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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources

The Emerson Lake Body: A link between the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes, southern California, as inferred from gravity and magnetic anomalies

Gravity and magnetic data indicate a mafic crustal heterogeneity that lies between the Hector Mine 16 October 1999 ( M w 7.1) and Landers 28 June 1992 ( M w 7.3) epicenters. The aftershocks and ruptures of these two events avoided the interior of the body. Two- and three-dimensional modeling of the potential-field anomalies shows that the source, here named the Emerson Lake body (ELB), extends to a depth of approximately 15 km. The source of the gravity and magnetic anomaly is most likely Jurassic diorite because exposures of these rocks coincide with both gravity and magnetic highs west of Emerson Lake. Seismic tomography also shows higher velocities within the region of the ELB. We propose that the ELB was an important influence on the rupture geometry of the Landers and Hector Mine ruptures and that the ELB may have played a role in transferring of stress from the Landers earthquake to the Hector Mine hypocenter. Seismicity before the Landers earthquake also tended to avoid the ELB, suggesting that the ELB affects how strain is distributed in this part of the Mojave Desert. Thus, faults within the body should have limited rupture sizes and lower seismic hazard than faults bounding or outside this mafic crustal heterogeneity.

California↗

Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of which may occur closer to populated areas and may be large enough to cause damage. When a large magnitude event strikes a region, the chance that aftershocks will cause damage can be significant as was observed after the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Canterbury earthquakes (e.g., damage caused by M w 6.6 April 11, 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake following Tohoku earthquake or by M w 6.3 February 22, 2011 Christchurch earthquake following Canterbury earthquake). Aftershock events may further damage already damaged buildings, thereby further complicating assessments of risk to the built environment. In this paper, the issue of aftershock risk is addressed by summarizing current research regarding: (1) aftershock hazard, (2) structural fragility/vulnerability before and after the mainshock, and (3) change in risk due to aftershocks.

Conference Paper↗

Recent advances in characterizing the crustal stress field and future applications of stress data: Perspectives from North America

The stress field controls patterns of crustal deformation, including which faults are likeliest to cause earthquakes or transmit fluids. Since the 1950s, maps of maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientations have advanced dramatically, and the style of faulting (relative principal stress magnitudes) has recently been mapped in some regions as well. This perspectives paper summarizes developments in characterizing stress orientations and (relative) magnitudes, including new seismic and borehole methods, as well as progress in identifying the causes of stress variations. Despite these advances, adding far more spatiotemporal detail would allow geoscientists to address many of today's key challenges regarding natural hazards, energy development, and geodynamics. In particular, it is critically important to characterize stress heterogeneity at multiple scales while also recognizing the coherent variability of the stress field. The second part of the paper considers how more detailed stress datasets could prove essential to addressing some of the grand questions in geoscience, including deciphering the poorly understood feedbacks between crustal dynamics and surface processes, improving earthquake and eruption forecasts, and determining the origins and shared properties of plate boundaries.

Geological Society, London, Special Publications↗

Development of hazard-compatible building fragility and vulnerability models

We present a methodology for transforming the structural and non-structural fragility functions in HAZUS into a format that is compatible with conventional seismic hazard analysis information. The methodology makes use of the building capacity (or pushover) curves and related building parameters provided in HAZUS. Instead of the capacity spectrum method applied in HAZUS, building response is estimated by inelastic response history analysis of corresponding single-degree-of-freedom systems under a large number of earthquake records. Statistics of the building response are used with the damage state definitions from HAZUS to derive fragility models conditioned on spectral acceleration values. Using the developed fragility models for structural and nonstructural building components, with corresponding damage state loss ratios from HAZUS, we also derive building vulnerability models relating spectral acceleration to repair costs. Whereas in HAZUS the structural and nonstructural damage states are treated as if they are independent, our vulnerability models are derived assuming "complete" nonstructural damage whenever the structural damage state is complete. We show the effects of considering this dependence on the final vulnerability models. The use of spectral acceleration (at selected vibration periods) as the ground motion intensity parameter, coupled with the careful treatment of uncertainty, makes the new fragility and vulnerability models compatible with conventional seismic hazard curves and hence useful for extensions to probabilistic damage and loss assessment.

