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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2020

North Carolina State climate report

Our scientific understanding of the climate system strongly supports the conclusion that North Carolina’s climate has changed in recent decades and the expectation that large changes—much larger than at any time in the state’s history—will occur if current trends in greenhouse gas concentrations continue. Even under a scenario where emissions peak around 2050 and decline thereafter, North Carolina will experience substantial changes in climate. The projected changes with the highest level of scientific confidence include increases in temperature, increases in summer absolute humidity, increases in sea level, and increases in extreme precipitation. It is also likely that there will be increases in the intensity of the strongest hurricanes. A full appreciation for past and future changes in North Carolina’s climate requires a global perspective. Earth’s climate has warmed substantially since the late 19th century, with most of that warming occurring in the last 50 years. This warming trend is clear from global temperature records and many other indicators, including rising global sea levels and rapid decreases in arctic sea ice cover. Scientists have very high confidence that this warming is largely due to human activities that have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Exhaustive research has examined other potential causes of this warming, and the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is the only plausible cause that is consistent with the observed data and the physics that governs the climate system.

North Carolina↗
USGS2006

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2022

Implementation of the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP Collection 1.0 annual land surface change product

The increasing availability of high-quality remote sensing data and advanced technologies have spurred land cover mapping to characterize land change from local to global scales. However, most land change datasets either span multiple decades at a local scale or cover limited time over a larger geographic extent. Here, we present a new land cover and land surface change dataset created by the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) program over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The LCMAP land cover change dataset consists of annual land cover and land cover change products over the period 1985-2017 at 30-meter resolution using Landsat and other ancillary data via the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. In this paper, we describe our novel approach to implement the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP product suite composed of five land cover and five land surface change related products. The LCMAP land cover products were validated using a collection of ~ 25,000 reference samples collected independently across CONUS. The overall agreement for all years of the LCMAP primary land cover product reached 82.5%. The LCMAP products are produced through the LCMAP Information Warehouse and Data Store (IW+DS) and Shared Mesos Cluster systems that can process, store, and deliver all datasets for public access. To our knowledge, this is the first set of published 30m annual land cover and land cover change datasets that span from the 1980s to the present for the United States. The LCMAP product suite provides useful information for land resource management and facilitates studies to improve the understanding of terrestrial ecosystems and the complex dynamics of the Earth system. The LCMAP system could be implemented to produce global land change products in the future.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2001

International collaboration: The cornerstone of satellite land remote sensing in the 21st century

Satellite land remotely sensed data are used by scientists and resource managers world-wide to study similar multidisciplinary earth science problems. Most of their information requirements can be met by a small number of satellite sensor types. Moderate-resolution resource satellites and low-resolution environmental satellites are the most prominent of these, and they are the focus of this paper. Building, launching, and operating satellite systems are very expensive endeavors. Consequently, nations should change the current pattern of independently launching and operating similar, largely redundant resource and environmental satellite systems in favor of true and full collaboration in developing, launching, operating, and sharing the data from such systems of the future. The past decade has seen encouraging signs of increasing international collaboration in earth remote sensing, but full collaboration has not yet been attempted. A general strategy to achieve such international collaboration is presented here, including discussion of potential obstacles, ideas for organizing and overseeing the long-term process toward collaboration, and short-term objectives whereby early successes critical to accomplishing long-term goals can be achieved.

