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Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics. The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence. Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large proportion of good-growth habitat and a sustained period of optimal growth habitat in the summer, without any periods of lethal oxythermal habitat. For Madison and Pearl Lakes, examples of important cool-water fish, particularly game fish, include northern pike ( Esox lucius ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), and black crappie ( Pomoxis nigromaculatus ); examples of important warm-water fish include bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ), and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Sensitivity analyses were completed to understand lake response effects through the use of controlled departures on certain calibrated model parameters and input nutrient loads. These sensitivity analyses also operated as land-use change scenarios because alterations in agricultural practices, for example, could potentially increase or decrease nutrient loads.

Minnesota↗

Water-balance techniques for determining available soil-water storage for selected sandy and clay soil study sites in Cass County, North Dakota, 2016–17

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, collected field and remotely sensed data on precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil-water content to determine available soil-water storage (AWS) at six study sites on sandy and clay soils in Cass County, North Dakota. Data were collected at all the study sites from May 1–October 31, 2016, and from May 1–October 24, 2017. Estimated daily AWS was determined using daily meteorological and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data obtained from various climate stations, and estimated monthly AWS was determined using monthly meteorological and PET data and monthly ET data determined using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model. AWS during 2016 and 2017 was determined at daily and monthly time steps because of data availability and to assess results using varying time steps. Comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS at the Brewer Lake site indicated poor agreement during May–October 2016 and May–October 2017. Comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS at the Embden East and Embden West sites indicated poor and fair agreement respectively. At the Lynchburg Crop and Lynchburg Grass sites, comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS indicated fair and good relations, respectively, even with the possible effects of soil cracks. Mean estimated values of daily runoff plus soil percolation for the four sandy soil sites indicated that a maximum of about 19 percent of the estimated runoff plus soil percolation could be considered runoff and that the remaining 81 percent could be considered soil percolation, and for the two clay soil sites about 13 percent of the runoff plus soil percolation could have been considered runoff and about 87 percent could have been considered soil percolation. Results indicated little difference between using monthly PET or monthly ET in water-balance equations to estimate monthly AWS for the grouped sandy soil sites, and only slightly better results were obtained using monthly PET than monthly ET to estimate monthly AWS for the grouped clay soil study sites. Overall, the monthly water-balance models did not perform as well as the daily water-balance models for determining AWS at the six study sites. Additional data collection from a longer-period study and adjustments to the models may improve results from the monthly water-balance techniques.

North Dakota↗

Development of regional curves relating bankfull-channel geometry and discharge to drainage area for streams in Pennsylvania and selected areas of Maryland

Natural-stream designs are commonly based on the dimensions of the bankfull channel, which is capable of conveying discharges that transport sediment without excessive erosion or deposition. Regional curves relate bankfull-channel geometry and discharge to drainage area in watersheds with similar runoff characteristics and commonly are utilized by practitioners of natural-stream design to confirm or refute selection of the field-identified bankfull channel. Data collected from 66 streamflow-gaging stations and associated stream reaches between December 1999 and December 2003 were used in one-variable ordinary least-squares regression analyses to develop regional curves relating drainage area to cross-sectional area, discharge, width, and mean depth of the bankfull channel. Watersheds draining to these stations are predominantly within the Piedmont, Ridge and Valley, and Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Provinces of Pennsylvania and northern Maryland. Statistical analyses of physiography, percentage of watershed area underlain by carbonate bedrock, and percentage of watershed area that is glaciated indicate that carbonate bedrock, not physiography or glaciation, has a controlling influence on the slope of regional curves. Regional curves developed from stations in watersheds underlain by 30 percent or less carbonate bedrock generally had steeper slopes than the corresponding relations developed from watersheds underlain by greater than 30 percent carbonate bedrock. In contrast, there is little evidence to suggest that regional curves developed from stations in the Piedmont or Ridge and Valley Physiographic Province are different from the corresponding relations developed from stations in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province. On the basis of these findings, regional curves are presented to represent two settings that are independent of physiography: (1) noncarbonate settings characterized by watersheds with carbonate bedrock underlying 30 percent or less of watershed area, and (2) carbonate settings characterized by watersheds with carbonate bedrock underlying greater than 30 percent of watershed area. All regional curves presented in this report have slopes that are significantly different from zero and normally distributed residuals that vary randomly with drainage area. Drainage area explains the most variability in bankfull cross-sectional area and bankfull discharge in the noncarbonate setting (R2 = 0.92 for both). Less variability is explained in bankfull width and depth (R2 = 0.81 and 0.72, respectively). Regional curves representing the carbonate setting are generally not as statistically robust as the corresponding noncarbonate relations because there were only 11 stations available to develop these curves and drainage area cannot explain variance resulting from karst features. The carbonate regional curves generally are characterized by less confidence, lower R2 values, and higher residual standard errors. Poor representation by watersheds less than 40 mi2 causes the carbonate regional curves for bankfull discharge, cross-sectional area, and mean depth to be disproportionately influenced by the smallest watershed (values of Cook's Distance range from 3.6 to 8.4). Additional bankfull discharge and channel-geometry data from small watersheds might reduce this influence, increase confidence, and generally improve regional curves representing the carbonate setting. Limitations associated with streamflow-gaging station selection and development of the curves result in some constraints for the application of regional curves presented in this report. These curves apply only to streams within the study area in watersheds having land use, streamflow regulation, and drainage areas that are consistent with the criteria used for station selection. Regardless of the setting, the regional curves presented here are not intended for use as the sole method for estimation of bankfull characteristics; however, th

