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USGS2020

Expert-informed habitat suitability analysis for at-risk species assessment and conservation planning

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus , southern hognose snake Heterodon simus , Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus , gopher frog Lithobates ( Rana ) capito , and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus . To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km 2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2014

Exposure pathways and biological receptors: baseline data for the canyon uranium mine, Coconino County, Arizona

Recent restrictions on uranium mining within the Grand Canyon watershed have drawn attention to scientific data gaps in evaluating the possible effects of ore extraction to human populations as well as wildlife communities in the area. Tissue contaminant concentrations, one of the most basic data requirements to determine exposure, are not available for biota from any historical or active uranium mines in the region. The Canyon Uranium Mine is under development, providing a unique opportunity to characterize concentrations of uranium and other trace elements, as well as radiation levels in biota, found in the vicinity of the mine before ore extraction begins. Our study objectives were to identify contaminants of potential concern and critical contaminant exposure pathways for ecological receptors; conduct biological surveys to understand the local food web and refine the list of target species (ecological receptors) for contaminant analysis; and collect target species for contaminant analysis prior to the initiation of active mining. Contaminants of potential concern were identified as arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, thallium, uranium, and zinc for chemical toxicity and uranium and associated radionuclides for radiation. The conceptual exposure model identified ingestion, inhalation, absorption, and dietary transfer (bioaccumulation or bioconcentration) as critical contaminant exposure pathways. The biological survey of plants, invertebrates, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and small mammals is the first to document and provide ecological information on .200 species in and around the mine site; this study also provides critical baseline information about the local food web. Most of the species documented at the mine are common to ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa and pinyon–juniper Pinus–Juniperus spp. forests in northern Arizona and are not considered to have special conservation status by state or federal agencies; exceptions are the locally endemic Tusayan flameflower Phemeranthus validulus, the long-legged bat Myotis volans, and the Arizona bat Myotis occultus. The most common vertebrate species identified at the mine site included the Mexican spadefoot toad Spea multiplicata, plateau fence lizard Sceloporus tristichus, violetgreen swallow Tachycineta thalassina, pygmy nuthatch Sitta pygmaea, purple martin Progne subis, western bluebird Sialia mexicana, deermouse Peromyscus maniculatus, valley pocket gopher Thomomys bottae, cliff chipmunk Tamias dorsalis, black-tailed jackrabbit Lepus californicus, mule deer Odocoileus hemionus, and elk Cervus canadensis. A limited number of the most common species were collected for contaminant analysis to establish baseline contaminant and radiological concentrations prior to ore extraction. These empirical baseline data will help validate contaminant exposure pathways and potential threats from contaminant exposures to ecological receptors. Resource managers will also be able to use these data to determine the extent to which local species are exposed to chemical and radiation contamination once the mine is operational and producing ore. More broadly, these data could inform resource management decisions on mitigating chemical and radiation exposure of biota at high-grade uranium breccia pipes throughout the Grand Canyon watershed.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Abdominally implanted satellite transmitters affect reproduction and survival rather than migration of large shorebirds

Satellite telemetry has become a common technique to investigate avian life-histories, but whether such tagging will affect fitness is a critical unknown. In this study, we evaluate multi-year effects of implanted transmitters on migratory timing and reproductive performance in shorebirds. Shorebirds increasingly are recognized as good models in ecology and evolution. That many of them are of conservation concern adds to the research responsibilities. In May 2009, we captured 56 female Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa limosa during late incubation in The Netherlands. Of these, 15 birds were equipped with 26-g satellite transmitters with a percutaneous antenna (7.8 % ± 0.2 SD of body mass), surgically implanted in the coelom. We compared immediate nest survival, timing of migration, subsequent nest site fidelity and reproductive behaviour including egg laying with those of the remaining birds, a comparison group of 41 females. We found no effects on immediate nest survival. Fledging success and subsequent southward and northward migration patterns of the implanted birds conformed to the expectations, and arrival time on the breeding grounds in 2010–2012 did not differ from the comparison group. Compared with the comparison group, in the year after implantation, implanted birds were equally faithful to the nest site and showed equal territorial behaviour, but a paucity of behaviours indicating nests or clutches. In the 3 years after implantation, the yearly apparent survival of implanted birds was 16 % points lower. Despite intense searching, we found only three eggs of two implanted birds; all were deformed. A similarly deformed egg was reported in a similarly implanted Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus returning to breed in central Alaska. The presence in the body cavity of an object slightly smaller than a normal egg may thus lead to egg malformation and, likely, reduced egg viability. That the use of implanted satellite transmitters in these large shorebirds reduced nesting propensity and might also lead to fertility losses argues against the use of implanted transmitters for studies on breeding biology, and for a careful evaluation of the methodology in studies of migration.

