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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources

USGS2004

The occurrence of lysogenic bacteria and microbial aggregates in the lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica form the coldest and driest ecosystem on Earth. Within this region there are a number of perennially ice-covered (3–6 m thick) lakes that support active microbial assemblages and have a paucity of metazoans. These lakes receive limited allochthonous input of carbon and nutrients, and primary productivity is limited to only 6 months per year owing to an absence of sunlight during the austral winters. In an effort to establish the role that bacteria and their associated viruses play in carbon and nutrient cycling in these lakes, indigenous bacteria, free bacteriophage, and lysogen abundances were determined. Total bacterial abundances (TDC) ranged from 3.80 × 10 4 to 2.58 × 10 7 cells mL −1 and virus-like particle (VLP) abundances ranged from 2.26 × 10 5 to 5.56 × 10 7 VLP mL −1 . VLP abundances were significantly correlated ( P < 0.05) with TDC, bacterial productivity (TdR), chlorophyll a (Chl a ), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP). Lysogenic bacteria, determined by induction with mitomycin C, made up between 2.0% and 62.5% of the total population of bacteria when using significant decreases and increases in TDC and VLP abundances, respectively, and 89.5% when using increases in VLP abundances as the sole criterion for a successful induction event. The contribution of viruses released from induced lysogens contributed <0.015% to the total viral production rate. Carbohydrate and protein based organic aggregates were abundant within the water column of the lakes and were heavily colonized by bacteria and VLPs. Alkaline phosphatase activity was detected within the matrix of the aggregates, implying phosphorus deficiency and consortial nutrient exchanges among microorganisms.

Microbial Ecology↗

USGS2004

Sources of nitrate contamination and age of water in large karstic springs of Florida

In response to concerns about the steady increase in nitrate concentrations over the past several decades in many of Florida's first magnitude spring waters (discharge ???2.8 m3/s), multiple isotopic and other chemical tracers were analyzed in water samples from 12 large springs to assess sources and timescales of nitrate contamination. Nitrate-N concentrations in spring waters ranged from 0.50 to 4.2 mg/L, and ??15N values of nitrate in spring waters ranged from 2.6 to 7.9 per mil. Most ??15N values were below 6 per mil indicating that inorganic fertilizers were the dominant source of nitrogen in these waters. Apparent ages of groundwater discharging from springs ranged from 5 to about 35 years, based on multi-tracer analyses (CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, 3H/3He) and a piston flow assumption; however, apparent tracer ages generally were not concordant. The most reliable spring-water ages appear to be based on tritium and 3He data, because concentrations of CFCs and SF6 in several spring waters were much higher than would be expected from equilibration with modern atmospheric concentrations. Data for all tracers were most consistent with output curves for exponential and binary mixing models that represent mixtures of water in the Upper Floridan aquifer recharged since the early 1960s. Given that groundwater transit times are on the order of decades and are related to the prolonged input of nitrogen from multiple sources to the aquifer, nitrate could persist in groundwater that flows toward springs for several decades due to slow transport of solutes through the aquifer matrix.

Environmental Geology↗

USGS2003

Assessing water quality at large geographic scales: Relations among land use, water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure

Data collected from 172 sites in 20 major river basins between 1993 and 1995 as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program were analyzed to assess relations among basinwide land use (agriculture, forest, urban, range), water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure. A multimetric approach was used to develop regionally referenced indices of fish community and riparian condition. Across large geographic areas, decreased riparian condition was associated with water-quality constituents indicative of nonpoint source inputs-total nitrogen and suspended sediment and basin-wide urban land use. Decreased fish community condition was associated with increases in total dissolved solids and rangeland use and decreases in riparian condition and agricultural land use. Fish community condition was relatively high even in areas where agricultural land use was relatively high (>50% of the basin). Although agricultural land use can have deleterious effects on fish communities, the results of this study suggest that other factors also may be important, including practices that regulate the delivery of nutrients, suspended sediments, and total dissolved solids into streams. Across large geographic scales, measures of water physicochemistry may be better indicators of fish community condition than basinwide land use. Whereas numerous studies have indicated that riparian restorations are successful in specific cases, this analysis suggests the universal importance of riparian zones to the maintenance and restoration of diverse fish communities in streams.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2003

