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USGS2012

Reading the climate record of the martian polar layered deposits

The martian polar regions have layered deposits of ice and dust. The stratigraphy of these deposits is exposed within scarps and trough walls and is thought to have formed due to climate variations in the past. Insolation has varied significantly over time and caused dramatic changes in climate, but it has remained unclear whether insolation variations could be linked to the stratigraphic record. We present a model of layer formation based on physical processes that expresses polar deposition rates of ice and dust in terms of insolation. In this model, layer formation is controlled by the insolation record, and dust-rich layers form by two mechanisms: (1) increased summer sublimation during high obliquity, and (2) variations in the polar deposition of dust modulated by obliquity variations. The model is simple, yet physically plausible, and allows for investigations of the climate control of the polar layered deposits (PLD). We compare the model to a stratigraphic column obtained from the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) (Fishbaugh, K.E., Hvidberg, C.S., Byrne, S., Russel, P.S., Herkenhoff, K.E., Winstrup, M., Kirk, R. [2010a]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07201) and show that the model can be tuned to reproduce complex layer sequences. The comparison with observations cannot uniquely constrain the PLD chronology, and it is limited by our interpretation of the observed stratigraphic column as a proxy for NPLD composition. We identified, however, a set of parameters that provides a chronology of the NPLD tied to the insolation record and consistently explains layer formation in accordance with observations of NPLD stratigraphy. This model dates the top 500 m of the NPLD back to ∼1 million years with an average net deposition rate of ice and dust of 0.55 mm a−1. The model stratigraphy contains a quasi-periodic ∼30 m cycle, similar to a previously suggested cycle in brightness profiles from the NPLD (Laskar, J., Levrard, B., Mustard, F. [2002]. Nature, 419, 375–377; Milkovich, S., Head, J.W. [2005]. J. Geophys. Res. 110), but here related to half of the obliquity cycles of 120 and 99 kyr and resulting from a combination of the two layer formation mechanisms. Further investigations of the non-linear insolation control of PLD formation should consider data from other geographical locations and include radar data and other stratigraphic datasets that can constrain the composition and stratigraphy of the NPLD layers.

Icarus↗

USGS2007

Summary of the Ground-Water-Level Hydrologic Conditions in New Jersey 2006

Ground water is one of the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides about 40 percent of our Nation's public water supply. Currently, nearly one-half of New Jersey's drinking-water is supplied by over 300,000 wells that serve more than 4.3 million people (John P. Nawyn, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). New Jersey's population is projected to grow by more than a million people by 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau, accessed March 2, 2006, at http://www.census.gov). As demand for water increases, managing the development and use of the ground-water resource so that the supply can be maintained for an indefinite time without causing unacceptable environmental, economic, or social consequences is of paramount importance. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) New Jersey Water Science Center Observation Well Networks. Record low ground-water levels during water year 2006 (October 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006) are listed, and water levels in six selected water-table observation wells and three selected confined wells are shown in hydrographs. The report describes the trends in water levels in various confined aquifers in southern New Jersey and in water-table and fracture rock aquifers throughout the State. Web site addresses to access the data also are included. The USGS has operated a network of observation wells in New Jersey since 1923 for the purpose of monitoring ground-water-level changes throughout the State. Long-term systematic measurement of water levels in observation wells provides the data needed to evaluate changes in the ground-water resource over time. Records of ground-water levels are used to evaluate the effects of climate changes and water-supply development, to develop ground-water models, and to forecast trends.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2019

Evaluating consumptive and nonconsumptive predator effects on prey density using field times series data