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The hydrologic benefits of wetland and prairie restoration in western Minnesota—Lessons learned at the Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, 2002–15

Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands and native prairie is widely viewed as beneficial because it can restore natural ecological and hydrologic functions. Some of these functions, such as reduced peak flows and improved water quality, are often attributed to restoration; however, such benefits have not been quantified at a small scale. To inform future restoration efforts, especially in northern prairie settings, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Red Lake Watershed District, compared the hydrology of the Nation’s largest wetland and prairie restoration, Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, before and after restoration. Wetland and prairie restorations resulted in substantial changes in flows through the hydrologic cycle, in reduction of overland runoff and ditch flow during storms, and in improvements in water quality. Wetland and prairie restorations within the six basins characterized in this study resulted in a 14-percent decrease of cropland, a 6-percent increase of wetlands, and a 19-percent increase of native prairie between 2002 and 2015. During the same period, runoff rate decreased 33 percent (as a proportion of precipitation) and ditch flow rate decreased by 23 percent. Areal groundwater recharge rate increased from 30 to 35 percent (16 percent relative change in flow rate). Base flow as a proportion of total ditch flow increased from 25 to 35 percent (a 40-percent relative change). Peak ditch flow from storms decreased, ditch-flow recessions lengthened, and base flow from groundwater discharge increased, though only a small amount in some basins. These changes reduce the amount of ditch water leaving the study area, reducing flows that contribute to downstream flooding. Median surficial groundwater and ditch-water nitrate concentrations decreased by 79 and 53 percent, respectively. Median ditch-water suspended-sediment concentration decreased by 64 percent. Neither the density of restorations nor the beneficial changes in hydrology were evenly distributed in the study area. The amount of hydrologic benefits within an individual ditch basin did not relate directly with the amount of restoration in that basin; however, the landscape characteristics that related most closely with hydrologic benefits were the area of a basin underlain by a surficial aquifer and the area of drained wetlands (indicating the potential for wetland restoration). In western Minnesota, the basins underlain by surficial aquifers that contain large areas of drained wetlands are the uplands of the Alexandria Moraine Complex and the beaches of glacial Lake Agassiz on the eastern side of the western one-third of Minnesota, north of Wilmar, Minnesota. These findings provide resource managers with information that can help focus restoration resources in areas where the greatest hydrologic benefits can be realized.

Minnesota↗

Preparing for climate change: The potential consequences of climate variability and change

Over the past decades, scientific research has greatly advanced the knowledge and understanding of global environmental change. Research supported by the U. S. Global Change Research Programme (USGCRP) and research and assessment results by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) have demonstrated that human activities exert powerful environmental influences on global, regional, and local scales. Recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1997) indicate that human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (NO x ), methane (CH 4 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), partially halogenated fluorocarbons, and ozone (O 3 ), which alter radiative balances, and tend to warm the Earth’s surface. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols constitute key factors in global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables, resulting in local and regional changes in soil moisture, an increase in global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high temperature events, floods, and droughts in some places. In the United States and elsewhere in the industrialized world, energy use contributes to global warming more than any other human activity. This is because most of our energy comes from carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels provide energy for a variety of purposes, including transporting goods and people, manufacturing products, heating and cooling buildings, lighting spaces, and cooking foods. Each year U.S. energy use releases more than 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Present global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 130% of pre-industrial levels (Figure 1). The global surface temperature last century is warmer than any other century in the past millennium. The global average temperature has increased by about 1 o F over the last century and is projected to rise another 2-6.5 o F by year 2100 (Figure 2). The last two decades have been the warmest last century. Average global sea level has risen about 4 to 10 inches in the last hundred years, and is projected to rise another 6-38 inches by year 2100. Mid- and low- latitude mountain glaciers have retreated world-wide last century. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, it is expected that an increase in rainfall amount and consequent increase in river flooding will occur. Recent floods in the Gulf Coast areas (1993, 1997) are examples of such events, and perhaps indicate the high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. Because of its unique location adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast region of the United States is particularly vulnerable to various environmental alterations resulting from climate change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Chapter B. Physical, Chemical, and Biological Responses of Streams to Increasing Watershed Urbanization in the Piedmont Ecoregion of Georgia and Alabama, 2003

