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At least 1,603 records · Page 89Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains

1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can increase carbon uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance carbon release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires. 2. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species, and their combined effects on regional carbon stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. 3. Total ecosystem carbon increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38 – 69% with GCM climate. Differences in carbon uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper treeline, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27 – 215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3 °C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live carbon stocks by 4 – 36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total carbon were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by carbon retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and carbon uptake. 4. Synthesis. Forests in the GYE can maintain a carbon sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live aboveground biomass, and ultimately, ecosystem carbon. Future changes in carbon stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Landscape change, fire and erosion

New Mexico has a dynamic landscape, which will become even more so in response to climate change over the next 50 years, in part because of increasing incidence of wildfire. As the climate changes to warmer conditions, less rainfall will infiltrate into aquifers, leading to increased overland runoff. Landform processes can be complex, but in general, the predicted changes in climate and precipitation will lead to increased flooding, increased upland erosion caused by runoff, and increased downstream sediment deposition. Canyons and mesas, small basins or valleys filled with sediment will be particularly affected. Rapid rearrangement of sediments by water is disruptive and potentially hazardous to ecosystems and societies. Dramatic examples of accelerated erosion following the Whitewater-Baldy, Las Conchas and other wildfires here in New Mexico illustrate the types of hazards created when forested landscapes are severely burned. Post-wildfire erosion is typically initiated by intense rainfall events. Given that both the number of wildfires, and rainfall intensities are likely to increase as the climate warms, New Mexico can expect to see increases in widespread erosion and sedimentation across and downstream from upland forested areas in the state. The large volume of sediment predicted to be on the move will be of concern for many reasons including filling reservoirs, choking channels, blocking or destroying infrastructure and positive feedback loops that lead to further reductions in slope stability.

New Mexico↗
USGS2019

Finding the sweet spot: Shifting climate optima for maple syrup production in North America

Climate change is affecting the benefits society derives from forests. One such forest ecosystem service is maple syrup, which is primarily derived from Acer saccharum (sugar maple), currently an abundant and widespread tree species in eastern North America. Two climate sensitive components of sap affect syrup production: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap derives from carbohydrate stores influenced by prior year growing season conditions. Sap flow is tied to freeze/thaw cycles during early spring. Predicting climate effects on syrup production thus requires integrating observations across scales and biological processes. We observed sap at 6 sugar maple stands spanning sugar maple’s latitudinal range over 2¬–6 years to predict the role of climate variation on sugar content and sap flow. We found that the timing of sap collection advanced by 4.3 days for every 1 °C increase in March mean temperature, sap volume peaked at a January-May mean temperature of 1 °C, and sap sugar content declined by 0.1 °Brix for every 1 °C increase in previous May-October mean temperature. Using these empirical relationships, we projected that the sap collection season midpoint will be 1 month earlier and sap sugar content will decline by 0.7 °Brix across sugar maple’s range by the year 2100 in an RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The region of maximum sap flow is expected to shift northward by 400km, from near the 43rd parallel to the 48th parallel by 2100. Our findings suggest climate change will have profound effects on syrup yield across most of sugar maple’s range; drastic shifts in the timing of the tapping season accompanied by flat to moderate increases in syrup yield per tap in Canada contrast with declines in syrup yield and higher frequencies of poor syrup production years across most of the U.S. range.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2017

Facilitating adaptation in montane plants to changing precipitation along an elevation gradient

Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in precipitation and temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation. Continued warmer, drier climate conditions have been documented and are projected to increase in high-elevation areas in Hawai‘i, consistent with climate change effects reported in other environments throughout the world. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration efforts will need to accommodate future climate change and account for the interactive effects of existing invasive species to ensure long-term persistence. As part of a larger, ongoing restoration effort, we hypothesized that plants from a lower-elevation forest ecotype would have higher rates of survival and growth compared to high-elevation forest conspecifics when grown in common plots along an elevation gradient. We monitored climate conditions at planting sites to identify whether temperature or rainfall influenced survival and growth after 20 weeks. We found that origin significantly affected survival in only one of three native montane species, Dodonaea viscosa. Contrary to our hypothesis, 75.2% of seedlings from high-elevation origin survived in comparison to 58.7% of seedlings from low elevation across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in linearized mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Only C. oahuense seedlings had similar predictors of growth and survival. There were no common patterns of growth or survival between species, indicating that responses to changing precipitation and emperature regimes varied between montane plant species. Results also suggest that locally sourced seed is important to ensure highest survival at restoration sites. Further experimentation on larger spatial and temporal scales is necessary to determine the empirical responses of species and communities to changing climate in the full context of highly degraded Hawaiian ecosystems.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2010

