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At least 1,549 records · Page 86Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Modified Methodology for Projecting Coastal Louisiana Land Changes over the Next 50 Years

The coastal Louisiana landscape is continually undergoing geomorphologic changes (in particular, land loss); however, after the 2005 hurricane season, the changes were intensified because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The amount of land loss caused by the 2005 hurricane season was 42 percent (562 km2) of the total land loss (1,329 km2) that was projected for the next 50 years in the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), Louisiana Ecosystem Restoration Study. The purpose of this study is to provide information on potential changes to coastal Louisiana by using a revised LCA study methodology. In the revised methodology, we used classified Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1990, 2001, 2004, and 2006 to calculate the 'background' or ambient land-water change rates but divided the Louisiana coastal area differently on the basis of (1) geographic regions ('subprovinces') and (2) specific homogeneous habitat types. Defining polygons by subprovinces (1, Pontchartrain Basin; 2, Barataria Basin; 3, Vermilion/Terrebonne Basins; and 4, the Chenier Plain area) allows for a specific erosion rate to be applied to that area. Further subdividing the provinces by habitat type allows for specific erosion rates for a particular vegetation type to be applied. Our modified methodology resulted in 24 polygons rather than the 183 that were used in the LCA study; further, actively managed areas and the CWPPRA areas were not masked out and dealt with separately as in the LCA study. This revised methodology assumes that erosion rates for habitat types by subprovince are under the influence of similar environmental conditions (sediment depletion, subsidence, and saltwater intrusion). Background change rate for three time periods (1990-2001, 1990-2004, and 1990-2006) were calculated by taking the difference in water or land among each time period and dividing it by the time interval. This calculation gives an annual change rate for each polygon per time period. Change rates for each time period were then used to compute the projected change in each subprovince and habitat type over 50 years by using the same compound rate functions used in the LCA study. The resulting maps show projected land changes based on the revised methodology and inclusion of damage by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Comparison of projected land change values between the LCA study and this study shows that this revised methodology - that is, using a reduced polygon subset (reduced from 183 to 24) based on habitat type and subprovince - can be used as a quick projection of land loss.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS1996

Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows in Maryland

A convenient and reliable technique for estimating flood magnitudes is required for effective flood-plain management and for the efficient design of bridges, culverts, embankments, and flood-protection structures. Methods are presented for estimating peak-flow magnitudes of selected frequencies, ranging from 2 to 500 years, for all nontidal drainage basins in Maryland. The methods were developed by generalized least-squares regression techniques using data from 219 gaged basins in and near Maryland. The State is divided into five hydrologic regions: the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, the Piedmont region, the Western Coastal Plain region, and the Eastern Coastal Plain region. These regions correspond to the physiographic provinces of the State, with the exceptions that (1) the Coastal Plain Province is divided into two hydrologic regions, and (2) there is no distinct hydrologic region corresponding to the Valley and Ridge Province as it is divided into its constituent Allegheny Ridges and Great Valley subdivisions. Sets of equations for calculating peak discharges based on physical basin characteristics are provided for each of the regions. Based on the peak-flow equations, methods for estimating peak flows are presented for ungaged and gaged streams in Maryland. The methods and equations are supported by generalized least-squares analysis of basin and flood-frequency characteristics data from 219 drainage basins in and near Maryland. estimates for each of the five regions are calculated using combinations of the fol-lowing basin characteristics: drainage area, forest cover, basin relief, carbonate rock coverage, storage, and runoff-curve number. Drainage area contributes to the estimate in all five study regions. Carbonate rock coverage is used only in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region. Storage and runoff-curve number are used solely in the Eastern Coastal Plain region. All other basin characteristics are used in two or more regions. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations range from 19 to 31 percent in the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, 34 to 47 percent in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, 33 to 48 percent in the Piedmont region, 45 to 64 percent in the Western Coastal Plain region, and 36 to 42 percent in the Eastern Coastal Plain region.

