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359 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Deaf, deafblind, and hard of hearing university student experiences with earthquake early warning in the United States: Evaluating language planning and technology access

The growing literature on deaf and hard of hearing (DHH+) populations and disasters demonstrates that emergency communication (including alerts) is not reaching global DHH + individuals with dangerous impacts for morbidity and mortality. This is the first research study in the U.S. to qualitatively explore the experiences of DHH + persons with earthquake early warning (EEW) through group-based dialogue sessions. The study investigates eight DHH + university students'past earthquake experiences, access to EEW alerts, and perceptions of ShakeAlert Ⓡ , an EEW system for detecting earthquakes and alerting residents of California, Oregon, and Washington. Findings highlight key gaps in disaster alert usability within four thematic areas: lack of messaging in participants' language(s), unclear alert messaging, deficient message delivery mechanisms for deafblind persons, and insufficient access to earthquake information and training that leads to dependence on informal information networks. Weaknesses identified in these four themes reduce DHH + trust in EEW systems and compromise the capacity of alert recipients to take swift protective action or to mentally prepare before shaking starts. The study also underscores structural factors such as insufficient linguistic representation in disaster language planning and technology design, which ignores the linguistic and sensory access needs of DHH + individuals. Building on disaster language planning frameworks, we recommend involving DHH + populations to co-develop EEW alerts. By centering DHH + perspectives, this research contributes to ongoing efforts to ensure that EEW systems reach everyone.

California↗
USGS2025

Generalized Bancroft algorithm for locating earthquakes with P- and S-wave arrival times

Because of similarities between locating an earthquake with seismic stations and locating a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver from satellites, the Bancroft algorithm developed for GPS processing can be used to locate earthquakes. Such an approach to earthquake location differs from the conventional method of choosing an initial or trial solution and then iteratively improving the solution until convergence. The Bancroft algorithm has the advantage of being a direct, noniterative solution but with the disadvantage of only being able to accommodate a homogeneous velocity model. An additional limitation of the standard Bancroft algorithm is that it considers arrival times in a medium with a single propagation velocity. This poses no problem for GPS processing because electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light; however, for seismic waves it means the algorithm can be applied to collections of either P ‐ or S ‐wave arrival times. Here, I show how the Bancroft algorithm can be generalized to handle both P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time measurements simultaneously. I also show how to accommodate depth‐varying P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity models. I apply the generalized Bancroft algorithm to microearthquakes beneath Tanaga Volcano in Alaska and compare standard locations from the widely used HYPOINVERSE location code to Bancroft locations and to the output of HYPOINVERSE when setting the trial location to the Bancroft location. I find the Bancroft locations outperform the results from the other methods for shallow earthquakes near sea level, where a quantity known as the geometric dilution of precision is large and linearized approaches such as HYPOINVERSE are expected to struggle.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Earthquake rupture arrest from depth‐dependent frictional stability on the Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye (Turkey)

Determining why earthquake ruptures stop is a central challenge in earthquake science and seismic hazard assessment. The Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye, exhibits shallow creep (<∼3 km depth) yet hosts M > 6.5 earthquake ruptures at greater depth. Here, we evaluate whether variations in frictional stability along this segment aided arrest of the 2020 M 6.7 Elaziğ and 2023 M 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake ruptures. Analysis of Sentinel‐1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery indicates the 2023 M 7.8 rupture propagated laterally into a metamorphic massif within the Pütürge segment, where slip rapidly decayed below detection limits. Creepmeters along this segment recorded no significant surface afterslip (<3 mm) in the following year. To investigate this fault‐slip behavior, we conducted triaxial friction experiments on Pütürge fault gouge sampled from an outcrop exposure. The gouge, composed primarily of muscovite, quartz, and calcite, is velocity strengthening at conditions approximating 0–2.5 km depth and velocity weakening at 4–5 km depth. This transition to velocity‐weakening friction is associated with enhanced comminution and shear localization observed microstructurally. Our results suggest that depth‐dependent frictional stability of the Pütürge fault segment facilitates rupture nucleation and propagation at depth while maintaining rupture‐arresting behavior near Earth’s surface.

Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone↗
USGS2025

Reply to, “Comment on ‘The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake: Relic railroad offset reveals rupture,’ by Roger Bilham and Susan E. Hough”

We welcome this opportunity to respond to Pratt et al. (2024) (hereinafter P24). Bilham and Hough (2023) proposed a “first-cut” elastic deformation model for the 1886 earthquake, a quantitative source model constrained by identified coseismic constraints. A key observation was the measurement of a lateral offset of a railroad line south of Summerville, leading to a model with predominately dextral slip and minor convergence, from which we concluded that active faulting had raised the Penholoway Marine Terrace >6 m since ∼770 ka. P24 questioned these constraints and proposed an alternative rupture model with predominantly reverse slip. This alternative model is neither consistent with coseismic constraints nor with other geophysical data. In a revised model presented here, we recognize that uplift of the Penholoway Terrace is confined to the eastern edge of the terrace, which we conclude results from active folding and tectonic transpression centered on the dextral fault that offset the railroad in 1886.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Near-real-time earthquake-induced fatality estimation using crowdsourced data and few-shot large-language models

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties (e.g., fatalities and injuries) is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast of such impacts within about 30 min of any significant earthquake globally. However, existing disaster-induced human loss estimation systems often rely on early casualty reports manually retrieved from global traditional media, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and have significant time latencies. Recent approaches use keyword matching and topic modeling to identify human casualty-relevant information from social media but tend to be error-prone when dealing with complex semantics in multi-lingual text data and parsing dynamically changing and conflicting human death and injury numbers shared by various unvetted sources in social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (i) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (ii) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (iii) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework effectively automates the retrieval of casualty information faster but with comparable accuracy to those now retrieved manually by the USGS. The code associated with this work is made available at: https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/Hierarchical-Earthquake-Casualty-Information-Retrieval

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2024

Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system ( Given et al. , 2018 ). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public alerts were expanded into Oregon and then into Washington ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2024 ). ShakeAlert source results are routinely compared to the USGS Comprehensive Catalog (ComCat; Guy et al. , 2015 ; U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which contains the earthquake location and magnitude determined using complete waveform data. M 4.5 and larger is the threshold used for public alerting and was deliberately set below the level where damage is likely to compensate for cases where the system underestimates the magnitude. Between 17 October 2019 and 1 September 2023, the ShakeAlert system created 95 events with maximum magnitude estimates of M ≥4.5, the public alerting threshold. 94 of the 95 events were due to real earthquakes. Seven were categorized “false” per ShakeAlert’s internal definition that there was no matching catalog event within 100 km and 30 s of origin time; however, all but one of these were real earthquakes that were poorly located, primarily because they were at the edges of the seismic network. Three detected events were labeled “missed” because they were very poorly located (>100 km location error). In addition, the system did not produce solutions for four ComCat events M ≥4.5 ( U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017 ), which were all at the edge of the alerting and network boundaries. The ShakeAlert system has accurately detected the majority of earthquakes that have occurred within the operational region since completing the public rollout, and alerts from the system have been delivered to millions of cell phone users throughout the West Coast.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

The importance of nodal plane orientation diversity for earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions

Inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms are among the most accessible and reliable methods for determining crustal stress. However, the use of this method varies widely, and assumptions that underpin it are often violated, potentially compromising stress estimates. We investigate the consequences of violating the little-studied assumption that the focal mechanisms have diverse orientations. Our approach is to employ data-informed synthetic mechanisms, with nodal plane orientations defined by recent earthquake lineaments in the Midland Basin, western Texas, and rakes consistent with slip in the mapped stress field. Using both the traditional stress inversion method that assumes constant shear stress magnitudes on the causative faults as well as a recently published variable shear stress method, we show that low fault plane diversity can cause maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientation and relative principal stress magnitude (faulting regime) estimates to differ markedly from the true values. This problem is compounded for catalogs with even modest amounts of noise (≤15°) or few (e.g., 20) mechanisms. Significantly, traditional approaches for quantifying uncertainty such as the bootstrap can severely underestimate the true uncertainty under these circumstances. To remedy this, we provide simple tools to quantify nodal plane orientation diversity and stress inversion reliability.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗
USGS2025

