USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Ocean Modeling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,585 records · Page 88Linked to original sources

Across-shelf sediment transport: Interactions between suspended and bed sediment

We use a two-dimensional, time-dependent sediment-transport model to quantify across-shelf transport, deposition, and sorting during wave-driven resuspension events characteristic of those that dominate sediment transport on many continental shelves. Decreases in wave-orbital velocities as water depth increases, and the resulting cross-shelf gradient in bed shear stress favor a net offshore transport of sediment. On wide, flat shelves (slopes ∼0.1%percnt;), these gradients are low, and the depth to which the seabed is reworked depends mainly on bottom shear stress and local sediment availability. On narrow, steep shelves (slopes ∼0.5%percnt;), however, the gradient in bottom stress generates significant cross-shelf suspended sediment flux gradients that create regions of net erosion and deposition. While the magnitude of waves generally determines the water depth to which sediment can be resuspended, erosional and depositional patterns on narrow shelves are sensitive to cross-shelf gradients in wave energy, nonlocal sediment availability, and the direction and magnitude of the cross-shelf current. During energetic waves, cross-shelf divergence of suspended sediment flux can create a coarsened, erosional area on the inner shelf that abuts a region of fine-grained sediment deposition on the mid-to-outer shelf. If currents are strongly shoreward, however, flux divergence leads to erosion over the entire shelf.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Impact of Hurricane Irma on coral reef sediment redistribution at Looe Key Reef, Florida, USA

Understanding event-driven sediment transport in coral reef environments is essential to assessing impacts on reef species, habitats, restoration, and mitigation, yet a global knowledge gap remains due to limited quantitative studies. Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Lower Florida Keys with sustained 209 km h −1 winds and waves greater than 8 m on 10 September 2017, directly impacting the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) and providing an opportunity to perform a unique comprehensive, quantitative assessment of its impact on coral reef structure and sediment redistribution. We used lidar and multibeam derived digital elevation models (DEMs) collected before and after the passing of Hurricane Irma over a 15.98 km 2 area along the lower FRT including Looe Key Reef to quantify changes in seafloor elevation, volume, and structure due to storm impacts. Elevation change was calculated at over 4 million point locations across 10 habitat types within this study area for two time periods using data collected (1) approximately 1 year before the passing of Irma and 3 to 6 months following the storm's impact as well as (2) 3 to 6 months after and up to 16.5 months after the storm. Elevation change data were then used to generate triangulated irregular network (TIN) models in ArcMap to calculate changes in seafloor volume during each time period. Our results indicate that Hurricane Irma was primarily a depositional event that increased mean seafloor elevation and volume at this study site by 0.34 m and up to 5.4 Mm 3 , respectively. Sediment was transported primarily west-southwest (WSW) and downslope, modifying geomorphic seafloor features including the migration of sand waves and rubble fields, formation of scour marks in shallow seagrass habitats, and burial of seagrass and coral-dominated habitats. Approximately 16.5 months after Hurricane Irma (during a 13-month period between 2017 and 2019), net erosion was observed across all habitats with mean elevation change of −0.15 m and net volume change up to −2.46 Mm 3 . Rates of elevation change during this post-storm period were 1 to 2 orders of magnitude greater than decadal and multi-decadal rates of change in the same location, and changes showed erosion of approximately 50 % of sediment deposited during the storm event as seafloor sediment distribution began to re-equilibrate to non-storm sea-state conditions. Our results suggest that higher-resolution elevation change data collected over seasonal and annual time periods could enhance characterization and understanding of short-term and long-term rates and processes of seafloor change.

Florida↗

Reexamining the Honolulu Volcanics: Hawai‘i's classic case of rejuvenation volcanism

Rejuvenated volcanism is a worldwide phenomenon occurring on many oceanic islands in all of the major ocean basins. This plume-related volcanism follows the main edifice-building stage after a hiatus of variable duration (e.g. 0.6–2 Myrs in Hawai'i). The Honolulu Volcanics (HV), the classic case of rejuvenated volcanism, involved monogenetic eruptions from at least 48 vent areas. Previous studies inferred these vents were aligned along 3 to 11 rifts oriented orthogonal to the propagation direction of the Hawaiian plume. HV basalts are known for having high MgO contents (greater than 10 wt %) and upper mantle xenoliths. Thus, HV magmas are assumed to be relatively primitive and to have ascended rapidly (less than 1 day) through the crust. However, new analyses of olivine cores in basalts from 24 HV vents are mostly too low in forsterite content (74–86 mol %) to be in equilibrium with mantle melts. Olivine and clinopyroxene in HV basalts commonly show reverse zoning indicating magma mixing prior to eruption. These results are inconsistent with the rapid ascent of HV magmas directly from their mantle source. Many of the HV magmas underwent storage (probably in the lower crust or uppermost mantle), crystal fractionation and magma mixing prior to eruption. New 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates were determined for 11 HV lavas to evaluate their eruptive history. These ages, 80 to 685 ka, combined with our previous and other 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for HV lavas reveal long gaps (greater than 50 kyr) between some eruptions. Our comprehensive, whole-rock major and trace element database (63 XRF analyses, 57 ICPMS analyses) of basalts from 37 vents show remarkable compositional diversity with no obvious spatial pattern or temporal trends. The two most recent eruptive sequences have the greatest diversity (basanite and melilitite compositions). HV basanites show systematic trace element trends that may reflect mixing of multiple source components. The nephelinites and melilitites require a complex source history that may have involved residual accessory minerals during mantle melting and a metasomatic component that was not carbonatitic. The new ages and geochemical data show eruptions along most of the previously proposed rift systems were unrelated (except for the Koko Rift). Therefore, geodynamic models that relate HV volcanism to these rift systems are invalid. Lava volumes for two HV eruptions were estimated at 0.11 and 0.23 km 3 using surface mapping and water well data. Similar size, recent monogenetic eruptions in Auckland, New Zealand, were inferred to have lasted several months. Thus, if another HV eruption were to occur, which is possible given the long hiatus between eruptions, it would be extremely disruptive for the nearly 1 million residents of Honolulu. None of the existing geodynamic models fully explain the age duration, volumes and the locations of Hawai'i's rejuvenated volcanism. Thus, the cause of this secondary volcanism remains enigmatic.

