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Implementation and modification of a three-dimensional radiation stress formulation for surf zone and rip-current applications

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v 3.0), a three-dimensional numerical ocean model, was previously enhanced for shallow water applications by including wave-induced radiation stress forcing provided through coupling to wave propagation models (SWAN, REF/DIF). This enhancement made it suitable for surf zone applications as demonstrated using examples of obliquely incident waves on a planar beach and rip current formation in longshore bar trough morphology (Haas and Warner, 2009). In this contribution, we present an update to the coupled model which implements a wave roller model and also a modified method of the radiation stress term based on Mellor (2008, 2011a,b,in press) that includes a vertical distribution which better simulates non-conservative (i.e., wave breaking) processes and appears to be more appropriate for sigma coordinates in very shallow waters where wave breaking conditions dominate. The improvements of the modified model are shown through simulations of several cases that include: (a) obliquely incident spectral waves on a planar beach; (b) obliquely incident spectral waves on a natural barred beach (DUCK'94 experiment); (c) alongshore variable offshore wave forcing on a planar beach; (d) alongshore varying bathymetry with constant offshore wave forcing; and (e) nearshore barred morphology with rip-channels. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons to previous analytical, numerical, laboratory studies and field measurements show that the modified model replicates surf zone recirculation patterns (onshore drift at the surface and undertow at the bottom) more accurately than previous formulations based on radiation stress (Haas and Warner, 2009). The results of the model and test cases are further explored for identifying the forces operating in rip current development and the potential implication for sediment transport and rip channel development. Also, model analysis showed that rip current strength is higher when waves approach at angles of 5° to 10° in comparison to normally incident waves.

Coastal Engineering↗

Satellite-based evidence of recent decline in global forest recovery rate from tree mortality events

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.

Nature Plants↗

Value of sample information in dynamic, structurally uncertain resource systems

Few if any natural resource systems are completely understood and fully observed. Instead, there almost always is uncertainty about the way a system works and its status at any given time, which can limit effective management. A natural approach to uncertainty is to allocate time and effort to the collection of additional data, on the reasonable assumption that more information will facilitate better understanding and lead to better management. But the collection of more data, either through observation or investigation, requires time and effort that often can be put to other conservation activities. An important question is whether the use of limited resources to improve understanding is justified by the resulting potential for improved management. In this paper we address directly a change in value from new information collected through investigation. We frame the value of information in terms of learning through the management process itself, as well as learning through investigations that are external to the management process but add to our base of understanding. We provide a conceptual framework and metrics for this issue, and illustrate them with examples involving Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens).