Conference Paper↗

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are largely in businesses related to health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, reflecting businesses that cater to a growing retiree and tourist population. Community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies among 13 incorporated cities, 7 Indian reservations, and 4 counties. The City of Aberdeen has the highest relative community exposure to tsunamis, whereas the City of Long Beach has the highest relative community sensitivity. Levels of community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis are found to be related to the amount and percentage, respectively, of a community?s land that is in a tsunami-inundation zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Washington and help risk managers to determine where additional risk-reduction strategies may be needed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A 36-year record of rock avalanches in the Saint Elias Mountains of Alaska, with implications for future hazards

Glacial retreat and mountain-permafrost degradation resulting from rising global temperatures have the potential to impact the frequency and magnitude of landslides in glaciated environments. Several recent events, including the 2015 Taan Fiord rock avalanche, which triggered a tsunami with one of the highest wave runups ever recorded, have called attention to the hazards posed by landslides in regions like southern Alaska. In the Saint Elias Mountains, the presence of weak sedimentary and metamorphic rocks and active uplift resulting from the collision of the Yakutat and North American tectonic plates create landslide-prone conditions. To differentiate between the typical frequency of landsliding resulting from the geologic and tectonic setting of this region, and landslide processes that may be accelerated due to changes in climate, we used Landsat imagery to create an inventory of rock avalanches in a 3700 km2 area of the Saint Elias Mountains. During the period from 1984-2019, we identified 220 rock avalanches with a mean recurrence interval of 60 days. We compared our landslide inventory with a catalog of M ≥ 4 earthquakes to identify potential coseismic events, but only found three possible earthquake-triggered rock avalanches. We observed a distinct temporal cluster of 41 rock avalanches from 2013 through 2016 that correlated with above average air temperatures (including the three warmest years on record in Alaska, 2014-2016); this cluster was similar to a temporal cluster of recent rock avalanches in nearby Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. The majority of rock avalanches initiated from bedrock ridges in probable permafrost zones, suggesting that ice loss due to permafrost degradation, as opposed to glacial thinning, could be a dominant factor contributing to rock-slope failures in the high elevation areas of the Saint Elias Mountains. Although earthquake-triggered landslides have episodically occurred in southern Alaska, evidence from our study suggests that area-normalized rates of non-coseismic rock avalanches were greater during the period from 1964 to 2019, and that the frequency of these events will continue to increase as the climate continues to warm. These findings highlight the need for hazard assessments in Alaska that address changes in landslide patterns related to climate change.

Alaska↗

Late Cenozoic structure and correlations to seismicity along the Olympic-Wallowa Lineament, northwest United States

Late Cenozoic fault geometry, structure, paleoseismicity, and patterns of recent seismicity at two seismic zones along the Olympic-Wallowa lineament (OWL) of western Idaho, northeast Oregon, and southeast Washington indicate limited right-oblique slip displacement along multiple northwest-striking faults that constitute the lineament. The southern end of the OWL originates in the Long Valley fault system and western Snake River Plain in western Idaho, where it accommodates basin-and-range extension. Several kilometers west of the Long Valley fault system, post-middle Miocene displacement along the OWL has resulted in adjacent areas of uplift and subsidence. The OWL in northeast Oregon consists of a wide zone of northwest-striking faults and is associated with several large, inferred, pull-apart basins. The OWL then emerges from the Blue Mountain uplift as a much narrower zone of faults in the Columbia Plateau known as the Wallula fault zone (WFZ). Structural relationships in the WFZ strongly suggest that it is a right-slip extensional duplex. An ash horizon that correlates with the Mount St. Helens "J" composition (10.7 Ka) is displaced vertically 5 m by a normal fault along a segment of the WFZ. The intensity center for a damaging M = 6.1 earthquake in 1936 is located in the WFZ only a few kilometers northeast of this Holocene fault. Other youthful-appearing, strike-slip and thrust faults are located farther northwest along the OWL and may pose a seismic hazard to adjacent population centers and critical facilities.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Review: Past and future fault rupture lengths in seismic source characterization—The long and short of it

The potential rupture length of an active fault is primary input, and an uncertainty, in source characterization for seismic hazard analysis. The past several decades have seen source models in which faults are divided into potential rupture segments based on fault‐specific behavioral and geometric observations. These models (prescribed segmentation) produced single and multisegment ruptures for use in earthquake probability and regional ground‐motion estimates. The 2013 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), relaxed segmentation through modeling of fault‐to‐fault jumps that result in ruptures along the San Andreas fault system as long as 1200 km. Principle controls of UCERF3 rupture length are the stepover distance between different faults or fault sections, and their orientation relative to modeled coulomb stress changes. Observations of surface faulting worldwide since the mid‐1800s in shallow continental crust show that only 30 of the reported ruptures, about 12% of the reported examples, have been longer than 100 km; only 6 have been longer than 300 km and none has exceeded 500 km. A review of characteristics of long ruptures shows that, in general, they occur along essentially continuous traces with limited stepping or branching from one fault to another as opposed to rupture propagation on linkages of different faults with highly variable physical characteristics. These commonly occupy from 10% to 70% of the total host fault length. Neither segmented nor relaxed models of rupture length have been tested by the occurrence of actual ruptures. There is no reason why segmentation models incorporating timing, dynamic, and rheological factors cannot provide reasonable approximations of future rupture length. For many faults of concern worldwide, this may be the most effective approach.

