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USGS2015

A functional model for characterizing long-distance movement behaviour

Advancements in wildlife telemetry techniques have made it possible to collect large data sets of highly accurate animal locations at a fine temporal resolution. These data sets have prompted the development of a number of statistical methodologies for modelling animal movement. Telemetry data sets are often collected for purposes other than fine-scale movement analysis. These data sets may differ substantially from those that are collected with technologies suitable for fine-scale movement modelling and may consist of locations that are irregular in time, are temporally coarse or have large measurement error. These data sets are time-consuming and costly to collect but may still provide valuable information about movement behaviour. We developed a Bayesian movement model that accounts for error from multiple data sources as well as movement behaviour at different temporal scales. The Bayesian framework allows us to calculate derived quantities that describe temporally varying movement behaviour, such as residence time, speed and persistence in direction. The model is flexible, easy to implement and computationally efficient. We apply this model to data from Colorado Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) and use derived quantities to identify changes in movement behaviour.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

Environmental tradeoffs of urban stream restoration in Fairfax County, Virginia

Regulatory mandates to improve water quality and stream health have driven substantial investment in stream restoration. Most projects aim to improve channel-floodplain connectivity, reduce sediment erosion, and enhance habitat for aquatic organisms, yet few include adequate pre- and post-restoration monitoring to assess outcomes. Since 2007, Fairfax County, Virginia, and the U.S. Geological Survey have partnered to monitor and evaluate water-quality conditions in Flatlick Branch. In 2018, a 1.72-km reach of stream above the monitoring station was restored using a Natural Channel Design approach. This study applied the Stream Functions Pyramid (SFP) framework to evaluate restoration tradeoffs. Post-restoration, watershed hydrology remained largely unchanged, but channel modifications increased flow capacity, reduced velocity, and further disconnected the channel from the floodplain. Nutrient and sediment reductions exceeded expected amounts, but the removal of over 20 % of riparian tree canopy increased physicochemical variability and the frequency and magnitude of water temperature heatwaves. Post-restoration, state standards for low dissolved oxygen and elevated pH were exceeded 2.5 and 7.5 times more often, respectively. Gross primary production and ecosystem respiration increased and organic matter sources supporting metabolism shifted from allochthonous to autochthonous. Trends in several benthic macroinvertebrate metrics, which were improving prior to construction, have since plateaued or declined, and the fish assemblage shifted from a native minnow dominated community to non-native, warmwater tolerant taxa. This study highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of stream restoration and benefits of using the SFP to understand the consequences and possible tradeoffs of different ecosystem management decisions.

Virginia↗

USGS2018

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore

Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator–prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear ( Ursus americanus ) predation of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves). During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined. As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per‐capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type‐I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves. Our results reveal that generalist predators can dynamically adjust their foraging tactics over short time‐scales in response to changing prey abundance and vulnerability. Further, they demonstrate the utility of integrating temporal dynamics of prey availability into investigations of predator–prey interactions, and move towards a mechanistic understanding of the dynamic foraging tactics of a large omnivore.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2024

High inter-population connectivity and occasional gene flow between subspecies improves recovery potential for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo

Increasingly, genomic data are being used to supplement field-based ecological studies to help evaluate recovery status and trends in endangered species. We collected genomic data to address two related questions regarding the Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii ), an endangered migratory songbird restricted to southern California riparian habitat for breeding. First, we sought to delineate the range limits and potential overlap between Least Bell’s Vireo and its sister subspecies, the Arizona Bell’s Vireo, by analyzing samples from the deserts of eastern California, southwestern Nevada, Utah and Arizona. Second, we evaluated genetic structure among Least Bell’s Vireo populations in coastal California and estimated effective population size. Clustering analyses based on 10,571 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 317 samples supported two major groups that aligned closely to the previously defined subspecies ranges. The first cluster included birds in the Central Valley, all coastal drainages, and westernmost deserts of California, with no further sub-structuring among coastal drainages. Almost all birds from the Amargosa River in eastern California and eastward assigned to the second cluster; however, low levels of gene flow were detected across the subspecies groups, with greater rates of gene flow from Arizona Bell’s Vireo to Least Bell’s Vireo than the reverse. Admixed individuals occurred in the California deserts; and although smaller than coastal populations, desert populations may be important for maintaining and replenishing genetic diversity and facilitating the movement of potentially adaptive genes between subspecies. Within Least Bell’s Vireo, local populations in coastal drainages comprised a single genetic population, with some evidence of close relatives distributed across drainages, suggesting these could function as a well-connected metapopulation. These results are consistent with previous Least Bell’s Vireo banding studies that reported high rates of dispersal among drainages. Effective population size for both subspecies was high, suggesting that adaptive potential has been maintained despite previous declines.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2020