Maryland↗
USGS1994

Life-history organization of Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki bouvieri) in Yellowstone Lake

Life-history organization of the cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki) may be viewed at various levels, including species, subspecies, metapopulation, population, or individual. Each level varies in spatial scale and temporal persistence, and components at each level continually change with changes in environment. Cutthroat trout are widely distributed throughout the western United States, occurring in such diverse environments as coastal rivers of the Pacific Northwest and interior streams of the Great Basin. During its evolution the species has organized into 14 subspecies with many different life-history characteristics and habitat requirements. Within subspecies, organization is equally complex. For example, life-history traits, such as average size and age, migration strategy, and migration timing, vary among individual spawning populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki bouvieri) in tributary streams of Yellowstone Lake. Understanding the effects of human perturbations on life-history organization is critical for management of the cutthroat trout and other polytypic salmonid species. Loss of diversity at any hierarchical level jeopardizes the long-term ability of the species to adapt to changing environments, and it may also lead to increased fluctuations in abundance and yield and increase the risk of extinction.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic data and groundwater-flow simulations in the Brown Ditch Watershed, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected data and simulated groundwater flow to increase understanding of the hydrology and the effects of drainage alterations on the water table in the vicinity of Great Marsh, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana. Prior land-management practices have modified drainage and caused changes in the distribution of open water, streams and ditches, and groundwater abundance and flow paths. Collected hydrologic data indicate that the majority of water entering Great Marsh flows from the southern dune ridge beneath Town of Pines, Indiana. Groundwater flow is intercepted by Brown Ditch in the eastern portion of the study area and Derby Ditch in the western portion of the study area. A smaller amount of groundwater from the northern dune ridge beneath Beverly Shores also contributed water to Great Marsh. Continuous groundwater-level data collected indicate that the predominant north-south groundwater-flow gradients vary during the course of the year due to increased levels of precipitation or during periods of drainage obstructions. Continuous surface-water discharge and surface-water elevation were measured at three USGS streamgages, one each on Brown, Kintzele and Derby Ditches. The monthly mean discharge statistics indicate that during the period of record— June 2012 to September 2013—streamflow in Kintzele Ditch was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. In Derby Ditch, streamflow also was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. Periods of relatively high and low groundwater levels during August 1982, March 2013, and April 2014 were examined and simulated by using MODFLOW and companion software. Results from the simulation of conditions during March 2013 include that nearly 100 percent of all water entering the area simulating Town of Pines is from recharge. Of all the water simulated to enter the eastern and western portions of Great Marsh, nearly 20 and 18 percent, respectively, flows from Town of Pines to the western and eastern portions of Great Marsh. The dune ridges beneath Town of Pines and to a lesser extent beneath Beverly Shores are a major source of recharge to the surficial aquifer and Great Marsh. Results from the simulation of the conditions of April 2014 include that, despite increases in the amount of water entering Great Marsh due to a beaver-dam-modified hydrologic condition, there is still virtually zero simulated groundwater flow from Great Marsh to Town of Pines. The volume of water simulated to be entering the zone representing Beverly Shores decreased by 0.43 cubic foot per second from the results of the March 2013 simulation. This simulated difference in water budgets can be attributed to increased simulated recharge in Great Marsh and Town of Pines. Effects of the inclusion of the beaver dam included the increase of the simulated water table and simulated inundated area upstream of the beaver dam due to the effects of ponding surface water. Results from the simulation scenario that includes six proposed pool-riffle control structures in Brown Ditch under the hydrologic conditions of March 2013 indicate areas inundated by water are larger, including areas just to the north of the entrance of Brown Ditch into Great Marsh, and areas north of the confluence of Brown and Kintzele Ditches. Results from the scenario simulating the increase of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical high of May 31, 1998, showed inundated areas of Great Marsh south of Beverly Shores enlarged on both sides of Lakeshore County Road with the greatest enlargement simulated to be southeast of the intersection of Lakeshore County Road and Beverly Drive. For the scenario simulating the decrease of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical low of December 23, 2007, results show little change from the original March 2013 inundated area. The results of this study can be used by water-resource managers to understand how surrounding ditches affect water levels in Great Marsh and other inland wetlands and residential areas. The groundwater model developed can be applied to answer questions about how alterations to the drainage system in the area affects water levels in the public and residential areas surrounding Great Marsh. The modeling methods developed in this study provide a template for other studies of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the shallow surficial aquifer in northern Indiana, and in similar hydrologic settings that include surficial sand aquifers in coastal areas.