Importance of Sediment-Water Interactions in Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho, USA: Management Implications

A field study at Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho, USA, was conducted between October 1998 and August 2001 to examine the potential importance of sediment-water interactions on contaminant transport and to provide the first direct measurements of the benthic flux of dissolved solutes of environmental concern in this lake. Because of potential ecological effects, dissolved zinc and orthophosphate were the solutes of primary interest. Results from deployments of an in situ flux chamber indicated that benthic fluxes of dissolved Zn and orthophosphate were comparable in magnitude to riverine inputs. Tracer analyses and benthic-community metrics provided evidence that solute benthic flux were diffusion-controlled at the flux-chamber deployment sites. That is, effects of biomixing (or bioturbation) and ground-water interactions did not strongly influence benthic flux. Remediation efforts in the river might not produce desired water-quality effects in the lake because imposed shifts in concentration gradients near the sediment-water interface would generate a benthic feedback response. Therefore, development of water-quality models to justify remediation strategies requires consideration of contaminant flux between the water column and underlying sediment in basins that have been affected by long-term (decadal) anthropogenic activities.

Idaho↗

USGS2004

Contemporary carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems in the Southeastern Plains of the United States

Quantifying carbon dynamics over large areas is frequently hindered by the lack of consistent, high-quality, spatially explicit land use and land cover change databases and appropriate modeling techniques. In this paper, we present a generic approach to address some of these challenges. Land cover change information in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion was derived from Landsat data acquired in 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 within 11 randomly located 20-km × 20-km sample blocks. Carbon dynamics within each of the sample blocks was simulated using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), capable of assimilating the variances and covariance of major input variables into simulations using an ensemble approach. Results indicate that urban and forest areas have been increasing, whereas agricultural land has been decreasing since 1973. Forest clear-cutting activity has intensified, more than doubling from 1973 to 2000. The Southeastern Plains has been acting as a carbon sink since 1973, with an average rate of 0.89 Mg C/ha/yr. Biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC), and harvested materials account for 56%, 34%, and 10% of the sink, respectively. However, the sink has declined continuously during the same period owing to forest aging in the northern part of the ecoregion and increased forest clear-cutting activities in the south. The relative contributions to the sink from SOC and harvested materials have increased, implying that these components deserve more study in the future. The methods developed here can be used to quantify the impacts of human management activities on the carbon cycle at landscape to global scales.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2009

Recent land cover history and nutrient retention in riparian wetlands

Wetland ecosystems are profoundly affected by altered nutrient and sediment loads received from anthropogenic activity in their surrounding watersheds. Our objective was to compare a gradient of agricultural and urban land cover history during the period from 1949 to 1997, with plant and soil nutrient concentrations in, and sediment deposition to, riparian wetlands in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. We observed that recent agricultural land cover was associated with increases in Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) concentrations in a native wetland plant species. Conversely, recent urban land cover appeared to alter receiving wetland environmental conditions by increasing the relative availability of P versus N, as reflected in an invasive, but not a native, plant species. In addition, increases in surface soil Fe content suggests recent inputs of terrestrial sediments associated specifically with increasing urban land cover. The observed correlation between urban land cover and riparian wetland plant tissue and surface soil nutrient concentrations and sediment deposition, suggest that urbanization specifically enhances the suitability of riparian wetland habitats for the invasive species Japanese stiltgrass [Microstegium vimenium (Trinius) A. Camus]. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2015

A framework for effective use of hydroclimate models in climate-change adaptation planning for managed habitats with limited hydrologic response data

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981–2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule’s Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3–100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10–20 to 40–60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

California↗

USGS2021

Identifying policy-relevant indicators for assessing landscape vegetation patterns to inform planning and management on multiple use public lands

