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Observing the Greatest Earthquakes: AGU Chapman Conference on Giant Earthquakes and Their Tsunamis: Viña del Mar and Valparaíso, Chile, 16–20 May 2010

An AGU Chapman Conference commemorated the fiftieth anniversary of the 1960 M 9.5 Chile earthquake. Participants reexamined this earthquake, the largest ever recorded instrumentally, and compared it with Chile's February 2010 M 8.8 earthquake. They also addressed the giant earthquake potential of subduction zones worldwide and strategies for reducing losses due to tsunamis. The conference drew 96 participants from 18 countries, and it reached out to public audiences in Chile.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

Transient electromagnetic study of basin fill sediments in the Upper San Pedro Basin, Mexico

The Upper San Pedro River Basin in Mexico and the United States is an important riparian corridor that is coming under increasing pressure from growing populations and the associated increase in groundwater withdrawal. Several studies have produced three-dimensional maps of the basin fill sediments in the US portion of the basin but little work has been done in the Mexican portion of the basin. Here, the results of a ground-based transient electromagnetic (TEM) survey in the Upper San Pedro Basin, Mexico are presented. These basin fill sediments are characterized by a 10–40 m deep unsaturated surficial zone which is composed primarily of sands and gravels. In the central portion of the basin this unsaturated zone is usually underlain by a shallow clay layer 20–50 m thick. Beneath this may be more clay, as is usually the case near the San Pedro River, or interbedded sand, silt, and clay to a depth of 200–250 m. As you move away from the river, the upper clay layer disappears and the amount of sand in the sediments increases. At 1–2 km away from the river, sands can occupy up to 50% of the upper 200–250 m of the sediment fill. Below this, clays are always present except where bedrock highs are observed. This lower clay layer begins at a depth of about 200 m in the central portion of the basin (250 m or more at distances greater than 1–2 km from the river) and extends to the bottom of most profiles to depths of 400 m. While the depth of the top of this lower clay layer is probably accurate, its thickness observed in the models may be overestimated due to the relatively low magnetic moment of the TEM system used in this study. The inversion routine used for interpretation is based on a one-dimensional geologic model. This is a layer based model that is isotropic in both the x and y directions. Several survey soundings did not meet this requirement which invalidates the inversion process and the resulting interpretation at these locations. The results from these locations were rejected.

Arizona↗

Impacts of spontaneous waterfall development on bedrock river longitudinal profile morphology

River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self-form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1-D numerical model to investigate how self-formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km-scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady-state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall-rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface↗

Effects of geothermal development on deformation in the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California, 1985-1994

Long Valley caldera in east central California has been the site of crustal unrest in the form of seismicity and ground deformation in response to magmatic inflation since 1980. Uplift of the resurgent dome has totaled ∼0.6 m over the 1975–1992 period. Within this region of uplift, and near the southwestern edge of the resurgent dome, is the Casa Diablo area, which experienced relative subsidence of 0.17 m between 1985 and 1992. Geothermal fluid production began at Casa Diablo in 1985 to supply a binary electric power plant; currently, three such plants generate a total of about 40 MW of electricity. The plants are supplied by 170°C water pumped from depths near 150m; all the produced water is reinjected at cooler temperatures at depths near 600 m. Analyses of data from (1) regional leveling lines and a network of bench marks in the geothermal well field area, (2) tilt observations from an L‐shaped array of bench marks, and (3) calculations relating pressure and temperature changes to subsidence indicate that relative subsidence at Casa Diablo results mainly from reductions in pressure in the shallow production reservoir and overlying formations and reductions in temperature in the underlying injection reservoir. Secondary effects on deformation are caused by offsets along the Taylor‐Bryant fault bounding the west side of the well field.

California↗

Late Cretaceous paleomagnetism and clockwise rotation of the Silver Bell Mountains, south central Arizona