California↗

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Sedimentary evidence of prehistoric distant-source tsunamis in the Hawaiian Islands

Over the past 200 years of written records, the Hawaiian Islands have experienced tens of tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the subduction zones of the Pacific "Ring of Fire" (e.g., Alaska-Aleutian, Kuril-Kamchatka, Chile, and Japan). Mapping and dating anomalous beds of sand and silt deposited by tsunamis in low-lying areas along Pacific coasts, even those distant from subduction zones, is critical for assessing tsunami hazard throughout the Pacific basin. We searched for evidence of tsunami inundation using stratigraphic and sedimentologic analyses of potential tsunami deposits beneath present and former Hawaiian wetlands, coastal lagoons, and river floodplains. Coastal wetland sites on the islands of Hawai΄i, Maui, O΄ahu, and Kaua΄i were selected based on historical tsunami runup, numerical inundation modeling, proximity to sandy source sediments, degree of historical wetland disturbance, and breadth of prior geologic and archaeologic investigations. We interpret sand beds containing marine calcareous sediment within peaty and/or muddy wetland deposits on the north and northeastern shores of Kaua΄i, O΄ahu, and Hawai΄i as tsunami deposits. At some sites, deposits of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis are analogs for deeper, older probable tsunami deposits. Radiocarbon-based age models date sand beds from three sites to ~700-500 cal yr B.P., which overlaps ages for tsunami deposits in the eastern Aleutian Islands that record a local subduction zone earthquake (Witter et al., 2016; Witter et al., 2018). The overlapping modeled ages for tsunami deposits at our sites support a plausible correlation with an eastern Aleutian earthquake source for a large prehistoric tsunami in the Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii↗

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Landslides from the February 4, 1976, Guatemala earthquake

The M (Richter magnitude) = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake of February 4, 1976, generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of approximately 16,000 km2. These landslides caused hundreds of fatalities as well as extensive property damage. Landslides disrupted both highways and the railroad system and thus severely hindered early rescue efforts. In Guatemala City, extensive property damage and loss of life were due to ground failure beneath dwellings built too close to the edges of steeply incised canyons. We have recorded the distribution of landslides from this earthquake by mapping individual slides at a scale of 1:50,000 for most of the landslide-affected area, using high-altitude aerial photography. The highest density of landslides was in the highlands west of Guatemala City. The predominant types of earthquake-triggered landslides were rock falls and debris slides of less than 15,000 m3 volume; in addition to these smaller landslides, 11 large landslides had volumes of more than 100,000 m3. Several of these large landslides posed special hazards to people and property from lakes impounded by the landslide debris and from the ensuing floods that occurred upon breaching and rapid erosion of the debris. The regional landslide distribution was observed to depend on five major factors: (1) seismic intensity; (2) lithology: 90 percent of all landslides were within Pleistocene pumice deposits; (3) slope steepness; (4) topographic amplification of seismic ground motion; and (5) regional fractures. The presence of preearthquake landslides had no apparent effect on the landslide distribution, and landslide concentration in the Guatemala City area does not correlate with local seismic-intensity data. The landslide concentration, examined at this scale, appears to be governed mainly by lithologic differences within the pumice deposits, preexisting fractures, and amplification of ground motion by topography-all factors related to site conditions.

