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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model

Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, that provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike-slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can impact hazard both from a site perspective and on a regional scale, increasing shaking off the end of the fault trace up to 30--40\% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period (>ls) near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10--20\%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations, to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2024

Empirical ground-motion basin response in the California Great Valley, Reno, Nevada, and Portland, Oregon

We assess how well the Next-Generation Attenuation-West 2 (NGA-West2) ground-motion models (GMMs), which are used in the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for crustal faults in the western United States, predict the observed basin response in the Great Valley of California, the Reno basin in Nevada, and Portland and Tualatin basins in Oregon. These GMMs rely on site parameters such as the time-averaged shear-wave velocity ( V S ) in the upper 30 m of Earth’s crust ( V S30 ) and depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear-wave isosurfaces ( Z 1.0 and Z 2.5 ) to capture basin effects and were developed using observations and simulations primarily from the Los Angeles region in southern California. Using ground-motion records from mostly small-to-moderate earthquakes and mixed-effects regression analysis, we find that the GMMs perform well with our local basin-depth models for the California Great Valley. With our local basin-depth models for Reno, the GMMs do not perform as well for this relatively shallow basin and exhibit little sensitivity to the basin parameters used in the NGA-West2 GMMs. We also find good performance for the local Z 1.0 model across the Portland region, whereas the local Z 2.5 model provides little predictive power except at sites in the deepest part of the Tualatin basin. Additional work could improve the performance of the site and basin terms in the NGA-West2 GMMs for regions with geologic structure different than the deep basins in southern California and the Great Valley. In addition, we find significant discrepancies among the GMMs in how the uncertainty in the ground motion varies with basin depth and pseudospectral period. Our results can help guide seismic hazard analyses on whether to include these local basin-depth models.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2008

Rapid Assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding

The Pacific Northwest in the United States including Seattle, Washington, experienced unusually heavy rainfall in the winters of 1995/1996 and 1996/1997, which caused numerous landslides. Following these two winters, the City of Seattle resolved to reduce future landslide losses within its jurisdiction. By coincidence, in 1997 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a five-year project designed to increase scientific understanding of all the natural hazards facing the Seattle area, including landslides. This article documents the convergence of the efforts of the City of Seattle, the State of Washington, and the USGS to understand the landslide hazards facing the Seattle area and to implement hazard reduction and mitigation of damage from landslides. Specifically, this article identifies how and where USGS information on landslide hazards fit in with efforts already undertaken by the City. This combined effort enabled the City of Seattle to understand its landslide hazards, to formulate public policy, to educate its citizens, and to coordinate the activities of the numerous departments under its jurisdiction with the ultimate goal of lessening the impact of landslides. The City used USGS maps and reports to guide decisions that prioritized funds for siting, maintaining and constructing public facilities in addition to meeting Washington State laws that mandated growth management and environmental review.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Seismotectonic analysis of the 2019–2020 Puerto Rico sequence: The value of absolute earthquake relocations in improved interpretations of active tectonics

We present a new catalog of calibrated earthquake relocations from the 2019–2020 Puerto Rico earthquake sequence related to the 7 January 2020 M w 6.4 earthquake that occurred offshore of southwest Puerto Rico at a depth of 15.9 km. Utilizing these relocated earthquakes and associated moment tensor solutions, we can delineate several distinct fault systems that were activated during the sequence and show that the M w 6.4 mainshock may have resulted from positive changes in Coulomb stress from earlier events. Seismicity and mechanisms define (1) a west–southwest (∼260°) zone of seismicity comprised of largely sinistral strike‐slip and oblique‐slip earthquakes that mostly occurs later in the sequence and to the west of the mainshock, (2) an area of extensional faulting that includes the mainshock and occurs largely within the mainshock’s rupture area, and (3) an north–northeast (∼30°)‐striking zone of seismicity, consisting primarily of dextral strike‐slip events that occurs before and following the mainshock and generally above (shallower than) the normal‐faulting events. These linear features intersect within the M w 6.4 mainshock’s fault plane in southwest Puerto Rico. In addition, we show that earthquake relocations for M 4+ normal‐faulting events, when traced along their fault planes, daylight along east–west‐trending bathymetric features offshore of southwest Puerto Rico. Correlation of these normal‐faulting events with bathymetric features suggests an active fault system that may be a contributor to previously uncharacterized seismic hazards in southwest Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2022

