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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources

Soil carbon storage following road removal and timber harvesting in redwood forests

Soil carbon storage plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is important for sustaining forest productivity. Removal of unpaved forest roads has the potential for increasing carbon storage in soils on forested terrain as treated sites revegetate and soil properties improve on the previously compacted road surfaces. We compared soil organic carbon (SOC) content at several depths on treated roads to SOC in adjacent second-growth forests and old-growth redwood forests in California, determined whether SOC in the upper 50 cm of soil varies with the type of road treatment, and assessed the relative importance of site-scale and landscape-scale variables in predicting SOC accumulation in treated road prisms and second-growth redwood forests. Soils were sampled at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths on roads treated by two methods (decommissioning and full recontouring), and in adjacent second-growth and old-growth forests in north coastal California. Road treatments spanned a period of 32 years, and covered a range of geomorphic and vegetative conditions. SOC decreased with depth at all sites. Treated roads on convex sites exhibited higher SOC than on concave sites, and north aspect sites had higher SOC than south aspect sites. SOC at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths did not differ significantly between decommissioned roads (treated 18–32 years previous) and fully recontoured roads (treated 2–12 years previous). Nevertheless, stepwise multiple regression models project higher SOC developing on fully recontoured roads in the next few decades. The best predictors for SOC on treated roads and in second-growth forest incorporated aspect, vegetation type, soil depth, lithology, distance from the ocean, years since road treatment (for the road model) and years since harvest (for the forest model). The road model explained 48% of the variation in SOC in the upper 50 cm of mineral soils and the forest model, 54%

California↗

Diffusion model validation and interpretation of stable isotopes in river and lake ice

The stable isotope stratigraphy of river- and lake-ice archives winter hydroclimatic conditions, and can potentially be used to identify changing water sources or to provide important insights into ice formation processes and growth rates. However, accurate interpretations rely on known isotopic fractionation during ice growth. A one-dimensional diffusion model of the liquid boundary layer adjacent to an advancing solid interface, originally developed to simulate solute rejection by growing crystals, has been used without verification to describe non-equilibrium fractionation during congelation ice growth. Results are not in agreement, suggesting the presence of important uncertainties. In this paper we seek validation of the diffusion model for this application using large-scale laboratory experiments with controlled freezing rates and frequent sampling. We obtained consistent, almost constant, isotopic boundary layer thicknesses over a representative range of ice growth rates on both quiescent and well-mixed water. With the 18O boundary layer thickness from the laboratory, the model successfully quantified reduced river-ice growth rates relative to those of a nearby lake. These results were more representative and easier to obtain than those of a conventional thermal ice-growth model. This diffusion model validation and boundary layer thickness determination provide a powerful tool for interpreting the stable isotope stratigraphy of floating ice. The laboratory experiment also replicated successive fractionation events in response to a freeze-thaw-refreeze cycle, providing a mechanism for apparent ice fractionation that exceeds equilibrium. Analysis of the composition of snow ice and frazil ice in river and lake cores indicated surprising similarities between these ice forms. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.

Alaska↗

Biotic and abiotic factors affecting short-term survival of two age-0 Rainbow Trout strains in Colorado streams

Both biotic and abiotic factors can influence the survival and growth of age-0 salmonids. Diseases, such as whirling disease, can also affect salmonid demographics and population dynamics. Here, we conducted a supplementary analysis and evaluated specific stream characteristics that may have been responsible for the differences in growth and survival of two whirling disease resistant Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss strains observed by Avila et al. (2018). We used regression modeling to analyze the influence of the biotic and abiotic characteristics of nine streams on the short-term apparent survival and growth of two Rainbow Trout strains, 5,000 German Rainbow Trout and 5,000 German Rainbow Trout × Colorado River Rainbow Trout in each stream. Akaike's information criterion (AIC c ) model selection was used to identify the factors that most affected short-term survival and growth. Average stream temperature had the largest (positive) effect, β temp = 0.060, on short-term survival. Rainbow Trout strain, average stream temperature (β temp = 1.55), competitor biomass (β competitor biomass = −0.002), and predator number (β predator number = 0.01) additively affected short-term growth. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors are important short-term determinants of Rainbow Trout poststocking performance and may account for the differences in survival and growth that we observed among stocking locations.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Bioenergetics model for the nonnative Redside Shiner

