USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Landscape Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Understanding the future of big sagebrush regeneration: challenges of projecting complex ecological processes

Regeneration is an essential demographic step that affects plant population persistence, recovery after disturbances, and potential migration to track suitable climate conditions. Challenges of restoring big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) after disturbances including fire-invasive annual grass interactions exemplify the need to understand the complex regeneration processes of this long-lived, woody species that is widespread across the semiarid western U.S. Projected 21st century climate change is expected to increase drought risks and intensify restoration challenges. A detailed understanding of regeneration will be crucial for developing management frameworks for the big sagebrush region in the 21st century. Here, we used two complementary models to explore spatial and temporal relationships in the potential of big sagebrush regeneration representing (1) range-wide big sagebrush regeneration responses in natural vegetation (process-based model) and (2) big sagebrush restoration seeding outcomes following fire in the Great Basin and the Snake River Plains (regression-based model). The process-based model suggested substantial geographic variation in long-term regeneration trajectories with central and northern areas of the big sagebrush region remaining climatically suitable, whereas marginal and southern areas are becoming less suitable. The regression-based model suggested, however, that restoration seeding may become increasingly more difficult, illustrating the particularly difficult challenge of promoting sagebrush establishment after wildfire in invaded landscapes. These results suggest that sustaining big sagebrush on the landscape throughout the 21st century may climatically be feasible for many areas and that uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of big sagebrush may be driven more by dynamics of biological invasions and wildfire than by uncertainty in climate change projections. Divergent projections of the two models under 21st century climate conditions encourage further study to evaluate potential benefits of re-creating conditions of uninvaded, unburned natural big sagebrush vegetation for post-fire restoration seeding, such as seeding in multiple years and, for at least much of the northern Great Basin and Snake River Plains, the control of the fire-invasive annual grass cycle.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2026

Conflicts and collisions with an endangered carnivore: Landscape drivers and spatial risk pattern

Human–wildlife conflicts and anthropogenic mortality are expected to increase with the continuous encroachment on natural habitats within and around protected areas, yet the processes governing these risks remain poorly understood. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of two distinct processes involving the endangered Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ; hereafter, panther): (1) direct human–panther interactions and livestock depredation (hereafter, conflicts), and (2) vehicle collisions (hereafter, collisions). Using long-term data collected between 2006 and 2022 within the panther's breeding range in Southwest Florida, USA, we applied dynamic occupancy models to estimate probabilities of occurrence, colonization, and extinction of conflicts and collisions while accounting for imperfect detection. A total of 277 conflicts and 239 collisions were recorded during the study period. Occurrence probabilities for both conflicts and collisions increased during the early years of the study and subsequently stabilized. Landscape configuration consistently showed strong associations with both processes. Conflicts were more likely in areas with fragmented but closely spaced habitat patches, whereas collisions were more likely along road segments characterized by connected landscapes with low resistance to panther movement. In contrast, areas that showed greater distances between habitat patches and increased proportions of protected area were associated with lower probabilities of conflict or collision persistence over time. A predictive map was created to highlight areas with high probability of conflict and road segments with high probability of collision in Southwest Florida, USA. Identifying areas with elevated risk can inform targeted mitigation strategies, including habitat management, wildlife crossings, and outreach efforts, and further support long-term coexistence between humans and large carnivore populations.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Automated telemetry reveals post-reintroduction exploratory behavior and movement patterns of an endangered corvid, ʻAlalā (Corvus hawaiiensis) in Hawaiʻi, USA

Continuous movement monitoring is a powerful tool for evaluating reintroduction techniques and assessing how well reintroduced animals are adjusting to the wild. However, to date, continuous monitoring has only occurred for large-bodied species capable of carrying heavy tracking devices. In this study we used an automated VHF radio telemetry array to investigate the exploratory behavior and movement patterns of critically endangered ʻAlalā ( Corvus hawaiiensis ), reintroduced to the Island of Hawaiʻi in 2017. The 11 juvenile ʻAlalā we tracked exhibited high site fidelity and initial survival. Over time the birds showed decreased time spent at the supplemental feeders, and transitioned to more focused use of the landscape, suggesting increased foraging on wild food items. Birds with seemingly less spatial neophobia at release also made larger post-release exploratory movements. This study provides the first evidence that 1) supplemental feeding can support site fidelity for reintroduced ʻAlalā without restricting a transition to independent foraging, and 2) that pre-release personality metrics may be useful predictors for predicting post-release movements of ʻAlalā. Our work is the first to demonstrate the utility and power of automated telemetry for monitoring the reintroduction of small species.

