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USGS2025

Trade-offs in designing a participatory acoustic study of bats: Comparison of user engagement and data quality between two ultrasonic detectors

Technology for the acoustic detection of animals has advanced rapidly over the past few decades. Due to ease of use, consistency, and safety, acoustic methods are particularly useful for science applications that engage the public. In this study, we evaluated the technological and educational trade-offs between 2 acoustic bat detectors in a participatory science application along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Both devices were deployed simultaneously by commercial river guides in parallel with sampling insect prey for 1 h at dusk on 48 dates between April and October 2022. The detector with higher data quality capabilities recorded more bats overall (a mean of 231 more passes per hour) and more species (19 species, including 4 not detected by the lower quality detector). However, data from both detectors showed a decrease in total bat activity from spring to fall, despite the differences in recording capabilities. We conclude that detector quality matters, but user engagement is important when designing participatory research.

Journal of North American Bat Research↗

USGS2016

Potential utility of environmental DNA for early detection of Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum )

Considering the harmful and irreversible consequences of many biological invasions, early detection of an invasive species is an important step toward protecting ecosystems (Sepulveda et al. 2012). Early detection increases the probability that suppression or eradication efforts will be successful because invasive populations are small and localized (Vander Zanden et al. 2010). However, most invasive species are not detected early because current tools have low detection probabilities when target species are rare and the sampling effort required to achieve acceptable detection capabilities with current tools is seldom tractable (Jerde et al. 2011). As a result, many invasive species go undetected until they are abundant and suppression efforts become costly. Novel DNA-based surveillance tools have recently revolutionized early detection abilities using environmental DNA (eDNA) present in the water (Darling and Mahon 2011, Bohmann et al. 2014). In brief, eDNA monitoring enables the identification of organisms from DNA present and collected in water samples. Aquatic and semiaquatic organisms release DNA contained in sloughed, damaged, or partially decomposed tissue and waste products into the water and molecular techniques allow this eDNA in the water column to be identified from simple and easy-tocollect water samples (Darling and Mahon 2011). Despite limited understanding of the production, persistence, and spread of DNA in water (Barnes et al. 2014), eDNA monitoring has been applied not only to invasive species (Jerde et al. 2011), but also to species that are rare, endangered, or highly elusive (Spear et al. 2014). However, most eDNA research and monitoring has focused on detection of invertebrates and vertebrates and less attentionhas been given to developing eDNA techniques for detecting aquatic invasive plants. Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM; Myriophyllum spicatum L.) is an invasive species for which improved early detection would be particularly helpful. Advanced EWM invasions have negative impacts on native biodiversity, recreational boating, fishing, and other types of aquatic tourism (e.g., Eiswerth et al. 2000). On a broader scale, EWM can also be harmful to man-made aquatic infrastructure, such as hydroelectric dams. If an EWM invasion can be detected in an early stage where eradication is still a possibility, many of these negative consequences can be limited or prevented altogether (e.g., Madsen et al. 2002). The purpose of this research was to develop and validate a traditional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the detection of pure and hybridized EWM DNA using both laboratory and field experiments. We performed a pilot experiment in outdoor tanks to determine the basic functionality and sensitivity of the assay. Following this initial test, we collected field samples from Michigan and Montana lakes with and without known EWM populations. Taken together, our findings suggest that eDNA techniques have potential to be a useful strategy for the early detection of EWM.

Journal of Aquatic Plant Management↗

USGS2009

The length of channelized lava flows: Insight from the 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai‘i

The 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i, produced paired 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flows of exceptional length (51 km). The 'a'ā flow field is distinguished by a long (> 36 km) and well-defined pāhoehoe-lined channel, indicating that channelized lava remained fluid to great distances from the vent. The 1859 eruption was further unusual in initiating at a radial vent on the volcano's northwest flank, instead of along the well-defined rift zone that has been the source of most historic activity. As such, it presents an opportunity both to examine controls on the emplacement of long lava channels and to assess hazards posed by future flank eruptions of Mauna Loa. Here we combine evidence from historical chronicles with analysis of bulk compositions, glass geothermometry, and microlite textures of samples collected along the 1859 lava flows to constrain eruption and flow emplacement conditions. The bulk compositions of samples from the 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flow fields are bimodally distributed and indicate tapping of two discrete magma bodies during eruption. Samples from the pāhoehoe flow field have bulk compositions similar to those of historically-erupted lavas (< 8 wt.% MgO); lava that fed the 'a'ā channel is more primitive (> 8 wt.% MgO), nearly aphyric, and was erupted at high temperatures (1194–1216 °C). We suggest that the physical properties of proximal channel-fed lava (i.e., high-temperature, low crystallinity, and low bulk viscosity) promoted both rapid flow advance and development of long pāhoehoe-lined channels. Critical for the latter was the large temperature decrease (~ 50 °C) required to reach the point at which plagioclase and pyroxene started to crystallize; the importance of phase constraints are emphasized by our difficulty in replicating patterns of cooling and crystallization recorded by high-temperature field samples using common models of flow emplacement. Placement of the 1859 eruption within the context of historic activity at Mauna Loa suggests that the formation of radial vents and eruptions of high-temperature magma may not only be linked, but may also be a consequence of periods of high magma supply (e.g., 1843–1877). Flank eruptions could therefore warrant special consideration in models and hazard mitigation efforts.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