Understanding the structure and composition of landscapes can empower agencies to effectively manage public lands for multiple uses while sustaining land health. Many landscape metrics exist, but they are not often used in public land decision-making. Our objectives were to (1) develop and (2) apply a process for identifying a core set of indicators that public land managers can use to understand landscape-level resource patterns on and around public lands. We first developed a process for identifying indicators that are grounded in policy, feasible to quantify using existing data and resources, and useful for managers. We surveyed landscape monitoring efforts by other agencies, gathered science and agency input on monitoring goals, and quantified the prevalence of potential indicators in agency land health standards to identify five landscape indicators: amount, distribution, patch size, structural connectivity, and diversity of vegetation types. We then conducted pilot applications in four bureau of land management (BLM) field offices in Arizona, California, and Colorado to refine procedures for quantifying the indicators and assess the utility of the indicators for managers. Results highlighted the dominance of upland and the limited extent of riparian/wetland vegetation communities, moderate connectivity of priority vegetation patches, and lower diversity of native vegetation types on BLM compared to non-BLM lands. Agency staff can use the indicators to inform the development of quantitative resource management objectives in land use plans, evaluate progress in meeting those objectives, quantify potential impacts of proposed actions, and as a foundation for an all-lands approach to landscape-level management across public lands.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

The presence of denitrifiers in bacterial communities of urban stormwater best management practices (BMPs)

Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are engineered structures that attempt to mitigate the impacts of stormwater, which can include nitrogen inputs from the surrounding drainage area. The goal of this study was to assess bacterial community composition in different types of stormwater BMP soils to establish whether a particular BMP type harbors more denitrification potential. Soil sampling took place over the summer of 2015 following precipitation events. Soils were sampled from four bioretention facilities, four dry ponds, four surface sand filters, and one dry swale. 16S rRNA gene analysis of extracted DNA and RNA amplicons indicated high bacterial diversity in the soils of all BMP types sampled. An abundance of denitrifiers was also indicated in the extracted DNA using presence/absence of nirS, nirK , and nosZ denitrification genes. BMP soil bacterial communities were impacted by the surrounding soil physiochemistry. Based on the identification of a metabolically-active community of denitrifiers, this study has indicated that denitrification could potentially occur under appropriate conditions in all types of BMP sampled, including surface sand filters that are often viewed as providing low potential for denitrification. The carbon content of incoming stormwater could be providing bacterial communities with denitrification conditions. The findings of this study are especially relevant for land managers in watersheds with legacy nitrogen from former agricultural land use.

Maryland↗

USGS2004

Dispersal forcing of a southern California river plumes, based on field and remote sensing observations

River plumes are important pathways of terrestrial materials entering the sea. In southern California, rivers are known to be the dominant source of littoral, shelf and basin sediment and coastal pollution, although a basic understanding of the dynamics of these river inputs does not exist. Here we evaluate forcing parameters of a southern California river plume using ship-based hydrographic surveys and satellite remote sensing measurements to provide the first insights of river dispersal dynamics in southern California. Our results suggest that plumes of the Santa Clara River are strongly influenced by river inertia, producing jet-like structures ~10 km offshore during annual recurrence (~two-year) flood events and ~30 km during exceptional (~10-year recurrence) floods. Upwelling-favorable winds may be strong following stormwater events and can alter dispersal pathways of thse plumes. Due to similar runoff relationships and other reported satellite observations, we hypothesize that interia-dominated dispersal may be an important characteristic of the small, mountainous rivers throughout southern California.

California↗

USGS2019

Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets

We apply the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) to determine the extent to which the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) temperature and precipitation climatologies from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) simulations support the large North American ice sheets that were prescribed as a boundary condition. We force CISM2 with eight PMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs), and an additional model, GENMOM. Seven GCMs simulate LGM climatologies that support positive surface mass balances of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets (LIS, CIS) consistent with where ice was prescribed in the GCMs. Two GCMs simulate July temperatures that are too warm to support the ice sheets. Four of the nine CISM2 simulations support ice sheets in Beringia, in absence of prescribed ice in the driving GCMs and in disagreement with geologic evidence that indicates the area remained ice-free during the LGM. We test the sensitivity of our results to a range of snow and ice positive degree-day factors, daily, monthly, and climatological temperature and precipitation inputs, and we evaluate the role of albedo and snow in the simulations. Areas with perennial snow in the GCM simulations correspond well to the presence of ice in the CISM2 simulation. GCMs with unrealistically low surface albedos over the LIS yield simulations that fail to simulate realistic ice sheets.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2018

