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USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Reconciling scale using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework to improve management of woody encroachment in grasslands

Implementing strategies to navigate large-scale ecological transitions in grasslands is one of this century's greatest conservation challenges. In the US Great Plains, managing areas impacted by woody transitions have been reactive, short-lived, costly, and ineffective. Along with current technological innovation in rangeland monitoring, the promise of early warning science is to provide managers with sufficient time to be better prepared for novel signals of ecological change. Combining the science of early warning signals and frameworks such as the Resist – Accept – Direct (RAD) can provide land managers with guidelines to identify proactive strategies when facing ecological change. Using this approach, we found that opportunities to resist woody transitions decreased from 84 % to 60 % between 1990 and 2020 over the entire biome but remained highest in the northern and western Great Plains, which contributes to large scale conservation targets. These are key areas to prioritize resist opportunities. In contrast, 11 % of the biome exhibited early warning transition signals across all hierarchical scales by 2020, a fourfold increase since 1990. Lastly by 2020, 30 % of the biome exhibited early warning signals across multiple but not all scales. Here, efforts may be more effective when management is directed to conserve fragmented grassland legacies within a woody-dominated matrix and avoid large-scale monocultures of problematic encroaching woody species. Our multi-scale study indicates that 1) anchoring to the last remaining grassland core areas with no early warning of transitions and 2) strategically investing in these intact grasslands may provide the best results for grassland conservation.

Great Plains↗

USGS2015

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2006

Relationships between reef fish communities and remotely sensed rugosity measurements in Biscayne National Park, Florida, USA

The realization that coral reef ecosystem management must occur across multiple spatial scales and habitat types has led scientists and resource managers to seek variables that are easily measured over large areas and correlate well with reef resources. Here we investigate the utility of new technology in airborne laser surveying (NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL)) in assessing topographical complexity (rugosity) to predict reef fish community structure on shallow (<10 m deep) patch reefs. Marine portions of Biscayne National Park, Florida, USA, were surveyed remotely using the EAARL, and reef fish populations were visually surveyed on 10 patch reefs at independent, randomly selected stations ( n = 10–13 per reef). Rugosity at each station was assessed in situ by divers using the traditional chain-transect method (10-m scale), and remotely using the EAARL submarine topography data at multiple spatial scales (2, 5, and 10 m). The rugosity and biological datasets were analyzed together to elucidate the predictive power of EAARL rugosity in describing the variance in reef fish community variables and to assess the correlation between chain-transect and EAARL rugosity. EAARL rugosity was not well correlated with chain-transect rugosity, or with species richness of fishes (although statistically significant, the amount of variance explained by the model was very low). Variance in reef fish community attributes was better explained in reef-by-reef variability than by physical variables. However, once the reef-by-reef variability was taken into account in a two-way analysis of variance, the importance of rugosity could be seen on individual reefs. Fish species richness and abundance were statistically higher at high rugosity stations compared to medium and low rugosity stations, as predicted by prior ecological research. The EAARL shows promise as an important mapping tool for reef resource managers as they strive to inventory and protect coral reef resources.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Prototypic automated continuous recreational water quality monitoring of nine Chicago beaches

Predictive empirical modeling is used in many locations worldwide as a rapid, alternative recreational water quality management tool to eliminate delayed notifications associated with traditional fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) culturing (referred to as the persistence model, PM) and to prevent errors in releasing swimming advisories. The goal of this study was to develop a fully automated water quality management system for multiple beaches using predictive empirical models (EM) and state-of-the-art technology. Many recent EMs rely on samples or data collected manually, which adds to analysis time and increases the burden to the beach manager. In this study, data from water quality buoys and weather stations were transmitted through cellular telemetry to a web hosting service. An executable program simultaneously retrieved and aggregated data for regression equations and calculated EM results each morning at 9:30 AM; results were transferred through RSS feed to a website, mapped to each beach, and received by the lifeguards to be posted at the beach. Models were initially developed for five beaches, but by the third year, 21 beaches were managed using refined and validated modeling systems. The adjusted R 2 of the regressions relating Escherichia coli to hydrometeorological variables for the EMs were greater than those for the PMs, and ranged from 0.220 to 0.390 (2011) and 0.103 to 0.381 (2012). Validation results in 2013 revealed reduced predictive capabilities; however, three of the originally modeled beaches showed improvement in 2013 compared to 2012. The EMs generally showed higher accuracy and specificity than those of the PMs, and sensitivity was low for both approaches. In 2012 EM accuracy was 70–97%; specificity, 71–100%; and sensitivity, 0–64% and in 2013 accuracy was 68–97%; specificity, 73–100%; and sensitivity 0–36%. Factors that may have affected model capabilities include instrument malfunction, non-point source inputs, and sparse calibration data. The modeling system developed is the most extensive, fully-automated system for recreational water quality developed to date. Key insights for refining and improving large-scale empirical models for beach management have been developed through this multi-year effort.

