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USGS2007

Anthropogenic organic compounds in ground water and finished water of community water systems in the Greater Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota and Wisconsin, 2004–05

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, two Source Water-Quality Assessments (SWQAs) were conducted during 2004–05 in unconfined parts of the glacial aquifer system and in unconfined parts of the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer in the Greater Twin Cities metropolitan area of Minnesota and Wisconsin. SWQAs are two-phased sampling activities in the NAWQA Program. The first phase evaluated the occurrence of 265 (258 are included in this report) anthropogenic organic compounds (AOCs) through monitoring source water in 30 of the largest-producing community water system wells completed in the aquifers underlying the Greater Twin Cities metropolitan area. The AOCs included volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides, and other AOCs. During the second phase of the study, 15 of the original community water system wells, those with the greatest number of AOC detections, were resampled along with associated finished water. Results from the first phase of sampling indicated that 40 AOCs were detected, and 83 percent of the samples had at least one detected AOC. Concentrations of AOCs detected in the source water generally were low (defined in this report as concentrations less than 1.0 microgram per liter). Human-health benchmarks for these compounds (Maximum Contaminant Levels for regulated compounds or Health-Based Screening Levels for unregulated compounds, when they existed) typically were not exceeded. Fifteen VOCs were detected in the source-water samples. However, concentrations were low. Seventeen pesticide compounds were detected generally at concentrations less than concentrations for VOCs. Most of the pesticide compounds detected were triazine- or alachlor-parent compounds or their breakdown products. Eight other AOCs were detected in the source-water samples but generally at low concentrations. Results from the second phase of sampling indicated a total of 13 and 12 VOCs were detected in source-water and in finished-water samples, respectively. Most of the VOCs, except for those associated with disinfection by-products, were detected more frequently in source-water samples than in finished- water samples. Concentrations of most VOCs detected in either source water or finished water were less than human-health benchmarks. Twenty-one pesticide compounds were detected in either source water or finished water. Concentrations of detected pesticides in source-water and finished-water samples were low. The most frequently detected compounds in both the source and finished water were triazine-parent pesticides or their breakdown products and breakdown products of alachlor and metolachlor. In general, pesticides, if detected in source water, also were detected in the corresponding finished water. Concentrations of pesticides detected were less than human-health benchmarks in both source and finished water. A total of nine other AOCs were detected in the source-water or finished-water samples, and about the same number of compounds was detected in each of the sample groups in either source water or finished water. Detected concentrations of other AOCs were low. Water-quality results from source-water samples were compared to characterize differences between aquifers. VOC and other AOC detections were more frequent in water from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer compared to the glacial aquifer. Pesticides, however, were detected more frequently in the glacial aquifer. On the basis of study results, the hydrogeologic setting, land use, and aquifer productivity are important in explaining the occurrence of AOCs in community water system wells. Results of this study indicate that monitoring for pesticides in source water generally indicates the potential occurrence of pesticides in finished water but that this is not necessarily true of VOCs. Additional monitoring is needed to better understand the occurrence of other AOCs in source and finished waters.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Hydrology of Haskell Lake and investigation of a groundwater contamination plume, Lac du Flambeau Reservation, Wisconsin

