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USGS2008

Importance of agricultural landscapes to nesting burrowing owls in the Northern Great Plains, USA

Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation are the principle factors causing declines of grassland birds. Declines in burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations have been extensive and have been linked to habitat loss, primarily the decline of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies. Development of habitat use models is a research priority and will aid conservation of owls inhabiting human-altered landscapes. From 2001 to 2004 we located 160 burrowing owl nests on prairie dog colonies on the Little Missouri National Grassland in North Dakota. We used multiple linear regression and Akaike's Information Criterion to estimate the relationship between cover type characteristics surrounding prairie dog colonies and (1) number of owl pairs per colony and (2) reproductive success. Models were developed for two spatial scales, within 600 m and 2,000 m radii of nests for cropland, crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum), grassland, and prairie dog colonies. We also included number of patches as a metric of landscape fragmentation. Annually, fewer than 30% of prairie dog colonies were occupied by owls. None of the models at the 600 m scale explained variation in number of owl pairs or reproductive success. However, models at the 2,000 m scale did explain number of owl pairs and reproductive success. Models included cropland, crested wheatgrass, and prairie dog colonies. Grasslands were not included in any of the models and had low importance values, although percentage grassland surrounding colonies was high. Management that protects prairie dog colonies bordering cropland and crested wheatgrass should be implemented to maintain nesting habitat of burrowing owls. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2004

The effects of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in large landscape bioassessments: An example from the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, U.S.A.

1. During late spring 1993-1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 490 wadeable streams in the mid-Atlantic Highlands (MAH) of the U.S. for a variety of physical, chemical and biological indicators of environmental condition. We used the resulting data set to evaluate the importance of differing levels of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in bioassessments by comparing the ability of family versus genus to detect differences among sites classified by type and magnitude of human impact and by stream size. We divided the MAH into two physiographic regions: the Appalachian Plateau where mine drainage (MD) and acidic deposition are major stressors, and the Ridge and Valley where nutrient enrichment is a major stressor. Stream sites were classified into three or four impact classes based on water chemistry and habitat. We used stream order (first to third Strahler order) in each region as a measure of stream size. Ordination, 2 x 2 chi-square and biotic metrics were used to compare the ability of family and genus to detect differences among both stressor and size classes. 2. With one notable exception, there were only a small number of different genera per family (interquartile range = 1-4). Family Chironomidae, however, contained 123 different genera. As a result, significant information loss occurred when this group was only classified to family. The family Chironomidae did not discriminate among the predefined classes but many chironomid genera did: by chi-square analysis, 10 and 28 chironomid genera were significant in discriminating MD and nutrient impacts, respectively. 3. Family and genus data were similar in their ability to distinguish among the coarse impacts (e.g. most severe versus least severe impact classes) for all cases. Though genus data in many cases distinguished the subtler differences (e.g. mixed/moderate impacts versus high or low impacts) better than family, differences in significance levels between family and genus analyses were relatively minor. However, genus data detected differences among stream orders in ordination analyses that were not revealed at the family level. In the ordinations, both family and genus levels of analysis responded to similar suites of environmental variables. 4. Our results suggest that identification to the family level is sufficient for many bioassessment purposes. However, identifications to genus do provide more information in genera-rich families like Chironomidae. Genus or finer levels of identification are important for investigating natural history, stream ecology, biodiversity and indicator species. Decisions about the taxonomic level of identification need to be study specific and depend on available resources (cost) and study objectives.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2007

Mangrove recruitment after forest disturbance is facilitated by herbaceous species in the Caribbean

Plant communities along tropical coastlines are often affected by natural and human disturbances, but little is known about factors influencing recovery. We focused on mangrove forests, which are among the most threatened ecosystems globally, to examine how facilitation by herbaceous vegetation might improve forest restoration after disturbance. We specifically investigated whether recovery of mangrove forests in harsh environments is accelerated by nurse plants and whether the beneficial effects are species-specific. Quantification of standardized effects allowed comparisons across performance parameters and over time for: (1) net effect of each herbaceous species on mangrove survival and growth, (2) effects of pre- and post-establishment factors associated with each herbaceous species, and (3) need for artificial planting to enhance growth or survival of mangrove seedlings. Mangrove recruitment in a clear-cut forest in Belize was accelerated by the presence of Sesuvium portulacastrum (succulent forb) and Distichlis spicata (grass), two coastal species common throughout the Caribbean region. The net effect of herbaceous vegetation was positive, but the magnitude of effects on mangrove survival and growth differed by species. Because of differences in their vegetative structure and other features, species effects on mangroves also varied by mechanism: (1) trapping of dispersing propagules (both species), (2) structural support of the seedling (Distichlis), and/or (3) promotion of survival (Sesuvium) or growth (Distichlis) through amelioration of soil conditions (temperature, aeration). Artificial planting had a stronger positive effect on mangrove survival than did edaphic conditions, but planting enhanced mangrove growth more in Sesuvium than in Distichlis patches. Our study indicates that beneficial species might be selected based on features that provide multiple positive effects and that species comparisons may be improved using standardized effects. Our findings are not only relevant to the coastal environments found in the Caribbean region, but our assessment methods may be useful for developing site-specific information to restore disturbed mangrove forests worldwide, especially given the large pool of mangrove associates (>45 genera) available for screening. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

