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USGS2012

Ecosystem engineering varies spatially: a test of the vegetation modification paradigm for prairie dogs

Colonial, burrowing herbivores can be engineers of grassland and shrubland ecosystems worldwide. Spatial variation in landscapes suggests caution when extrapolating single-place studies of single species, but lack of data and the need to generalize often leads to ‘model system’ thinking and application of results beyond appropriate statistical inference. Generalizations about the engineering effects of prairie dogs ( Cynomys sp.) developed largely from intensive study at a single complex of black-tailed prairie dogs C. ludovicianus in northern mixed prairie, but have been extrapolated to other ecoregions and prairie dog species in North America, and other colonial, burrowing herbivores. We tested the paradigm that prairie dogs decrease vegetation volume and the cover of grasses and tall shrubs, and increase bare ground and forb cover. We sampled vegetation on and off 279 colonies at 13 complexes of 3 prairie dog species widely distributed across 5 ecoregions in North America. The paradigm was generally supported at 7 black-tailed prairie dog complexes in northern mixed prairie, where vegetation volume, grass cover, and tall shrub cover were lower, and bare ground and forb cover were higher, on colonies than at paired off-colony sites. Outside the northern mixed prairie, all 3 prairie dog species consistently reduced vegetation volume, but their effects on cover of plant functional groups varied with prairie dog species and the grazing tolerance of dominant perennial grasses. White-tailed prairie dogs C. leucurus in sagebrush steppe did not reduce shrub cover, whereas black-tailed prairie dogs suppressed shrub cover at all complexes with tall shrubs in the surrounding habitat matrix. Black-tailed prairie dogs in shortgrass steppe and Gunnison's prairie dogs C. gunnisoni in Colorado Plateau grassland both had relatively minor effects on grass cover, which may reflect the dominance of grazing-tolerant shortgrasses at both complexes. Variation in modification of vegetation structure may be understood in terms of the responses of different dominant perennial grasses to intense defoliation and differences in foraging behavior among prairie dog species. Spatial variation in the engineering role of prairie dogs suggests spatial variation in their keystone role, and spatial variation in the roles of other ecosystem engineers. Thus, ecosystem engineering can have a spatial component not evident from single-place studies.

Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗

USGS2024

Intraspecific trait variability in wild populations predicts neither variability nor performance in a common garden

Dryland restoration requires plant materials capable of performing well despite difficult growing conditions. Selecting plant materials with higher intraspecific trait variability (ITV) may support successful outcomes by enhancing the performance of those materials in restoration settings. However, maintaining ITV from wild populations is not well understood and requires further investigation if ITV is to be incorporated into native plant materials, which are often developed from wild-collected seed grown in agricultural settings. We used two perennial plant species to explore whether (1) ITV measured at field sites predicts ITV in a common garden, (2) rankings of ITV among populations remain stable over time, and (3) higher levels of ITV promote survival and reproductive effort in a common garden. We measured ITV in specific leaf area and height for Bouteloua curtipendula and Heterotheca villosa at field sites and over 2 years in a common garden, as well as survival and flower production in the common garden. We also calculated climate distance between field sites, where seeds were originally sourced, and the common garden to account for the impact of climatic differences on ITV. We found that (1) ITV measured at field sites did not predict ITV in the common garden, (2) rankings of ITV across populations were inconsistent, and (3) relationships between ITV and performance were rare and differed by species. Our findings indicate that the utility of ITV in wild populations as a predictive tool may be limited.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2001

The importance of competition in regulating plant species abundance along a salinity gradient

Current theories differ in their predictions concerning the effects of interspecific interactions on species growth and distribution along environmental gradients. In this study, we examined the influence of competition on species composition across a salinity gradient. This work involved three common fresh and brackish marsh species. The three species, Spartina patens, Sagittaria lancifolia, and Panicum hemitomon, differ in salt tolerances but are commonly found in overlapping zones across coastal marsh gradients in the southeastern United States. Plants were grown in a greenhouse under four salinity treatments (0, 2, 4, and 8 g/kg), in monocultures and in three‐species mixtures. Data from the monocultures and mixtures were used to examine the importance of competition in regulating community composition and species' growth. Results for individual species were significantly different when grown in monoculture vs. the three‐species mixture. While with increasing salinity community dominance shifted toward the most salt‐tolerant species, Spartina patens, competition was found to alter community composition equally over all salinities. However, the responses of individual species demonstrated a very different pattern; the relative importance of competition in influencing individual growth differed substantially depending on the salinity tolerances of species. These results support the contention that, as abiotic stress increases, competition becomes less of a limiting factor in regulating the abundance of a species. However, the role of competition at the community level is the sum of the individual species' responses and may or may not vary with the level of abiotic stress.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Effect of invasive plant removal on the density of Peromyscus sonoriensis (western deer mice) in Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA.