Viscoelastic fault-based model of crustal deformation for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

The 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard (NSHM) model is informed by several deformation models that furnish geodetically estimated fault slip rates. Here I describe a fault‐based model that permits estimation of long‐term slip rates on discrete faults and the distribution of off‐fault moment release. It is based on quantification of the earthquake cycle on a viscoelastic model of the seismogenic upper crust and ductile lower crust and mantle. I apply it to a large dataset of horizontal and vertical Global Positioning System (GPS) interseismic velocities in the western United States, resulting in long‐term slip rates on more than 1000 active faults defined for the NSHM. A reasonable fit to the GPS dataset is achieved with a set of slip rates designed to lie strictly within a priori geologic slip rate bounds. Time‐dependent effects implemented via a “ghost transient” have a profound effect on slip rate estimation and tend to raise calculated slip rates along the northern and southern San Andreas fault by up to several mm/yr.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2023

Rapid surface rupture mapping from satellite data: The 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence

The 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence produced > 500 km of surface rupture primarily on the left‐lateral East Anatolian (~345 km) and Çardak (~175 km) faults. Constraining the length and magnitude of surface displacement on the causative faults is critical for loss estimates, recovery efforts, rapid identification of impacted infrastructure, and fault displacement hazard analysis. To support these efforts, we rapidly mapped the surface rupture from satellite data with support from remote sensing and field teams, and released the results to the public in near‐real time. Detailed surface rupture mapping commenced on 7 February and continued as high‐resolution (< 1.0 m/pixel) optical images from WorldView satellites (2023 Maxar) became available. We interpreted the initial simplified rupture trace from subpixel offset fields derived from Advanced Land Observation Satellite2 and Sentinel‐1A synthetic aperture radar image pairs available on 8 and 10 February, respectively. The mapping was released publicly on 10 February, with frequent updates, and published in final form four months postearthquake ( Reitman, Briggs, et al. , 2023 ). This publicly available, rapid mapping helped guide fieldwork and constrained U.S. Geological Survey finite‐fault and loss estimate models, as well as stress change estimates and dynamic rupture models.

Kahramanmaraş↗
USGS2021

Hazard-consistent seismic losses and collapse capacities for light-frame wood buildings in California and Cascadia

We evaluate the seismic performance of modern seismically designed wood light-frame (WLF) buildings, considering regional seismic hazard characteristics that influence ground motion duration and frequency content and, thus, seismic risk. Results show that WLF building response correlates strongly with ground motion spectral shape but weakly with duration. Due to the flatter spectral shape of ground motions from subduction events, WLF buildings at sites affected by these earthquakes may experience double the economic losses for a given intensity of shaking, and collapse capacities may be reduced by up to 50%, compared to those at sites affected by crustal earthquakes. These differences could motivate significant increases in design values at sites affected by subduction earthquakes to achieve the uniform risk targets of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 standard.

Alaska, California, Oregon Washington↗
USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Paleoseismology and neotectonics of the Shivwits section of the Hurricane Fault, northwestern Arizona

The Shivwits section of the Hurricane Fault in northwestern Arizona has been largely ignored in evaluating the seismic hazard posed to the rapidly growing populations of southwestern Utah. To assess this hazard, we conducted studies along the Shivwits section using field observations and geomorphic modeling to understand the Quaternary tectonism of this portion of the Hurricane Fault. We have found evidence that it ruptured with up to 2 to 3 m of vertical displacement per event and likely produced ???M 7 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the slip rate along the southern Hurricane Fault has not decreased during the Quaternary. The Moriah Knoll basalt, offset 150 to 200 m along the Hurricane Fault, yielded a maximum long-term slip rate of 0.15 to 0.25 mm/yr, estimated using a new 40Ar/39Ar age of 0.85 ?? 0.06 Ma. The late Quaternary slip rates on alluvial fan surfaces offset 2 to 7.4 m were estimated using pedogenic carbonate rind thickness as a calibrated proxy for age. These observations yielded slip rates of ??? 0.05 to 0.3 mm/yr. Paleoseismic trench investigations showed that two surface-rupturing events occurred in the past 15-78 k.y. A radiocarbon sample from a most-recent event (MRE) fissure yielded a calibrated age of 8900-10,400 years B.P.; the penultimate event was likely ??? 10 k.y. before the most recent event. Slip-rate estimates using the Moriah Knoll basalt (???0. 15-0.24 mm/yr; 850 ka), surface offset (???0.05-0.3 mm/yr; < 100 ka), morphologic modeling (??? 0.06-0.21 mm/yr; <100 ka), and observations from the trench (??? 0.06-0.34 mm/yr; 15-75 ka) suggest that there has been no detectable change in slip rate in the past 1 million years or so. This implies a constant deformation rate for this portion of the Colorado Plateau Margin; therefore, Basin and Range extension is actively encroaching.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2017