Application of organic petrography in North American shale petroleum systems: A review

Organic petrography via incident light microscopy has broad application to shale petroleum systems, including delineation of thermal maturity windows and determination of organo-facies. Incident light microscopy allows practitioners the ability to identify various types of organic components and demonstrates that solid bitumen is the dominant organic matter occurring in shale plays of peak oil and gas window thermal maturity, whereas oil-prone Type I/II kerogens have converted to hydrocarbons and are not present. High magnification SEM observation of an interconnected organic porosity occurring in the solid bitumen of thermally mature shale reservoirs has enabled major advances in our understanding of hydrocarbon migration and storage in shale, but suffers from inability to confirm the type of organic matter present. Herein we review organic petrography applications in the North American shale plays through discussion of incident light photographic examples. In the first part of the manuscript we provide basic practical information on the measurement of organic reflectance and outline fluorescence microscopy and other petrographic approaches to the determination of thermal maturity. In the second half of the paper we discuss applications of organic petrography and SEM in all of the major shale petroleum systems in North America including tight oil plays such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara, and shale gas and condensate plays including the Barnett, Duvernay, Haynesville-Bossier, Marcellus, Utica, and Woodford, among others. Our review suggests systematic research employing correlative high resolution imaging techniques and in situ geochemical probing is needed to better document hydrocarbon storage, migration and wettability properties of solid bitumen at the pressure and temperature conditions of shale reservoirs.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2009

Mapping Curie temperature depth in the western United States with a fractal model for crustal magnetization

We have revisited the problem of mapping depth to the Curie temperature isotherm from magnetic anomalies in an attempt to provide a measure of crustal temperatures in the western United States. Such methods are based on the estimation of the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources, which is assumed to correspond to the temperature at which rocks lose their spontaneous magnetization. In this study, we test and apply a method based on the spectral analysis of magnetic anomalies. Early spectral analysis methods assumed that crustal magnetization is a completely uncorrelated function of position. Our method incorporates a more realistic representation where magnetization has a fractal distribution defined by three independent parameters: the depths to the top and bottom of magnetic sources and a fractal parameter related to the geology. The predictions of this model are compatible with radial power spectra obtained from aeromagnetic data in the western United States. Model parameters are mapped by estimating their value within a sliding window swept over the study area. The method works well on synthetic data sets when one of the three parameters is specified in advance. The application of this method to western United States magnetic compilations, assuming a constant fractal parameter, allowed us to detect robust long-wavelength variations in the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources. Depending on the geologic and geophysical context, these features may result from variations in depth to the Curie temperature isotherm, depth to the mantle, depth to the base of volcanic rocks, or geologic settings that affect the value of the fractal parameter. Depth to the bottom of magnetic sources shows several features correlated with prominent heat flow anomalies. It also shows some features absent in the map of heat flow. Independent geophysical and geologic data sets are examined to determine their origin, thereby providing new insights on the thermal and geologic crustal structure of the western United States.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Since “Groundwater and surface water–A single resource”: some U.S. Geological Survey advances in modeling groundwater/surface-water interactions

Field and interpretive studies conducted by T.C. Winter and U.S. Geological Survey colleagues, and summarized in the 1998 publication “Groundwater and Surface Water – A Single Resource”, inspired a new generation of research centered on extensions of the groundwater-flow code MODFLOW to more sophisticated simulation of coupled groundwater and surface-water systems. Guided by emerging concerns with water availability, safe yields from wells, health of aquatic habitat, and climate change, the changes to MODFLOW involve: 1) the ability to more precisely and accurately represent the interface between surface and subsurface flows and 2) the consideration of a variety of mechanisms that influence their interaction. A review of the most important changes to the code is supplemented in this article by selected case studies in an effort to show the scope of the advances. The updates discussed include the Streamflow Routing (SFR), Lake (LAK), and Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF) Packages in MODFLOW-2005 and the Groundwater Management (GWM), Local Grid Refinement (LGR), and Newton (NWT) formulation versions of MODFLOW-2005. New developments feature the integration of rainfall-runoff modeling with MODFLOW in GSFLOW, coupling of GFLOW and MODFLOW in a hybrid code, and the forthcoming unstructured grid version of MODFLOW. They promise continued advances in the ability to use science to protect the single water resource.