Hawaii↗
USGS2004

Evidence for landscape-level, pollen-mediated gene flow from genetically modified creeping bentgrass with CP4 EPSPS as a marker

Sampling methods and results of a gene flow study are described that will be of interest to plant scientists, evolutionary biologists, ecologists, and stakeholders assessing the environmental safety of transgenic crops. This study documents gene flow on a landscape level from creeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.), one of the first wind-pollinated, perennial, and highly outcrossing transgenic crops being developed for commercial use. Most of the gene flow occurred within 2 km in the direction of prevailing winds. The maximal gene flow distances observed were 21 km and 14 km in sentinel and resident plants, respectively, that were located in primarily nonagronomic habitats. The selectable marker used in these studies was the CP4 EPSPS gene derived from Agrobacterium spp. strain CP4 that encodes 5-enol-pyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase and confers resistance to glyphosate herbicide. Evidence for gene flow to 75 of 138 sentinel plants of A. stolonifera and to 29 of 69 resident Agrostis plants was based on seedling progeny survival after spraying with glyphosate in greenhouse assays and positive TraitChek, PCR, and sequencing results. Additional studies are needed to determine whether introgression will occur and whether it will affect the ecological fitness of progeny or the structure of plant communities in which transgenic progeny may become established.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2018

Assessment of potential risks from renewable energy development and other anthropogenic factors to wintering Golden Eagles in the western United States

Wind and other energy development are expanding rapidly and on an unprecedented scale within the range of the Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) while other anthropogenic-related changes, wildfires, invasive plants, drought, and climate change are altering or destroying native habitats occupied by Golden Eagles. However, the potential effects of these factors on North American Golden Eagle populations are largely unknown and the most recent evidence indicates that the population in the western United States is declining slightly. Impediments to evaluating the potential effects of energy development projects on wintering Golden Eagles include issues of scale and a paucity of available information about eagle winter use areas and ecology. We applied a predictive model of eagle winter distribution developed for Idaho and Montana, to Idaho, Utah, Nevada and eastern Oregon to help identify potential wintering areas and identify risks that occur in those areas. The model identifies ~40% of the four state study area as potentially suitable eagle winter habitat and provides a basis for spatial assessment of possible risk factors to eagles wintering there. We used eBird and Christmas Bird Count citizen science datasets for an independent evaluation of the accuracy of our predictive distribution model. The model was robust, accurately predicting the presence of wintering Golden Eagles significantly more often than expected. We used digital environmental datasets (layers) of potential risk factors, in conjunction with model predicted eagle distribution, to better understand and estimate the extent of risks to the wintering eagle population in the study area. These layers represent available data for some of the factors previously identified as risks in the landscape to wintering Golden Eagles. The majority of predicted eagle wintering areas occurred where there was little habitat fragmentation (<10%). All predicted winter areas contained at least one potential risk factor (e.g., potential for energy development); 39.4% of predicted winter areas contained at least two known risk factors. The greatest number of risks often occurred where the human footprint was highest and where eagles were less likely to occur during winter. Our results can be used to help prioritize field surveys for identifying important Golden Eagle winter areas in the western United States and determine potential locations where energy development is least likely to have negative effects on wintering eagles. Survey efforts can be allocated in consideration of management and conservation objectives based on predicted habitat suitability and risk factors. For example, surveys for areas of high suitability and low risk can identify places to focus management for conservation of eagle winter areas. Further, sites proposed for wind energy development could be reviewed initially based on model predicted eagle wintering areas and then surveyed to determine if permitting for development is appropriate.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator ( R 2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI ( R 2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study demonstrates the importance of matching the scale of NDVI measurements to the vegetation properties of biomass and nitrogen phenology.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Urban stream syndrome and contaminant uptake in salamanders of Central Texas