Examining the role of elevated and sustained strain in dynamically triggering earthquakes on the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault

Microearthquakes can be dynamically triggered in southern California by remote earthquakes. However, directly connecting dynamic triggering mechanisms with observational data remains challenging. One proposed failure mechanism suggests that both the amplitude and duration of cyclic fatigue caused by the passing seismic wave contribute to triggering occurrence. Here, we measure dynamic strains recorded by borehole strainmeters in the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault zone from 710 earthquakes that occurred over 300 km away between 2008 and 2017 to systematically investigate the role of elevated and sustained strain in controlling dynamic triggering. We design a suite of tests to evaluate whether specific amplitude thresholds and durations of strain can predict dynamic triggering cases. We further test whether the peak dynamic strain (PDS) can predict triggering occurrence in combination with the strain amplitude and duration. Based on these tests, there is no strain amplitude–duration threshold that can distinguish triggering occurrence in Anza. Dynamic triggering is more likely to occur if a remote earthquake causes a PDS above 100 nanostrain, though many cases were triggered at smaller PDSs. The lack of clear correlation between triggering and characteristics of the dynamic strain field suggests that the tested features of the incoming waves do not determine triggering occurrence and local fault conditions and slip processes are more important in controlling dynamic triggering in Anza.

California↗
USGS2024

A seismic nodal deployment to understand magmatic structure in the vicinity of the Pahala earthquake swarm

In summer-fall 2022, 80 three-component SmartSolo IGU-BD3C-5 nodal seismometers were deployed surrounding the Pāhala seismic swarm on the Island of Hawaiʻi, with the goal of improving seismicity catalogs, and seismic velocity images of the crust and upper mantle in this region. The Pāhala swarm, located south of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, has been the site of a multiyear sustained swarm of seismicity at depths of ~ 25 – 40 km, with order of magnitude increases in rate in 2015, and then again in 2019. This seismicity is possibly related to the input of magma from the mantle plume below, which may then be subsequently transported to volcanic edifices. However, these processes remain enigmatic, in part due to a lack of precise earthquake locations and seismic velocity models in this region. Here we provide an overview of the deployment, an assessment of the quality of the collected data, and discuss the viability of the dataset for local earthquake relocation, tomography, and teleseismic receiver functions. Through comparisons with proximal permanent broadband and short period instruments, we find that the nodes produce high quality data, particularly at periods shorter than 5 s, although we find, document, and correct discrepancies with the gain and polarities of the instruments. We successfully record signals from teleseismic earthquakes, even at periods longer than 5 s (the corner of the flat response of the nodes). We also record local earthquakes, including details related to source characteristics. This indicates that the data is likely to prove useful for investigations using both local and teleseismic earthquake signals to better understand the connections between the deep and shallow magmatic systems of Hawaiʻi. While this deployment provides a snapshot in time, its success may provide a useful benchmark for future studies as the volcanic systems of Hawaiʻi continue to evolve in the future.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded seismicity models for use in the 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The previous PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and our new models incorporate updates to both data and methodology. We utilize an updated earthquake catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data with newly characterized completeness epochs. The catalog is divided into crustal, subduction interface, and intraslab seismicity using new methods and Slab2 subduction zone geometries. To forecast the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquakes, we use an updated methodology developed for the 2023 U.S. 50‐state NSHM, considering three declustering methods and two spatial smoothing methods based on 2D Gaussian kernels. To adapt it for the complex seismotectonics of the region, we also adopt probabilistic methods to account for events with unknown depths and uncertainties in tectonic classification, and develop a new method for spatial scaling to counteract the effects of spatial variability in network coverage while maintaining the use of smaller events. Finally, we test the performance of these spatial models in forecasting the location of M w ≥ 5earthquakes in the region. Our updated methodology improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty relative to the 2003 model, and our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new measures we have introduced to address heterogeneities in network detection and systematically evaluate forecast performance.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2025

SURF: An automated method for building nonplanar 3D fault models from earthquake hypocenters