Acque Sotterranee: Italian Journal of Groundwater↗

USGS2009

The changing global carbon cycle: Linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences

Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell & Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR, i.e. primarily decomposition). Under conditions near steady state, geographic patterns of decomposition closely match those of NPP, and net C emissions are adequately described as a simple balance of NPP and HR (the Woodwell-Whittaker model). This close coupling between NPP and HR occurs largely because of tight coupling between C and N (nitrogen) cycles and because NPP constrains the food available to heterotrophs. Processes in addition to NPP and HR become important to understanding net C emissions from ecosystems under conditions of rapid changes in climate, hydrology, atmospheric CO 2 , land cover, species composition and/or N deposition. Inclusion of these processes in climate-C cycle models would improve their capacity to simulate recent and future climatic change. Processes that appear critical to soil C dynamics but warrant further research before incorporation into ecosystem models include below-ground C flux and its partitioning among roots, mycorrhizas and exudates; microbial community effects on C sequestration; and the effects of temperature and labile C on decomposition. The controls over and consequences of these processes are still unclear at the ecosystem scale. Carbon fluxes in addition to NPP and HR exert strong influences over the climate system under conditions of rapid change. These fluxes include methane release, wildfire, and lateral transfers of food and fibre among ecosystems. Water and energy exchanges are important complements to C cycle feedbacks to the climate system, particularly under non-steady-state conditions. An integrated understanding of multiple ecosystem-climate feedbacks provides a strong foundation for policies to mitigate climate change. Synthesis . Current climate systems models that include only NPP and HR are inadequate under conditions of rapid change. Many of the recent advances in biogeochemical understanding are sufficiently mature to substantially improve representation of ecosystem C dynamics in these models.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2005

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

An automated imagery orthorectification pilot

Automated orthorectification of raw image products is now possible based on the comprehensive metadata collected by Global Positioning Systems and Inertial Measurement Unit technology aboard aircraft and satellite digital imaging systems, and based on emerging pattern-matching and automated image-to-image and control point selection capabilities in many advanced image processing systems. Automated orthorectification of standard aerial photography is also possible if a camera calibration report and sufficient metadata is available. Orthorectification of historical imagery, for which only limited metadata was available, was also attempted and found to require some user input, creating a semi-automated process that still has significant potential to reduce processing time and expense for the conversion of archival historical imagery into geospatially enabled, digital formats, facilitating preservation and utilization of a vast archive of historical imagery. Over 90 percent of the frames of historical aerial photos used in this experiment were successfully orthorectified to the accuracy of the USGS 100K base map series utilized for the geospatial reference of the archive. The accuracy standard for the 100K series maps is approximately 167 feet (51 meters). The main problems associated with orthorectification failure were cloud cover, shadow and historical landscape change which confused automated image-to-image matching processes. Further research is recommended to optimize automated orthorectification methods and enable broad operational use, especially as related to historical imagery archives.

Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2019

Thermal, deformation, and degassing remote sensing time-series (A.D. 2000-2017) at the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for volcanic systems

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multi-parameter datasets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America, and compare these datasets to ground-based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program (GVP). This first comparison of multi-satellite time-series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, non-, pre-, syn- and post-eruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite-based capabilities and new instruments.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2019

Seismic and acoustic signatures of surficial mass movements at volcanoes

Surficial mass movements, such as debris avalanches, rock falls, lahars, pyroclastic flows, and outburst floods, are a dominant hazard at many volcanoes worldwide. Understanding these processes, cataloging their spatio-temporal occurrence, and detecting, tracking, and characterizing these events would advance the science of volcano monitoring and help mitigate hazards. Seismic and acoustic methods show promise for achieving these objectives: many surficial mass movements generate observable seismic and acoustic signals, and many volcanoes are already monitored. Significant progress has been made toward understanding, modeling, and extracting quantitative information from seismic and infrasonic signals generated by surficial mass movements. However, much work remains. In this paper, we review the state of the art of the topic, covering a range of scales and event types from individual rock falls to sector collapses. We consider a full variety of volcanic settings, from submarine to subaerial, shield volcano to stratovolcano. Finally, we discuss future directions toward operational seismo-acoustic monitoring of surficial mass movements at volcanoes.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2019