We studied the ecological health of springs experiencing varying levels of urban development to assess impacts to rare endemic salamanders ( Eurycea spp.) of Central Texas. We evaluated measures of invertebrate species richness, water quality, and contaminant uptake by salamanders to determine how springs and their inhabitants were being affected by urban growth and changing land-use patterns. The number of environmental contaminants present and concentrations of contaminants increased in both water and salamander tissues with increasing age of the developments (i.e., years postconstruction) and increasing levels of impervious cover (e.g., roads) in urban watersheds compared with nondeveloped sites. We conclude that urbanization and associated increases in pollutant loading in watersheds can result in a loss of spring biodiversity and the accumulation of persistent and potentially toxic pollutants in salamanders. Although we detected generally low levels of pollutants, the altered water quality and invertebrate composition observed at springs, coupled with the changing hydrology and chronic contaminant exposure inherent in urban landscapes, is cause for concern, with potential implications for the long-term health, survival, and recovery of salamanders.

Texas↗
USGS2003

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n , greater number of parameters p , and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F -ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large ( N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling ( n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel ( Macomona liliana ) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

Thesis↗
USGS2007

The kelp highway hypothesis: Marine ecology, the coastal migration theory, and the peopling of the Americas

In this article, a collaborative effort between archaeologists and marine ecologists, we discuss the role kelp forest ecosystems may have played in facilitating the movement of maritime peoples from Asia to the Americas near the end of the Pleistocene. Growing in cool nearshore waters along rocky coastlines, kelp forests offer some of the most productive habitats on earth, with high primary productivity, magnified secondary productivity, and three-dimensional habitat supporting a diverse array of marine organisms. Today, extensive kelp forests are found around the North Pacific from Japan to Baja California. After a break in the tropics—where nearshore mangrove forests and coral reefs are highly productive—kelp forests are also found along the Andean Coast of South America. These Pacific Rim kelp forests support or shelter a wealth of shellfish, fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and seaweeds, resources heavily used historically by coastal peoples. By about 16,000 years ago, the North Pacific Coast offered a linear migration route, essentially unobstructed and entirely at sea level, from northeast Asia into the Americas. Recent reconstructions suggest that rising sea levels early in the postglacial created a highly convoluted and island-rich coast along Beringia's southern shore, conditions highly favorable to maritime hunter-gatherers. Along with the terrestrial resources available in adjacent landscapes, kelp forests and other nearshore habitats sheltered similar suites of food resources that required minimal adaptive adjustments for migrating coastal peoples. With reduced wave energy, holdfasts for boats, and productive fishing, these linear kelp forest ecosystems may have provided a kind of “kelp highway” for early maritime peoples colonizing the New World.

Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology↗
USGS2022

Global review of the effects of small carnivores on threatened species

The absences of large carnivores from many ecosystems, human-induced landscape changes, and resource supplementation have been theorized to increase the abundance of small carnivore species around the world. Overabundant and/or unconstrained small carnivores can have significant effects on specific prey species that, in some cases, can cascade through entire ecosystems. Here, we review the effects of small carnivores on threatened species. We focus on four well-studied families (Procyonidae, Mephitidae, Mustelidae, and Herpestidae) and emphasize that this is a global conservation issue with consequences for biodiversity. We review and compare the impacts that small carnivores can have on a variety of prey taxa including small mammals, nesting avian and reptilian species, and rare invertebrates. We differentiate between native and exotic small carnivores because this is often an important distinction in terms of the impact severity and range of effects. In addition to direct lethal effects (i.e. predation), small carnivores can also impact threatened species as disease vectors and through competition or overexploitation, which can disrupt communities via ecological release or extinction. Furthermore, we explore other case studies in which small carnivores have had positive effects on threatened species and discuss studies that reveal other taxa responsible for exerting stronger negative effects on threatened prey. We offer some concluding remarks about global small carnivore conservation and emphasize the need for decision-analytic approaches and robust analyses that can improve our assessment of how populations of threatened species can be affected. To date, indirect effects are especially difficult to measure in the field and many studies have provided only anecdotal or correlative results, signalling a need for improving our scientific methodologies and management approaches.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Landscape controls on the distribution and ecohydrology of central Oregon springs

