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Origin of Bermuda's clay-rich Quaternary paleosols and their paleoclimatic significance

Red clayey paleosols that are chiefly the product of aerosolic dust deposition are interbedded in the Quaternary carbonate formations of the Bermuda oceanic island system. These paleosols provide a basis for reconstructing Quaternary atmospheric circulation patterns in the northwestern Atlantic. Geochemical analyses were performed on representative paleosol samples to identify their parent dust source. Fine-grained fractions were analyzed by energy-dispersive X ray fluorescence to determine trace element (Zr, Y, La, Ti, and Nb) concentrations and to derive geochemical signatures based on immobile element ratios. These ratios were compared with geochemical signatures determined for three possible sources of airborne dust: (1) Great Plains loess, (2) Mississippi River Valley loess, and (3) Saharan dust. The Zr/Y and Zr/La ratios provided the clearest distinction between the hypothesized dust sources. The low ratios in the paleosol B horizons most closely resemble Saharan dust in the <2-μm size class fraction. Contributions from the two North American loessial source areas could not be clearly detected. Thus Bermuda paleosols have a predominantly Saharan aerosolic dust signature. Saharan dust deposition on Bermuda during successive Quaternary glacial periods is consistent with patterns of general circulation models, which indicate that during glacial maxima the northeast summer trade winds were stronger than at present and reached latitudes higher than 30°N despite lower-than-present sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Large-scale variability of wind erosion mass flux rates at Owens Lake 1. Vertical profiles of horizontal mass fluxes of wind-eroded particles with diameter greater than 50 μm

A field experiment at Owens (dry) Lake, California, tested whether and how the relative profiles of airborne horizontal mass fluxes for >50-&mu;m wind-eroded particles changed with friction velocity. The horizontal mass flux at almost all measured heights increased proportionally to the cube of friction velocity above an apparent threshold friction velocity for all sediment tested and increased with height except at one coarse-sand site where the relative horizontal mass flux profile did not change with friction velocity. Size distributions for long-time-averaged horizontal mass flux samples showed a saltation layer from the surface to a height between 30 and 50 cm, above which suspended particles dominate. Measurements from a large dust source area on a line parallel to the wind showed that even though the saltation flux reached equilibrium &sim;650 m downwind of the starting point of erosion, weakly suspended particles were still input into the atmosphere 1567 m downwind of the starting point; thus the saltating fraction of the total mass flux decreased after 650 m. The scale length difference and ratio of 70/30 suspended mass flux to saltation mass flux at the farthest down wind sampling site confirm that suspended particles are very important for mass budgets in large source areas and that saltation mass flux can be a variable fraction of total horizontal mass flux for soils with a substantial fraction of <100-&mu;m particles.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Winter CO2 fluxes in a boreal forest

We measured soil respiration during two winters in three different ecotypes of the BOREAS northern study area. The production of CO 2 was continuous throughout the winter and, when totaled for the winter of 1994–1995, was equivalent to the release of ∼40–55 g C/m 2 from the soil surface. As soils cooled in the early winter, the CO 2 production rate decreased in a manner that appeared to be exponentially related to shallow soil temperatures. This exponential relationship was not observed when soils began to warm, possibly indicating that there may be additional or different processes responsible for increased CO 2 production during winter warming events. We also measured CO 2 concentrations in soil gas and the Δ 14 C of the soil CO 2 . These measurements show that the CO 2 produced in winter is not simply the return to the atmosphere of the carbon fixed during the previous growing season. We suggest that the wintertime production of CO 2 originates, at least in part, from the decomposition of old organic carbon stored at depth in the soil.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Land cover mapping, fire regeneration, and scaling studies in the Canadian boreal forest with 1 km AVHRR and Landsat TM data

