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USGS2017

Songbirds are resilient to hurricane disturbed habitats during spring migration

The Gulf of Mexico is a conspicuous feature of the Neotropical–Nearctic bird migration system. Traveling long distances across ecological barriers comes with considerable risks, and mortality associated with intercontinental migration may be substantial, including that caused by storms or other adverse weather events. However, little, if anything, is known about how migratory birds respond to disturbance-induced changes in stopover habitat. Isolated, forested cheniere habitat along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico often concentrate migrants, during weather conditions unfavorable for northward movement or when birds are energetically stressed. We expected hurricane induced degradation of this habitat to negatively affect the abundance, propensity to stopover, and fueling trends of songbirds that stopover in coastal habitat. We used spring banding data collected in coastal Louisiana to compare migrant abundance and fueling trends before (1993–1996 and 1998–2005) and after hurricanes Rita (2006) and Ike (2009). We also characterized changes in vegetative structure before (1995) and after (2010) the hurricanes. The hurricanes caused dramatic changes to the vegetative structure, which likely decreased resources. Surprisingly, abundance, propensity to stopover, and fueling trends of most migrant species were not influenced by hurricane disturbance. Our results suggest that: 1) the function of chenieres as a refuge for migrants after completing a trans-Gulf flight may not have changed despite significant changes to habitat and decreases in resource availability, and 2) that most migrants may be able to cope with habitat disturbance during stopover. The fact that migrants use disturbed habitat points to their conservation value along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Louisiana↗

USGS2011

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2019

Demographic and genetic description of Greenland’s only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population

A survey of the Kapisillit River system was conducted in 2005 and 2012 to study the only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population in Greenland. Little is known about its characteristics or its relationship with other S. salar populations across the species range. Juvenile S. salar were captured in all stations surveyed within the lower river with the highest densities lower in the river and decreasing densities with increasing distance from the river mouth. Captured juveniles ranged from 0+ to 7+ years old and the predominant smolt age was between 4 and 6 years. Median length of 0+ and 1+ juveniles in August–September was 38.8 and 70.4 mm, respectively. The proportion of mature male parr increased from 4% for 1+ year old fish to 95% for fish greater than 2 years old. Genetic analysis using 96 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) revealed a high degree of genetic similarity between collections, extremely low genetic diversity and low estimates of effective population size (Ne = 28.7; 95% CI = 19.7–42.4). Genetic comparison to range-wide S. salar populations demonstrated that the Kapisillit River S. salar is an outgroup of the eastern Atlantic stock complex, which is consistent with the hypothesised colonisation from the east. River morphology and the absence of glacier runoff are hypothesised to be the main reasons for the relatively high river temperatures supporting this self-sustaining population of S. salar. Given its uniqueness and persistence, this population represents an important part of range-wide biodiversity of S. salar.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2020

Expert-informed habitat suitability analysis for at-risk species assessment and conservation planning

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus , southern hognose snake Heterodon simus , Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus , gopher frog Lithobates ( Rana ) capito , and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus . To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km 2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS1998

Does the Sverdrup critical depth model explain bloom dynamics in estuaries?

In this paper we use numerical models of coupled biological-hydrodynamic processes to search for general principles of bloom regulation in estuarine waters. We address three questions: what are the dynamics of stratification in coastal systems as influenced by variable freshwater input and tidal stirring? How does phytoplankton growth respond to these dynamics? Can the classical Sverdrup Critical Depth Model (SCDM) be used to predict the timing of bloom events in shallow coastal domains such as estuaries? We present results of simulation experiments which assume that vertical transport and net phytoplankton growth rates are horizontally homogeneous. In the present approach the temporally and spatially varying turbulent diffusivities for various stratification scenarios are calculated using a hydrodynamic code that includes the Mellor-Yamada 2.5 turbulence closure model. These diffusivities are then used in a time- and depth-dependent advection-diffusion equation, incorporating sources and sinks, for the phytoplankton biomass. Our modeling results show that, whereas persistent stratification greatly increases the probability of a bloom, semidiurnal periodic stratification does not increase the likelihood of a phytoplankton bloom over that of a constantly unstratified water column. Thus, for phytoplankton blooms, the physical regime of periodic stratification is closer to complete mixing than to persistent stratification. Furthermore, the details of persistent stratification are important: surface layer depth, thickness of the pycnocline, vertical density difference, and tidal current speed all weigh heavily in producing conditions which promote the onset of phytoplankton blooms. Our model results for shallow tidal systems do not conform to the classical concepts of stratification and blooms in deep pelagic systems. First, earlier studies (Riley, 1942, for example) suggest a monotonic increase in surface layer production as the surface layer shallows. Our model results suggest, however, a nonmonotonic relationship between phytoplankton population growth and surface layer depth, which results from a balance between several 'competing' processes, including the interaction of sinking with turbulent mixing and average net growth occurring within the surface layer. Second, we show that the traditional SCDM must be refined for application to energetic shallow systems or for systems in which surface layer mixing is not strong enough to counteract the sinking loss of phytoplankton. This need for refinement arises because of the leakage of phytoplankton from the surface layer by turbulent diffusion and sinking, processes not considered in the classical SCDM. Our model shows that, even for low sinking rates and small turbulent diffusivities, a significant % of the phytoplankton biomass produced in the surface layer can be lost by these processes.