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program?s effort to assess the physical, chemical, and biological responses of streams to urbanization, 30 wadable streams were sampled near Atlanta, Ga., during 2002?2003. Watersheds were selected to minimize natural factors such as geology, altitude, and climate while representing a range of urban development. A multimetric urban intensity index was calculated using watershed land use, land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic variables that are highly correlated with population density. The index was used to select sites along a gradient from low to high urban intensity. Response variables measured include stream hydrology and water temperature, instream habitat, field properties (pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity), nutrients, pesticides, suspended sediment, sulfate, chloride, Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations, and characterization of algal, invertebrate and fish communities. In addition, semipermeablemembrane devices (SPMDs)?passive samplers that concentrate hydrophobic organic contaminants such as polycyclicaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)?were used to evaluate water-quality conditions during the 4 weeks prior to biological sampling. Changes in physical, chemical, and biological conditions were evaluated using both nonparametric correlation analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS) ordinations and associated comparisons of dataset similarity matrices. Many of the commonly reported effects of watershed urbanization on streams were observed in this study, such as altered hydrology and increases in some chemical constituent levels. Analysis of water-chemistry data showed that specific conductance, chloride, sulfate, and pesticides increased as urbanization increased. Nutrient concentrations were not directly correlated to increases in development, but were inversely correlated to percent forest in the watershed. Analyses of SPMD-derived data showed that bioassays and certain chemical constituents such as pyrene and benzophenanthrene, both PAHs found in coal tar, were strongly correlated with measures of watershed urbanization. Hydrologic variability metrics indicated that as urban development increased, streams became flashier, with characteristic high flows having shorter duration. The hydrologic effects associated with urbanization were greatest during the fall and least apparent during the winter. No correlations were observed between increasing urbanization and stream temperature or changes in stream habitat. Algal, invertebrate, and fish communities exhibited statistically significant changes as watersheds became increasingly urban, with the strongest responses observed in the invertebrate community followed by fishes, then algal diatom communities. Invertebrate communities were the most responsive to increasing urbanization with Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Tricoptera taxa, especially Plecoptera (stoneflies) responding negatively and most strongly to increasing urbanization. Invertebrate communities were influenced more significantly by water quality, although significant responses to altered hydrology also were noted. In terms of the fish community, the percentage of cyprinids present in the stream was the only Index of Biotic Integrity metric that responded negatively to increases in watershed urbanization. Fish community response to urbanization was intermediate relative to algae and invertebrates with respect to significant metric responses as well as the overall community response to increasing urbanization. Measures of hydrologic variability were the most influential environmental variables affecting the algal community. Although sites were originally chosen to represent a gradient of increasing urbanization, a cluster analysis performed on the component metrics of the urban index categorized sites into four distinct groups. Multivariate analysis based on nonmetric MDS and related analyses of data ma

Alabama, Georgia↗

Survey of chemical contaminants in the Hanalei River, Kaua'i, Hawai'i, 2001

The Hanalei River on the island of Kaua'i in Hawai'i was designated an American Heritage River in 1998, providing special attention to natural resource protection, economic revitalization, and historic and cultural preservation. Agricultural, urban, and tourism-related activities are potential sources of contamination within the Hanalei River watershed. The objective of this study was to measure certain persistent organic chemicals and elements in the Hanalei River. During a relatively low-flow period in December of 2001, samples of native Akupa sleeper fish ( Eleotris sandwicensis ), freshwater Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ), giant mud crab ( Scylla serrata ), surface water, and stream bed sediment were collected from a lower estuarine reach of the river near its mouth at Hanalei Bay and from an upper reach at the Hanalei National Wildlife Refuge. Samples were analyzed for residues of urban and agricultural chemicals including organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and elements (including mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, and selenium). Organic contaminants were extracted from the samples with solvent, enriched, and then analyzed by gas chromatographic analysis with electron capture or mass spectrometric detection. Samples were acid-digested for semi-quantitative analysis for elements by inductively-coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and for quantitative analysis by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls in biota, surface water, and bed sediment sampled from the Hanalei River ranged from nondetectable to very low levels. Polychlorinated biphenyls were below detection in all samples. Dieldrin, the only compound detected in the water samples, was present at very low concentrations of 1-2 nanograms per liter. Akupa sleeper fish and giant mud crabs from the lower reach ranged from 1 to 5 nanograms per gram (wet weight) dieldrin and from less than 0.3 to 2.1 nanograms per gram total chlordane. Concentrations of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the lower reach bed sediments ranged from less than 1 to 190 nanograms per gram (dry weight). Relative concentrations (patterns) of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in one portion of a sediment sample indicated combustion sources. Concentrations of elements in the surface water, biota, and sediment samples were below toxicity thresholds of ecological concern. In summary, concentrations of the organic contaminants and elements targeted by this study of the Hanalei River in 2001 were below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency probable adverse effects levels for aquatic organisms.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Incorporating climate data into emergency planning and exercises: A primer for emergency management practioners and data developers

Climate change has and will continue to sharpen climate-related risks to communities and natural resources in California and elsewhere, as the probabilities of more extreme weather, floods, and fires continue to increase. This poses a problem of novel situations for emergency management. Progress has been made in terms of formally incorporating climate projections, data, and research on expected changes in climate-driven hazards into long-term hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies at both state and national levels. However, there are fewer examples of how climate change considerations have, or could be, incorporated into shorter-term emergency preparedness and response strategies. This is an important gap to fill, as climate resilience depends not only on mitigation and prevention measures, but also on the ability of agencies to coordinate and effectively minimize impacts when prevention measures fall short. The goal of this primer is to provide guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning, with a focus on the development and use of extreme weather event scenarios for use in exercises. The first section is aimed toward a broad audience, including emergency management practitioners who use extreme weather event scenarios. It provides an overview of available data and tools that can inform scenario design as well as techniques for scenario design based on the hazard of interest, the audience and application, and the technical skills and resources required to develop, summarize, and/or visualize the data. This section concludes with an overview of approaches and lessons learned related to extreme event response planning and exercise design. Overall, this section highlights the advantages of developing quantitative scenarios based on spatial data, which allows visualizations and interactive data explorations that can provide greater specificity in discussions related to preparedness and response strategies. It further highlights the advantages of developing a core expert working group to guide planning, holding pre-exercise workshops to engage diverse communities outside of the emergency management sector, and engaging decisionmakers post-exercise to communicate key issues and outcomes as well as potential approaches for mitigating consequences that were identified by participants. The second section is aimed toward the scientific community and data developers involved in the creation of extreme weather event scenarios. This section provides technical guidance and detailed descriptions of four types of data resources and five analytical approaches that can be used to create extreme weather event scenarios based on the design considerations highlighted in section one. The computational resources and expertise required varies substantially across the options presented and is a primary consideration. These requirements, in addition to considerations related to audience and application, may determine the novelty and detail of the event, the detail of weather forecast information that can be provided, and the spatial extent across which the event can reasonably be modeled. The importance of, and approaches for, delivering information in a form that is accessible to emergency management practitioners is also discussed.