Optimal spatial prioritization of control resources for elimination of invasive species under demographic uncertainty

Populations of invasive species often spread heterogeneously across a landscape, consisting of local populations that cluster in space but are connected by dispersal. A fundamental dilemma for invasive species control is how to optimally allocate limited fiscal resources across local populations. Theoretical work based on perfect knowledge of demographic connectivity suggests that targeting local populations from which migrants originate (sources) can be optimal. However, demographic processes such as abundance and dispersal can be highly uncertain, and the relationship between local population density and damage costs (damage function) is rarely known. We used a metapopulation model to understand how budget and uncertainty in abundance, connectivity, and the damage function, together impact return on investment (ROI) for optimal control strategies. Budget, observational uncertainty, and the damage function had strong effects on the optimal resource allocation strategy. Uncertainty in dispersal probability was the least important determinant of ROI. The damage function determined which resource prioritization strategy was optimal when connectivity was symmetric but not when it was asymmetric. When connectivity was asymmetric, prioritizing source populations had a higher ROI than allocating effort equally across local populations, regardless of the damage function, but uncertainty in connectivity structure and abundance reduced ROI of the optimal prioritization strategy by 57% on average depending on the control budget. With low budgets (monthly removal rate of 6.7% of population), there was little advantage to prioritizing resources, especially when connectivity was high or symmetric, and observational uncertainty had only minor effects on ROI. Allotting funding for improved monitoring appeared to be most important when budgets were moderate (monthly removal of 13–20% of the population). Our result showed that multiple sources of observational uncertainty should be considered concurrently for optimizing ROI. Accurate estimates of connectivity direction and abundance were more important than accurate estimates of dispersal rates. Developing cost-effective surveillance methods to reduce observational uncertainties, and quantitative frameworks for determining how resources should be spatially apportioned to multiple monitoring and control activities are important and challenging future directions for optimizing ROI for invasive species control programs.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Current state of knowledge on biological effects from contaminants on arctic wildlife and fish

Since the last Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) effort to review biological effects of the exposure to organohalogen compounds (OHCs) in Arctic biota, there has been a considerable number of new Arctic effect studies. Here, we provide an update on the state of the knowledge of OHC, and also include mercury, exposure and/or associated effects in key Arctic marine and terrestrial mammal and bird species as well as in fish by reviewing the literature published since the last AMAP assessment in 2010. We aimed at updating the knowledge of how single but also combined health effects are or can be associated to the exposure to single compounds or mixtures of OHCs. We also focussed on assessing both potential individual as well as population health impacts using population-specific exposure data post 2000. We have identified quantifiable effects on vitamin metabolism, immune functioning, thyroid and steroid hormone balances, oxidative stress, tissue pathology, and reproduction. As with the previous assessment, a wealth of documentation is available for biological effects in marine mammals and seabirds, and sentinel species such as the sledge dog and Arctic fox, but information for terrestrial vertebrates and fish remain scarce. While hormones and vitamins are thoroughly studied, oxidative stress, immunotoxic and reproductive effects need further investigation. Depending on the species and population, some OHCs and mercury tissue contaminant burdens post 2000 were observed to be high enough to exceed putative risk threshold levels that have been previously estimated for non-target species or populations outside the Arctic. In this assessment, we made use of risk quotient calculations to summarize the cumulative effects of different OHC classes and mercury for which critical body burdens can be estimated for wildlife across the Arctic. As our ultimate goal is to better predict or estimate the effects of OHCs and mercury in Arctic wildlife at the individual, population and ecosystem level, there remain numerous knowledge gaps on the biological effects of exposure in Arctic biota. These knowledge gaps include the establishment of concentration thresholds for individual compounds as well as for realistic cocktail mixtures that in fact indicate biologically relevant, and not statistically determined, health effects for specific species and subpopulations. Finally, we provide future perspectives on understanding Arctic wildlife health using new in vivo, in vitro, and in silico techniques, and provide case studies on multiple stressors to show that future assessments would benefit from significant efforts to integrate human health, wildlife ecology and retrospective and forecasting aspects into assessing the biological effects of OHC and mercury exposure in Arctic wildlife and fish.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Improving Landsat predictions of rangeland fractional cover with multitask learning and uncertainty