Illinois↗

USGS2012

The potential effects of sodium bicarbonate, a major constituent from coalbed natural gas production, on aquatic life

The production water from coalbed natural gas (CBNG) extraction contains many constituents. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established aquatic life criteria for some of these constituents, and it is therefore possible to evaluate their risk to aquatic life. However, of the major ions associated with produced waters, chloride is the only one with an established aquatic life criterion (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1988). The focus of this research was NaHCO 3 , a compound that is a major constituent of coalbed natural gas produced waters in the Tongue and Powder River Basins. This project included laboratory experiments, field in situ experiments, a field mixing zone study, and a fishery presence/absence assessment. Though this investigation focuses on the Tongue and Powder River Basins, the information is applicable to other watersheds where sodium bicarbonate is a principle component of product water either from CBNG or from traditional or unconventional oil and gas development. These data can also be used to separate effects of saline discharges from those potentially posed by other constituents. Finally, this research effort and the additional collaboration with USGS Water Resources and Mapping, Bureau of Land Management, US Environmental Protection Agency, State of Montana, State of Wyoming, Montana State University, University of Wyoming, and others as part of a Powder River Aquatic Task Group, can be used as a model for successful approaches to studying landscapes with energy development. The laboratory acute toxicity experiments were completed with a suite of organisms, including 7 species of fish, 5 species of invertebrates, and 1 amphibian species. Experiments performed on these multiple species resulted in LC50s that ranged from 1,120 to greater than (>) 8,000 milligrams sodium bicarbonate per liter (mg NaHCO 3 /L) (also defined as 769 to >8,000 milligrams bicarbonate per liter (mg HCO 3 -/L) or total alkalinity expressed as 608 to >4,181 milligrams calcium carbonate per liter (mg CaCO 3 /L)) that varied across species and lifestage within a species. The age at which fish were exposed to NaHCO 3 significantly affected the severity of toxic responses for some organisms. The chronic toxicity of NaHCO 3 was defined in experiments that lasted from 7—60 days post-hatch. For these experiments, sublethal effects such as growth and reproduction, in addition to significant reductions in survival were included in the final determination of effects. Chronic toxicity was observed at concentrations that ranged from 450 to 800mg NaHCO 3 /L (also defined as 430 to 657 mg HCO 3 -/L or total alkalinity expressed as 354 to 539 mg CaCO 3 /L) and the specific concentration depended on the sensitivity of the four species of invertebrates and fish exposed. Sublethal investigations during chronic studies revealed percent decrease in the activity of sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na/K ATPase, an enzyme involved in ionoregulation) and the age of the fish at the onset of the decrease may affect the ability of fathead minnow to survive exposures to NaHCO 3 . A database of toxicity evaluations of NaHCO 3 on aquatic life has been constructed. Using these data, sample acute and chronic criteria of 459 and 381 mg NaHCO 3 /L, respectively, can be calculated for the protection of aquatic life. The final derivation and implementation of such criteria is, of course, left to the discretion of the concerned management agencies. A combination of in situ experiments, static-renewal experiments performed simultaneously with in situ experiments, and static renewal experiments performed with site water in the laboratory, demonstrated that untreated coalbed natural gas (CBNG) product water from the Tongue and Powder River Basins reduces survival of fathead minnow and pallid sturgeon. More precisely, the survival of early-lifestage fathead minnow, especially those less than 6-days post hatch (dph), likely is reduced significantly in the field when concentrations of NaHCO 3 rise above 1,500 mg/L. However, age was not a factor for pallid sturgeon and they were sensitive to product water regardless of age. Treatment with the Higgins Loop™ technology and dilution of untreated water increased survival in the laboratory. Both of these situations reduced ammonia in addition to the concentrations of NaHCO 3 . These experiments addressed the acute toxicity of effluent waters being added to the main stem rivers, but did not address issues related to the volumes of water that may be added to the watershed. Mixing zones of the three outfalls studied ranged from approximately 800—1,200 m below the confluence and the areas within these mixing zones with acutely lethal concentrations of NaHCO 3 (as defined by the presence of concentrated dye) are limited. The areas with concentrations of NaHCO 3 more than the concentrations likely to cause significant mortality, and more than the calculated sample water-quality criteria in the Tongue and Powder River Basins appear to be limited to tributaries and parts of mixing zones with considerable additions of untreated effluent.

Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Simulation of constituent transport in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, during unsteady-flow conditions, 1977 and 2003-04

The Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives for the Red River Valley Water Supply Project. Of those alternatives, six were considered for this study. Those six alternatives include a no-action alternative, two in-basin alternatives, and three interbasin alternatives. To address concerns of stakeholders and to provide information for an environmental impact statement, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, developed and applied a water-quality model to simulate the transport of total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, sodium, and total phosphorus during unsteady-flow conditions and to simulate the effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River. The physical domain of the model, hereinafter referred to as the Red River model, includes the Red River from Wahpeton, North Dakota, to Emerson, Manitoba, and the Sheyenne River from below Baldhill Dam, North Dakota, to the confluence with the Red River. Boundary conditions were specified for May 15 through October 31, 2003, and January 15 through June 30, 2004. Measured streamflow data were available for August 1 through October 31, 2003, and April 1 through June 30, 2004, but water-quality data were available only for September 15 through 16, 2003, and May 10 through 13, 2004. The water-quality boundary conditions were assumed to be time invariant for the entire calibration period and to be equal to the measured value. The average difference between the measured and simulated streamflows was less than 4 percent for both calibration periods, and most differences were less than 2 percent. The average differences are considered to be acceptable because the differences are less than 5 percent, or the same as the error that would be expected in a typical streamflow measurement. Simulated total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, and sodium concentrations generally were less than measured concentrations for both calibration periods. The average absolute differences generally were less than 25 percent. Total phosphorus was simulated as a nonconservative constituent by assuming that concentrations change according to a first-order decay rate. The average difference between the measured and simulated total phosphorus concentrations was 6.2 percent for the 2003 calibration period and -24 percent for the 2004 calibration period. The Red River model demonstrates sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions so a reasonable assumption is that the model can be used to compare relative effects of the various water-supply alternatives. The calibrated Red River model was used to simulate the effects of the six water-supply alternatives by using measured streamflows for September 1, 1976, through August 31, 1977, when streamflows throughout the Red River Basin were relatively low. Streamflows for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, were less than 17.9 cubic feet per second on 159 days of that 12-month period, and monthly average streamflows for the Red River at Grand Forks, North Dakota, and the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, were less than 30 percent of the respective long-term average monthly streamflows for 11 of the 12 months during September 1976 through August 1977. Water-quality boundary conditions were generated using a stochastic approach in which probability distributions derived from all available historical data on instream concentrations were used to produce daily concentrations at model boundaries. Return flow concentrations were estimated from source concentrations and current (2006) wastewater-treatment technology. Because no historical information on ungaged local inflow constituent concentrations is available to estimate those boundary conditions, time-invariant concentrations for the low-flow 2003 calibration period were used as the ungaged local inflow boundary conditions. The effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and

Minnesota, North Dakota↗

USGS2024

An update of hydrologic conditions and distribution of selected constituents in water, eastern Snake River aquifer and perched groundwater zones, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, emphasis 2019–21