A multitemporal 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. The land cover classification was developed by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). Quantitative areal proportions of the major boreal forest components were determined for a 821 km ?? 619 km region, ranging from the southern grasslands-boreal forest ecotone to the northern boreal transitional forest. The boreal wetlands (mostly lowland black spruce, tamarack, mosses, fens, and bogs) occupied approximately 33% of the region, while lakes accounted for another 13%. Upland mixed coniferous-deciduous forests represented 23% of the ecosystem. A SW-NE productivity gradient across the region is manifested by three levels of tree stand density for both the boreal wetland conifer and the mixed forest classes, which are generally aligned with isopleths of regional growing degree days. Approximately 30% of the region was directly affected by fire disturbance within the preceding 30-35 years, especially in the Canadian Shield Zone where large fire-regeneration patterns contribute to the heterogeneous boreal landscape. Intercomparisons with land cover classifications derived from 30-m Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data provided important insights into the relative accuracy of the 1 km AVHRR land cover classification. Primarily due to the multitemporal NDVI image compositing process, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes have an effective spatial resolution in the 3-4 km range; therefore fens, bogs, small water bodies, and small patches of dry jack pine cannot be resolved within the wet conifer mosaic. Major differences in the 1-km AVHRR and 30-m Landsat TM-derived land cover classes are most likely due to differences in the spatial resolution of the data sets. In general, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes are vegetation mosaics consisting of mixed combinations of the Landsat classes. Detailed mapping of the global boreal forest with this approach will benefit from algorithms for cloud screening and to atmospherically correct reflectance data for both aerosol and water vapor effects. We believe that this 1 km AVHRR land cover analysis provides new and useful information for regional water, energy, carbon, and trace gases studies in BOREAS, especially given the significant spatial variability in land cover type and associated biophysical land cover parameters (e.g., albedo, leaf area index, FPAR, and surface roughness). Multiresolution land cover comparisons (30 m, 1 km, and 100 km grid cells) also illustrated how heterogeneous landscape patterns are represented in land cover maps with differing spatial scales and provided insights on the requirements and challenges for parameterizing landscape heterogeneity as part of land surface process research.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Moss and soil contributions to the annual net carbon flux of a maturing boreal forest

We used input and decomposition data from 14 C studies of soils to determine rates of vertical accumulation of moss combined with carbon storage inventories on a sequence of burns to model how carbon accumulates in soils and moss after a stand-killing fire. We used soil drainage—moss associations and soil drainage maps of the old black spruce (OBS) site at the BOREAS northern study area (NSA) to areally weight the contributions of each moderately well drained, feathermoss areas; poorly drained sphagnum—feathermoss areas; and very poorly drained brown moss areas to the carbon storage and flux at the OBS NSA site. On this very old (117 years) complex of black spruce, sphagnum bog veneer, and fen systems we conclude that these systems are likely sequestering 0.01–0.03 kg C m −2 yr −1 at OBS-NSA today. Soil drainage in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba, controls carbon storage and flux by controlling moss input and decomposition rates and by controlling through fire the amount and quality of carbon left after burning. On poorly drained soils rich in sphagnum moss, net accumulation and long-term storage of carbon is higher than on better drained soils colonized by feathermosses. The carbon flux of these contrasting ecosystems is best characterized by soil drainage class and stand age, where stands recently burned are net sources of CO 2 , and maturing stands become increasingly stronger sinks of atmospheric CO 2 . This approach to measuring carbon storage and flux presents a method of scaling to larger areas using soil drainage, moss cover, and stand age information.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Sulfur dioxide and particles in quiescent volcanic plumes from Poás, Arenal, and Colima Volcanos, Costa Rica and Mexico