Operational satellite remote sensing products are transforming rangeland management and science. Advancements in computation, data storage and processing have removed barriers that previously blocked or hindered the development and use of remote sensing products. When combined with local data and knowledge, remote sensing products can inform decision‐making at multiple scales. We used temporal convolutional networks to produce a fractional cover product that spans western United States rangelands. We trained the model with 52,012 on‐the‐ground vegetation plots to simultaneously predict fractional cover for annual forbs and grasses, perennial forbs and grasses, shrubs, trees, litter and bare ground. To assist interpretation and to provide a measure of prediction confidence, we also produced spatiotemporal‐explicit, pixel‐level estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the model with 5,780 on‐the‐ground vegetation plots removed from the training data. Model evaluation averaged 6.3% mean absolute error and 9.6% root mean squared error. Evaluation with additional datasets that were not part of the training dataset, and that varied in geographic range, method of collection, scope and size, revealed similar metrics. Model performance increased across all functional groups compared to the previously produced fractional product. The advancements achieved with the new rangeland fractional cover product expand the management toolbox with improved predictions of fractional cover and pixel‐level uncertainty. The new product is available on the Rangeland Analysis Platform (https://rangelands.app/), an interactive web application that tracks rangeland vegetation through time. This product is intended to be used alongside local on‐the‐ground data, expert knowledge, land use history, scientific literature and other sources of information when making interpretations. When being used to inform decision‐making, remotely sensed products should be evaluated and utilized according to the context of the decision and not be used in isolation.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Fish assemblage and functional trait responses to small-dam removal

Dams are one of the greatest threats to freshwater biodiversity and efforts to remove dams to restore riverine systems are increasing. However, dam-removal studies have primarily focused on taxonomic responses to large dam removals with little work on the functional trait responses of fish to small-dam removals; such a focus limits the application of results in regions with different taxonomic compositions. We explored taxonomic and functional trait responses of fish assemblages to two small-dam removals over 10 years using a Multiple Before After Control Impact design at a dammed and an undammed river. Eight life-history traits were used to calculate functional diversity (RaoQ) and determine the position of each fish species within a multivariate life-history space relative to three life-history strategy endpoints: opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium. The distance of each species relative to these endpoints was used to calculate community weighted means (CWM), allowing us to examine the shift in life-history strategy of a given assemblage after dam removal. Based on life-history theory, we predicted a decrease in the CWM of equilibrium strategists and an increase in the CWM opportunistic strategists after dam removal. For the dammed river, we observed changes in assemblage structure at both the control and impact sites driven primarily by shifts from a lentic to lotic assemblage, with the most apparent change occurring in the formerly impounded sites. These changes tended to occur within 1 year, suggesting rapid colonization by lotic species after habitat change. By contrast, no change in assemblage structure was found for the undammed river, suggesting that dam removal was the primary driver of the shifts in assemblage structure observed in the dammed river. We found no change in the CWM of periodic strategists or RaoQ of all life-history traits at any site after dam removal. Based on CWM, life-history strategies shifted in response to dam removal at impounded sites where equilibrium strategists decreased and opportunistic strategists tended to increase after the impounded sites changed from a stable lentic environment to an unstable lotic environment, supporting predictions made by life-history theory. Our results suggest that small-dam removal may provide ecological benefits by restoring fish assemblages to a more natural riverine state and reversing the negative effects of dam construction on the ecosystem. We demonstrate that combining both trait-based and taxonomic approaches can improve our ecological understanding of the impacts of dam removal on fish assemblages and provide relevant data for local management.

South Carolina↗

USGS2003

Fire and grazing impacts on plant diversity and alien plant invasions in the southern Sierra Nevada

