogenic exposure ages from the Lost Jim pāhoehoe flow is 7.73 ± 0.37 ka, indicating this eruption occurred substantially after the eruption of the underlying Camille flow, which was emplaced at 39.7 ± 1.3 ka. Paleoclimate records indicate the period when the Lost Jim flow field was emplaced was after deglaciation, and the climate was similar to today. We propose that the emplacement of lava in these cold subarctic conditions can lead to faster cooling of the lava surface compared to lava emplaced in warmer locations such as mid- latitude cold deserts. Glass abundance in the outermost rinds at the Lost Jim flow field was on average 74 % with 6.4 mm thick rims, compared to 60 % with 2.9 mm rims for cold mid-latitude desert samples. We interpret increased glass content as a proxy for rapid cooling likely occurring partly during winter. Glassiness values varied less across vent, margin, and mid-flow locations when compared to the mid-latitude flows suggesting the Lost Jim flow field was broadly impacted by the subarctic climate as opposed to responding to local microclimates. Our results indicate that lava glassiness may be a useful environmental indicator of cooler (in this case subarctic) conditions.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO₂ sequestration offsetting continuous CH₄ emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH₄ chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH₄ emissions rise by ~1.39 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO₂ sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3 kg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO₂-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