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2002

Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M 7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (ΔCFS( t )) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying “dynamic” portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent “static” portion (ΔCFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ΔCFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ΔCFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ΔCFS( t ) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ΔCFS and the maximum positive value of ΔCFS( t ) (peak ΔCFS( t )) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ΔCFS and peak ΔCFS( t ) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ΔCFS, creates larger peak ΔCFS( t ) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ΔCFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

The soil physics contributions of Edgar Buckingham

During 1902 to 1906 as a soil physicist at the USDA Bureau of Soils (BOS), Edgar Buckingham originated the concepts of matric potential, soil–water retention curves, specific water capacity, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity ( K ) as a distinct property of a soil. He applied a formula equivalent to Darcy's law (though without specific mention of Darcy's work) to unsaturated flow. He also contributed significant research on quasi-empirical formulas for K as a function of water content, water flow in capillary crevices and in thin films, and scaling. Buckingham's work on gas flow in soils produced paradigms that are consistent with our current understanding. His work on evaporation elucidated the concept of self-mulching and produced sound and sometimes paradoxical generalizations concerning conditions that favor or retard evaporation. Largely overshadowing those achievements, however, is that he launched a theory, still accepted today, that could predict transient water content as a function of time and space. Recently discovered documents reveal some of the arguments Buckingham had with BOS officials, including the text of a two-paragraph conclusion of his famous 1907 report on soil water, and the official letter documenting rejection of that text. Strained interpersonal relations motivated the departure of Buckingham and other brilliant physicists (N.E. Dorsey, F.H. King, and Lyman Briggs) from the BOS during 1903 to 1906. Given that Buckingham and his BOS colleagues had been rapidly developing the means of quantifying unsaturated flow, these strained relations probably slowed the advancement of unsaturated flow theory.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS2017

Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System

This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

Journal of Operational Oceanography↗

USGS2025

Northward migrations of nonbreeding Bald Eagles from Arizona, USA.

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of migratory and nonbreeding-season movements by animals is critical for conservation, but can be difficult to obtain if animals move far from known breeding territories and across administrative and country borders. To understand the migratory movements of Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) originating from a demographically closed population in Arizona, USA, we deployed GPS transmitters on 24 juveniles and 2 nonbreeding adult eagles between 2017 and 2023. We identified common migration routes, stopover locations, and migration phenology. Eagles moved north from Arizona during the population's post-breeding period in the boreal spring and summer, and returned south in autumn in advance of the breeding season. Eagles migrated along two primary routes: (1) along the Wasatch Mountains in Utah and extending into the Rocky Mountains of southern Idaho, and (2) through eastern Nevada and along the Rocky Mountains in western and northern Idaho. Stopover locations were frequently near lakes and rivers. Recent fledglings began migration later than older individuals and 15 of 16 of these juveniles that survived until the following breeding season returned to Arizona. The individual that did not return showed evidence of permanent emigration to northern California. Our results contribute to a growing understanding of avian migration routes within the Pacific Flyway and the diverse migration strategies, including northward migration following the breeding season, exhibited across raptor populations. We highlight that explicit studies of juveniles, subadults, and nonbreeding adults are key to understanding avian migration dynamics and identifying opportunities for conservation.

Arizona↗

USGS2011

Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1 ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6 ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70 years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5 ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4 m during the following 500 years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes.

Michigan↗

USGS2019

Incorporating uncertainty and risk into decision making to reduce nitrogen inputs to impaired waters

This article aims to understand decision making under uncertainty and risk, with a case study on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Decision makers need to consider imperfect information on the cost and effectiveness of advanced nitrogen-removing on-site wastewater treatment systems as options to mitigate water quality degradation. Research included modeling nitrogen load reduction to impaired coastal waters from seven treatment system technologies and eliciting expert knowledge on their costs. Predictions of nitrogen load removal and cost for each technology incorporated variation in effectiveness and uncertainty in household water use, costs, and expert confidence in costs. The predictions were evaluated using the Pareto efficiency concept to reveal tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness. The stochastic dominance index was used to identify preferred technologies for risk-averse decision making, assuming no further learning is possible. Lastly, the predictions were combined into a cost-effectiveness metric to estimate the expected payoff of implementing the best treatment system in the face of uncertainty and the expected payoff of learning which treatment systems are most cost-effective over time. The expected value of perfect information was calculated as the difference between the expected payoffs. Three technologies revealed Pareto efficient tradeoffs between cost and effectiveness, whereas one technology was the preferred risk-averse option in the absence of future learning. There was a high expected value of perfect information, which could motivate adaptive management on Cape Cod. This research demonstrated decision analysis methods to guide future research and decision making toward meeting water quality objectives and reducing uncertainty.

Massachusetts↗