Patterns of native and alien plant diversity in response to disturbance were examined along an elevational gradient in blue oak savanna, chaparral, and coniferous forests. Total species richness, alien species richness, and alien cover declined with elevation, at scales from 1 to 1000 m 2 . We found no support for the hypothesis that community diversity inhibits alien invasion. At the 1-m 2 point scale, where we would expect competitive interactions between the largely herbaceous flora to be most intense, alien species richness as well as alien cover increased with increasing native species richness in all communities. This suggests that aliens are limited not by the number of native competitors, but by resources that affect establishment of both natives and aliens. Blue oak savannas were heavily dominated by alien species and consistently had more alien than native species at the 1-m 2 scale. All of these aliens are annuals, and it is widely thought that they have displaced native bunchgrasses. If true, this means that aliens have greatly increased species richness. Alternatively, there is a rich regional flora of native annual forbs that could have dominated these grasslands prior to displacement by alien grasses. On our sites, livestock grazing increased the number of alien species and alien cover only slightly over that of sites free of livestock grazing for more than a century, indicating some level of permanency to this invasion. In chaparral, both diversity and aliens increased markedly several years after fire. Invasive species are rare in undisturbed shrublands, and alien propagules fail to survive the natural crown fires in these ecosystems. Thus, aliens necessarily must colonize after fire and, as a consequence, time since fire is an important determinant of invasive presence. Blue oak savannas are an important propagule source for alien species because they maintain permanent populations of all alien species encountered in postfire chaparral, and because the vegetation mosaic in this region places them in proximity to chaparral. The speed at which alien propagules reach a burned site and the speed at which the shrublands return to their former closed-canopy condition determine alien invasion. Frequent burning of this vegetation alters the balance in favor of alien invasion. In the higher-elevation coniferous forests, species diversity was a function of fire severity and time since fire. High-intensity fires create gaps that decrease canopy coverage and increase light levels and nutrients for an ephemeral successional flora. Few species have persistent seed banks, so the time since fire is an important determinant of colonization success. There was a highly significant interaction between fire severity and time since fire for understory cover, species richness, and alien richness and cover. Understory was sparse in the first year after fire, particularly in low-severity burns, and increased substantially several years after fire, particularly on high-severity burns. Both fire severity and time since fire affected alien species richness and dominance. Coniferous forests had about one-third as many alien species as the foothill oak savannas, and fewer than half of the species were shared between these communities. Unburned coniferous forests were largely free of alien species, whereas some burned sites had a significant alien presence, which presents a challenge for fire restoration of these forests.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Science information to support Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis (EA) was commissioned by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to develop a foundation of understanding of how pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) population dynamics are linked to management actions in the Missouri River. The EA consists of several steps: (1) development of comprehensive, conceptual ecological models illustrating pallid sturgeon population dynamics and links to management actions and other drivers; (2) compilation and assessment of available scientific literature, databases, and models; (3) development of predictive, quantitative models to explore the system dynamics and population responses to management actions; and (4) analysis and assessment of effects of system operations and actions on species’ habitats and populations. This report addresses the second objective, compilation and assessment of relevant information. Scientific information on pallid sturgeon and its environment has grown substantially during the last decade. Presently available (2015) information indicates that stocked sturgeon are surviving and growing, and that wild and hatchery sturgeon are spawning in the wild. However, natural recruitment to age-1 and older has not been detected since systematic sampling began in 2005. Population models indicate the sensitivity of population growth to certain demographic variables, in particular early-life stage survival and perhaps adult fecundity. This report documents the existing population models for the pallid sturgeon, and the substantial quantities of information developed through the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP), the Habitat Assessment and Monitoring Program (HAMP), the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project (CSRP), range-wide genetics databases, and related research studies. The reference database compiled for the EA consists of over 190 peer-reviewed documents specifically related to pallid sturgeon and over 12,000 references on the Missouri River system and related species. Notwithstanding the large quantity of information available, the EA faces challenges in synthesizing the information into useful, quantitative models. In particular, critical demographic parameters for population models remain uncertain and the functional relationships between the two main categories of physical management action—changes in flow regime and reengineering channel form—and pallid sturgeon survival responses are obscure. In addition, there is an overarching uncertainty about how physical management actions interact with propagation management actions in view of evolving understanding of genetic structuring of the pallid sturgeon population. Synthesis efforts are also challenged by the fragmentation of information sources among projects and agencies; one objective of this report is to facilitate future assessments by providing documentation of what information is available and where.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North D↗

USGS2017

A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2011

Spatial scaling of core and dominant forest cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois River floodplains, USA

