USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89Linked to original sources
USGS2010

The carbon budget of the northern cryosphere region

The northern cryosphere is undergoing substantial warming of permafrost and loss of sea ice. Release of stored carbon to the atmosphere in response to this change has the potential to affect the global climate system. Studies indicate that the northern cryosphere has been not only a substantial sink for atmospheric CO 2 in recent decades, but also an important source of CH 4 because of emissions from wetlands and lakes. Analyses suggest that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the region over the 21st Century is potentially large, but highly uncertain because numerous pathways of response will be affected by warming. Further research should focus on sensitive elements of the carbon cycle such as the consequences of increased fire disturbance, permafrost degradation, and sea ice loss in the northern cryosphere region.

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability↗
USGS2022

Can we accurately estimate sediment budgets on Mars?

Sediment budgets are fundamentally important for planetary science. However, only one primary method, based on remote sensing, is currently available for determining extraterrestrial sediment budgets. For determining sediment budgets on Earth, both in-situ and remote sensing methods are available. Despite the widespread use of the two methods, there has been surprisingly little research on how well the sediment budgets produced by these two approaches reconcile with one another, which highlights the lack of quantitative understanding of errors for sediment budgets measured with remote sensing in planetary research. Therefore, there is a general need to expand our knowledge of sediment budgets. Here we use a background review and analog case study of an aeolian dunefield in Grand Canyon, Earth to frame a path forward for addressing shortcomings of remote sensing sediment budgets on Mars. We estimate a 53% percent difference in the sediment budget determined with remote sensing relative to in-situ methods for a simple endmember scenario of a dunefield within a unimodal wind directional regime and no external sediment supply. However, when we incorporated key sources of uncertainty in remote sensing change detection following methods commonly used by geomorphologists on Earth, the estimates of sediment budget differences relative to the in-situ method spanned a much larger range, from 3% to 138%. Our case study also suggests that sediment budget errors could be much larger under more complex wind direction, sediment supply, and physiographic settings, and that variability in those landscape characteristics might be used to better estimate errors for dunefield sediment budgets. We conclude that by comparing sediment budgets derived from in-situ measurements of sediment fluxes and from remote sensing measurements at many more analog sites on Earth, the aeolian research community, and the geomorphology discipline, could gain an understanding of the errors of the remote sensing method, which is used by investigators on other planetary bodies such as Mars. This could improve the ability to quantify sediment budgets on Mars – and, in the future, other planetary environments where high-resolution topographic data are available – as well as directly improve our ability to interpret extraterrestrial landscape evolution related to climate, weather, and geologic history.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗
USGS2010

Alexandria's Eastern Harbor, Egypt: Pollen, microscopic charcoal, and the transition from natural to human-modified basin

Pollen and microscopic charcoal examined in Holocene sediment core samples record major environmental modifications affecting Alexandria's Eastern Harbor through time. We assess whether such changes on Egypt's coastal margin were influenced primarily by natural, or natural plus human, or primarily human factors. We focus on (1) the times when pollen assemblages and microscopic charcoal content changed in the core, (2) how they changed, and (3) why this occurred. The analysis takes into account the core's stratigraphy, regional climate variability, human history, and local archaeological record. Four pollenmicroscopic charcoal zones are identified. The earliest change occurred at ca. 6000 YBP, during Egypt's earlier Predynastic (Neolithic) period, coinciding with a lithologic break from sand to muddy sand. Pollen during this time indicates a transition to a much drier climate rather than effects of human activity. The second change in pollen occurred 3600-2900 YBP, during a period of continued aridity with no lithologic variation in this core interval. Pollen (cereal taxa, agricultural weeds, grape) and a sharp increase in microscopic charcoal indicate that human activity became prevalent at least 700 y before Alexander the Great's arrival in this region, and these results highlight the transition from a largely natural climatecontrolled environment to one influenced by both climate and anthropogenic activity. The third shift up-core in pollen assemblages is dated at ca. 2300 YBP, at the boundary between a sand and mud unit. It coincides with construction by the Ptolemies of the Heptastadion between Alexandria and Pharos Island. From this time onward, harbor sediment in the nearly enclosed catchment basin indicates a near-continuous record of dominant proximal human activity. ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2017

The role of paleoecology in restoration and resource management—The past as a guide to future decision-making: Review and example from the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, U.S.A