Hawaii↗

Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition

Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down to near the base of the crust. The deep families that have high sensitivity to both shear and tensile normal stress perturbations may be indicative of an increase in effective fault contact area with depth. Synthesizing our observations with those of other LFE-hosting localities will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of transient fault slip below the “seismogenic zone” by providing constraints on parameters in physical models of slow slip and LFEs.

California↗

Geologic and isostatic gravity map of the Nenana basin area, central Alaska

The Nenana Basin area is a prospective petroleum province in central Alaska, and this geologic and isostatic gravity map is part of a petroleum resource assessment of the area. The geology was compiled from published sources as shown on the index map (map sheet). Map units are organized and presented according to the scheme of lithotectonic terranes proposed by Jones and others (1987) and Silberling and Jones (1984); we recognize, however, that this terrane scheme is controversial and likely to be revised in the future. In some cases, we combined certain terranes because we were unable to match the terrane boundaries given by Jones and others (1987) and Silberling and Jones (1984) with specific faults shown on existing geologic maps. Postaccretion cover deposits represent overlap assemblages that depositionally overlie accreted terranes. Plutonic igneous rocks shown on this map include several plutons that are clearly postaccretionary, based on isotopic ages and (or) field relations. It is possible that some of the plutons predate accretion, but this has not been demonstrated. According to Jones and others (1982), the terranes in the area of our map were assembled during late Mesozoic or earliest Cenozoic time. The gravity contours are derived from data used in earlier compilations that are supplemented by some National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data along the Alaska Pipeline level line. The earlier compilations were used for simple Bouguer maps, prepared primarily by non-digital methods, and are superseded by this map. The present map is the result of digital processing that includes the 1967 Geodetic Reference System, the IGSN-71 datum, digital terrain corrections, and conversion to isostatic gravity so that geologic structures on the margin of the Alaska Range are more clearly portrayed. Computation procedures are described in part by Barnes (1972, 1984), Jachens and Roberts (1981), and Barnes and others (1994). The calculations used a crustal density of 2.67 g/cm 3 , a density contrast at the base of the isostatic root of 0.4 g/cm 3 , and a root thickness at sea level of 25 km. The distribution of data within the map area is uneven and locally controls the shape of the computer-generated contours. Altimetry was used for most of the elevation control and its inconsistency is responsible for many of the small contour irregularities. Ninety percent of the measurements are estimated to have an accuracy of about 1.5 mgal or about a quarter of the 5 mgal contour interval. Data collection and analysis were assisted by R.V. Allen, R.C. Jachens, M.A. Fisher, T.R. Bruns, J.G. Blank, J.W. Bader, Z.C. Valin, J.W. Cady, R.L. Morin, and P.V. Woodward. The most promising area for petroleum exploration is a prominent 25 mgal isostatic gravity low north of Nenana (T. 2 S., R. 8 W.). This gravity low probably corresponds to the deepest part of a sedimentary basin filled by Cenozoic strata that includes nonmarine fluvial and lacustrine deposits of the Eocene to Miocene Usibelli Group. Smaller gravity lows are associated with outcrops of these sedimentary rocks north of Suntrana (T. 12 S., R. 6-9 W.) and Sable Pass (T. 16 S., R. 11 W.). A broad low on the north flank of the Alaska Range east of the Wood River (T. 10 S., R. 1 E.) indicates another basin under the Tanana lowland that extends eastward off the map area towards Delta Junction, where its presence was confirmed by both gravity and seismic data. Gravity modelling suggests that the base of the Usibelli Group in the area north of Nenana (T. 2 S., R. 8 W.) is about 3,000 to 3,350 m beneath the ground surface. Organic geochemical studies indicate that mudstones and coals in the Usibelli Group are potential sources of petroleum; calculations based on borehole temperatures suggest that, in the area of the gravity low, these rocks may have been buried deeply enough to generate oil and gas. Two exploratory wells, the Union Nenana No. 1 and the ARCO Totek Hills No. 11, were drilled some distance away from the gravity low in areas where the Usibelli Group is thin. Mudlogs show that both wells were dry holes that bottomed in schist and had gas shows associated with coal beds in the Usibelli Group, but no reported signs of oil.