Determining the degree to which predation affects prey abundance in natural communities constitutes a key goal of ecological research. Predators can affect prey through both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs), although the contributions of each mechanism to the density of prey populations remain largely hypothetical in most systems. Common statistical methods applied to time series data cannot elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hypothesized predator effects on prey density (e.g., differentiate CEs from NCEs), nor provide parameters for predictive models. State space models (SSMs) applied to time series data offer a way to meet these goals. Here, we employ SSMs to assess effects of an invasive predatory zooplankter, Bythotrephes longimanus, on an important prey species, Daphnia mendotae, in Lake Michigan. We fit mechanistic models in a SSM framework to seasonal time series (1994-2012) using a recently developed, maximum likelihood-based optimization method, iterated filtering, which can overcome challenges in ecological data (e.g. nonlinearities, measurement error, and irregular sampling intervals). Our results indicate that B. longimanus strongly influences D. mendotae dynamics, with mean annual peak densities of B. longimanus observed in Lake Michigan estimated to cause a 61% reduction in D. mendotae population growth rate and a 59% reduction in peak biomass density. Further, the observed B. longimanus effect is most consistent with an NCE via reduced birth rates. The SSM approach also provided estimates for key biological parameters (e.g., demographic rates) and the contribution of dynamic stochasticity and measurement error. Our study therefore provides evidence derived directly from survey data that the invasive zooplankter B. longimanus is affecting zooplankton demographics and offer parameter estimates needed to inform predictive models that explore the effect of B. longimanus under different scenarios such as climate change.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Food, water quality, and the growth of a freshwater mussel: Implications for population restoration

Unknown causes behind the loss of freshwater mussel populations have prompted population restoration as a tool to recover these imperiled species. However, water quality conditions that support mussel species within natural environments and potential causes of water quality impairment in systems with declining populations are typically unknown and may be critical knowledge needed before reintroducing mussels. Our objective was to relate the growth and survival of declining freshwater mussel populations of the Brook Floater Alasmidonta varicosa (Lamarck, 1819) to water quality parameters within 4 Massachusetts, USA, rivers containing extant populations. We deployed propagated age-1 and age-2 Brook Floater in contained systems (silos) for 1 growing season (June–October). Through biweekly sampling, we tracked the growth and survival of mussels then modeled their relationships with water quality variables. Mussels had a higher growth rate at a higher chlorophyll a ( Chl a ) value (2.82 µg/L) over the temperature range measured (biweekly mean = 16–26°C) when compared with lower Chl a values (0.61 and 1.17 µg/L). Age-1 mussel growth rate was negatively affected by low Chl a concentration (0.61 µg/L) across the temperature range, but age-2 mussel growth rate was not negatively affected until temperatures were above ~22°C. Na + limited the growth rate of mussels, with the rate of change in growth rate for age-1 mussels greater than for age-2 mussels. Other cations (Mg 2+ , K + , and Ca 2+ )—potentially linked to road deicers—also negatively affected growth rate in all 4 rivers but may have had a greater impact on mussels in rivers with reduced growth rates from lower temperatures and Chl a . However, survival was uniformly high across all rivers, indicating water quality parameters may have sublethal but not lethal effects. Additional assessments for chronic water quality stressors along with changing land cover, land management, and climates are important considerations for restoration potential and the long-term persistence of populations.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

Aerial strip-transect surveys: Indexing autumn–winter waterbird abundance and distribution in South Carolina

Aerial surveys integrating probability-based sample designs have been implemented successfully to estimate relative abundance of wintering ducks in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, but these approaches have not been evaluated in the Atlantic Flyway except for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) along the Atlantic coast. Furthermore, these surveys have not been used to index abundance of other nonbreeding waterbirds. Given elimination or reduction of resources allocated to the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in the Atlantic Flyway and elsewhere, the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) expressed a need for reliable surveys to monitor waterfowl and other waterbirds during autumn through winter. We designed stratified aerial strip-transect surveys to estimate population indices for migrating and wintering dabbling ducks (Anatini), diving ducks (Aythini, Mergini, Oxyurini), pelagic and piscivorous waterbirds (Anhingidae, Laridae, Pelicanidae, Phalacrocoracidae), and wading birds (Ardeidae, Ciconiidae, Threskiornithidae) in coastal and inland regions of South Carolina during autumn-winter 2017–2019. We used unequal probability random sampling to estimate population indices with deemed adequate precision (i.e., coefficient of variation [CV] ≤ 20%) and estimated theoretical survey efforts needed to achieve desired precision for future aerial surveys. Indices met our goal for precision in September and January 2018 for wading birds, in February and November 2018 for pelagic waterbirds, and in February 2018 for diving ducks, but never for other ducks during South Carolina waterfowl hunting season. We detected peak abundance of dabbling and diving ducks in January and wading birds and wood storks ( Mycteria americana ) in September. We estimated ~2.5 times greater survey effort was needed across waterbird taxa than was expended to achieve a CV=20%. We also used survey data to depict spatiotemporal variation in waterbird distributions across the study area. Our surveys are applicable for the SCDNR and other agencies seeking to monitor autumn-winter waterbird populations. Although survey refinements are necessary to increase precision in South Carolina, our waterbird indices are useful to assess population trends through time, guide habitat management and restoration efforts, refine local harvest regulations, inform law enforcement to detected illicit activities (e.g., baiting), and monitor possible shifting waterbird distributions in response to land-use and climate change.