PLoS ONE↗

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Caribbean region

The Caribbean Region consists of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (8,990 km 2 (square kilometers)) and the U.S. Virgin Islands (350 km 2 ). The mean annual precipitation varies locally from a high of 5,000 mm (millimeters) to a low of 730 mm. Maximum precipitation occurs within the peaks of Sierra de Luquillo, and minimum precipitation occurs along the windward parts of the smaller islands and in southwestern Puerto Rico, which lies in a rain shadow. The annual average precipitation is 1,800 mm in Puerto Rico and 1,061 mm in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Of this amount 1,130 mm in Puerto Rico and 990 mm in the U.S. Virgin Islands are lost to evapotranspiration. Aquifers constitute a valuable resource in the Caribbean Region. In Puerto Rico, ground-water withdrawals supply about 38 percent of the total water requirements, whereas in the U.S. Virgin Islands they supply 10 percent. Of the ground-water withdrawal of 350 hm 3 /yr (cubic hectometers per year) in Puerto Rico, 54 percent is used for irrigation, 29 percent is used by industry, and 17 percent is used for public water supply. Ground-water withdrawal in the U.S. Virgin Islands is about 1.9 hm 3 /yr and is almost equally distributed between public supply and privately owned wells. Based on past trends and future economic expectations in the region, estimates are that by 1985 ground-water pumpage in Puerto Rico will be about 426 hm 3 /yr with additional future development potential; U.S. Virgin Islands pumpage may amount to 4.5 hm 3 /yr, which is the estimated maximum sustained yield of all aquifers under natural recharge conditions. Most large ground-water developments in Puerto Rico have been in the North Coast and South Coast ground-water provinces. The North Coast province contains the island's most productive aquifer, which was virtually undeveloped until 1968, when an artesian system having a 150-meter head was tapped. Since then, the artesian aquifer has undergone rapid development for industrial water supply. The extent of the artesian system is unknown, but it has been tapped within the Montebello Limestone Member of the Cibao Formation and in the upper part of the Lares Limestone. The south-coast aquifer consists of deep alluvial deposits. This aquifer has been extensively developed for irrigation and industrial water supply and can sustain only minor future development under present water-management conditions. In the U.S. Virgin Islands the most extensive aquifer is fragmented igneous rock, but the most productive aquifers are the marl and alluvial deposits of central St. Croix. Although yields from wells in central St. Croix are low (less than 6.3 liters per second), the aquifer provides about 0.86 hm 3 /yr to public water-supply wells and 0.54 hm 3 /yr to private wells. Future development within this aquifer could probably produce an additional 1.0 hm 3 /yr under natural infiltration conditions. Ground-water resources will continue to be important within the region. In order to meet future needs, it is necessary that hydrologic principles be applied in managing the total water resource. Optimal use of the water resources can be accomplished through conjunctive use of surface and ground waters and through conservation practices. Optimal use may involve artificial recharge, ground-water salvage, saline-ground-water mining, use of seawater, desalination of saline ground water, waste-water reuse, and use of underground space for temporary storage of wastes, which could otherwise contaminate valuable water supplies.

Professional Paper↗

Grizzly bear depredation on grazing allotments in the Yellowstone ecosystem

Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) conflicts with humans, including livestock depredation on public land grazing allotments, have increased during the last several decades within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in the western United States as the grizzly bear population has grown in number and occupied range. Minimizing conflicts and improving conservation efficacy requires information on the relationships between livestock depredations, allotment management, grizzly bear habitat conditions, and their interactions. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate spatio-temporal relationships between grizzly bear depredation of livestock and the characteristics of 316 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service and National Park Service grazing allotments in the GYE during 1992–2014. We evaluated relationships at 2 spatial extents, representing daily and annual grizzly bear activity areas. During the study period, more grazing allotments became occupied by grizzly bears and most livestock depredations were associated with these areas of population expansion. Number of livestock (beta = 1.15 +/- 0.19 [SE]) and grizzly bear density index (beta = 1.13 +/- 0.10) had the greatest effects on the number of livestock depredation events relative to other allotment attributes. Estimated number of depredation events increased by approximately 20% when cow-calf pairs increased by 100 pairs and grizzly bear density index increased by 1 bear/196 km2 (the average annual home-range size of a female grizzly bear in the GYE). Additionally, grazing allotment size was positively related to the number of depredation events (beta = 0.56 +/- 0.16), whereas the presence of bull cattle or horses was associated with an approximately 50% reduction in depredations (beta = -0.71 +/- 0.37). Livestock depredation events were greater for allotments with lower road density (beta = -0.89 +/- 0.28), less rugged terrain (beta = -0.57 +/- 0.25), higher vegetative primary productivity (beta = 0.33 +/- 0.16), and more whitebark pine coverage (beta = 0.30 +/- 0.15). Relationships between depredations and grizzly bear habitat conditions varied across spatial extents. As the grizzly bear population continues to expand, natural resource managers and livestock producers could focus efforts on allotments with a higher density of grizzly bears, fewer roads, and quality grizzly bear habitat, including higher vegetative productivity, when developing cooperative management plans and preventative measures to reduce the likelihood of depredation. The perspectives gained from our analysis provide context for long-term, landscape-level planning to accommodate livestock production on public lands while meeting conservation goals for grizzly bears.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Assessing the extent and diversity of riparian ecosystems in Sonora, Mexico