Space Policy↗
USGS2026

Forecasting volcanic activity in Germany—A multi-criteria approach

Igneous activity, including shallow intrusions and volcanism, has the potential to disrupt underground critical infrastructure. Notably, future underground infrastructure projects like high-level radioactive waste repositories must be sited in areas of extremely low disruption probability by igneous activity. In Germany, according to the Repository Site Selection Act of 2017 (Standortauswahlgesetz, or StandAG), areas in which Quaternary volcanism is either present or future volcanic activity is expected within the next 1 million years (m.y.) must be excluded from the site selection process. Although the locations of regions with Quaternary volcanism are reasonably well known in Germany, forecasting potential igneous activity at intraplate volcanic fields is challenging, as many processes and their interactions control the spatial distribution of volcanic centers. Here, a semi-quantitative, multi-criteria approach is proposed for a regional evaluation of the relative potential of future igneous activity in Germany. A variety of geoscientific indicators are used, including seismic anomalies in Earth’s mantle, gravity data, tectonic activity, sutures, ground motion, earthquakes, mantle degassing centers, and geochronological data of volcanic rocks. The indicators describe the sequence of processes from potential melt generation in Earth’s mantle, through ascent and accumulation of melt within the lithosphere, to eruption at Earth’s surface. In total, 15 out of 30 proposed geoscientific indicators are selected and quantified using 20 total assigned parameters. Defined threshold values are used to spatially delimit relevant parameter properties to focus on areas with higher potential of future magmatic activity. To consider uncertainties of parameters and their underlying processes, which are usually more spatially extensive below ground, buffer zones are defined in which values of relevance decrease with increasing distance from the initial lateral shape of a parameter. Normalized parameters are combined into an index, whose spatial value distribution is used to differentiate the relative potential of future igneous activity (within the next 1 m.y.). The sensitivity of the results is shown by varying the weighting factors for the relevant parameters in country-wide index maps. Thereby, profiles illustrate the distribution of the resulting index values and respective index fractions of various parameters. Different index maps for the relative potential of future igneous activity are presented and can be used for hazard assessments.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2017

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗
USGS2011

The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol–cloud interactions, chemistry–climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future—for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth’s surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of the twentieth century warm in CM3 by 0.32°C relative to 1881–1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of 0.56° and 0.52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol–cloud interactions, and its warming by the late twentieth century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed 0.66°C but did not include aerosol–cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud–aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2017

Formation of Fe-Mn crusts within a continental margin environment

This study examines Fe-Mn crusts that form on seamounts along the California continental-margin (CCM), within the United States 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. The study area extends from approximately 30° to 38° North latitudes and from 117° to 126° West longitudes. The area of study is a tectonically active northeast Pacific plate boundary region and is also part of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre with currents dominated by the California Current System. Upwelling of nutrient-rich water results in high primary productivity that produces a pronounced oxygen minimum zone. Hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts forming along the CCM show distinct chemical and mineral compositions compared to open-ocean crusts. On average, CCM crusts contain more Fe relative to Mn than open-ocean Pacific crusts. The continental shelf and slope release both Fe and Mn under low-oxygen conditions. Silica is also enriched relative to Al compared to open-ocean crusts. This is due to the North Pacific silica plume and enrichment of Si along the path of deep-water circulation, resulting in Si enrichment in bottom and intermediate waters of the eastern Pacific. The CCM Fe-Mn crusts have a higher percentage of birnessite than open-ocean crusts, reflecting lower dissolved seawater oxygen that results from the intense coastal upwelling and proximity to zones of continental slope pore-water anoxia. Carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) is not present and CCM crusts do not show evidence of phosphatization, even in the older sections. The mineralogy indicates a suboxic environment under which birnessite forms, but in which pH is not high enough to facilitate CFA deposition. Growth rates of CCM crusts generally increase with increasing water depth, likely due to deep-water Fe sources mobilized from reduced shelf and slope sediments. Many elements of economic interest including Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, W, and Te have slightly or significantly lower concentrations in CCM crusts relative to crusts from the Pacific Prime Crust Zone and other open-ocean basins. However, concentrations of total rare earth elements and yttrium average only slightly lower contents and in the future may be a strategic resource for the U.S.

California↗
USGS2016

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2021

Applications of bistatic radar to volcano topography – A review of 10 years of TanDEM-X

The TanDEM-X satellite mission has revolutionized DEM generation from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar. In addition to the primary objective of generating a consistent digital elevation model with global coverage and unprecedented accuracy, the mission has acquired time series of topographic data over several volcanoes, providing an excellent opportunity to test the use of this innovative dataset for volcano monitoring and research. In this article, we review the utilization of the single-pass TanDEM-X data for studying various kinds of volcanic activity, such as basaltic lava flows, the formation and destruction of lava domes and related pyroclastic density currents, and subsurface magma withdrawal and intrusion. We then consider the uses of these data for hazard assessment and forecasting. Our goal is to highlight the importance of timely and repeated topographic information in volcanology, and to suggest the development of future spaceborne bistatic synthetic aperture radar satellite missions, such as ESA's Earth Explorer 10 candidate mission, “Harmony.”