Alaska↗

Long-term performance of Aanderaa optodes and sea-bird SBE-43 dissolved-oxygen sensors bottom mounted at 32 m in Massachusetts Bay

A field evaluation of two new dissolved-oxygen sensing technologies, the Aanderaa Instruments AS optode model 3830 and the Sea-Bird Electronics, Inc., model SBE43, was carried out at about 32-m water depth in western Massachusetts Bay. The optode is an optical sensor that measures fluorescence quenching by oxygen molecules, while the SBE43 is a Clark polarographic membrane sensor. Optodes were continuously deployed on bottom tripod frames by exchanging sensors every 4 months over a 19-month period. A Sea-Bird SBE43 was added during one 4-month deployment. These moored observations compared well with oxygen measurements from profiles collected during monthly shipboard surveys conducted by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. The mean correlation coefficient between the moored measurements and shipboard survey data was >0.9, the mean difference was 0.06 mL L −1 , and the standard deviation of the difference was 0.15 mL L −1 . The correlation coefficient between the optode and the SBE43 was >0.9 and the mean difference was 0.07 mL L −1 . Optode measurements degraded when fouling was severe enough to block oxygen molecules from entering the sensing foil over a significant portion of the sensing window. Drift observed in two optodes beginning at about 225 and 390 days of deployment is attributed to degradation of the sensing foil. Flushing is necessary to equilibrate the Sea-Bird sensor. Power consumption by the SBE43 and required pump was 19.2 mWh per sample, and the optode consumed 0.9 mWh per sample, both within expected values based on manufacturers’ specifications.

Massachusetts↗

Geohydrology of the Englishtown Formation in the northern Coastal Plain of New Jersey

The Englishtown Formation of the Matawan Group of Late Cretaceous age is exposed in the western part of the New Jeresy Coastal Plain along a northeast-southwest trending zone extending from Raritan Bay to Delaware Bay. In outcrop, in the northern part of the Coastal Plain, the Englishtown typically consists of a series of thin, cross-stratified, fine- to medium-grained lignitic quartz sand beds intercalated with thin beds of sandy silty clay and clayey silt, ranging in total thickness from about 140 feet (43 meters) near Raritan Bay to about 50 feet (15 meters) near Trenton. In the subsurface of the northern part of the Coastal Plain, the formation retains most of the lithologic characteristics displayed in outcrop. In northern and eastern Ocean County the Englishtown can be subdivided into three distinct lithologic units; upper and lower units of quartz sand with thin interbeds of dark sandy silt, separated by a thick sequence of sandy and clayey lignitic silt. The confined part of the aquifer in the Englishtown Formation is utilized as a source of water over an area of about 1,100 square miles (2,849 square kilometers) of the New Jersey Coastal Plain and is an important source of supply in Monmouth and northern Ocean Counties. The annual average rate of withdrawal from the aquifer in the two-county area increased from 5.5 million gallons per day (0.24 cubic meters per second) in 1959 to 9.5 million gallons per day (0.4 cubic meters per second) in 1970. Water levels in parts of this area were declining 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.6 meters) per year as of 1970 and they declined as much as 140 feet (43 meters) between 1959 and 1970 near pumping centers. The aquifer transmissivity ranges from 2,400 square feet per day to 650 square feet per day (223 square meters per day to 60 square meters per day); the estimated hydraulic conductivity ranges from about 11 feet per day to 20 feet per day (3.3 meters per day to 6.1 meters per day); and the storage coefficient ranges from 8 x 10 -5 to 3 x 10 -4 . The underlying and overlying confining beds, which have an average thickness of 200 feet (61 meters) and 40 feet (12 meters), respectively, have vertical hydraulic conductivities on the order of 1 x 10 -5 feet per day (3 x 10 -6 meters per day) and specific storage on the order of 8 x 10 -5 ft -1 (2.4 x 10 -5 m -1 ). The Englishtown aquifer is an integral part of the complex multi- aquifer system of the New Jersey Coastal Plain. The withdrawal of water from the Englishtown aquifer has had a marked effect on the water level in the overlying Moutn Laurel aquifer, and these effects will continue so long as the water level in the Englishtown continues to decline. Any increase in the development of the Mount Laurel aquifer that reduces the volume of leakage to the Englishtown will cause an increase in the rate of water-level decline in the Englishtown even with no increase in direct withdrawals. The interrelationship and interdependency between pumping stresses in individual aquifers within the complex Coastal Plain aquifer sytem must be recognized and appreciated, and the hydrodynamics of all parts of the system must be considered if reliable predictions of aquifer response to these stresses are to be made. Such predictions generally require a simulation model analysis of the system.

New Jersey↗

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 (Antarctic Peninsula): Sedimentology of glacially influenced continental margin topsets and foresets

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 (February-April 1998) drilled two sites (Sites 1097 and 1103) on the outer Antarctic Peninsula Pacific continental shelf. Recovered strata are no older than late Miocene or early Pliocene (<4.6 Ma). Recovery at shallow depths in loosely consolidated and iceberg-turbated bouldery sediment was poor but improved with increasing depth and consolidation to allow description of lithofacies and biofacies and interpretation of depositional environment. Site 1097 lies on the outer shelf within Marguerite Trough which is a major outlet for ice expanding seaward from the Antarctic Peninsula and reached a maximum depth drilled of 436.6 m below the sea floor (mbsf). Seismic stratigraphic data show flat-lying upper strata resting on strata that dip gently seaward. Uppermost strata, to a depth of 150 mbsf, were poorly recovered, but data suggest they consist of diamictites containing reworked and abraded marine microfauna. This interval is interpreted as having been deposited largely as till produced by subglacial cannibalization of marine sediments (deformation till) recording ice sheet expansion across the shelf. Underlying gently dipping strata show massive, stratified and graded diamictite facies with common bioturbation and slump stuctures that are interbedded with laminated and massive mudstones with dropstones. The succession contains a well-preserved in situ marine microfauna typical of open marine and proglacial marine environments. The lower gently dipping succession at Site 1097 is interpreted as a complex of sediment gravity flows formed of poorly sorted glacial debris. Site 1103 was drilled in that part of the continental margin that shows uppermost flat-lying continental shelf topsets overlying steeper dipping slope foresets seaward of a structural mid-shelf high. Drilling reached a depth of 363 mbsf with good recovery in steeply dipping continental slope foreset strata. Foreset strata are dominated by massive and chaotically stratified diamictites interbedded with massive and graded sandstones and mudstones. The sedimentary record and seismic stratigraphy is consistent with deposition on a continental slope from debris flows and turbidity currents released from a glacial source. Data from Sites 1097 and 1103 suggest the importance of aggradation of the Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf by tilt deposition and progradation of the slope by mass flow. This may provide a model for the interpretation of Palaeozoic and Proterozoic glacial successions that accumulated on glacially influenced continental margins.

