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USGS2021

Implications of zoonoses from hunting and use of wildlife in North American arctic and boreal biomes: Pandemic potential, monitoring, and mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

USGS2020

Millennial-scale climate and human drivers of environmental change and fire activity in a dry, mixed-conifer forest of northwestern Montana

Warm summer temperatures and longer fire seasons are promoting larger, and in some cases, more fires that are severe in low- and mid-elevation, dry mixed-conifer forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM). Long-term historical fire conditions and human influence on past fire activity are not well understood for these topographically and biophysically heterogeneous forests. We developed reconstructions of millennial-scale fire activity, vegetation change, and human presence at Black Lake, a small closed-basin lake on the Flathead Indian Reservation in the Mission Valley, Northwestern Montana, United States. Fossil pollen, charcoal, and biomarkers associated with human presence were used to evaluate the interaction between climate variability, fire activity, vegetation change and human activity for the past 7000 years. Comparisons among multiple proxies suggest climate variability acted as the primary control on fire activity and vegetation change from the early Holocene until the late Holocene when records suggest fire activity and climate variability decoupled. Specific biomarkers (5β-stanols including coprostanol and epi-coprostanol) associated with human presence indicate humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for thousands of years, although the inferred intensity of human presence is highly variable. A strong relationship between climate variability and fire activity during the early and mid-Holocene weakens during the last few thousand years, suggesting possible increased influence of humans in mediating fire activity in recent millennia, and/or a shift in the interaction between the distribution and abundance of woody fuel and fire severity. Human-set fires during the cooler and wetter late Holocene may have been aimed at maintaining important cultural resources associated with the heterogeneous mosaic of mixed conifer forests within the Black Lake watershed. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction at Black Lake corroborates archeological records that show humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for over 7000 years. Further research is needed to evaluate the evidence for this continuous presence and the possible role that people played in shaping fire regimes and vegetation within low- to mid-elevation mixed-conifer ecosystems of the NRM.

Montana↗

USGS2015

Moisture and temperature controls on nitrification differ among ammonia oxidizer communities from three alpine soil habitats

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of biogeochemical fluxes in many high elevation ecosystems. The consequent changes in alpine nitrification rates have the potential to influence ecosystem scale responses. In order to better understand how changing temperature and moisture conditions may influence ammonia oxidizers and nitrification activity, we conducted laboratory incubations on soils collected in a Colorado watershed from three alpine habitats (glacial outwash, talus, and meadow). We found that bacteria, not archaea, dominated all ammonia oxidizer communities. Nitrification increased with moisture in all soils and under all temperature treatments. However, temperature was not correlated with nitrification rates in all soils. Site-specific temperature trends suggest the development of generalist ammonia oxidizer communities in soils with greater in situ temperature fluctuations and specialists in soils with more steady temperature regimes. Rapidly increasing temperatures and changing soil moisture conditions could explain recent observations of increased nitrate production in some alpine soils.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Resistance, resilience, and recovery of dryland soil bacterial communities across multiple disturbances

Dryland ecosystems are sensitive to perturbations and generally slow to recover post disturbance. The microorganisms residing in dryland soils are especially important as they contribute to soil structure and nutrient cycling. Disturbance can have particularly strong effects on dryland soil structure and function, yet the natural resistance and recovery of the microbial components of dryland soils has not been well documented. In this study, the recovery of surface soil bacterial communities from multiple physical and environmental disturbances is assessed. Samples were collected from three field sites in the vicinity of Moab, UT, United States, 6 to 7 years after physical and climate disturbance manipulations had been terminated, allowing for the assessment of community recovery. Additionally, samples were collected in a transect that included three habitat patches: the canopy zone soils under the dominant shrubs, the interspace soils that are colonized by biological soil crusts, and edge soils at the plot borders. Field site and habitat patch were significant factors structuring the bacterial communities, illustrating that sites and habitats harbored unique soil microbiomes. Across the different sites and disturbance treatments, there was evidence of significant bacterial community recovery, as bacterial biomass and diversity were not significantly different than control plots. There was, however, a small number of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variants that distinguished particular treatments, suggesting that legacy effects of the disturbances still remained. Taken together, these data suggest that dryland bacterial communities may possess a previously unappreciated potential to recover within years of the original disturbance.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2021