Report↗

Specific Conductance and Dissolved-Solids Characteristics for the Green River and Muddy Creek, Wyoming, Water Years 1999-2008

Southwestern Wyoming is an area of diverse scenery, wildlife, and natural resources that is actively undergoing energy development. The U.S. Department of the Interior's Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a long-term science-based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale, while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. Water-quality monitoring has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Green River near Green River, Wyoming, and Muddy Creek near Baggs, Wyoming. This monitoring, which is being conducted in cooperation with State and other Federal agencies and as part of the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative, is in response to concerns about potentially increased dissolved solids in the Colorado River Basin as a result of energy development. Because of the need to provide real-time dissolved-solids concentrations for the Green River and Muddy Creek on the World Wide Web, the U.S. Geological Survey developed regression equations to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations on the basis of continuous specific conductance using relations between measured specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations. Specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were less varied and generally lower for the Green River than for Muddy Creek. The median dissolved-solids concentration for the site on the Green River was 318 milligrams per liter, and the median concentration for the site on Muddy Creek was 943 milligrams per liter. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 187 to 594 milligrams per liter in samples collected from the Green River during water years 1999-2008. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 293 to 2,485 milligrams per liter in samples collected from Muddy Creek during water years 2006-08. The differences in dissolved-solids concentrations in samples collected from the Green River compared to samples collected from Muddy Creek reflect the different basin characteristics. Relations between specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were statistically significant for the Green River (p-value less than 0.001) and Muddy Creek (p-value less than 0.001); therefore, specific conductance can be used to estimate dissolved-solids concentrations. Using continuous specific conductance values to estimate dissolved solids in real-time on the World Wide Web increases the amount and improves the timeliness of data available to water managers for assessing dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Relation of hydrologic processes to groundwater and surface-water levels and flow directions in a dune-beach complex at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore and Beverly Shores, Indiana

The potential for high groundwater levels to cause wet basements (groundwater flooding) is of concern to residents of communities in northwestern Indiana. Changes in recharge from precipitation increases during 2006-9, water-level changes from restoration of nearby wetlands in the Great Marsh in 1998-2002, and changes in recharge due to the end of groundwater withdrawals for water supply since 2005 in a community at Beverly Shores, Ind., were suspected as factors in increased groundwater levels in an unconfined surficial aquifer beneath nearby parts of a dune-beach complex. Results of this study indicate that increased recharge from precipitation and snowmelt was the principal cause of raised water levels in the dune-beach complex from 2006 to 2009. Annual precipitation totals in 2006-9 ranged from 43.88 to 55.75 inches per year (in/yr) and were substantially greater than the median 1952-2009 precipitation of 36.35 in/yr. Recharge to groundwater from precipitation in 2006-9 ranged from 13.5 to 22 in/yr; it was higher than the typical 11 in/yr because of large precipitation events and precipitation amounts received during non-growing-season months. An estimated increase in net recharge from reduced groundwater use in Beverly Shores since 2005 ranged from 1.6 in/yr in 2006 to 1.9 in/yr in 2009. Surface-water levels in the wetland were as much as about 1.1 feet higher in 2007-9 (after the 1998-2002 wetland restoration) than during seasonally wet periods in 1979-89. Similar surface-water levels and ponded water were likely during winter and spring wet periods before and after wetland restoration. High water levels similar to those in 2009 were measured elsewhere in the dune-beach complex near a natural wetland during the spring months in 1991 and 1993 after receipt of near record precipitation. Recharge from similarly high precipitation amounts in 2008-9 was also a likely cause of high groundwater levels in other parts of the dune-beach complex, such as at Beverly Shores. Perennial mounding of the water table in the surficial aquifer indicates that the recharge that created the water-table mound originates within the dune-beach complex and not through flow from the adjacent hydrologic boundaries: the restored wetland, Lake Michigan, and Derby Ditch. Infiltrating precipitation causes most seasonal and episodic rises in groundwater levels beneath the dune-beach complex. Groundwater-level fluctuations lasting days to weeks in the dune-beach complex in 2008-9 were superimposed on a seasonal high water-table altitude that began with the recharge from snowmelt and rain in February 2009 and maintained through July 2009. Increases in water-table-mound altitude under the dune-beach complex recurred in 2008-9 in response to the largest rain events of 1 inch or more and to snowmelt. Smaller, shorter-term rises in water level after individual rain events persisted over hours to less than 1 week. Groundwater-level fluctuations varied over a relatively narrow range of about 2 to 3 feet, with no net fluctuations greater than 4 feet. Groundwater levels in or near low parts of the dune-beach complex were frequently within 0 to 6 feet of the land surface and indicate the potential for groundwater flooding. Groundwater-level gradients from the water-table mound to wells next to surface-water discharges increase after rainfall and snowmelt events and recede slowly as groundwater discharges from the aquifer. Evapotranspiration is responsible for part of the general pattern of decreasing water-table altitudes observed from May to August 2009. Rapid water-level rises in the restored wetland after precipitation do not likely have an effect on groundwater flooding elsewhere in the dune-beach complex. Surface-water-level fluctuations during this study generally varied over a narrower range, approximately from 1 to 1.5 feet, as compared with groundwater fluctuations, except after a very large, 10.77-inch rainfall. Time-delayed and smaller groundwater-level