Non-native plants can affect communities through direct competition, and by providing refuge to seed predators, creating apparent competition with native plants. Ammophila arenaria (European beachgrass) has been introduced to coastal dune habitats throughout the western United States where it forms dense monocultures, stabilizes dunes, and alters abiotic and biotic conditions. The dominance of European beachgrass has been linked to declines of Lupinus tidestromii (Tidestrom’s lupine), an herb endemic to coastal dune communities in central and northern California. Peromyscus sonoriensis (western deer mice), a native seed predator, use beachgrass as refuge from predators. Tidestrom’s lupine plants near European beachgrass stands experience greater predation pressure from deer mice. At Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA (PRNS), mechanical removal, manual pulling, and herbicide treatment have been used to reduce the density of European beachgrass near Tidestrom’s lupine populations. We trapped deer mice at five sites in PRNS that experienced different management regimes and used spatially-explicit capture-recapture models to estimate deer mouse density as a function of site and habitat treatment. We found that deer mouse density was lowest in areas where European beachgrass was mechanically removed and in herbicide-treated foredunes, and highest in areas highly invaded by European beachgrass and Carpobrotus spp. (iceplant). The density of deer mice increased from 2021 to 2022 at every site except one that underwent extensive mechanical removal of European beachgrass from 2010-2011. This study shows enduring effects of European beachgrass removal on the density of a native seed predator and highlights the importance of habitat management for conservation of Tidestrom’s lupine.

California↗

USGS1999

Hypothesis of historical effects from selenium on endangered fish in the Colorado River basin

Anthropogenic selenium contamination of aquatic ecosystems was first associated with cooling reservoirs of coal-fired power plants in the late 1970s, and later with drainage water from agricultural irrigation activities in the 1980s. In the 1990s, selenium contamination has been raised as a concern in the recovery of currently endangered fish in the Colorado River system. Widespread contamination from seleniferous drain waters from agriculture has been documented in the upper and lower Colorado River basins. Historically, irrigation started in the upper Colorado River basin in the late 1880s. In the 1930s, selenium concentrations in various drains, tributaries, and major rivers in the upper and lower Colorado River basins were in the 100 s and 1000 s of µg/L. Native fish inhabiting large rivers such as the Colorado pikeminnow and razorback sucker were abundant before 1890, but became rare after 1910 to 1920, before the influence of mainstem reservoirs in the upper and lower Colorado River. A hypothesis is presented that selenium contamination of the tributaries and major rivers of the Colorado River basin in the 1890 to 1910 period caused the decline of the endangered fish and continues to inhibit their recovery.

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment↗

USGS2021

Using high resolution satellite and telemetry data to track flooded habitats, their use by waterfowl, and evaluate effects of drought on waterfowl and shorebird bioenergetics in California