Marine Geology↗

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗

Palynological record from the North Atlantic region at 3 Ma: Vegetational distribution during a period of global warmth

Pollen assemblages from five mid-Pliocene, deep-marine and shallow-marine sites in the North Atlantic Ocean region were analyzed quantitatively to estimate vegetational composition and terrestrial paleoclimates during a time interval centered at about 3 Ma. Three subarctic sites (58–67°N latitude) from the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland, and the Labrador Sea yielded pollen assemblages characteristic of mixed conifer-hardwood vegetation; these assemblages have no close modern analogs, but the most similar modern vegetation is that of the Tsuga (hemlock)-northern hardwood forests of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia (45–50°N). The presence of such vegetation at these sites indicates mid-Pliocene January temperatures from 4 to 10°C warmer than today and a northward shift of the deciduous forest zone into areas presently occupied by boreal forests. Pollen assemblages from the mid-latitude (36°N) Yorktown Formation site in southeastern Virginia, USA represent Quercus-Carya-Pinus (oak-hickory-pine) forests, similar to those presently occupying much of the Atlantic coastal plain of the United States. Modern analogs for this site are located off the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, indicating mid-Pliocene January temperatures 3–5°C warmer than today. In southwestern Florida (27°N), pollen assemblages from the mid-Pliocene Pincrest Beds are representative of pine-dominated communities, similar to Pinus palustris/P. ellittii forests (longleaf/slash pine) growing in Florida today. Close modern analogs for the Pinecrest Beds are located at numerous sites around the Florida peninsula, indicating mid-Pliocene temperatures about the same as today for this region. These sites show a gradient from much higher than present temperatures at high latitudes to little change from present temperatures at low latitudes and low elevations; a similar pattern is shown by mid-Pliocene sea-surface and isotopic data. Such a gradient also is consistent with the northward migration of the boreal forest zone, covering sites as far north as Meighen and Banks Islands, a northward shift of the deciduous-boreal forest boundary in both North America and Europe, and little change in vegetational distribution in low elevation sites in subtropical latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm interval. Atmospheric temperaturs estimated from vegetational distributions indicate a Pliocene to modern temperature anomaly of a similar pattern and magnitude to that indicated by sea-surface temperatures. These data are most consistent with current general circulation model simulations of climate changes in response to increased meridional heat transport.

Florida, Newfoundland and Labrador, Virginia↗

Three-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport by waves and currents in a shallow estuary

A suspended sediment transport model is implemented in the unstructured‐grid SUNTANS model and applied to study fine‐grained sediment transport in South San Francisco Bay. The model enables calculation of suspension of bottom sediment based on combined forcing of tidal currents and wind waves. We show that accurate results can be obtained by employing two‐size classes which are representative of microflocs and macroflocs in the Bay. A key finding of the paper is that the critical calibration parameter is the ratio of the erosion of the microflocs to macroflocs from the bed. Different values of this erosion ratio are needed on the shallow shoals and deeper channels because of the different nature of the sediment dynamics in these regions. Application of a spatially variable erosion ratio and critical shear stress for erosion is shown to accurately reproduce observed suspended sediment concentration at four‐field sites located along a cross‐channel transect. The results reveal a stark contrast between the behavior of the suspended sediment concentration on the shoals and in the deep channel. Waves are shown to resuspend sediments on the shoals, although tidal and wind‐generated currents are needed to mix the thin wave‐driven suspensions into the water column. The contribution to the suspended sediment concentration in the channel by transport from the shoals is similar in magnitude to that due to local resuspension. However, the local contribution is in phase with strong bottom currents which resuspend the sediments, while the contribution from the shoals peaks during low‐water slack tide.