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Oregon↗
USGS2023

Climatic drivers of estuarine sediment dynamics

Estuarine sediment dynamics are controlled by myriad physical processes that operate across broad spatiotemporal scales. On the smallest scales, interactions between turbulence and individual particles control mobilization and settling, while interactions across larger scales between freshwater and marine inflow can control decadal timescale geomorphic change. Climate change, through the combined effects of sea-level rise, precipitation intensity, atmospheric variability, and anthropogenic intervention will affect sediment dynamics, geomorphology, and ultimately estuarine function. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the influence of these effects on sediment dynamics to assess the future evolution of estuaries. In this chapter we address the basic tidal, non-tidal, and geologic timescale concepts of estuarine sediment transport, then we illustrate how these concepts may be affected by future climate change. While sea-level rise alone will tend to favor sediment trapping and landward movement of estuaries, human influences within the watershed and estuary, including shoreline stabilization and dredging, may be of similar magnitude. The overarching goal of this chapter is to provide the reader with a basic framework of estuarine sediment transport so they can apply these general concepts to a specific system, under a predicted future state of climate, and develop testable hypotheses on future estuarine geomorphology and function.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Preparing for an uncertain future: Migrating shorebird response to past climatic fluctuations in the Prairie Potholes

The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring precipitation may produce abundant shallow‐water habitats. To look at the availability of habitats for migratory shorebirds under different climate regimes, we compared habitat selection between a historic wet year and a dry year using binomial random‐effects models to describe local and landscape patterns. We found that in the dry year shorebirds were distributed more northerly and among more permanent wetlands, whereas in the wet year shorebirds were distributed more southerly and among more temporary wetlands. However, landscape‐scale variation played a larger role in the dry year. At the local wetland scale, shorebirds selected similarly between years—for shallower wetlands and wetlands in croplands. Overall, while shorebirds were sensitive to local habitat conditions, they exhibited a degree of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts by their ability to shift on the landscape. This indicates an avenue through which management decisions can enhance climate change resilience for these species given an uncertain future—by preserving shallow‐water wetlands in croplands throughout the landscape.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2016

Landscape composition creates a threshold influencing Lesser Prairie-Chicken population resilience to extreme drought

Habitat loss and degradation compound the effects of climate change on wildlife, yet responses to climate and land cover change are often quantified independently. The interaction between climate and land cover change could be intensified in the Great Plains region where grasslands are being converted to row-crop agriculture concurrent with increased frequency of extreme drought events. We quantified the combined effects of land cover and climate change on a species of conservation concern in the Great Plains, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). We combined extreme drought events and land cover change with lek count surveys in a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify changes in abundance of male Lesser Prairie-Chickens from 1978 to 2014 in Kansas, the core of their species range. Our estimates of abundance indicate a gradually decreasing population through 2010 corresponding to drought events and reduced grassland areas. Decreases in Lesser Prairie-Chicken abundance were greatest in areas with increasing row-crop to grassland land cover ratio during extreme drought events, and decreased grassland reduces the resilience of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations to extreme drought events. A threshold exists for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in response to the gradient of cropland:grassland land cover. When moving across the gradient of grassland to cropland, abundance initially increased in response to more cropland on the landscape, but declined in response to more cropland after the threshold ( δ=0.096 , or 9.6% cropland). Preservation of intact grasslands and continued implementation of initiatives to revert cropland to grassland should increase Lesser Prairie-Chicken resilience to extreme drought events due to climate change.

Kansas↗
USGS2017

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2019

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗
USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