Indiana↗

Discharge, suspended sediment, and salinity in the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and adjacent surface waters in South-Central Louisiana, 1997–2008

Discharge, suspended sediment, and salinity data collected between 1997 and 2008 indicate that the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) is an important distributary of river water and suspended sediments to coastal wetlands in south-central coastal Louisiana. Following natural hydraulic gradients, the GIWW passively distributes freshwater and suspended sediments from the Atchafalaya River to areas at least 30 to 50 miles west and east, respectively, of Morgan City. The magnitude and reach of the discharge in the GIWW increase as stage of the Wax Lake Outlet at Calumet and Lower Atchafalaya River (LAR) at Morgan City increase. The magnitude and duration of discharge vary from year to year depending on the flow regime of the Atchafalaya River. Annual discharge of water in the GIWW was greater during years when stage of the LAR remained anomalously high throughout the year, compared with average and peak flood years. During years when Atchafalaya River flow is low, Bayou Boeuf, a waterway draining the Verret subbasin, becomes a major source of water maintaining the eastward flow in the GIWW. The GIWW is the only means of getting river water to some parts of coastal Louisiana. The length of time stage of the LAR at Morgan City exceeds a given height has increased from the 1940s to 2008. This shift has increased the length of time the GIWW functions as a predictable distributary of river water each year. Similar shifts in the future could be expected to increase the duration and amounts of river water reaching coastal Louisiana wetlands through the GIWW. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in the GIWW to the west of Morgan City were around 160 milligrams per liter (mg/L). In the GIWW east of Morgan City, median concentrations were 120–160 mg/L, except in Bayou Boeuf at Railroad Bridge in Amelia and the parts of the GIWW between Bayou Boeuf and the Houma Navigation Canal; median concentrations here were around 100 mg/L. River water penetrates much of the Louisiana coast, as demonstrated by the large year-to-year fluctuations in salinity regimes of intradistributary basins in response to differences in flow regimes of the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya Rivers. This occurs directly through inflow along the GIWW and through controlled diversions and indirectly by transport into basin interiors after mixing with the Gulf of Mexico. The GIWW plays an important role in moderating salinity in intradistributary basins; for example, salinity in surface waters just south of the GIWW between Bayou Boeuf and the Houma Navigation Canal remained low even during a year with prolonged low water (2000).

Louisiana↗

Assessment of hydrology, water quality, and trace elements in selected placer-mined creeks in the birch creek watershed near central, Alaska, 2001-05

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, completed an assessment of hydrology, water quality, and trace-element concentrations in streambed sediment of the upper Birch Creek watershed near Central, Alaska. The assessment covered one site on upper Birch Creek and paired sites, upstream and downstream from mined areas, on Frying Pan Creek and Harrison Creek. Stream-discharge and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at other selected mined and unmined sites helped characterize conditions in the upper Birch Creek watershed. The purpose of the project was to provide the Bureau of Land Management with baseline information to evaluate watershed water quality and plan reclamation efforts. Data collection began in September 2001 and ended in September 2005. There were substantial geomorphic disturbances in the stream channel and flood plain along several miles of Harrison Creek. Placer mining has physically altered the natural stream channel morphology and removed streamside vegetation. There has been little or no effort to re-contour waste rock piles. During high-flow events, the abandoned placer-mine areas on Harrison Creek will likely contribute large quantities of sediment downstream unless the mined areas are reclaimed. During 2004 and 2005, no substantial changes in nutrient or major-ion concentrations were detected in water samples collected upstream from mined areas compared with water samples collected downstream from mined areas on Frying Pan Creek and Harrison Creek that could not be attributed to natural variation. This also was true for dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance-a measure of total dissolved solids. Sample sites downstream from mined areas on Harrison Creek and Frying Pan Creek had higher median suspended-sediment concentrations, by a few milligrams per liter, than respective upstream sites. However, it is difficult to attach much importance to the small downstream increase, less than 10 milligrams per liter, in median suspended-sediment concentration for either basin. During low-flow conditions in 2004 and 2005, previously mined areas investigated on Harrison Creek and on Frying Pan Creek did not contribute substantial suspended sediments to sample sites downstream from the mined areas. No substantial mining-related water- or sediment-quality problems were detected at any of the sites investigated in the upper Birch Creek watershed during low-flow conditions. Average annual streamflow and precipitation were near normal in 2002 and 2003. Drought conditions, extreme forest fire impact, and low annual streamflow set apart the 2004 and 2005 summer seasons. Daily mean streamflow for upper Birch Creek varied throughout the period of record-from maximums of about 1,000 cubic feet per second to minimums of about 20 cubic feet per second. Streamflow increased and decreased rapidly in response to rainfall and rapid snowmelt events because the steep slopes, thin soil cover, and permafrost areas in the watershed have little capacity to retain runoff. Median suspended-sediment concentrations for the 115 paired samples from Frying Pan Creek and 101 paired samples from Harrison Creek were less than the 20 milligrams per liter total maximum daily load. The total maximum daily load was set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the upper Birch Creek basin in 1996. Suspended-sediment paired-sample data were collected using automated samplers in 2004 and 2005, primarily during low-flow conditions. Suspended-sediment concentrations in grab samples from miscellaneous sites ranged from less than 1 milligram per liter during low-flow conditions to 1,386 milligrams per liter during a high-flow event on upper Birch Creek. Streambed-sediment samples were collected at six sites on Harrison Creek, two sites on Frying Pan Creek, and one site on upper Birch Creek. Trace-element concentrations of mercury, lead, and zinc in streambed sedimen