A statistical framework for modelling migration corridors

1. Management of animal populations requires spatially explicit knowledge of movement corridors, such as those used during seasonal migrations. GPS tracking data allows for mapping of corridors from directly observed movements, providing important insights, but tracking data is absent for many populations. 2. We developed a novel statistical corridor modeling approach that predicts movement corridors from cost-distance movement models fit directly to migration tracking data. Unlike existing predictive approaches, this does not require the ad-hoc transformation of habitat suitability surfaces into resistance surfaces. We tested the ability of the approach to recover parameters used to generate simulated movements. We then used GPS data from three migrating mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) herds in Idaho and Wyoming to model corridors as a function of elevation, slope, aspect, percent shrub, date of peak green-up, snow-off date, and human footprint. We assessed the predictive ability of the fitted models using validation tracks from the same herd as well as from the other herds. 3. The approach reproduced parameters used to generate the simulated movements, predicted the corridors used by migratory populations, and described the direction, magnitude, and confidence levels of the effects of environmental variables on corridors. The effects environmental variables had on corridors differed depending on the herd. Within-herd validation indicated that fitted corridor models are more accurate at predicting migration corridors than null models, and cross-herd validation indicated that fitted models for some herds accurately predicted the observed migrations of other herds. 4. In addition to the practical benefit of mapping corridors for management, our statistical corridor modeling framework sets the stage for evaluating fundamental questions about the fitness tradeoffs, navigation, learning, fidelity, and movement constraints that influence migratory and other corridor-generating behavior. Models of predictive corridors can inform management and planning for the conservation of migrations across taxa, including the potential restoration of corridors. Our corridor modeling approach is also readily applied to non-migratory animal movements.

Idaho, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis , was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica , showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Environment and Ecology Research↗

USGS2009

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Ecological associations of non-native ungulates on the Hawaiian Island of Lāna‘i

Sustained-yield hunting of introduced ungulates in the Hawaiian Islands often conflicts with the conservation of native species, but there is little reliable data to guide effective management. European mouflon sheep ( Ovis musimon ; mouflon) and axis deer ( Axis axis ; deer) were introduced on the island of Lāna‘i to provide additional hunting opportunities. Managers will require better information regarding the ecological associations of introduced ungulate species, relative to the habitats occupied, to resolve longstanding conflicts between native species conservation and sustained-yield hunting on islands. To address this information need, we modeled sheep and deer ecological associations, habitat-use, and suitability using data obtained from an intensive aerial survey completed in 2013 and temporally matching environmental data. In habitat suitability models evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) metrics, predictor importance in a generalized linear model (GLM) of deer decreased in the following order: afternoon cloud cover, topographic slope, mean annual precipitation (MAP), elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and bare soil index. In a random GLM model of mouflon, predictor importance decreased in the following order: afternoon cloud cover, deer habitat suitability, NDVI, bare soil index, topographic slope, elevation, and MAP. Mouflon were restricted to lower elevation arid slopes, whereas deer were more broadly distributed throughout upland environments of the island. The presence of deer was also an important predictor for mouflon distribution, although mouflon was not an important predictor of deer, suggesting asymmetrical competition. Removal of the more abundant deer population may lead to an increase in abundance and distribution of mouflon without containment. This work represents the first habitat suitability analysis for all nonnative ungulates on any entire Hawaiian island. Our results are applicable to other islands where conflicts may arise with introduced ungulates, sustained-yield hunting, and native species conservation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Genetic structure among greater white-fronted goose populations of the Pacific Flyway