South Carolina↗

USGS2008

Increasing eolian dust deposition in the western United States linked to human activity

Mineral aerosols from dust are an important influence on climate and on marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. These aerosols are generated from wind erosion of surface soils. The amount of dust emission can therefore be affected by human activities that alter surface sediments. However, changes in regional- and global-scale dust fluxes following the rapid expansion of human populations and settlements over the past two centuries are not well understood. Here we determine the accumulation rates and geochemical properties of alpine lake sediments from the western interior United States for the past 5,000 years. We find that dust load levels increased by 500% above the late Holocene average following the increased western settlement of the United States during the nineteenth century. We suggest that the increased dust deposition is caused by the expansion of livestock grazing in the early twentieth century. The larger dust flux, which persists into the early twenty-first century, results in a more than fivefold increase in inputs of K, Mg, Ca, N and P to the alpine ecosystems, with implications for surface-water alkalinity, aquatic productivity and terrestrial nutrient cycling.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Global ecological predictors of the soil priming effect

Identifying the global drivers of soil priming is essential to understanding C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We conducted a survey of soils across 86 globally-distributed locations, spanning a wide range of climates, biotic communities, and soil conditions, and evaluated the apparent soil priming effect using 13 C-glucose labeling. Here we show that the magnitude of the positive apparent priming effect (increase in CO 2 release through accelerated microbial biomass turnover) was negatively associated with SOC content and microbial respiration rates. Our statistical modeling suggests that apparent priming effects tend to be negative in more mesic sites associated with higher SOC contents. In contrast, a single-input of labile C causes positive apparent priming effects in more arid locations with low SOC contents. Our results provide solid evidence that SOC content plays a critical role in regulating apparent priming effects, with important implications for the improvement of C cycling models under global change scenarios.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

Diverging fish biodiversity trends in cold and warm rivers and streams

Worldwide, freshwater systems contain more than 18,000 fish species 1,2,3 , which are critical to the functioning of these ecosystems 4 and are vital cultural and economic resources to humans 5,6,7 ; despite this value, fish biodiversity is at risk globally 8,9 . In the USA, leading threats to fish communities in rivers and streams include climate change and invasive fish introductions and game fish stocking by humans 10,11,12,13,14 . Here we harmonized US federal biomonitoring datasets with 389 species spanning 27 years (1993–2019) and 2,992 sites to analyse trends in fish biodiversity. In cold streams (past summer stream temperatures below 15.4 °C), fish abundance and richness declined by 53.4% and 32% over 27 years, respectively, and uniqueness increased. Periodic (large-bodied, late-maturing) fishes increased, and opportunists (small-bodied, short generation time, ‘r-selected’) decreased, possibly due to proliferation of native or introduced game fishes. In warm streams (stream temperatures greater than 23.8 °C), fish abundance and richness increased by 70.5% and 15.6% over 27 years, respectively, and communities homogenized. Small opportunistic fishes replaced large periodic fishes. Intermediate streams (stream temperatures 15.4–23.8 °C), representing the average stream, had minimal changes in fish biodiversity through time. Interactions between warming and introduced fish were associated with increased rates of degradation to local fish biodiversity. Given the magnitude of these changes in a relatively short time span, there is an urgent need to curb degradation of fish biodiversity caused by fish introductions and warming water temperatures.

continental United States↗

USGS2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2013

Vascular plant and vertebrate species richness in national parks of the eastern United States