San Francisco Bay↗

Aeromagnetic study of the midcontinent gravity high of central United States

A composite map of detailed aeromagnetic surveys over the midcontinent gravity high provides coverage of the 600-mi-long buried belt of mafic rocks of the Keweenawan Series from their outcrop localities in Minnesota and Wisconsin through Iowa and Nebraska. A map of the subsurface extent of the mafic rocks, based on the intricate magnetic patterns, shows that the rocks form a long, semicontinuous block, averaging 40 mi wide and consisting mainly of a sequence of layered flows. This sequence is probably fault-bounded and has been tilted up along the margins, where the linearity of the anomalies indicates steeper dips. The associated clastic rocks, indicated by a smoother magnetic pattern, occur in basins along both sides of the mafic belt and in grabens and a series of axial basins on the upper surface of the block. The well-defined outliers of flows marginal to the main block and the truncation of some of the outermost flow units along a diagonal boundary striking at an angle to them suggest that the present boundaries of the block are postdepositional structural features. The basins and the edges of the block appear to have controlled later, largely vertical movement in the overlying Paleozoic and younger sedimentary cover. Calculated models based on coincident magnetic and detailed gravity profiles along typical cross sections of the midcontinent gravity high show that the block of mafic rocks is steep-sided and as much as several miles thick. The free-air gravity anomaly, which consists of a large positive maximum flanked by minima, averages very close to zero, indicating that this major crustal feature is regionally compensated, although locally each of its components shows a large departure from equilibrium. Remanent magnetization is a primary factor in the interpretation of the magnetic data. Magnetic property studies of Keweenawan mafic rocks in the Lake Superior region show that remanent magnetization may be five times the magnetization induced by the present Earth's field and differs from it radically in direction. This magnetization was acquired before the flows were tilted into their present positions. A computed magnetic profile shows that a trough of flows with such a magnetization and inward-dipping limbs can account for the observed persistent lows along the western edge of the block, the relatively low magnetic values along the axis of the block, and the large positive anomaly along the eastern side of the block. Flows as much as 1 mi thick near the base of the sequence have a remanent magnetization with a nearly opposite polarity. This reverse polarity has been measured on both sides of Lake Superior and is probably also present farther south, particularly in Iowa where the outer units of the block in an area north of Des Moines give rise to a prominent magnetic low. The axis of this long belt of Keweenawan mafic rocks cuts discordantly through the prevailing east-west-trending fabric of the older Precambrian terrane from southern Kansas to Lake Superior. This belt has several major left-lateral offsets, one of which produces a complete hiatus in the vicinity of the 40th parallel where an east-west transcontinental rift or fracture zone has been proposed. The axial basins of clastic rocks are outlined by linear magnetic anomalies and show a concordant relation to the structure of the mafic flows. These basins are oriented at an angle to the main axis, suggesting that the entire feature originated as a major rift composed of a series of short, linear, en echelon segments with offsets similar to the transform faults characterizing the present mid-ocean rift system. This midcontinent rift may well have been part of a Keweenawan global rift system with initial offsets consisting of transform faults along pre-existing fractures, but apparently it never fully developed laterally into an ocean basin, and the upwelling mafic material was localized along a relatively narrow belt.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California↗

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

The mountains ringing the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receive upwards of 4–8 m yr −1 of precipitation (Simpson et al.2005; Weingartner et al. 2005; O’Neel 2012), much of which runs off into productive coastal waters. The alpine landscape is heavily glacierized, and storage and turnover of water by glaciers substantially influences the regional surface water balance (Neal et al. 2010). In turn, the land-to-ocean flux of freshwater impacts the biogeochemistry, physical oceanography, freshwater and marine ecology of the downstream components of the GOA ecosystem (e.g., Royer et al. 2001; Hood and Scott 2008). In this way, the links between terrestrial and ocean ecosystems along the GOA have widespread impacts on regional socioeconomic issues including water and hydropower resources, fish populations, and sea level change (Dorava and Milner 2000; Royer and Grosch 2006; Cherry et al. 2010; Gardner et al. 2013). Moreover, predicting future changes in physical, chemical and biological processes in near-shore ecosystems along the GOA hinges, in part, on developing a robust understanding of water storage and transfer by glaciers through streams to the ocean. Glacierized basins (i.e. presently ice covered as opposed to glaciated, or historically ice covered) are very efficient producers of runoff, yielding 2–10 times greater runoff than similarly sized, non-glacierized basins (Mayo 1984). The unique energy balance that characterizes these basins (Jansson et al. 2003; Hock 2005) results in substantial alterations to streamflow, even when fractional ice coverage is very small (Stahl and Moore 2006). Consistent and precise treatment of glacier runoff is key to accurate assessment of hydrologic, ecological and socioeconomic impacts, but previously used definitions for glacier runoff are variable. They include: 1) meltwater produced as negative annual mass balance (e.g., Fountain and Tangborn 1985); 2) storage changes in the monthly water budget, where solid precipitation is balanced by melt and evaporation (Huss 2011, concept #2); 3) meltwater derived from melting ice only (irrespective of melting snow or mass balance) (Nolin et al. 2010; Huss 2011, concept #1); 4) all meltwater derived from the glacier surface (Cogley et al. 2011, meltwater runoff); 5) total runoff from the glacier surface (meltwater runoff plus rain on the glacier) (Neal et al. 2010). Total glacier runoff (Definitions 4 and 5 above) includes a contribution from annual mass balance, i.e. the sum of accumulation and ablation through a mass balance year (Definition 1), or what has historically been referred to as the “net” balance (Cogley et al. 2011). Indeed, annual balance has been shown to be an important driver of streamflow trends in glacierized basins, with periods of persistent negative annual balance resulting in statistically significant increases in streamflow (e.g., Pellicciotti et al. 2010). However, in maritime climates, anomalies in glacier runoff can be disconnected from annual balance because of the high variability in winter precipitation. For example, positive anomalies in winter accumulation can result in elevated levels of glacier runoff in times of positive annual mass balance (Thayyen and Gergan 2010). Quantifying the impacts of changing glacier geometries (annual balance) on glacier runoff is essential for predicting future changes in streamflow in glacierized basins. However, determining the role that this component plays in total glacier runoff (Definition 5) requires consistent measurements of seasonal (or shorter period) mass balances, measurements of precipitation at multiple locations within a basin, and streamflow measurements in close proximity to a glacier’s terminus. Practical and logistical challenges associated with assembling such data sets typically preclude such partitioning. As a result, most analyses of the relationship between annual mass balance and streamflow rely on some component of model output to compute glacier runoff (e.g. Huss et al. 2008; Kaser et al. 2010). Ultimately, developing an understanding of how total glacier runoff will change in the future is critical for predicting downstream ecological impacts associated with changes in riverine fluxes of water, sediment, and solutes (e.g., metals and nutrients) to near-shore coastal ecosystems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Alaska↗

