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USGS2024

Invisible hand of sampling for management: Underlying needs to survey a threatened seabird can bias aggregated data

Aim Surveying for a species of concern ahead of proposed activities that alter its habitat is routine practice in conservation and management. Such surveys may accumulate large datasets that could further elucidate trends in abundance and distribution. However, the as-needed surveying of proposed activities may impart a sample site selection bias on the data if used for another purpose. Management of a threatened, forest-nesting seabird offered an example of this. Here we assessed how resource management planning and survey requirements can bias clearance monitoring survey data collected prior to proposed timber harvests, if those data are used for other purposes. Location Oregon and Washington, USA. Taxon Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ). Methods To assess how timber planning and other factors influenced marbled murrelet survey location selection, we used logistic regression models to examine habitat associations of marbled murrelet survey sites ( n = 9178) encompassing proposed timber harvests, and the survey stations ( n = 38,923) therein, across the murrelet's inland range in Washington and Oregon, USA between 1989 and 2021. We then simulated the effect this selective sampling might have on assessments of occupancy trends. Results Most habitat characteristics considered did influence where surveys were located, with distance to roads often being the strongest predictor of survey location. The strength of selection for each covariate changed over time, such that a habitat characteristic strongly influenced location selection in a year but was less influential in another year. The simulation analysis suggested that the non-random selection of survey sites could profoundly bias assessments of occupancy trends. Conclusions When using these clearance monitoring survey data– or any data–beyond their original purpose, careful consideration should be given to the scope of inference provided and analytical methods used, to ensure that observed trends are the product of biological processes and not biased by sampling artefacts.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2014

How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty

Conservation decision-makers face a trade-off between spending limited funds on direct management action, or gaining new information in an attempt to improve management performance in the future. Value-of-information analysis can help to resolve this trade-off by evaluating how much management performance could improve if new information was gained. Value-of-information analysis has been used extensively in other disciplines, but there are only a few examples where it has informed conservation planning, none of which have used it to evaluate the financial value of gaining new information. We address this gap by applying value-of-information analysis to the management of a declining koala Phascolarctos cinereus population. Decision-makers responsible for managing this population face uncertainty about survival and fecundity rates, and how habitat cover affects mortality threats. The value of gaining new information about these uncertainties was calculated using a deterministic matrix model of the koala population to find the expected population growth rate if koala mortality threats were optimally managed under alternative model hypotheses, which represented the uncertainties faced by koala managers. Gaining new information about survival and fecundity rates and the effect of habitat cover on mortality threats will do little to improve koala management. Across a range of management budgets, no more than 1·7% of the budget should be spent on resolving these uncertainties. The value of information was low because optimal management decisions were not sensitive to the uncertainties we considered. Decisions were instead driven by a substantial difference in the cost efficiency of management actions. The value of information was up to forty times higher when the cost efficiencies of different koala management actions were similar. Synthesis and applications . This study evaluates the ecological and financial benefits of gaining new information to inform a conservation problem. We also theoretically demonstrate that the value of reducing uncertainty is highest when it is not clear which management action is the most cost efficient. This study will help expand the use of value-of-information analyses in conservation by providing a cost efficiency metric by which to evaluate research or monitoring.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2012

Fish species of greatest conservation need in wadeable Iowa streams: current status and effectiveness of Aquatic Gap Program distribution models

Effective conservation of fish species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) requires an understanding of species–habitat relationships and distributional trends. Thus, modeling the distribution of fish species across large spatial scales may be a valuable tool for conservation planning. Our goals were to evaluate the status of 10 fish SGCN in wadeable Iowa streams and to test the effectiveness of Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) species distribution models. We sampled fish assemblages from 86 wadeable stream segments in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa during 2009 and 2010 to provide contemporary, independent fish species presence–absence data. The frequencies of occurrence in stream segments where species were historically documented varied from 0.0% for redfin shiner Lythrurus umbratilis to 100.0% for American brook lamprey Lampetra appendix , with a mean of 53.0%, suggesting that the status of Iowa fish SGCN is highly variable. Cohen's kappa values and other model performance measures were calculated by comparing field-collected presence–absence data with IAGAP model–predicted presences and absences for 12 fish SGCN. Kappa values varied from 0.00 to 0.50, with a mean of 0.15. The models only predicted the occurrences of banded darter Etheostoma zonale , southern redbelly dace Phoxinus erythrogaster , and longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae more accurately than would be expected by chance. Overall, the accuracy of the twelve models was low, with a mean correct classification rate of 58.3%. Poor model performance probably reflects the difficulties associated with modeling the distribution of rare species and the inability of the large-scale habitat variables used in IAGAP models to explain the variation in fish species occurrences. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the confidence in species distribution model predictions with an independent data set and the need for long-term monitoring to better understand the distributional trends and habitat associations of fish SGCN.

