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Precipitation uncertainty estimation and rainfall-runoff model calibration using iterative ensemble smoothers

The introduction of iterative ensemble smoothers (IES) for parameter calibration opens avenues for expanding parameter space in surface water hydrologic modeling. Here, we have introduced independent parameters into a model calibration experiment to estimate errors in rainfall forcing data. This approach has the potential to estimate rainfall errors using other hydrological observations and to improve model calibration. Using high-resolution rain gauge data, we estimated “real” rainfall errors across the Turkey River watershed at storm and daily scales. Tests on synthetic and real-world scenarios successfully estimated errors correlated with observed values – even at daily scales. However, a bias remained from model parameter compensation, and identifying errors was challenging for low precipitation and snowfall. Despite synthetic results showing good error correlation, the biases in parameter identification masked potential improvements in hydrological calibration. This study highlights the potential of IES to provide additional information on rainfall errors, even only using streamflow observations.

Advances in Water Resources↗

Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

The hydrogeology and hydrologic characteristics of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system were characterized as part of ongoing U.S. Geological Survey efforts to assess groundwater availability across the Nation. The need for such a study in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province (Ozark Plateaus) is highlighted by increasing demand on groundwater resources by the 5.3 million people of the Ozark Plateaus, water-level declines in some areas, and potential impacts of climate change on groundwater availability. The subject study integrates knowledge gained through local investigation within a regional perspective to develop a regional conceptual model of groundwater flow in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (Ozark system), a key phase of groundwater availability assessment. The Ozark system extends across much of southern Missouri and northwestern and north-central Arkansas and smaller areas of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. The region is one of the major karst landscapes in the United States, and karst aquifers are predominant in the Ozark system. Groundwater flow is ultimately controlled by aquifer and confining unit lithologies and stratigraphic relations, geologic structure, karst development, and the character of surficial lithologies and regolith mantle. The regolith mantle is a defining element of Ozark Plateaus karst, affecting recharge, karst development, and vulnerability to surface-derived contaminants. Karst development is more advanced—as evidenced by larger springs, hydraulic characteristics, and higher well yields—in the Salem Plateau and in the northern part of the Springfield Plateau (generally north of the Arkansas-Missouri border) as compared with the southern part of the Springfield Plateau in Arkansas, largely due to thinner, less extensive regolith and purer carbonate lithology. Precipitation is the ultimate source of all water to the Ozark system, and the hydrologic budget for the Ozark system includes inputs from recharge, losing-stream sections, and groundwater inflows and losses of water to gaining-stream sections, groundwater withdrawals, and surface-water and groundwater outflows to neighboring systems. Groundwater recharge, estimated by a soil-water-balance model, represents about 24 percent, or 11 inches, of 43.9 inches annual precipitation. Recharge is spatially variable, being greater in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau than in the southern Springfield Plateau (generally south of the Arkansas border) because of differences in regolith mantle extent and thickness and carbonate lithology and hydraulic properties. Increased precipitation and decreased agricultural land use during the period 1951 through 2011 increased recharge by approximately 5 percent. Although all Ozark streams have losing, neutral, and gaining sections, they are dominantly gaining and are a net sink for groundwater with nearly 90 percent of groundwater recharge returned to springs and streams. Groundwater pumping is a small but important loss of water in the Ozark system hydrologic budget; water-level declines and local cones of depression have been observed around pumping centers and strong concerns exist over potential effects on stream and spring flow. Data indicate that societal needs for freshwater resources in the Ozark Plateaus will continue to increase and will do so in the context of changing climate and hydrology. Groundwater will continue to be an important part of supporting these societal needs and also local ecosystems. The unique character and hydrogeologic variability across the Ozark system will control how the system responds to future stress. Groundwater of the Ozark system in the northern study area is more dynamic, has greater storage and larger flux, and has greater potential for further development than in the part of the study area south of the Arkansas-Missouri border. Further south in Arkansas, a line exists, roughly defined as 5 miles south of the Springfield Plateau-Boston Mountains boundary, beyond which further extensive municipal or commercial development appears unlikely under current economic and resource-need conditions. A small part of the Ozark system groundwater budget is currently drafted for use, leaving an apparently large component available for further development and use—particularly in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau; however, the effects of increased pumping on groundwater’s role in maintaining ecosystems and ecosystem services are not quantitatively well understood, and the close relation between groundwater and surface water highlights the importance of further quantitative assessment.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Potentiometric Surfaces in the Springfield Plateau and Ozark Aquifers of Northwestern Arkansas, Southeastern Kansas, Southwestern Missouri, and Northeastern Oklahoma, 2006

The Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers are important sources of ground water in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system. Water from these aquifers is used for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and municipal water sources. Changing water use over time in these aquifers presents a need for updated potentiometric-surface maps of the Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers. The Springfield Plateau aquifer consists of water-bearing Mississippian-age limestone and chert. The Ozark aquifer consists of Late Cambrian to Middle Devonian age water-bearing rocks consisting of dolostone, limestone, and sandstone. Both aquifers are complex with areally varying lithologies, discrete hydrologic units, varying permeabilities, and secondary permeabilities related to fractures and karst features. During the spring of 2006, ground-water levels were measured in 285 wells. These data, and water levels from selected lakes, rivers, and springs, were used to create potentiometric-surface maps for the Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers. Linear kriging was used initially to construct the water-level contours on the maps; the contours were subsequently modified using hydrologic judgment. The potentiometric-surface maps presented in this report represent ground-water conditions during the spring of 2006. During the spring of 2006, the region received less than average rainfall. Dry conditions prior to the spring of 2006 could have contributed to the observed water levels as well. The potentiometric-surface map of the Springfield Plateau aquifer shows a maximum measured water-level altitude within the study area of about 1,450 feet at a spring in Barry County, Missouri, and a minimum measured water-level altitude of 579 feet at a well in Ottawa County, Oklahoma. Cones of depression occur in Dade, Lawrence and Newton Counties in Missouri and Delaware and Ottawa Counties in Oklahoma. These cones of depression are associated with private wells. Ground water in the Springfield Plateau aquifer generally flows to the west in the study area, and to surface features (lakes, rivers, and springs) particularly in the south and east of the study area where the Springfield Plateau aquifer is closest to land surface. The potentiometric-surface map of the Ozark aquifer indicates a maximum measured water-level altitude of 1,303 feet in the study area at a well in Washington County, Arkansas, and a minimum measured water-level altitude of 390 feet in Ottawa County, Oklahoma. The water in the Ozark aquifer generally flows to the northwest in the northern part of the study area and to the west in the remaining study area. Cones of depression occur in Barry, Barton, Cedar, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton, and Vernon Counties in Missouri, Cherokee and Crawford Counties in Kansas, and Craig and Ottawa Counties in Oklahoma. These cones of depression are associated with municipal supply wells. The flow directions, based on both potentiometric-surface maps, generally agree with flow directions indicated by previous studies.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Transport and fate of nitrate at the ground-water/surface-water interface

Although numerous studies of hyporheic exchange and denitrification have been conducted in pristine, high-gradient streams, few studies of this type have been conducted in nutrient-rich, low-gradient streams. This is a particularly important subject given the interest in nitrogen (N) inputs to the Gulf of Mexico and other eutrophic aquatic systems. A combination of hydrologic, mineralogical, chemical, dissolved gas, and isotopic data were used to determine the processes controlling transport and fate of NO 3 − in streambeds at five sites across the USA. Water samples were collected from streambeds at depths ranging from 0.3 to 3 m at three to five points across the stream and in two to five separate transects. Residence times of water ranging from 0.28 to 34.7 d m −1 in the streambeds of N-rich watersheds played an important role in allowing denitrification to decrease NO 3 − concentrations. Where potential electron donors were limited and residence times were short, denitrification was limited. Consequently, in spite of reducing conditions at some sites, NO 3 − was transported into the stream. At two of the five study sites, NO 3 − in surface water infiltrated the streambeds and concentrations decreased, supporting current models that NO 3 − would be retained in N-rich streams. At the other three study sites, hydrogeologic controls limited or prevented infiltration of surface water into the streambed, and ground-water discharge contributed to NO 3 − loads. Our results also show that in these low hydrologic-gradient systems, storm and other high-flow events can be important factors for increasing surface-water movement into streambeds.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Design and Compilation of a Geodatabase of Existing Salinity Information for the Rio Grande Basin, from the Rio Arriba-Sandoval County Line, New Mexico, to Presidio, Texas, 2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, compiled salinity-related water-quality data and information in a geodatabase containing more than 6,000 sampling sites. The geodatabase was designed as a tool for water-resource management and includes readily available digital data sources from the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, Paso del Norte Watershed Council, numerous other State and local databases, and selected databases maintained by the University of Arizona and New Mexico State University. Salinity information was compiled for an approximately 26,000-square-mile area of the Rio Grande Basin from the Rio Arriba-Sandoval County line, New Mexico, to Presidio, Texas. The geodatabase relates the spatial location of sampling sites with salinity-related water-quality data reported by multiple agencies. The sampling sites are stored in a geodatabase feature class; each site is linked by a relationship class to the corresponding sample and results stored in data tables.