Measurements of SO 2 emission rates and concentrations and of particle distribution, size, shape, and composition were made in quiescent volcanic plumes emitted into the troposphere from Poás and Arenal volcanos, Costa Rica, and Colima volcano, Mexico. SO 2 emission rates were 700±180 metric tons per day (t/d) for Poás, 210±30 t/d for Arenal, and 320±50 t/d for Colima. The concentrations of SO 2 calculated from the COSPEC/lidar data were 5–380 ppb. Concentrations of SO 2 measured directly by flame photometry were 10–250 ppb. Particles collected in the plumes with a quartz crystal microbalance impactor were mostly less than 3 μm in diameter and consisted of droplets of dilute sulfur-bearing solutions and minor amounts of larger silicate particles coated with a sulfur-bearing film or crust. Total particle concentrations were 4.7 μg/m 3 for Poás and 18.8 μg/m 3 for Colima. Comparison of concentrations of SO 2 in the plumes with gas samples collected at fumaroles on the ground suggests that the plumes are diluted by the atmosphere by factors of up to 10 5 .

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres↗

Methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the USA

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here we estimate methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB), north-eastern Pennsylvania, and the Principal aquifers of the USA using the average concentrations of methane in groundwater and annual groundwater pumping volumes. High average methane concentrations, 44.1 mg/L, and extensive groundwater pumping, ~3.1 x 1011 L/a in the LAB, result in the annual emission of ~2.9 x 10-3 Tg of microbial methane. Ethane emissions in the LAB were 3.5 x 10-6 Tg/a. Lower methane emissions estimated for NE Pennsylvania, ~3.0 x 10-8 Tg/a, reflect lower methane concentrations and groundwater pumping, 0.7 mg/L and 4.67 x 107 L/a, respectively. Methane concentrations and groundwater withdrawals, 1.06 x 1014 L, across the USA enabled the estimation of the total emissions of methane from Principal aquifers (92% of total pumping) of 0.044 Tg/a in the year 2000, which represents a small percentage (~0.2%) of the total annual US methane emissions, but a previously unquantified flux in the global methane budget. Globally, groundwater-pumping methane emissions were estimated to be 0.53 Tg/a, 0.2% of global methane emissions, by adopting a global estimate for groundwater extraction, and an average methane concentration in older groundwater of 0.44 mg/L.

Climate and Atmospheric Science↗

Establishing the moon as a spectral radiance standard

A new automated observatory dedicated to the radiometry of the moon has been constructed to provide new radiance information for calibration of earth-orbiting imaging instruments, particularly Earth Observing System instruments. Instrumentation includes an imaging photometer with 4.5-in. resolution on a fully digital mount and a full-aperture radiance calibration source. Interference filters within 0.35–0.95 µm correspond to standard stellar magnitude systems, accommodate wavelengths of lunar spectral contrast, and approximate some band-passes of planned earth-orbiting instruments (ASTER, Landsat-7 ETM, MISR, MODIS, and SeaWIFS). The same equipment is used for lunar and stellar observations, with the use of an aperture stop in lunar imaging to comply with Nyquist's theorem and lengthen exposure times to avoid scintillation effects. A typical robotic night run involves observation of about 60 photometric standard stars and the moon; about 10 of the standard stars are observed repeatedly to determine atmospheric extinction, and the moon is observed several times. Observations are to be made on every photometric night during the bright half of the month for at least 4.5 years to adequately cover phase and libration variation. Each lunar image is reduced to absolute exoatmospheric radiance and reprojected to a fixed selenographic grid system. The collection of these images at various liberators and phase angles will be reduced to photometric models for each of the approximately 120 000 points in the lunar grid for each filter. Radiance models of the moon can then be produced for the precise geometry of an orbiting instrument observation. Expected errors are under 1% relative and 2.5% absolute. A second telescope operating from 1.0 to 2.5 µm is planned.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology↗

Satellite-derived aerosol radiative forcing from the 2004 British Columbia wildfires

The British Columbia wildfires of 2004 was one of the largest wildfire events in the last ten years in Canada. Both the shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) are investigated using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Relationships between the radiative forcing fluxes (??F) and wildfire aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 0.55 ??m (??0.55) are deduced for both noontime instantaneous forcing and diurnally averaged forcing. The noontime averaged instantaneous shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA are 45.8??27.5 W m-2 and -12.6??6.9 W m-2, respectively for a selected study area between 62??N and 68??N in latitude and 125??W and 145??W in longitude over three mainly clear-sky days (23-25 June). The derived diurnally averaged smoke aerosol shortwave radiative forcing is 19.9??12.1 W m-2 for a mean ??0.55 of 1.88??0.71 over the same time period. The derived ??F-?? relationship can be implemented in the radiation scheme used in regional climate models to assess the effect of wildfire aerosols.

