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Rainfall thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation vary with short-duration rainfall climatology

The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris-flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff-generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris-flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short-duration rainfall-intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much-needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field-based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long-term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris-flow likelihood.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States

pySATSI: A Python package for computing focal mechanism stress inversions

We introduce pySATSI, a Python package for computing earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions. This algorithm can handle a wide variety of types of stress inversion problems with a single script and can duplicate many capabilities of preceding methodologies. We also add new capabilities that include spatiotemporally variable inversion grids, damped stress estimates for clusters with few or no focal mechanisms, and variable fault‐plane ambiguities that the user can assign to individual events. In addition, we added the ability to use damped stress inversions with fault‐plane ambiguity probabilities that are weighted by fault instabilities. Our algorithm is computationally efficient with faster runtimes than previous algorithms, scales well for large datasets, and can be easily parallelized.

Seismological Research Letters

Shallow lake, strong shake: Record of seismically triggered lacustrine sedimentation from the 1959 M7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake within Henrys Lake, Idaho

We investigate a shallow lake basin for evidence of a large historic intraplate earthquake in western North America. Henrys Lake, Idaho is an atypical candidate for a lacustrine paleoseismic study given its shallow depth (~7 m) and low relief (≤2° slopes ). Here, we test the earthquake-recording capacity of this basin type by showing sedimentological evidence of the 1959 M7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake within sediment cores, using anthropogenically produced 137 Cs activity to constrain timing. In addition to expanding the morphologic range of basins targeted for lacustrine paleoseismic studies, this work has implications for sediment response in dam-enhanced basins. Lack of sedimentological evidence for other earthquakes coupled with radiocarbon chronology reveals that the 1959 event is the only clearly recorded earthquake within Henrys Lake since the mid-Holocene. Henrys Lake offers a proxy for paleo-earthquake signatures within similar lacustrine environments and underscores the importance of further paleoseismic studies in the region.

Idaho

High-pass corner frequency selection and review tool for use in ground-motion processing

Raw seismological waveform data contain noise from the instrument’s surroundings and the instrument itself that can dominate recordings at low and high frequencies. To use these data in ground‐motion modeling, the effects of noise on the signals must be reduced and the signals’ usable frequency range identified. We present automated procedures to efficiently reduce low‐frequency noise that are implemented in the software package gmprocess. These procedures check for, and as needed remove, low‐frequency artifacts in the displacement record using polynomial fits, which can be used in combination with existing signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR)‐based corner‐frequency selection procedures. The automated selections are then efficiently verified and refined using a graphical user interface (GUI) that plots relevant ground‐motion time series and spectra and tracks modifications to signal processing parameters. We demonstrate these procedures using recordings from the 2020 M 5.1 Sparta, North Carolina, and the 2013 M 4.7 southern Ontario earthquakes. Data processed with the SNR‐only and polynomial criteria for these events contain displacement artifacts in 37% and 23% of processed traces, respectively. Records with remaining artifacts are corrected manually using the GUI. These processing steps illustrate the workflow for efficient data processing with quality control.

Seismological Research Letters

Satellite imagery of the north-central Gulf of Mexico, June 1993-May 1997

This CD contains imagery collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellites. The AVHRR provides almost daily coverage of a site at a resolution of approximately 1 km. The data types included are sea surface temperature (SST), water reflectance (REF), and a false-color infrared overview (FCI).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi

Water table rise sustains carbon release from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes: An intact soil core study

Wetland-dominated landscapes influence carbon cycling through their potential to act as both carbon sinks and sources. Wetlands in low-relief landscapes have dynamic terrestrial-aquatic interfaces that change seasonally with variable surface water and groundwater levels. However, few studies have directly quantified dissolved organic matter (DOM) release and greenhouse gas (CO 2 , CH 4 ) fluxes from wetland soils along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces as they are seasonally re-saturated by groundwater. To estimate groundwater-mediated soil DOM and gas fluxes, we performed laboratory simulations of vertical groundwater rise on intact soil cores collected from four Delmarva bay wetlands located in the Mid-Atlantic United States. At each wetland, one core was collected from within the wetland basin and the other from the transitional zone at the basin edge. Cores were re-saturated with groundwater over 15 days and then kept fully saturated for an additional 25 days. Source groundwater, soil porewater, and exfiltrated surface water samples were collected and analyzed for pH, ORP, DOM concentration, and DOM optical indices. In both the wetland and transition zone cores, porewater DOM concentrations increased over the wet up and were sustained during prolonged saturation. Optical indices shifted from recently produced, microbial-like signatures towards aromatic, terrestrial-like signatures. Fluxes of CO 2 decreased as the duration of soil saturation increased and soil cores switched from CH 4 sinks to sources upon full soil core saturation. Results indicate that groundwater rise sustains carbon mobilization from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes, emphasizing the need to understand how climate-driven changes to groundwater dynamics may affect carbon fluxes along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

Delaware, Maryland

Key minerals in energy transmission

The electrical grid relies on minerals with unique properties to transform, transmit, and convert electricity. Transmission needs are growing—to support the expansion of data centers and link diverse energy resources into the grid. This expansion will require greater quantities of minerals. Although some minerals are produced in the United States, the United States relies on imports for others. This infographic shows the key minerals that support energy transmission, and how reliant the United States is on imports for these minerals.