Indiana↗
USGS1972

Geohydrologic summary of the Pearl River basin, Mississippi and Louisiana

Fresh water in abundance is contained in large artesian reservoirs in sand and gravel deposits of Tertiary and Quaternary ages in the Pearl River basin, a watershed of 8,760 square miles. Shallow, water-table reservoirs occur in Quarternary deposits (Pleistocene and Holocene) that blanket most of the uplands in .the southern half of the basin and that are present in smaller upland areas and along streams elsewhere. The shallow reservoirs contribute substantially to dry-weather flow of the Strong River and Bogue Chitto and of Holiday, Lower Little, Silver, and Whitesand Creeks, among others. About 3 billion acre-feet of ground water is in storage in the fresh-water section, which extends from the surface to depths ranging from about sea level in the extreme northern part of the basin to more than 3,000 feet below sea level in the southern part of the basin. Variations in low flow for different parts of the river basin are closely related to geologic terrane and occurrence of ground water. The upland terrace belt that crosses the south-central part of the basin is underlain by permeable sand and gravel deposits and yields more than 0.20 cubic feet per second per square mile of drainage area to streamflow, whereas the northern part of the basin, underlain by clay, marl, and fine to medium sand, yields less than 0.05 cubic feet per second per square mile of drainage area (based on 7-day Q2 minimum flow computed from records). Overall, the potential surface-water supplies are large. Because water is available at shallow depths, most of the deeper aquifers have not been developed anywhere in the basin. At many places in the south, seven or more aquifers could be developed either by tapping one sand in each well or by screening two or more sands in a single well. Well fields each capable, of producing several million gallons of water a day are feasible nearly anywhere in the Pearl River basin. Water in nearly all the aquifers is of good to excellent quality and requires little or no treatment for most uses. The water is a soft, sodium bicarbonate type and therefore has a low to moderate dissolved-solids content. Mineral content increases generally downdip in an aquifer. Excessive iron, common in shallow aquifers, is objectionable for some water uses. Water from the streams, except in salty tidal reaches, is less mineralized than ground water; in 10 sites the median dissolved-solids content in streamflow was 50 milligrams per liter or less. Moderately intensive ground-water development has been made in the Bogalusa area, Louisiana; at the Mississippi Test Facility, Hancock County, Miss. ; and in the Jackson area, Mississippi. Wells with pumping rates of 500 to 1,000 gallons per minute each are common throughout the Pearl River basin, and some deep wells flow more than 3,000 gallons per minute in the coastal lowland areas. Probably 20 million gallons per day of artesian water flows uncontrolled from wells in the southern part of the basin. Ground-water levels, except in the higher altitudes, are within 60 feet of the surface, and flowing wells are common in the valleys and in the coastal Pine Meadows. Decline of water level is a problem in only a few small areas. Saline water as a resource is available for development from aquifers and streams near the coast and from aquifers at considerable depth in most of the Pearl River basin. Pollution is a problem in oil fields and in reaches of some streams below sewage and other waste-disposal points. The basin estuary contains water of variable quality but has potential for certain water-use developments that will require special planning and management.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2019

Eradication of two non-native cichlid fishes in Miami, Florida (USA)

The proliferation of non-native fishes in Florida is a serious problem, and new species continue to be introduced to the state. Fishes in the Family Cichlidae have been especially successful colonizers of south Florida freshwater habitats. Herein we report a multi-agency effort to eradicate two non-native cichlid fishes in Miami, Florida (Bay Snook Petenia splendida and Blue Mbuna Labeotropheus fuelleborni). These fishes were removed before they were observed in the extensive, interconnected canal system through which they may have been able to expand throughout south Florida and access protected areas such as Everglades National Park. The study site, Pinecrest Gardens, is important because it contains remnant coastal cypress-strand habitat in an increasingly urbanized landscape that historically provided refuge to native amphidromous fishes and invertebrates. The project took considerable time (3.5 years), and we detail in this report how it evolved from a focus on isolating the non-native fishes and reducing their population sizes to an eradication. Gardens’ staff hydrologically isolated their ponds from nearby waterbodies by plugging a culvert with a solid gate. That provided the interagency team with more time to remove the potential threats. Compromises were made between fish management strategies and the Gardens’ priorities. Hurricane impacts helped shift priorities to more aggressive fish-management strategies. Cooperation among several federal and state agencies, as well as the Gardens, was key to the project’s success. We hope this effort may serve as a model for removing non-native species before they spread into ecosystems where eradication is not practical.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Linking variability in climate to wetland habitat suitability: Is it possible to forecast regional responses from simple climate measures?

