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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources

USGS1996

Rheology of water ices V and VI

We have measured the mechanical strength (σ) of pure water ices V and VI under steady state deformation conditions. Constant displacement rate compressional tests were conducted in a gas apparatus at confining pressures from 400 < P < 800 MPa, temperatures from 209 < T < 270 K, and strain rates 7 × 10 −7 < < 7 × 10 −4 s −1 . Most of the results fit to an empirical flow law of the form = A σ n exp {−( E * + PV *)/ RT }, where the four material constants A , n , E *, and V * are (for in inverse seconds and P and σ in megapascals) 10 23.0 , 6.0, 136 kJ/mol, and 29 cm 3 /mol, respectively, for ice V; and 10 6.7 , 4.5, 66 kJ/mol, and 11 cm 3 /mol, respectively, for ice VI. Ice VI may weaken to a mechanism of higher E * at T > 250 K. Ices V and VI are thus rheologically distinct but by coincidence have approximately the same strength under the conditions chosen for these experiments. To avoid misidentification, these tests are therefore accompanied by careful observations of the occurrences and characteristics of phase changes. One sample each of ice V and VI was quenched at pressure to metastably retain the high-pressure phase and the acquired deformation microstructures; X ray diffraction analysis of these samples confirmed the phase identification. Surface replicas of the deformed and quenched samples suggest that ice V probably deforms largely by dislocation creep, while ice VI deforms by a more complicated process involving substantial grain size reduction through recrystallization.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

Dacite petrogenesis on mid-ocean ridges: Evidence for oceanic crustal melting and assimilation

Whereas the majority of eruptions at oceanic spreading centers produce lavas with relatively homogeneous mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) compositions, the formation of tholeiitic andesites and dacites at mid-ocean ridges (MORs) is a petrological enigma. Eruptions of MOR high-silica lavas are typically associated with ridge discontinuities and have produced regionally significant volumes of lava. Andesites and dacites have been observed and sampled at several locations along the global MOR system; these include propagating ridge tips at ridge-transform intersections on the Juan de Fuca Ridge and eastern Gal??pagos spreading center, and at the 9??N overlapping spreading center on the East Pacific Rise. Despite the formation of these lavas at various ridges, MOR dacites show remarkably similar major element trends and incompatible trace element enrichments, suggesting that similar processes are controlling their chemistry. Although most geochemical variability in MOR basalts is consistent with low-pressure fractional crystallization of various mantle-derived parental melts, our geochemical data for MOR dacitic glasses suggest that contamination from a seawater-altered component is important in their petrogenesis. MOR dacites are characterized by elevated U, Th, Zr, and Hf, low Nb and Ta concentrations relative to rare earth elements (REE), and Al2O3, K2O, and Cl concentrations that are higher than expected from low-pressure fractional crystallization alone. Petrological modeling of MOR dacites suggests that partial melting and assimilation are both integral to their petrogenesis. Extensive fractional crystallization of a MORB parent combined with partial melting and assimilation of amphibole-bearing altered crust produces a magma with a geochemical signature similar to a MOR dacite. This supports the hypothesis that crustal assimilation is an important process in the formation of highly evolved MOR lavas and may be significant in the generation of evolved MORB in general. Additionally, these processes are likely to be more common in regions of episodic magma supply and enhanced magma-crust interaction such as at the ends of ridge segments. ?? The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Journal of Petrology↗