Iowa↗

USGS2022

Seasonal context of bristly cave crayfish Cambarus setosus habitat use and life history

Cave crayfishes are important members of groundwater communities, but many cave crayfishes are threatened or endangered. Unfortunately, we lack basic life history and ecological data that are needed for developing conservation plans for most cave crayfishes, especially the role of seasonal and annual fluctuations in structuring populations. Therefore, we determined the seasonal life history and habitat use of Cambarus setosus in Smallin Civil War Cave, Christian County, Missouri, United States. We conducted visual crayfish surveys over a 400 m section of the cave from 2006 to 2019. We used multinomial logit, multiple linear regression, and logistic regression models to estimate crayfish substrate, water depth, and water velocity use, respectively. All models included sex, carapace length, season, distance into the cave, and interactions between all variables and sex as predictor terms. We also used t-tests to assess morphometric differences between male and female crayfish. Six mark-recapture events (2010 to 2019) were used to estimate population sizes using a nil-recapture model. We attempted to age eight individuals using gastric mill bands, but annual bands were not discernable. We found reproductively active males during all seasons. We captured one ovigerous female during the spring, though ovigerous females were observed during show cave tours during spring, summer, and autumn. Male C. setosus were more likely to use homogenous and heterogeneous rock substrates and shallower and calmer water when compared to females; however, these relationships varied based on distance into the cave and season. Females sampled were significantly larger than males, and males regenerated chelae more often. Minimum population size estimates ranged from 9 to 159 individuals and indicated the population was relatively stable. Our data provide both a baseline population estimate for comparison with future studies and valuable trait information that is often lacking but useful for developing conservation efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

Nebraska↗

USGS2021

Migration patterns and wintering distribution of common loons breeding in the Upper Midwest

Identification of geographic linkages among breeding, migratory and wintering common loon Gavia immer populations is needed to inform regional and national conservation planning efforts and compensation of loons lost during marine oil spill events. Satellite telemetry and archival geolocator tags were used to determine the migration patterns and wintering locations of breeding adult and young of the year juvenile common loons captured and marked on lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Adult loons typically traveled from breeding lakes, often via larger staging lakes, to the Great Lakes (primarily Lake Michigan) and then on to wintering areas. Most radiomarked juvenile common loons utilized natal lakes or local lakes through mid-November. Subsequently, the first fall migration of juvenile loons was generally initiated later, and more direct and quicker to wintering areas relative to adults. Among adult (n = 103) and juvenile (n = 23) loons that completed fall migration, most wintered in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with smaller proportions wintering off the southern Atlantic Coast or impoundments in the southeastern United States. Spring migration of adults to breeding lakes was less prolonged than fall migration, with adult male loons tending to depart wintering areas earlier than adult females. Juvenile common loons migrated during their first spring from wintering sites in the GOM to summer in the Gulf of St Lawrence/Nova Scotia Coastal region. Juvenile mortality was largely linked to parasitic infection and emaciation; spring appeared to be a survival bottleneck among juvenile loons monitored in our study. Our results identify several areas where common loon conservation efforts could be directed to protect key habitats and minimize stressors during the non-breeding period.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

New York↗

USGS2022

Reassessing perennial cover as a driver of duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region

Conservation plans designed to sustain North American duck populations prominently feature a key hypothesis stating that the amount of the landscape in perennial cover surrounding upland duck nests positively influences nest survival rates. Recent conflicting research testing this hypothesis creates ambiguity regarding which management actions to pursue and where to prioritize conservation delivery. We compared existing models and new formulations of existing models explaining spatiotemporal variation in nest survival using independent data documenting the fate of >20,000 duck nests within the Drift Prairie, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau physiographic regions of the United States Prairie Pothole Region during 2002–2018. Our results suggest an inconsistent relationship between perennial cover and survival of upland duck nests, which depended upon physiographic region and current and time-lagged landscape and environmental conditions. The magnitude and direction of how perennial cover correlated with daily nest survival depended on its dominance as a landcover type. A positive relationship existed when perennial cover was a minor component of landcover in all physiographic regions (<30% of a 10.4-km 2 area) and, in the Drift Prairie and Prairie Coteau, when perennial cover was the dominant landcover type (>60%). A constant or negative relationship was predicted at locations of about 30–60% perennial cover. Additionally, environmental conditions (i.e., density of wetlands and estimated gross primary productivity in the previous year) moderated or enhanced the effect of perennial cover on nest survival, depending on physiographic region. Our finding of inconsistency in the relationship between perennial cover and nest survival contradicts the conservation premise that nest survival universally increases linearly when uplands are converted to perennial cover. Promoting policies and management actions designed to increase perennial cover can be expected to be situationally but not consistently associated with higher survival of upland duck nests.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Silver Chub spawning confirmed in the Maumee River, a tributary of Lake Erie