Journal of Marine Research↗

USGS1998

The North American Bird Banding Program: Into the 21st century

The authors examined the legal, scientific, and philosophical underpinnings of the North American Bird Banding Program [BBP], with emphasis on the U.S. Bird Banding Laboratory [BBL], but also considering the Canadian Bird Banding Office [BBO]. In this report, we review the value of banding data, enumerate and expand on tile principles under which any modern BBP should operate, and from them derive our recommendations. These are cast into a Mission Statement, a Role and Function Statement, and a series of specific recommendations addressing five areas: (1) permitting procedures and practices; (2) operational issues; (3) data management; (4) BBL organization and staffing; and (5) implementation. Our major tenets and recommendations are as follows: banding provides valuable data for numerous scientific, management, and educational purposes, and its benefits far outweigh necessary biological and fiscal costs, especially those incurred by the BBL and BBO; because of the value of banding data for management of avian resources, including both game and nongame birds, government support of the program is fully justified and appropriate; all banding data, if collected to appropriate standards, are potentially valuable; there are many ways to increase the value of banding data such as by endorsing, promoting, and applying competence and/or training standards for permit issuance; promoting bander participation in well-designed projects; and by encouraging the use of banding data for meta-analytical approaches; the BBL should apply, promote, and encourage such standards, participation, and approaches; the BBP should be driven by the needs of users, including scientists and managers; all exchange of data and most communication between banders and the BBL should become electronic in the near future; the computer system at the BBL should be modernized to one designed for a true client-server relationship and storage of data in on-line relational databases; the BBL should continue to maintain high quality control and editing standards and should strive to bring all data in the database up to current standards; however, the BBL should transfer a major portion of the responsibility for editing banding data to the bander by providing software that will permit the bander to edit his/her own data electronically before submission to the BBL; the BBL should build the capacity to store additional data tied to original band records able to be pre-edited and submitted electronically, such as recapture data, appropriate data from auxiliary marking (e.g. resightings of color-marked birds), and other data that gain value when pooled from many banders (e.g., measurements); however, the BBL should only accept such data if they are collected using standardized methods and as part of an established program designed to utilize such data; now is the time to consider options for implementing a Western Hemisphere banding program, with leadership from the BBL; the Patuxent Electronic Data Processing Section should become part of the BBL; additional scientific and technical staff must be added to the BBL; an Implementation Team should be formed to expedite our recommendations, following timetables outlined in this document.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2020

Spatial and temporal diving behavior of non-breeding common murres during two summers of contrasting ocean conditions

Successful foraging of marine predators depends on environmental conditions, which also influence prey availability. Neutral or negative El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation ocean conditions during the summer of 2013 and strongly positive conditions during the summer of 2015 in the northern California Current System provided a case study to evaluate a marine predator's response to anomalously warm conditions. We used satellite transmitters with saltwater switches to track movements and estimate dive behavior among non-breeding common murres (Uria aalge) off Oregon prior to and during a marine heatwave. We quantified differences in space-use between years, applied linear mixed models to determine environmental influences (e.g. sea surface temperature, surface salinity, chlorophyll a, ocean depth, and calendar date) on dive frequency and dive duration, and contrasted dive activity between time of day, year, and sexes. The majority of birds dispersed away from capture locations, which were situated near the southern range limit of their population. In both years, murres used the Salish Sea and the Columbia River plume; however, murres spent more time foraging in the Columbia River plume and in continental slope habitat during the marine heatwave of 2015. During 2015, dive frequency was reduced, and dive durations were almost twice as long during daytime indicating deeper or more dispersed prey. Increased dive frequency was positively associated with temperature, chlorophyll a, and crepuscular periods. Cluster analysis of dive activity and the top-ranked predictive dive duration model revealed associations between longer-duration dives and decreased dive frequency, marine slope habitat, and cooler ocean temperatures. Murres were relatively inactive throughout the night and we found no sex differences in dive activity. Changes in common murre foraging tactics were associated with ocean warming and revealed selectivity in spatial and temporal use of foraging habitats. Productive marine features including the Columbia River plume provided refuge for murres during apparently poor ocean conditions associated with the marine heatwave. Identifying refuge areas used by highly mobile species experiencing varying ocean conditions is critical for adaptive marine spatial planning that can accommodate a changing ocean climate.