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2025

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline↗

USGS2018

A dirty dozen ways to die: Metrics and modifiers of mortality driven by drought and warming for a tree species

Tree mortality events driven by drought and warmer temperature, often amplified by pests and pathogens, are emerging as one of the predominant climate change impacts on plants. Understanding and predicting widespread tree mortality events in the future is vital as they affect ecosystem goods and services provided by forests and woodlands, including carbon storage needed to help offset warming. Additionally, if extensive enough, tree die-off events can influence not only local climate but also climate and vegetation elsewhere via ecoclimate teleconnections. Consequently, recent efforts have focused on improving predictions of tree mortality. One of the most commercially important genera of trees is Pinus , and the most studied species globally for drought-induced tree mortality is piñon pine, Pinus edulis . Numerous metrics have been developed in association with predicting mortality thresholds or variations in mortality for this species. In this article, we compiled metrics associated with drought and warming related mortality that were developed for P. edulis or for which P. edulis was a key example species used in a calculation or prediction. We grouped these metrics into three categories: (i) those related to simple climate variables, (ii) those related to physiological responses, and (iii) those that require multi-step calculations or modeling using climate, ecohydrological, and/or ecophysiological data; and we identified the spatial-temporal scale of each of these metrics. We also compiled factors shown to modify rates or sensitivities of mortality. The metrics to predict mortality include empirical ones which often have implicit linkages to expected mechanisms, and more mechanistic ones related to physiological drivers. The metrics for P. edulis have similarities with those available for other species of Pinus . Expected future mortality events will provide an opportunity to observationally and experimentally test and compare these metrics related to tree mortality for P. edulis via near-term ecological forecasting. The metrics for P. edulis may also be useful as potential analogs for other genera. Improving predictions of tree mortality for this species and others will be increasingly important as an aid to move toward anticipatory management.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

USGS2021

Contrasting geographic patterns of ignition probability and burn severity in the Mojave Desert

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires > 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (<1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2022

Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments

Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.

Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dako↗

USGS2016

One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

Frontiers of Biogeography↗

USGS2021

Testing a generalizable machine learning workflow for aquatic invasive species on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in northwest Montana

Biological invasions are accelerating worldwide, causing major ecological and economic impacts in aquatic ecosystems. The urgent decision-making needs of invasive species managers can be better met by the integration of biodiversity big data with large-domain models and data-driven products. Remotely sensed data products can be combined with existing invasive species occurrence data via machine learning models to provide the proactive spatial risk analysis necessary for implementing coordinated and agile management paradigms across large scales. We present a workflow that generates rapid spatial risk assessments on aquatic invasive species using occurrence data, spatially explicit environmental data, and an ensemble approach to species distribution modeling using five machine learning algorithms. For proof of concept and validation, we tested this workflow using extensive spatial and temporal hybridization and occurrence data from a well-studied, ongoing, and climate-driven species invasion in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana, USA. Rainbow Trout (RBT; Oncorhynchus mykiss), an introduced species in the Flathead River basin, compete and readily hybridize with native Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT; O. clarkii lewisii), and the spread of RBT individuals and their alleles has been tracked for decades. We used remotely sensed and other geospatial data as key environmental predictors for projecting resultant habitat suitability to geographic space. The ensemble modeling technique yielded high accuracy predictions relative to 30-fold cross-validated datasets (87% 30-fold cross-validated accuracy score). Both top predictors and model performance relative to these predictors matched current understanding of the drivers of RBT invasion and habitat suitability, indicating that temperature is a major factor influencing the spread of invasive RBT and hybridization with native WCT. The congruence between more time-consuming modeling approaches and our rapid machine-learning approach suggest that this workflow could be applied more broadly to provide data-driven management information for early detection of potential invaders.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗

USGS2026

Annual grass invasion is transforming the sagebrush biome’s songbird communities

Novel stressors like climate change and biological invasions alter ecological communities, resulting in changes to ecosystem services and biodiversity (that is, ecological transformation). Most ecological transformation research focuses on plants, but animals are likely affected by and plausibly mediate the extent, impact, and pace of transformations. In western North America, where invasive annual grasses are transforming sagebrush-steppe ecosystems, we quantified how transformation in vegetation drives songbird community change. We hypothesized that transformation of vegetation communities via invasion alters wildlife communities by favoring generalists over specialists, albeit with extinction debts that may temporarily obscure transformations’ consequences. Although local-scale songbird diversity increased with grass invasion, we found that this shift was accompanied by ongoing reorganization of songbird communities at larger scales (across the sagebrush biome), driven by heterogeneous impacts of invasion among species and guilds. Through our biome-wide analysis, we were also able to identify high-priority regions for conservation of sensitive songbird species. Our research provides evidence that wildlife communities are transforming alongside vegetation communities and offers insight into the approaches required to quantify nascent community turnover.