Conservation of forested riparian ecosystems is of international concern. Relatively little is known of the structure, composition, diversity, and extent of riparian ecosystems in Mexico. We used high- and low-resolution satellite imagery from 2000 to 2006, and ground-based sampling in 2006, to assess the spatial pattern, extent, and woody plant composition of riparian forests across a range of spatial scales for the state of Sonora, Mexico. For all 3rd and higher order streams, river bottomlands with riparian forests occupied a total area of 2,301 km2. Where forested bottomlands remained, on average, 34% of the area had been converted to agriculture while 39% remained forested. We estimated that the total area of riparian forest along the principal streams was 897 km2. Including fencerow trees, the total forested riparian area was 944 km2, or 0.5% of the total land area of Sonora. Ground-based sampling of woody riparian vegetation consisted of 92, 50 m radius circular plots. About 79 woody plant species were noted. The most important tree species, based on cover and frequency, were willow species Salix spp. (primarily S. goodingii and S. bonplandiana), mesquite species Prosopis spp. (primarily P. velutina), and Fremont cottonwood Populus fremontii. Woody riparian taxa at the reach scale showed a trend of increasing diversity from north to south within Sonora. Species richness was greatest in the willow-bald cypress Taxodium distichum var. mexicanum-Mexican cottonwood P. mexicana subsp. dimorphia ecosystem. The non-native tamarisk Tamarix spp. was rare, occurring at just three study reaches. Relatively natural stream flow patterns and fluvial disturbance regimes likely limit its establishment and spread. ?? 2008 Springer Science + Business Media BV.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

Limited hybridisation and introgression despite stocking among endemic Interior Highlands black basses (Centrarchidae: Micropterus)

Aim: Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ; SMB) are globally popular among anglers and have been widely introduced (i.e. stocked) for population management and sportfishing. Importantly, stocking was prevalent before cryptic diversity within the SMB complex was known, which now includes three newly elevated species: Neosho Bass ( M. velox ; NB), Little River Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Little River; LRB) and Ouachita Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Ouachita River; OB). We sought to quantify population structure and hybridisation and introgression in these three recently described species. Location: Species-level diversity, particularly in the basin-restricted LRB and OB in the Ouachita Mountains within the Central Interior Highlands (CIH), North America, suggests the presence of distinct genetic variation that could be eroded by introgression. Methods: We estimated interspecific introgression and intraspecific population differentiation in the Smallmouth Bass species complex (SMB-C) using 472 specimens comprising SMB, NB, LRB and OB, including the naturally sympatric Spotted Bass ( M. punctulatus ; SPB). Genomic samples were genotyped on a SNP panel of 192 loci designed to detect allele-sharing on multiple hierarchical levels. Results: We found low range-wide hybridisation between species in the SMB-C and SPB (mostly SMB-C backcrosses), and interspecific heterozygosity varied, indicating differential introgression. Range-wide hybridisation between species in the CIH and SMB was similar overall (but mostly F 2 and CIH backcrosses) and was observed in streams with known SMB stocking in connected reservoirs. Interspecific heterozygosity in SMB hybrids was also generally lower, indicating later-generation backcrosses. We found strong population structure in the Ouachita Mountains (LRB and OB). Main conclusions: Despite isolated incidences of natural (SPB) and human-mediated (SMB) introgression, genomic identity appears intact in endemic LRB and OB, suggesting potential ecological or behavioural isolating mechanisms preventing cross-species reproduction. Our findings reveal that genetic variation remains in cryptic, basin-restricted species in the Ouachita Mountains ecoregion that may be managed for long-term conservation.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

PLoS ONE↗

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2012

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) annual report. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $70 million in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289,established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). The mission of the NCCWSC is to provide natural resource managers with the tools and information they need to develop and execute management strategies that address the impacts of climate and other ongoing global changes on fish and wildlife and their habitats. The DOI CSCs are joint Federal-university partnerships that focus their scientific work on regional priorities identified by DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as well as Federal, State, Tribal, and other resource managers. The CSCs provide access to a wide range of scientific capabilities through their network of university partners along with the USGS and other Federal agency scientists. The focus of the NCCWSC on multiregion and national priorities complements the regionally focused agendas of the CSCs.