General Information Product

Do bighorn sheep use desert tortoise burrow spoil piles as mineral licks in southern California?

In a previous study, bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) were periodically photographed by trail cameras when they visited desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) burrows in the San Bernardino Mountains near Palm Springs, California, USA. The authors suggested that bighorn sheep may utilize the excavated spoil material from burrows as a mineral lick. To test that supposition, we collected soil samples from the spoil piles and undisturbed surface soil up to 1 m away at two desert tortoise study sites with bighorn sheep at the aforementioned site and another nearby site. We hypothesized that sodium concentrations would be greater in spoil than in nearby surface soil samples. Common major cations were quantified in soil samples using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry following microwave-assisted digestion to solubilize the fraction of elements that could become biologically or environmentally available. Mean sodium concentrations were greater in burrow spoil samples than in undisturbed soil samples at both sites, likely due to aqueous leaching of sodium from surface to subsurface soil horizons. Although we did not collect evidence of geophagy by bighorn sheep, the behavior is well known. However, trail camera photographs of bighorn sheep with their head next to the entrance of tortoise burrows suggests that they may periodically utilize sodium and other elements brought to the surface by desert tortoises that are otherwise unavailable to bighorn sheep on the surface.

California

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports

Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning

Earthquakes are a rapid-onset hazard where advance planning and learning plays a key role in mitigating injuries and death to individuals. Recent advances in earthquake detection have resulted in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These systems can provide advance warning to predetermined geographic regions that an earthquake is in progress, which may result in individuals receiving warning seconds before significant shaking is felt at their location. This additional time could allow individuals to take more effective protective actions during the immediate disaster. To demonstrate this, we created an agent-based simulation of a basic apartment that allowed us to randomly and repeatedly simulate an individual receiving and responding to an EEW message. The results of our preliminary simulation show that, in our study environment, earthquake early warning alerts have the potential to allow for sufficient time for individuals to take protective actions.

Washington

Flood-inundation maps for the Cuyahoga River in and near Independence, Ohio, 2024

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9.9-mile reach of the Cuyahoga River in and near Independence, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District Board of Trustees. Water-surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one-dimensional steady-state step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2024) stage-streamflow relation (rating curve 43.0) for the USGS streamgage 04208000, Cuyahoga River at Independence, Ohio. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 13 water-surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 14.00 to 26.00 feet. The flood stages range from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile. The flood-inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood mitigation strategies and to define flood hazard areas to protect life and property, to coordinate flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid postflood recovery efforts.

Ohio

Only very strong shaking can break a tree

A handful of credible accounts, both recent and historical, describe trees being broken during earthquakes. Apart from landslides and tsunamis, such accounts are uncommon, suggesting that trees break only when ground acceleration is extreme or when trees are especially vulnerable to breakage. Here, I consider the question: what ground acceleration is required to break a living tree? I present simplified first‐principles calculations, considering the properties of common trees, focusing on tall, thin trees that can be approximated as uniform vertical cantilevers. The results suggest that, possibly excepting tall trees with heavy canopies, standing trees can only be broken by shaking approaching or exceeding 1 g , as anticipated by the rarity of documented accounts of snapped trees. I briefly consider several well‐documented instances of tree damage during strong earthquakes, drawing inferences about local ground motions.

The Seismic Record

Unprecedented burning in tropical peatlands during the 20th century compared to the previous two millennia

Tropical peatland wildfire incidence has risen in recent decades, driven by drainage for land use and intensified by severe droughts with global climate change. These disturbances have altered vegetation structure, disrupted ecosystem functioning, and increased carbon emissions, particularly in Southeast Asia. However, the long-term history and characteristics of wildfires in tropical peatlands remain largely unknown. Here, we compiled fifty-eight macro-charcoal records from peatlands across the tropics, ranging from lowland forested to montane peatlands, to assess millennia-scale changes and controlling factors of tropical peatland burning. We divided the datasets into four main sub-regions: Neotropical, Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Australasian ecoregions to explore regional variability. Tropical peatlands had high burning levels between 0 and 850 ce , followed by a relatively low and stable period until a marked increase during the 20th century. The general trend in tropical peatland burning follows changes in global temperature, and climate variables that control the length and severity of drought events have a notable influence on peat burning before 1900 ce . During the 20th century, regional differences were observed, with declining fire trends in the Neotropical and Afrotropical regions and increasing fire trends in the Indomalayan and Australasian regions. This difference is likely attributable to human activities, and such intervention is also evident in palm swamps and hardwood swamps under similar wet, weakly seasonal climates. With the increase in anthropogenic pressures on peatlands and greater climate variability, future wildfires in peatlands are likely to become more frequent and widespread across all tropical ecoregions. Conservation and sustainable land-use practices could be used to mitigate and control peatland burning and protect these carbon-rich sinks.