Objective Biodiversity is declining due to invasive species and other factors that can affect individual species differently. Silver Chub Macrhybopsis storeriana are declining in their native range, and their conservation status in the Great Lakes ranges from secure to possibly extirpated. Lake Erie once supported a large Silver Chub population until it crashed in the 1950s. Additionally, the spawning behavior and reproductive guild of Silver Chub in Lake Erie is unknown. Our objective was to document Silver Chub spawning in the Maumee River, a Lake Erie tributary. Methods Invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella are known to spawn in the Maumee River during high-flow events from May to July, and the University of Toledo and U.S. Geological Survey regularly sample the lower 24 km for early life stages using paired bongo nets. Contents from paired bongo nets are returned to the laboratory for processing, and a subset of potential Grass Carp eggs are sent for genetic analysis. Result On June 8, 2022, several potential Grass Carp eggs were captured at two sites on the Maumee River during a high-flow event. Fifteen potential Grass Carp eggs were sent for genetic analysis, and DNA sequencing revealed that six of these eggs were Silver Chub. Discussion This was the first known collection of Silver Chub eggs in a Lake Erie tributary, and our findings indicate that Silver Chub likely belong to the pelagophil reproductive guild. Although Grass Carp and Silver Chub spawn under similar conditions, management actions to control Grass Carp in the Maumee River may be unlikely to affect Silver Chub due to electrofishing settings used in the capture of Grass Carp. The verification of Silver Chub spawning in a Western Erie Basin tributary provides insights into their reproductive biology that could be useful in recovery planning in Lake Erie and throughout the Great Lakes.

Ohio↗

USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

California↗

USGS2023

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities’ innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2014

Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an area or wanting to direct gas-drilling efforts away from pygmy rabbit habitat may want to consider both models in an ensemble manner, where more confidence is placed in mapped areas (i.e., pixels) for which both models agree than for areas where there is model disagreement.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Is there enough water? How bearish and bullish outlooks are linked to decision-maker perspectives on environmental flows

Policies that mandate environmental flows (e-flows) can be powerful tools for freshwater conservation, but implementation of these policies faces many hurdles. To better understand these challenges, we explored two key questions: (1) What additional data are needed to implement e-flows? and (2) What are the major socio-political barriers to implementing e-flows? We surveyed water and natural resource decision makers in the semi-arid Red River basin, Texas-Oklahoma, USA, and used social network analysis to analyze their communication patterns. Most respondents agreed that e-flows can provide important benefits and identified the same data needs. However, respondents sharply in their beliefs on other issues, and a clustering analysis revealed two distinct groups of decision makers. One cluster of decision makers tended to be bearish, or pessimistic, and believed that: current flow conditions are not adequate, there are many serious socio-political barriers to implementation, water conflicts will likely increase in the future, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these issues. The other cluster of respondents was bullish, or optimistic: they foresaw fewer future water conflicts and fewer socio-political barriers to implementation. Despite these differences, both clusters largely identified the same data needs and barriers to e-flows implementation. Our social network analysis revealed that the frequency of communication between clusters was not significantly different than the frequency of communication within clusters. Overall, our results suggest that the different perspectives of decision-makers could complicate efforts to implement e-flows and proactively plan for climate change. However, there are opportunities for collaboration on addressing common data needs and barriers to implementation. Overall, our study provides a key socio-environmental perspective on e-flows implementation from a semi-arid and socio-politically complex river basin and contextualizes the many challenges facing e-flows implementation in river basins globally.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2022

Structured decision making to rank North American Wetland Conservation Act proposals within joint venture regions

The North American Wetlands Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 4401-4412) provided funding and administration for wetland management and conservation projects. The North American Wetland Conservation Fund, enabled in 1989 with the Act, provides financial resources. Resource allocation decisions are based, in part, on regional experts, particularly migratory bird Joint Ventures (JVs) (i.e., partnerships for cooperative planning and coordinated management of the continent’s waterfowl populations and habitats). The JVs evaluate funding proposals submitted with their respective regions each year and make funding recommendations to decision makers. Proposal evaluation procedures differ among JVs, however, it could be helpful to consider a transparent, repeatable, and data-driven framework for prioritization within regions. We used structured decision making and linear additive value models for ranking proposals within JV regions. We used two JVs as case studies and constructed two different value models using JV-specific objectives and weights. The framework was developed through a collaborative process with JV staff and stakeholders. Models were written in Microsoft Excel. To test these models, we used six NAWCA proposals submitted to the Upper Mississippi / Great Lakes Joint Venture in 2016 and seven proposals submitted to the Gulf Coast Joint Venture in 2017. We compared proposal ranks assigned by the value model to ranks assigned by each JV’s management board. Ranks assigned by the value model differed from ranks assigned by the board for the Upper Mississippi / Great Lakes Joint Venture, but not for the Gulf Coast Joint Venture. However, ranks from the value model could change markedly with different objective weights and value functions. The weighted linear value model was beneficial for ranking NAWCA proposals because it allows JVs to treat the ranking as a multiple objective problem and tailor the ranking to their specific regional concerns. We believe a structured decision making approach could be adapted by JV staff to facilitate a systematic and transparent process for proposal ranking by their management boards.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