Wetland managers in the Central Valley of California, a dynamic hydrological landscape, require information regarding the amount and location of existing wetland habitat to make decisions on how to best use water resources to support multiple wildlife objectives, particularly during drought. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Point Blue Conservation Science (Point Blue), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) partnered to learn how wetland and flooded agricultural habitats used by waterfowl and shorebirds change during the non-breeding season (July–April) particularly during drought. During extreme drought conditions, the ability to provide sufficient water for wildlife often depends on the timing of water deliveries to managed wetlands and winter-flooded crop fields and decisions on whether to fallow croplands. Waterfowl and shorebirds could be particularly affected by these decisions because they typically rest and feed in flooded habitats. Poor habitat conditions resulting from spatially or temporally suboptimal water deliveries (that is, mismatch between waterfowl habitat needs and timing and location of flooded habitats) could reduce waterfowl hunting opportunities and body condition. Point Blue scientists developed a system for near real-time tracking of habitats used by waterfowl, shorebirds, and some other wetland-dependent “waterbirds” ( www.pointblue.org/watertracker ) and to assess the impacts of drought on habitat availability and on waterfowl and shorebird bioenergetics. The WERC researchers linked these data with near real-time tracking (telemetry) data of duck locations throughout the Valley. The team used these two datasets to relate duck locations to open-water characteristics and to learn how waterfowl use habitats under spatially and temporally changing conditions during drought and non-drought periods. We found that recent extreme drought (2013–15) significantly changed the timing and magnitude of flooding and consequently reduced the availability of habitats used by waterfowl and shorebirds more than other recent historic droughts 2000–11. Drought reduced irrigations of moist soil seed plants and thus there was lower food energy available for waterfowl. Analyses using bioenergetics models indicated that, overall, extreme drought increased food energy deficits (total number of deficit days) for shorebirds and waterfowl. Our analysis indicated a strong direct relationship between duck locations and classified habitat derived from open-water data during the wintering period (October–March). This result helps confirm the application of dynamic water data to identify flooded areas that provide waterfowl habitat. Presence of open water at a 1-hectare resolution can be used effectively to identify flooded landscape areas available as habitat for ducks. Our discoveries from evaluating use of space by ducks also indicated that nighttime feeding locations of ducks were concentrated nearby primary roosts and that foraging distances could depend on hydrologic dynamics of location (Suisun Marsh versus California excluding Suisun Marsh) and time of season (early, middle, late). Other results indicated that some areas on the California landscape with extremely reliable water supplies could receive consistent use by ducks year after year (in essence, almost drought proof). The Water Tracker is set up to automatically track wetland habitat and food availability each year and is making these data available to water and wetland managers. Results from this research are a significant step toward understanding how waterfowl and shorebird habitats can be optimally managed on the landscape to support desired populations of these migratory birds during extreme drought.

California↗

USGS2002

Molecular analysis of a 11 700-year-old rodent midden from the Atacama Desert, Chile

DNA was extracted from an 11 700-year-old rodent midden from the Atacama Desert, Chile and the chloroplast and animal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) gene sequences were analysed to investigate the floral environment surrounding the midden, and the identity of the midden agent. The plant sequences, together with the macroscopic identifications, suggest the presence of 13 plant families and three orders that no longer exist today at the midden locality, and thus point to a much more diverse and humid climate 11 700 years ago. The mtDNA sequences suggest the presence of at least four different vertebrates, which have been putatively identified as a camelid (vicuna), two rodents (Phyllotis and Abrocoma), and a cardinal bird (Passeriformes). To identify the midden agent, DNA was extracted from pooled faecal pellets, three small overlapping fragments of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene were amplified and multiple clones were sequenced. These results were analysed along with complete cytochrome b sequences for several modern Phyllotis species to place the midden sequence phylogenetically. The results identified the midden agent as belonging to an ancestral P. limatus. Today, P. limatus is not found at the midden locality but it can be found 100 km to the north, indicating at least a small range shift. The more extensive sampling of modern Phyllotis reinforces the suggestion that P. limatus is recently derived from a peripheral isolate.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS1998

Estimating the effectiveness of further sampling inspecies inventories

Estimators of the number of additional species expected in the next Δ n samples offer a potentially important tool for improving cost-effectiveness of species inventories but are largely untested. We used Monte Carlo methods to compare 11 such estimators, across a range of community structures and sampling regimes, and validated our results, where possible, using empirical data from vascular plant and beetle inventories from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We found that B. Efron and R. Thisted’s 1976 negative binomial estimator was most robust to differences in community structure and that it was among the most accurate estimators when sampling was from model communities with structures resembling the large, heterogeneous communities that are the likely targets of major inventory efforts. Other estimators may be preferred under specific conditions, however. For example, when sampling was from model communities with highly even species-abundance distributions, estimates based on the Michaelis-Menten model were most accurate; when sampling was from moderately even model communities with S = 10 species or communities with highly uneven species-abundance distributions, estimates based on Gleason’s (1922) species–area model were most accurate. We suggest that use of such methods in species inventories can help improve cost-effectiveness by providing an objective basis for redirecting sampling to more-productive sites, methods, or time periods as the expectation of detecting additional species becomes unacceptably low.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Navigating the science-policy interface