Resource managers around the world are challenged to develop feasible plans for sustainable conservation and/or restoration of the lands, waters, and wildlife they administer—a challenge made greater by anticipated climate change and associated effects over the next century. Increasingly, paleoecologic and geologic archives are being used to extend the period of record of observed data and provide information on centennial to millennial scale responses to long-term drivers of ecosystem change. The development of paleoecology from an emerging field investigating past environments to a highly relevant applied science is reviewed and general examples of the application of paleoecologic research to resource management questions in diverse habitats and regions are provided. Specific examples of the application of paleoecologic research to the restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida (U.S.A) are presented. Conducting valuable scientific research that would benefit resource management decisions, however, is not enough. Scientists and resource managers need to be engaged in collaborative discussions from the beginning of the research process to ensure that management questions are being addressed and that the science reaches the people who will benefit from the information. Paleoecology and related disciplines provide an understanding of how ecosystems and individual species function and change over time in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Information on pre-anthropogenic baseline conditions is provided by paleoecologic research, but it is the detection of long-term trends and cycles that allow resource managers to set realistic goals and targets by moving away from the fixed-point baseline concept to one of dynamic landscapes that anticipates and incorporates an expectation of change into decision-making.

Florida↗
USGS2006

Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils

With climate change rapidly affecting northern forests and wetlands, mercury reserves once protected in cold, wet soils are being exposed to burning, likely triggering large releases of mercury to the atmosphere. We quantify organic soil mercury stocks and burn areas across western, boreal Canada for use in fire emission models that explore controls of burn area, consumption severity, and fuel loading on atmospheric mercury emissions. Though renowned as hotspots for the accumulation of mercury and its transformation to the toxic methylmercury, boreal wetlands might soon transition to hotspots for atmospheric mercury emissions. Estimates of circumboreal mercury emissions from this study are 15-fold greater than estimates that do not account for mercury stored in peat soils. Ongoing and projected increases in boreal wildfire activity due to climate change will increase atmospheric mercury emissions, contributing to the anthropogenic alteration of the global mercury cycle and exacerbating mercury toxicities for northern food chains. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Widespread exposures of extensive clean shallow ice in the mid-latitudes of Mars

Although ice in the Martian midlatitudes is typically covered by a layer of dust or regolith, it is exposed in some locations by fresh impact craters or in erosional scarps. In both cases, the exposed ice is massive or excess ice with a low lithic content. We find that erosional scarps occur between 50° and 61° north and south latitude and that they are concentrated in and near Milankovič crater in the northern hemisphere and southeast of the Hellas basin in the southern hemisphere. These may represent locations of particularly thick or clean bodies of ice. Pits created by retreat of the scarps represent sublimation-thermokarst landforms that evolve in a manner distinct from other ice-loss landforms on Mars. New impact craters reveal that clean subsurface ice is widespread at middle- and high-latitudes in both hemispheres at depths less than 1 m. Both the depth to ice and the ice content appear to exhibit significant variability over tens to hundreds of meters. The lowest-latitude exposed ice is near 39°N and is at the edge of a region where impact exposures between 40° and 50°N are common, consistent with other indications of a high ice content. This lowest-latitude ice may be currently unstable and subliming. Impact craters on lineated valley fill excavate ice blocks that may represent the top of debris-covered glacial ice. Together, these landforms indicate widespread, clean subsurface ice at middle-latitudes on Mars. The distribution and properties of this ice could provide information about past climate conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2025

Ubiquity and causes of soil water preferential flow across 17 ecoregions

Preferential flow (PF) in soil causes the rapid transport of water, nutrients, and contaminants into the subsurface, influencing groundwater recharge and streamflow. Data scarcity has hindered the quantification of PF occurrence and the identification of its drivers across diverse ecoregions. We address this gap by analyzing high-frequency, multi-depth soil moisture data across 17 ecoregions in the USA, using ∼1,500 sensors at 40 sites. We discovered that PF is widespread, with sites experiencing PF in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Multiple approaches consistently show that PF is more likely to occur with increased peak rainfall intensity, finer textured material, low soil moisture variability, humid climate, and higher net primary productivity. This suggests that PF patterns could shift with projected climate changes, increasing uncertainty in predictions of groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation.

conterminous United States and Puerto Rico↗
USGS2016

Evaluating potential sources of variation in Chironomidae catch rates on sticky traps

Sticky traps are a convenient tool for assessing adult aquatic insect population dynamics, but there are many practical questions about how trap sampling artefacts may affect observed results. Utilising study sites on the Colorado River and two smaller streams in northern Arizona, USA, we evaluated whether catch rates and sex ratios of Chironomidae, a ubiquitous aquatic insect, were affected by spraying traps with insecticide, placing traps at different heights above ground, and placing traps at different locations within a terrestrial habitat patch. We also evaluated temporal variation in Chironomidae counts monthly over a 9-month growing season. We found no significant variation in catch rates or sex ratios between traps treated versus untreated with insecticide, nor between traps placed at the upstream or downstream end of a terrestrial habitat patch. Traps placed near ground level did have significantly higher catch rates than traps placed at 1.5 m, although sex ratios were similar across heights. Chironomidae abundance and sex ratios also varied from month-to-month and seemed to be related to climatic conditions. Our results inform future sticky trap studies by demonstrating that trap height, but not insecticide treatment or precise trap placement within a habitat patch, is an important source of variation influencing catch rates.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Late Quaternary pollen record from southwest Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, and the vegetation history of central Beringia