Sea lamprey mark type, wounding rate, and parasite-host preference and abundance relationships for lake trout and other species in Lake Ontario

We examined how the frequency of attacks by Sea Lamprey on fishes in Lake Ontario varied in response to Sea Lamprey abundance and preferred host abundance (Lake Trout >432mm). For this analysis we assembled seven data sets. Two fishery independent surveys for Lake Trout: US Geological Survey (USGS)/New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) south shore September gillnet assessment of adult Lake Trout (USGS/NYSDEC SGNS)( Lantry and Lantry 2011); and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) monthly June-November community index gillnetting in northeastern Lake Ontario (OMNR CIS) (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011). One angler survey: NYSDEC April-September Fishing Boat Survey data collected along the south shore for Chinook and Coho salmon, and Rainbow and Brown trout (NYSDEC FBS) ( Lantry and Eckert 2012). Two spawning run datasets: OMNR north shore data including spring spawning runs of Rainbow Trout in the Ganaraska River and electroshocking data for fall spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon in the Credit River (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011); and NYSDEC data from the Salmon River on the southeastern shore including October spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon. One Sea Lamprey spawning survey: Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)/US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) data for spawning-phase Sea Lamprey abundance collected from known spawning streams distributed throughout the Lake Ontario drainage basin (Mullet et al. 2003). One assessment of the abundance of dead Lake Trout: USGS/NYSDEC October-November bottom trawl collection of Lake Trout carcasses (Schneider et al. 1996). Annual patterns in A1, A2 and A3 wound stages did not track well in plots of wounding rates for the USGS/NYSDEC SGNS and correlations between A1 and later stages did not exist. A1 rates were not correlated to either Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey numbers when considered alone, but were strongly correlated to the ratio between Sea Lamprey numbers and Lake Trout abundance (parasite/host ratio). While A2 and A3 rates were correlated to each other, neither was consistently correlated to any of the Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey abundance parameters and sums of A1 to A3 rates did not improve correlations over those for A1 rates considered alone. Our analysis of the strain-specific susceptibility of Lake Trout to attack by Sea Lampreys extended the previous Schneider et al. (1996) analysis of three strains (SUP, CWL, and SEN) and 11 years of data 1982-1992 to an analysis of seven strains (SUP, CWL, SEN, JEN, LEW, ONT, and OXS) and two groups of unmarked fish (1983-1995 and 1996-2010) and included 18 more years of data through 2010. The susceptibility to attack for CWLs and SENs were below SUPs and nearly identical to the earlier values, new values for LEWs were greater than SUPS and values of unmarked Lake Trout prior to 1996 were unexpectedly greater than SUPs. By reexamining the Schneider et al. (1996) regression relationship between A1 wounding on Lake Trout and the incidence of Lake Trout carcasses recovered in fall bottom trawls (including three additional years of data), and substituting A1 wounding rate for total numbers of A1s observed which was used as the independent variable in the previous version, we were able to increase the variance explained by the relationship from an r2 of 0.60 to 0.88. Healing rate of wounds was explored by examining the monthly incidence of A1 and A2 wounds on Lake Trout from the OMNR CIS. Because wounding intensity varied between years and monthly sample size was frequently low, the ratio of A2 to A1s wounds was used to index how wounds accumulated or disappeared from the Lake Trout populations across seasons. The A2/A1 ratio decreased between June/July and October. A simple wounding model for Lake Trout was constructed to simulate the pattern of ratios by inflicting wounds on the population each month according to a predetermined distribution and including parameters for lethality (fixed distribution) and healing rate of A1 and A2 wounds (discretely varied between simulations). The best simulated representation (ratio size and monthly pattern) of the OMNR CIS data came from an A1 healing rate of 0.5 months and an A2 rate of 2 months. To examine whether alternate hosts provided reliable data to index damage caused by Sea Lampreys we compared September values of abundance and A1 wounding rates on Lake Trout, Sea Lamprey abundance, and the parasite/host ratio with NYSDEC Creel data for observations of Sea lampreys attached to sport-caught salmonids and to wounding observations for salmonids sampled in OMNR and NYSDEC spawning run assessments. Attachment frequency on NYSDEC Creel Chinook Salmon, Brown Trout, and Rainbow Trout were strongly correlated to all measures of Lake Trout abundance and wounding and to the parasite/host ratio. Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon wounding observations for the NYSDEC Salmon River spawning run assessments and Rainbow Trout from the OMNR Ganaraska River spawning run assessment were strongly correlated to wounding measures for nearly all salmonids and to the parasite/host ratio.