Friesl↗
USGS2022

Explainable machine learning improves interpretability in the predictive modeling of biological stream conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Anthropogenic alterations have resulted in widespread degradation of stream conditions. To aid in stream restoration and management, baseline estimates of conditions and improved explanation of factors driving their degradation are needed. We used random forests to model biological conditions using a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity for small, non-tidal streams (upstream area ≤200 km 2 ) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) of the mid-Atlantic coast of North America. We utilized several global and local model interpretation tools to improve average and site-specific model inferences, respectively. The model was used to predict condition for 95,867 individual catchments for eight periods (2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019). Predicted conditions were classified as Poor, FairGood, or Uncertain to align with management needs and individual reach lengths and catchment areas were summed by condition class for the CBW for each period. Global permutation and local Shapley importance values indicated percent of forest, development, and agriculture in upstream catchments had strong impacts on predictions. Development and agriculture negatively influenced stream condition for model average (partial dependence [PD] and accumulated local effect [ALE] plots) and local (individual condition expectation and Shapley value plots) levels. Friedman's H-statistic indicated large overall interactions for these three land covers, and bivariate global plots (PD and ALE) supported interactions among agriculture and development. Total stream length and catchment area predicted in FairGood conditions decreased then increased over the 19-years (length/area: 66.6/65.4% in 2001, 66.3/65.2% in 2011, and 66.6/65.4% in 2019). Examination of individual catchment predictions between 2001 and 2019 showed those predicted to have the largest decreases in condition had large increases in development; whereas catchments predicted to exhibit the largest increases in condition showed moderate increases in forest cover. Use of global and local interpretative methods together with watershed-wide and individual catchment predictions support conservation practitioners that need to identify widespread and localized patterns, especially acknowledging that management actions typically take place at individual-reach scales.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗
USGS2011

Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

1. Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat‐occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium‐state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. 2. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three‐state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis ), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second‐order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). 3. In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. 4. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second‐order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system‐specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska

The Aleutian tern ( Onychoprion aleuticus ) is a species of high conservation concern in Alaska, USA, owing to large declines at known breeding locations since the 1960s. The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential drivers of this decline. Significant unknowns include the factors, and their relative importance, influencing nest survival. To investigate these questions, we estimated daily nest survival (DNS) for 148 nests from 5 breeding colonies during 2017 to 2020 in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska with 105 monitored using remote cameras. We used the nest survival model in program MARK to estimate DNS rates as a function of colony location, year, within-season time trends, vegetation cover and height, and 6 daily weather covariates. Our top model suggested that DNS rates increased with vegetation height, decreased as the season progressed, and included a significant interaction between year and colony. Average nest success (i.e., percent chance that a nest survived to hatch) over the 22-day incubation period varied by colony but was generally very low, averaging 1.2% (95% CI = 0–11%) in 2017–2018 to 14% (95% CI = 0.1–38%) in 2019–2020 across all colonies. The importance of year in the model suggests that a large-scale annual driver, like food availability, may have played an important role in this species' breeding success. A severe marine heatwave was present in the Gulf of Alaska during 2014–2016 and our results suggest that some effects of this anomalous event, such as reduced prey availability, lingered even after temperatures returned to normal. Additionally, the variation in DNS across colony locations indicated that local factors, such as predation pressure, may also drive significant variation in Aleutian tern productivity. These findings suggest that a combination of local factors and climate change may be important drivers of the >90% decline in Alaska's breeding population of Aleutian terns.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Phenotypic homogenization and potential fitness constraints following non-native introgression in an endemic sportfish