Scientific Investigations Report↗

History of the Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Fort Collins Science Center ("the Center") has been a nucleus of research, technology development, and associated scientific activities within the Department of the Interior for more than 30 years. The Center’s historical activities are deeply rooted in federal biological resources research and its supporting disciplines, particularly as they relate to the needs of the U.S. Department of the Interior and its resource management agencies. The organizational framework and activities of the Center have changed and adapted over the years in response to shifts in the scientific issues and challenges facing the U.S. Department of the Interior and with the development of new strategies to meet these challenges. Thus, the history of the Center has been dynamic. The Center has been nested within the U.S. Geological Survey since 1996. From 1993 to 1996 the Center was a major unit of the National Biological Service (named the National Biological Survey at its inception). This was a period of great organizational flux. During that time the Center comprised multiple field stations and science functions that prior to 1993 had been scattered among the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In 1993, certain biological research components of these agencies were assigned to join with the National Ecology Research Center, formerly one of the major research and development hubs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This was the year when biological resources research in the U.S. Department of the Interior was consolidated by the Secretary of the Interior, who in an April 1993 memo explaining his intentions wrote, "Our Department has, without doubt, the best biologists in the world." Soon after formation of the new agency, the Center was re-named the Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, reflecting its geographic location within the new Midcontinent administrative region of the National Biological Service (the other three original administrative regions were the eastern, western, and southern). The change in name to the Fort Collins Science Center took place in 2002, soon after the center moved to new facilities on the Colorado State University Natural Resources Research Campus. At various times during the period when it was part of the National Biological Service (1993–96), the Center served as the administrative and programmatic home base for a wide number of science activities in numerous Western states (table 1). This reflected the previous fragmentation of biological and related science efforts across resource management agencies in the U.S. Department of the Interior. The organization of the 2 Center within the National Biological Service was a manifestation of the desire of the Secretary of the Interior to consolidate its biological science activities in administratively independent entities that would ensure that the science retained its objectivity. Congress later recognized the need to maintain a hierarchical independence between biological science and resource management in the Department. However, Congress also saw that the U.S. Geological Survey, with its long history of objective science support to the nation in geology, water resources, geography, and remote sensing, was a suitable alternative home for these biological science functions. Thus, in 1996 Congress transferred the biological resources functions of the National Biological Service to the U.S. Geological Survey. Detailed overviews and opinions about the history and policy issues surrounding the formation and subsequent fate of the National Biological Service can be found elsewhere (for example Cohn, 1993, 2005; Kaufman, 1993; Kreeger, 1994; Pulliam, 1995, 1998a,b; Reichhardt, 1994; Wagner, 1999)

Open-File Report↗

Environmental chemical data for perishable sediments and soils collected in New Orleans, Louisiana, and along the Louisiana Delta following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005

In October 2005, nearly one month after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, a team of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Missouri University of Science and Technology deployed to southern Louisiana to collect perishable environmental data resulting from the impacts of these storms. Perishable samples collected for this investigation are subject to destruction or ruin by removal, mixing, or natural decay; therefore, collection is time-critical following the depositional event. A total of 238 samples of sediment, soil, and vegetation were collected to characterize chemical quality. For this analysis, 157 of the 238 samples were used to characterize trace element, iron, total organic carbon, pesticide, and polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations of deposited sediment and associated shallow soils. In decreasing order, the largest variability in trace element concentration was detected for lead, vanadium, chromium, copper, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury. Lead was determined to be the trace element of most concern because of the large concentrations present in the samples ranging from 4.50 to 551 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg). Sequential extraction analysis of lead indicate that 39.1 percent of the total lead concentration in post-hurricane sediment is associated with the iron-manganese oxide fraction. This fraction is considered extremely mobile under reducing environmental conditions, thereby making lead a potential health hazard. The presence of lead in post-hurricane sediments likely is from redistribution of pre-hurricane contaminated soils and sediments from Lake Pontchartrain and the flood control canals of New Orleans. Arsenic concentrations ranged from 0.84 to 49.1 mg/kg. Although Arsenic concentrations generally were small and consistent with other research results, all samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Human Health Medium-Specific Screening Level of 0.39 mg/kg. Mercury concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 1.30 mg/kg. Comparing the mean mercury concentration present in post-hurricane samples with regional background data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Geochemical Dataset, indicates that mercury concentrations in post-hurricane sediment generally are larger. Sequential extraction analysis of 51 samples for arsenic indicate that 54.5 percent of the total arsenic concentration is contained in the extremely mobile iron-manganese oxide fraction. Pesticide and polychlorinated biphenyl Arochlor concentrations in post-hurricane samples were small. Prometon was the most frequently detected pesticide with concentrations ranging from 2.4 to 193 micrograms per kilogram (µg/kg). Methoxychlor was present in 22 samples with a concentration ranging from 3.5 to 3,510 µg/kg. Although methoxychlor had the largest detected pesticide concentration, it was well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s High-Priority Screening Level for residential soils. Arochlor congeners were not detected for any sample above the minimum detection level of 7.9 µg/kg.