Small springs in semiarid landscapes are essential for maintaining aquatic biodiversity and supporting livestock grazing operations. However, little is known about controls on the distribution and physical characteristics of small springs, the aquatic species they support, or their sensitivity to disturbance. We address this information gap in the Crooked River subbasin, a tributary of the Deschutes River in Oregon. We conducted spatial analyses on 2,519 mapped springs to investigate the influence of landscape controls (precipitation and bedrock permeability) on spring density in the Crooked River subbasin and the adjacent Upper Deschutes subbasin. Spring density was highest in areas of low bedrock permeability ( P < 0.0001) and high annual precipitation ( P < 0.0001). We suggest that the high density of small springs on low‐permeability bedrock indicates that these springs generally have short, shallow flow paths and thus may be susceptible to forecasted climate changes. A survey of 137 springs in the Crooked River subbasin revealed the hydrogeologic setting affects spring discharge type ( P = 0.017), temperature ( P = 0.011), and pH ( P = 0.026). We found a high frequency of anthropogenic impacts on springs: 95% of diffuse‐discharge springs and 79% of discrete‐discharge springs were disturbed by livestock grazing. Species inventories at 10 of the most intact surveyed springs confirm that small springs are biologically diverse, with 151 total species of plants and 135 total taxa of macroinvertebrates. Springs in the Crooked River subbasin are ecologically important habitats but require careful management to protect against livestock disturbance and development.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Matching of resource use and investment according to waterbody size in recreational fisheries

The size of an ecosystem affects ecological interactions, but less is known about how ecosystem size may affect social interactions. We posit that ecosystem size could serve as a basis for understanding and contextualizing social interactions, connecting how ecosystem size influences natural resource investment decisions and the use of ecosystem services. We leverage international (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, United States of America) inland recreational fishery data to explore whether certain ecosystem sizes receive a disproportionate amount of fish stocked (a measure of resource investment) and attract more angler effort – our measure of an ecosystem service. We find that smaller lentic waterbodies receive a disproportionate amount of fish stocked per area and also attract more angler effort per area consistently in all four countries. Therefore, we find that resource use and resource investment is matched by ecosystem size. We conclude that small waterbodies are prioritized by both managers and users and contribute more (per area) to recreational fisheries compared to large and more visible waterbodies on the landscape. An increasing focus on smaller-sized lakes and rivers, also those anthropogenically created, in science, assessment, and management is warranted.

Fisheries Research↗
USGS2019

Bats in a changing landscape: Linking occupancy and traits of a diverse montane bat community to fire regime

1. Wildfires are increasing in incidence and severity across the western US, leading to changes in forest structure and wildlife habitats. Knowledge of how species respond to fire-driven habitat changes in these landscapes is limited and generally disconnected from our understanding of adaptations that underpin responses to fire. 2. We aimed to identify relationships between fire regime, physiographic and forest structure variables, and occupancy and functional traits of a diverse bat community, to inform forest management in a fire-prone landscape. 3. We recorded bats acoustically at 83 sites (n = 249 recording nights) across the Plumas National Forest in the northern Sierra Nevada over 3 summers (2015-2017). We investigated relationships between fire regime, physiographic and forest structure and probability of bat occupancy for 9 species. We used fourth corner regression and RLQ analysis to identify ecomorphological traits (body mass; call frequency, bandwidth and duration; and open, edge or clutter (structurally complex vegetation) adapted foraging strategy) driving species-environment relationships across all 17 bat species. 4. Relationships between bat traits and fire regime were driven by adaptations to diverse forest structure. Bats adapted to foraging in open habitats and emitting longer duration and narrow bandwidth calls were associated with higher severity and more frequent fires, and bats adapted to foraging in a more cluttered environment were negatively associated with fire. Relationships between edge-adapted bat species and fire were driven by prey preference or habitat availability and configuration at a landscape scale. 5. Predicted increases in fire frequency and severity in the western US are likely to shift dominance in the bat community to species adapted to open environments and those able to exploit post-fire resource pulses (aquatic insects, beetles, snags). Managing for pyrodiversity within the western US is likely important for maintaining bat community diversity, as well as diversity of other biotic communities. Identifying trait-fire regime relationships will help forest managers develop appropriate management interventions and focus limited resources to provide for a broad range of species.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2026