Introgressive hybridization may lead to contrasting evolutionary outcomes that are difficult to predict since they depend on the fitness effects of endogenous genomic interactions and environmental factors. Conservation of endemic biodiversity may be more effective with require direct measurement of introgressed ancestry and fitness in wild populations, especially for keystone taxa at risk of hybridization following species introductions. We assessed the relationship of non-native ancestry with growth and body condition in the basin-restricted Neosho Bass ( Micropterus velox ; NB), focussing on two streams in the NB native range that are admixed extensively with non-native Smallmouth Bass ( M. dolomieu ; SMB). We quantified the genetic composition of 116 fish from Big Sugar Creek ( N = 46) and Elk River ( N = 70) at 14 microsatellite loci. Using back-calculated total length-at-age estimated from sagittal otoliths, we assessed whether genetic ancestry explained variation in von Bertalanffy growth model parameters, accounting for sex and stream effects. We then assessed the relationship between ancestry and body condition. We found no differences in growth parameters by sex, stream, or ancestry, suggesting phenotypic homogenization which could be mediated by selection on body size. We found a negative correlation between SMB ancestry and condition, including lower condition in Big Sugar Creek, possibly reflecting a trade-off between maximum length and condition with respect to overall fitness. We show that ongoing non-native introgression, which may be augmented by anthropogenic SMB introductions, may attenuate evolutionary differentiation between species and directly influence fitness, possibly having critical implications for long-term persistence and management of adaptive potential in a popular and ecologically important endemic sportfish.

Journal of Evolutionary Biology↗
USGS2016

Habitat use and growth of the western painted crayfish Orconectes palmeri longimanus

Identifying ontogenetic shifts in habitat use by aquatic organisms is necessary for improving conservation strategies; however, our ability to designate life stages based on surrogate metrics (i.e., length) is questionable without validation. This study identified growth patterns of age-0 western painted crayfish Orconectes palmeri longimanus (Faxon, 1898) reared in the laboratory, provided support for field-based designations of age-0 lengths, and identified microhabitat factors important to adult and juvenile presence from field collections. Two growth periods of a laboratory crayfish population were described using a broken line model: a rapid, early-growth period (weeks 2-20, slope = 0.81 ± 0.03SE), and a slower, late-growth period (weeks 22-50, slope = 0.13 ± 0.03SE). A smoothed curve was generated to represent the size distribution of juveniles from our laboratory population to determine the probability that an age-0 crayfish from our laboratory population had a carapace length (CL) similar to that found in previous field studies using onset of maturity (22.4 mm CL). We determined that the probability of the age-0 crayfish in our summer laboratory population exceeding 22.4 mm CL was 0.06. The threshold between the lower 0.95 and upper 0.05 probabilities was 22.9 mm CL, confirming previous field observations of onset at maturity. We used this threshold to identify juveniles and adults from our field collections, and found that both life stages were positively associated with coarse substrate and negatively associated with water depth. Adults, however, were negatively related to gravel, whereas juveniles showed a positive relationship. This result is reflective of the relationship between crayfish body size and refuge use within the interstitial spaces of substrates, whereby adult crayfish are unable to seek refuge in the small interstitial spaces of gravel.

Journal of Crustacean Biology↗
USGS2002

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and Akaike’s information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic – Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens . Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May–August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October–March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0·51 ± 0·03) and recapture probabilities (0·93 ± 0·03) than did females (survival: 0·40 ± 0·04; recapture: 0·87 ± 0·06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0·43 ± 0·03) and recapture (0·95 ± 0·04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May–August) and winter (October–March) stationary periods were high: 1·0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0·99 ± 0·01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during migration ranged from 0·77 to 0·81 ± 0·02. Thus, apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during migration compared to that in the stationary periods, and more than 85% of apparent annual mortality of D. caerulescens occurred during migration. 6. Additional data from multiple species, especially measures of habitat-specific demography and dispersal, will improve our understanding of the relative impacts of the breeding, migratory, and winter periods on population dynamics of migratory birds and thus enhance future conservation efforts.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2022