Haskell Lake is a shallow, 89-acre drainage lake in the headwaters of the Squirrel River, on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation in northern Wisconsin. The lake has long been valued by the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians (LDF Tribe) for abundant wild rice and game fish. In recent decades, however, wild rice has mostly disappeared from the lake and the fishery has declined. A petroleum contamination plume discovered in the 1990s in the shallow aquifer upgradient from the northern end of the lake poses a threat to the ecological health of the lake and the aquifer, which is the sole drinking water source for nearby residents and businesses. Understanding of the lake’s hydrology is important to the LDF Tribe as they seek to restore wild rice and maintain the ecological health of the Haskell Lake/Tower Creek watershed. An improved understanding of lithology in the area of the contamination plume, documentation of a contamination pathway from groundwater in the plume source area to Haskell Lake, and an understanding of the plume extent beneath the lake are needed to advance remediation efforts. Evaluation of the fraction of groundwater discharge that is contaminated relative to the overall lake water budget is desired as a first step towards determining the extent of ecological effects from the plume. A cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the LDF Tribe was initiated to quantify the lake water budget and the sources of water to the lake, to provide a rough estimate of the maximum quantity of groundwater discharge to the lake that may be contaminated, and to improve the conceptual understanding of the plume extent and subsurface materials in the area of contamination. The results of this study can help inform natural resource management of the Haskell Lake/Tower Creek watershed, including planned wild rice restoration and cleanup of the contaminant plume. During 2016–17, field data on lake and groundwater levels, gradients, fluxes, and subsurface lithology were collected using a variety of techniques that ranged from basic measurement of water levels and streamflows to distributed temperature sensing, vertical temperature profiling, and several shallow geophysical methods. The data were used to inform a MODFLOW–NWT model that simulated the contributing groundwatershed, including the water budget for Haskell Lake and Tower Creek using the Lake, Streamflow-Routing, and Unsaturated Zone-Flow Packages. Particle tracking with the MODFLOW solution (using MODPATH 6) was used to improve understanding of the downgradient extent of the contamination plume, estimate groundwater flux through the plume area, and delineate the groundwater contributing area (groundwatershed) for the lake/creek system. Linear uncertainty estimates for model results were computed during model parameter estimation using the software package PEST++. Results indicate groundwater discharge along the perimeter of Haskell Lake, with groundwater accounting for about 22 (± 11.5) percent of the lake water budget. Field data and particle tracking results indicate discharge of the entire contamination plume to Haskell Lake. Although the exact locations where contaminated groundwater enters the lake are unknown, the downgradient extent of the plume beneath Haskell Lake is likely limited to within about 700 feet from the shore. Groundwater flux through the plume accounts for at most about 1.4 percent of total groundwater discharge to Haskell Lake, or about 0.3 percent of the lake water budget. Most groundwater discharging to Haskell Lake and Tower Creek originates as terrestrial recharge. A lesser amount originates in or passes through neighboring lakes, including Buckskin, Crawling Stone, Broken Bow, Tippecanoe, and Jerms Lakes, as well as several unnamed kettles. The average age of simulated groundwater discharge to the lake is about 20 years.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Water Quality and Hydrology of Whitefish (Bardon) Lake, Douglas County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of an Oligotrophic Seepage Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Whitefish Lake, which is officially named Bardon Lake, is an oligotrophic, soft-water seepage lake in northwestern Wisconsin, and classified by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an Outstanding Resource Water. Ongoing monitoring of the lake demonstrated that its water quality began to degrade (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations) around 2002 following a period of high water level. To provide a better understanding of what caused the degradation in water quality, and provide information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. The goals of the study were to describe the past and present water quality of the lake, quantify water and phosphorus budgets for the lake, simulate the potential effects of changes in phosphorus inputs on the lake's water quality, analyze changes in the water level in the lake since 1900, and relate the importance of changes in climate and changes in anthropogenic (human-induced) factors in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. Since 1998, total phosphorus concentrations increased from near the 0.005-milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit to about 0.010 mg/L in 2006, and then decreased slightly in 2007-08. During this time, chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths remained relatively stable at about 1.5 micrograms per liter (ug/L) and 26 feet, respectively. Whitefish Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic. Because the productivity in Whitefish Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets were constructed for the lake. Because it was believed that much of its phosphorus comes from the atmosphere, phosphorus deposition was measured in this study. Phosphorus input from the atmosphere was greater than computed based on previously reported wetfall phosphorus concentrations. The concentrations and deposition rates can be used to estimate atmospheric loading in future lake studies. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 232 pounds: 56 percent from precipitation, 27 percent from groundwater, and 16 percent from septic systems. During a series of dry years (low water levels) and wet years (high water levels), the inputs of water and phosphorus ranged by only 10-13 percent. Results from the Canfield and Bachmann eutrophication model and Carlson trophic-state-index equations demonstrated that the lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus loading, with percent change in chlorophyll a being similar to the percent change in loading and the change in total phosphorus and Secchi depth being slightly smaller. Therefore, changes in phosphorus loading should affect the water quality of the lake. Specific scenarios that simulated the effects of anthropogenic (human-induced) and climatic (water level) changes demonstrated that: surface-water inflow (runoff) based on current development has little effect on pelagic water quality, changes in the inputs from septic systems and development in the watershed could have a large effect on water quality, and decreases in water and phosphorus loading during periods of low water level had little effect on water quality. Sustained high water levels, resulting from several wet years with relatively high water and phosphorus input, however, could cause a small degradation in water quality. Although high water levels may be associated with a degradation in water quality, it appears that anthropogenic changes in the watershed may be more important in affecting the future water quality of the lake. Fluctuations in water levels since 1998 are representative of what has occurred since 1900, with fluctuations of about 3 feet occurring about every 15 years. Based on total phosphorus concentrations inferred from sediment core analysis, there has been little long-term change in water quality and there has been a slight deterioration in water quality following most periods of high water levels. There

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Evaluation of Street Sweeping as a Stormwater-Quality-Management Tool in Three Residential Basins in Madison, Wisconsin

Recent technological improvements have increased the ability of street sweepers to remove sediment and other debris from street surfaces; the effect of these technological advancements on stormwater quality is largely unknown. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, evaluated three street-sweeper technologies from 2002 through 2006. Regenerative-air, vacuum-assist, and mechanical-broom street sweepers were operated on a frequency of once per week (high frequency) in separate residential basins in Madison, Wis., to measure each sweeper's ability to not only reduce street-dirt yield but also improve the quality of stormwater runoff. A second mechanical-broom sweeper operating on a frequency of once per month (low frequency) was also evaluated to measure reductions in street-dirt yield only. A paired-basin study design was used to compare street-dirt and stormwater-quality samples during a calibration (no sweeping) and a treatment period (weekly sweeping). The basis of this paired-basin approach is that the relation between paired street-dirt and stormwater-quality loads for the control and tests basins is constant until a major change is made at one of the basins. At that time, a new relation will develop. Changes in either street-dirt and/or stormwater quality as a result of street sweeping could then be quantified by use of statistical tests. Street-dirt samples collected weekly during the calibration period and twice per week during the treatment period, once before and once after sweeping, were dried and separated into seven particle-size fractions ranging from less than 63 micrometers to greater than 2 millimeters. Street-dirt yield evaluation was based on a computed mass per unit length of pounds per curb-mile. An analysis of covariance was used to measure the significance of the effect of street sweeping at the end of the treatment period and to quantify any reduction in street-dirt yield. Both the regenerative-air and vacuum-assist sweepers produced reductions in street-dirt yield at the 5-percent significance level. Street-dirt yield was reduced by an average of 76, 63, and 20 percent in the regenerative-air, vacuum-assist, and high-frequency broom basins, respectively. The low-frequency broom basin showed no significant reductions in street-dirt yield. Sand-size particles (greater than 63 micrometers) recorded the greatest overall reduction. Street-sweeper pickup efficiency was determined by computing the difference between weekly street-dirt yields before and after sweeping cleaning. The regenerative-air and vacuum-assist sweepers had similar pickup efficiencies of 25 and 30 percent, respectively. The mechanical broom sweeper operating at high frequency was considerably less efficient, removing an average of 5 percent of street-dirt yield. The effects of street sweeping on stormwater quality were evaluated by use of statistical tests to compare event mean concentrations and loads computed for individual storms at the control and test basins. Loads were computed by multiplying the event mean concentrations by storm-runoff volumes. Only ammonia-nitrogen for the test basin with the vacuum-assist sweeper showed significant load increases over the control basin, at the 10-percent significance level, of 63 percent. Difficulty in detecting significant changes in constituent stormwater-quality loads could be due, in part, to the large amount of variability in the data. Coefficients of variation for the majority of constituent loads were greater than 1, indicating substantial variability. The ability to detect changes in constituent stormwater-quality loads was likely hampered by an inadequate number of samples in the data set. However, sediment transport in the storm-sewer pipe, sediment washing onto the street from other source areas, winter sand application, and sampling challenges were additional sources of variability within each study ba