Accurately characterizing 3D fault geometry is vital for improving our understanding of earthquake behavior and informing the development of seismic hazard models. Despite their importance, subsurface fault structures tend to be poorly constrained because of limitations in observational data. Improvements to the seismic networks and earthquake detection algorithms have increased the precision and volume of earthquake catalogs, which help illuminate detailed subsurface fault structure and provide the most direct information available about fault geometries at depth. We present a Python package to automate generating 3D fault geometries directly from hypocentral seismicity patterns. This method begins with clustering events based on their spatial density, identifying coherent patterns. Nearby clusters are then merged based on the similarity of their orientations. We fit nonplanar surfaces using support vector regression to balance surface accuracy with minimal deviations from planarity. The fault models are output as quadrilateral meshes at user‐defined resolution. In the process of generating the 3D fault surfaces, we compute the spatial density of seismicity around the surface and the planarity as quantitative metrics of the model outputs. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to the San Andreas–Calaveras fault junction region and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, both in California, which contain complex subparallel faults well defined at the Earth’s surface and abundant microseismicity. These case studies demonstrate the method’s ability to model complex fault structures, including long continuous fault surfaces, crossing faults, variably dipping segments, and subparallel faults. We test the method on both standard network catalogs and double‐difference relocated catalogs. We find that our seismicity‐based fault model results align with published 3D models that incorporate additional constraints and interpretations ( Plesch et al. , 2020 ; Aagaard and Hirakawa, 2021 ). This workflow provides a low‐user‐input solution for estimating fault geometries at depth from earthquake catalogs.

California↗
USGS2026

Earthquake catalog for the Fairbanks region of central Alaska, 2014–2024, based on waveform cross-correlation

The Fairbanks region of central Alaska is part of a broad zone of intraplate crustal deformation, situated north of the Denali fault and north of the ongoing collision and flat‐slab subduction of the Yakutat oceanic plateau. Seismicity in the Fairbanks region occurs both in diffuse areas as well as in well‐defined lineaments, such as the left‐lateral Salcha fault, which hosted the 1937 M 8 7.3 earthquake. Starting with the regional seismicity catalog, we perform waveform cross‐correlation, network‐matched filtering, and relative relocation to obtain an enhanced seismicity catalog over the time period 2014–2024. Based on the relocated catalog, we interpret a set of 15 fault segments, including two conjugate faults and two new faults east of the previously documented fault system. Considering the combined seismicity in the Minto and Fairbanks regions, the median depth of seismicity decreases from east (6 km) to west (20 km). Our interpreted faults provide guidance for future tectonic modeling and assessment of seismic hazards in this region.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake

On 5 April 2024, 10:23 a.m. local time, a moment magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck Tewksbury Township, New Jersey, about 65 km west of New York City. Millions of people from Virginia to Maine and beyond felt the ground shaking, resulting in the largest number (>180,000) of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” reports of any earthquake. A team deployed by the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association and the National Institute of Standards and Technology documented structural and nonstructural damage, including substantial damage to a historic masonry building in Lebanon, New Jersey. The USGS National Earthquake Information Center reported a focal depth of about 5 km, consistent with a lack of signal in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data. The focal mechanism solution is strike slip with a substantial thrust component. Neither mechanism’s nodal plane is parallel to the primary northeast trend of geologic discontinuities and mapped faults in the region, including the Ramapo fault. However, many of the relocated aftershocks, for which locations were augmented by temporary seismic deployments, form a cluster that parallels the general northeast trend of the faults. The aftershocks lie near the Tewksbury fault, north of the Ramapo fault.

New Jersey↗
USGS2025

The GorDAS Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment above the Cascadia locked zone and subducted Gorda Slab