Atmosphere - Ocean↗

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

Monoterpenes are an important class of biogenic hydrocarbons that influence ambient air quality and are a principle source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Emitted from vegetation, monoterpenes are a product of photosynthesis and act as a response to a variety of environmental factors. Most parameterizations of monoterpene emissions are based on clear weather models that do not take into account episodic conditions that can drastically change production and release rates into the atmosphere. Here, the monoterpene dataset from the rural Thompson Farm measurement site in Durham, New Hampshire is examined in the context of a set of known severe storm events. While some storm systems had a negligible influence on ambient monoterpene mixing ratios, the average storm event increased mixing ratios by 0.59 ± 0.21 ppbv, a factor of 93% above pre-storm levels. In some events, mixing ratios reached the 10's of ppbv range and persisted overnight. These mixing ratios correspond to increases in the monoterpene emission rate, ranging from 120 to 1240 g km −2 h −1 compared to an estimated clear weather rate of 116 to 193 g km −2 h −1 . Considering the regularity of storm events over most forested areas, this could be an important factor to consider when modeling global monoterpene emissions and their resulting influence on the formation of organic aerosols.

New Hampshire↗

Adjusting particle-size distributions to account for aggregation in tephra-deposit model forecasts

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. Model accuracy is limited by the fact that fine-ash aggregates (clumps into clusters), thus altering patterns of deposition. In most models this is accounted for by ad hoc changes to model input, representing fine ash as aggregates with density ρ agg , and a log-normal size distribution with median μ agg and standard deviation σ agg . Optimal values may vary between eruptions. To test the variance, we used the Ash3d tephra model to simulate four deposits: 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens; 16–17 September 1992 Crater Peak (Mount Spurr); 17 June 1996 Ruapehu; and 23 March 2009 Mount Redoubt. In 192 simulations, we systematically varied μ agg and σ agg , holding ρ agg constant at 600 kg m −3 . We evaluated the fit using three indices that compare modeled versus measured (1) mass load at sample locations; (2) mass load versus distance along the dispersal axis; and (3) isomass area. For all deposits, under these inputs, the best-fit value of μ agg ranged narrowly between ∼ 2.3 and 2.7 φ (0.20–0.15 mm), despite large variations in erupted mass (0.25–50 Tg), plume height (8.5–25 km), mass fraction of fine ( < 0.063 mm) ash (3–59 %), atmospheric temperature, and water content between these eruptions. This close agreement suggests that aggregation may be treated as a discrete process that is insensitive to eruptive style or magnitude. This result offers the potential for a simple, computationally efficient parameterization scheme for use in operational model forecasts. Further research may indicate whether this narrow range also reflects physical constraints on processes in the evolving cloud.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics↗

Enhancement of the volcanogenic "bromine explosion" via reactive nitrogen chemistry (Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i)

Since the first detection of bromine monoxide in volcanic plumes attention has focused on the atmospheric synthesis and impact of volcanogenic reactive halogens. We report here new measurements of BrO in the volcanic plume emitted from Kīlauea volcano – the first time reactive halogens have been observed in emissions from a hotspot volcano. Observations were carried out by ground-based Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy in 2007 and 2008 at Pu'u' O ' o crater, and at the 2008 magmatic vent that opened within Halema'uma'u crater. BrO was readily detected in the Halema'uma'u plume (average column amount of 3×1015 molec cm −2 ) and its abundance was strongly correlated with that of SO 2 . However, anticorrelation between NO 2 and SO 2 (and BrO) abundances in the same plume strongly suggest an active role of NO x in reactive halogen chemistry. The calculated SO 2 /BrO molar ratio of ~1600 is comparable to observations at other volcanoes, although the BrO mixing ratio is roughly double that observed elsewhere. While BrO was not observed in the Pu'u' O ' o plume this was probably merely a result of the detection limit of our measurements and based on understanding of the Summit and East Rift magmatic system we expect reactive halogens to be formed also in the Pu'u' O ' o emissions. If this is correct then based on the long term SO 2 flux from Pu'u' O ' o we calculate that Kīlauea emits ~480 Mg yr −1 of reactive bromine and may thus represent an important source to the tropical Pacific troposphere.