Hidden in plain sight: Migration routes of the elusive Anadyr bar-tailed godwit revealed by satellite tracking

Satellite and GPS tracking technology continues to reveal new migration patterns of birds which enables comparative studies of migration strategies and distributional information useful in conservation. Bar-tailed godwits in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway Limosa lapponica baueri and L. l. menzbieri are known for their long non-stop flights, however these populations are in steep decline. A third subspecies in this flyway, L. l. anadyrensis , breeds in the Anadyr River basin, Chukotka, Russia, and is morphologically distinct from menzbieri and baueri based on comparison of museum specimens collected from breeding areas. However, the non-breeding distribution, migration route and population size of anadyrensis are entirely unknown. Among 24 female bar-tailed godwits tracked in 2015–2018 from northwest Australia, the main non-breeding area for menzbieri , two birds migrated further east than the rest to breed in the Anadyr River basin, i.e. they belonged to the anadyrensis subspecies. During pre-breeding migration, all birds staged in the Yellow Sea and then flew to the breeding grounds in the eastern Russian Arctic. After breeding, these two birds migrated southwestward to stage in Russia on the Kamchatka Peninsula and on Sakhalin Island en route to the Yellow Sea. This contrasts with the other 22 tracked godwits that followed the previously described route of menzbieri , i.e. they all migrated northwards to stage in the New Siberian Islands before turning south towards the Yellow Sea, and onwards to northwest Australia. Since the Kamchatka Peninsula was not used by any of the tracked menzbieri birds, the 4500 godwits counted in the Khairusova–Belogolovaya estuary in western Kamchatka may well be anadyrensis . Comparing migration patterns across the three bar-tailed godwits subspecies, the migration strategy of anadyrensis lies between that of menzbieri and baueri . Future investigations combining migration tracks with genomic data could reveal how differences in migration routines are evolved and maintained.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2017

Developing an effective Agassiz's Desert Tortoise monitoring program: Final report to the Coachella Valley Conservation Commission

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a conservation-reliant species with populations north and west of the Colorado River protected as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Averill-Murray et al. 2012). Since it was listed under this category in 1990, a great deal has been learned about the natural history of the species, and it is now one of the best-studied turtles in the United States (Lovich and Ennen 2013). However, the accumulated body of scientific data available for the species has not yet been translated into recovery or delisting of the species. Successful conservation of any species requires knowledge of their natural history and how vital rates affect their ability to maintain stable populations in the face of natural and anthropogenic stresses. Agassiz’s desert tortoises occur from southwestern Utah to near the Mexican border in California – a distance of over 450 km – but population densities vary greatly across this immense landscape (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015). Tortoises occur in the Sonoran Desert of California, including the eastern and western ends of the Coachella Valley, where it is one of 27 species covered under the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP). The southern portion of Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) lies within this 1.1 million acre planning area, and was predicted to be an area of low-density tortoise populations using habitat suitability modeling (Barrows 2011). JTNP is near the southern distributional limit of G. agassizii, yet very little has been published regarding the ecology of tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of California. Reproductive output is an important gross measure of the ability of a population to persist. When integrated with data on fertility and survivorship, this information forms a foundation for assessing population status and formulating effective management strategies (e.g., Congdon et al. 1993, 1994), especially for imperiled species. One aspect of the biology of G. agassizii that has been particularly well-studied is reproductive output. However, most of what we know about this topic comes from research in the Mojave Desert portion of the species’ range (Ernst and Lovich 2009). Comparatively little has been published on the reproductive ecology of populations living in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of California. Publications by Lovich et al. (1999, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) constitute the main body of literature on desert tortoise reproductive ecology in the Sonoran Desert of California, with one study population located at the western end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Collecting data on Agassiz’s desert tortoise ecology in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem is important due to significant differences between the two adjacent desert ecosystems, especially the timing and amounts of annual precipitation, and their potential effects on reproductive output (e.g., Lovich et al. 5 2015). There are also differences in the vulnerability of tortoises to the effects of a warming, drying climate between the two deserts (Barrows 2011; Zylstra et al. 2012). The overall goal of this study was to collect data on demography, reproductive output, and genetic affinities at a study site in the Sonoran Desert portion of JTNP in the eastern end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Specific objectives included: 1) Collect data to establish baselines on tortoise populations and/or their habitat suitability in core habitat within the CVNCCP area, including biotic and abiotic variables affecting persistence of tortoise populations; 2) Compare and contrast with data collected on desert tortoises at USGS/BLM study site near Palm Springs over 16 years; 3) Support long-term modeling efforts needed to determine tortoise population viability; 4) Refine modeled relationships with identified threats such as fire, invasive species and climate change; and 5) Prioritize adaptive management needs for the desert tortoise in and beyond the CVNCCP area. The data from this study will aid in determining baseline estimates of the desert tortoise population size within the planning area as well as establish a marked population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises for future monitoring. Data will be integrated with habitat modeling in order to refine model output. Genetic data will be collected on both the north and south sides of Interstate 10 to determine the potential effects of habitat fragmentation and genetic mixing. Analyses are ongoing and results beyond those presented in this report will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals following inclusion of additional data collected on the south side of Shavers Valley in 2017-2018.