An understanding of the genetic structure of populations in the wild is essential for long-term conservation and stewardship in the face of environmental change. Knowledge of the present-day distribution of genetic lineages (phylogeography) of a species is especially important for organisms that are exploited or utilize habitats that may be jeopardized by human intervention, including climate change. Here, we describe mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear genetic (microsatellite) diversity among three populations of a migratory bird, the greater white-fronted goose ( Anser albifrons ), which breeds discontinuously in western and southwestern Alaska and winters in the Pacific Flyway of North America. Significant genetic structure was evident at both marker types. All three populations were differentiated for mtDNA, whereas microsatellite analysis only differentiated geese from the Cook Inlet Basin. In sexual reproducing species, nonrandom mate selection, when occurring in concert with fine-scale resource partitioning, can lead to phenotypic and genetic divergence as we observed in our study. If mate selection does not occur at the time of reproduction, which is not uncommon in long-lived organisms, then mechanisms influencing the true availability of potential mates may be obscured, and the degree of genetic and phenotypic diversity may appear incongruous with presumed patterns of gene flow. Previous investigations revealed population-specific behavioral, temporal, and spatial mechanisms that likely influence the amount of gene flow measured among greater white-fronted goose populations. The degree of observed genetic structuring aligns well with our current understanding of population differences pertaining to seasonal movements, social structure, pairing behavior, and resource partitioning.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Estimating the aboveground biomass and carbon stocks of tall shrubs in a prerestoration degraded salt marsh

Wetlands play a vital role in Earth's carbon cycle and provide important ecosystem services. Their ability to perform their roles can be compromised by human activities that destroy or impair their functioning. The restoration of degraded wetlands may allow carbon cycle functioning, as well as other services, to be recovered. Predicting the potential outcomes from any restoration project requires upfront consideration, including via modeling possible changes in carbon stocks. In this study, we quantified the carbon stocks in tall shrub vegetation proliferating in a degraded salt marsh that is currently the subject of an extensive restoration project. We produced allometric models to estimate biomass and carbon stocks for three tall shrub species, which, along with other freshwater and upland species in the area, will die with continued restoration. Therefore, estimating the potential for carbon losses in biomass is important. We also developed a means of estimating carbon stocks in other nontree plants in the estuary area. Useful equations for estimating the biomass of tall shrubs are limited in general and lacking for degraded systems. Our study adds to the literature on carbon stocks in shrub species and fills a data gap for degraded ecosystems. It also contributes to the broader carbon feasibility study of the aforementioned restoration project that was designed to predict the overall net impact of the project on greenhouse gas emissions in the ecosystem.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2018

Managing individual nests promotes population recovery of a top predator

Threatened species are managed using diverse conservation tactics implemented at multiple scales ranging from protecting individuals, to populations, to entire species. Individual protection strives to promote recovery at the population‐ or species‐level, although this is seldom evaluated. After decades of widespread declines, bald eagles, Haliaeetus leucocephalus , are recovering throughout their range due to legal protection and pesticide bans. However, like other raptors, their recovery remains threatened by human activities. Bald eagle nests are commonly managed using buffer zones to minimize human disturbance, but the benefits of this practice remain unquantified. Within Voyageurs National Park (VNP), Minnesota, USA, managers have monitored bald eagle populations for over 40 years, and since 1991, have protected at‐risk nests from human disturbance using buffer zones (200 and 400 m radius). We aimed to (1) quantify the recovery of bald eagles in VNP (1973–2016), and (2) provide a first‐ever evaluation of the individual‐ and population‐level effects of managing individual nests. To do so, we developed Bayesian Integrated Population Models combining observations of nest occupancy and reproductive output (metrics commonly collected for raptors) to estimate nest‐level probabilities of occupancy, nest success, and high productivity (producing ≥2 nestlings), as well as population‐level estimates of abundance and growth. The breeding population of bald eagles at VNP increased steadily from <10 pairs in the late 1970s to 48 pairs by 2016. At the nest‐level, management significantly improved occupancy and success. At the population‐level, management led to 8% and 13% increases in nest success and productivity rates, respectively, resulting in a 37% increase in breeding pair abundance. Synthesis and applications . There is a clear need to evaluate how management approaches at multiple scales assist in species recovery. Our study uses an Integrated Population Model to reveal the population‐level benefits of a widely used, individual‐based management action (protecting nests using buffer zones) on a recovering raptor.