Objective Redside Shiner Richardsonius balteatus has expanded from its native range in the Pacific Northwest region of North America to establish populations in six other western states. This expansion has fueled concerns regarding competition between Redside Shiner and native species, including salmonids. We developed a bioenergetic model for Redside Shiner, providing a powerful tool to quantify its trophic role in invaded ecosystems and evaluate potential impacts on native species. Methods Mass- and temperature-dependent functions for consumption and respiration were fit based on controlled laboratory experiments of maximum consumption rates and routine metabolic rates using intermittent-flow respirometry, across a range of fish sizes (0.6–27.3 g) and temperatures (5–31°C). Laboratory growth experiments were conducted to corroborate model performance across different temperatures and feeding rates. Result Initial bioenergetic simulations of long-term growth experiments indicated large model error for predicted consumption and growth, and deviations from observed responses varied systematically as a function of daily consumption rate (J·g −1 ·d −1 ) and water temperature. A growth rate error correction function was developed and included in the bioenergetics model framework on a daily time step, resulting in decreased absolute model error in all experimental groups. Predicted values from the corrected model were highly correlated with observed values (�2; consumption = 0.97, final weight = 0.99) and unbiased. These results show that the optimal temperature for Redside Shiner growth (18°C) exceeds that of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. by 2–6°C under a scenario of high food availability and moderate food quality. Conclusion Consequently, increases in water temperature associated with climate change may favor growth and expansion of Redside Shiner populations, while negatively affecting some salmonids. The bioenergetics model presented here provides the necessary first step in quantifying trophic impacts in sensitive ecosystems where Redside Shiner have invaded or in ecosystems where anadromous salmonid reintroductions are being considered.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

Environmental Management↗

Effects of tidal shallowing and deepening on phytoplankton production dynamics: A modeling study

Processes influencing estuarine phytoplankton growth occur over a range of time scales, but many conceptual and numerical models of estuarine phytoplankton production dynamics neglect mechanisms occurring on the shorter (e.g., intratidal) time scales. We used a numerical model to explore the influence of short time-scale variability in phytoplankton sources and sinks on long-term growth in an idealized water column that shallows and deepens with the semidiurnal tide. Model results show that tidal fluctuations in water surface elevation can determine whether long-term phytoplankton growth is positive or negative. Hourly-scale interactions influencing weekly-scale to monthly-scale phytoplankton dynamics include intensification of the depth-averaged benthic grazing effect by water column shallowing and enhancement of water column photosynthesis when solar noon coincides with low tide. Photosynthesis and benthic consumption may modulate over biweekly time scales due to spring-neap fluctuations in tidal range and the 15-d cycle of solar noon-low tide phasing. If tidal range is a large fraction of mean water depth, then tidal shallowing and deepening may significantly influence net phytoplankton growth. In such a case, models or estimates of long-term phytoplankton production dynamics that neglect water surface fluctuations may overestimate or underestimate net growth and could even predict the wrong sign associated with net growth rate.

Estuaries↗

Nitrogen-bedrock interactions regulate multi-element nutrient limitation and sustainability in forests

Nutrient limitation of tree growth can intensify when nutrients are lost to forest harvest, creating challenges for forest growth and sustainability. Forest harvest accelerates nutrient loss by removing nutrient-containing biomass and by increasing nutrient leaching, shaping patterns of nutrient depletion that cause long-term shifts in nutrient limitation. Nitrogen most frequently limits tree growth, but where nitrogen is abundant, nutrient limitation often shifts to phosphorus and base cations, depending on soil mineralogy. We used the process-based biogeochemical model NutsFor to evaluate how multiple elements can limit long-term forest growth via interactions between soil nitrogen (low vs. high nitrogen) and soil mineralogy (sedimentary vs. basaltic bedrock). Simulations were run for 525 years with 40-year harvest intervals for managed Douglas-fir forests of the Oregon Coast Range. In low nitrogen sites, nutrient limitation switched after several centuries from nitrogen to phosphorus, as cycles of forest growth and harvest depleted soil organic phosphorus pools. In contrast, high nitrogen sites displayed severe base cation depletion and reduced tree growth within only one to two rotations, with sedimentary bedrock sites limited by calcium and basaltic sites by both calcium and potassium. Harvesting stimulated the largest fractional losses of nitrogen and potassium across all simulations, and additionally of calcium in high nitrogen sites. These multi-element simulations of interactions among harvesting, soil nitrogen, and bedrock type provide a set of testable predictions to guide monitoring and changes in management aimed at sustaining long-term forest productivity across a wide range of soil biogeochemical conditions.