Temporary wetlands have value to both ecological and social systems. Interactions between local climate and the surrounding landscape result in patterns of hydrology that are unique to temporary wetlands. These seasonal and annual fluctuations in wetland inundation contribute to community composition and richness. Thus, predicting wetland community responses to environmental change is tied to the ability to predict wetland hydroregime. Detailed monitoring of wetland hydroregime is resource-intensive, limiting the scope and scale of forecasting. As an alternative, we determine which freely available measures of water availability best predict one component of wetland hydroregime, habitat suitability (i.e., the predictability of water in a wetland) within and among geographic regions. We used data from three North American regions to determine the climate index that best explained year-to-year variation in habitat suitability during a key phenological period—amphibian breeding. We demonstrate that simple, short-term climate indices based solely on precipitation data best predict habitat suitability in vernal pools in the northeast, montane wetlands in the west and coastal plain wetlands in the southeast. These relationships can help understand how changes in short-term precipitation patterns as a result of climate change may influence the overall hydroregime, and resulting biodiversity, of temporary wetlands across disparate biomes.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗
USGS2016

Critical assessment and ramifications of a purported marine trophic cascade

When identifying potential trophic cascades, it is important to clearly establish the trophic linkages between predators and prey with respect to temporal abundance, demographics, distribution, and diet. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the depletion of large coastal sharks was thought to trigger a trophic cascade whereby predation release resulted in increased cownose ray abundance, which then caused increased predation on and subsequent collapse of commercial bivalve stocks. These claims were used to justify the development of a predator-control fishery for cownose rays, the “Save the Bay, Eat a Ray” fishery, to reduce predation on commercial bivalves. A reexamination of data suggests declines in large coastal sharks did not coincide with purported rapid increases in cownose ray abundance. Likewise, the increase in cownose ray abundance did not coincide with declines in commercial bivalves. The lack of temporal correlations coupled with published diet data suggest the purported trophic cascade is lacking the empirical linkages required of a trophic cascade. Furthermore, the life history parameters of cownose rays suggest they have low reproductive potential and their populations are incapable of rapid increases. Hypothesized trophic cascades should be closely scrutinized as spurious conclusions may negatively influence conservation and management decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ne↗
USGS2015

The quality of our Nation's waters: Water quality in the Mississippi embayment-Texas coastal uplands aquifer system and Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, south-central United States, 1994-2008

About 8 million people rely on groundwater from the Mississippi embayment—Texas coastal uplands aquifer system for drinking water. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer also provides drinking water for domestic use in rural areas but is of primary importance to the region as a source of water for irrigation. Irrigation withdrawals from this aquifer are among the largest in the Nation and play a key role in the economy of the area, where annual crop sales total more than $7 billion. The reliance of the region on both aquifers for drinking water and irrigation highlights the importance of long-term management to sustain the availability and quality of these resources.

Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississipp↗
USGS2012

Understanding beach health throughout the Great Lakes -- continuing research

The overall mission of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Beach Health Initiative is to provide science-based information and methods that will allow beach managers to more accurately make beach closure and advisory decisions, understand the sources and physical processes affecting beach contaminants, and understand how science-based information can be used to mitigate and restore beaches and protect the public. The USGS, in collaboration with many Federal, State, and local agencies and universities, has conducted research on beach-health issues in the Great Lakes Region for more than a decade. The work consists of four science elements that align with the initiative's mission: real-time assessments of water quality; coastal processes; pathogens and source tracking; and data analysis, interpretation, and communication. The ongoing or completed research for each of these elements is described in this fact sheet.

Wisconsin;New York;Michigan;Ohio;Indiana↗
USGS1999

Biogeographical profiles of shorebird migration in midcontinental North America

The biogeographic information described here will help identify the uniqueness of different regions of the plains to migrating shorebirds. Although shorebirds migrating along Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas are capable of long jumps between refueling stops, there is evidence that some species move short rather than long distances between refueling sites. Maps of distribution patterns and chronology accounts can lend insight towards understanding migration strategies of the different shorebird species. This report focuses on the distribution patterns of enroute migrants that refuel in interior wetlands during migration. We provide information on the spatial and temporal occurrence and habitat requirements for individual species and groups of species with the intent that this information be used in guiding management efforts.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Montana, Wyoming,↗
USGS2020

Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis

Tsunami risk management requires strategies that can address multiple sources with different recurrence intervals, wave-arrival times, and inundation extents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) provides a structured way to integrate multiple sources, including the uncertainties due to the natural variability and limited knowledge of sources. PTHA-based products relate to specific average return periods (ARP) and while there has been considerable attention paid to ARP choice for building codes, guidance on ARP choice to support evacuation planning and related land use is lacking. We use the State of California (USA) coastal communities as a case study to explore the use of geospatial analysis and pedestrian-evacuation modeling for comparing the societal implications of tsunamis based on evacuation areas that reflect inundation from 475-year, 975-year, and 2475-year ARPs. Results demonstrate that changes in PTHA ARP had a substantial effect on the number of tax-lot parcels in PTHA evacuation areas, but not on the primary land use of these parcels or which communities had the largest number of exposed parcels. Composite PTHA maps provided high-level insights on hazard exposure and identified dominant sources; however, disaggregated PTHA outputs that reflect single source parameters (e.g., wave-arrival time) were necessary to quantify evacuation potential from local and distant tsunamis. Framing changes in ARP assumption based on changes in the number, land-use type, and potential evacuation challenges of parcels in evacuation areas can provide valuable insight on the real-world implications of which ARP to use in land use or evacuation planning.

California↗
USGS2008

Coordinating across scales: Building a regional marsh bird monitoring program from national and state Initiatives

Salt marsh breeding bird populations (rails, bitterns, sparrows, etc.) in eastern North America are high conservation priorities in need of site specific and regional monitoring designed to detect population changes over time. The present status and trends of these species are unknown but anecdotal evidence of declines in many of the species has raised conservation concerns. Most of these species are listed as conservation priorities on comprehensive wildlife plans throughout the eastern U.S. National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service units, and other wildlife conservation areas provide important salt marsh habitat. To meet management needs for these areas, and to assist regional conservation planning, survey designs are being developed to estimate abundance and population trends for these breeding bird species. The primary purpose of this project is to develop a hierarchical sampling frame for salt marsh birds in Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 30 that will provide the ability to estimate species population abundances on 1) specific sites (i.e. National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges), 2) within states or regions, and 3) within BCR 30. The entire breeding range of Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed and Coastal Plain Swamp sparrows are within BCR 30, providing an opportunity to detect population trends within the entire breeding ranges of two priority species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Integrating distance sampling survey data with population indices to separate trends in abundance and temporary immigration

Managers rely on accurate estimators of wildlife abundance and trends for management decisions. Despite the focus of contemporary wildlife science on developing methods to improve inference from wildlife surveys, legacy datasets often rely on index counts that lack information about the detection process. Data integration can be a useful tool for combining index counts with data collected under more rigorous designs (i.e., designs that account for the detection process), but care is required when datasets represent different population processes or are mismatched in space and time. This can be particularly problematic in cases where animals aggregate in response to a spatially or temporally limited resource because individuals may temporarily immigrate from outside the study area and be included in the abundance index. Abundance indices based on brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) feeding aggregations within coastal meadows in early summer in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA, are one such example. These indices reflect the target population (brown bears residing within the park) and temporary immigrants (i.e., bears drawn from outside the park boundary). To properly account for the effects of temporary immigration, we integrated the index data with abundance data collected via park-wide distance sampling surveys, the latter of which properly addressed the detection process. By assuming that the distance data provide inference on abundance and the index counts represent some combination of abundance and temporary immigration processes, we were able to decompose the relative contribution of each to overall trend. We estimated that the density of brown bears within our study area was 38–54 adults/1,000 km 2 during 2003–2019 and that abundance increased at a rate of approximately 1.4%/year. The contribution of temporary immigrants to overall trend in the index was low, so we created 3 hypothetical scenarios to more fully demonstrate how the integrated approach could be useful in situations where the composite trend in meadow counts may obscure trends in abundance (e.g., opposing trends in abundance and temporary immigration). Our work represents a conceptual advance supporting the integration of legacy index data with more rigorous data streams and is broadly applicable in cases where trends in index values may represent a mixture of population processes.