Hawaii↗

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

Monoterpenes are an important class of biogenic hydrocarbons that influence ambient air quality and are a principle source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Emitted from vegetation, monoterpenes are a product of photosynthesis and act as a response to a variety of environmental factors. Most parameterizations of monoterpene emissions are based on clear weather models that do not take into account episodic conditions that can drastically change production and release rates into the atmosphere. Here, the monoterpene dataset from the rural Thompson Farm measurement site in Durham, New Hampshire is examined in the context of a set of known severe storm events. While some storm systems had a negligible influence on ambient monoterpene mixing ratios, the average storm event increased mixing ratios by 0.59 ± 0.21 ppbv, a factor of 93 % above pre-storm levels. In some events, mixing ratios reached the 10’s of ppbv range and persisted overnight. These mixing ratios correspond to increases in the monoterpene emission rate, ranging from 120 to 1240 g km−2 h −1 compared to an estimated clear weather rate of 116 to 193 g km−2 h −1 . Considering the regularity of storm events over most forested areas, this could be an important factor to consider when modeling global monoterpene emissions and their resulting influence on the formation of organic aerosols.

New Hampshire↗

On the absolute calibration of SO 2 cameras

Sulphur dioxide emission rate measurements are an important tool for volcanic monitoring and eruption risk assessment. The SO 2 camera technique remotely measures volcanic emissions by analysing the ultraviolet absorption of SO 2 in a narrow spectral window between 300 and 320 nm using solar radiation scattered in the atmosphere. The SO 2 absorption is selectively detected by mounting band-pass interference filters in front of a two-dimensional, UV-sensitive CCD detector. One important step for correct SO 2 emission rate measurements that can be compared with other measurement techniques is a correct calibration. This requires conversion from the measured optical density to the desired SO 2 column density (CD). The conversion factor is most commonly determined by inserting quartz cells (cuvettes) with known amounts of SO 2 into the light path. Another calibration method uses an additional narrow field-of-view Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy system (NFOVDOAS), which measures the column density simultaneously in a small area of the camera’s field-of-view. This procedure combines the very good spatial and temporal resolution of the SO 2 camera technique with the more accurate column densities obtainable from DOAS measurements. This work investigates the uncertainty of results gained through the two commonly used, but quite different, calibration methods (DOAS and calibration cells). Measurements with three different instruments, an SO 2 camera, a NFOVDOAS system and an Imaging DOAS (I-DOAS), are presented. We compare the calibration-cell approach with the calibration from the NFOV-DOAS system. The respective results are compared with measurements from an I-DOAS to verify the calibration curve over the spatial extent of the image. The results show that calibration cells, while working fine in some cases, can lead to an overestimation of the SO 2 CD by up to 60% compared with CDs from the DOAS measurements. Besides these errors of calibration, radiative transfer effects (e.g. light dilution, multiple scattering) can significantly influence the results of both instrument types. The measurements presented in this work were taken at Popocatepetl, Mexico, between 1 March 2011 and 4 March 2011. Average SO 2 emission rates between 4.00 and 14.34 kg s −1 were observed.