Biogeochemistry↗

Disease protection and allelopathic interactions of seed-transmitted endophytic pseudomonads of invasive reed grass ( Phragmites australis )

Background and aims Non-native Phragmites australis (haplotype M) is an invasive grass that decreases biodiversity and produces dense stands. We hypothesized that seeds of Phragmites carry microbes that improve seedling growth, defend against pathogens and maximize capacity of seedlings to compete with other plants. Methods We isolated bacteria from seeds of Phragmites , then evaluated representatives for their capacities to become intracellular in root cells, and their effects on: 1.) germination rates and seedling growth, 2.) susceptibility to damping-off disease, and 3.) mortality and growth of competitor plant seedlings (dandelion ( Taraxacum officionale F. H. Wigg) and curly dock ( Rumex crispus L.)). Results Ten strains (of 23 total) were identified and characterized; seven were identified as Pseudomonas spp. Strains Sandy LB4 ( Pseudomonas fluorescens ) and West 9 ( Pseudomonas sp.) entered root meristems and became intracellular. These bacteria improved seed germination in Phragmites and increased seedling root branching in Poa annua . They increased plant growth and protected plants from damping off disease. Sandy LB4 increased mortality and reduced growth rates in seedlings of dandelion and curly dock. Conclusions Phragmites plants associate with endophytes to increase growth and disease resistance, and release bacteria into the soil to create an environment that is favorable to their seedlings and less favorable to competitor plants.

Plant and Soil↗

Influence of soil microbiota on Taxodium distichum seedling performance during extreme flooding events

Plant associations with soil microbiota can modulate tree seedling growth and survival via mutualistic or antagonistic interactions. It is uncertain, however, whether soil microbiota influence seedling growth of coastal trees when exposed to extreme flooding regimes. We evaluated the role of soil microbes in promoting baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum ) seedling performance under different inundation scenarios and determined the influence of flooding on the colonization of in planta beneficial microbes. Seedlings reared in sterile and non-sterile soil were exposed to three different flooding regimes historically experienced in Louisiana swamps. Seedling growth was assessed, and the colonization by beneficial symbionts such as arbuscular mycorrizhal fungi (AMF), and dark septate endophytes (DSE) was evaluated in harvested roots. Seedlings grown in sterile soil had six times higher growth than seedlings reared in non-sterile soil. As a result, we evaluated pathogen load in the roots by assessing oomycete colonization. Flooding influenced the in planta colonization of DSE and oomycetes, but did not affect the colonization of mutualist AMF fungi. DSE and oomycetes were rarer in flooded conditions, while AMF remained abundant. Seedling biomass production was not correlated with in planta fungal colonization or pathogen load. Soil microbiota can negatively influence baldcypress seedling growth, and no growth benefit was evidenced from the root colonization of mutualist fungi. Flooding can modify baldcypress-fungal interactions by diminishing colonization of DSE. Overall, baldycpress seedlings were more sensitive to the presence of microbiota than flooding, and thus restoration efforts should focus on having a better understanding of plant–microbe interactions in swamps.

Louisiana↗

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in heterogeneous continuous and discrete-patch systems

Theoretical models of populations on a system of two connected patches previously have shown that when the two patches differ in maximum growth rate and carrying capacity, and in the limit of high diffusion, conditions exist for which the total population size at equilibrium exceeds that of the ideal free distribution, which predicts that the total population would equal the total carrying capacity of the two patches. However, this result has only been shown for the Pearl-Verhulst growth function on two patches and for a single-parameter growth function in continuous space. Here, we provide a general criterion for total population size to exceed total carrying capacity for three commonly used population growth rates for both heterogeneous continuous and multi-patch heterogeneous landscapes with high population diffusion. We show that a sufficient condition for this situation is that there is a convex positive relationship between the maximum growth rate and the parameter that, by itself or together with the maximum growth rate, determines the carrying capacity, as both vary across a spatial region. This relationship occurs in some biological populations, though not in others, so the result has ecological implications.