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Organic waste compounds in streams: Occurrence and aquatic toxicity in different stream compartments, flow regimes, and land uses in southeast Wisconsin, 2006–9

An assessment of organic chemicals and aquatic toxicity in streams located near Milwaukee, Wisconsin, indicated high potential for adverse impacts on aquatic organisms that could be related to organic waste compounds (OWCs). OWCs used in agriculture, industry, and households make their way into surface waters through runoff, leaking septic-conveyance systems, regulated and unregulated discharges, and combined sewage overflows, among other sources. Many of these compounds are toxic at elevated concentrations and (or) known to have endocrine-disrupting potential, and often they occur as complex mixtures. There is still much to be learned about the chronic exposure effects of these compounds on aquatic populations. During 2006–9, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD), conducted a study to determine the occurrence and potential toxicity of OWCs in different stream compartments and flow regimes for streams in the Milwaukee area. Samples were collected at 17 sites and analyzed for a suite of 69 OWCs. Three types of stream compartments were represented: water column, streambed pore water, and streambed sediment. Water-column samples were subdivided by flow regime into stormflow and base-flow samples. One or more compounds were detected in all 196 samples collected, and 64 of the 69 compounds were detected at least once. Base-flow samples had the lowest detection rates, with a median of 12 compounds detected per sample. Median detection rates for stormflow, pore-water, and sediment samples were more than double that of base-flow samples. Compounds with the highest detection rates include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), insecticides, herbicides, and dyes/pigments. Elevated occurrence and concentrations of some compounds were detected in samples from urban sites, as compared with more rural sites, especially during stormflow conditions. These include the PAHs and the domestic waste-water-indicator compounds, among others. Urban runoff and storm-related leaks of sanitary sewers and (or) septic systems may be important sources of these and other compounds to the streams. The Kinnickinnic River, a highly urbanized site, had the highest detection rates and concentrations of compounds of all the sampled sites. The Milwaukee River near Cedarburg—one of the least urban sites—and the Outer Milwaukee Harbor site had the lowest detection rates and concentrations. Aquatic-toxicity benchmarks were exceeded for 12 of the 25 compounds with known benchmarks. The compounds with the greatest benchmark exceedances were the PAHs, both in terms of exceedance frequency (up to 93 percent for some compounds in sediment samples) and magnitude (concentrations up to 1,024 times greater than the benchmark value). Other compounds with toxicity-benchmark exceedances include Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (a plasticizer), 2-Methylnapthalene (a component of fuel and oil), phenol (an antimicrobial disinfectant with diverse uses), and 4-Nonylphenol (sum of all isomers; a detergent metabolite, among other uses). Analyzed as a mixture, the suite of PAH compounds were found to be potentially toxic for most non-base-flow samples. Bioassay tests were conducted on samples from 14 streams: Ceriodaphnia dubia in base-flow samples, Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyallela azteca in pore-water samples, and Hyallela azteca and Chironomus tentans in sediment samples. The greatest adverse effect was observed in tests with Chironomus tentans from sediment samples. The weight of Chironomus tentans after exposure to sediments decreased with increased OWC concentrations. This was most evident in the relation between PAH results and Chironomus tentans bioassay results for the majority of samples; however, solvents and flame retardants appeared to be important for one site each. These results for PAHs were consistent with assessment of PAH potency factors for sediment, indicating that PAHs were likely to have adverse effects on aquatic organisms in many of the streams studied.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Assessment of contaminant trends in plumes and wells and monitoring network optimization at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant, Sauk County, Wisconsin

Soil and groundwater at the Badger Army Ammunition Plant (BAAP), Sauk County, Wisconsin, were affected by several contaminants as a result of production and waste disposal practices common during its operation from 1942 to 1975. Three distinct plumes of contaminated groundwater originate on BAAP property and extend off-site, as identified by previous studies. Routine sampling of groundwater quality from a network of monitoring wells and off-site private wells has been performed since 1990, although the number of wells monitored and the monitoring frequency have varied as the approved monitoring plan was modified. During the period of monitoring from 1990 to 2018, numerous site investigations and remedial actions were conducted to address the sources of contamination, contaminated soils, and groundwater. Concentrations of contaminants reportedly decreased between 2000 and 2012 within all three plumes. Five or six contaminants of concern (COCs) were identified for each of the three plumes. An independent assessment of the contaminant plumes and of the monitoring network was conducted using groundwater-quality data collected from more than 600 wells between 2000 and 2018. In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Army Environmental Command, a consistent data aggregation and interpolation scheme was applied to derive the likely maximum groundwater plume extents in four 3-year time periods between 2000 and 2018. The plume extent was defined by the Enforcement Standard for each COC and represents the maximum concentration observed in each 3-year time period. The plume boundary analysis shows that the spatial extent of groundwater contamination decreased for most COCs during the study period. Some plume boundaries are not well delineated by the existing monitoring network, particularly the downgradient edge of the Propellant Burning Ground plume. Maps identify the plume boundary in each time period, the sampling well network used to delineate the plume, and wells that were sampled in the 2010–12 period but not sampled in the 2015–18 period. A series of statistical analyses using the Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System, version 3.0, program were applied to the available COC concentration data for two distinct periods, 2000 to 2012 and 2013 to 2018, with the break between periods coinciding with changes to the monitoring network in 2013. Trends in the concentration of COCs in individual wells varied, although generally more wells had decreasing than had increasing concentrations for most COCs in both time periods. The exceptions were ethyl ether in the 2004–12 period and 2,6-dinitrotoluene in the 2013–18 period, for which more wells had an increasing trend. Spatial moment analysis of concentration data from the well network was used to assess the stability of each plume for the COCs. During the 2000–12 period, most of the contaminant plumes for which data were sufficient to complete the analysis were either decreasing or stable in mass and size. The exceptions were carbon tetrachloride (associated solely with the Propellant Burning Ground plume) and 2,4-dinitrotoluene and 2,6-dinitrotoluene (in the Deterrent Burning Ground plume), which showed an increasing trend in mass. No COCs showed an increasing trend in plume mass in the 2013–18 period. Some wells with increasing trends in concentration or with concentrations greater than the enforcement standard are near the tail of a plume, where increased monitoring may be of value to better define future plume boundaries. A spatial optimization analysis covering the 2013–18 period identified six wells that provided information redundant to that from other wells. A temporal optimization analysis identified optimal sampling frequencies for 125 wells. Remedial actions directed at the Propellant Burning Ground plume coincided with a general decrease in plume mass and size, although in specific areas and depths, the plume size for specific contaminants may still be increasing.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Water Quality and Hydrology of Silver Lake, Barron County, Wisconsin, With Special Emphasis on Responses of a Terminal Lake to Changes in Phosphorus Loading and Water Level