Since 1952, wastewater discharged to infiltration ponds (also called “percolation ponds”) and disposal wells at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has affected water quality in the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer and perched groundwater zones underlying the INL. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), maintains groundwater-monitoring networks at the INL to determine hydrologic trends and to delineate the movement of radiochemical and chemical wastes in both the aquifer and perched groundwater zones. This report presents an analysis of water-level and water-quality data collected from the ESRP aquifer and perched groundwater wells from the USGS groundwater monitoring networks during 2019–21. From March–May 2018 to March–May 2021, water levels in wells completed in the ESRP aquifer increased in the northern part of the INL and decreased in the southwestern part. Water-level increases ranged from 0.02 to 1.04 feet in the northern part and decreases ranged from 0.03 to 2.94 feet in the southwestern part of the INL. Detectable concentrations of radiochemical constituents in water samples from wells in the ESRP aquifer at the INL generally decreased or remained constant during 2019–21. Decreases in concentrations were attributed to radioactive decay, changes in waste-disposal methods, and dilution from recharge and underflow. In 2021, tritium was detected above reporting levels in water samples collected from 46 of 105 aquifer wells and ranged from 150±50 to 4,280±150 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Tritium concentrations from eight wells completed in deep perched groundwater near the Advanced Test Reactor Complex (ATRC) generally were greater than or equal to the reporting level during at least one sampling event during 2019–21, and concentrations ranged from 160±50 to 2,097±107 pCi/L. Concentrations of strontium-90 in water from 12 of 45 aquifer wells sampled in 2021 exceeded the reporting level, and concentrations ranged from 2.5±0.7 to 299±6 pCi/L. During 2021, concentrations of strontium-90 from five wells completed in deep perched groundwater at the ATRC equaled or exceeded the reporting levels, and concentrations ranged from 3±0.9 pCi/L to 27.8±1.3 pCi/L. Concentrations of cesium-137 were less than the reporting level in all but one aquifer well, and concentrations of plutonium-238, plutonium-239, -240 (undivided), and americium-241 were less than the reporting level in water samples from all aquifer wells sampled during this study period. Dissolved chromium concentrations in water samples from 64 ESRP aquifer wells ranged from less than (<) 0.5 to 76.4 micrograms per liter (μg/L). During 2019–21, dissolved chromium was detected in water from wells completed in deep perched groundwater above the ESRP aquifer at the ATRC, and concentrations ranged from <1 to 82.1 μg/L. In 2021, concentrations of dissolved sodium in water from most ESRP aquifer wells in the southern part of the INL were greater than the western tributary groundwater background concentration of 8.3 milligrams per liter (mg/L). During 2021, dissolved sodium concentrations in water from 15 wells completed in deep perched groundwater ranged from 11.7 to 122.5 mg/L. Variations in sodium concentrations in aquifer wells and perched groundwater zones are attributed to either migration of remnant water from the former chemical-waste ponds or disposal volume and composition variability in percolation ponds installed in 2008. In 2021, concentrations of chloride in most water samples from ESRP aquifer wells south of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) and at the Central Facilities Area (CFA) exceeded background concentrations. Chloride concentrations in water from wells south of the INTEC have generally decreased because of discontinued chloride disposal to the legacy percolation ponds since 2002 when the discharge of wastewater was discontinued. During 2019–21, dissolved chloride concentrations in deep perched groundwater above the ESRP aquifer from 18 wells at the ATRC ranged from 8.15 to 231 mg/L. In 2021, sulfate concentrations in water samples from ESRP aquifer wells in the south-central part of the INL that exceeded the background concentration of sulfate, ranged from 21 to 141 mg/L. The greater-than-background concentrations in water from these wells are attributed to sulfate disposal at the ATRC infiltration ponds or the legacy INTEC percolation ponds. In 2021, sulfate concentrations in water samples from aquifer wells near the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) were mostly greater than background concentrations. The maximum dissolved sulfate concentration in shallow perched groundwater near the ATRC was 575 mg/L in 2021. During 2021, dissolved sulfate concentrations in water from wells completed in deep perched groundwater near the cold waste ponds at the ATRC ranged from 22.3 to 519 mg/L. In 2021, concentrations of nitrate in water from most ESRP aquifer wells at and near the INTEC exceeded the western tributary groundwater background concentration of 0.655 mg/L. Concentrations of nitrate in aquifer wells southwest of INTEC and farther away from the influence of disposal areas and the Big Lost River, in intermittent source of surface water recharge to the aquifer, show a general decrease in nitrate concentration over time. Two aquifer wells south of INTEC show increasing trends that could result from wastewater beneath the INTEC tank farm being mobilized to the aquifer. During 2019–21, water samples from several ESRP aquifer wells were collected and analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Twelve VOCs were detected, and 1–4 VOCs were detected in water samples from 10 wells. The most frequently detected VOCs include carbon tetrachloride (tetrachloromethane), trichloromethane, tetrachloroethene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and trichloroethene. In 2019–21, concentrations for all VOCs were less than their respective maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) for drinking water, except carbon tetrachloride in one well, trichloroethene in two wells, and vinyl chloride in one well. During 2019–21, variability and bias were evaluated from 34 replicate and 14 blank quality-assurance samples. Results from replicate analyses were investigated to evaluate sample variability. Constituents with acceptable reproducibility were major ions, trace elements, nutrients, and VOCs. All radiochemical constituents including gross alpha- and beta- radioactivity, strontium-90, cesium-137, and tritium, had acceptable reproducibility. Bias from sample contamination was evaluated from equipment, field, and source-solution blanks. Chloride and sulfate were detected slightly above their respective method detection limits in equipment and field blanks, but at concentrations well below the co-collected sample for that well. These chloride and sulfate detections in the field and equipment blanks were inconsequential because they weren’t detected above the analysis-specific variability for those constituents as determined by replicate sample result evaluation. None of the detections of nutrients and trace inorganic constituents were high enough to indicate environmental sample or analytical procedure bias.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