western United States↗

USGS2022

Effective conservation of desert riverscapes requires protection and restoration of in-stream flows with rehabilitation approaches tailored to water availability

Desert riverscape rehabilitation practitioners must contend with compounding effects of increasing human water demand, persistent drought, non-native species establishment, and climate change, which further stress desert riverine ecosystems such as rivers in the Colorado River basin, United States. Herein, we provide our perspective on the importance of natural flows, large floods in particular, for successful conservation and rehabilitation of riverscapes. We present ideas developed from our experience with rehabilitation projects across multiple desert tributary rivers with varying levels of habitat degradation and water abstraction. We propose spatially extensive measures such as protection of in-stream flows, tailoring rehabilitation efforts to available annual water availability, and working with nature using low-tech process-based techniques to more completely address the mechanisms of habitat degradation, such as flow reduction and vegetation-induced channel narrowing. Traditionally, rehabilitation efforts in the Colorado River basin take place at relatively small spatial extents, at convenient locations and, largely focus on reducing non-native plant and fish species. We suggest that we need to think more broadly and creatively, and that conservation or recovery of natural flow regimes is crucial to long-term success of almost all management efforts for both in-stream and riparian communities.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2018

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Homogenization of soil seed bank communities by fire and invasive species in the Mojave Desert

Soil seed banks help maintain species diversity through temporal storage effects and function as germination pools that can optimize fitness across varying environmental conditions. These characteristics promote the persistence of native plant communities, yet disturbances such as fire and associated invasions by non-native species can disrupt these reserves, fundamentally altering successional trajectories. This may be particularly true in deserts, where native plant communities are less adapted to fire. While studies of fire effects on desert plant communities are not uncommon, information regarding the short- and long-term effects of fire on seed banks is less available. To better understand the influence of fire and invasive species on desert seed banks, we investigated soil seed bank biodiversity from 30 wildfires that burned between 1972 and 2010 across the Mojave Desert ecoregion of North America. We assessed how characteristics of fire regimes (frequency, time since fire, and burn severity) interacted with climate and invasive plants on measures of α-, β-, and γ-diversities. Because β-diversity is a direct measure of community variability and reveals important information about biodiversity loss, we further examined the nestedness and turnover components of β-diversity. Mean α- and γ-diversities were generally higher for burned locations than in unburned reference sites, however individual fire variables had little influence on patterns of seed bank diversity. Burned area seed banks tended to be dominated by non-native invasive species, primarily two grasses, ( Bromus rubens , Bromus tectorum ), as well as an invasive forb ( Erodium cicutarium ). The most striking pattern we observed was a collective sharp decline in α-, β-, and γ-diversities with increased invasive species dominance, indicating the homogenization of seed bank communities with the colonization of invasive species after fire. Evidence of homogenization was further supported by reduced turnover and increased nestedness in burn areas compared to reference areas indicating potential biodiversity loss. Our findings highlight how biological processes such as plant invasions can combine with disturbance from fire to alter patterns of seed bank composition and diversity in desert ecosystems.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

An assessment of plant species differences on cellulose oxygen isotopes from two Kenai Peninsula, Alaska peatlands: Implications for hydroclimatic reconstructions