As a wildlife population ecologist who wants to conduct useful science, I find the Endangered Species Act (ESA), like other federal wildlife statutes, an intriguing read. The topic is in my wheelhouse—fish, wildlife, and plants, with a focus at the population and species levels. There is an emphasis on science, in fact, the “best scientific and commercial data available.” And there are intriguing questions: what threats does a species face? What habitat would be critical for its survival? Could any federal actions put the species or critical habitat in greater peril? I am not alone in this attraction. Hundreds of scientists continue to consider the types of scientific analysis suggested by the ESA. The enthusiasm is palpable. If the first cursory read of the ESA is intriguing to me as a scientist, the second close read is tantalizing—I realize that something very attractive is just out of reach. I know how to estimate the probability of extinction, but I do not know what “in danger of extinction” means. I know how to evaluate the incremental change in status that might arise from some level of proposed take, but I do not know what “is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence” of a species means. The standards expressed in the statute are not stated in purely scientific terms. Thus, ESA decisions cannot be based solely on science, and require additional policy interpretation. Clarity about these policy interpretations—even awareness that they are needed—can be hard to find, leaving a gap between what I can provide as a scientist and what an ESA decision maker needs. This awareness of the interaction between science and policy is also occurring in the larger field of conservation science, where there has been an increasing recognition of a research-implementation gap, the need for actionable science, and the promise of translational ecology. All of these terms emphasize that science alone does not result in action; instead, action arises out of decisions that are informed both by science and by values. At the interface of science and policy, a scientist can deliver relevant knowledge, and a decision maker can explain the policy context in which that science is needed. As a scientist wanting to conduct useful science, I crave this two-way conversation. But how can this conversation be structured in a meaningful and appropriate way? In this chapter, I explore how decision analysis can be used to navigate the science-policy interface for ESA decisions. Decision analysis is a large, well-established field that studies how decisions are made and how they could be made, with explicit attention given to clarifying and separating the values-based and science-based elements of a decision; identifying the impediments that make a decision difficult; and providing tools to overcome those impediments. There have been concerted efforts to apply formal decision analysis to ESA decisions, but the practice is not yet widespread across both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service (the Services). The chapter begins with an introduction to decision analysis and how it seeks to bridge the science-policy interface. In subsequent sections, I explore how a decision analyst might frame listing and reclassification decisions, recovery planning, section 7 consultation, budget allocations, and a few other ESA decisions, with an emphasis on two questions: for each type of decision, what policy clarifications does the decision maker need to make; and knowing the policy context, what type of scientific assessment is needed. In the final discussion, I identify common themes among the types of decisions, and offer thoughts on how decision analysis could be more widely used to integrate science into ESA decisions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

Context Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa , and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae . Objective To improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities. Methods We projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores. Results Computer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion. Conclusions The results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2018

A dirty dozen ways to die: Metrics and modifiers of mortality driven by drought and warming for a tree species

Tree mortality events driven by drought and warmer temperature, often amplified by pests and pathogens, are emerging as one of the predominant climate change impacts on plants. Understanding and predicting widespread tree mortality events in the future is vital as they affect ecosystem goods and services provided by forests and woodlands, including carbon storage needed to help offset warming. Additionally, if extensive enough, tree die-off events can influence not only local climate but also climate and vegetation elsewhere via ecoclimate teleconnections. Consequently, recent efforts have focused on improving predictions of tree mortality. One of the most commercially important genera of trees is Pinus , and the most studied species globally for drought-induced tree mortality is piñon pine, Pinus edulis . Numerous metrics have been developed in association with predicting mortality thresholds or variations in mortality for this species. In this article, we compiled metrics associated with drought and warming related mortality that were developed for P. edulis or for which P. edulis was a key example species used in a calculation or prediction. We grouped these metrics into three categories: (i) those related to simple climate variables, (ii) those related to physiological responses, and (iii) those that require multi-step calculations or modeling using climate, ecohydrological, and/or ecophysiological data; and we identified the spatial-temporal scale of each of these metrics. We also compiled factors shown to modify rates or sensitivities of mortality. The metrics to predict mortality include empirical ones which often have implicit linkages to expected mechanisms, and more mechanistic ones related to physiological drivers. The metrics for P. edulis have similarities with those available for other species of Pinus . Expected future mortality events will provide an opportunity to observationally and experimentally test and compare these metrics related to tree mortality for P. edulis via near-term ecological forecasting. The metrics for P. edulis may also be useful as potential analogs for other genera. Improving predictions of tree mortality for this species and others will be increasingly important as an aid to move toward anticipatory management.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