Louisiana↗

Metallogenesis and Tectonics of Northeast Asia

The major purposes of this chapter are to provide (1) an overview of the regional geology, tectonics, and metallogenesis of Northeast Asia for readers who are unfamiliar with the region, (2) a general scientific introduction to the succeeding chapters of this volume, and (3) an overview of the methodology of metallogenic and tectonic analysis used in this study. We also describe how a high-quality metallogenic and tectonic analysis, including construction of an associated metallogenic-tectonic model will greatly benefit other mineral resource studies, including synthesis of mineral-deposit models; improve prediction of undiscovered mineral deposit as part of a quantitative mineral-resource-assessment studies; assist land-use and mineral-exploration planning; improve interpretations of the origins of host rocks, mineral deposits, and metallogenic belts, and suggest new research. Research on the metallogenesis and tectonics of such major regions as Northeast Asia (eastern Russia, Mongolia, northern China, South Korea, and Japan) and the Circum-North Pacific (the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera) requires a complex methodology including (1) definitions of key terms, (2) compilation of a regional geologic base map that can be interpreted according to modern tectonic concepts and definitions, (3) compilation of a mineral-deposit database that enables a determination of mineral-deposit models and clarification of the relations of deposits to host rocks and tectonic origins, (4) synthesis of a series of mineral-deposit models that characterize the known mineral deposits and inferred undiscovered deposits in the region, (5) compilation of a series of metallogenic-belt belts constructed on the regional geologic base map, and (6) construction of a unified metallogenic and tectonic model. The summary of regional geology and metallogenesis presented here is based on publications of the major international collaborative studies of the metallogenesis and tectonics of Northeast Asia that have been led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). These studies have produced two broad types of publications (1) a series of regional geologic, mineral-deposit, and metallogenic-belt maps, with companion descriptions of the region, and (2) a suite of metallogenic and tectonic analyses of the same region. The study area consists of eastern Russia (most of eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East), Mongolia, northern China, South Korea, Japan, and adjacent offshore areas. The major cooperative agencies are the Russian Academy of Sciences; the Academy of Sciences of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia); VNIIOkeangeologia and Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation; the Mongolian Academy of Sciences; the Mongolian University of Science and Technology; the Mongolian National University; Jilin University, Changchun, People's Republic of China, the China Geological Survey; the Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources; the Geological Survey of Japan/AIST; the University of Texas, Arlington, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This study builds on and extends the data and interpretations from a previous project on the Major Mineral Deposits, Metallogenesis, and Tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera conducted by the USGS, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, and the Geological Survey of Canada. The major products of this project were summarized by Naumova and others (2006) and are described in appendix A.

Professional Paper↗

Towards automating measurements and predictions of Escherichia coli concentrations in the Cuyahoga River, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, 2012–14

Nowcasts are systems that can provide estimates of the current bacterial water-quality conditions based on predictive models using easily-measured, explanatory variables; nowcasts can provide the public with the information to make informed decisions on the risk associated with recreational activities in natural water bodies. Previous studies on the Cuyahoga River within Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP) have found that predictive models can be used to provide accurate assessments of the recreational water quality. However, in order to run the previously developed nowcasts for CVNP, manual collection and processing of samples is required on a daily basis to acquire the required explanatory variable data (laboratory-measured turbidity). The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service collaborated to develop a more automated approach to provide more timely results to park visitors regarding the recreational water quality of the river. In May 2012, an in-stream water-quality sensor was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey at Jaite, Ohio (a site centrally located in CVNP on the Cuyahoga River), to provide near-real-time measurements of turbidity and water temperature. To transition from methods used during previous studies at CVNP, a relation between laboratory- and in-stream measured turbidity was developed after the recreational season of 2012. During the recreational seasons of 2012 through 2014, discrete water samples were collected and processed to determine Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentrations at Jaite and one site upstream of Jaite (Lock 29) within CVNP. Predictive models, using in-stream turbidity measurements, were developed for the recreational seasons of 2013 and 2014 to estimate recreational water quality in regards to Ohio’s single-sample water-quality standard for primary-contact recreation. A computer program was developed to manage the nowcasts by running the predictive models and posting the results to a publicly accessible Web site daily by 9 a.m. The nowcasts were able to correctly predict E. coli concentrations above or below the water-quality standard at Jaite for 79 percent of the samples compared with the measured concentrations. In comparison, the persistence model (using the previous day’s sample concentration) correctly predicted concentrations above or below the water-quality standard in only 68 percent of the samples. To determine if the Jaite nowcast could be used for the stretch of the river between Lock 29 and Jaite, the model predictions for Jaite were compared with the measured concentrations at Lock 29. The Jaite nowcast provided correct responses for 77 percent of the Lock 29 samples, which was a greater percentage than the percentage of correct responses (58 percent) from the persistence model at Lock 29.