Alaska↗
USGS2003

Habitat characteristics of polar bear terrestrial maternal den sites in northern Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) give birth to and nurture their young in dens of ice and snow. During 1999-2001, we measured the structure of 22 dens on the coastal plain of northern Alaska after polar bear families had evacuated their dens in the spring. During the summers of 2001 and 2002, we revisited the sites of 42 maternal and autumn exploratory dens and recorded characteristics of the under-snow habitat. The structure of polar bear snow dens was highly variable. Most were simple chambers with a single entrance/egress tunnel. Others had multiple chambers and additional tunnels. Thickness of snow above and below dens was highly variable, but most dens were overlain by less than 1 m of snow. Dens were located on, or associated with, pronounced landscape features (primarily coastal and river banks, but also a lake shore and an abandoned oil field gravel pad) that are readily distinguished from the surrounding terrain in summer and catch snow in early winter. Although easily identified, den landforms in northern Alaska were more subtle than den habitats in many other parts of the Arctic. The structure of polar bear dens in Alaska was strikingly similar to that of dens elsewhere and has remained largely unchanged in northern Alaska for more than 25 years. Knowledge of den structure and site characteristics will allow resource managers to identify habitats with the greatest probability of holding dens. This information may assist resource managers in preventing negative impacts of mineral exploration and extraction on polar bears.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

EAARL-B coastal topography: Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 2012: seamless (bare earth and submerged)

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of light detection and ranging ( lidar )-derived seamless (bare-earth and submerged) topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ), St . Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St . Petersburg, Florida. This project provides datasets acquired on August 7 and 8, 2012, for a portion of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana. An innovative airborne lidar system, known as the second-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar ( EAARL -B), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL -B system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometers) lidar designed to map nearshore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Lidar for Science and Resource Management Web site.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

The risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Mexico

Coastal development and climate change are dramatically increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and extreme weather events. Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems act as natural defenses against coastal hazards, but their degradation increases risk to people and property. Environmental degradation, however, has rarely been quantified as a driver of coastal risk. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region on the Mexican Caribbean coast with an annual tourism economy of 10 billion USD, coral reefs constitute a natural barrier against flooding from hurricanes. This study spatially quantifies the risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Quintana Roo for people, buildings, and hotel infrastructure. The risk reduction benefits are substantial. For example, the reefs prevented 43% additional damage during Hurricane Dean in (2007) and provide nowadays hazard risk reduction for 4.3% of the people, 1.9% of the built capital, and 2.4% of the hotel infrastructure, per year. The annual benefits are estimated in 4,600 people, 42 million USD damage prevention for buildings, and 20.8 million USD for hotel infrastructure. The study also compares the risk reduction of coral reefs with (i) the protection offered by dunes and (ii) the increase in coastal risk from sea-level rise (SLR). The risk reduction of dunes is more critical where there are no coral reefs offshore and for small return-periods storms. Sea-level rise, however, will make the more frequent storms more impactful and will drive significant increases in annual expected damages across the region. However, we demonstrate that, in coral reef environments, the contribution of reef degradation to coastal risk is larger than the expected increase in risk from SLR. However, the spatial distribution of the risk reduction benefits from reefs differs for people and infrastructure, and in particular for hotels, which receive the most protection from reefs. Furthermore, many sections present larger benefits than the typical costs of restoration. This valuation makes a compelling case for protecting and maintaining this natural infrastructure for its risk reduction service, but also allows the development of piloting innovative strategies, such as risk finance and insurance strategies, that can align environmental and risk management goals.

Mesoamerican Reef↗
USGS2007

Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS): A regional prototype for a national problem

Recent Hurricanes Katrina and Isabel, among others, not only demonstrated their immense destructive power, but also revealed the obvious, crucial need for improved storm surge forecasting and information delivery to save lives and property in future storms. Current operational methods and the storm surge and inundation products do not adequately meet requirements needed by Emergency Managers (EMs) at local, state, and federal levels to protect and inform our citizens. The Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) is being developed to improve the accuracy, reliability, and capability of flooding forecasts for tropical cyclones and non-tropical wind systems such as nor'easters by modeling and visualizing expected on-land storm-surge inundation along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. An initial prototype has been developed by a team of government, academic and industry partners through the Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (MACOORA) within the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). For demonstration purposes, this initial prototype was developed for the tidal Potomac River in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. The preliminary information from this prototype shows great potential as a mechanism by which NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices (WFOs) can provide more specific and timely forecasts of likely inundation in individual localities from significant storm surge events. This prototype system has shown the potential to indicate flooding at the street level, at time intervals of an hour or less, and with vertical resolution of one foot or less. This information will significantly improve the ability of EMs and first responders to mitigate life and property loss and improve evacuation capabilities in individual communities. This paper provides an update and expansion of the initial prototype that was presented at the Oceans 2006 MTS/IEEE Conference in Boston, MA. ??2007 MTS.

Conference Paper↗