National seed strategy progress report, 2015-2020

Native plants are the true green infrastructure we rely on for healthy, resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems. They protect us against climate change and natural disasters; create habitat for wildlife, rare species, and pollinators; and are vital for carbon sequestration. Without native plants, especially their seeds, we do not have the ability to restore functional ecosystems after natural disasters and mitigate the effects of climate change. Investing now in coordinated, research-driven native seed production is an efficient and cost-effective nature-based solution for improving ecosystem resilience in the face of the climate and extinction crisis. Federal government agencies (see list on page 13 and their partners are collaborating to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration through the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (National Seed Strategy) to get the right seed in the right place at the right time. The National Seed Strategy is a public-private collaboration to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration projects to ensure ecosystem resilience and the health and prosperity of future generations. Developed by the Plant Conservation Alliance (PCA) in 2015, the National Seed Strategy harnesses cross sector botanical expertise, supports rural, agricultural, minority, and tribal livelihoods, and provides training opportunities to our next generation of natural resource professionals to maintain and preserve our iconic habitats. This science-driven national effort is integral to the Nation’s conservation priorities, including the commitment to conserve 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030 as outlined in Executive Order 14008 on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. Moreover, the National Seed Strategy is recognized in the objectives of the 2021 DOI Invasive Species Strategic Plan (DOI 2021) and addresses national priorities such as climate change, wildland fire, and tribal engagement. The National Seed Strategy charts a course for federal, tribal, state, local and private partners to increase private and public sector coordination on native seed development, thereby accelerating the pace and scale of restoration. Success is being achieved through the establishment of nationwide networks of seed collectors, researchers to develop seed, farmers to grow native seed, nurseries and seed storage facilities to supply adequate quantities of appropriate seed, and restoration ecologists.

Progress Report↗
USGS2015

Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes

Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides (quaking aspen) and Pinus resinosa (red pine), in the upper Great Lakes region to understand how climate and water availability influence annual forest productivity. Trees were sampled along a topographic gradient at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA) to assess growth response to variations in temperature and different water availability metrics (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), cumulative moisture index (CMI), and soil water storage). Climatic variables were able to explain 33–58% of the variation in annual growth (as measured by ring-width increment) for quaking aspen and 37–74% of the variation for red pine. Climate–growth relationships were influenced by topography for quaking aspen but not for red pine. Annual ring growth for quaking aspen decreased with June CMI on ridges, decreased with temperature in the November prior to the growing season on sideslopes, and decreased with June PET on toeslopes. Red pine growth increased with increasing July PET across all topographic positions. These results indicate the sensitivity of both quaking aspen and red pine to local climate and show several vulnerabilities of these species to shifts in water supply and temperature because of climate change.

Minnesota↗
USGS2016

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Grand Teton National Park, Yellowstone National Pa↗
USGS2010

The persistence of endangered Florida Salt Marsh Voles in salt marshes of the central Florida Gulf Coast

Two endangered Microtus pennsylvanicus dukecampbelli (Florida Salt Marsh Vole) were captured at a new location, in February of 2009, at Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge. Since the species discovery in 1979, only 43 Florida Salt Marsh Voles (hereafter FSM Vole) have been captured. Outside of the type locality, this is only the second documented location for the FSM Vole. Given the difficulty in trapping this species and the lack of information about its life history, its discovery in a new location lends itself to the possibility that it is more widespread in the Central Florida Gulf Coast than previously thought. Although much of the salt marsh in the area is in public ownership, a good deal of it has already been altered by logging or development and is threatened by global climate change. More research is needed to adequately protect and manage the habitat for the FSM Vole. A study of FSM Vole coastal salt marsh habitat could also serve as a valuable monitoring tool for subtle changes in salt marsh habitats as global climate change progresses.

Southeastern Naturalist↗
USGS2008

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Sea-level rise science: informing and preparing Florida's coastal communities

As a low-lying peninsula surrounded by water, Florida faces tough decisions about long-range planning and development strategies to address impacts of climate change. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated there is strong evidence that global average sea level will rise by ? to 2 feet in the next century due to continued thermal expansion and melting of ice on land.

Florida↗
USGS2025

History of terrestrial ecosystem development in southern Alexander Archipelago, Alaska since the onset of deglaciation

This chapter focuses on reconstructing the history of vegetation development in southern Alexander Archipelago (AA) of southeast Alaska during and after deglaciation up to the present day. It also summarizes key findings from recent paleoceanographic research in the Gulf of Alaska to provide a detailed, well-dated record of late Quaternary climate changes for the region. Understanding the regional climate history contributes to the reconstruction of late Quaternary glacial history and the timing of deglaciation, as it establishes minimum limiting dates for possible human occupation of southeast Alaska and northern coastal British Columbia (BC). This regional climate history is essential for recognizing relationships between the timing of climate changes and major ecological changes, and subsequent cultural development and adaptations. The reconstructed vegetation history of southern Alexander Archipelago since the onset of deglaciation provides important insights into the resources available to the earliest settlers and how these resources changed over time. The vegetation history presented here is based on dated pollen records from five unpublished sites and two previously published sites from the region. These records establish the timing and nature of changing terrestrial ecosystems in the southern AA.

Alaska↗