Report↗
USGS2020

High site fidelity does not equate to population genetic structure for common goldeneye and Barrow's goldeneye in North America

Delineation of population structure provides valuable information for conservation and management of species, as levels of demographic and genetic connectivity not only affect population dynamics but also have important implications for adaptability and resiliency of populations and species. Here, we measure population genetic structure and connectivity across the ranges of two sister species of sea ducks: Barrow's goldeneye Bucephala islandica and common goldeneye B. clangula . We use two different marker types: 7–8 nuclear microsatellite loci assayed across 229 samples and 3678 double digest restriction‐site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD‐seq) loci assayed across 61 samples. First, both datasets found no evidence of genetic structure within common or Barrow's goldeneye, including between North American and European samples of common goldeneye. These results are in contrast with previous mitochondrial DNA, band recovery and telemetry data which suggest that goldeneyes are structured across their range. We posit that the discordance between autosomal genetic markers and other data types suggests that males, possibly subadult males, may be maintaining genetic connectivity across each species' respective ranges. Next, although mate choice consequences resulting from inter‐specific brood parasitism was hypothesized to cause some level of gene flow between goldeneye species, we only identified a single F1 hybrid with no further evidence of contemporary or historical gene flow. Despite ddRAD‐seq demographic analyses which recovered an optimum evolutionary model of split‐with‐migration (i.e. secondary contact), estimates of gene flow were <<1 migrant per generation in both directions. Together, we conclude that either strong ecological barriers or assortative mating are likely playing a role in preventing further backcrossing. Finally, demographic analyses estimated a relatively deep divergence time between Barrow's goldeneye and common goldeneye of ~1.6 million years before present and suggests that the genomes of both species have been under similar evolutionary constraints.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2026

Patterns of recent brook trout invasion in bull trout streams in relation to habitat, source connectivity, biotic resistance, and disturbance

Knowledge of which habitats are at risk of invasion by nonnative species is essential to conservation, but a changing climate often complicates assessments of where future invasions may occur. Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis threaten cold-adapted native salmonids throughout western North America, and the extent of future invasions in coldwater streams is recognized as an area of uncertainty with important consequences. We addressed this uncertainty using spatial-stream-network (SSN) modeling to develop a species distribution model (SDM) for brook trout in Idaho, creating high-resolution prediction maps of suitable (i.e., invadable) habitat under baseline (1990–2015) and future (2080s) climate scenarios, and querying predictions within natal bull trout S. confluentus habitat patches (stream–subwatershed scale) for each scenario. Results indicated that brook trout will experience a net loss of suitable habitat in Idaho, but a large increase of suitable habitat in cold streams. The total proportion of bull trout habitat invadable by brook trout increased from 0.33 during the baseline scenario to 0.44 during the future scenario—a result of upstream expansions of brook trout habitat that were partially offset by contractions in bull trout habitat. Changes in the proportion of invadable habitat varied widely among bull trout patches. Between scenarios, the largest increases in suitable habitat occurred in small, low-gradient, unconfined streams with mean August water temperatures of 7–9 °C during the baseline period. A relatively small proportion of patches contained the majority of invadable habitat in both scenarios, particularly patches in “U-shaped” glacial valleys. A changing climate will broadly increase the threat that brook trout pose to bull trout, but the degree of change experienced by individual populations will vary with local context. The high-resolution prediction maps created by our SSN model will help conservation planners identify and prioritize control efforts on the small proportion of brook trout populations that most threaten bull trout.