Field-trip guide to Mount Hood, Oregon, highlighting eruptive history and hazards

This guidebook describes stops of interest for a geological field trip around Mount Hood volcano. It was developed for the 2017 International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly in Portland, Oregon. The intent of this guidebook and accompanying contributions is to provide an overview of Mount Hood, including its chief geologic processes, magmatic system, eruptive history, local tectonics, and hazards, by visiting a variety of readily accessible localities. We also describe coeval, largely monogenetic, volcanoes in the region. Accompanying the field-trip guidebook are separately authored contributions that discuss in detail the Mount Hood magmatic system and its products and behavior (Kent and Koleszar, this volume); Mount Hood earthquakes and their relation to regional tectonics and the volcanic system (Thelen and Moran, this volume); and young surface faults cutting the broader Mount Hood area whose extent has come to light after acquisition of regional light detection and ranging coverage (Madin and others, this volume). The trip makes an approximately 175-mile (280-kilometer) clockwise loop around Mount Hood, starting and ending in Portland. The route heads east on Interstate 84 through the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area. The guidebook points out only a few conspicuous features of note in the gorge, but many other guides to the gorge are available. The route continues south on the Mount Hood National Scenic Byway on Oregon Route 35 following Hood River, and returns to Portland on U.S. Highway 26 following Sandy River. The route traverses rocks as old as the early Miocene Eagle Creek Formation and overlying Columbia River Basalt Group of middle Miocene age, but chiefly lava flows and clastic products of arc volcanism of late Miocene to Holocene age.

Oregon↗
USGS2004

Development of regional liquefaction-induced deformation hazard maps

This paper describes part of a project to assess the feasibility of producing regional (1:24,000-scale) liquefaction hazard maps that are based-on potential liquefaction-induced deformation. The study area is the central Santa Clara Valley, at the south end of San Francisco Bay in Central California. The information collected and used includes: a) detailed Quaternary geological mapping, b) over 650 geotechnical borings, c) probabilistic earthquake shaking information, and d) ground-water levels. Predictions of strain can be made using either empirical formulations or numerical simulations. In this project lateral spread displacements are estimated and new empirical relations to estimate future volumetric and shear strain are used. Geotechnical boring data to are used to: (a) develop isopach maps showing the thickness of sediment thatis likely to liquefy and deform under earthquake shaking; and (b) assess the variability in engineering properties within and between geologic map units. Preliminary results reveal that late Holocene deposits are likely to experience the greatest liquefaction-induced strains, while Holocene and late Pleistocene deposits are likely to experience significantly less horizontal and vertical strain in future earthquakes. Development of maps based on these analyses is feasible.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2003

Site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and wave propagation at the San Jose, California, dense seismic array

Ground-motion records from a 52-element dense seismic array near San Jose, California, are analyzed to obtain site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and plane-wave propagation characteristics. The array, located on the eastern side of the Santa Clara Valley south of the San Francisco Bay, is sited over the Evergreen basin, a 7-km-deep depression with Miocene and younger deposits. Site response values below 4 Hz are up to a factor of 2 greater when larger, regional records are included in the analysis, due to strong surface-wave development within the Santa Clara Valley. The pattern of site amplification is the same, however, with local or regional events. Site amplification increases away from the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley, reaching a maximum over the western edge of the Evergreen basin, where the pre-Cenozoic basement shallows rapidly. Amplification then decreases further to the west. This pattern may be caused by lower shallow shear-wave velocities and thicker Quaternary deposits further from the edge of the Santa Clara Valley and generation/trapping of surface waves above the shallowing basement of the western Evergreen basin. Shear-wave velocities from the inversion of site response spectra based on smaller, local earthquakes compare well with those obtained independently from our seismic reflection/refraction measurements. Velocities from the inversion of site spectra that include larger, regional records do not compare well with these measurements. A mix of local and regional events, however, is appropriate for determination of site response to be used in seismic hazard evaluation, since large damaging events would excite both body and surface waves with a wide range in ray parameters. Frequency-wavenumber, plane-wave analysis is used to determine the backazimuth and apparent velocity of coherent phases at the array. Conventional, high-resolution, and multiple signal characterization f-k power spectra and stacked slowness power spectra are compared. These spectra show surface waves generated/ scattered at the edges of the Santa Clara Valley and possibly within the valley at the western edge of the Evergreen basin.