Borehole-explosion and air-gun data acquired in the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), southern California: description of the survey

The Imperial and Coachella Valleys are being formed by active plate-tectonic processes. From the Imperial Valley southward into the Gulf of California, plate motions are rifting the continent apart. In the Coachella Valley, the plates are sliding past one another along the San Andreas and related faults (fig. 1). These processes build the stunning landscapes of the region, but also produce damaging earthquakes. Rupture of the southern section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF), from the Coachella Valley to the Mojave Desert, is believed to be the greatest natural hazard that California will face in the near future. With an estimated magnitude between 7.2 and 8.1, such an event would result in violent shaking, loss of life, and disruption of infrastructure (freeways, aqueducts, power, petroleum, and communication lines) that might bring much of southern California to a standstill. As part of the nation’s efforts to avert a catastrophe of this magnitude, a number of projects have been undertaken to more fully understand and mitigate the effects of such an event. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), funded jointly by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), seeks to understand, through seismic imaging, the structure of the Earth surrounding the SAF, including the sedimentary basins on which cities are built. The principal investigators (PIs) of this collaborative project represent the USGS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), California Institute of Technology (Caltech), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps), University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), and Stanford University. SSIP will create images of underground structure and sediments in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys and adjacent mountain ranges to investigate the earthquake hazards posed to cities in this area. Importantly, the images will help determine the underground geometry of the SAF, how deep the sediments are, and how fast earthquake energy can travel through the sediments. All of these factors determine how hard the earth will shake during a major earthquake. If we can improve on our understanding of how and where earthquakes will occur, and how strong their resultant shaking will be, then buildings can be designed or retrofitted accordingly in order to resist damage and collapse, and emergency plans can be adequately prepared. In addition, SSIP will investigate the processes of rifting and magmatism in the Salton Trough in order to better understand this important plate-boundary region. The Salton Trough is a unique rift in that subsidence is accompanied by huge influxes of infilling sediment from the Colorado River. Volcanism that accompanies the subsidence here is muted by these influxes of sediment. The Salton Trough, in the central part of the Imperial Valley, is apparently made up of entirely new crust: young sediment in the upper crust and basaltic intrusive rocks in the mid-to-lower crust (Fuis and others, 1984). Similar to the ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scans performed by the medical industry, seismic imaging is a collection of techniques that enable scientists to obtain a picture of what is underground. The petroleum industry routinely uses these techniques to search for oil and gas at relatively shallow depths; however, the scope of this project demanded that we image as much as 30 km into the Earth’s crust. This project generated and recorded seismic waves, similar to sound waves, which move downward into the Earth and are bent (refracted) or echoed (reflected) back to the surface. SSIP acquired data in a series of intersecting lines that cover key areas of the Salton Trough. The sources of sound waves were detonations (shots) in deep boreholes, designed to create energy equivalent to magnitude 1–2 earthquakes. The study region routinely experiences earthquakes of these magnitudes, but earthquakes are not located in such a way as to permit us to create the detailed images we need for earthquake hazard assessment. Air gun bursts, generated in the Salton Sea along extensions of our onshore seismic lines, also were utilized as sound-wave sources. Temporary deployments of portable land seismometers, as well as ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) on the floor of the Salton Sea, recorded the energy from the land shots and air gun bursts. SSIP is similar to the Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiments of 1994 and 1999 (LARSE I and II, respectively; Murphy and others, 1996; Fuis and others, 2001). The LARSE surveys demonstrated that the USGS and collaborators can safely and effectively conduct seismic imaging surveys in urban and nonurban areas, on lands owned and/or managed by many different types of agencies and entities. Information was produced that could not have been obtained any other way, and this information was key to changing the leading ideas about earthquake hazards at that time in the Los Angeles region. These surveys produced no significant environmental impact or damage to structures, and they did not trigger earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2005