USGS2017

The interior structure of Ceres as revealed by surface topography

Ceres, the largest body in the asteroid belt (940 km diameter), provides a unique opportunity to study the interior structure of a volatile-rich dwarf planet. Variations in a planetary body's subsurface rheology and density affect the rate of topographic relaxation. Preferential attenuation of long wavelength topography (≥150 km) on Ceres suggests that the viscosity of its crust decreases with increasing depth. We present finite element (FE) geodynamical simulations of Ceres to identify the internal structures and compositions that best reproduce its topography as observed by the NASA Dawn mission. We infer that Ceres has a mechanically strong crust with maximum effective viscosity ∼10 25 Pa s. Combined with density constraints, this rheology suggests a crustal composition of carbonates or phyllosilicates, water ice, and at least 30 volume percent (vol.%) low-density, high-strength phases most consistent with salt and/or clathrate hydrates. The inference of these crustal materials supports the past existence of a global ocean, consistent with the observed surface composition. Meanwhile, we infer that the uppermost ≥60 km of the silicate-rich mantle is mechanically weak with viscosity <10 21 Pa s, suggesting the presence of liquid pore fluids in this region and a low temperature history that avoided igneous differentiation due to late accretion or efficient heat loss through hydrothermal processes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1998

Ductile shear zones beneath strike-slip faults: Implications for the thermomechanics of the San Andreas fault zone

We have carried out two-dimensional (2-D) numerical experiments on the bulk flow of a layer of fluid that is driven in a strike-slip sense by constant velocities applied at its boundaries. The fluid has the (linearized) conventional rheology assumed to apply to lower crust/upper mantle rocks. The temperature dependence of the effective viscosity of the fluid and the shear heating that accompanies deformation have been incorporated into the calculations, as has thermal conduction in an overlying crustal layer. Two end-member boundary conditions have been considered, corresponding to a strong upper crust driving a weaker ductile substrate and a strong ductile layer driving a passive, weak crust. In many cases of practical interest, shear heating is concentrated close to the axial plane of the shear zone for either boundary condition. For these cases, the resulting steady state temperature field is well approximated by a cylindrical heat source embedded in a conductive half-space at a depth corresponding to the top of the fluid layer. This approximation, along with the application of a theoretical result for one-dimensional shear zones, permits us to obtain simple analytical approximations to the thermal effects of 2-D ductile shear zones for a range of assumed rheologies and crustal geotherms, making complex numerical calculations unnecessary. Results are compared with observable effects on heat flux near the San Andreas fault using constraints on the slip distribution across the entire fault system. Ductile shearing in the lower crust or upper mantle can explain the observed increase in surface heat flux southeast of the Mendocino triple junction and match the amplitude of the regional heat flux anomaly in the California Coast Ranges. Because ductile dissipation depends only weakly on slip rate, faults moving only a few millimeters per year can be important heat sources, and the superposition of effects of localized ductile shearing on both currently active and now inactive strands of the San Andreas system can explain the breadth of the heat flux anomaly across central California.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

The Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site and ruptures crossing the boundary between the Provo and Salt Lake City segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, United States

How structural segment boundaries modulate earthquake behavior is an important scientific and societal question, especially for the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) where urban areas lie along multiple fault segments. The extent to which segment boundaries arrest ruptures, host moderate magnitude earthquakes, or transmit ruptures to adjacent fault segments is critical for understanding seismic hazard. To help address this outstanding issue, we conducted a paleoseismic investigation at the Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site (TR site) along the ∼7-km-long Fort Canyon segment boundary, which links the Provo (59 km) and Salt Lake City (40 km) segments of the WFZ. At the TR site, we logged two trenches which were cut across sub-parallel traces of the fault, separated by ∼175 m. Evidence from these exposures leads us to infer that at least 3 to 4 earthquakes have ruptured across the segment boundary in the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating of soil material developed below and above fault scarp colluvial packages and within a filled fissure constrains the age of the events. The most recent event ruptured the southern fault trace between 0.2 and 0.4 ka, the penultimate event ruptured the northern fault trace between 0.6 and 3.4 ka, and two prior events occurred between 1.4 and 6.2 ka (on the southern fault trace) and 7.2 and 8.1 ka (northern fault trace). Colluvial wedge heights of these events ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 m, indicating the segment boundary experiences surface ruptures with more than 1 m of vertical displacement. Given these estimates, we infer that these events were greater than Mw 6.7, with rupture extending across the entire segment boundary and portions of one or both adjacent fault segments. The Holocene recurrence of events at the TR site is lower than the closest paleoseismic sites at the adjacent fault segment endpoints. The contrasts in recurrence rates observed within 15 km of the Fort Canyon fault segment boundary may be explained conceptually by a leaky segment boundary model which permits spillover events, ruptures centered on the segment boundary, and segmented ruptures. The TR site demonstrates the utility of paleoseismology within segment boundaries which, through corroboration of displacement data, can demonstrate rupture connectivity between fault segments and test the validity of rupture models.