Late Cretaceous ash flow volcanism in the Silver Bell Mountains of southern Arizona (32.3°N, 248.5°E) was associated with caldera formation and porphyry copper mineralization. Oriented samples from 34 sites in volcanic, volcaniclastic, and intrusive units related to this episode of igneous activity (73–69 Ma) yield a mean paleomagnetic direction of I = 61.2°, D = 24.0°, α 95 = 7.6°. Primary remanent magnetizations are indicated by the presence of both normal and reversed polarities and by the significantly improved grouping (95% confidence level) of site-mean directions for a widespread tuff unit after structural correction. A comparison of this direction with a direction at Silver Bell calculated from contemporaneous units for stable North America ( I = 58.8°, D = 342.3°, α 95 = 7.7°) indicates a Late Cretaceous paleolatitude anomaly of −2.4°±7.6° (not significant at the 95% confidence level) and a declination anomaly of 41.7°±14.3° for the Silver Bell Mountains. Previously determined paleomagnetic data for southeastern Arizona suggest that this apparent clockwise rotation in the Silver Bell Mountains is a local phenomenon. Although preliminary, the average paleomagnetic direction for Oligocene and lower Miocene rocks in the Silver Bell area ( I = 43.8°, D = 357.3°, α 95 = 16.5°) is similar to that calculated for stable North America ( I = 50.2°, D = 352.2°, α 95 = 3.9°), implying that the observed rotation in the Silver Bell Mountains occurred before 26 Ma and was most likely associated with dextral strike-slip movement along the Ragged Top and related WNW trending faults bounding the Silver Bell Mountain block. These data, in conjunction with plate reconstructions and other paleomagnetic data from southwestern North America, imply that WNW trending strike-slip faults may have played an important role during Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary deformation in southern Arizona.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Flank tectonics of Martian volcanoes

On the flanks of Olympus Mons is a series of terraces, concentrically distributed around the caldera. Their morphology and location suggest that they could be thrust faults caused by compressional failure of the cone. In an attempt to understand the mechanism of faulting and the possible influences of the interior structure of Olympus Mons, we have constructed a numerical model for elastic stresses within a Martian volcano. In the absence of internal pressurization, the middle slopes of the cone are subjected to compressional stress, appropriate to the formation of thrust faults. These stresses for Olympus Mons are ∼250 MPa. If a vacant magma chamber is contained within the cone, the region of maximum compressional stress is extended toward the base of the cone. If the magma chamber is pressurized, extensional stresses occur at the summit and on the upper slopes of the cone. For a filled but unpressurized magma chamber, the observed positions of the faults agree well with the calculated region of high compressional stress. Three other volcanoes on Mars, Ascraeus Mons, Arsia Mons, and Pavonis Mons, possess similar terraces. Extending our analysis to other Martian volcanoes, we find that only these three and Olympus Mons have flank stresses that exceed the compressional failure strength of basalt, lending support to the view that the terraces on all four are thrust faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Spatial and temporal patterns of cloud cover and fog inundation in coastal California: Ecological implications

The presence of low-lying stratocumulus clouds and fog has been known to modify biophysical and ecological properties in coastal California where forests are frequently shaded by low-lying clouds or immersed in fog during otherwise warm and dry summer months. Summer fog and stratus can ameliorate summer drought stress and enhance soil water budgets, and often have different spatial and temporal patterns. Here we use remote sensing datasets to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of cloud cover over California’s northern Channel Islands. We found marine stratus to be persistent from May through September across the years 2001-2012. Stratus clouds were both most frequent and had the greatest spatial extent in July. Clouds typically formed in the evening, and dissipated by the following early afternoon. We present a novel method to downscale satellite imagery using atmospheric observations and discriminate patterns of fog from those of stratus and help explain patterns of fog deposition previously studied on the islands. The outcomes of this study contribute significantly to our ability to quantify the occurrence of coastal fog at biologically meaningful spatial and temporal scales that can improve our understanding of cloud-ecosystem interactions, species distributions and coastal ecohydrology.

California↗

Preliminary identification of ground-water nitrate sources using nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes, Kansas

Increasing nitrate-N in ground water is a problem in areas with limited ground-water supplies, such as central Kansas. Nitrate-N concentrations in ground water in the study area in Ellis County range from 0.9 to 26 mg/L. Calculated mean values observed in soil cores are 1.2-15 mg/kg. The ??15N signatures of the ground waters are more enriched (+16.8 to +28.7???) than those of the soils (+8.4 to +1 3.7???), strongly suggesting that nitrate-N sources are not from mineralized and labile nitrogen present in the unsaturated zone. Soil cores were collected near municipal wells to determine if soil nitrogen was a contributing source to the ground water. Increased ??15N of total nitrogen with depth suggests that microbial mineralization processes and possible denitrification or volatilization isotope enrichments have affected the observed ?? 15N signatures in the soil. However, the observed soil-nitrogen values are not of sufficient magnitude to explain the nitrate-N concentrations or associated ??15N values observed in the ground water. Stable carbon isotopes provide some supporting evidence that soils are not a major contributor to the observed nitrate-N concentration in the ground water. ?? 13C values of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soils generally become more enriched with depth while corresponding ground-water ??13C (DOC) values are more depleted than in the overlying soils. Carbon isotope values of the soils are indicative of a C4 plant source that is enriched by microbial processes. The ??13C (DOC) of ground water indicates C3 values that may reflect impacts from animal-waste sources.