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗
USGS2023

Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia

Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM) projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however, the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about 50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in terrestrial runoff.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS1985

Mission, goals, and authorities of the U.S. Geological Survey, June 1985

We live in a society which depends on natural resources. Our high standard of living requires use of the land, water, and mineral endowment of the Earth. In using these resources, we may affect our environment and alter our options for land and resource use in the future. How can we ensure an adequate supply of this natural wealth in the future? In what ways are we irreversibly altering our natural environment? How can we avoid undesirable or unacceptable side effects of man's use of the land and prevent or mitigate earth-related hazards? To respond to these and other similar questions, knowledge about the Earth, its structure, its resources, and its dynamics is essential.

Report↗
USGS1999

The "LARSE" Project - Working Toward a Safer Future for Los Angeles

The Los Angeles region is underlain by a network of active faults, including many that are deep and do not break the Earth's surface. These hidden faults include the previously unknown one responsible for the devastating January 1994 Northridge earthquake, the costliest quake in U.S. history. So that structures can be built or strengthened to withstand the quakes that are certain in the future, the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) is locating hidden earthquake hazards beneath the region to help scientists determine where the strongest shaking will occur.

California↗
USGS1984

Earth and water resources and hazards in Central America

Long-range economic development in Central America will depend in large part on production of indigenous mineral, energy, and water resources and on mitigation of the disastrous effects of geologic and hydrologic hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods. The region has six world-class metal mines at present as well as additional evidence of widespread mineralization. Systematic investigations using modern mineral exploration techniques should reveal more mineral deposits suitable for development. Widespread evidence of lignite and geothermal resources suggests that intensive studies could identify producible energy sources in most Central American countries. Water supply and water quality vary greatly from country to country. Local problems of ground- and surface-water availability and of contamination create a need for systematic programs to provide better hydrologic data, capital improvements, and management. Disastrous earthquakes have destroyed or severely damaged many cities in Central America. Volcanic eruptions, landslides, mudflows, and floods have devastated most of the Pacific side of Central America at one time or another. A regional approach to earthquake, volcano, and flood-risk analysis and monitoring, using modern technology and concepts, would provide the facilities and means for acquiring knowledge necessary to reduce future losses. All Central American countries need to strengthen institutions and programs dealing with earth and water resources and natural hazards. Some of these needs may be satisfied through existing or pending projects and technical and economic assistance from U.S. or other sources. The need for a comprehensive study of the natural resources of Central America and the requirements for their development is evident. The U.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative offers both an excellent opportunity for a regional approach to these pervasive problems and an opportunity for international cooperation.

Circular↗
USGS2015

The water-energy nexus: An earth science perspective

Water availability and use are closely connected with energy development and use. Water cannot be delivered to homes, businesses, and industries without energy, and most forms of energy development require large amounts of water. The United States faces two significant and sometimes competing challenges: to provide sustainable supplies of freshwater for humans and ecosystems and to ensure adequate sources of energy for future generations. This report reviews the complex ways in which water and energy are interconnected and describes the earth science data collection and research that can help the Nation address these important challenges. The earth sciences have been a cornerstone in developing our current understanding of the water-energy nexus. A full understanding of the nexus, however, is limited by uncertainty in our knowledge of fundamental issues, such as the quantity of freshwater that is available, the amount of water that is used in energy development, the effects that emerging energy development technologies have on water quality and quantity, and the amount of energy required to treat and deliver freshwater. Enhanced data collection and research can improve our understanding of these important issues and thereby lay the groundwork for informed resource management. Relevant earth science issues analyzed and discussed herein include freshwater availability; water use; ecosystems health; assessment of saline water resources; assessment of fossil-fuel, uranium, and geothermal resources; subsurface injection of wastewater and carbon dioxide and related induced seismicity; climate change and its effect on water availability and energy production; byproducts and waste streams of energy development; emerging energy-development technologies; and energy for water treatment and delivery.

Circular↗
USGS2009

Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

Synthesis and Assessment Product↗
USGS2021

Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Wildfire and landscape change

Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and bedrock. These changes typically lead to increased erosion through sheetwash, rilling, dry ravel, and increased mass movement in the form of floods, debris flow, rockfall, and landslides. These process changes bring about landform changes as hillslopes are lowered and stream channels aggrade or incise at increased rates. Furthermore, development of alluvial fans, debris fans, and talus cones are enhanced. The window of disturbance to the landscape caused by wildfire is typically on the order of 3–4 years, with some effects persisting up to 30 years.

Book chapter↗