Lake Ontario↗

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗

The Missoula and Bonneville floods—A review of ice-age megafloods in the Columbia River basin

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington State, USA, brought megafloods to the scientific forefront. A 30,000-km2 landscape of coulees and cataracts carved into the region’s loess-covered basalt attests to overwhelming volumes of energetic water. The scarred landscape, garnished by huge boulder bars and far-travelled ice-rafted erratics, spurred J Harlen Bretz’s vigorously disputed flood hypothesis in the 1920s. First known as the Spokane flood, it was rebranded the Missoula flood once understood that the water came from glacial Lake Missoula, formed when the Purcell Trench lobe of the last-glacial Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork valley in northwestern Idaho with ice a kilometer thick. Bretz’s flood evidence in the once-remote Channeled Scabland, widely seen and elaborated by the 1950s, eventually swayed consensus for cataclysmic flooding. Missoula flood questions then turned to some that continue today: how many? when? how big? what routes? what processes? The Missoula floods passed through eastern Washington by a multitude of valleys, coulees and scabland tracts, some contemporaneously, some sequentially. Which routings and their timing depended on the positions of various lobes of the multi-pronged Cordilleran ice sheet and the erosional development of the channels themselves. The first floods mostly followed the big bend of Columbia valley looping through north-central Washington. But the south-advancing Okanogan ice lobe soon blocked that path, forming long-lasting glacial Lake Columbia in the impounded Columbia valley. Missoula floods into this lake were diverted south out of the Columbia valley and into eastern Washington coulees and scabland tracts. At least four floods entered Moses Coulee, but then as the Okanogan lobe advanced over and blocked the head of that coulee, more eastern paths took the water, including Grand Coulee and the Telford-Crab-Creek and Cheney-Palouse scabland tracts. Flood routing also depended on the erosion of the coulees. At some point, headward erosion of upper Grand Coulee lowered the divide saddle between the west-running Columbia valley and the deep and wide Grand Coulee heading southwest. Still uncertain is when this happened and the consequences with respect to the stage and extent of glacial Lake Columbia and to flood access to the other, higher, flood routes. Downstream, all flood routes converged onto Pasco Basin, flowed through Wallula Gap and the Columbia River Gorge into the Pacific Ocean, following submarine canyons and depositing sediment layers on abyssal plains. Stratigraphic studies indicate dozens—likely more than a hundred—separate Missoula floods during the last glacial period. Over the length of the flood route, backwater areas and depositional basins preserve multiple flood beds, many of which are separated by signs of time, including volcanic ash layers and soil development in subaerial environments; and varve-like beds and pelagic mud layers in lacustrine and marine settings. Evidence also comes from the glacial Lake Missoula basin, where stratigraphy indicates dozens of filling and emptying cycles. Varve counts in conjunction of radiocarbon dating and paleomagnetic secular variation show the repeated filling-and-release cycles of glacial Lake Missoula had intervals possibly as long as 100 years early in the lake’s history but diminished to just one or two years for the last few floods. This behavior accords with jökulhlaup-style floods released by subglacial drainage from a self-dumping ice-dammed lake. But not yet clear is whether such a mechanism applies to all the floods or if some emptied more cataclysmically as hypothesized by some. Radiocarbon dating of sparse organic materials remains key to defining flood chronology but has been lately bolstered by analyses of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides and optically stimulated luminescence. Varve counts and paleomagnetic secular variation studies help to define durations and intervals represented by sequences of flood beds. The ~16 ka Mount St. Helens Set S tephra is commonly interbedded within flood deposits, enabling correlation of deposits among sites. Tephra from the 13.7–13.4 ka eruption of Glacier Peak overlies all glacial Lake Missoula and Missoula flood deposits, defining an end time. Overall conclusions are that glacial Lake Missoula was extant and producing floods for at least 3–4 ky during 20–14 ka. At least ~75 floods preceded Mount St Helens Set S, followed by 30 or more after the tephra fall. Most floods entered glacial Lake Columbia, impounded by the Okanogan lobe, for 2–5 ky between about 18.5 and 15 ka. Glacial Lake Columbia outlived Lake Missoula by >200–400 yr but may have been born later since at least one flood came down the Columbia valley before the Okanogan ice lobe blocked the Columbia valley at 18.5–18 ka. The maximum extent of the Okanogan and Purcell Trench lobes, many Missoula floods, substantial erosion of upper Grand Coulee, and the widespread tephra falls from Mount St. Helens eruptions all happened about 17–15 ka. People, in the area since 16.6–15.3 ka, almost certainly witnessed the last of the Missoula floods and later large floods from other ice-dammed lakes in the Columbia River basin. Quantitative flow analyses give peak discharge estimates and support understanding of erosional and depositional processes. The first flow assessments were simple cross-section calculations but recent assessments employ two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The general finding is that emplacement of the maximum stage evidence requires about 20 million m3/s near the Lake Missoula outlet and about 5–15 million m3/s through Wallula Gap and downstream in the Columbia River Gorge. These hydraulic analyses raise still-unresolved questions regarding canyon erosion and possible additional water sources. The large Pleistocene Bonneville flood entered the Columbia River system from the southeast from pluvial Lake Bonneville, the Pleistocene predecessor to Great Salt Lake in the eastern Great Basin. During the last glacial, the lake basin filled, covering >50,000 km2 with 10,400 km3 of water before reaching its maximum possible stage governed by Red Rock Pass, the lowest divide separating the basin from the Snake River basin to the north. The overtopping lake rapidly incised 108–125 m into the Red Rock Pass outlet, spilling half of its total lake volume. G.K. Gilbert described the essential sequence in the 1870s, but the flood was mostly forgotten until the late 1950s when Harold Malde linked the spectacular