Minnesota↗

USGS2020

Managing plague on prairie dog colonies: Insecticides as ectoparasiticides

Human health practitioners and wildlife biologists use insecticides to manage plague by suppressing fleas (Siphonaptera), but insecticides can also kill other ectoparasites. We investigated effects of deltamethrin and fipronil on ectoparasites from black-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus , BTPDs). In late July, 2018, we treated three sites with 0.05% deltamethrin dust and 5 sites with host-fed 0.005% fipronil grain. Three non-treated sites functioned as experimental baselines. We collected ectoparasites before treatments (June-July, 2018) and after treatments (August-October, 2018, June-July, 2019). Both deltamethrin and fipronil suppressed fleas for at least 12 months. Deltamethrin had no detectable effect on mites (Arachnida). Fipronil suppressed mites for at least 12 months. Lice (Phthiraptera) were scarce on non-treated sites throughout the study, complicating interpretation. Concentrating on eight sites where all three ectoparasites where found in June-July, 2018 (before treatments), flea intensity was greatest on BTPDs carrying many lice and mites. These three ectoparasites co-occurred at high numbers, which might facilitate plague transmission in some cases. Lethal effects of insecticides on ectoparasite communities are potentially advantageous in the context of plague management.

South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Visitor use and activities detected using trail cameras at forest restoration sites

We used trail cameras to monitor human visits and activities at two sites in northeast Indiana being restored to bottomland hardwood forests. These sites, managed as nature preserves, are close to cities, where trails and parking lots have been added for ease of access. In this study, trail cameras were successfully used to capture visitation rates and activity types. The two sites had median visitor use rates of 1 and 13 visitors per day. Across both sites, “parking lot use only” (62%), hikers (30.2%), and bicyclists (5%) accounted for more than 97% of site visits. Overall, most weekday visitor-time occurred during daylight hours, peaking at lunch and evening. Mean total number of daily visitors was higher during weekends; however, total daily visitor-time did not vary between days of the week. Michaelis-Menten rarefaction models of sampling efficiency across the study’s four camera stations suggest sampling duration of 27 to 55 days to accurately estimate mean daily visitor counts and 3 to 40 days to detect half the maximal numbers of observed activities. Study estimates of visitation provide land managers with information for accommodating visitor use activities on the restored sites and offer inputs for cultural ecosystem services assessments and associated economic analyses.

Ecological Restoration↗

USGS2020

Growth rates for immature Kemp’s ridley sea turtles from a foraging area in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Examining vital rates helps clarify how environmental characteristics, biological resources and human activities affect population growth. Carapace lengths were gathered for 241 Kemp’s ridley Lepidochelys kempii sea turtles that were marked and recaptured (n = 23) between 2011 and 2019 at a foraging location in northwest Florida, USA. There was a strong correlation between length, width and weight of captured turtles. Mean ± SD size of all captured turtles was 36.6 ± 7.6 cm. Mean recapture interval was 499 ± 475.4 d. Straight-line carapace lengths at initial capture ranged from 20.6 to 53.3 cm. Growth rates from 0.21 to 12.44 cm yr -1 (mean 3.15 ± 2.64 cm) were documented and were greatest for turtles in the 20.0-29.9 cm size class. Growth rates from northwest Florida were slower than those reported from other sites in the Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate that Kemp’s ridleys recruit from oceanic habitat into coastal bays in northwest Florida, where they remain until they reach adulthood. However, some adult-sized turtles may continue to use the nearshore habitat. A gradient in growth rates in the Gulf of Mexico may occur from faster growth in the south to slower growth in the north. Fine-scale variations in resources and environmental conditions may drive regional differences in growth rates, and research on what drives these differences is needed.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2021

Environmental factors predicting the orientation of sea turtle hatchlings on a naturally lighted beach: A baseline for light-management goals

On sea turtle nesting beaches, artificial lighting associated with human development interferes with hatchling orientation from nest to sea. Although hatchling disorientation has been documented for many beaches, data that managers can use in understanding, predicting, and managing the issue are of limited detail. The present study provides baseline hatchling orientation data that can be compared to those from beaches with artificial lighting to prioritize light-management efforts there. In 2014, the precision of hatchling orientation was quantified for 87 nests on a naturally lighted beach that had little to no artificial lighting. Precision of hatchling orientation was regressed against seven environmental variables: beach slope, distance from nest to dune, dune height, apparent dune silhouette height relative to nest site, moon illumination percentage, cloud cover percentage, and relative humidity. Results favored a regression model that included distance from nest to dune, with shorter distances from the dune predicting a narrower angular range (i.e., greater precision) of hatchling orientation. The study confirmed findings of an earlier laboratory experiment that highlighted the importance to accurate hatchling orientation of a dark silhouette (dune) on the side of the nest site opposite the ocean side. Reducing artificial light and promoting the planting of pioneer plants that assist dune formation can increase hatchling survival.