Pollen analysis of samples from a coastal exposure near Teller, southwestern Seward Peninsula, Alaska, provides a record of vegetation and climate spanning the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) through the Holocene. The site is near the center of the former Bering Land Bridge (BLB). The oldest pollen-bearing sediment unit is a loess deposit of LGM age, with pollen assemblages that closely resemble LGM assemblages from other key sites in central Beringia spanning 16° of latitude. These fossil assemblages represent vegetation composed primarily of grasses, sedges, Artemisia , willows, and forbs and are interpreted to represent steppe–tundra, associated with dry climates and summer temperatures cooler than at present. LGM mosses did not accumulate insulating layers of peat; the summer active soil layer was deeper than at present. Permafrost with ice wedges and loess deposition were widespread. A regional transition from steppe–tundra vegetation to a dwarf shrub–sedge–moss mesic-to-wetland vegetation began in central Beringia with the onset of Bølling–Allerød (B-A) warming at 14,700 cal yr BP. Warming events of the B-A and early Holocene resulted in widespread development of thermokarst terrain on the BLB and on ice-rich terrain in Western Alaska. Mesic climates and vegetation developed on the BLB during the marine transgression and because of B-A and early Holocene warming. Early Holocene warming allowed some boreal forest species such as alders to begin colonizing Western Alaska from the interior.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

Michigan;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2008

Pollen evidence for late pleistocene bering land bridge environments from Norton Sound, Northeastern Bering Sea, Alaska

After more than half a century of paleoenvironmental investigations, disagreements persist as to the nature of vegetation type and climate of the Bering land bridge (BLB) during the late Wisconsin (Sartan) glacial interval. Few data exist from sites on the former land bridge, now submerged under the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Two hypotheses have emerged during the past decade. The first, based on pollen data from Bering Sea islands and adjacent mainlands of western Alaska and Northeast Siberia, represents the likely predominant vegetation on the Bering land bridge during full-glacial conditions: graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation associated with cold, dry winters and cool, dry summer climate. The second hypothesis suggests that dwarf birch-shrub-herb tundra formed a broad belt across the BLB, and that mesic vegetation was associated with cold, snowier winters and moist, cool summers. As a step towards resolving this controversy, a sediment core from Norton Sound, northeastern Bering Sea was radiocarbon dated and analyzed for pollen content. Two pollen zones were identified. The older, bracketed by radiocarbon ages of 29,500 and 11,515 14 C yr BP, contains pollen assemblages composed of grass, sedge, wormwood, willow, and a variety of herb (forb) taxa. These assemblages are interpreted to represent graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation that developed under an arid, cool climate regime. The younger pollen zone sediments were deposited about 11,515 14 C yr BP, when rising sea level had begun to flood the BLB. This younger pollen zone contains pollen of birch, willow, heaths, aquatic plants, and spores of sphagnum moss. This is interpreted to represent a Lateglacial dwarf birch-heath-willow-herb tundra vegetation, likely associated with a wetter climate with deeper winter snows, and moist, cool summers. This record supports the first hypothesis, that graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation extended into the lowlands of the BLB during full glacial conditions of the late Wisconsin.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Biophysical drivers for predicting the distribution and abundance of invasive yellow sweetclover in the Northern Great Plains

Context Yellow sweetclover ( Melilotus officinalis ; YSC) is an invasive biennial legume that bloomed across the Northern Great Plains in 2018–2019 in response to above-average precipitation. YSC can increase nitrogen (N) levels and potentially cause substantial changes in the composition of native plant species communities. There is little knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability and conditions causing substantial widespread blooms of YSC across western South Dakota (SD). Objectives We aimed to develop a generalized prediction model to predict the relative abundance of YSC in suitable habitats across rangelands of western South Dakota for 2019. Our research questions are: (1) What is the spatial extent of YSC across western South Dakota? (2) Which model can accurately predict the habitat and percent cover of YSC? and (3) What significant biophysical drivers affect its presence across western South Dakota? Methods We trained machine learning models with in situ data (2016–2021), Sentinel 2A-derived surface reflectance and indices (10 m, 20 m) and site-specific variables of climate, topography, and edaphic factors to optimize model performance. Results We identified moisture proxies (Shortwave Infrared reflectance and variability in Tasseled Cap Wetness) as the important predictors to explain the YSC presence. Land Surface Water Index and variability in summer temperature were the top predictors in explaining the YSC abundance. We demonstrated how machine learning algorithms could help generate valuable information on the spatial distribution of this invasive plant. We delineated major YSC hotspots in Butte, Pennington, and Corson Counties of South Dakota. The floodplains of major rivers, including White and Bad Rivers, and areas around Badlands National Park also showed a higher occurrence probability and cover percentage. Conclusions These prediction maps could aid land managers in devising management strategies for the regions that are prone to YSC outbreaks. The management workflow can also serve as a prototype for mapping other invasive plant species in similar regions.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