Theoretical Ecology↗

A comparative study of 28 culture media for Trichomonas gallinae

1. 1. A study was made of the ability of 28 different culture media to support growth of 5 strains of Trichomonas gallinae with their normally associated bacteria. A standard inoculum of 50 protozoa was used, and the cultures were incubated at 35 ?C. Based upon the number of positive cultures obtained, abundance of growth, and number of strains which grew in a given medium, the most satisfactory were Ringer-Loeffler serum, saline-Loeffler serum, and saline-serum. 2. 2. Pigeon serum used alone in a simple saline solution produced abundant growth and when added to other nutrients greatly enhanced the medium. Autoclaving of the serum appeared to have no effect on its growth promoting qualities. 3. 3. Neither egg yolk nor egg albumin alone appeared capable of supporting appreciable growth of T. gallinae. 4. 4. In general, the heavier the bacterial population supported by a medium the poorer the growth of T. gallinae. 5. 5. Strains of T. gallinae differ in their culturability. One strain grew in 82% of the media tested, another only in 43%.

Experimental Parasitology↗

New uranium-series ages of the Waimanalo Limestone, Oahu, Hawaii: implications for sea level during the last interglacial period

The Waimanalo Formation (limestone) of Oahu has been correlated with the last interglacial period based on U-series dating of corals by T.-L. Ku and colleagues. The limestone consists of growth-position corals and overlying coral conglomerate. An apparent bimodal distribution of ages for the growth-position corals (mean age = 133 ka) and the overlying coral conglomerate (mean age = 119 ka) has been interpreted to represent two distinct high stands of sea that occurred within the last interglacial period. Both growth-position corals and overlying, conglomerate coral occur in an outcrop east of Kaena Point and consist mainly of Pocillopora and Porites. U-seriesages of growth-position corals that show closed-system conditions are 120 ± 3 ka and 127 ± 4 ka; overlying conglomerate corals have U-seriesages that range from 120 ± 3 ka to 138 ± 4 ka. At Kahe Point, conglomerate corals have ages of 120 ± 3 ka and 134 ± 4 ka. These data show that the growth position corals are not systematically older than the conglomerate corals; thus, there is no evidence for two distinct high stands of sea. Waimanalo deposits at Kahe Point and Mokapu Point (new U-seriesages of 134 ± 4 ka and 127 ± 3 ka) have beach deposits as high as 12.5 m and, at Mokapu Point, growth-position corals as high as 8.5 m. A last-interglacial sea-level stand of +8.5 to +12.5 m conflicts with estimates of +6 m from a number of tectonically stable coastlines and islands in the western Atlantic Ocean. We infer, therefore, that Oahu may be undergoing uplift at a low rate. This uplift may be due to compensatory lithospheric flexure, because the island of Hawaii has been subsiding throughout much of the Quaternary from volcanic loading. Because of this possible uplift, Oahu and islands like it elsewhere in the Pacific cannot be used as reference points for sealevel during the last interglacial period.

Hawai'i↗

Empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate, with applications in the San Francisco Bay estuary

An empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate is developed and fit to measurements of photosynthesis selected from the literature. Because the model acknowledges existence of: 1) a light-temperature interaction (by allowing optimum irradiance to vary with temperature), 2) light inhibition, 3) temperature inhibition, and 4) a salinity effect, it accurately estimates photosynthetic rates measured over a wide range of temperature, light intensity, and salinity. Integration of predicted instantaneous rate of photosynthesis with time and depth yields daily net carbon assimilation (pg C cell −1 day −1 ) in a mixed layer of specified depth, when salinity, temperature, daily irradiance and extinction coefficient are known. The assumption of constant carbon quota (pg C cell −1 ) allows for prediction of mean specific growth rate (day −1 ), which can be used in numerical models of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics. Application of the model to northern San Francisco Bay clearly demonstrates the limitation of growth by low light availability, and suggests that large population densities of S. costatum observed during summer months are not the result of active growth in the central deep channels (where growth rates are consistently predicted to be negative). But predicted growth rates in the lateral shallows are positive during summer and fall, thus offering a testable hypothesis that shoals are the only sites of active population growth by S. costatum (and perhaps other neritic diatoms) in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay.