Silver Lake is typically an oligotrophic-to-mesotrophic, soft-water, terminal lake in northwestern Wisconsin. A terminal lake is a closed-basin lake with surface-water inflows but no surface-water outflows to other water bodies. After several years with above-normal precipitation, very high water levels caused flooding of several buildings near the lake and erosion of soil around much of the shoreline, which has been associated with a degradation in water quality (increased phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and decreased water clarity). To gain a better understanding of what caused the very high water levels and degradation in water quality and collect information to better understand the lake and protect it from future degradation, the U.S. Geological Survey did a detailed study from 2004 to 2008. This report describes results of the study; specifically, lake-water quality, historical changes in water level, water and phosphorus budgets for the two years monitored in the study, results of model simulations that demonstrate how changes in phosphorus inputs affect lake-water quality, and the relative importance of changes in hydrology and changes in the watershed to the water quality of the lake. From 1987 to about 1996, water quality in Silver Lake was relatively stable. Since 1996, however, summer average total phosphorus concentrations increased from about 0.008 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.018 mg/L in 2003, before decreasing to 0.011 mg/L in 2008. From 1996 to 2003, Secchi depths decreased from about 14 to 7.4 feet, before increasing to about 19 feet in 2008. Therefore, Silver Lake is typically classified as oligotrophic to mesotrophic; however, during 2002-4, the lake was classified as mesotrophic to eutrophic. Because productivity in Silver Lake is limited by phosphorus, phosphorus budgets for the lake were constructed for monitoring years 2005 and 2006. The average annual input of phosphorus was 216 pounds: 78 percent from tributary and nearshore runoff and 22 percent from atmospheric deposition. Because Silver Lake is hydraulically mounded above the local groundwater system, little or no input of phosphorus to the lake is from groundwater and septic systems. Silver Lake had previously been incorrectly described as a groundwater flowthrough lake. Phosphorus budgets were constructed for a series of dry years (low water levels) and a series of wet years (high water levels). About 6 times more phosphorus was input to the lake during wet years with high water levels than during the dry years. Phosphorus from erosion represented 13-20 percent of the phosphorus input during years with very high water levels. Results from the Canfield and Bachman eutrophication model and Carlson trophic state index equations demonstrated that water quality in Silver Lake directly responds to changes in external phosphorus input, with the percent change in chlorophyll a being about 80 percent of the percent change in total phosphorus input and the change in Secchi depth and total phosphorus concentrations being about 40 and 50 percent of the percent change in input, respectively. Therefore, changes in phosphorus input should impact water quality. Specific scenarios were simulated with the models to describe the effects of natural (climate-driven) and anthropogenic (human-induced) changes. Results of these scenarios demonstrated that several years of above-normal precipitation cause sustained high water levels and a degradation in water quality, part of which is due to erosion of the shoreline. Results also demonstrated that 1) changes in tributary and nearshore runoff have a dramatic effect on lake-water quality, 2) diverting water into the lake to increase the water level is expected to degrade the water quality, and 3) removal of water to decrease the water level of the lake is expected to have little effect on water quality. Fluctuations in water levels since 1967, when records began for the lake, are representative

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Changes in phosphorus and suspended solids loading in the Fox River, northeastern Wisconsin, 1989–2021

The entire Lower Fox River and inner bay of Green Bay, in northeastern Wisconsin, have been listed as impaired by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) for low dissolved oxygen and degraded habitat, with total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations listed as the likely causes of these impairments. To restore the Fox River and Green Bay, total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) were developed for TP and TSS, and actions were taken throughout the Fox River Basin to improve water quality. In this study, we estimated concentrations and loads of TP, dissolved phosphorus (DP), and TSS at the Lake Winnebago outlet, De Pere, and the mouth of the Fox River from water year (WY) 1989 to WY 2021; described changes in concentrations and loads through time during this period; and compared the concentrations and loads for the most recent 5-year period (WYs 2017–21) with the WDNR criteria for TP impairment and the TMDL loading goals. TP, DP, TSS, and total suspended sediment concentration data were obtained from NEW Water (the brand of the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District), the WDNR, and the U.S. Geological Survey and combined into one dataset. All the TSS and total suspended sediment data were used together with no adjustment factor and are referred to as simply “TSS.” During WYs 1989–2021, mean annual TP concentrations increased from 0.089 milligram per liter (mg/L) at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.128 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River, and concentrations decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The most recent (WYs 2017–21) median May–October TP concentrations were just less than the 0.1-mg/L WDNR criterion for TP impairment at the two upstream sites (Lake Winnebago outlet and De Pere) but were slightly greater than the criterion for impairment at the mouth of the Fox River. Mean annual DP concentrations increased from 0.024 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.036 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River. DP concentrations increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 at the Lake Winnebago outlet but not at the other sites. Mean annual TSS concentrations increased from 13.5 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 23.9 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River and have decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The recent median May–October TSS concentrations were less than the 20-mg/L WDNR criterion for impairment at all three sites. Streamflow and TP, DP, and TSS loads increased from the Lake Winnebago outlet to the mouth of the Fox River (TP loads increased from 360,000 to 557,000 kilograms per year [kg/yr], DP loads increased from 114,000 to 162,000 kg/yr, and TSS loads increased from 60,400 metric tons per year [t/yr] to 122,600 t/yr). At the Lake Winnebago outlet, DP concentrations and TP and DP loads increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 because of an increase in DP concentrations in Lake Winnebago resulting from the lake becoming nitrogen limited as a result of biological processes not consuming the DP in the lake and an increase in streamflow leaving the lake. Although TP and TSS concentrations decreased at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River, there was little change in the loading because of an increase in flow. Flow-normalized TP and TSS loads at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River decreased possibly because of implementation of agricultural conservation management practices, reductions in point-source discharges in its drainage basin, and deposition of sediment and phosphorus in recently dredged areas of the Lower Fox River. Additional studies are needed to determine the relative importance of each of these actions and whether the decrease in concentrations and flow-normalized loads will continue to be observed in the Fox River.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Geomorphic, flood, and groundwater-flow characteristics of Bayfield Peninsula streams, Wisconsin, and implications for brook-trout habitat