Data Series↗

Statistical methods in water resources

Preface This book began as class notes for a course we teach on applied statistical methods to hydrologists of the Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). It reflects our attempts to teach statistical methods which are appropriate for analysis of water resources data. As interest in this course has grown outside of the USGS, incentive grew to develop the material into a textbook. The topics covered are those we feel are of greatest usefulness to the practicing water resources scientist. Yet all topics can be directly applied to many other types of environmental data. This book is not a stand-alone text on statistics, or a text on statistical hydrology. For example, in addition to this material we use a textbook on introductory statistics in the USGS training course. As a consequence, discussions of topics such as probability theory required in a general statistics textbook will not be found here. Derivations of most equations are not presented. Important tables included in all general statistics texts, such as quantiles of the normal distribution, are not found here. Neither are details of how statistical distributions should be fitted to flood data -- these are adequately covered in numerous books on statistical hydrology. We have instead chosen to emphasize topics not always found in introductory statistics textbooks, and often not adequately covered in statistical textbooks for scientists and engineers. Tables included here, for example, are those found more often in books on nonparametric statistics than in books likely to have been used in college courses for engineers. This book points the environmental and water resources scientist to robust and nonparametric statistics, and to exploratory data analysis. We believe that the characteristics of environmental (and perhaps most other 'real') data drive analysis methods towards use of robust and nonparametric methods. Exercises are included at the end of chapters. In our course, students compute each type of analysis (t-test, regression, etc.) the first time by hand. We choose the smaller, simpler examples for hand computation. In this way the mechanics of the process are fully understood, and computer software is seen as less mysterious. We wish to acknowledge and thank several other scientists at the U. S. Geological Survey for contributing ideas to this book. In particular, we thank those who have served as the other instructors at the USGS training course. Ed Gilroy has critiqued and improved much of the material found in this book. Tim Cohn has contributed in several areas, particularly to the sections on bias correction in regression, and methods for data below the reporting limit. Richard Alexander has added to the trend analysis chapter, and Charles Crawford has contributed ideas for regression and ANOVA. Their work has undoubtedly made its way into this book without adequate recognition. Professor Ken Potter (University of Wisconsin) and Dr. Gary Tasker (USGS) reviewed the manuscript, spending long hours with no reward except the knowledge that they have improved the work of others. For that we are very grateful. We also thank Madeline Sabin, who carefully typed original drafts of the class notes on which the book is based. As always, the responsibility for all errors and slanted thinking are ours alone.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Hydrologic monitoring in the area of the proposed Yazoo River navigation project, west-central Mississippi, 1978-80

The ground—water level data presented in this report were collected in conjunction with a study of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in part of the Yazoo River Basin. Funding for the collection of water—level data was provided by the Vicksburg District, Corps of Engineers, who also drilled the observation wells and surveyed elevations of the top of the casing of each well. The wells were drilled to obtain data on seasonal changes in ground—water levels, areas of recharge and/or discharge, and on direction of movement of water in the alluvial aquifer. This report is intended to document the data.