California↗
USGS2019

Where was the 31 October 1895, Charleston, Missouri Earthquake?

We revisit the magnitude and location of the 31 October 1895 Charleston, Missouri earthquake, which is widely regarded to be the last M W 6 or greater earthquake in the central United States. Although a recent study (Bakun et al., 2003) concluded that this earthquake was located in southern Illinois, over 100 km north of the traditionally inferred location near Charleston, Missouri, our analysis of exhaustively compiled macroseismic data supports the traditionally inferred location, with a preferred magnitude of M W ≈ 5.8, and preferred range of 5.4 to 6.1. Our preferred magnitude is derived from comparisons with intensity distributions from the 1925 M W = 6.2 Charlevoix, the 1944 M W = 5.8 Massena, and the 1968 M W = 5.3 southern Illinois earthquakes, which we also revisited in this study. Based on the distribution of liquefaction, reports of damage, and early aftershocks, we also explore possible rupture scenarios for the 1895 earthquake. Our preferred scenario involves unilateral rupture to the northeast on a (reactivated) northeast-striking fault (or faults) coinciding with structures associated with the western limb of the Reelfoot Rift, with an epicenter south-southeast of Charleston, Missouri. Our results support the conclusion that, within the Reelfoot Rift, elevated seismic hazard is not restricted to the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) as conventionally defined but continues into the Charleston region in southeastern Missouri where faults associated with the western edge of the Reelfoot Rift appear favorably oriented for failure in the current stress regime.

Missouri↗
USGS2012

Environmental and medical geochemistry in urban disaster response and preparedness

History abounds with accounts of cities that were destroyed or significantly damaged by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildland–urban wildfires, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, urban firestorms, terrorist attacks, and armed conflicts. Burgeoning megacities place ever more people in the way of harm from future disasters. In addition to the physical damage, casualties, and injuries they cause, sudden urban disasters can also release into the environment large volumes of potentially hazardous materials. Environmental and medical geochemistry investigations help us to (1) understand the sources and environmental behavior of disaster materials, (2) assess potential threats the materials pose to the urban environment and health of urban populations, (3) develop strategies for their cleanup/disposal, and (4) anticipate and mitigate potential environmental and health effects from future urban disasters.

Elements↗
USGS2004

The Cottage Lake aeromagnetic lineament: A possible onshore extension of the southern Whidbey Island fault, Washington

The northwest-striking southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF) was mapped previously using borehole data and potential-field anomalies on Whidbey Island and marine seismic surveys beneath surrounding waterways. Abrupt subsidence at a coastal marsh on south-central Whidbey Island suggests that the SWIF experienced a MW 6.5 to 7.0 earthquake about 3000 years ago. Southeast of Whidbey Island, a hypothesized southeastward projection of the SWIF would make landfall between the cities of Seattle and Everett. As part of systematic, ongoing studies by the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Washington, and other earth science organizations to evaluate potentially active faults and other earth hazards throughout the Puget Lowland, we test this hypothesis using aeromagnetic, lidar, and borehole data. Linear, northwest-striking magnetic anomalies traversing the mainland region project southeastward toward the communities of Woodinville and Maltby, Washington. All of these magnetic anomalies are low in amplitude and best illuminated in residual magnetic fields. The most prominent of the residual magnetic anomalies extends at least 16 km, lies approximately on strike with the SWIF on Whidbey Island, and passes near Crystal and Cottage Lakes, about 27 km southeast of downtown Everett. In places, this magnetic anomaly is associated with topographic lineaments, but spectral analysis indicates that the source of the anomaly extends to depths greater than 2 km and cannot be explained entirely by topographic effects. The Alderwood #1 oil exploration well located on strike with the Cottage Lake aeromagnetic lineament shows evidence of deformation over a total depth range of 3000 m; some beds within this interval exhibit intense fracturing and shearing, although deformation within the well can only be constrained as post-early Oligocene and pre-Pleistocene. Boreholes acquired as part of a wastewater tunnel project show evidence of soil disturbance at locations where some topographic and aeromagnetic lineaments cross the tunnel alignment. Some of the disturbance is likely tectonic in origin, although other explanations are possible. Some of the soil disturbance demonstrably predates the 15-13 ka Fraser glaciation of the Puget Lowland; other samples have inconclusive ages and may be younger. Subtle scarps in Pleistocene surfaces are visible on high-resolution lidar topography at a number of locations along the Cottage Lake aeromagnetic lineament. Collectively, the scarps are parallel to the trend of the aeromagnetic lineament and extend a total distance of 18 km. In the field, scarps exhibit 1 to 5 m of north-side-up offset. The scarps provide targets for future paleoseismic trenching studies to test the hypothesis that they have a tectonic origin.