Given the estimates that species diversity is diminishing at 50-100 times the normal rate, it is critical that we be able to evaluate changes in species richness in order to make informed decisions for conserving species diversity. In this study, we examined the potential of vascular plant species richness to be used as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness in the classes of amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Vascular plants, as primary producers, represent the biotic starting point for ecological community structure and are the logical place to start for understanding vertebrate species associations. We used data collected by the United States (US) National Park Service (NPS) on species presence within parks in the eastern US to estimate simple linear regressions between plant species richness and vertebrate richness. Because environmental factors may also influence species diversity, we performed simple linear regressions of species richness versus natural logarithm of park area, park latitude, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and human population density surrounding the parks. We then combined plant species richness and environmental variables in multiple regressions to determine the variables that remained as significant predictors of vertebrate species richness. As expected, we detected significant relationships between plant species richness and amphibian, bird, and mammal species richness. In some cases, plant species richness was predicted by park area alone. Species richness of mammals was only related to plant species richness. Reptile species richness, on the other hand, was related to plant species richness, park latitude and annual precipitation, while amphibian species richness was related to park latitude, park area, and plant species richness. Thus, plant species richness predicted species richness of different vertebrate groups to varying degrees and should not be used exclusively as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness. Plant species richness should be included with other variables such as area and climate when considering strategies to manage and conserve species in US National Parks. It is not always appropriate to draw conclusions about analyses of taxonomic surrogates from one area to another. Two patterns evident from the linear regressions were the increase in species richness with the increase of park area and with increase of vascular plant species richness. To test whether there were differences in these patterns among networks, we used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Differences among networks were detected only in bird species richness versus plant species richness and for all taxa except mammals for vertebrate species richness versus park area. Some of these results may be due to small sample size among networks, and therefore, low statistical power. Other factors that could have contributed to these results were differences in average park area and habitat heterogeneity among networks, latitudinal gradients, low variation in mean annual precipitation, and different use of vegetation by migratory species. Based on these results we recommend that management of biodiversity be approached from local and site specific criteria rather than applying management directives derived from other regions of the US. It is also recommended that analyses similar to those presented here be conducted for all national parks, once data become available for all networks in the US, to gain a better understanding of how vascular plant species richness, area, and vertebrate species richness are related in the US.

Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/NCR/NCRO/NRT↗

USGS1998

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina, were evaluated as part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Energy, and Georgia Department of Natural Resources. As part of this evaluation: (1) ground-water-level fluctuations and trends in three aquifer systems in sediment of Cretaceous and Tertiary age were described and related to patterns of ground-water use and precipitations; (2) a conceptual model ofthe stream-aquifer flow system was developed; (3) the predevelopment ground-water flow system, configuration of potentiometric surfaces, trans-river flow, and recharge-discharge relations were described; and (4) stream-aquifer relations and the influence of river incision on ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations were described. The 5,147-square mile study area is located in the northern part of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of Georgia and South Carolina. Coastal Plain sediments comprise three aquifer systems consisting of seven aquifers that are separated hydraulically by confining units. The aquifer systems are, in descending order: (1) the Floridan aquifer system—consisting of the Upper Three Runs and Gordon aquifers in sediments of Eocene age; (2) the Dublin aquifer system—consisting of the Millers Pond, upper Dublin, and lower Dublin aquifers in sediments of Paleocene-Late Cretaceous age; and (3) the Midville aquifer system—consisting of the upper Midville and lower Midville aquifers in sediments of Late Cretaceous age. The Upper Three Runs aquifer is the shallowest aquifer and is unconfined to semi-confined throughout most of the study area. Ground-water levels in the Upper Three Runs aquifer respond to a local flow system and are affected mostly by topography and climate. Ground-water flow in the deeper, Gordon aquifer and Dublin and Midville aquifer systems is characterized by local flow near outcrop areas to the north, changing to intermediate flow and then regional flow downdip (southeastward) as the aquifers become more deeply buried. Water levels in these deeper aquifers show a pronounced response to topography and climate in the vicinity of outcrops, and diminish southeastward where the aquifer is more deeply buried. Stream stage and pumpage affect ground-water levels in these deeper aquifers to varying degrees throughout the study area. The geologic characteristics of the Savannah River alluvial valley substantially control the configuration of potentiometric surfaces, ground-water-flow directions, and stream-aquifer relations. Data from 18 shallow borings indicate incision into each aquifer by the paleo Savannah River channel and subsequent infill of permeable alluvium, allowing for direct hydraulic connection between aquifers and the Savannah River along parts of its reach. This hydraulic connection may be the cause of large ground-water discharge to the river near Jackson, S.C., where the Gordon aquifer is in contact with Savannah River alluvium, and also the cause of lows or depressions formed in the potentiometric surfaces of confined aquifers that are in contact with the alluvium. Ground water in these aquifers flows toward the depressions. The influence of the river is diminished downstream where the aquifers are deeply buried, and upstream and downstream ground-water flow is possibly separated by a water divide or "saddle". Water-level data indicate that saddle features probably exist in the Gordon aquifer and Dublin aquifer system, and also might be present in the Midville aquifer system. Ground-water levels respond seasonally or in long term to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumpage, and river stage. Continuous water-level data and water-levels measured in a network of 271 wells during the Spring (May) and Fall (October) in 1992, indicate that seasonal water-level changes generally are less than 4 feet, and that larger changes occur near supply wells. Long-term data (more than 10 years of record) from 283 wells indicate that water levels in most aquifers declined during some period prior to 1993. Although most declines were less than 15 feet and were limited to scattered areas influenced by supply wells, widespread declines of as much as 59 feet occurred in the lower Midville aquifer in Richmond County, Georgia. Water-level data at well-cluster sites indicate that in the vicinity of major ground-water divides, head decreases with depth; and in the vicinity of a regional drain, such as the Savannah River, head increases with depth. Although this vertical head distribution holds true over much of the study area, water-level data indicate that the Gordon, Millers Pond, and lower Dublin aquifers are apparent hydrologic "sinks" in parts of the study area, indicating a potential for vertical leakage from both above and below. Reasons for anomalously low heads in these three aquifers are unclear, but probably are related to: (1) subsurface pinchout of the aquifer, that influences flow patterns in the ground-water flow system, (2) hydraulic connection of the aquifer to river alluvium and associated large ground-water discharge, or (3) water-level declines as a result of pumpage. Estimated average ground-water discharge to the Savannah River based on data from 1941, 1942, and 1949, was 1,220 cubic feet per second; of which 46 percent was from the local flow system, 41 percent was from the intermediate flow system, and 13 percent was from the regional flow system. Estimated ground-water discharge during the 1954 and 1986 droughts indicates that the contribution from the intermediate flow system decreased in a downstream direction, and that most ground-water discharge was from the local flow system. The decreased contribution from the intermediate flow system in downstream reaches may be related to a downdip (downstream) thickening of confining units underlying the stream, that reduces upward leakage of water. Flow lines based on contours of the estimated predevelopment potentiometric surface of the confined Dublin and Midville aquifer systems, suggest ground-water flow beneath the floodplain of the Savannah River from one side of the river to the other side. This phenomenon, termed trans-river flow, is assumed to occur for a short distance into Georgia prior to discharge into the Savannah River alluvial valley. Trans-river flow is influenced by changes in hydraulic gradient (ground-water levels) near the river. Trans-river flow cannot be inferred from contours of the potentiometric surface of the Gordon or Upper Three Runs aquifers.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2011

South Cascade (USA/North Cascades)