Current Research in Earth Sciences↗

Trace-element record in zircons during exhumation from UHP conditions, North-East Greenland Caledonides

Coesite-bearing zircon formed at ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) conditions share general characteristics of eclogite-facies zircon with trace-element signatures characterized by depleted heavy rare earth elements (HREE), lack of an Eu anomaly, and low Th/ U ratios. Trace-element signatures of zircons from the Caledonian UHP terrane in North-East Greenland were used to examine the possible changes in signature with age during exhumation. Collection and interpretation of age and trace-element analyses of zircon from three samples of quartzofeldspathic gneiss and two leucocratic intrusions were guided by core vs. rim zoning patterns as imaged by cathodoluminesence. Change from igneous to eclogite-facies metamorphic trace-element signature in protolith zircon is characterized by gradual depletion of HREE, whereas newly formed metamorphic rims have flat HREE patterns and REE concentrations that are distinct from the recrystallized inherited cores. The signature associated with eclogite-facies metamorphic zircon is observed in coesite-bearing zircon formed at 358 ?? 4 Ma, metamorphic rims formed at 348 ?? 5 Ma during the initial stages of exhumation, and metamorphic rims formed at 337 ?? 5 Ma. Zircons from a garnet-bearing granite emplaced in the neck of an eclogite boudin and a leucocratic dike that cross-cuts amphibolite-facies structural fabrics have steeply sloping HREE patterns, variably developed negative Eu anomalies, and low Th/U ratios. The granite records initial decompression melting and exhumation at 347 ?? 2 Ma and later zircon rim growth at 329 ?? 5. The leucocratic dike was likely emplaced at amphibolite-facies conditions at 330 ?? 2 Ma, but records additional growth of compositionally similar zircon at 321 ??2 Ma. The difference between the trace-element signature of metamorphic zircon in the gneisses and in part coeval leucocratic intrusions indicates that the zircon signature varies as a function of lithology and context, thus enhancing its ability to aid in the interpretation of U-Pb data and track the exhumation history of UHP terranes. The differences may reflect variation in elemental availability through breakdown reactions in quartzofeldpathic gneiss vs. availability during melt production and/or crystallization. UHP rocks in North-East Greenland began exhumation by 347 ?? 2 Ma, were still at HP eclogite-facies conditions at 337 ?? 5 Ma and were at amphibolite-facies conditions by 330 ?? 2 Ma. ?? 2009 E. Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung.

European Journal of Mineralogy↗

Evaluation of airborne lidar data to predict vegetation Presence/Absence

This study evaluates the capabilities of the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) in delineating vegetation assemblages in Jean Lafitte National Park, Louisiana. Five-meter-resolution grids of bare earth, canopy height, canopy-reflection ratio, and height of median energy were derived from EAARL data acquired in September 2006. Ground-truth data were collected along transects to assess species composition, canopy cover, and ground cover. To decide which model is more accurate, comparisons of general linear models and generalized additive models were conducted using conventional evaluation methods (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, Kappa statistics, and area under the curve) and two new indexes, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. Generalized additive models were superior to general linear models in modeling presence/absence in training vegetation categories, but no statistically significant differences between the two models were achieved in determining the classification accuracy at validation locations using conventional evaluation methods, although statistically significant improvements in net reclassifications were observed. ?? 2009 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Rare-earth elements