USGS2008

Rank clocks and plant community dynamics

Summarizing complex temporal dynamics in communities is difficult to achieve in a way that yields an intuitive picture of change. Rank clocks and rank abundance statistics provide a graphical and analytical framework for displaying and quantifying community dynamics. We used rank clocks, in which the rank order abundance for each species is plotted over time in temporal clockwise direction, to display temporal changes in species abundances and richness. We used mean rank shift and proportional species persistence to quantify changes in community structure in long‐term data sets from fertilized and control plots in a late successional old field, frequently and infrequently burned tallgrass prairie, and Chihuahuan desert grassland and shrubland communities. Rank clocks showed that relatively constant species richness masks considerable temporal dynamics in relative species abundances. In the old field, fertilized plots initially experienced high mean rank shifts that stabilized rapidly below that of unfertilized plots. Rank shifts were higher in infrequently burned vs. annually burned tallgrass prairie and in desert grassland compared to shrubland vegetation. Proportional persistence showed that arid grasslands were more dynamic than mesic grasslands. We conclude that rank clocks and rank abundance statistics provide important insights into community dynamics that are often hidden by traditional univariate approaches.

Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico↗

USGS1991

Growth rate is negatively correlated with hatch date in Black Brant

Arctic geese nest in a highly seasonal environment in which ungrazed plants reach peak nitrogen concentrations when goslings hatch (Sedinger and Raveling 1986). Grazing by geese prolongs peak nutrient concentrations but reduces food availability. This should cause nutrient availability to decline seasonally. Here, we test the hypothesis that late-hatching goslings of Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) grow more slowly than those hatching early. We substracted the sizes of wild goslings from those of captive-reared goslings of the same age and regressed the differences against hatch date. Differences between wild- and captive-reared goslings for body mass, tarsus length, and culmen length were significantly negatively related to hatch date; i.e., late-hatching wild goslings were smaller than those hatching early, after accounting for age. We detected no between-year difference in gosling size, but male goslings were larger than females of the same age for all measures. Egg size was only weakly associated with size of goslings 1 mo after hatching, but we detected no effect of other brood characteristics on growth. Seasonal variation in gosling growth rate may favor early nesting in arctic geese.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Global resorption efficiencies of trace elements in leaves of terrestrial plants

Leaf nutrient resorption is a critical nutrient conservation strategy. Previous studies focus mainly on resorption patterns of macronutrients, but resorption patterns of trace elements remain poorly understood. A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the general patterns of the leaf resorption of eight trace elements [i.e. copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), zinc (Zn), boron (B), manganese (Mn), sodium (Na), aluminium (Al) and iron (Fe)], and a macronutrient [i.e. sulphur (S)] using data collected from 53 published studies. Sulphur (49.6%) had the highest average resorption efficiency followed by Cu (30.3%), Mo (29.5%), Zn (19.5%) and B (17.6%). Two structural elements, Na and Mn, were not resorbed, whereas two potentially toxic elements, Al (−55.6%) and Fe (−25.4%), were accumulated in senesced leaves. Both climatic factors and growth types affected leaf nutrient resorption efficiency, but the magnitudes and directions of the effects differed greatly between S and the trace elements. The resorption efficiencies of S, Cu, Mo and Zn decreased as leaf nutrient concentrations increased, but the structural or potentially toxic elements (i.e. B, Mn, Na, Fe and Al) presented no response or opposite trends. Our results provide global mean resorption efficiencies of trace elements for the first time, and highlight that structural and potentially toxic elements have relatively lower or no leaf resorption, which should be fully considered in biogeochemical models.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS1989