At the leading edge: Advancing and bridging the science and management of range-shifting species

Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

BioScience↗
USGS2015

Improving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ fundamental and realized adaptive capacity

Worldwide, many species are responding to ongoing climate change with shifts in distribution, abundance, phenology, or behavior. Consequently, natural-resource managers face increasingly urgent conservation questions related to biodiversity loss, expansion of invasive species, and deteriorating ecosystem services. We argue that our ability to address these questions is hampered by the lack of explicit consideration of species’ adaptive capacity (AC). AC is the ability of a species or population to cope with climatic changes and is characterized by three fundamental components: phenotypic plasticity, dispersal ability, and genetic diversity. However, few studies simultaneously address all elements; often, AC is confused with sensitivity or omitted altogether from climate-change vulnerability assessments. Improved understanding, consistent definition, and comprehensive evaluations of AC are needed. Using classic ecological-niche theory as an analogy, we propose a new paradigm that considers fundamental and realized AC: the former reflects aspects inherent to species, whereas the latter denotes how extrinsic factors constrain AC to what is actually expressed or observed. Through this conceptualization, we identify ecological attributes contributing to AC, outline areas of research necessary to advance understanding of AC, and provide examples demonstrating how the inclusion of AC can better inform conservation and natural-resource management.

Conservation Letters↗
USGS2024

A comparative analysis of OpenET for evaluating evapotranspiration in California almond orchards

The almond industry in California faces water management challenges that are being exacerbated by droughts, climate change, and groundwater sustainability legislation. The Tree-crop Remote sensing of Evapotranspiration eXperiment (T-REX) aims to explore opportunities to improve precision irrigation management for woody perennial cropping systems. Almond orchards in the California Central Valley were equipped with eddy covariance flux measurements to evaluate satellite remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (RSET) models. OpenET provides high-resolution (30-m spatial and daily temporal) RSET data, synthesizing decades of research for practical water management. This study provides an evaluation of OpenET performance at six almond sites covering a large range in soils, age, and variety. It also compares OpenET ensemble evapotranspiration (ET) data with applied irrigation and precipitation records over an additional 148 almond orchards located in the Central Valley of California. Results show OpenET models, including the ensemble ET value, produced reasonable and actionable ET values, with overall coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error values of 0.73- and 0.95-mm d −1 at the daily time step, respectively. However, given the temporal sampling of Landsat (8-day revisit) and the interpolation methods used, the assessed ET models had difficulty in capturing short-term variability in almond ET; for example, the rapid decline in measured ET observed as a response to lack of irrigation preceding and during almond harvest. The study also drew attention to the spatial complexity in scenarios where irrigated orchards are surrounded by hot/dry areas, causing discrepancies between measured and modeled ET values. In comparison with irrigation records, OpenET ensemble ET was capable of quantifying water input (applied irrigation + precipitation) in almond orchards to within 13 % when evaluating monthly data. Initial results presented here reinforce the idea that RSET models, such as in OpenET, are powerful tools, yet their application requires nuanced understanding and careful consideration of local conditions.

California↗
USGS2009

Delineation of Magnesium-rich Ultramafic Rocks Available for Mineral Carbon Sequestration in the United States

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage suggested that a major gap in mineral carbon sequestration is locating the magnesium-silicate bedrock available to sequester CO2. It is generally known that silicate minerals with high concentrations of magnesium are suitable for mineral carbonation. However, no assessment has been made covering the entire United States detailing their geographical distribution and extent, or evaluating their potential for use in mineral carbonation. Researchers at Columbia University and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a digital geologic database of ultramafic rocks in the continental United States. Data were compiled from varied-scale geologic maps of magnesium-silicate ultramafic rocks. These rock types are potentially suitable as source material for mineral carbon-dioxide sequestration. The focus of the national-scale map is entirely on suitable ultramafic rock types, which typically consist primarily of olivine and serpentine minerals. By combining the map with digital datasets that show non-mineable lands (such as urban areas and National Parks), estimates on potential depth of a surface mine, and the predicted reactivities of the mineral deposits, one can begin to estimate the capacity for CO2 mineral sequestration within the United States. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