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At least 1,603 records · Page 89Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Emerging dominance of Paratrochammina simplissima (Cushman and McCulloch) in the northern Gulf of Mexico following hydrologic and geomorphic changes

Grand Bay estuary in coastal Mississippi and Alabama (USA) has undergone significant geomorphic changes over the last few centuries as a result of anthropogenic (bridge, road, and hardened shoreline construction) and climatic (extreme storm events) processes, which reduce freshwater input, sediment supply, and degrade barrier islands. To investigate how geomorphic changes may have altered the Grand Bay estuary, sediment push cores were collected for foraminiferal, sedimentological (organic matter content, grain-size distribution), and radiochemical ( 210 Pb, 137 Cs, and 7 Be) analyses. Clay normalized geochronologies were determined with a constant rate of supply model. Based on downcore age-depth relationships, select intervals were analyzed for foraminifera in order to assess alterations in the microfossil assemblage in Grand Bay estuary over the 20th Century. All estuarine samples were low diversity (species richness: 1–10; Fisher's alpha diversity: 0.14–1.75); two species, Ammotium salsum and Paratrochammina simplissima, dominated all downcore assemblages. Paratrochammina simplissima increased in abundance up-core from a minor subsidiary species (median = 4.7% at 19–20 cm) to dominant or co-dominant with A. salsum over the 20th and early 21st Centuries in six cores, comprising up to 60.7% of a single sample. The emerging dominance of P. simplissima since ~1950 along with the reduction of brackish-estuarine taxa and introduction of calcareous species signifies increased salinity and less marsh organic matter preserved in the sediments. While seasonal dissolution limits our ability to chronologically constrain the introduction of calcareous species, P. simplissima , a species not referenced in taxonomic data from the northern Gulf of Mexico until 2012, is well constrained, following its first occurrence in the 1930s.

Mississippi↗
USGS2022

Biomass allocation of tidal freshwater marsh species in response to natural and manipulated hydroperiod in coastal deltaic floodplains

Deltaic floodplains are highly vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) depending on the sediment supply from river channels that provides elevation capital as adaptation mechanism. In river channels where levees have restricted sediment supply to coastal deltaic floodplains, river sediment diversions have been proposed as a restoration strategy to increase elevation allowing for marshes to establish and cope with RSLR. The response of coastal wetlands to surface elevation has been well-defined for estuarine marshes, but models for coastal deltaic floodplain marshes have not been resolved. Here we coupled field observations from biomass plots and a mesocosm experiment (‘marsh organ’) with remote sensing techniques to assess biomass allocation of tidal freshwater marsh species in response to gradients in hydroperiod in Wax Lake Delta (WLD), coastal Louisiana, U.S.A.. We found that, contrary to salt-tolerant species, Colocasia esculenta aboveground biomass (AGB) is strongly positively correlated with percent inundated time (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.001), increasing from (mean ± 1SE) 186 ± 69 g/m2 in the supratidal zone to 1422 ± 148 g/m2 beyond its natural occurrence range in the lower intertidal zone. Belowground biomass consistently exceeded AGB at 2363 ± 294 g/m2 on average across elevation treatments. We also found that C. esculenta expanded its surface coverage area by 31% in five years consistent with the growth and emergence of WLD's subaqueous platforms, reflecting this species ability to cope with higher inundation time. In contrast to earlier studies conducted in brackish and saline settings, where longer hydroperiods had negative effects on biomass accumulation, our data suggest that tidal freshwater marshes can cope with longer hydroperiods caused by river sediment diversions.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗
USGS2023

Estuarine salinity extremes: Using the Coastal Salinity Index to quantify the role of droughts, floods, hurricanes, and freshwater flow alteration