How sampling design of GPS collar deployment influences consistency of mapped migration corridors over time

Federal and state agencies within the United States have recently issued directives prioritizing the conservation of ungulate migration corridors and winter ranges. The ability to identify and delineate the spatial distribution of seasonal ranges underpins these policies. While such delineations are often derived from global positioning system (GPS) collar data collected for a few years on a focal population, they are being used in long-term conservation planning. Our objectives were to quantify consistency in migration corridors from year to year and cumulatively across multiple years and identify which aspects of the sampling design of GPS collar deployment will delineate a consistent and relatively complete migration corridor. We used data from 6 sub-herds of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), a species known to have high migratory fidelity, located in Wyoming and northern New Mexico, USA, monitored for 5–7 years (510 unique individuals). We calculated 2 types of migration corridors over time: cumulative corridors where each new year of data was added to all previous years and yearly corridors where each year was based only on data collected in that year. We then calculated the year-to-year consistency in the 2 types of migration corridors by calculating the percent overlap between corridors calculated in sequential years. We found that collaring a higher proportion of a sub-herd increased the consistency in migration corridors, whereas collaring new individuals via redeployments in a subsequent year of monitoring caused corridors to shift. To obtain a corridor with ≥90% consistency (i.e., approaching the complete area used by a population in our data), our results suggest that biologists should strive to collar ≥6% of a sub-herd for a minimum of 2 years. However, if ≥6% of a sub-herd cannot be collared, monitoring for longer (3–4 years) will provide roughly 90% consistency in a migration corridor estimate for mule deer. Furthermore, adding 16–25% new individuals each year will help capture variation among individuals while maintaining corridor consistency of ≥90%, leading to a more accurate delineation of the corridor. Our results provide managers with a logistical framework for collaring projects aimed at delineating migration corridors that are durable into the future.

Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Dispersal limitations increase vulnerability under climate change for reptiles and amphibians in the southwestern United States

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km 2 across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid-century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Ut↗

USGS2020

Simulating strategic implementation of the CRP to increase Greater prairie-chicken abundance

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has the potential to influence the distribution and abundance of grasslands in many agricultural landscapes, and thereby provide habitat for grassland-dependent wildlife. Greater prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus ) are a grassland-dependent species with large area requirements and have been used as an indicator of grassland ecosystem function; they are also a species of conservation concern across much of their range. Greater prairie-chicken populations respond to the amount and configuration of grasslands and wetlands in agriculturally dominated landscapes, which in turn can be influenced by the CRP; however, CRP enrollments and enrollment caps have declined from previous highs. Therefore, prioritizing CRP reenrollments and new enrollments to achieve the greatest benefit for grassland-dependent wildlife seems prudent. We used models relating either lek density or the number of males at leks to CRP enrollments and the resulting landscape structure to predict changes in greater prairie-chicken abundance related to changes in CRP enrollments. We simulated 3 land-cover scenarios: expiration of existing CRP enrollments, random, small-parcel (4,040 m 2 ) addition of CRP grasslands, and strategic, large-parcel (80,000 m 2 ) addition of CRP grasslands. Large-parcel additions were the average enrollment size in northwestern Minnesota, USA, within the context of a regional prairie restoration plan. In our simulations of CRP enrollment expirations, the abundance of greater prairie-chickens declined when grassland landscape contiguity declined with loss of CRP enrollments. Simulations of strategic CRP enrollment with large parcels to increase grassland contiguity more often increased greater prairie-chicken abundance than random additions of the same area in small parcels that did not increase grassland contiguity. In some cases, CRP enrollments had no or a negative predicted change in greater prairie-chicken abundance because they provided insufficient grassland contiguity on the landscape, or increased cover-type fragmentation. Predicted greater prairie-chicken abundance increased under large-parcel and small-parcel scenarios of addition of CRP grassland; the greatest increases were associated with large-parcel additions. We suggest that strategic application of the CRP to improve grassland contiguity can benefit greater prairie-chicken populations more than an opportunistic approach lacking consideration of the larger landscape context. Strategic implementation of the CRP can benefit greater prairie-chicken populations in northwestern Minnesota, and likely elsewhere in landscapes where grassland continuity may be a limiting factor.

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