Timescales of magmatic differentiation from alkali basalt to trachyte within the Harrat Rahat volcanic field, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

A fundamental goal of igneous petrology is to quantify the duration of time required to produce evolved magmas following influx of basalt into the crust. However, in many cases, complex field relations and/or the presence of a long-lived magmatic system make it difficult to assess how basaltic inputs relate to more evolved magmas, therefore, precluding calculation of meaningful timescales. Here, we present field relations, geochemistry, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages, and 36 Cl ages for volcanic rocks from the Harrat Rahat volcanic field, Saudi Arabia. These data document a systematic and repeated temporal progression from alkali basalt to trachyte for the youngest eruptives. From ~ 150 to ~ 17 ka the following eruptive sequence occurred four times: (1) alkali basalt, (2) hawaiite, mugearite, or benmoreite, and (3) trachyte. We interpret each eruptive sequence to result from injection of basalt into the crust, and its subsequent differentiation and eruption of progressively evolved magmas. We use the interval time between successive eruptions within a given sequence to calculate the duration of time required to produce trachyte from alkali basalt. Differentiation from alkali basalt to intermediate compositions (hawaiite, mugearite, benmoreite) took ≤ 2 kyr on average. Differentiation from intermediate compositions to trachyte took a maximum of 6.6 ± 3.5 to 22.5 ± 1.6 kyr. Thus, the total duration of differentiation was ~ 9 to ~ 25 kyr. Timescales presented here are insensitive to processes evoked to drive differentiation because they are based solely on the ages and compositions of eruptive products from a system characterized by a simple, repeated differentiation sequence.

Harrat Rahat volcanic field↗

USGS2016

Trophic dynamics of shrinking Subarctic lakes: naturally eutrophic waters impart resilience to rising nutrient and major ion concentrations

Shrinking lakes were recently observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions due to increased evaporation and permafrost degradation. Along with lake drawdown, these processes often boost aquatic chemical concentrations, potentially impacting trophic dynamics. In particular, elevated chemical levels may impact primary productivity, which may in turn influence populations of primary and secondary consumers. We examined trophic dynamics of 18 shrinking lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska, that had experienced pronounced increases in nutrient (>200 % total nitrogen, >100 % total phosphorus) and ion concentrations (>100 % for four major ions combined) from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, versus 37 stable lakes with relatively little chemical change over the same period. We found that phytoplankton stocks, as indexed by chlorophyll concentrations, remained unchanged in both shrinking and stable lakes from the 1980s to 2010s. Moving up the trophic ladder, we found significant changes in invertebrate abundance across decades, including decreased abundance of five of six groups examined. However, these decadal losses in invertebrate abundance were not limited to shrinking lakes, occurring in lakes with stable surface areas as well. At the top of the food web, we observed that probabilities of lake occupancy for ten waterbird species, including adults and chicks, remained unchanged from the period 1985-1989 to 2010-2012. Overall, our study lakes displayed a high degree of resilience to multi-trophic cascades caused by rising chemical concentrations. This resilience was likely due to their naturally high fertility, such that further nutrient inputs had little impact on waters already near peak production.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Popocatépetl Volcano↗

USGS2014

Constraining explosive volcanism: Subjective choices during estimates of eruption magnitude

When estimating the magnitude of explosive eruptions from their deposits, individuals make three sets of critical choices with respect to input data: the spacing of sampling sites, the selection of contour intervals to constrain the field measurements, and the hand contouring of thickness/isomass data, respectively. Volcanologists make subjective calls, as there are no accepted published protocols and few accounts of how these choices will impact estimates of eruption magnitude. Here, for the first time, we took a set of unpublished thickness measurements from the 1959 Kīlauea Iki pyroclastic fall deposit and asked 101 volcanologists worldwide to hand contour the data. First, there were surprisingly consistent volume estimates across maps with three different sampling densities. Second, the variability in volume calculations imparted by individuals’ choices of contours is also surprisingly low and lies between s  = 5 and 8 %. Third, volume estimation is insensitive to the extent to which different individuals “smooth” the raw data in constructing contour lines. Finally, large uncertainty is associated with the construction of the thinnest isopachs, which is likely to underestimate the actual trend of deposit thinning. The net result is that researchers can have considerable confidence in using volume or dispersal data from multiple authors and different deposits for comparative studies. These insights should help volcanologists around the world to optimize design and execution of field-based studies to characterize accurately the volume of pyroclastic deposits.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2021