Circular↗

Surface-Water and Ground-Water Interactions in the Central Everglades, Florida

Recharge and discharge are hydrological processes that cause Everglades surface water to be exchanged for subsurface water in the peat soil and the underlying sand and limestone aquifer. These interactions are thought to be important to water budgets, water quality, and ecology in the Everglades. Nonetheless, relatively few studies of surface water and ground water interactions have been conducted in the Everglades, especially in its vast interior areas. This report is a product of a cooperative investigation conducted by the USGS and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) aimed at developing and testing techniques that would provide reliable estimates of recharge and discharge in interior areas of WCA-2A (Water Conservation Area 2A) and several other sites in the central Everglades. The new techniques quantified flow from surface water to the subsurface (recharge) and the opposite (discharge) using (1) Darcy-flux calculations based on measured vertical gradients in hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity of peat; (2) modeling transport through peat and decay of the naturally occurring isotopes 224 Ra and 223 Ra (with half-lives of 4 and 11 days, respectively); and (3) modeling transport and decay of naturally occurring and "bomb-pulse" tritium (half-life of 12.4 years) in ground water. Advantages and disadvantages of each method for quantifying recharge and discharge were compared. In addition, spatial and temporal variability of recharge and discharge were evaluated and controlling factors identified. A final goal was to develop appropriately simplified (that is, time averaged) expressions of the results that will be useful in addressing a broad range of hydrological and ecological problems in the Everglades. Results were compared with existing information about water budgets from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), a principal tool used by the South Florida Water Management District to plan many of the hydrological aspects of the Everglades restoration.

Florida↗

Agroenvironmental transformation in the Sahel: Another kind of "green revolution"

A farmer-managed, agroenvironmental transformation has occurred over the past three decades in the West African Sahel, enabling both land rehabilitation and agricultural intensification to support a dense and growing population. This paper traces the technical and institutional innovations, their impacts, and lessons learned from two successful examples. The first is the story of the improvement and replication of indigenous soil and water conservation practices across the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso. Rehabilitation of at least 200,000 hectares of degraded land enabled farmers to grow cereals on land that had been barren and intensify production through developing agroforestry systems. Additionally, rehabilitation appears to have recharged local wells. The second example is a farmer-managed process of natural regeneration, using improved, local agroforestry practices over an estimated 5 million hectares in southern Niger. This large-scale effort reduced wind erosion and increased the production and marketing of crops, fodder, firewood, fruit, and other products. In both cases, income opportunities were created, reducing incentives for migration. Women benefited from the improved supply of water, fuelwood, and other tree products. Human, social, and political capital was strengthened in a process of farmer-driven change. Fluid coalitions of actors expanded the scale of the transformation. These stories have important lessons for those who seek to create effective agricultural development partnerships and meet the challenges of climate change and food security.