Coral disease and health workshop: Coral histopathology II, July 12-14, 2005

The health and continued existence of coral reef ecosystems are threatened by an increasing array of environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Coral disease is one of the prominent causes of increased mortality among reefs globally, particularly in the Caribbean. Although over 40 different coral diseases and syndromes have been reported worldwide, only a few etiological agents have been confirmed; most pathogens remain unknown and the dynamics of disease transmission, pathogenicity and mortality are not understood. Causal relationships have been documented for only a few of the coral diseases, while new syndromes continue to emerge. Extensive field observations by coral biologists have provided substantial documentation of a plethora of new pathologies, but our understanding, however, has been limited to descriptions of gross lesions with names reflecting these observations (e.g., black band, white band, dark spot). To determine etiology, we must equip coral diseases scientists with basic biomedical knowledge and specialized training in areas such as histology, cell biology and pathology. Only through combining descriptive science with mechanistic science and employing the synthesis epizootiology provides will we be able to gain insight into causation and become equipped to handle the pending crisis. One of the critical challenges faced by coral disease researchers is to establish a framework to systematically study coral pathologies drawing from the field of diagnostic medicine and pathology and using generally accepted nomenclature. This process began in April 2004, with a workshop titled Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Developing Diagnostic Criteria co-convened by the Coral Disease and Health Consortium (CDHC), a working group organized under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, and the International Registry for Coral Pathology (IRCP). The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) in Madison, Wisconsin and was focused on gross morphology and disease signs observed in the field. A resounding recommendation from the histopathologists participating in the workshop was the urgent need to develop diagnostic criteria that are suitable to move from gross observations to morphological diagnoses based on evaluation of microscopic anatomy. As a continuation of building the foundation and framework for coral disease diagnostics, the CDHC convened the Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Coral Histopathology II in Charleston, South Carolina, July 11-14, 2005. The workshop was hosted by the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC which provided expertise, facilities and equipment in support of the workshop. All of the histological slides and related photographs used in the discussions were prepared and supplied by the IRCP. This workshop brought together 15 experts in veterinary and medical pathology and coral biology from national and international research institutes and government laboratories. The mission was to devise a standardized approach to examining microscopic anatomy and pathology of corals and a standardized nomenclature to facilitate accurate descriptions of the microscopic morphology of corals and enhance communication among specialists investigating causes of coral death. 2 The participants of this workshop deliberated for 3 days to refine the nomenclature for gross and microscopic anatomy of corals and systematically described microscopic changes associated with selected coral diseases. The findings and recommendations from the deliberations will be submitted to the research community for peer review. The standardized nomenclature and descriptions produced at this workshop will ultimately be made available to the scientific community through a variety of media including the World Wide Web. An exciting highlight of this meeting was provided by Professor Robert Ogilvie (MUSC Department of Cell Biology and Anatomy) when he introduced participants to a new digital technology that is revolutionizing histology and histopathology in the medical field. The Virtual Slide technology creates digital images of histological tissue sections by computer scanning actual slides in high definition and storing the images for retrieval and viewing. Virtual slides now allow any investigator with access to a computer and the web to view, search, annotate and comment on the same tissue sections in real time. Medical and veterinary slide libraries across the country are being converted into virtual slides to enhance biomedical education, research and diagnosis. The coral health and disease researchers at this workshop deem virtual slides as a significant way to increase capabilities in coral histology and a means for pathology consultations on coral disease cases on a global scale.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-‐2000) -‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -‐Japan Tokai-‐oki to Kumano-‐nada Project (2004) -‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -‐Malaysia Gumusut-‐Kakap Project (2006) -‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -‐MH-‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-‐Production Expedition (2012-‐2013) -‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-‐2008) -‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-‐while-‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-‐situ nature of hydrate-‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report↗