California↗

Effects of hexazinone and atrazine on the physiology and endocrinology of smolt development in Atlantic salmon

Exposure to hexazinone (HEX) and atrazine (ATZ), highly mobile and widely used herbicides along rivers in the United States, is potentially harmful to Atlantic salmon, which have been listed as an endangered species. To determine the effects of these contaminants on smolt development, juvenile Atlantic salmon were exposed under flow-through conditions to 100 μg l −1 HEX, 10 and 100 μg l −1 ATZ in fresh water (FW) for 21 days at 10 °C beginning in mid-April. Twelve fish per treatment were sampled in FW, following a 24 h seawater (SW) challenge and after growth for 3 months in SW. Exposure to 100 μg l −1 HEX or 10 μg l −1 ATZ caused no mortalities of smolts in FW or after SW challenge, while 9% of the fish exposed to 100 μg l −1 ATZ died during exposure. Fish exposed to 100 μg l −1 ATZ reduced feeding after 10 days of exposure and had an impaired growth rate in FW and during the first month in SW; compensatory growth occurred in the second and third month in SW. HEX and ATZ at 10 μg l −1 exposure had no effect on plasma levels of cortisol, growth hormone (GH), insulin growth factor I (IGF-I), thyroxine (T 4 ) and plasma 3,5,3′-triiodo- l -thyronine (T 3 ), Cl − , Mg 2+ , Na + , Ca 2+ in FW or after SW challenge. FW smolts exposed to 100 μg l −1 ATZ had decreased plasma Cl − , Mg 2+ , Na + and Ca 2+ ions and increased cortisol. No effect on plasma levels of GH, IGF-I, T 4 or T 3 was found in FW smolts exposed to 100 μg l −1 ATZ. Following SW challenge, fish previously exposed to 100 μg l −1 ATZ had significant increases in hematocrit, plasma cortisol, Cl − , Mg 2+ , Na + , Ca 2+ and a decrease in T 4 and T 3 . It is concluded that under the conditions imposed in this study, HEX does not affect salinity tolerance of Atlantic salmon smolts, while ATZ causes ionoregulatory, growth and endocrine disturbance.

Aquatic Toxicology↗

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

The relative contributions of disease and insects in the decline of a long-lived tree: a stochastic demographic model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)

Pathogens and insect pests have become increasingly important drivers of tree mortality in forested ecosystems. Unfortunately, understanding the relative contributions of multiple mortality agents to the population decline of trees is difficult, because it requires frequent measures of tree survival, growth, and recruitment, as well as the incidence of mortality agents. We present a population model of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ), a high-elevation tree undergoing rapid decline in western North America. The loss of whitebark pine is thought to be primarily due to an invasive pathogen (white pine blister rust; Cronartium ribicola ) and a native insect (mountain pine beetle; Dendroctonus ponderosae ). We utilized seven plots in Crater Lake National Park (Oregon, USA) where 1220 trees were surveyed for health and the presence of blister rust and beetle activity annually from 2003–2014, except 2008. We constructed size-based projection matrices for nine years and calculated the deterministic growth rate (λ) using an average matrix and the stochastic growth rate (λ s ) by simulation for whitebark pine in our study population. We then assessed the roles of blister rust and beetles by calculating λ and λ s using matrices in which we removed trees with blister rust and, separately, trees with beetles. We also conducted life-table response experiments (LTRE) to determine which demographic changes contributed most to differences in λ between ambient conditions and the two other scenarios. The model suggests that whitebark pine in our plots are currently declining 1.1% per year (λ = 0.9888, λ s = 0.9899). Removing blister rust from the models resulted in almost no increase in growth (λ = 0.9916, λ s = 0.9930), while removing beetles resulted in a larger increase in growth (λ = 1.0028, λ s = 1.0045). The LTRE demonstrated that reductions in stasis of the three largest size classes due to beetles contributed most to the smaller λ in the ambient condition. Our work demonstrates a method for assessing the relative effects of different mortality agents on declining tree populations, and it shows that the effects of insects and pathogens can be markedly different from one another. In our study, beetle activity significantly reduced tree population growth while a pathogen had minimal effect, thus management actions to stabilize our study population will likely need to include reducing beetle activity.

Forest Ecology and Management↗