Florida↗

USGS2023

A minimally invasive, field-applicable CRISPR/Cas biosensor to aid in the detection of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the causative fungal agent of white-nose syndrome in bats

The accessibility to CRISPR/Cas (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats/CRISPR-associated protein) genetic tools has given rise to applications beyond site-directed genome editing for the detection of DNA and RNA. These tools include precise diagnostic detection of human disease pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus. Despite the technology being rapid and cost-effective, the use of CRISPR/Cas tools in the surveillance of the causative agents of wildlife diseases has not been prominent. This study presents the development of a minimally invasive, field-applicable and user-friendly CRISPR/Cas-based biosensor for the detection of Pseudogymnoascus destructans ( Pd ), the causative fungal agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), an infectious disease that has killed more than five million bats in North America since its discovery in 2006. The biosensor assay combines a recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) step followed by CRISPR/Cas12a nuclease cleavage to detect Pd DNA from bat dermal swab and guano samples. The biosensor had similar detection results when compared to quantitative PCR in distinguishing Pd- positive versus negative field samples. Although bat dermal swabs could be analysed with the biosensor without nucleic acid extraction, DNA extraction was needed when screening guano samples to overcome inhibitors. This assay can be applied to help with more rapid delineation of Pd- positive sites in the field to inform management decisions. With further optimization, this technology has broad translation potential to wildlife disease-associated pathogen detection and monitoring applications.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2019

Postfire population dynamics of a fire-dependent cypress

Tecate cypress ( Hesperocyparis forbesii ) is a rare species restricted to four metapopulations in southern California, USA and a few isolated stands in northern Baja California, Mexico. It is a closed-cone, fire-dependent tree of conservation concern due to an increase in human-caused wildfires that have shortened the interval between fires in many of their populations. In 2003 the Mine/Otay Fire burned 70% of the Tecate cypress on Otay Mountain in San Diego County, California providing an opportunity to evaluate the immaturity risk of this species and to examine its recruitment, survivorship, and reproductive maturity over a 14-year period from 2004 to 2017. Sixteen plots were established in burned stands of Tecate cypress with prefire ages that ranged from 7 to 53 years old. After 14 years the overall density of Tecate cypress was still higher than before the fire, however the areal extent of the species decreased due to the loss of locations where either there was low cone production or fire intensity was too high. The immaturity risk for this species, while a function of prefire stand age, is confounded by other factors including the reproductive capacities of trees based on their density and size and the climatic variables affecting their growth over time. The future management of Tecate cypress and other fire-dependent species requires a knowledge of all factors impacting their immaturity risk, as well as an understanding of the potential fire-climate interactions that may impact their persistence in a future of climate change and altered fire regimes.

California↗

USGS2015

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R 0 . However, understanding the mechanisms linking R 0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R 0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R 0 . Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R 0 . While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Congruence among multiple indices of habitat preference for species facing human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study using the Brewer's sparrow

Accurate evaluations of habitat preference are key to understanding optimal conditions for wildlife survival and reproduction. Habitat selection, however, usually is evaluated using a single index of preference, and congruence among multiple, relevant indices of preference is examined rarely. We assessed the concordance between patterns of habitat preference using three different indices of breeding site preference in a migratory songbird. Specifically, we compared the chronology of territorial establishment, pair formation and reproductive initiation of the Brewer's sparrow ( Spizella breweri ) along a gradient of surface disturbance associated with natural gas development in Wyoming, USA during 2019. We expected all three indices to demonstrate a preference for breeding sites with less surface disturbance, where reproductive success typically is higher. By contrast, all indices suggested suboptimal preference with respect to surface disturbance, with some discrepancy among them. The chronology of settlement and pairing did not vary across the disturbance gradient, whereas nest initiation tended to occur earlier at sites with more disturbance. If the pattern of suboptimal selection of breeding sites that we identified is generalizable across other populations of migratory birds affected by energy development, the resultant lower fitness in those areas may exacerbate population declines. Our results suggest that traditional, single-index approaches to the study of habitat selection, if chosen carefully, may provide adequate inference on habitat preferences. Different metrics, however, can lead to at least subtle differences in patterns of habitat selection. The simultaneous examination of multiple indices of preference across a diversity of systems would help clarify the contexts under which preference metrics can become decoupled.

Wyoming↗