scabland topography and bouldery “melon gravel” on the Snake River Plain to the Lake Bonneville overflow. The Bonneville flood appears to have been a singular event at about 18 ka. No evidence of multiple or pre-last-glacial spillovers has yet been found. Its total volume was about twice that of a maximum Lake Missoula flood yet its peak discharge was ~1 million m3/s, less than a tenth of the largest Missoula floods. Its comparatively simple flow path and much steadier flow make the Bonneville flood ideal for new studies of erosional and depositional processes. At least two floods seem to have passed down the Columbia valley after the last of the Missoula floods, including a large flood about ~14 ka likely from cataclysmic demise of the thinning Okanogan ice lobe dam impounding glacial Lake Columbia. Floods from earlier glacial ages left scant yet clear evidence in the Channeled Scabland and Columbia valley. But their source, timing, and magnitudes are little understood. Some deposits are paleomagnetically reversed, thus older than ~800 ka. Last-glacial floods and perhaps older ones affected the Snake River Plain, some likely sourced in lakes dammed by alpine glaciers in central Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Quantifying sea otter abundance, distribution, habitat use, and foraging intake in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Following near extirpation from the fur trade, sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) have returned to occupy lower Cook Inlet since the 1950s, or earlier, with numbers increasing to ~11,000 and ~9,000 on the west and east side, respectively, by 2017. Northward range expansion on the west side has been negligible for decades with few animals found north of Kamishak Bay, while northward expansion on the east side has been more pronounced in recent decades. The reasons for these contrasting distribution patterns are not certain. Possible explanations for lack of expansion on the west side included 1) poor sea otter habitat north of Kamishak Bay; 2) adequate habitat north of Kamishak Bay but no incentive for sea otters to move north because of abundant food in Kamishak Bay, and/or sea otters discouraged from moving north of Kamishak Bay; 3) seasonal ice formation; or 4) seasonal presence of killer whales. This project was designed to document current sea otter abundance and distribution in lower Cook Inlet, including seasonal variation, and evaluate drivers of habitat use and foraging conditions, including how these overlap with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Lease Sale blocks. We found that the probability of sea otter presence in lower Cook Inlet was significantly related to depth and distance from shore with the highest probabilities of sea otter presence in areas ~7–8 kilometers (km) from shore in water ~20–30 meters (m) deep. Historical survey data suggest sea otter distribution has not changed dramatically since 2002, and while we detected significant seasonal changes including due to presence of heavy sea ice, the seasonal changes were modest and primarily related to locations with consistent winter ice formation on the west side of lower Cook Inlet. Overall, throughout the year, sea otters appeared to be utilizing most of the habitat within the 40-m depth contour on the east side of lower Cook Inlet, including Kachemak Bay. Sea otters on the west side reside largely within Kamishak Bay. Because of the shallow bathymetry of lower Cook Inlet, sea otters consistently occurred farther offshore than in many other areas of Alaska. The presence of sea otters, including females with pups, in these offshore waters indicates that sea otters can forage productively in these open water areas. Importantly, we documented that sea otters, including females with pups, occurred in most of the eastern BOEM lease blocks including the original Lease Sale 244 blocks 7064, 7114, 6162, 6310, 6360, 6410, 6458 and 6457. The relinquishments for these 7 leases were effective September 17, 2024: OCS-Y-02434 (block # 7064), OCS-Y-02435 (7114), OCS-Y-02436 (6162), OCS-Y-02438 (6357), OCS-Y-02442 (6407), OCS-Y02446 (6457), OCS-Y-02447 (6458) https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/environment/Map%20of%20Active%20Leases%20 Cook%20Inlet%20OCS_0.pdf Regarding differential northward expansion on the east and west side of lower Cook Inlet, we found that wind and water circulation patterns make winter sea ice more prominent on the west side, but this had minimal effects on sea otter distribution. In addition, although there have been observations of killer whale ( Orcinus orca ) predation on sea otters in Cook Inlet, we did not see behavioral or distributional evidence that it was prevalent enough to have strong effects on sea otter habitat use. Benthic surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) indicated that epibenthic substrate and biological community heterogeneity differed between areas with and without otters, suggesting that these factors may explain the current distribution of otters within lower Cook Inlet. However, ROV surveys cannot assess infaunal prey abundance, making assessments of the role of prey availability difficult. The existence of a healthy Pacific razor clam ( Siliqua patula ) fishery along western lower Cook Inlet along the Lake Clark coast north of Kamishak Bay suggests there may still be a resource base for eventual expansion of sea otters into this area. Our shore-based forage observations indicated that sea otters exist near carrying capacity densities relative to nearshore prey resources. However, our distribution model suggests the bulk of the population lives offshore beyond our ability to observe their feeding activity. The fact that sea otters are a consistent presence in offshore areas suggests that prey resources in these areas were relatively abundant in comparison to nearshore prey resources, making foraging in offshore areas, with water depths of 0–40 m, energetically profitable. Prey types in these offshore areas of lower Cook Inlet likely included epifauna such as crabs and large urchins, in addition to infaunal clams based on the soft substrate habitat types that characterize lower Cook Inlet. Collectively, our results suggest that sea otters occupy most areas of lower Cook Inlet with appropriate benthic habitat types and prey resources, which includes areas within BOEM Lease Sale blocks. With the exception of the Lake Clark coast, sea otters may be approaching a food- and habitat-limited distribution and carrying capacity, suggesting that the current status of sea otters in lower Cook Inlet is likely to remain similar in the absence of significant changes to prey, habitat, predation, or anthropogenic disturbance.

Alaska↗