Utah↗

USGS2023

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information and decision-making tools to stakeholders. Stakeholders, which include Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and others, use this information to anticipate, assess, react to, and mitigate drought conditions and impacts. There is no obvious near-term solution to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts or to mitigate drought impacts. Multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” that benefits from integration of existing technologies, data, knowledge, and models across related and disparate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology. In response, the USGS initiated a new integrated-science approach in the Colorado River Basin in 2020. The Colorado River Basin was specifically selected because of concerns about future drought and its consequences for the region. This document explains how the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) project extends and enhances the science supported by USGS Mission Areas and Programs and articulates scientific gaps and stakeholder needs to identify and reduce drought risks. The approach seeks to answer complex Earth science questions developed in partnership with stakeholders about severe long-term drought. An integrated approach is required to tackle these complex questions, which any single science discipline cannot answer on its own. In addition to increased understanding of drought and drought effects in complex systems, the Colorado River Basin ASIST project was designed to improve efficiencies through rapid location of a broad array of data sources, assembly of model-ready multidisciplinary data, and delivery of actionable science to stakeholders at the speeds and scales needed for decision making. The project team identified the following actions needed for USGS to implement and advance an integrated science approach in the Colorado River Basin: (1) engage with stakeholders to document their needs and iteratively co-produce science and science delivery tools to address these needs, (2) integrate monitoring and observation systems developed by USGS and other agencies that track droughts and their effects, (3) collect and provide analysis-ready data to support integrated applications, (4) integrate data and model connections to predict multiple drought impacts, (5) conduct multidisciplinary coordination to improve interpretations, (6) leverage the knowledge base across USGS to enhance decision making, and (7) support the development of new integrated science approaches and technologies that provide analysis and management tools that can be used to adapt to the effects of drought in the Colorado River Basin. Proposals for initial short-term use-case projects were solicited, a subset of which was selected for funding to test implementation of these actions. Additionally, the project organized and convened a series of science and technology collaboration workshops in the USGS focused on challenges that were identified and prioritized by the short-term use-case projects and during the initial stakeholder analysis. These workshops were designed to bring together diverse perspectives to discuss science and technology challenges, stakeholder needs, capabilities, and knowledge gaps, with the goal of determining how the USGS can address challenges, identify future opportunities for continued engagement between participants, and inform the next steps for the Colorado River Basin ASIST project. Continuing to collaboratively engage with a wide range of stakeholders using an integrated approach will provide a suitable foundation of data and tools to formulate actionable intelligence for predicting droughts and informing adaptation to the effects of long-term drought in a holistic, timely, and effective manner.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2008

Fiber‐optic distributed temperature sensing: A new tool for assessment and monitoring of hydrologic processes

Fiber‐optic distributed temperature sensing (FO DTS) is an emerging technology for characterizing and monitoring a wide range of important earth processes. FO DTS utilizes laser light to measure temperature along the entire length of standard telecommunications optical fibers. The technology can measure temperature every meter over FO cables up to 30 kilometers (km) long. Commercially available systems can measure fiber temperature as often as 4 times per minute, with thermal precision ranging from 0.1 to 0.01 °C depending on measurement integration time. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a project to demonstrate and evaluate DTS as a technology to support hydrologic studies. This paper demonstrates the potential of the technology to assess and monitor hydrologic processes through case‐study examples of FO DTS monitoring of stream‐aquifer interaction on the Shenandoah River near Locke's Mill, Virginia, and on Fish Creek, near Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and estuary‐aquifer interaction on Waquoit Bay, Falmouth, Massachusetts. The ability to continuously observe temperature over large spatial scales with high spatial and temporal resolution provides a new opportunity to observe and monitor a wide range of hydrologic processes with application to other disciplines including hazards, climate‐change, and ecosystem monitoring.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Trends in publications in fluvial geomorphology over two decades: A truly new era in the discipline owing to recent technological revolution?