The U.S. Geological Survey has closely monitored this temperate mountain glacier since the late 1950s. During 1958-2007, the glacier retreated about 0.7 km and shrank in area from 2.71 to 1.73 km 2 , although part of the area change was due to separation of contributing ice bodies from the main glacier. Maximum and average glacier thicknesses are about 170 and 80 m, respectively. Year-to-year variations of snow accumulation amounts on the glacier are largely attributable to the regional maritime climate and fluctuating climate conditions of the North Pacific Ocean. Long-term-average precipitation is about 4500 mm and most of that falls as snow during October through May. Average annual air temperature at 1,900 m altitude (the approximate ELA 0 ) was estimated to be 1.6°C during 2000-2009. Mass balances are computed yearly by the direct glaciological method. Mass balances measured at selected locations are used in an interpolation and extrapolation procedure that computes the mass balance at each point in the glacier surface altitude grid. The resulting mass balance grid is averaged to obtain glacier mass balances. Additionally, the geodetic method has been applied to compute glacier net balances in 1970, 1975, 1977, 1979-80, and 1985-97. Winter snow accumulation on the glacier during 2007/08 and 2008/09 was larger than the long-term (1959-2009) average. The 2007/08 preliminary summer balance (-3510 mm w.e.) was slightly more negative than the long-term average and this yielded a preliminary 2007/08 net balance (-290 mm w.e.), which was less negative than the average for the period of record (-600 mm w.e.). Summer 2009 was uncommonly warm and the preliminary 2008/09 summer balance (-4980 mm w.e.) was more negative than any on record for the glacier. The 2008/09 glacier net balance (-1860 mm w.e.) was among the 10 most negative for the period of net balance record (1953-2009). Material presented here is preliminary in nature and presented prior to final review. These data and information are provided with the understanding that they are not guaranteed to be correct or complete. Users are cautioned to consider carefully the provisional nature of these data and information before using them for decisions that concern personal or public safety or the conduct of business that involves substantial monetary or operational consequences. Conclusions drawn from, or actions undertaken on the basis of, such data and information are the sole responsibility of the user.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Climate change mitigation potential of Louisiana's coastal area: Current estimates and future projections

Coastal habitats can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As Louisiana implements its climate action plan and the restoration and risk-reduction projects outlined in its 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan, it is critical to consider potential greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in coastal habitats. This study estimated the potential climate mitigation role of existing, converted, and restored coastal habitats for years 2005, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050, which align with the Governor of Louisiana's GHG reduction targets. An analytical framework was developed that considered (1) available scientific data on net ecosystem carbon balance fluxes per habitat and (2) habitat areas projected from modeling efforts used for the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan to estimate the net GHG flux of coastal area. The coastal area was estimated as net GHG sinks of −38.4 ± 10.6 and −43.2 ± 12.0 Tg CO 2 equivalents (CO 2 e) in 2005 and 2020, respectively. The coastal area was projected to remain a net GHG sink in 2025 and 2030, both with and without the implementation of Coastal Master Plan projects (means ranged from −25.3 to −34.2 Tg CO 2 e). By 2050, with model-projected wetland loss and conversion of coastal habitats to open water due to coastal erosion and relative sea level rise, Louisiana's coastal area was projected to become a net source of GHG emissions both with and without the Coastal Master Plan projects. However, in the year 2050, the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan project implementation was projected to avoid the release of +8.8 ± 1.3 Tg CO 2 e compared with an alternative with no action. Reduction in current and future stressors to coastal habitats, including impacts from sea level rise, as well as the implementation of restoration projects could help to ensure coastal areas remain a natural climate solution.

Louisiana↗

USGS2021

Snowpack signals in North American tree rings

Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability in mountain snowpack is limited by the relatively short and strongly temperature forced observational record. Motivated by the urgent need to better understand snowpack dynamics in a long-term, spatially coherent framework, here we examine snow-growth relationships in western North American tree-ring chronologies. We present an extensive network of snow-sensitive proxy data to support high space/time resolution paleosnow reconstruction, quantify and interpret the type and spatial density of snow related signals in tree-ring records, and examine the potential for regional bias in the tree-ring based reconstruction of different snow drought types (dry versus warm). Our results indicate three distinct snow-growth relationships in tree-ring chronologies: moisture-limited snow proxies that include a spring temperature signal, moisture-limited snow proxies lacking a spring temperature signal, and energy-limited snow proxies. Each proxy type is based on distinct physiological tree-growth mechanisms related to topographic and climatic site conditions, and provides unique information on mountain snowpack dynamics that can be capitalized upon within a statistical reconstruction framework. This work provides a platform and foundational background required for the accelerated production of high-quality annually-resolved snowpack reconstructions from regional to high (<12 km) spatial scales in western North America, and by extension, will support an improved understanding of the vulnerability of snowmelt-derived water resources to natural variability and future climate warming.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Inferring tidal wetland stability from channel sediment fluxes: observations and a conceptual model

Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m 2 /yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m 2 /yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.