A petrological and conceptual model of Mayon volcano (Philippines) as an example of an open-vent volcano

Mayon is a basaltic andesitic, open-vent volcano characterized by persistent passive degassing from the summit at 2463 m above sea level. Mid-size (<0.1 km3) and mildly explosive eruptions and occasional phreatic eruptions have occurred approximately every 10 years for over a hundred years. Mayon’s plumbing system structure, processes, and time scales driving its eruptions are still not well-known, despite being the most active volcano in the Philippines. We investigated the petrology and geochemistry of its crystal-rich lavas (~50 vol% phenocrysts) from nine historical eruptions between 1928 and 2009 and propose a conceptual model of the processes and magmatic architecture that led to the eruptions. The whole-rock geochemistry and mineral assemblage (plagioclase + orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + Fe-Ti oxide ± olivine) of the lavas have remained remarkably homogenous (54 wt% SiO2,~4 wt% MgO) from 1928 to 2009. However, electron microscope images and microprobe analyses of the phenocrysts and the existence of three types of glomerocrysts testify to a range of magmatic processes, including long-term magma residence, magma mixing, crystallization, volatile fluxing, and degassing. Multiple mineral-melt geothermobarometers suggest a relatively thermally buffered system at 1050±25 °C, with several magma residence zones, ranging from close to the surface, through reservoirs at ~4–5 km, and as deep as ~ 20 km. Diffusion chronometry on >200 orthopyroxene crystals reveal magma mixing timescales that range from a few days to about 65 years, but the majority are shorter than the decadal inter-eruptive repose period. This implies that magma intrusion at Mayon has been nearly continuous over the studied time period, with limited crystal recycling from one eruption to the next. The variety of plagioclase textures and zoning patterns reflect fluxing of volatiles from depth to shallower melts through which they eventually reach the atmosphere through an open conduit. The crystal-rich nature of the erupted magmas may have developed during each inter-eruptive period. We propose that Mayon has behaved over almost 100 years as a steady state system, with limited variations in eruption frequency, degassing flux, magma composition, and crystal content that are mainly determined by the amount and composition of deep magma and volatile input in the system. We explore how Mayon volcano’s processes and working model can be related to other open-vent mafic and water-rich systems such as Etna, Stromboli, Villarrica, or Llaima. Finally, our understanding of open-vent, persistently active volcanoes is rooted in historical observations, but volcano behavior can evolve over longer time frames. We speculate that these volcanoes produce specific plagioclase textures that can be used to identify similar volcanic behavior in the geologic record.

Mayon volcano↗

USGS2022

Volcano geodesy using InSAR in 2020: The past and next decades

The study of volcano deformation has grown significantly through they year 2020 since the development of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) in the 1990s. This relatively new data source, which provides evidence of changes in subsurface magma storage and pressure without the need for ground-based equipment, has matured during the past decade. It now provides a means to address previously inaccessible questions and offers input to increasingly complex models of magmatic processes. Here, we review how technological advances in InSAR during 2010-2020 have facilitated our ability to monitor and interpret volcanic processes, primarily through rapid and accurate observations of the changing surfaces at active volcanoes worldwide. Specifically, we examine how current systems achieve excellent resolution in time and space, provide global coverage, and generate products that are easy to use by non-specialists—factors that have often limited the practical study of volcanoes using radar measurements. We also look to the future, offering our perspective about how advancements in technology and data management in the decade to come will increase the value and accessibility of InSAR applied to the geodetic study of volcanoes and monitoring of hazardous volcanic processes. New developments will include the launch of additional satellites by both public space agencies and private companies, as well as implementation of algorithms for exploiting the growing volumes of data. To meet their full potential, these efforts will require coordination between data users and data providers so that the relevant imagery is acquired, made available to volcanologists in a timely fashion, and utilized to assess and mitigate volcanic hazards.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2022

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: The distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