In the face of accelerating climate change, advancing understanding of how extreme climatic events influence estuarine salinities can help to inform resource management. Extreme salinities driven by droughts, hurricanes, floods, and freshwater flow alterations can lead to ecological transformations in estuarine ecosystems. Here, we applied the Coastal Salinity Index (CSI; Conrads and Darby 2017) to 22 years (1998–2020) of salinity data in a Louisiana estuary (Barataria Estuary, USA) to elucidate the impacts of extreme events on estuarine salinities. The CSI is an index to quantify salinity patterns at a specific location through long-term averages and deviations from historical average conditions. We calculated and compared CSI values for four stations distributed along an estuarine salinity gradient. We identified 10 events between 1998 and 2020 that produced extreme salinities, including two droughts, four hurricanes, three floods, and one freshwater diversion. The droughts of 2000 and 2006 caused surface water salinities to increase substantially throughout the estuary. The effects of hurricanes were highly variable, with some storms leading to elevated salinities throughout the entire estuary (e.g., Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005), whereas other storms led to elevated salinities for some but not all stations (e.g., Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 or Hurricane Isaac in 2012). The opening of a freshwater river diversion in 2010 contributed to fresher conditions throughout the estuary and appeared to reduce or eliminate the increases in salinity that normally occur during the summer, although these effects were short-lived. Mississippi River floods in 2008, 2011, and 2019 reduced salinities throughout the estuary, but the effects were most pronounced in the lower estuary compared to the upper estuary. Collectively, our results advance understanding of the influence of extreme events on estuarine salinity regimes. Our analyses also highlight the value of the CSI for identifying periods with extreme salinities (i.e., extreme high or low salinities) via calculations that place salinity levels within and across estuaries within a historical context.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Study region Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes. Study focus Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent. New hydrological insights for the region Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗
USGS2017

Soil microbial community composition is correlated to soil carbon processing along a boreal wetland formation gradient

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles. Microbial communities play an integral role in soil biogeochemical cycles; knowledge about microbial composition helps provide a mechanistic understanding of these ecosystem-level phenomena. Next generation sequencing approaches were used to investigate changes in microbial functional groups during ecosystem development, in response to climate change, in northern boreal wetlands. A gradient of wetlands that developed following permafrost degradation was used to characterize changes in the soil microbial communities that mediate C cycling: a bog representing an “undisturbed” system with intact permafrost, and a younger bog and an older bog that formed following the disturbance of permafrost thaw. Reference 16S rRNA databases and several diversity indices were used to assess structural differences among these communities, to assess relationships between soil microbial community composition and various environmental variables including redox potential and pH. Rates of potential CO2 and CH4 gas production were quantified to correlate sequence data with gas flux. The abundance of organic C degraders was highest in the youngest bog, suggesting higher rates of microbial processes, including potential CH4 production. In addition, alpha diversity was also highest in the youngest bog, which seemed to be related to a more neutral pH and a lower redox potential. These results could potentially be driven by increased niche differentiation in anaerobic soils. These results suggest that ecosystem structure, which was largely driven by changes in edaphic and plant community characteristics between the “undisturbed” permafrost bog and the two bogs formed following permafrost thaw, strongly influenced microbial function.

European Journal of Soil Biology↗
USGS2019

A synthesis of ecosystem management strategies for forests in the face of chronic N deposition

The relative importance of nitrogen (N) deposition as a stressor to global forests is likely to increase in the future, as N deposition increases in Asia and Africa, and as sulfur declines more than nitrogen in Europe, the US, and Canada. Even so, it appears that decreased N deposition may not be sufficient to induce recovery, suggesting that management interventions may be necessary to promote recovery over timescales desired by decision makers. Here we report a meta-analysis of the effectiveness of four remediation approaches (prescribed burning, thinning, liming, carbon addition) on three recovery responses from N deposition (decreased soil N availability, increased soil alkalinity, increased plant biodiversity), focusing on literature from North America. We found 72 publications (with 2156 responses) from the Web of Science that focused on one of these treatments but only 29 (with 408 responses) reported results appropriate for meta-analysis (others examined other end points or did not report sufficient data). We found that carbon addition was the only treatment that decreased N availability (effect size: -1.6 to -1.8), while liming, thinning, and burning all tended to increase N availability (effect sizes: +0.2 to +1.1). Only liming had a significant effect on soil alkalinity (+10% to 80% across metrics). Only prescribed burning and thinning affected plant diversity, but with opposing effects across metrics (i.e. increased richness, decreased Shannon or Simpson diversity) but effects were often statistically marginal. Thus, it appears that no single treatment will be effective in promoting recovery from N deposition for all three responses of interest, and combinations of treatments should be explored (esp. liming in combination with other treatments). These conclusions are based on the limited published data available, underscoring the need for more studies in forested areas and more consistent reporting across studies.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2019

Timber harvest alters mercury bioaccumulation and food web structure in headwater streams