California↗

USGS2022

Seasonal resource selection and movement ecology of free-ranging horses in the western United States

Understanding factors driving resource selection and habitat use of different species is an important component of management and conservation. Feral horses ( Equus caballus ) are free ranging across various vegetation types in the western United States, yet few studies have quantified their resource selection and seasonal use. We conducted a study to determine effects of vegetation community, distance to water, and topographic variables on seasonal resource selection in 2 feral horse populations in Great Basin sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of west-central Utah, USA: Conger Herd Management Area (HMA) and Frisco HMA. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collars on 38 female horses and GPS-transmitters braided and glued into the tail hair of 14 males, collecting locations every 2 hours for 1–4 years between 2016 and 2020. We calculated home range size and core use area of social groups (harems) and bachelor males using auto-correlated kernel density estimators for each biologically defined season (breeding, fall, and winter) per study year. We examined seasonal home range size and overlap of harem groups and bachelor males and compared movement speed of bachelors and harems among seasons. We determined seasonal resource selection in a use-availability framework using resource selection functions. We hypothesized that horses would select for areas of high herbaceous vegetation, that water would be a key variable in resource selection models like other equids, and home range size in winter would be largest because horses can eat snow for hydration and could therefore roam farther from surface water. Mean annual home range size was 103.12 ± 37.38 km 2 (SD) for Conger harems and 117.47 ± 32.75 km 2 for Frisco harems. At Conger there was no difference in home range size between harem groups and bachelor males, but home range size was smaller in winter than other seasons, whereas winter home range size at Frisco was larger than other seasons. Bachelor males moved at higher speeds than harems during all seasons, and harem groups from both populations had lower movement speeds in winter. Harem groups had distinct winter ranges with little overlap on breeding season ranges. In both populations, all horses selected for herbaceous vegetation types and avoided forest relative to shrubland throughout the year. Harems at Frisco were consistently located closer to water sources, whereas selection for water sources by Conger harems varied seasonally, with winter having the lowest selection. Harem groups at Conger had an average of 10.6% of their home ranges outside the HMA boundary and Frisco harems had up to 66.8% outside, likely because of the horseshoe shape of Frisco HMA in which shrub meadows (foraging areas) comprise the horseshoe center, which is outside the HMA. Our results highlight the importance of water sources, which were a key predictor of horse movement patterns in our study. We emphasize the utility of telemetry devices to understand resource selection of feral horses at a fine scale, enabling management to be more targeted and facilitate planning.

Utah↗

USGS2024

Network connectivity contributes to native small-bodied fish assemblages in the upper Mississippi River system

Effective management and conservation of fishes requires understanding habitat use across multiple life stages while ensuring necessary habitats are both available and accessible. Tributary habitats may play an important role in recruitment and dispersal of fishes in anthropogenically modified rivers such as the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers of the Midwest U.S.A. Identifying source locations that contribute to recruitment of fish populations can determine the importance of connectivity within river networks and pinpoint critical habitats that sustain fish populations. In the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), the environments that fish use in early life stages (i.e., natal origin) can be identified using otolith trace element analysis due to stability and distinctness in water chemistry (strontium: calcium [Sr:Ca]) among water bodies that is reflected in otoliths. Here, we used trace element analysis to determine natal origin of six small-bodied fishes including bullhead minnow ( Pimephales vigilax ), emerald shiner ( Notropis atherinoides ), gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), orangespotted sunfish ( Lepomis humilis ), and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) across six reaches of the UMRS (Pools 4, 8, 13, 26, the Open River of the Middle Mississippi River, and the La Grange Pool of the Illinois River). Otolith core Sr:Ca for fishes was quantified using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Using the resulting Sr:Ca chemical signatures of otolith cores, natal origin (tributary, immigrant, or potential resident) was determined for individual fish based on family-specific relationships between otolith and water chemistries. We found that all species originated from tributaries and other reaches (i.e., were immigrants) to varying extents, which acted as evidence for network connectivity. Specifically, tributaries contributed up to 48% of individuals at a given reach. In certain reaches, Pool 26 and the Open River reach, up to 80% of individuals in a species immigrated from another mainstem river reach. Network connectivity was also important in both upstream and downstream directions. Contributions from network connectivity varied among species: bullhead minnow used less whereas orangespotted sunfish used more network connectivity than when all species were combined. Further, the use of network connectivity varied spatially where individuals captured in Pool 8 and the La Grange Pool less often and those from Pool 26 and the Open River more often originated from network connectivity compared to the whole assemblage across reaches. These results indicate that species' life history traits probably interacted with the physical environment, which differs spatially, to yield observed recruitment source patterns. Our results show that network connectivity contributes to established assemblages of native small-bodied fishes throughout the UMRS and underscore the role of interjurisdictional management in maintaining network connectivity to sustain fish populations.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Trends in marine debris in the U.S. Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, 1996-2003