USGS2013

Sources and characteristics of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

This study characterized the amount and quality of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, to gain an understanding of sources that contribute to the formation of chlorinated and brominated disinfection by-products (DBPs), focusing on regulated DBPs in treated drinking water from two direct-filtration treatment plants that together serve approximately 100,000 customers. The central hypothesis guiding this study was that natural organic matter leaching out of the forested watershed, in-stream growth of benthic algae, and phytoplankton blooms in the reservoirs contribute different and varying proportions of organic carbon to the river. Differences in the amount and composition of carbon derived from each source affects the types and concentrations of DBP precursors entering the treatment plants and, as a result, yield varying DBP concentrations and species in finished water. The two classes of DBPs analyzed in this study-trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)-form from precursors within the dissolved and particulate pools of organic matter present in source water. The five principal objectives of the study were to (1) describe the seasonal quantity and character of organic matter in the Clackamas River; (2) relate the amount and composition of organic matter to the formation of DBPs; (3) evaluate sources of DBP precursors in the watershed; (4) assess the use of optical measurements, including in-situ fluorescence, for estimating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DBP formation; and (5) assess the removal of DBP precursors during treatment by conducting treatability "jar-test" experiments at one of the treatment plants. Data collection consisted of (1) monthly sampling of source and finished water at two drinking-water treatment plants; (2) event-based sampling in the mainstem, tributaries, and North Fork Reservoir; and (3) in-situ continuous monitoring of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM), turbidity, chlorophyll- a , and other constituents to continuously track source-water conditions in near real-time. Treatability tests were conducted during the four event-based surveys to determine the effectiveness of coagulant and powdered activated carbon (PAC) on the removal of DBP precursors. Sample analyses included DOC, total particulate carbon (TPC), total and dissolved nutrients, absorbance and fluorescence spectroscopy, and, for regulated DBPs, concentrations of THMs and HAAs in finished water and laboratory-based THM and HAA formation potentials (THMFP and HAAFP, respectively) for source water and selected locations throughout the watershed. The results of this study may not be typical given the record and near record amounts of precipitation that occurred during spring that produced streamflow much higher than average in 2010-11. Although there were algal blooms, lower concentrations of chlorophyll- a were observed in the water column during the study period compared to historical data. Concentrations of DBPs in finished (treated) water averaged 0.024 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for THMs and 0.022 mg/L for HAAs; maximum values were about 0.040 mg/L for both classes of DBPs. Although DBP concentrations were somewhat higher within the distribution system, none of the samples collected for this study or for the quarterly compliance monitoring by the water utilities exceeded levels permissible under existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) regulations: 0.080 mg/L for THMs and 0.060 mg/L for HAAs. DOC concentrations were generally low in the Clackamas River, typically about 1.0-1.5 mg/L. Concentrations in the mainstem occasionally increased to nearly 2.5 mg/L during storms; DOC concentrations in tributaries were sometimes much higher (up to 7.8 mg/L). The continuous in-situ FDOM measurements indicated sharp rises in DOC concentrations in the mainstem following rainfall events; concentrations were relatively stable during summer base flow. Even though the first autumn storm mobilized appreciable quantities of carbon, higher concentrations of DBPs in finished water were observed 3-weeks later, after the ground was saturated from additional rainfall. The majority of the DOC in the lower Clackamas River appears to originate from the upper basin, suggesting terrestrial carbon was commonly the dominant source. Lower-basin tributaries typically contained the highest concentrations of DOC and DBP precursors and contributed substantially to the overall loads in the mainstem during storms. During low-flow periods, tributaries were not major sources of DOC or DBP precursors to the Clackamas River. Although the dissolved fraction of organic carbon contributed the majority of DBP precursors, at times the particulate fraction (inorganic sediment and organic particles including detritus and algal material) contributed a substantial fraction of DBP precursors. Considering just the main-stem