Washington↗
USGS2022

U.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop

In early October of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held a virtual workshop to discuss Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains site-response models. Earthquake researchers came together to assess (1) research related to proposed Coastal Plains amplification models and (2) USGS plans for implementing these models. Presentations spanned a broad range of topics from Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains geophysical properties including seismic velocity and attenuation, to ground motion amplification models and their impacts on seismic hazard. Interspersed with these presentations were discussions regarding the definition and extent of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, potential complexities of wave propagation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, and problems that need to be overcome to implement various proposed site-response models. Based on feedback from this workshop, the USGS working group on Coastal Plain Amplification is considering applying published models that depend on sediment thickness. The working group is also exploring potential application of models that depend on the length of path traversed across the Coastal Plain, including the Gulf Coastal Plain ground-motion model adjustments from the Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for the Eastern United States.

Gulf and Atlantic Coast Plains↗
USGS1985

The effects of ground water, slope stability, and seismic hazard on the stability of the South Fork Castle Creek blockage in the Mount St. Helens area, Washington

A slope stability analysis on the South Fork Castle Creek debris avalanche blockage, near Mount St. Helens, Washington, was conducted to determine the likelihood of mass failure of the blockage and resultant breakout of South Fork Castle Creek Lake. On the basis of material properties, groundwater levels, and seismic history of the blockage, slope stability with and without earthquake-induced forces was determined. Results indicated that the blockage will not fail from gravitational forces at September 1983 groundwater levels. An increase of 25 feet or more in water levels could cause local failures, but massive failure of the blockage is improbable. Blockage slopes are potentially unstable for present and higher water levels if an earthquake with magnitude greater than 6.0 should occur. Retrogressive slope failures are possible, but lowering of the blockage crest below lake level and consequent lake breakout are considered remote. Significant earthquake shaking could cause cracks in the blockage that might facilitate piping.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide synthetic seismicity simulations

The generation of seismicity catalogs on synthetic fault networks holds the promise of providing key inputs into probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis, for example, the coefficient of variation, mean recurrence time as a function of magnitude, the probability of fault-to-fault ruptures, and conditional probabilities for foreshock–mainshock triggering. I employ a seismicity simulator that includes the following ingredients: static stress transfer, viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle, and vertical stratification of elastic and viscoelastic material properties. A cascade mechanism combined with a simple Coulomb failure criterion is used to determine the initiation, propagation, and termination of synthetic ruptures. It is employed on a 3D fault network provided by Steve Ward (unpublished data, 2009) for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group. This all-California fault network, initially consisting of 8000 patches, each of ∼12 square kilometers in size, has been rediscretized into Graphic patches, each of ∼1 square kilometer in size, in order to simulate the evolution of California seismicity and crustal stress at magnitude M∼5–8. Resulting synthetic seismicity catalogs spanning 30,000 yr and about one-half million events are evaluated with magnitude-frequency and magnitude-area statistics. For a priori choices of fault-slip rates and mean stress drops, I explore the sensitivity of various constructs on input parameters, particularly mantle viscosity. Slip maps obtained for the southern San Andreas fault show that the ability of segment boundaries to inhibit slip across the boundaries (e.g., to prevent multisegment ruptures) is systematically affected by mantle viscosity.

California↗