Central Plateau, West African Sahel↗

Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

The Wisconsin Academy’s initial Waters of Wisconsin project (WOW I) facilitated a statewide conversation between 2000 and 2003 around one main question: How can we ensure healthy aquatic ecosystems and clean, abundant water supplies for tomorrow’s Wisconsin? Robust participation in this conversation underscored the important role citizens have in the stewardship of our waters, and we found enthusiastic support for farsighted policies—based on sound science—to manage our water legacy. Overall, we found that Wisconsinites cherish water and see our waters as essential to our way of life in Wisconsin. Nationally, our state ranks 25th in land area but has the fourth-highest area covered by water. Wisconsin is 20th in population but is second only to Florida in the number of fishing licenses sold each year. Clean water supports billions of dollars’ worth of economic activity through tourism, agriculture, and industry. From the Northwoods cabin to the Port of Milwaukee to the Wisconsin Dells, water shapes our state’s identity. Our tradition of safeguarding Wisconsin’s waters is grounded in values such as responsibility to family and future generations, respect for land and wildlife, protecting public health and safety, and caring for water as a common good, as articulated in the state’s Public Trust Doctrine (see page 9). These deeply held values have also shaped a conservation ethic, and its legacy has served many generations who depend upon and enjoy the waters of the state. Through WOW I, we identified the need to overcome the institutional and disciplinary separation of science, policy, and management protocols through a more integrated approach to water management. WOW also affirmed that the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and other public agencies play a critical role in sound scientific application, citizen participation, and the practical implementation of policy while balancing public and private interests toward the goal of a clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin. In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the decades ahead. From its inception, the Wisconsin Academy’s Waters of Wisconsin Initiative has brought together a diverse community of experts from across the state and from varied fields and areas of interest, to address challenges and seize opportunities related to our precious waters. We have done so as a matter of both principle and practical reality: the state of our waters reflects the ways we interact not only with them, but also with one another and our institutions. The WOW Initiative has aimed to provide guidance for Wisconsin citizens in sustaining the health of our aquatic ecosystems and the resilience of our water supplies over the long term.

Report↗

Hematozoa of forest birds in American Samoa - Evidence for a diverse, indigenous parasite fauna from the South Pacific

Introduced avian diseases pose a significant threat to forest birds on isolated island archipelagos, especially where most passerines are endemic and many groups of blood-sucking arthropods are either absent or only recently introduced. We conducted a blood parasite survey of forest birds from the main islands of American Samoa to obtain baseline information about the identity, distribution and prevalence of hematozoan parasites in this island group. We examined Giemsa-stained blood smears from 857 individual birds representing 20 species on Tutuila, Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u islands. Four hematozoan parasites were identified - Plasmodium circumflexum (1%, 12/857), Trypanosoma avium (4%, 32/857), microfilaria (9%, 76/857), and an Atoxoplasma sp. (<1%, 2/857). Infections were found in seven indigenous bird species from the archipelago. Overall prevalence of infection varied significantly among bird species, individual islands, and between Tutuila and the more isolated Manu'a group of islands. Infections with Plasmodium, Trypanosoma, and filarial worms occurred throughout the archipelago, including islands without introduced birds. There was a statistically significant difference in the overall prevalence of infection before and after Hurricane Olaf in February 2005, suggesting that catastrophic hurricanes may influence the dynamics of parasite infections. Given the central location of American Samoa in the South Pacific, it is likely that avian malaria and other hematozoan parasites are indigenous and widespread at least as far as the central South Pacific. Their natural occurrence may provide some immunological protection to indigenous birds in the event that other closely related parasites are accidentally introduced to the region.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗

Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999-2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991-1993 and again during 1999-2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota's limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota's rare and endangered species. ?? BirdLife International 2005.

Bird Conservation International↗

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗

Landscape-scale evaluation of asymmetric interactions between Brown Trout and Brook Trout using two-species occupancy models

Predicting the distribution of native stream fishes is fundamental to the management and conservation of many species. Modeling species distributions often consists of quantifying relationships between species occurrence and abundance data at known locations with environmental data at those locations. However, it is well documented that native stream fish distributions can be altered as a result of asymmetric interactions between dominant exotic and subordinate native species. For example, the naturalized exotic Brown Trout Salmo trutta has been identified as a threat to native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern United States. To evaluate large-scale patterns of co-occurrence and to quantify the potential effects of Brown Trout presence on Brook Trout occupancy, we used data from 624 stream sites to fit two-species occupancy models. These models assumed that asymmetric interactions occurred between the two species. In addition, we examined natural and anthropogenic landscape characteristics we hypothesized would be important predictors of occurrence of both species. Estimated occupancy for Brook Trout, from a co-occurrence model with no landscape covariates, at sites with Brown Trout present was substantially lower than sites where Brown Trout were absent. We also observed opposing patterns for Brook and Brown Trout occurrence in relation to percentage forest, impervious surface, and agriculture within the network catchment. Our results are consistent with other studies and suggest that alterations to the landscape, and specifically the transition from a forested catchment to one that contains impervious surface or agriculture, reduces the occurrence probability of wild Brook Trout. Our results, however, also suggest that the presence of Brown Trout results in lower occurrence probability of Brook Trout over a range of anthropogenic landscape characteristics, compared with streams where Brown Trout were absent.