The rare-earth elements (REEs) are 15 elements that range in atomic number from 57 (lanthanum) to 71 (lutetium); they are commonly referred to as the “lanthanides.” Yttrium (atomic number 39) is also commonly regarded as an REE because it shares chemical and physical similarities and has affinities with the lanthanides. Although REEs are not rare in terms of average crustal abundance, the concentrated deposits of REEs are limited in number. Because of their unusual physical and chemical properties, the REEs have diverse defense, energy, industrial, and military technology applications. The glass industry is the leading consumer of REE raw materials, which are used for glass polishing and as additives that provide color and special optical properties to the glass. Lanthanum-based catalysts are used in petroleum refining, and cerium-based catalysts are used in automotive catalytic converters. The use of REEs in magnets is a rapidly increasing application. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets, which are the strongest known type of magnets, are used when space and weight are restrictions. Nickel-metal hydride batteries use anodes made of a lanthanum-based alloys. China, which has led the world production of REEs for decades, accounted for more than 90 percent of global production and supply, on average, during the past decade. Citing a need to retain its limited REE resources to meet domestic requirements as well as concerns about the environmental effects of mining, China began placing restrictions on the supply of REEs in 2010 through the imposition of quotas, licenses, and taxes. As a result, the global rare-earth industry has increased its stockpiling of REEs; explored for deposits outside of China; and promoted new efforts to conserve, recycle, and substitute for REEs. New mine production began at Mount Weld in Western Australia, and numerous other exploration and development projects noted in this chapter are ongoing throughout the world. The REE-bearing minerals are diverse and often complex in composition. At least 245 individual REE-bearing minerals are recognized; they are mainly carbonates, fluorocarbonates, and hydroxylcarbonates (n = 42); oxides (n = 59); silicates (n = 85); and phosphates (n = 26). Many of the world’s significant REE deposits occur in carbonatites, which are carbonate igneous rocks. The REEs also have a strong genetic association with alkaline magmatism. The systematic geologic and chemical processes that explain these observations are not well understood. Economic or potentially economic REE deposits have been found in (a) carbonatites, (b) peralkaline igneous systems, (c) magmatic magnetite-hematite bodies, (d) iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits, (e) xenotime-monazite accumulations in mafic gneiss, (f) ion-absorption clay deposits, and (g) monazite-xenotime-bearing placer deposits. Carbonatites have been the world’s main source for the light REEs since the 1960s. Ion-adsorption clay deposits in southern China are the world’s primary source of the heavy REEs. Monazite-bearing placer deposits were important sources of REEs before the mid-1960s and may be again in the future. In recent years, REEs have been produced from large carbonatite bodies mined at the Mountain Pass deposit in California and, in China, at the Bayan Obo deposit in Nei Mongol Autonomous Region, the Maoniuping deposit in Sichuan Province, the Daluxiang deposit in Sichuan Province, and the Weishan deposit in Anhui Province. Alkaline igneous complexes have recently been targeted for exploration because of their enrichments in the heavy REEs. Information relevant to the environmental aspects of REE mining is limited. Little is known about the aquatic toxicity of REEs. The United States lacks drinking water standards for REEs. The concentrations of REEs in environmental media are influenced by their low abundances in crustal rocks and their limited solubility in most groundwaters and surface waters. The scarcity of sulfide minerals, including pyrite, minimizes or eliminates concerns about acid-mine drainage for carbonatite-hosted deposits and alkaline-intrusion-related REE deposits. For now, insights into environmental responses of REE mine wastes must rely on predictive models.

Professional Paper↗

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Climatic Change↗

Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggests that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2–3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ∼5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

California↗

Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria induced about 70 000 landslides throughout Puerto Rico, USA, including thousands each in three municipalities situated in Puerto Rico's rugged Cordillera Central range. By combining a nonlinear soil-depth model, presumed wettest-case pore pressures, and quasi-three-dimensional (3D) slope-stability analysis, we developed a landslide susceptibility map that has very good performance and continuous susceptibility zones having smooth, buffered boundaries. Our landslide susceptibility map enables assessment of potential ground-failure locations and their use as landslide sources in a companion assessment of inundation and debris-flow runout. The quasi-3D factor of safety, F 3 , showed strong inverse correlation to landslide density (high density at low F 3 ). Area under the curve (AUC) of true positive rate (TPR) versus false positive rate (FPR) indicated success of F 3 in identifying head-scarp points (AUC = 0.84) and source-area polygons (0.85 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.88). The susceptibility zones enclose specific percentages of observed landslides. Thus, zone boundaries use successive F 3 levels for increasing TPR of landslide head-scarp points, with zones bounded by F 3 at TPR = 0.75, very high; F 3 at TPR = 0.90, high; and the remainder moderate to low. The very high susceptibility zone, with 118 landslides km −2 , covered 23 % of the three municipalities. The high zone (51 landslides km −2 ) covered another 10 %.

Puerto Rice↗

Sharpness of upper-mantle discontinuities determined from high-frequency reflections

AN understanding of the nature of seismic discontinuities in the Earth's upper mantle is important for understanding mantle processes: in particular, the amplitude and sharpness of these discontinuities are critical for assessing models of upper-mantle phase changes and chemical layering. So far, seismic studies aimed at determining the thickness and lateral variability of upper-mantle discontinuities have yielded equivocal results, particularly for the discontinuity at 410km depth1,2. Here we present short-period (0.8-2.0 s) recordings of upper-mantle precursors to the seismic phase P???P??? (PKPPKP) from two South American earthquakes recorded by the ???700-station short-period array in California. Our results show that the 410- and 660-km discontinuities beneath the Indian Ocean are locally simple and sharp, corresponding to transition zones of 4 km or less. These observations pose problems for mineral physics models3-5, which predict a transitional thickness greater than 6 km for the peridotite to ??-spinel phase transition. In contrast to the results of long-period studies6,7, we observe no short-period arrivals from near 520 km depth.