Timber harvest has many effects on aquatic ecosystems, including changes in hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes that can influence mercury (Hg) cycling. Although timber harvest’s influence on aqueous Hg transformation and transport are well studied, the effects on Hg bioaccumulation are not. We evaluated Hg bioaccumulation, biomagnification, and food web structure in 10 paired catchments that were either clear-cut in their entirety, clear-cut except for an 8-m wide riparian buffer, or left unharvested. Average mercury concentrations in aquatic biota from clear-cut catchments were 50% higher than in reference catchments and 165% higher than in catchments with a riparian buffer. Mercury concentrations in aquatic invertebrates and salamanders were not correlated with aqueous THg or MeHg concentrations, but rather treatment effects appeared to correspond with differences in the utilization of terrestrial and aquatic basal resources in the stream food webs. Carbon and nitrogen isotope data suggest that a diminished shredder niche in the clear-cut catchments contributed to lower basal resource diversity compared with the reference of buffered treatments, and that elevated Hg concentrations in the clear-cut catchments reflect an increased reliance on aquatic resources in clear-cut catchments. In contrast, catchments with riparian buffers had higher basal resource diversity than the reference catchments, indicative of more balanced utilization of terrestrial and aquatic resources. Further, following timber harvest THg concentrations in riparian songbirds were elevated, suggesting an influence of timber harvest on Hg export to riparian food webs. These data, coupled with comparisons of individual feeding guilds, indicate that changes in organic matter sources and associated effects on stream food web structure are important mechanisms by which timber harvest modifies Hg bioaccumulation in headwater streams and riparian consumers.

Oregon↗
USGS2020

Multiple conceptualizations of nature are key to inclusivity and legitimacy in global environmental governance

Despite increasing scientific understanding of the global environmental crisis, we struggle to adopt the policies and practices science suggests we should. One of the reasons for this is the general absence of inclusive engagement and dialogue among a wide range of actors with distinct interactions with nature. Furthermore, there is little consideration of the role of language in understanding and shaping human-nature relations across different worldviews and cultures. In this paper, we propose that engagement and dialogue between the different actors involved in, or affected by, efforts to address the global environmental crisis can be strengthened by being mindful of the breadth of the diverse human-nature relations found around the globe. Examininge diverse conceptualizations of “nature” in more than 60 languages, we find that concpetualisaitions of nature fall into three broad clusters: inclusive conceptualizations where humans are viewed as an integral component of nature; non-inclusive conceptualizations where humans are separate from nature; and deifying conceptualizations where nature is understood and experienced within a spiritual dimension. Considering and respecting this rich repertoire for describing, thinking about and relating to nature can help us articulating global environmental governance in ways that resonate across cultures and worldviews. This repertoire also provides a resource we can draw on when defining policies, sustainability scenarios and practical interventions for the future thus offering opportunities for finding solutions to global environmental challenges, such as illustrated by the different laws granting legal personality to nature adopted around the world.

Environmental Science and Policy↗
USGS2011

Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2020

Life history structure of westslope cutthroat trout: Inferences from otolith microchemistry

Life history diversity is important for population stability and is dependent on connectivity to habitat that supports all life stages and life history strategies for a species. Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi (WCT) exhibit plasticity in life history strategies in response to environmental variability, but fisheries managers have been challenged with evaluating the life history structure of WCT populations. The goals of this research were to use strontium isotopes (i.e., 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) derived from ambient water and sagittal otoliths to assess spatial variability and describe the life history structure of WCT. Water samples ( n = 49) and WCT ( n = 571) sagittal otoliths were collected throughout the Coeur d’Alene Lake basin in Idaho and analyzed for Sr isotopes. Model-based discriminant function analysis was used to assign WCT to natal tributaries and to infer maternal origins. Life history structure was inferred from maternal signatures and indicated that fluvial (68% of all fish), resident (27%), and adfluvial (5%) life history strategies were present. Connectivity in lotic systems and from lotic to lentic environments supports WCT life history diversity and contributes to a broad distribution of the species.