Professional Paper↗

Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2001

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, has maintained seismic monitoring networks at potentially active volcanoes in Alaska since 1988 (Power and others, 1993; Jolly and others, 1996; Jolly and others, 2001). The primary objectives of this program are the seismic surveillance of active, potentially hazardous, Alaskan volcanoes and the investigation of seismic processes associated with active volcanism. This catalog reflects the status and evolution of the seismic monitoring program, and presents the basic seismic data for the time period January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2001. For an interpretation of these data and previously recorded data, the reader should refer to several recent articles on volcano related seismicity on Alaskan volcanoes in Appendix G. The AVO seismic network was used to monitor twenty-three volcanoes in real time in 2000-2001. These include Mount Wrangell, Mount Spurr, Redoubt Volcano, Iliamna Volcano, Augustine Volcano, Katmai Volcanic Group (Snowy Mountain, Mount Griggs, Mount Katmai, Novarupta, Trident Volcano, Mount Mageik, Mount Martin), Aniakchak Crater, Pavlof Volcano, Mount Dutton, Isanotski Peaks, Shishaldin Volcano, Fisher Caldera, Westdahl Peak, Akutan Peak, Makushin Volcano, Great Sitkin Volcano, and Kanaga Volcano (Figure 1). AVO located 1551 and 1428 earthquakes in 2000 and 2001, respectively, on and around these volcanoes. Highlights of the catalog period (Table 1) include: volcanogenic seismic swarms at Shishaldin Volcano between January and February 2000 and between May and June 2000; an eruption at Mount Cleveland between February and May 2001; episodes of possible tremor at Makushin Volcano starting March 2001 and continuing through 2001, and two earthquake swarms at Great Sitkin Volcano in 2001. This catalog includes: (1) earthquake origin times, hypocenters, and magnitudes with summary statistics describing the earthquake location quality; (2) a description of instruments deployed in the field and their locations; (3) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival systems; (4) station parameters and velocity models used for earthquake locations; (5) a summary of daily station usage throughout the catalog period; and (6) all HYPOELLIPSE files used to determine the earthquake locations presented in this report.

Alaska↗

Decomposing leftovers: Event, path, and site residuals for a small magnitude ANZA region GMPE

Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are critical elements of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as for other applications of ground motions. To isolate the path component for the purpose of building nonergodic GMPEs, we compute a regional GMPE using a large dataset of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) from small‐magnitude earthquakes ( ⁠0.5 ≤ M ≤ 4.5 with > 10,000 events, yielding ∼120,000 recordings) that occurred in 2013 centered around the ANZA seismic network (hypocentral distances ≤180 km⁠ ) in southern California. We examine two separate methods of obtaining residuals from the observed and predicted ground motions: a pooled ordinary least‐squares model and a mixed‐effects maximum‐likelihood model. Whereas the former is often used by the broader seismological community, the latter is widely used by the ground‐motion and engineering seismology community. We confirm that mixed‐effects models are the preferred and most statistically robust method to obtain event, path, and site residuals and discuss the reasoning behind this. Our results show that these methods yield different consequences for the uncertainty of the residuals, particularly for the event residuals. Finally, our results show no correlation (correlation coefficient [CC] <0.03⁠ ) between site residuals and the classic site‐characterization term V S30 ⁠ , the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the top 30 m at a site. We propose that this is due to the relative homogeneity of the site response in the region and perhaps due to shortcomings in the formulation of V S30 ⁠ and suggest applying the provided PGA site correction terms to future ground‐motion studies for increased accuracy.

California↗

Earthquakes and the southeastern boundary of the intact Iapetan margin in eastern North America

Earthquakes at three localities in eastern North America have been attributed on geological and seismological grounds to compressional reactivation of some of the late Proterozoic or early Paleozoic normal faults in the northeast-trending Iapetan passive margin. Assessment of seismic hazard can be aided by identifying the boundaries of the area of Iapetan faulting. A previous paper located the northwestern boundary. This report interprets deep seismic-reflection profiles as showing that the margin comprises a seismically active northwestern part, where Precambrian crust contains some Iapetan faults but remains mostly as it was formed, and a southeastern part, where later deformations likely destroyed or modified the Precambrian crust and Iapetan faults. Accordingly, the boundary between the northwestern and southeastern parts of the margin, which coincides approximately with the Appalachian gravity gradient, can be taken as the southeastern limit of potentially seismogenic Iapetan faults.

eastern North America↗

Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods

Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process.

Conference Paper↗

California's restless giant: The Long Valley Caldera

Scientists have monitored geologic unrest in the Long Valley, California, area since 1980. In that year, following a swarm of strong earthquakes, they discovered that the central part of the Long Valley Caldera had begun actively rising. Unrest in the area persists today. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to provide the public and civil authorities with current information on the volcanic hazard at Long Valley and is prepared to give timely warnings of any impending eruption.

California↗

Geological hazards programs and research in the USA

Geological hazards have been studied for centuries, but government support of research to lessen their effects is relatively new. This article briefly describes government programs and research underway in the USA that are directed towards reducing losses of life and property from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. -from Author

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