Size of modern megafire not unprecedented and a cumulative fire deficit persists

Background The area burned by wildfires in western North American forests has grown since the 1980s, largely driven by individual “megafires.” Despite breaking state records for fire size, it remains uncertain whether these large fires are unprecedented, owing to limited knowledge of the area burned during historical fire regimes (pre-1900). We used new methods and 14 tree-ring fire-scar sites to evaluate whether the area burned by Arizona’s largest fire on record – the 217,741 ha 2011 Wallow Fire – was unprecedented in a multi-century context. Using the 375-year reconstruction of annual area burned, we also assessed the departure of the modern fire regime by introducing cumulative fire deficit, calculated as the cumulative sum of 20-year area burned anomalies. Results The size of the Wallow Fire was exceptional in the modern era, but comparable to the extent of burning in 1748, 1847, and 1851 on the same landscape. Notably, years of extensive fire (50,000–100,000 ha) were common on this landscape prior to 1900. The average return interval for fires exceeding 100,000 ha was just 20 years. By contrast, the 2011 Wallow Fire was the only modern fire > 10,000 ha in our study area ( n = 129, 1970–2024), leading to an 85% reduction in average annual area burned. This exceptional departure from the historical fire regime generated a cumulative fire deficit exceeding 2.0 million hectares by 2011, which continues to increase despite the occurrence of the large Wallow Fire. Conclusions Although the modern wildfire crisis is characterized by large, severe wildfires, historical fire regimes also included extensive fires. On an Arizona landscape, the sizes of several historical fires were on par with the largest wildfire on record. Similar historical precedent of large fires is likely true elsewhere in dry conifer forests of western North America. These findings underscore that future wildfire events could be even larger, and likely more severe, as fuels accumulate and the climate grows warmer and drier. Forest restoration aimed at reestablishing characteristic disturbance regimes, including frequent, large, low-severity fires, could be used to assist recovery of these ecosystems resulting from the cumulative fire deficit.

Arizona↗
USGS2019

Refinement of eDNA as an early monitoring tool at the landscape-level: Study design considerations

Natural resource managers use data on the spatial range of species to guide management decisions. These data come from survey or monitoring efforts that use a wide variety of tools. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a surveillance tool that uses genetic markers for detecting species and holds potential as a tool for large-scale monitoring programs. Two challenges of eDNA-based studies are uncertainties created by imperfect capture of eDNA in collection samples (e.g., water field samples) and imperfect detection of eDNA using molecular methods (e.g., quantitative PCR). Occurrence models can be used to address these challenges, thus we use an occurrence model to address two objectives: First, determine how many samples were required to detect species using eDNA; Second, examine when and where to take samples. We collected water samples from three different habitat types in the Upper Mississippi River when both Bighead Carp and Silver Carp were known to be present based on telemetry detections. Each habitat type (backwater, tributary, and impoundment) was sampled during April, May and November. Detections of eDNA for both species varied across sites and months, but were generally low, 0 - 19.3% of samples were positive for eDNA. Overall, we found that eDNA-based sampling holds promise to be a powerful monitoring tool for resource managers, however, limitations of eDNA-based sampling include different biological and ecological characteristics of target species such as seasonal habitat usage patterns as well as aspects of different physical environments that impact the implementation of these methods such as water temperature.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2026

Improved estimates of relative occurrence and abundance using opportunistic surveys and presence-only observations: A zero-inflated integrated species distribution model

Modeling tools for estimating and forecasting shifts in species distributions are becoming increasingly valuable for conservation planning and response. This is especially true for wild bird populations, which have been declining across habitats and regions. Species distribution models (SDM) represent a diverse set of tools with options for addressing various sources of bias. Complex spatial processes associated with rare or clustered species can be accounted for using zero-inflated SDMs, whereas biased survey data can be integrated with additional data sources to improve estimates. Each option addresses an important and common source of bias, but the two SDM frameworks have not been implemented together previously. We present a novel zero-inflated extension of an integrated SDM framework for a Poisson regression (ZI-iSDM), allowing for the estimation of independent occurrence and abundance processes by integrating opportunistic survey and presence-only data. We validated performance of this ZI-iSDM using simulated datasets under different degrees of species rarity and density on the landscape as well as sampling bias in opportunistic datasets. We additionally applied this model to real survey data for multiple wild bird species using publicly available observation data combined with open-access environmental information to describe habitat associations. We found that integrating presence-only data, such as banding or harvest events, can compensate for potential deficiencies in opportunistic surveys by expanding sampling to be more representative of available and used habitat. Additionally, models that first differentiated occurrence and abundance using a ZI term were better suited for approximating distributions of spatially clustered species.

Ecological Modeling↗
USGS2016

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus )

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2013

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