Different organisms respond to spatial structure in different terms and across different spatial scales. As a consequence, efforts to reverse habitat loss and fragmentation through strategic habitat restoration ought to account for the different habitat density and scale requirements of various taxonomic groups. Here, we estimated the local density of floodplain forest surrounding each of ~20 million 10-m forested pixels of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois River floodplains by using moving windows of multiple sizes (1–100 ha). We further identified forest pixels that met two local density thresholds: ‘core’ forest pixels were nested in a 100% (unfragmented) forested window and ‘dominant’ forest pixels were those nested in a >60% forested window. Finally, we fit two scaling functions to declines in the proportion of forest cover meeting these criteria with increasing window length for 107 management-relevant focal areas: a power function (i.e. self-similar, fractal-like scaling) and an exponential decay function (fractal dimension depends on scale). The exponential decay function consistently explained more variation in changes to the proportion of forest meeting both the ‘core’ and ‘dominant’ criteria with increasing window length than did the power function, suggesting that elevation, soil type, hydrology, and human land use constrain these forest types to a limited range of scales. To examine these scales, we transformed the decay constants to measures of the distance at which the probability of forest meeting the ‘core’ and ‘dominant’ criteria was cut in half ( S 1/2 , m). S 1/2 for core forest was typically between ~55 and ~95 m depending on location along the river, indicating that core forest cover is restricted to extremely fine scales. In contrast, half of all dominant forest cover was lost at scales that were typically between ~525 and 750 m, but S 1/2 was as long as 1,800 m. S 1/2 is a simple measure that (1) condenses information derived from multi-scale analyses, (2) allows for comparisons of the amount of forest habitat available to species with different habitat density and scale requirements, and (3) can be used as an index of the spatial continuity of habitat types that do not scale fractally.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

Incorporating data sets with multiple sources of uncertainty in integrated species distribution models

Data integration methods aim to improve species distribution estimates by incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty across datasets. Two major sources of uncertainty are: (1) variation in sampling effort across space and within datasets, and (2) variation in reliability associated with data collection protocols or timing among datasets. Our goal was to evaluate how different approaches to address these uncertainties influence predictive performance of integrated models. We modeled distributions of four bird species using three datasets that differed in sampling design. We examined three strategies to reduce uncertainty: (1) filtering data, (2) incorporating functions that account for uncertainty in observation models, and (3) varying how datasets are integrated into a single estimate. We first examine methods to account for variable effort in observations, focusing on both spatial differences in sampling intensity and effort given to a single observation record. We then examine approaches to account for data sets with differing reliability. Sampling effort was best addressed through conservative filtering, including spatial thinning and excluding observations with highly variable effort. Next, we considered how to account for potential false positive detections—due to either misidentification or changes in distributions. We found that treating less reliable data as a covariate, an approach previously suggested for data integration that can greatly speed up model fitting, performed well. Other effective approaches included directly modeling false positive rates and complete exclusion of less reliable data sets. Our results provide insights into best practices in integrated modeling for handling uncertainty in integrated models. We demonstrate the flexible options available when using integrated models to address uncertainty.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

If you build it and they come, will they stay? Maturation of constructed fish spawning reefs in the St. Clair-Detroit River System

Constructed rock reefs have been used to remediate spawning habitat for Lake Sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) and other lithophilic spawning fishes in the St. Clair-Detroit River System, North America. Early projects used a cross-channel design and species-specific metrics (e.g., proximity to historical spawning locations) to guide reef placement. However, the Middle Channel Reefs and portions of other early projects were compromised by fine sediment accumulation. Therefore, geomorphological criteria were considered in siting reefs constructed after 2013 to avoid sediment sources and improve the likelihood of successful reef function. To evaluate the effectiveness of the revised placement process, we quantified physical maturation of constructed reefs using annual side-scan and down-looking sonar surveys beginning in 2014 and underwater video surveys beginning in 2015. Reef areas and hardness were measured from sonar surveys and underwater video was used to quantify surficial sediment composition. Size and hardness of reefs developed using geomorphological criteria decreased with time, but at rates slower than what was observed at the Middle Channel Reefs. Sediment composition of the reefs remained similar through 2017 and prevalence of reef rock was high, except at Hart's Light Reef, where dreissenid mussel shells composed 32% of the surficial substrate by age three. However, accumulation of fine sediments was documented at all reefs in 2018. Despite using geomorphic criteria to identify areas most suitable for reef construction, reef sediment composition has changed, and future reef restoration projects could benefit by incorporating methods for maintenance, in addition to using geomorphic criteria, to identify restoration sites.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2017

Impacts of mesquite distribution on seasonal space use of lesser prairie-chickens