Idaho↗
USGS2006

Fish-assemblage variation between geologically defined regions and across a longitudinal gradient in the Monkey River Basin, Belize

Linkages between geology and fish assemblages have been inferred in many regions throughout the world, but no studies have yet investigated whether fish assemblages differ across geologies in Mesoamerica. The goals of our study were to: 1) compare physicochemical conditions and fish-assemblage structure across 2 geologic types in headwaters of the Monkey River Basin, Belize, and 2) describe basin-scale patterns in fish community composition and structure for the benefit of conservation efforts. We censused headwater-pool fishes by direct observation, and assessed habitat size, structure, and water chemistry to compare habitat and fish richness, diversity, evenness, and density between streams in the variably metamorphosed sedimentary geologic type typical of 80% of Belize’s Maya Mountains (the Santa Rosa Group), and an anomalous extrusive geologic formation in the same area (the Bladen Volcanic Member). We also collected species-presence data from 20 sites throughout the basin for analyses of compositional patterns from the headwaters to the top of the estuary. Thirty-nine fish species in 21 families were observed. Poeciliids were numerically dominant, making up 39% of individuals captured, followed by characins (25%), and cichlids (20%). Cichlidae was the most species-rich family (7 spp.), followed by Poeciliidae (6 spp.). Habitat size and water chemistry differed strongly between geologic types, but habitat diversity did not. Major fish-assemblage differences also were not obvious between geologies, despite a marked difference in the presence of the aquatic macrophyte, Marathrum oxycarpum (Podostemaceae), which covered 37% of the stream bottom in high-nutrient streams draining the Santa Rosa Group, and did not occur in the low-P streams draining the Bladen Volcanic Member. Correlation analyses suggested that distance from the sea and amount of cover within pools are important to fish-assemblage structure, but that differing abiotic factors may influence assemblage structure within each geologic type. The fauna showed weak compositional zonation into 3 groups (headwaters, coastal plain, and nearshore). Nearly 20% of the fish species collected have migratory life cycles (including Joturus pichardi , Agonostomus monticola , and Gobiomorus dormitor ) that use freshwater and marine habitats. Some of these species probably rely on a natural flow regime and longitudinal connectivity for reproduction and dispersal of young, and natural flow regime and longitudinal connectivity are important factors for maintenance of functional linkages between the uplands and the coast in the ridge-to-reef corridor where the Monkey River is located. Therefore, we suggest that the viability of migratory fish populations may be a good biological indicator of upland-to-estuary connectivity important both to fishes and coastal ecosystem function. We recommend follow-up studies to substantiate the relative strengths of relationships between community structure and abiotic factors in contrasting geologies and to examine potential bottom−up responses of stream biota to the higher nutrient levels that were observed in stream waters draining the Santa Rosa Group geologic type.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2022

Seasonal resource selection and movement ecology of free-ranging horses in the western United States