Ohio↗

Potentiometric Surfaces and Water-Level Trends in the Cockfield and Wilcox Aquifers of Southern and Northeastern Arkansas, 2006

The Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group and the Wilcox Group contain aquifers that provide sources of ground water in southern and northeastern Arkansas. In 2000, about 9.9 million gallons per day was withdrawn from the Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group and about 22.2 million gallons per day was withdrawn from the Wilcox Group. Major withdrawals from the aquifers were for industrial and public water supplies. A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey to determine the water level associated with the aquifers in the Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group and the Wilcox Group in southern and northeastern Arkansas. During February and March 2006, 56 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer and 59 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Wilcox aquifer, 16 in southwestern and 43 in northeastern Arkansas. This report presents the results as potentiometric-surface maps and as long-term water-level hydrographs. The regional direction of ground-water flow in the Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group generally is towards the east and southeast, away from the outcrop, except in areas of intense ground-water withdrawals, such as western Drew County, southeastern Lincoln County, southwestern Calhoun County, and near Crossett in Ashley County. There are three cones of depression indicated by relatively low water-level altitudes in southeastern Lincoln County, southwestern Calhoun County, and near Crossett in Ashley County. The lowest water-level altitude measured was 44 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Lincoln County; the highest water-level altitude measured was 346 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Columbia County at the outcrop area. Hydrographs from 40 wells with historical water levels from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated using linear regression to calculate the annual rise or decline. Calhoun and Cleveland Counties have mean annual rises from 0.01 to 0.07 feet per year. Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Columbia, Drew, Lincoln, and Union Counties have mean annual declines from 0.4 to 0.55 feet per year. Desha County has a mean annual decline of about 1.35 feet per year. The direction of ground-water flow in the southwestern study area of the Wilcox Group generally is south and east. The lowest water-level altitude measured in southwestern Arkansas was 147 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 near the Ouachita River in Clark County; the highest water-level altitude measured was 397 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in the outcrop area of Hempstead County. The direction of ground-water flow in the northeastern study area of the Wilcox Group generally is south and east. The lowest water-level altitude measured in northeastern Arkansas was 120 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 near West Memphis in Crittenden County; the highest water-level altitude measured was 368 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 on Crowleys Ridge in Clay County. Hydrographs from 28 wells with historical water levels from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated using linear regression to calculate the annual rise or decline. All 28 wells showed an annual decline from 1986 to 2006. Craighead, Greene, Mississippi, and Poinsett Counties have mean annual declines from 0.27 to 1.00 feet per year. Crittenden, Lee, and St. Francis Counties have mean annual declines from 1.39 to 1.64 feet per year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Status Assessment of Laysan and Black-Footed Albatrosses, North Pacific Ocean, 1923-2005

Over the past century, Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (Phoebastria nigripes) albatrosses have been subjected to high rates of mortality and disturbance at the breeding colonies and at sea. Populations were greatly reduced and many colonies were extirpated around the turn of the 20th century as a result of feather hunting. Populations were recovering when military occupation of several breeding islands during World War II led to new population declines at these islands and additional colony extirpations. At sea, thousands of Laysan and black-footed albatrosses were killed each year in high-seas driftnet fisheries, especially from 1978 until the fisheries were banned in 1992. Through the 1990s, there was a growing awareness of the large numbers of albatrosses that were being killed in longline fisheries. During the 1990s, other anthropogenic factors, such as predation by non-native mammals and exposure to contaminants, also were documented to reduce productivity or increase mortality. In response to the growing concerns over the impacts of these threats on albatross populations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct an assessment of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations. This assessment includes a review of the taxonomy, legal status, geographic distribution, natural history, habitat requirements, threats, and monitoring and management activities for these two species. The second part of the assessment is an analysis of population status and trends from 1923 to 2005. Laysan and black-footed albatrosses forage throughout the North Pacific Ocean and nest on tropical and sub-tropical oceanic islands from Mexico to Japan. As of 2005, 21 islands support breeding colonies of one or both species. The core breeding range is the Hawaiian Islands, where greater than 99 percent of the World's Laysan albatrosses and greater than 95 percent of the black-footed albatrosses nest on the small islands and atolls of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. These islands are all protected as part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Albatrosses are long-lived seabirds with deferred maturity, low fecundity, and high rates of adult survival. Their life history characteristics make populations especially vulnerable, to small increases in adult mortality. The primary threats to Laysan and black-footed albatrosses include interactions with commercial fisheries, predation by introduced mammals, reduced reproductive output due to contaminants, nesting habitat loss and degradation due to human development and invasive plant species, and potential loss and degradation of habitat due to climate change and sea-level rise. Incidental mortality (bycatch) in commercial fisheries is the greatest anthropogenic source of mortality (post-fledging) for both species. We found that longline fishing effort prior to the 1980s was greater than previously estimated and a very significant source of mortality. Regulations to minimize and monitor albatross mortality have been enacted in most U.S. and Canadian longline fisheries, but monitoring of bycatch rates and regulations to minimize seabird mortality are extremely limited in the much larger multinational longline fleets. Management to address threats at the breeding colonies is ongoing and includes eradication or control of non-native species, habitat management, and abatement programs to reduce impacts of contaminants. Effective long-term conservation and management of the Laysan and black-footed albatrosses require management and monitoring at the breeding colonies and at sea and continued assessment of population status and trends. We evaluated the status and trends of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations using linear regression, population viability analysis (PVA), and age-structured matrix models. Analyses were predominantly based on nest-count data gathered at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midw

Scientific Investigations Report↗