Global Change Biology

Beaver dam analogs as nature-based solutions to mitigate snowpack loss in northern New Mexico

Reductions in snow have left many streams in northern New Mexico dry or with very low flows during the summer. Base flow, defined as the contribution of groundwater to streamflow, can sustain streamflow during the summer and during drought conditions. Beaver dam analogs can be used to “slow the flow,” or increase the infiltration of rain-based runoff to replenish shallow groundwater reservoirs and increase base flow and potentially increase summertime streamflow.

New Mexico

Relating glassy rind thicknesses to ambient air temperatures at the Lost Jim flow field in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska

The Lost Jim flow field, in the Imuruk Lake volcanic field, Alaska, extends west ~34 km from a single vent, crossing subarctic tundra and currently touches several lakes and streams. The weighted mean of five 36Cl cosmogenic exposure ages from the Lost Jim pāhoehoe flow is 7.73 ± 0.37 ka, indicating this eruption occurred substantially after the eruption of the underlying Camille flow, which was emplaced at 39.7 ± 1.3 ka. Paleoclimate records indicate the period when the Lost Jim flow field was emplaced was after deglaciation, and the climate was similar to today. We propose that the emplacement of lava in these cold subarctic conditions can lead to faster cooling of the lava surface compared to lava emplaced in warmer locations such as mid- latitude cold deserts. Glass abundance in the outermost rinds at the Lost Jim flow field was on average 74 % with 6.4 mm thick rims, compared to 60 % with 2.9 mm rims for cold mid-latitude desert samples. We interpret increased glass content as a proxy for rapid cooling likely occurring partly during winter. Glassiness values varied less across vent, margin, and mid-flow locations when compared to the mid-latitude flows suggesting the Lost Jim flow field was broadly impacted by the subarctic climate as opposed to responding to local microclimates. Our results indicate that lava glassiness may be a useful environmental indicator of cooler (in this case subarctic) conditions.

Alaska

Elastic stress coupling between supraglacial lakes

Supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain within hours of each other, leading to the hypothesis that stress transmission following one drainage may be sufficient to induce hydro-fracture-driven drainages of other nearby lakes. However, available observations characterizing drainage-induced stress perturbations have been insufficient to evaluate this hypothesis. Here, we use ice-sheet surface-displacement observations from a dense global positioning system array deployed in the Greenland Ice Sheet ablation zone to investigate elastic stress transmission between three neighboring supraglacial lake basins. We find that drainage of a central lake can place neighboring basins in either tensional or compressional stress relative to their hydro-fracture scarp orientations, either promoting or inhibiting hydro-fracture initiation beneath those lakes. For two lakes located within our array that drain close in time, we identify tensional surface stresses caused by ice-sheet uplift due to basal-cavity opening as the physical explanation for these lakes' temporally clustered hydro-fracture-driven drainages and frequent triggering behavior. However, lake-drainage-induced stresses in the up-flowline direction remain low beyond the margins of the drained lakes. This short stress-coupling length scale is consistent with idealized lake-drainage scenarios for a range of lake volumes and ice-sheet thicknesses. Thus, on elastic timescales, our observations and idealized-model results support a stress-transmission hypothesis for inducing hydro-fracture-driven drainage of lakes located within the region of basal cavity opening produced by the initial drainage, but refute this hypothesis for distal lakes.

JGR Earth Surface

Short-term sediment dispersal on a large retreating coastal river delta via 234Th and 7Be sediment geochronology: The Mississippi River Delta Front

Many Mississippi River Delta studies have shown recent declines in fluvial sediment load from the river and associated land loss. In contrast, recent sedimentary processes on the subaqueous delta are less documented. To help address this knowledge gap, multicores were collected offshore from the three main river outlets at water depths of 25–280 m in June 2017 just after the peak river discharge period, with locations selected based on 2017 U.S. Geological Survey seabed mapping. The coring locations included the undisturbed upper foreset, mudflow lobes, gullies, and the undisturbed prodelta. Nine multicores were analyzed for Beryllium-7 activity, and four cores were analyzed for excess Thorium-234 activity via gamma spectrometry, granulometry and X-radiography. Our results indicate a general trend of declining 7 Be and 234 Th activities and inventories with increasing distance from sources and in deeper water. The core X-radiographs are graded from the predominantly physically stratified nearshore to the more bioturbated offshore, consistent with the sedimentation patterns. Sediment focusing assessed via the 7 Be and 234 Th sediment inventories shows preferential sedimentation in gully and lobe environments, whereas the upper foreset and prodelta focusing factors are relatively depleted. Overall, short-term sediment deposition from the main fluvial source remains active offshore from all three major river outlets, despite the overall declining river load.

Louisiana