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques↗

Trends in nutrients

The roles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as key nutrients determining the trophic status of water bodies are examined, and evidence reviewed for trends in concentrations of N and P species which occur in freshwaters, primarily in northern temperate environments. Data are reported for water bodies undergoing eutrophication and acidification, especially water bodies receiving increased nitrogen inputs through the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NO x ). Nutrient loading on groundwaters and surface freshwaters is assessed with respect to causes and rates of change, relative rates of change for N and P, and implications of change for the future management of lakes, rivers and groundwaters. In particular, the nature and emphasis of studies for N species and P fractions in lakes versus rivers and groundwaters are contrasted. This review paper primarily focuses on results from North America and Europe, particularly for the UK where a wide range of data sets exists. Few nutrient loading data have been published on water bodies in less developed countries; however, some of the available data are presented to provide a global perspective. In general, N and P concentrations have increased dramatically (>20 times background concentrations) in many areas and causes vary considerably, ranging from urbanization to changes in agricultural practices.

Hydrological Processes↗

Controls on surface water chemistry in the upper Merced River basin, Yosemite National Park, California

Surface water draining granitic bedrock in Yosemite National Park exhibits considerable variability in chemical composition, despite the relative homogeneity of bedrock chemistry. Other geological factors, including the jointing and distribution of glacial till, appear to exert strong controls on water composition. Chemical data from three surface water surveys in the upper Merced River basin conducted in August 1981, June 1988 and August 1991 were analysed and compared with mapped geological, hydrological and topographic features to identify the solute sources and processes that control water chemistry within the basin during baseflow. Water at most of the sampling sites was dilute, with alkalinities ranging from 26 to 77 μequiv. l −1 . Alkalinity was much higher in two subcatchments, however, ranging from 51 to 302 μequiv. l −1 . Base cations and silica were also significantly higher in these two catchments than in the rest of the watershed. Concentrations of weathering products in surface water were correlated to the fraction of each subcatchment underlain by surficial material, which is mostly glacial till. Silicate mineral weathering is the dominant control on concentrations of alkalinity, silica and base cations, and ratios of these constituents in surface water reflect the composition of local bedrock. Chloride concentrations in surface water samples varied widely, ranging from <1 to 96 μequiv. l −1 . The annual volume-weighted mean chloride concentration in the Merced River at the Happy Isles gauge from 1968 to 1990 was 26 μequiv. l −1 , which was five times higher than in atmospheric deposition (4–5 μequiv. l −1 ), suggesting that a source of chloride exists within the watershed. Saline groundwater springs, whose locations are probably controlled by vertical jointing in the bedrock, are the most likely source of the chloride. Sulphate concentrations varied much less than most other solutes, ranging from 3 to 14 μequiv. l −1 . Concentrations of sulphate in quarterly samples collected at the watershed outlet also showed relatively little variation, suggesting that sulphate may be regulated to some extent by a within-watershed process, such as sulphate adsorption.

Hydrological Processes↗

Use of geochemical mass balance modelling to evaluate the role of weathering in determining stream chemistry in five mid-Atlantic watersheds on different lithologies

The importance of mineral weathering was assessed and compared for five mid-Atlantic watersheds receiving similar atmospheric inputs but underlain by differing bedrock. Annual solute mass balances and volume-weighted mean solute concentrations were calculated for each watershed for each year of record. In addition, primary and secondary mineralogy were determined for each of the watersheds through analysis of soil samples and thin sections using petrographic, scanning electron microscope, electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction techniques. Mineralogical data were also compiled from the literature. These data were input to NETPATH, a geochemical program that calculates the masses of minerals that react with precipitation to produce stream water chemistry. The feasibilities of the weathering scenarios calculated by NETPATH were evaluated based on relative abundances and reactivities of minerals in the watershed. In watersheds underlain by reactive bedrocks, weathering reactions explained the stream base cation loading. In the acid-sensitive watersheds on unreactive bedrock, calculated weathering scenarios were not consistent with the abundance of reactive minerals in the underlying bedrock, and alternative sources of base cations are discussed.

Hydrological Processes↗

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO 2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity.

Hydrological Processes↗