sites, on average, 10 percent of THMFP and 32 percent of HAAFP were attributed to particulate carbon. This finding suggests water-treatment methods that remove particles prior to chlorination would reduce finished-water DBP concentrations to some degree. Overall, concentrations of THM and HAA precursors were closely linked to DOC concentrations; laboratory DBP formation potentials (DBPFPs) clearly showed that THMFP and HAAFP were greatest in the downstream tributaries that contained elevated carbon concentrations. However, carbon-normalized "specific" formation potentials for THMs and HAAs (STHMFP and SHAAFP, respectively) revealed changes in carbon character over time that affected the two types of DBP classes differently. HAA precursors were elevated in waters containing aromatic-rich soil-derived material arising from forested areas. In contrast, THM precursors were associated with carbon having a lower aromatic content; highest STHMFP occurred in autumn 2011 in the mainstem from North Fork Reservoir downstream to LO DWTP. This pattern suggests the potential for a link between THM precursors and algal-derived carbon. The highest STHMFP value was measured within North Fork Reservoir, indicating reservoir derived carbon may be important for this class of DBPs. Weak correlations between STHMFP and SHAAFP emphasize that precursor sources for these types of DBPs may be different. This highlights not only that different locations within the watershed produce carbon with different reactivity (specific DBPFP), but also that different management approaches for each class of DBP precursors could be required for control. Treatability tests conducted on source water during four basin-wide surveys demonstrated that an average of about 40 percent of DOC can be removed by coagulation. While the decrease in THMFP following coagulation was similar to DOC, the decrease in HAAFP was much greater (approximately 70 percent), indicating coagulation is particularly effective at removing HAA precursors'likely because of the aromatic nature of the carbon associated with HAA precursors. Several findings from this study have direct implications for managing drinking-water resources and for providing useful information that may help improve treatment-plant operations. For example, the use of in-situ fluorometers that measure FDOM provided an excellent proxy for DOC concentration in this system and revealed short-term, rapid changes in DOC concentration during storm events. In addition, the strong correlation between FDOM values measured in-situ and HAA5 concentrations in finished water may permit estimation of continuous HAA concentrations, as was done here. As part of this study, multiple in-situ FDOM sensors were deployed continuously and in real-time to characterize the composition of dissolved organic matter. Although the initial results were promising, additional research and engineering developments will be needed to demonstrate the full utility of these sensors for this purpose. In conclusion, although DBPFPs were strongly correlated to DOC concentration, some DBPs formed from particulate carbon, including terrestrial leaf material and algal material such as planktonic species of blue-green algae and sloughed filaments, stalks, and cells of benthic algae. Different precursor sources in the watershed were evident from the data, suggesting specific actions may be available to address some of these sources. In-situ measurements of FDOM proved to be an excellent proxy for DOC concentration as well as HAA formation during treatment, which suggests further development and refinement of these sensors have the potential to provide real-time information about complex watershed processes to operators at the drinking-water treatment plants. Follow-up studies could examine the relative roles that terrestrial and algal sources have on the DBP precursor pool to better understand how watershed-management activities may be affecting the transport of these compounds to Clackamas River drinking-water intakes. Given the low concentrations of algae in the water column during this study, additional surveys during more typical river conditions could provide a more complete understanding of how algae contribute DBP precursors. Further development of FDOM-sensor technology can improve our understanding of carbon dynamics in the river and how concentrations may be trending over time. This study was conducted in collaboration with Clackamas River Water and the City of Lake Oswego water utilities. Other research partners included Oregon Health and Science University in Hillsboro, Oregon, Alexin Laboratory in Tigard, Oregon, U.S. Geological Survey National Research Program Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, and the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers in Portland, Oregon, and Sacramento, California. This project was supported with funding from Clackamas River Water, City of Lake Oswego, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Water Research Foundation.

Oregon↗