Loss of native grasslands by anthropogenic disturbances has reduced availability and connectivity of habitat for many grassland species. A primary threat to contiguous grasslands is the encroachment of woody vegetation, which is spurred by disturbances that take on many forms from energy development, fire suppression, and grazing. These disturbances are exacerbated by natural- and human-driven cycles of changes in climate punctuated by drought and desertification conditions. Encroachment of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) into the prairies of southeastern New Mexico has potentially limited habitat for numerous grassland species, including lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) . To determine the magnitude of impacts of distribution of mesquite and how lesser prairie-chickens respond to mesquite presence on the landscape in southeastern New Mexico, we evaluated seasonal space use of lesser prairie-chickens in the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. We derived several remotely sensed spatial metrics to characterize the distribution of mesquite. We then used these data to create population-level resource utilization functions and predict intensity of use of lesser prairie-chickens across our study area. Home ranges were smaller in the breeding season compared with the nonbreeding season; however, habitat use was similar across seasons. During both seasons, lesser prairie-chickens used areas closer to leks and largely avoided areas with mesquite. Relative to the breeding season, during the nonbreeding season habitat use suggested a marginal increase in mesquite within areas of low intensity of use, yet aversion to mesquite was strong in areas of medium to high intensity of use. To our knowledge, our study is the first to demonstrate a negative behavioral response by lesser prairie-chickens to woody encroachment in native grasslands. To mitigate one of the possible limiting factors for lesser prairie-chickens, we suggest future conservation strategies be employed by land managersto reduce mesquite abundance in the southern portion of their current range.

New Mexico↗

USGS2002

Landscape patterns as habitat predictors: Building and testing models for cavity-nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains of Utah, USA

The ability to predict species occurrences quickly is often crucial for managers and conservation biologists with limited time and funds. We used measured associations with landscape patterns to build accurate predictive habitat models that were quickly and easily applied (i.e., required no additional data collection in the field to make predictions). We used classification trees (a nonparametric alternative to discriminant function analysis, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models) to model nesting habitat of red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), northern flickers (Colaptes auratus), tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and mountain chickadees (Parus gambeli) in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, USA. We then tested the predictive capability of the models with independent data collected in the field the following year. The models built for the northern flicker, red-naped sapsucker, and tree swallow were relatively accurate (84%, 80%, and 75% nests correctly classified, respectively) compared to the models for the mountain chickadee (50% nests correctly classified). All four models were more selective than a null model that predicted habitat based solely on a gross association with aspen forests. We conclude that associations with landscape patterns can be used to build relatively accurate, easy to use, predictive models for some species. Our results stress, however, that both selecting the proper scale at which to assess landscape associations and empirically testing the models derived from those associations are crucial for building useful predictive models.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2017

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Ecology↗

USGS2012

Ecosystem engineering varies spatially: a test of the vegetation modification paradigm for prairie dogs

Colonial, burrowing herbivores can be engineers of grassland and shrubland ecosystems worldwide. Spatial variation in landscapes suggests caution when extrapolating single-place studies of single species, but lack of data and the need to generalize often leads to ‘model system’ thinking and application of results beyond appropriate statistical inference. Generalizations about the engineering effects of prairie dogs ( Cynomys sp.) developed largely from intensive study at a single complex of black-tailed prairie dogs C. ludovicianus in northern mixed prairie, but have been extrapolated to other ecoregions and prairie dog species in North America, and other colonial, burrowing herbivores. We tested the paradigm that prairie dogs decrease vegetation volume and the cover of grasses and tall shrubs, and increase bare ground and forb cover. We sampled vegetation on and off 279 colonies at 13 complexes of 3 prairie dog species widely distributed across 5 ecoregions in North America. The paradigm was generally supported at 7 black-tailed prairie dog complexes in northern mixed prairie, where vegetation volume, grass cover, and tall shrub cover were lower, and bare ground and forb cover were higher, on colonies than at paired off-colony sites. Outside the northern mixed prairie, all 3 prairie dog species consistently reduced vegetation volume, but their effects on cover of plant functional groups varied with prairie dog species and the grazing tolerance of dominant perennial grasses. White-tailed prairie dogs C. leucurus in sagebrush steppe did not reduce shrub cover, whereas black-tailed prairie dogs suppressed shrub cover at all complexes with tall shrubs in the surrounding habitat matrix. Black-tailed prairie dogs in shortgrass steppe and Gunnison's prairie dogs C. gunnisoni in Colorado Plateau grassland both had relatively minor effects on grass cover, which may reflect the dominance of grazing-tolerant shortgrasses at both complexes. Variation in modification of vegetation structure may be understood in terms of the responses of different dominant perennial grasses to intense defoliation and differences in foraging behavior among prairie dog species. Spatial variation in the engineering role of prairie dogs suggests spatial variation in their keystone role, and spatial variation in the roles of other ecosystem engineers. Thus, ecosystem engineering can have a spatial component not evident from single-place studies.

Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