Maryl↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Fire effects on geomorphic processes

Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Sub-hourly rainfall intensity and burn severity control the magnitude of many post-fire geomorphic process rates through their influence on ground cover and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) make a substantial contribution to the post-fire sediment cascade, transporting sediment from hillslopes to channels, adjacent floodplains and alluvial fans. By the late twenty-first century, PFDF activity is estimated to increase in 68% of areas in which PFDFs have occurred in the past and decrease in only 2% of locations. Once altered by fire, geomorphic state variables — such as infiltration capacity, canopy cover, ground cover and sediment availability — can recover to their pre-fire value or be shifted to a new value. Improved understanding of the factors that influence these post-fire trajectories could support targeted management and intervention strategies. Additionally, monitoring that extends beyond the first 1–3 years after fire and deeper integration of ecohydrological processes into geomorphic models are needed to improve forecasts of post-fire geomorphic responses.

Nature Reviews Earth and Environment↗

USGS2012

The occurrence of trace elements in bed sediment collected from areas of varying land use and potential effects on stream macroinvertebrates in the conterminous western United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, 1992-2000

As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, this study examines the occurrence of nine trace elements in bed sediment of varying mineralogy and land use and assesses the possible effects of these trace elements on aquatic-macroinvertebrate community structure. Samples of bed sediment and macroinvertebrates were collected from 154 streams at sites representative of undeveloped, agricultural, urban, mined, or mixed land-use areas and 12 intermediate-scale ecoregions within the conterminous western United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from 1992 to 2000. The nine trace elements evaluated during this study—arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), and zinc (Zn)—were selected on the basis of potential ecologic significance and availability of sediment-quality guidelines. At most sites, the occurrence of these trace elements in bed sediment was at concentrations consistent with natural geochemical abundance, and the lowest concentrations were in bed-sediment samples collected from streams in undeveloped and agricultural areas. With the exception of Zn at sampling sites influenced by historic mining-related activities, median concentrations of all nine trace elements in bed sediment collected from sites representative of the five general land-use areas were below concentrations predicted to be harmful to aquatic macroinvertebrates. The highest concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, and Zn were in bed sediment collected from mined areas. Median concentrations of Cu and Ni in bed sediment were similarly enriched in areas of mining, urban, and mixed land use. Concentrations of Cr and Ni appear to originate largely from geologic sources, especially in the western coastal states (California, Oregon, and Washington), Alaska, and Hawaii. In these areas, naturally high concentrations of Cr and Ni can exceed concentrations that may adversely affect aquatic macroinvertebrates. Generally, Hg concentrations were below the sediment-quality guideline for this trace element but appeared elevated in urbanized areas and at sites contaminated by historic mining practices. Lastly, although there was no distinctive pattern in Se concentrations with land use, median bed-sediment concentrations were slightly elevated in urbanized areas. Macroinvertebrate community structure was influenced by topographic, geologic, climatic, and in-stream characteristics. To account for inherent distribution patterns resulting from these influences, samples of macroinvertebrates were stratified by ecoregion to assess the influence of trace elements on community structure. Cumulative toxic units (CTUs) were used to evaluate gradients in trace-element concentrations in mixture. Correlation analyses among the trace elements under different land-use conditions indicate that trace-element mixtures vary among bed sediment and can have a marked influence on CTU composition. Macroinvertebrate response to bed-sediment trace-element exposure was evident only at the most highly contaminated sites, notably at sites classified as contaminated by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) as a result of historic mining activities. Results of this study agree with the findings of other studies evaluating trace-element exposure to in-stream macroinvertebrate community structure in that generally lower richness metrics and taxa dominance occur in streams where high trace-element enrichment occurs; however, not all streams in all areas have the same characterizing taxa. In the mountain and xeric ecosystems, the mayfly, Baetis sp.; the Diptera, Simulium sp.; caddisflies in the family Hydropsychiidae; midges in the family Orthocladiinae; and the worms belonging to Turbellaria and Naididae all demonstrated resilience to trace-element exposure and, in some cases, possible changes in physical habitat within stream ecosystems. The taxa characteristics within the Ozark Highland ecoregion were different than other ecoregions as evidenced by generally more diverse mayfly populations. In addition, Baetis sp. was common and dominated many of the mayfly populations found in the Rocky Mountain streams within the Mountain Southern Rockies and Mountain Northern Rockies ecoregions; however, within the Ozark Highland ecoregion, Tricorythodes sp. appeared to be more common than Baetis sp.

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawai'i, Id↗