Marine debris is a widespread and globally recognized problem. Sound information is necessary to understand the extent of the problem and to inform resource managers and policy makers about potential mitigation strategies. Although there are many short-term studies on marine debris, a longer-term perspective and the ability to compare among regions has heretofore been missing in the U.S. Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. We used data from a national beach monitoring program to evaluate and compare amounts, composition, and trends of indicator marine debris in the U.S. Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Gulf of Mexico from 1996 to 2003. Indicator items provided a standardized set that all surveys collected; each was assigned a probable source: ocean-based, land-based, or general-source. Probable ocean-based debris was related to activities such as recreational boating/fishing, commercial fishing and activities on oil/gas platforms. Probable land-based debris was related to land-based recreation and sewer systems. General-source debris represented plastic items that can come from either ocean- or land-based sources; these items were plastic bags, strapping bands, and plastic bottles (excluding motor oil containers). Debris loads were similar between the U.S. Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico; however, debris composition on U.S. Caribbean beaches was dominated by land-based indicators while the western Gulf of Mexico was dominated by ocean-based indicators. Beaches along the eastern Gulf of Mexico had the lowest counts of debris; composition was dominated by land-based indicators, similar to that found for the U.S. Caribbean. Debris loads on beaches in the Gulf of Mexico are likely affected by Gulf circulation patterns, reducing loads in the eastern Gulf and increasing loads in the western Gulf. Over the seven years of monitoring, we found a large linear decrease in total indicator debris, as well as all source categories, for the U.S. Caribbean. Lower magnitude decreases were seen in indicator debris along the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In contrast, only land-based indicators declined in the western Gulf of Mexico; total, ocean-based and general-source indicators remained unchanged. Decreases in land-based indicators were not related to human population in the coastal regions; human population increased in all regions over the time of the study. Significant monthly patterns for indicator debris were found only in the Gulf of Mexico; counts were highest during May through September, with peaks occurring in July. Inclement weather conditions before the time of the survey also accounted for some of the variation in the western Gulf of Mexico; fewer items were found when there were heavy seas or cold fronts in the weeks prior to the survey, while tropical storms (including hurricanes) increased the amount of debris. With the development around the globe of long-term monitoring programs using standardized methodology, there is the potential to help management at individual sites, as well as generate larger-scale perspectives (from regional to global) to inform decision makers. Incorporating mechanisms producing debris into marine debris programs would be a fruitful area for future research.

Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Carribean↗

USGS2024

Does the extent of glacial cover across watersheds and discharge periods affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes in the Northern Gulf of Alaska?

Northern high-latitude glaciers impact nearshore marine ecosystems through the discharge of cold and fresh waters, including nutrients and organic matter. Fishes are important integrators of ecosystem processes and hold key positions in the transfer of energy to higher trophic positions in such systems. This study used a natural gradient in space and time, including watershed glacial cover (0–60%) of five adjacent estuaries and three sequential discharge periods (pre-peak, peak, post-peak) in the northern Gulf of Alaska (Kachemak Bay) to test whether differences in glacial cover of watersheds upstream of estuaries affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes. Dietary resource use was assessed using stomach content and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses to determine fish diet composition and trophic niche width. Crescent gunnel ( Pholis laeta ), a mostly sedentary species, was our focal species for comparisons across estuaries and discharge periods. Discharge period had a greater influence on diet composition and trophic niche width of crescent gunnels than watershed glacial coverage. Niche width of crescent gunnel was larger during the post-peak discharge period compared to pre-peak and peak periods, coincident with a shift in prey spectrum. However, watershed glacial cover was not a suitable predictor of niche width of crescent gunnel. Trophic resource use was also considered along this glacial cover gradient for two other fish species, Pacific staghorn sculpin ( Leptocottus armatus ) and starry flounder ( Platichthys stellatus ), but within the post-peak discharge period only. These species exploited a larger prey base compared to crescent gunnel, likely due to their greater mobility. Similar to crescent gunnel, there were no relationships in trophic niche width associated with watershed glacial coverage for these other species during the post-peak discharge period. Instead, trophic resource use of these three nearshore fish species was influenced by a more complex set of dynamic environmental variables (salinity, temperature, turbidity, and discharge), as well as static watershed characteristics, especially vegetation cover. Such drivers can act through changes in metabolic rates, modulating foraging strategies and trophic connectivity, as well as terrestrial nutrient delivery to support estuarine production. The environmental conditions associated with the glacially influenced estuaries during our study period (2020−2021) seemed within a range that allowed nearshore fishes to maintain energy pathways and prey bases across these estuaries, but it is unknown how these estuarine food webs may be influenced in years of extreme conditions such as during heat waves, droughts, or floods.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