Pennsylvania↗

A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics, and progression of invasive species. Routine monitoring of changes in centroid will provide useful insights into long-term avian responses to environmental changes.

Ecography↗

Effects of invasive plant species on pollinator service and reproduction in native plants at Acadia National Park

Invasive plant species can have profound negative effects on natural communities by competively excluding native species. Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), Frangula alnus (glossy or alder buckthorn) and Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) are invasive species known to reduce native plant diversity and are thus of great concern to Acadia National Park. Pollinators visit them for nectar and pollen. The effects of invasive plant species on pollinator behavior were investigated by comparing pollinator visitation to co-flowering native and invasive species with visitation to native species growing alone. The effect of invasives on pollination of native plants was studied by comparing fruit set in patches of the native species growing near invasives with patches far from invasive species in Acadia National Park. The coflowering pairs were as follows: in the spring native Vaccinium angustifolium (lowbush blueberry) was paired with B. thunbergii; in early summer native Viburnum nudum (wild raisin) was paired with F. alnus ; in late summer native Spiraea alba (meadowsweet) was paired with L. salicaria. We investigated whether these invasives competed with native plants for pollinators in Acadia and thus negatively affected native plant reproduction. Our objectives were to determine: 1) the influence, if any, of each invasive on pollinator visitation to a co-flowering native species, 2) factors that might affect visitation, 3) invasive pollen transfer to native plants, and 4) whether invasives influence native plant reproduction (fruit set). Our findings indicate that at times the number of flower visitors to natives was lower or the species composition of visitors different when invasives were present, that invasives sometimes attracted more pollinators, that generally the invasives were more rewarding as far as nectar and pollen availability for pollinators, and that generally native plant fruit set and seed set was not significantly lowered in the presence of the invasive. In fact, in one year fruit set of S. alba was significantly greater in the presence of L. salicaria. The number of invasive pollen grains on native stigmas was extremely low; on average less than one grain per stigma. These fruit set and pollen deposition findings indicate that native plant reproduction was not adversely affected in the short term by these invasive species and that therefore competition between the native and invasive species for pollinators did not occur. Native bee populations monitored in 2004-2005 at sites with and without B. thunbergii and/or F. alnus indicated a greater abundance of native bees at sites with these invasives present. Native bees collected from the native and invasive plants were compared with historical records to assess whether invasive plants favor different bee species than those that formerly predominated on Mount Desert Island. This does not appear to be the case. Several species of bumble bees (Bombus spp.) as well as nine solitary bee species were found that were not documented by the Procter surveys of 1917-1940. Collecting of native bees was limited to the study plants, which may, in part, explain why some bee species documented in the Procter Surveys were not found in the present research. A field guide for identification of native bumble bees has been produced to help Park Natural Resource personnel monitor the status of native bee populations in Acadia. Other educational materials were also developed, aimed at educating Park visitors by exposing them to: 1) the role of native plants and their bee pollinators in terrestrial ecosystems; 2) the effects of invasive plants on native plant-pollinator mutualisms; 3) the need for conserving native bees and other pollinators; and 4) conservation strategies for protecting and enhancing native plant-pollinator mutualisms in the Park. Based on the present findings, Acadia Park Resource Management personnel should continue to closely

Technical Report↗