Trends in the field of fluvial geomorphology have been reviewed by a number of authors, who have emphasized the dramatic change occuring in the field in the last two decades of the twentieth century, largely as a result of technological advances. Nevertheless, no prior authors have systematically compiled data on publications in fluvial geomorphology over a long period and statistically analyzed the resulting data set. In this contribution we present a quantitative analysis of fluvial geomorphology papers published in the twenty-two-year period 1987–2009 in five journals of the discipline with a more specific focus on Geomorphology and Earth Surface Processes and Landforms ( ESPL ), identifying authorships, geographic origin of authors, and spatial and temporal scales covered. We also documented the tools employed, demonstrating the transformation of the field with the emergence of new tools over this period, and conducted a cluster to highlight links between tools and a set of factors (country of author's origin, journals, time, and spatial and temporal scales). Of the 1717 papers published in the five journals during this period, the results showed an increased diversity in the nationality of the first author, mainly when dealing with present time scale, and channel feature. Our data show a significant change in methods used in the field as a result of the increase in data availability and new sources of information from remote sensing (ground, airborne and, satellite). Clearly, a new era in knowledge production is observed since 2000, showing the emergence of a second period of active quantification and an internationalization of the fields.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2017

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2017

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C ( V c max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS1980

Nd-isotopes in selected mantle-derived rocks and minerals and their implications for mantle evolution

The Sm-Nd systematics in a variety of mantle-derived samples including kimberlites, alnoite, carbonatite, pyroxene and amphibole inclusions in alkali basalts and xenolithic eclogites, granulites and a pyroxene megacryst in kimberlites are reported. The additional data on kimberlites strengthen our earlier conclusion that kimberlites are derived from a relatively undifferentiated chondritic mantle source. This conclusion is based on the observation that the e{open}Nd values of most of the kimberlites are near zero. In contrast with the kimberlites, their garnet lherzolite inclusions show both time-averaged Nd enrichment and depletion with respect to Sm. Separated clinopyroxenes in eclogite xenoliths from the Roberts Victor kimberlite pipe show both positive and negative e{open}Nd values suggesting different genetic history. A whole rock lower crustal scapolite granulite xenolith from the Matsoku kimberlite pipe shows a negative e{open}Nd value of -4.2, possibly representative of the base of the crust in Lesotho. It appears that all inclusions, mafic and ultramafic, in kimberlites are unrelated to their kimberlite host. The above data and additional Sm-Nd data on xenoliths in alkali basalts, alpine peridotite and alnoite-carbonatites are used to construct a model for the upper 200 km of the earth's mantle - both oceanic and continental. The essential feature of this model is the increasing degree of fertility of the mantle with depth. The kimberlite's source at depths below 200 km in the subcontinental mantle is the most primitive in this model, and this primitive layer is also extended to the suboceanic mantle. However, it is clear from the Nd-isotopic data in the xenoliths of the continental kimberlites that above 200 km the continental mantle is distinctly different from their suboceanic counterpart. ?? 1980 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