Idaho↗
USGS2010

The influence of partial timber harvesting in riparian buffers on macroinvertebrate and fish communities in small streams in Minnesota, USA

Relatively few evaluations of aquatic macroinvertebrate and fish communities have been published in peer-reviewed literature detailing the effect of varying residual basal area (RBA) after timber harvesting in riparian buffers. Our analysis investigated the effects of partial harvesting within riparian buffers on aquatic macroinvertebrate and fish communities in small streams from two experiments in northern Minnesota northern hardwood-aspen forests. Each experiment evaluated partial harvesting within riparian buffers. In both experiments, benthic macroinvertebrates and fish were collected 1 year prior to harvest and in each of 3 years after harvest. We observed interannual variation for the macroinvertebrate abundance, diversity and taxon richness in the single-basin study and abundance and diversity in the multiple-basin study, but few effects related to harvest treatments in either study. However, interannual variation was not evident in the fish communities and we detected no significant changes in the stream fish communities associated with partially harvested riparian buffers in either study. This would suggest that timber harvesting in riparian management zones along reaches ≤200 m in length on both sides of the stream that retains RBA ≥ 12.4 ± 1.3 m 2 ha −1 or on a single side of the stream that retains RBA ≥ 8.7 ± 1.6 m 2 ha −1 may be adequate to protect macroinvertebrate and fish communities in our Minnesota study systems given these specific timber harvesting techniques.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Forest structure affects trophic linkages: How silvicultural disturbance impacts bats and their insect prey

Vertebrate insectivores such as bats are a pervasive top-down force on prey populations in forest ecosystems. Conservation focusing on forest-dwelling bats requires understanding of community-level interactions between these predators and their insect prey. Our study assessed bat activity and insect occurrence (abundance and diversity) across a gradient of forest disturbance and structure (silvicultural treatments) in the Central Appalachian region of North America. We conducted acoustic surveys of bat echolocation concurrent with insect surveys using blacklight and malaise traps over 2 years. Predator activity, prey occurrence and prey biomass varied seasonally and across the region. The number of bat echolocation pulses was positively related with forest disturbance, whereas prey demonstrated varied trends. Lepidopteran abundance was negatively related with disturbance, while dipteran abundance and diversity was positively related with disturbance. Coleoptera were unaffected. Neither bat nor insect response variables differed between plot interiors and edges. Correlations between bat activity and vegetative structure reflected differences in foraging behavior among ensembles. Activity of myotine bats was correlated with variables describing sub-canopy vegetation, whereas activity of lasiurine bats was more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetation. Lepidopteran abundance was correlated with variables describing canopy and sub-canopy vegetation, whereas coleopteran and dipteran occurrence were more closely correlated with canopy-level vegetative structure. Our study demonstrates regional variation in bat activity and prey occurrence across a forested disturbance gradient. Land management and conservation efforts should consider the importance of vegetation structure and plant species richness to sustain forest-dwelling bats and their insect prey.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2019

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense in response to mountain pine beetle outbreaks

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a critical forest species of Northern Rocky Mountain upper subalpine ecosystems, yet little is known about the physiological response of whitebark pine to disturbance (e.g. fire, bark beetles, and pathogens) across a range of diverse environmental gradients. Resin–based defenses have long been recognized as the primary mechanism by which conifers respond to attack by bark beetles and pathogens and several studies have linked resin duct properties to survivorship during periods of increased beetle activity. However, to our knowledge, no studies have compared axial resin ducts in the secondary xylem of whitebark pine across pairs of living and dead whitebark pine trees to better understand survivorship following multiple disturbances including mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust. We found a clear distinction in growth and defense characteristics between live and dead whitebark pine. Across our study sites on the Flathead Indian Reservation in northwestern Montana, live whitebark pine produced larger resin ducts with a greater annual investment in resin–based defenses than whitebark pine that died. Resin duct size, duct area, and relative duct area were all greater in live whitebark pine (by 56%, 48%, and 57%, respectively) and these were the most important variables influencing whitebark pine survivorship. In contrast, whitebark pine that had died grew faster over time (22% larger ring widths) than their live counterparts and also produced more resin duct structures (20% more ducts on average). Whitebark pine at our study sites exhibit differing strategies in the allocation of resources toward growth and defense, with the majority of survivors of recent disturbance investing more in defensive structures than growth. Our results support the idea that maintaining genetic variability and the associated suite of differing physiological traits promotes diverse response strategies to a complex array of biophysical and biological stressors that might leave a species vulnerable to extinction across its range.