Understanding factors driving resource selection and habitat use of different species is an important component of management and conservation. Feral horses ( Equus caballus ) are free ranging across various vegetation types in the western United States, yet few studies have quantified their resource selection and seasonal use. We conducted a study to determine effects of vegetation community, distance to water, and topographic variables on seasonal resource selection in 2 feral horse populations in Great Basin sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of west-central Utah, USA: Conger Herd Management Area (HMA) and Frisco HMA. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collars on 38 female horses and GPS-transmitters braided and glued into the tail hair of 14 males, collecting locations every 2 hours for 1–4 years between 2016 and 2020. We calculated home range size and core use area of social groups (harems) and bachelor males using auto-correlated kernel density estimators for each biologically defined season (breeding, fall, and winter) per study year. We examined seasonal home range size and overlap of harem groups and bachelor males and compared movement speed of bachelors and harems among seasons. We determined seasonal resource selection in a use-availability framework using resource selection functions. We hypothesized that horses would select for areas of high herbaceous vegetation, that water would be a key variable in resource selection models like other equids, and home range size in winter would be largest because horses can eat snow for hydration and could therefore roam farther from surface water. Mean annual home range size was 103.12 ± 37.38 km 2 (SD) for Conger harems and 117.47 ± 32.75 km 2 for Frisco harems. At Conger there was no difference in home range size between harem groups and bachelor males, but home range size was smaller in winter than other seasons, whereas winter home range size at Frisco was larger than other seasons. Bachelor males moved at higher speeds than harems during all seasons, and harem groups from both populations had lower movement speeds in winter. Harem groups had distinct winter ranges with little overlap on breeding season ranges. In both populations, all horses selected for herbaceous vegetation types and avoided forest relative to shrubland throughout the year. Harems at Frisco were consistently located closer to water sources, whereas selection for water sources by Conger harems varied seasonally, with winter having the lowest selection. Harem groups at Conger had an average of 10.6% of their home ranges outside the HMA boundary and Frisco harems had up to 66.8% outside, likely because of the horseshoe shape of Frisco HMA in which shrub meadows (foraging areas) comprise the horseshoe center, which is outside the HMA. Our results highlight the importance of water sources, which were a key predictor of horse movement patterns in our study. We emphasize the utility of telemetry devices to understand resource selection of feral horses at a fine scale, enabling management to be more targeted and facilitate planning.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Network connectivity contributes to native small-bodied fish assemblages in the upper Mississippi River system

Effective management and conservation of fishes requires understanding habitat use across multiple life stages while ensuring necessary habitats are both available and accessible. Tributary habitats may play an important role in recruitment and dispersal of fishes in anthropogenically modified rivers such as the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers of the Midwest U.S.A. Identifying source locations that contribute to recruitment of fish populations can determine the importance of connectivity within river networks and pinpoint critical habitats that sustain fish populations. In the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), the environments that fish use in early life stages (i.e., natal origin) can be identified using otolith trace element analysis due to stability and distinctness in water chemistry (strontium: calcium [Sr:Ca]) among water bodies that is reflected in otoliths. Here, we used trace element analysis to determine natal origin of six small-bodied fishes including bullhead minnow ( Pimephales vigilax ), emerald shiner ( Notropis atherinoides ), gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), orangespotted sunfish ( Lepomis humilis ), and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) across six reaches of the UMRS (Pools 4, 8, 13, 26, the Open River of the Middle Mississippi River, and the La Grange Pool of the Illinois River). Otolith core Sr:Ca for fishes was quantified using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Using the resulting Sr:Ca chemical signatures of otolith cores, natal origin (tributary, immigrant, or potential resident) was determined for individual fish based on family-specific relationships between otolith and water chemistries. We found that all species originated from tributaries and other reaches (i.e., were immigrants) to varying extents, which acted as evidence for network connectivity. Specifically, tributaries contributed up to 48% of individuals at a given reach. In certain reaches, Pool 26 and the Open River reach, up to 80% of individuals in a species immigrated from another mainstem river reach. Network connectivity was also important in both upstream and downstream directions. Contributions from network connectivity varied among species: bullhead minnow used less whereas orangespotted sunfish used more network connectivity than when all species were combined. Further, the use of network connectivity varied spatially where individuals captured in Pool 8 and the La Grange Pool less often and those from Pool 26 and the Open River more often originated from network connectivity compared to the whole assemblage across reaches. These results indicate that species' life history traits probably interacted with the physical environment, which differs spatially, to yield observed recruitment source patterns. Our results show that network connectivity contributes to established assemblages of native small-bodied fishes throughout the UMRS and underscore the role of interjurisdictional management in maintaining network connectivity to sustain fish populations.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