In 2002–03, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study of the geomorphic, flood, and groundwater-flow characteristics of five Bayfield Peninsula streams, Wisconsin (Cranberry River, Bark River, Raspberry River, Sioux River, and Whittlesey Creek) to determine the physical limitations for brook-trout habitat. The goals of the study were threefold: (1) to describe geomorphic characteristics and processes, (2) to determine how land-cover characteristics affect flood peaks, and (3) to determine how regional groundwater flow patterns affect base flow. The geomorphic characterization consisted of analyses of historical aerial photographs and General Land Office Survey notes, observations from helicopter video footage, surveys of valley cross sections, and coring. Sources of sediment were identified from the helicopter video and field surveys, and past erosion-control techniques were evaluated. Geomorphic processes, such as runoff sediment erosion, transport, and deposition, are driven by channel location within the drainage network, texture of glacial deposits, and proximity to postglacial lake shorelines; these processes have historically increased because of decreases in upland forest cover and channel roughness. Sources of sediment for all studied streams mainly came from bank, terrace, or bluff erosion along main stem reaches and along feeder tributaries that bisect main-stem entrenched valley sides. Bluff, terrace, and bank erosion were the major sources of sediment to Whittlesey Creek and the Sioux River. No active bluff erosion was observed on the Cranberry River or the Bark River but anecdotal information suggests that landslides occasionally happen on the Cranberry River. For the Bark River, sources of sediment were somewhat evenly divided among road crossings (bridges, culverts, and unimproved forest lanes), terrace erosion, bank erosion, and incision along upper main stems and feeder channels along valley sides. Evaluation of past erosion-control techniques indicated that bluffs were stabilized by a combination of artificial hardening and bioengineering of the bluff base and reducing mass wasting of the tops of the bluffs. Flood hydrographs for the Cranberry River were simulated for four land-cover scenarios—late 20th century (1992–93), presettlement (before 1870), peak agriculture (1928), and developed (25 percent urban). Results were compared to previous simulations of flood peaks for Whittlesey Creek and for North Fish Creek (southern adjacent basin to Whittlesey Creek). Even though most uplands are presently forested, flood peaks simulated for 1992–93 were 1.5 to 2 times larger than presettlement flood peaks. The increased flood peaks caused (1) increased incision along upper main stems and tributaries that bisect entrenched valley sides, (2) bluff and terrace erosion along reaches with entrenched valleys, (3) overbank deposition and bar formation in middle and lower main stems, and (4) aggradation in mouth areas. A base-flow survey was conducted and a groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bayfield Peninsula to delineate groundwater contributing areas. A deep aquifer system, which includes thick deposits of sand and the upper part of the bedrock, is recharged through the permeable sands in the center of the peninsula. Base flow is unevenly distributed among the Bayfield streams and depends on the amount of channel incision and the proximity of the channels to the recharge area and coarse outwash deposits. Groundwater contributing areas for the five streams do not coincide with surface-water-contributing areas. About 89 percent of total recharge to the deep aquifer system discharges to Bayfield streams; the remaining 11 percent directly discharges to Lake Superior. Historical land-cover changes have had negligible effects on groundwater-flow from the deep aquifer system. Available brook-trout habitat is dependent on the locations of groundwater upwellings, the sizes of flood peaks, and sediment loads. Management practices that focus on reducing or slowing runoff from upland areas and increasing channel roughness have potential to reduce flood peaks, erosion, and sedimentation and improve brook-trout habitat in all Bayfield Peninsula streams.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system of the Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow system and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Menominee Indian Reservation. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, to contribute to the fundamental understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system, including groundwater/surface-water interactions, and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional groundwater-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate groundwater-flow patterns at multiple scales. Simulations made with the regional model reproduce groundwater levels and stream base flows representative of recent conditions (1970–2013) and illustrate groundwater-flow patterns with maps of (1) the simulated water table and groundwater-flow directions, (2) probabilistic areas contributing recharge to high-capacity pumped wells, and (3) estimation of the extent of infiltrated wastewater from treatment lagoons. The groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including surficial unconsolidated aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from existing high-capacity production wells. Areas contributing recharge to pumped high-capacity wells on the Menominee Indian Reservation were delineated by tracking simulated water particles from the water table to wells in combination with Monte Carlo techniques, and maps of the probability of capture for each well nest were produced. Groundwater-agebased areas contributing recharge to wells were simulated by using the calibrated set of parameters and porosity values adjusted to account for bias in simulated saturated thickness. Simulations were performed for current (2013) pumping rates. The simulations show a range in sensitivity of the simulated areas contributing recharge to wells given the parameters evaluated through the Monte Carlo analysis. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for the villages of Zoar and Neopit are long and narrow, with a sharp gradation from high to low probability of capture. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for Middle Village and the village of Keshena exhibit a sharp gradation from high to low probability over a relatively small area between the well and a local groundwater mound. The highest probability areas contributing recharge to the supply wells for the Villages of Onekewat and Redwing are in the immediate vicinity of the wells. These wells also have an extensive area with low probability for capturing water that is likely due to a locally low hydraulic gradient and the large degree of uncertainty associated with the lakebed resistance parameters that control interaction between groundwater and local lakes. Additional field investigations and associated local model refinements would facilitate further reductions in uncertainty associated with simulated areas contributing recharge to the wells. The likely extent of the Neopit wastewater plume was simulated by using the groundwater-flow model and Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the sensitivity of predictive simulations to a range of model parameter values. Wastewater infiltrated from the currently operating lagoons flows predominantly south toward Tourtillotte Creek. Some of the infiltrated wastewater is simulated as having a low probability of flowing beneath Tourtillotte Creek to the nearby West Branch Wolf River. Results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are considered to be qualitative because the method only considers advective flow and does not account for processes affecting contaminant transport in porous media. Therefore, results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are sensitive to the number of particles used to represent flow from the lagoon and the resolution of a synthetic grid used for the analysis. Nonetheless, it is expected that the qualitative results may be of use for identifying potential downgradient areas of concern that can then be evaluated using the quantitative “area contributing recharge to wells” method or traditional contaminant-transport simulations.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Estimation of natural historical flows for the Manitowish River near Manitowish Waters, Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is charged with oversight of dam operations throughout Wisconsin and is considering modifications to the operating orders for the Rest Lake Dam in Vilas County, Wisconsin. State law requires that the operation orders be tied to natural low flows at the dam. Because the presence of the dam confounds measurement of natural flows, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, installed streamflow-gaging stations and developed two statistical methods to improve estimates of natural flows at the Rest Lake Dam. Two independent methods were used to estimate daily natural flow for the Manitowish River approximately 1 mile downstream of the Rest Lake Dam. The first method was an adjusted drainage-area ratio method, which used a regression analysis that related measured water yield (flow divided by watershed area) from short-term (2009–11) gaging stations upstream of the Manitowish Chain of Lakes to the water yield from two nearby long-term gaging stations in order to extend the flow record (1991–2011). In this approach, the computed flows into the Chain of Lakes at the upstream gaging stations were multiplied by a coefficient to account for the monthly hydrologic contributions (precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, and runoff) associated with the additional watershed area between the upstream gaging stations and the dam at the outlet of the Chain of Lakes (Rest Lake Dam). The second method used to estimate daily natural flow at the Rest Lake Dam was a water-budget approach, which used lake stage and dam outflow data provided by the dam operator. A water-budget model was constructed and then calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation program by matching simulated flow-duration statistics with measured flow-duration statistics at the upstream gaging stations. After calibration of the water-budget model, the model was used to compute natural flow at the dam from 1973 to 2011. Daily natural flows at the dam, as computed by the adjusted drainage-area ratio method and the water-budget method, were used to compute monthly flow-duration values for the period of historical data available for each method. Monthly flow-durations provide a means for evaluating the frequency and range in flows that have been observed for each month over the course of many years. Both methods described the pattern and timing of measured high-flow and low-flow events at the upstream gaging stations. The adjusted drainage-area ratio method generally had smaller residual errors across the full range of observed flows and had smaller monthly biases than the water-budget method. Although it is not possible to evaluate which method may be more "correct" for estimating monthly natural flows at the dam, comparisons between the results of each method indicate that the adjusted drainage-area ratio method may be susceptible to biases at high flows due to isolated storms outside of the Manitowish River watershed. Conversely, it appears that the water-budget method may be susceptible to biases at low flows because of its sensitivity to the accuracy of reported lake stage and outflows, as well as effects of upstream diversions that could not be fully compensated for with this method. Results from both methods are useful for understanding the natural flow patterns at the dam. Flows for both methods have similar patterns, with high median flows in spring and low median flows in late summer. Similarly, the range from monthly high-flow durations to low-flow durations increases during spring, decreases during summer, and increases again during fall. These seasonal patterns illustrate a challenge with interpreting a single value of natural low flow. That is, a natural low flow computed for September is not representative of a natural low flow in April. Moreover, alteration of natural flows caused by storing water in the Chain of Lakes during spring and releasing it in fall causes a change in the timing of high and low flows compared with natural conditions. That is, the lowest reported dam outflows occurred in spring and highest reported outflows occurred in fall, which is opposite the natural patterns.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2008