Peat cores are valuable archives of past environmental change because they accumulate plant organic matter over millennia. While studies have primarily focused on physical, ecological, and some biogeochemical proxies, cores from peatlands have increasingly been used to interpret hydroclimatic change using stable isotope analyses of cellulose preserved in plant remains. Previous studies indicate that the stable oxygen isotope compositions (δ 18 O) preserved in alpha cellulose extracted from specific plant macrofossils reflect the δ 18 O values of past peatland water and thereby provide information on long-term changes in hydrology in response to climate. Oxygen isotope analyses of peat cellulose (δ 18 O cellulose ) have been successfully developed from peat cores that accumulate the same species for millennia. However, to fully exploit the potential of this proxy in species-diverse fens, studies are needed that account for the isotopic variations caused by changes in dominant species composition. This study assesses variation in δ 18 O values among peatland plant species and how they relate to environmental waters in two fens informally named Horse Trail and Goldfin, located on the leeward (dry) and windward (wet) side, respectively, of the climatic gradient across the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Environmental water δ 18 O values at both fens reflect unmodified δ 18 O values of mean annual precipitation, although at Goldfin standing pools were slightly influenced by evaporation. Modern plant [mosses and Carex spp. (sedges)] δ 18 O cellulose values indicate that all Carex spp. are higher (~2.5‰) than those of mosses, likely driven by their vascular structure and ecophysiological difference from non-vascular mosses. Moss δ 18 O cellulose values within each peatland are similar among the species, and differences appear related to evaporation effects on environmental waters within hummocks and hollows. The plant taxa-environmental water δ 18 O differences are applied to the previously determined Horse Trail Fen untreated bulk δ 18 O record. Results include significant changes to inferred millennial-to-centennial scale hydroclimatic trends where dominant taxa shift from moss to Carex spp., indicating that modern calibration datasets are necessary for interpreting stable isotopes from fens, containing a mix of vascular and nonvascular plants. Accounting for isotopic offsets through macrofossil analysis and modern plant-water isotope measurements opens new opportunities for hydroclimatic reconstructions from fen peatlands.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Functional wetland loss drives emerging risks to waterbird migration networks

Migratory waterbirds (i.e., shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) rely on a diffuse continental network of wetland habitats to support annual life cycle needs. Emerging threats of climate and land-use change raise new concerns over the sustainability of these habitat networks as water scarcity triggers cascading ecological effects impacting wetland habitat availability. Here we use important waterbird regions in Oregon and California, United States, as a model system to examine patterns of landscape change impacting wetland habitat networks in western North America. Wetland hydrology and flooded agricultural habitats were monitored monthly from 1988 to 2020 using satellite imagery to quantify the timing and duration of inundation—a key delimiter of habitat niche values associated with waterbird use. Trends were binned by management practice and wetland hydroperiods (semi-permanent, seasonal, and temporary) to identify differences in their climate and land-use change sensitivity. Wetland results were assessed using 33 waterbird species to detect non-linear effects of network change across a diversity of life cycle and habitat needs. Pervasive loss of semi-permanent wetlands was an indicator of systemic functional decline. Shortened hydroperiods caused by excessive drying transitioned semi-permanent wetlands to seasonal and temporary hydrologies—a process that in part counterbalanced concurrent seasonal and temporary wetland losses. Expansion of seasonal and temporary wetlands associated with closed-basin lakes offset wetland declines on other public and private lands, including wildlife refuges. Diving ducks, black terns, and grebes exhibited the most significant risk of habitat decline due to semi-permanent wetland loss that overlapped important migration, breeding, molting, and wintering periods. Shorebirds and dabbling ducks were beneficiaries of stable agricultural practices and top-down processes of functional wetland declines that operated collectively to maintain habitat needs. Outcomes from this work provide a novel perspective of wetland ecosystem change affecting waterbirds and their migration networks. Understanding the complexity of these relationships will become increasingly important as water scarcity continues to restructure the timing and availability of wetland resources.

California, Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2008

Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: Mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements

Global climate change is projected to produce warmer, longer, and more frequent droughts, referred to here as “global change-type droughts”, which have the potential to trigger widespread tree die-off. However, drought-induced tree mortality cannot be predicted with confidence, because long-term field observations of plant water stress prior to, and culminating in, mortality are rare, precluding the development and testing of mechanisms. Here, we document plant water stress in two widely distributed, co-occurring species, piñon pine ( Pinus edulis ) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma ), over more than a decade, leading up to regional-scale die-off of piñon pine trees in response to global change-related drought. Piñon leaf water potentials remained substantially below their zero carbon assimilation point for at least 10 months prior to dying, in contrast to those of juniper, which rarely dropped below their zero-assimilation point. These data suggest that piñon mortality was driven by protracted water stress, leading to carbon starvation and associated increases in susceptibility to other disturbances (eg bark beetles), a finding that should help to improve predictions of mortality during drought.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