Northern Rocky Mountain↗
USGS2022

Level and pattern of overstory retention shape the abundance and long-term dynamics of natural and created snags

Standing dead trees, or snags, serve myriad functions in natural forests, but are often scarce in forests managed for timber production. Variable retention (VR), the retention of live and dead trees through harvest, has been adopted globally as a less intensive form of regeneration harvest. In this study, we explore how two key elements of VR systems — level (amount) and spatial pattern of live-tree retention — affect the carryover and post-harvest dynamics of natural and artificially created snags. We present nearly two decades of data from the DEMO Study, a regional-scale experiment in VR harvests of Douglas-fir-dominated forests in the Pacific Northwest. Snag losses to harvest were greater at 15 than at 40% retention (67 vs. 47% declines in density) and greater in dispersed than in aggregated treatments (64 vs. 50% declines). Densities of hard and tall (≥5 m) snags were particularly sensitive to low-level dispersed retention, declining by 76 and 81%, respectively. Despite these losses, post-harvest densities correlated with pre-harvest densities for most snag size and decay classes. In contrast to initial harvest effects, snag densities changed minimally over the post-harvest period (years 1 to 18 or 19), with low rates of recruitment offsetting low rates of loss. Post-harvest survival of snags was greater at 15 than at 40% retention (79 vs. 69%), as were rates of decay (68 vs. 52% of hard snags transitioned to soft). However, pattern had no effect on either process. Snag recruitment did not vary with retention level or pattern at the scale of the 13-ha harvest unit, but was several-fold greater in the 1-ha aggregates (14.3–27.8 snags ha −1 ) than in the corresponding dispersed treatments (4.2–5.3 snags ha −1 ). Snag size (diameter) distributions showed greater change in dispersed than in aggregated treatments, reflecting greater loss of smaller snags and recruitment biased toward larger snags. Created snags showed uniformly high survival (97%), irrespective of treatment, but rates of decay were greater at lower retention. If a goal of VR is to sustain snag abundance and diversity through harvest, emphasis should be placed on minimizing initial losses, either by reducing the intensity of felling in areas of dispersed retention or locating forest aggregates in areas of greater initial snag density, diversity, or incipient decay.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2018

Quantitative evaluation of vitrinite reflectance and atomic O/C in coal using Raman spectroscopy and multivariate analysis

Vitrinite reflectance (VRo) is a standard petrographic method for assessing thermal maturity (rank) of coal. The vitrinite reflectance technique, however, requires significant petrographic experience, can be time-consuming, and may be biased by analyst subjectivity. Correlations between coal rank and Raman spectral properties are a promising alternative that can supplant some of the limitations inherent in the VRo protocol. The traditional peak-fitting methodologies for quantifying metrics from Raman spectra, however, also suffer from analyst subjectivity that can affect correlations between analyte and spectral properties. This research combines high-throughput Raman spectroscopy with multivariate analysis (MVA) to create calibration models for the prediction of coal rank though VRo and atomic O/C ratio. MVA techniques eliminate the ambiguous subjectivity prevalent in peak-fitting methods by evaluating the full Raman spectrum, then identifying the integral vibrational modes for constructing accurate models. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models were developed using Raman spectra and VRo values (0.23–5.23%) for 68 geographically diverse coal samples. The calibration set was validated using one-half of the samples to rigorously assess the model’s predictive accuracy. The root mean standard error of prediction was 0.19 for the VRo model and 0.014 for the atomic O/C model. Both models exhibited linear correlations, with coefficients of determination ( R 2 ) for the validation set of 0.99 (VRo) and 0.93 (atomic O/C), despite the geographic and rank diversity of the samples. This study demonstrates the applicability and power of using PLS models for the prediction of both the VRo and atomic O/C ratio from Raman spectra. The quantitative MVA protocol contained herein provides a Raman alternative to the VRo industry benchmark for coal rank that is not subject to the limitations and subjectivity of peak-fitting methods.

Fuel↗
USGS2019

Quantitative evaluation of vitrinite reflectance in shale using Raman spectroscopy and multivariate analysis