Water resources of the Fond du Lac Indian Reservation, east-central Minnesota

Water resources in the Fond du Lac Indian Reservation meet the present (1987) needs for drinking-water supplies and other household uses with respect to water quality and quantity, and provide valuable ecological, recreational, and aesthetic benefits. Total annual water use in the Reservation is about 36.5 million gallons per year and per capita use is about 100 gallons per day. Practically all the water is used for domestic supply. Ground water is the source of all water supplies in the Reservation. Three aquifers are the source of ground water in the Reservation. Unconfined-drift aquifers consist of surficial outwash that extends over one third of the Reservation. Confined-drift aquifers consist of sand and gravel deposits that occur discontinuously at depths of 50 to 150 feet throughout the Reservation. The third aquifer is in crystalline bedrock that underlies the glacial drift. Surface-water resources in the Reservation consist of numerous wetlands, many shallow lakes, and streams that drain five basins. All the basins in the Reservation are part of the St. Louis River drainage system, except for a small area in the southcentral part of the Reservation that is part of the Kettle River basin. Stoney Brook, which is the major stream, drains three fourths of the Reservation. Average discharge from Stoney Brook during the 1984 water year was 82 cubic feet per second. The lakes in the Reservation, which are shallow and small, have a combined surface area of about 3,000 acres. Concentrations of constituents in ground-water samples met recommended and regulated limits set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water except for samples collected from wells in the unconfined-drift aquifer that suggested limits for nitrate (one sample), iron (two samples), and manganese (six samples), were exceeded. Quality of water in the lakes and streams is suitable for native forms of plant and animal life.

Minnesota↗

USGS2016

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine ( Cryptostegia grandiflora ) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological knowledge with species distribution modeling for early detection and targeted surveying of recently established invasive species.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2018

Resource competition model predicts zonation and increasing nutrient use efficiency along a wetland salinity gradient

A trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance has been hypothesized and empirically supported to explain the zonation of species across stress gradients for a number of systems. Since stress often reduces plant productivity, one might expect a pattern of decreasing productivity across the zones of the stress gradient. However, this pattern is often not observed in coastal wetlands that show patterns of zonation along a salinity gradient. To address the potentially complex relationship between stress, zonation, and productivity in coastal wetlands, we developed a model of plant biomass as a function of resource competition and salinity stress. Analysis of the model confirms the conventional wisdom that a trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance is a necessary condition for zonation. It also suggests that a negative relationship between salinity and production can be overcome if (1) the supply of the limiting resource increases with greater salinity stress or (2) nutrient use efficiency increases with increasing salinity. We fit the equilibrium solution of the dynamic model to data from Louisiana coastal wetlands to test its ability to explain patterns of production across the landscape gradient and derive predictions that could be tested with independent data. We found support for a number of the model predictions, including patterns of decreasing competitive ability and increasing nutrient use efficiency across a gradient from freshwater to saline wetlands. In addition to providing a quantitative framework to support the mechanistic hypotheses of zonation, these results suggest that this simple model is a useful platform to further build upon, simulate and test mechanistic hypotheses of more complex patterns and phenomena in coastal wetlands.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Analysis adapted from text mining quantitively reveals abrupt and gradual plant-community transitions after fire in sagebrush steppe

Context Plant communities vary both abruptly and gradually over time but differentiating between types of change can be difficult with existing classification and ordination methods. Structural topic modeling (STRUTMO), a text mining analysis, offers a flexible methodology for analyzing both types of temporal trends. Objectives Our objectives were to (1) identify post-fire dominant sagebrush steppe plant association types and ask how they vary with time at a landscape (multi-fire) scale and (2) ask how often major association changes are apparent at the plot-level scale. Methods We used STRUTMO and plant species cover collected between 2002–2022 across six large burn areas (1941 plots) in the Great Basin, USA to characterize landscape change in dominant plant association up to 14 years post-fire. In a case study, we assessed frequency of large annual changes (≥ 10% increase in one association and decrease in another) between associations at the plot-level scale. Results STRUTMO revealed 10 association types dominated by either perennial bunchgrasses, mixed perennial or annual grasses and forbs, or exotic annual grasses. Across all study fires, associations dominated by large-statured perennial bunchgrasses increased then stabilized, replacing the Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda )-dominated association. The cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum )-dominant association decreased and then increased. At the plot-level, bidirectional changes among associations occurred in ~ 75% of observations, and transitions from annual invaded to perennial associations were more common than the reverse. Conclusions The analysis revealed that associations dominated by some species (i.e. crested wheatgrass, Agropyron cristatum , Siberian wheatgrass, Agropyron fridgida , or medusahead, Taeniatherum caput-medusae ) were more stable than associations dominated by others (i.e. Sandberg bluegrass or cheatgrass). Strong threshold-like transitions were not observed at the multi-fire scale, despite frequent ephemeral plot-level changes.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