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Butternut Lake, Price and Ashland Counties, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of internal phosphorus loading in a polymictic lake

Butternut Lake is a 393-hectare, eutrophic to hypereutrophic lake in northcentral Wisconsin. After only minor improvements in water quality were observed following several actions taken to reduce the nutrient inputs to the lake, a detailed study was conducted from 2002 to 2007 by the U.S. Geological Survey to better understand how the lake functions. The goals of this study were to describe the water quality and hydrology of the lake, quantify external and internal sources of phosphorus, and determine the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake. Since the early 1970s, the water quality of Butternut Lake has changed little in response to nutrient reductions from the watershed. The largest changes were in near-surface total phosphorus concentrations: August concentrations decreased from about 0.09 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to about 0.05 mg/L, but average summer concentrations decreased only from about 0.055—0.060 mg/L to about 0.045 mg/L. Since the early 1970s, only small changes were observed in chlorophyll a concentrations and water clarity (Secchi depths). All major water and phosphorus sources, including the internal release of phosphorus from the sediments (internal loading), were measured directly, and minor sources were estimated to construct detailed water and phosphorus budgets for the lake during monitoring years (MY) 2003 and 2004. During these years, Butternut Creek, Spiller Creek, direct precipitation, small tributaries and near-lake drainage area, and ground water contributed about 62, 20, 8, 7, and 3 percent of the inflow, respectively. The average annual load of phosphorus to the lake was 2,540 kilograms (kg), of which 1,590 kg came from external sources (63 percent) and 945 kg came from the sediments in the lake (37 percent). Of the total external sources, Butternut Creek, Spiller Creek, small tributaries and near-lake drainage area, septic systems, precipitation, and ground water contributed about 63, 23, 9, 3, 1, and 1 percent, respectively. Because of the high internal phosphorus loading, the eutrophication models used in this study were unable to simulate the observed water-quality characteristics in the lake without incorporating this source of phosphorus. However, when internal loading of phosphorus was added to the BATHTUB model, it accurately simulated the average water-quality characteristics measured in MY 2003 and 2004. Model simulations demonstrated a relatively linear response between in-lake total phosphorus concentrations and external phosphorus loading; however, the changes in concentrations were smaller than the changes in external phosphorus loadings (about 25—40 percent of the change in phosphorus loading). Changes in chlorophyll a concentrations, the percentage of days with algal blooms, and Secchi depths were nonlinear and had a greater response to reductions in phosphorus loading than to increases in phosphorus loading. A 50-percent reduction in external phosphorus loading caused an 18-percent decrease in chlorophyll a concentrations, a 41-percent decrease in the percentage of days with algal blooms, and a 12-percent increase in Secchi depth. When the additional internal phosphorus loading was removed from model simulations, all of these constituents showed a much greater response to changes in external phosphorus loading. Because of Butternut Lake's morphometry, it is polymictic, which means it mixes frequently and does not develop stable thermal stratification throughout the summer. This characteristic makes it more vulnerable than dimictic lakes, which mix in spring and fall and develop stable thermal stratification during summer, to the high internal phosphorus loading that has resulted from historically high, nonnatural, external phosphorus loading. In polymictic lakes, the phosphorus released from the sediments is mixed into the upper part of the lake throughout summer. Once Butternut Lake became hypereutrophic (very productive), it became very difficult to alter its trophic state through reductions in external phosphorus loading because the high internal loading does not respond quickly to reductions in external nutrient loading. For Butternut Lake to become significantly less productive (change to a borderline mesotrophic/eutrophic state) a combined approach to reduce or eliminate internal phosphorus loading and reduce the external phosphorus loading by about 50 percent is needed.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2016

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model. SNTEMP was used to simulate daily stream temperature in selected stream reaches in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2005. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the years 2010 through 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the simulation period showed increases in maximum and minimum air temperature. Scenarios of future precipitation, however, did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased with time for both temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snowmelt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions, with relatively less drying expected in groundwater-fed systems. Groundwater discharge in the current upper cold-water reaches of Black Earth Creek is expected to decrease; flooding in downstream reaches may appreciably increase. The magnitude of changes in forecasted flow and associated groundwater/surface-water interaction is dependent on the General Circulation Model and emission scenario chosen. Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2007

Use of chemical analysis and assays of semipermeable membrane devices extracts to assess the response of bioavailable organic pollutants in streams to urbanization in six metropolitan areas of the United States

Studies to assess the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems are being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The overall objectives of these studies are to (1) determine how hydrologic, geomorphic, water quality, habitat, and biological characteristics respond to land-use changes associated with urbanization in specific environmental settings, and (2) compare these responses across environmental settings. As part of an integrated assessment, semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed in streams along a gradient of urban land-use intensity in and around Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and Denver-Fort Collins, Colorado, in 2003; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Portland, Oregon, in 2004. Sites were selected to avoid point-source discharge and to minimize natural variability within each of the six metropolitan areas. In addition to standard chemical analysis for hydrophobic organic contaminants, three assays were used to address mixtures and potential toxicity: (1) Fluoroscan provides an estimate of the total concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); (2) the P450RGS assay indicates the presence and levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists; and (3) Microtox® measures toxicological effects on photo-luminescent bacteria. Of the 140 compounds targeted or identified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis in this study, 67 were not detected. In terms of numbers and types of compounds, the following were detected: 2 wood preservatives, 6 insecticides (parent compounds), 5 herbicides, 22 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 2 dibenzofurans, 4 polychlorinated biphenyls, 7 compounds associated with fragrances or personal care products, 4 steroids associated with wastewater, 5 polydibromated diphenyl ethers (flame retardants), 3 plasticizers, 3 antimicrobials/disinfectants, and 3 detergent metabolites. Of the 73 compounds detected and three assays utilized, 29 were detected in 25 percent or more of the streams and were strongly related to increases in urban intensity (defined as having a Spearman’s rho > 0.5 with percent urban land cover) in at least one of the six metropolitan areas investigated. These 29 endpoints included 16 PAHs, a wood preservative (pentachloroanisole), 2 insecticides (chlorpyrifos and chlordane), 3 herbicides (benfluralin, trifluralin, and dacthal), a synthetic musk (hexahydrohexamethylcyclopentabenzopyran, HHCB), 2 furans (methyldibenzofuran and benzo[b]naphtho[2,3-d]furan), and a flame retardant (BDE 47). In addition, the number of compounds detected and results of the Fluoroscan and P450RGS assays were strongly related to urban intensity. Average water concentrations estimated from SPMDs were compared to screening benchmarks for the protection of human health and aquatic life; of the 14 compounds with available benchmarks, 3 compounds (anthracene, dieldrin, and diazinon) exceeded those levels in one or more streams. Both dieldrin and anthracene exceeded their respective benchmarks in seven streams, and diazinon in only one stream. There were more exceedances in Milwaukee-Green Bay and Raleigh-Durham than in the other metropolitan areas, and there were no exceedances in Dallas-Fort Worth. The six metropolitan areas studied differed in the number and types of endpoints related to urban intensity, probably from a combination of factors governing source strength, transport, and fate of hydrophobic compounds. The number of endpoints strongly related to urban intensity ranged from 3 in Dallas-Fort Worth and Portland to 21 in Raleigh-Durham. High frequencies of detection and strong correlations with urban land cover for pyrogenic PAHs (such as unsubstituted 4-ringed PAHs) in all six metropolitan areas indicate that these compounds are an important component of urbanization, regardless of location. Pentachloroanisole, dibenzofurans, and petrogenic PAHs (alkylated PAHs and heterocyclic dibenzothiophenes) were frequently detected and strongly related to urban intensity in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee-Green Bay, and Denver-Fort Collins. Two insecticides were related to urban intensity: chlorpyrifos in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Dallas-Fort Worth; and chlordane in Raleigh-Durham. Three herbicides were strongly related to urban intensity: trifluralin in Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham; benfluralin in Atlanta, and dacthal in Denver-Fort Collins. The detection frequencies for most wastewater indicator compounds were too low to establish relations with urban intensity. Of the wastewater compounds analyzed, HHCB in Raleigh-Durham and Denver-Fort Collins, and BDE 47 in Denver-Fort Collins and Dallas-Forth Worth, had the strongest relations with urban intensity. In addition to pyrogenic PAHs, levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists (as measured by the P450RGS assay) were strongly related to increasing urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. PAHs were the only group of aryl hydrocarbon agonists consistently detected and related with urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. It is unknown which compounds in the SPMDs caused the increased response in the P450RGS assay because the SPMDs likely contained many aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists not quantified by chemical analysis. It is clear that bioavailable, aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists increase in streams with increasing urban intensity in the basin. Potential toxicity mediated by this metabolic pathway should be considered in integrated assessments of the response of aquatic biota to urbanization.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and interaction of groundwater and surface water on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation, Wisconsin

The Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and Indian Health Service are interested in improving the understanding of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interaction on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation (Reservation) in southwest Vilas County and southeast Iron County, Wisconsin, with particular interest in an understanding of the potential for contamination of groundwater supply wells and the fate of wastewater that is infiltrated from treatment lagoons on the Reservation. This report describes the construction, calibration, and application of a regional groundwater flow model used to simulate the shallow groundwater flow system of the Reservation and water-quality results for groundwater and surface-water samples collected near a system of waste-water-treatment lagoons. Groundwater flows through a permeable glacial aquifer that ranges in thickness from 60 to more than 200 feet (ft). Seepage and drainage lakes are common in the area and influence groundwater flow patterns on the Reservation. A two-dimensional, steady-state analytic element groundwater flow model was constructed using the program GFLOW. The model was calibrated by matching target water levels and stream base flows through the use of the parameter-estimation program, PEST. Simulated results illustrate that groundwater flow within most of the Reservation is toward the Bear River and the chain of lakes that feed the Bear River. Results of analyses of groundwater and surface-water samples collected downgradient from the wastewater infiltration lagoons show elevated levels of ammonia and dissolved phosphorus. In addition, wastewater indicator chemicals detected in three downgradient wells and a small downgradient stream indicate that infiltrated wastewater is moving southwest of the lagoons toward Moss Lake. Potential effects of extended wet and dry periods (within historical ranges) were evaluated by adjusting precipitation and groundwater recharge in the model and comparing the resulting simulated lake stage and water budgets to stages and water budgets from the calibrated model. Simulated lake water budgets and water level changes illustrate the importance of understanding the position of a lake within the hydrologic system (headwater or downstream), the type of lake (surface-water drainage or seepage lake), and the role of groundwater in dampening the effects of large-scale changes in weather patterns on lake levels. Areas contributing recharge to drinking-water supply wells on the Reservation were delineated using forward particle tracking from the water table to the well. Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses were used to produce maps showing the probability of groundwater capture for areas around each well nest. At the Main Pumphouse site near the Village of Lac du Flambeau, most of the area contributing recharge to the wells occurs downgradient from a large wetland between the wells and the wastewater infiltration lagoons. Nonetheless, a small potential for the wells to capture infiltrated wastewater is apparent when considering uncertainty in the model parameter values. At the West Pumphouse wells south of Flambeau Lake, most of the area contributing recharge is between the wells and Tippecanoe Lake. The extent of infiltrated wastewater from two infiltration lagoons was tracked using the groundwater flow model and Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses. Wastewater infiltrated from the lagoons flows predominantly south toward Moss Lake as it integrates with the regional groundwater flow system. The wastewater-plume-extent simulations support the area-contributing-recharge simulations, indicating that there is a possibility, albeit at low probability, that some wastewater could be captured by water-supply wells. Comparison of simulated water-table contours indicate that the lagoons may mound the water table approximately 4 ft, with diminishing levels of mounding outward from the lagoons. Four scenarios, representing potential alternatives for wastewater management, were simulated (at current discharge rates) to evaluate the potential extent of wastewater in the aquifer and discharge to surface-water bodies associated with each management scenario. Wastewater simulated to infiltrate through a hypothetical diffuser below a wetland south of the current lagoons appears to discharge to the overlying wetland and would likely discharge to Moss Lake as overland flow. Wastewater simulated to discharge to a small lake (Mindy Lake) between Moss and Fence Lakes appears to spread radically over a large area between the lakes. Wastewater simulated to discharge to lagoons south and northeast of the current lagoons also appears to spread radially, but the areas of the aquifer with the highest probability of encountering waste-water contamination would likely be between the lagoons and the nearest lake, where the wastewater would eventually discharge. Probability results for the wastewater-plume-extent scenarios are sensitive to the number of mathematical water particles used to represent infiltrating wastewater and the level of detail in the synthetic grid used for the probability analysis. Thus, probability results from wastewater-plume-extent simulations are qualitative only; however, it is expected that illustrations of relatively high or low probability will be useful as a general guide for decision making. Management problems requiring quantitative estimates of probability are best re-cast into problems evaluating the area that contributes recharge to the location of interest, which is not dependent upon the number of simulated particles or the resolution of a synthetic grid.

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