The current research builds upon a previously published study that demonstrated the combination of Raman spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis (MVA) for the prediction of thermal maturity in coal by evaluating the efficacy of this method for the prediction of thermal maturity in shale. MVA techniques eliminate analyst bias in peak-fitting methods by using the full Raman spectrum, and then extricating the important spectral regions for distinguishing samples and building accurate, robust models. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models were developed using Raman spectra and VRo values (0.58–4.59%) for 53 geographically diverse shale chip samples, and 43 shale powder samples. Separate PLS models were built using Raman spectra from shale chips or powders. The calibration sets were validated using approximately one-third of the samples to rigorously assess the predictive accuracy of the models. The root mean standard error of prediction was 0.24 for the shale chip model, and 0.28 for the shale powder model. The coefficients of determination ( R 2 ) for the cross-validated data sets were identical (0.90, chips; 0.90, powders), revealing a strong linearity despite the geographic and age diversity of the samples. This study demonstrates the validity of using PLS models for the prediction of shale VRo from Raman spectra. The MVA method described herein presents a Raman alternative to the VRo industry benchmark for assessing thermal maturity in shale that is not imperiled by the shortcomings and subjectivity of peak-fitting methods.

Fuel↗
USGS2024

Characterizing sulfur redox state and geochemical implications in deep-time using mineral chemistry network analysis

Sulfur (S) is a central element in global biogeochemical cycling and Earth’s redox evolution. Minerals that contain S are an important record of local environmental conditions at the time of their formation based on chemical speciation and redox. However, the oxidation state of S for hundreds of different S-containing minerals and thousands of S-containing mineral localities is unknown, largely sulfides and sulfosalts, and the redox state alone does not fully capture mineral chemistry diversity, thus limiting understanding of S redox evolution. Here, we use mineral chemistry network analysis and the weighted Mineral Element Electronegativity Coefficient of Variation (wMEE CV ) metric to investigate the element interactions and localities of S-containing minerals from the Mineral Evolution Database (MED) to infer the redox state of S in minerals where the redox state is unknown (S U ). Louvain community detection of the S mineral chemistry redox network reveals that there are three main network communities that are separated by redox state. The S 6+ community includes minerals that contain the S 6+ redox state and a small number of S 4+ and S 2+ minerals, the S 2− community includes S 2− -containing minerals, and the S U community includes minerals in which the redox state of S is unknown. The wMEE CV values of the S U community closely overlap with the wMEE CV values of the S 2− community, and do not overlap with the wMEE CV values of the S 6+ community, indicating the S U community minerals contain predominately reduced S. Assuming that S U community minerals contain reduced S, as supported by their network chemical associations and wMEE CV values, then reduced S-containing minerals make up approximately 81 % of S-containing mineral localities in the S mineral chemistry network, even though the majority of all mineral localities (S-containing and non-S-containing) are oxygen (O)-containing minerals. Additionally, reduced S-containing minerals make up the majority (∼75 %) of all non-O containing mineral localities in the MED, representing the importance of reduced S as an electron source and substrate in the evolution of microbial metabolic networks. The range wMEE CV values of S 6+ community minerals expands through time due primarily to formation of chemically diverse sulfate minerals, coinciding with crustal oxidation from the late Proterozoic to Phanerozoic and the expansion of the marine sulfate reservoir. The intersection of shared constituent elements among reduced and oxidized S in the mineral chemistry network represents redox convergence of weathered S in the geosphere that was crucial in the formation of natural resource deposits and the evolution of biogeochemical cycles.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2022

Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species

Imperiled species face numerous and diverse anthropogenic threats to their persistence, and wildlife managers charged with making conservation decisions benefit from a sound understanding of how populations, species, and ecosystems will respond to future changes in threats to biodiversity. In southeastern North America, the gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in upland ecosystems; however, tortoise populations have declined strongly over the last century, and the species is a candidate for increased protection by the United States federal government under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Here, we sought to support conservation decision making for G. polyphemus by developing a spatially-explicit predictive population model that linked four anthropogenic threats (climate warming, sea-level rise, urbanization, habitat degradation) to demographic vital rates and used the model to estimate future changes in the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations across the species’ range. Using recent survey data, we projected 457 populations for 80 years into the future under scenarios varying in threat magnitude, management magnitude, and demographic uncertainty. Population projections predicted that the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations would decline among all simulated scenarios in the next 80 years. Model predictions were more sensitive to variation in adult survival and immigration rates than to variation in threat magnitude. A scenario with decreased habitat management and threat effects from climate warming, sea-level rise, and urbanization predicted geographic variation in persistence probabilities for populations that might result in decreased genetic representation across the species' range. Our results can be used to support conservation listing decisions for the gopher tortoise as part of its federal Species Status Assessment and provide an analytical framework for how to link diverse threats to geographically-varying demographic rates during population viability analyses for wide-ranging imperiled species around the world.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