The southernmost portion of the Cascadia Subduction zone in Northern California produces high rates of moderate and large earthquakes owing to subduction of the Gorda slab and deformation associated with the Mendocino Triple Junction. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly advancing as a method for detecting earthquakes and imaging crustal structure. We have begun a long-term DAS monitoring experiment on buried telecom fiber in Arcata, California, with the goal of increasing the available recordings of moderate to large earthquakes as well as imaging seismogenic structures. We have recorded over a year's worth of data, including most aftershocks of the 2022 M w 6.4 Ferndale earthquake, though not the mainshock itself. The dataset includes numerous magnitude 3.5 and larger earthquakes including the 2023/01/01 M w 5.4 Rio Dell earthquake. Here we present initial results comparing an earthquake detection algorithm, run in real-time on the processing unit of the interrogator system, with both the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system as well as a post-processed earthquake catalog developed with deep-learning phase-picker algorithms. The rapid onboard processing of the detector demonstrates the potential utility of DAS-based edge computing for earthquake early warning. We also verify the quality of the strain waveforms both in terms of peak amplitudes and waveform similarity using about five months of nodal seismometer data. These instruments were deployed roughly every 300 m along the ~15km long cable and validate large variations in peak strain over short distances that are seen in the DAS data. All data from time windows surrounding both the local and teleseismic earthquakes are publicly available, which will improve our understanding of both the performance of DAS systems in moderate earthquakes and earthquake hazards associated with the Gorda subduction zone.

California↗
USGS2026

Constraining source and path effects of large magnitude earthquakes using ground motion simulations

The purpose of this study is to use ground‐motion simulations to investigate ways in which source and path effects for large‐magnitude earthquakes can be represented in nonergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs). To achieve this, we designed a ground‐motion study in the San Francisco Bay Area that includes earthquakes with a broad range of magnitudes distributed uniformly on a fault plane, and sites covering a large range of rupture distances and azimuths. After running a large suite of kinematic simulations (magnitude 4–7), we then develop a nonergodic GMM with the simulated data. We find that trends in the within‐site residuals are affected significantly by the earthquake radiation pattern, rupture directivity, and slip patterns. Next, we modify an existing rupture directivity model to fit and remove the observed radiation pattern and rupture directivity from the residuals. We also minimize the contributions of slip patterns by averaging the within‐site residuals among multiple source realizations. Finally, after removing the source effects from the within‐site residuals, we compare the path effects computed with different magnitude groups using two approaches. The first approach only considers the small events that have the same shortest path to a site as the large events, whereas the second approach considers all small events on the fault plane. The results indicate that it is difficult to satisfactorily approximate the path effects of large events with those of small events using either approach, at least in the case of simulations.

California↗
USGS2025

National population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to earthquake-generated tsunami threats

Previous efforts to characterize tsunami threats to people have focused primarily on individual scenarios in specific areas but have not recognized multiple scenarios across an entire country. This study addresses this gap by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential in the United States to 102 earthquake-related, tsunami-hazard zones, including 92 local scenarios, 8 distant scenarios, and 2 probabilistic products. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential and the influence of departure delays. We focused on residents to support other national, multi-hazard risk analyses. Millions of residents are in distant-tsunami zones, and hundreds of thousands of residents are in local-tsunami zones. In 41 scenarios, there is at least one resident that may have insufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Tens of thousands of residents may have insufficient time to evacuate from local tsunamis that impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Puerto Rican coastlines. The largest improvements in evacuation potential may come from reducing departure delays in some areas but may involve vertical-evacuation structures or changing land use in other areas.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2024

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the stress level in the lower seismogenic portion of the Cascadia megathrust. On 2022 December 20, a M w 6.4 strike-slip earthquake occurred near Ferndale, California in southern Cascadia and likely ruptured the Gorda slab crust in the lower seismogenic portion, providing an opportunity to assess the stress level in this region. Here, we relocate the Ferndale mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks using a high-resolution 3-D velocity model and estimate rupture dimensions, directivity, and stress drop for several M w 4-5 aftershocks and recent earthquakes. The aftershocks define a strike-slip fault in the slab crust striking ENE, consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism. The orientation of this fault is about 45 ° off the ideally oriented fault plane given the stress state in the slab. The aftershock zone is extensive and broad in the forward direction of the mainshock rupture but still constrained within the volume of high Vp/Vs within the slab crust. Our stress drop estimates are generally lower for M w 4-5 earthquakes located within the slab crust compared to those a few km deeper in the slab mantle. Combined, our results support a relatively low effective stress level in the vicinity of the megathrust in the lower portion of the seismogenic zone in southern Cascadia, likely due to elevated fluid pressures. Consequently, the ground motion in the onshore region above this low-stress seismogenic portion in southern Cascadia may not be as intense as that observed during great earthquakes in other subduction zones.

California↗