Nature↗

Volumetric strain in relation to particle displacements for body and surface waves in a general viscoelastic half-space

Dilatational earth strain, associated with the radiation fields for several hundred local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes, has been recorded over an extended bandwidth and dynamic range at four borehole sites near the San Andreas fault, CA. The general theory of linear viscoelasticity is applied to account for anelasticity of the near-surface materials and to provide a mathematical basis for interpretation of seismic radiation fields as detected simultaneously by co-located volumetric strain meters and seismometers. The general theory is applied to describe volumetric strain and displacement for general (homogeneous or inhomogeneous) P and S waves in an anelastic whole space. Solutions to the free-surface reflection problems for incident general P and S-I waves are used to evaluate the effect of the free surface on observations from co-located sensors. Corresponding expressions are derived for a Rayleigh-type surface wave on a linear viscoelastic half-space. The theory predicts a number of anelastic wave field characteristics that can be inferred from observation of volumetric strains and displacement fields as detected by co-located sensors that cannot be inferred from either sensor alone. -from Author

Geophysical Journal↗

Regional models for postfire debris-flow likelihood and rainfall thresholds across the western United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses an empirical model developed with logistic regression (the ‘M1’ model) to rapidly assess debris-flow likelihood and to identify quantitative rainfall thresholds for debris flows after wildfire in the western United States. The M1 model was calibrated to a debris-flow inventory from southern California (United States) and has been applied throughout the western United States. Limited spatial coverage in the calibration dataset has motivated evaluation of M1 model accuracy outside the calibration region (e.g., the Sierra Nevada or the eastern Cascade Range, United States). Previous test cases showed that M1 overpredicts debris-flow likelihood and underpredicts rainfall thresholds for some locations (e.g., Arizona, northern California, Colorado, New Mexico, United States). We sought to improve the regional applicability of a debris-flow likelihood model by expanding the debris-flow inventory used for calibration, testing multiple potential models and generating an updated model framework. The updated inventory includes 3788 observations from 67 burned areas paired with short duration rainfall ratios. The updated model framework consists of a modified model structure and sets of coefficients calibrated separately to the entire updated inventory and to subsets of the inventory that intersect three Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level 2 ecoregions (Mediterranean California, Upper Gila Mountains and Western Cordillera). Comparisons of predictions from the updated models with observed rainfall and debris-flow activity show that the updated models outperform the M1 model by ~15%–60% and improve the uniformity of predictive performance across the western United States. The updated models also reduce false positive rates relative to M1 and generate rainfall thresholds that are better aligned with relative differences in regional climatology and debris-flow activity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Seismic evidence for a slab tear at the Puerto Rico Trench

The fore-arc region of the northeast Caribbean plate north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands has been the site of numerous seismic swarms since at least 1976. A 6 month deployment of five ocean bottom seismographs recorded two such tightly clustered swarms, along with additional events. Joint analyses of the ocean bottom seismographs and land-based seismic data reveal that the swarms are located at depths of 50–150 km. Focal mechanism solutions, found by jointly fitting P wave first-motion polarities and S/P amplitude ratios, indicate that the broadly distributed events outside the swarm generally have strike- and dip-slip mechanisms at depths of 50–100 km, while events at depths of 100–150 km have oblique mechanisms. A stress inversion reveals two distinct stress regimes: The slab segment east of 65°W longitude is dominated by trench-normal tensile stresses at shallower depths (50–100 km) and by trench-parallel tensile stresses at deeper depths (100–150 km), whereas the slab segment west of 65°W longitude has tensile stresses that are consistently trench normal throughout the depth range at which events were observed (50–100 km). The simple stress pattern in the western segment implies relatively straightforward subduction of an unimpeded slab, while the stress pattern observed in the eastern segment, shallow trench-normal tension and deeper trench-normal compression, is consistent with flexure of the slab due to rollback. These results support the hypothesis that the subducting North American plate is tearing at or near these swarms. The 35 year record of seismic swarms at this location and the recent increase in seismicity suggest that the tear is still propagating.

Puerto Rico↗