USGS1976

Man against volcano: The eruption on Heimaey, Vestmann Islands, Iceland

The U.S. Geological Survey carries out scientific studies in the geological, hydrological, and cartographic sciences generally within the 50 states, but also in cooperation with scientific organizations in many foreign countries for the investigation of unusual earth science phenomena throughout the world. The following material discusses the impact of the 1973 volcanic eruption of Eldfell on the fishing port of Vestmannaeyjar on the island of Heimaey, Iceland. Before the eruption was over, approximately one-third of the town of Vestmannaeyjar had been obliterated but, more importantly, the potential damage had been reduced markedly by the spraying of seawater onto the advancing lava flows, causing them to be slowed, stopped, or diverted from the undamaged portion of the town. The Survey's interest and involvement in the Heimaey eruption in Iceland was occasioned by the possibility that the procedures used to control the course of the flowing lava and to reduce the damage in a modern town may some day be needed in Hawaii and possibly even in the continental United States. This publication is based on the observations of two USGS geologists, Richard S. Williams, Jr. and James G. Moore, as well as on information from the Icelandic Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Icelandic scientists' reports through the Center for Short-Lived Phenomena, and other published scientific reports. A number of Icelandic scientists studied the scientific aspects of the eruption and the engineering aspects of the control of lava flows, in particular, Professors Thorbjb'rn Sigurgeirsson and Sigurdur Thorarinsson of the University of Iceland Science Institute. Also, Icelandic governmental officials provided logistical and other support, in particular, Mr. Steingnmur Hermannsson, Director, Icelandic National Research Council and Professor Magnus Magnusson, Director, University of Iceland Science Institute.

Vestmannaeyjar↗

USGS2007

Modeling the spatial distribution of landslide-prone colluvium and shallow groundwater on hillslopes of Seattle, WA

Landslides in partially saturated colluvium on Seattle, WA, hillslopes have resulted in property damage and human casualties. We developed statistical models of colluvium and shallow-groundwater distributions to aid landslide hazard assessments. The models were developed using a geographic information system, digital geologic maps, digital topography, subsurface exploration results, the groundwater flow modeling software VS2DI and regression analyses. Input to the colluvium model includes slope, distance to a hillslope-crest escarpment, and escarpment slope and height. We developed different statistical relations for thickness of colluvium on four landforms. Groundwater model input includes colluvium basal slope and distance from the Fraser aquifer. This distance was used to estimate hydraulic conductivity based on the assumption that addition of finer-grained material from down-section would result in lower conductivity. Colluvial groundwater is perched so we estimated its saturated thickness. We used VS2DI to establish relations between saturated thickness and the hydraulic conductivity and basal slope of the colluvium. We developed different statistical relations for three groundwater flow regimes. All model results were validated using observational data that were excluded from calibration. Eighty percent of colluvium thickness predictions were within 25% of observed values and 88% of saturated thickness predictions were within 20% of observed values. The models are based on conditions common to many areas, so our method can provide accurate results for similar regions; relations in our statistical models require calibration for new regions. Our results suggest that Seattle landslides occur in native deposits and colluvium, ultimately in response to surface-water erosion of hillstope toes. Regional groundwater conditions do not appear to strongly affect the general distribution of Seattle landslides; historical landslides were equally dispersed within and outside of the area potentially affected by regional groundwater conditions.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS2025

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2016

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO 2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2004

Patterns of magma flow in segmented silicic dikes at Summer Coon volcano, Colorado: AMS and thin section analysis

A complex pattern of magma flow is found in two silicic dikes of a radial swarm at Summer Coon, an eroded stratovolcano in southern Colorado. The two intrusions are broken into multiple segments that suggest vertical dike propagation. However, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) measurements and thin section observations suggest that magma flow was often subhorizontal and away from the center of the volcano. Segments that are proximal to the central intrusion are characterized by magma that flowed steeply upward at the proximal segment extremity, then laterally along the segment, and finally downward at the distal end of the segment. Magma flow in offset segment tips located far from the volcano center was subhorizontal towards the adjacent segment, implying lateral propagation of segment tips towards one another. This observation suggests relatively high driving pressure in distal dike segments, as supported by dike thickening with radial distance from the center of the volcano. The present study indicates that radial dike evolution at stratovolcanoes is dominated by lateral flow of magma and dike segmentation is a poor magma flow indicator. A horizontally propagating radial dike has the potential to cause an eruption low on the flank of a composite cone, which poses a significant yet largely unrecognized hazard to population centers and infrastructure that may surround the volcano.

Colorado↗

USGS2007

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

[1] We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