Mississippi↗

Selected hydrologic data for farmland treated with sewage sludge near Platteville, Colorado, 1985-91

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District, studied the ground-water-quality effects of the application of anaerobic digested municipal sewage sludge at agronomic rates to farmland near Platteville. Beginning in the fall of 1985, the sludge was injected annually into the sandy farmland in a 1-square-mile area. Generally, water-quality samples were collected from observation wells two or three times during each irrigation season from 1985 through 1990 and once each winter or late spring from 1987 through early 1991. Water levels were measured, and water-quality, soil and soil-moisture samples, and precipitation data were collected at selected sites throughout the study area. This report presents the data collected during 1985-91 from observation wells, irrigation wells, domestic wells, and other selected sites in the study area.

Colorado↗

Hydrologic effects of well-field operations in a wetland, Dade County, Florida

Water-level, canal stage and discharge, and rainfall data collected in a wetland in Dade County, Florida, were analyzed to determine the effects of pumping at the Northwest Well Field on water levels in the wetland. The Northwest Well Field is the first major well field in south Florida to be operated in a wetland, away from saltwater intrusion and the potential for contamination caused by urbanization. Duration curves were used to analyze trends in water levels for seven observation wells near the Northwest Well Field. One observation well is 5.5 miles north of the well field, three wells are outside the cone of depression of the well field, and three are within the cone of depression. The water level data were analyzed for four time periods that were determined by a double-mass analysis of cumulative rainfall and cumulative canal discharge. Before 1984, water levels in all seven wells were above land surface 25 to 50 percent of the time. Since the well field began operating in 1984, water levels in the three wells within the cone of depression have been above land surface less than 1 percent of the time. Water levels at the four wells outside the cone of depression showed no effect from pumping at the well field. Water levels have declined in 30 percent of the 65- square mile study area since the well field began operating. In 15 percent of the area, water levels have been lowered below land surface.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water-quality data for pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants in ground water and in untreated drinking water sources in the United States, 2000-01

This report presents water-quality data from two nationwide studies on the occurrence and distribution of organic wastewater contaminants. These data are part of the continuing effort of the U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology Program to collect baseline information on the environmental occurrence of pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants. In 2000, samples were collected from 47 ambient ground-water sites (not drinking-water wells) in 18 states and analyzed for 65 organic wastewater contaminants. In the summer of 2001, samples were collected from 74 sources of raw, untreated, drinking water in 25 states and Puerto Rico and analyzed for 100 organic wastewater contaminants. These sources comprise 25 ground-water and 49 surface-water sources of drinking water serving populations ranging from one family to more than 8 million people. Site selection for both studies focused on areas known or suspected to contain sources of animal and/or human wastewater. The five most frequently detected compounds in samples collected from ambient ground-water sites are N,N-diethyltoluamide (35 percent, insect repellant), bisphenol A (30 percent, plasticizer), tri(2-chloroethy) phosphate (30 percent, fire retardant), sulfamethoxazole (23 percent, veterinary and human antibiotic), and 4-octylphenol monoethoxylate (19 percent, detergent metabolite). The five most frequently detected organic wastewater contaminants in samples of untreated drinking water from surface-water sources are cholesterol (59 percent, natural sterol), metolachlor (53 percent, herbicide), cotinine (51 percent, nicotine metabolite), β-sitosterol (37 percent, natural plant sterol), and 1,7-dimethylxanthine (27 percent, caffeine metabolite). The five most frequently detected organic wastewater contaminants in samples of untreated drinking water from ground-water sources are tetrachloroethylene (24 percent, solvent), carbamazepine (20 percent, pharmaceutical), bisphenol A (20 percent, plasticizer), 1,7-dimethylxanthine (16 percent, caffeine metabolite), and tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (12 percent, fire retardant).

Open-File Report↗

General summary of effects of the drought in the Southwest: Chapter H in Drought in the Southwest, 1942-56

This final chapter of Prof. Paper 372 summarizes the results of a comprehensive study of drought in the Southwest, as reported in greater detail in chapters A-G. Chapter A presents some of the published and recorded conclusions concerning the basic meteorological factors that influence the patterns of precipitation in the Southwest, and describes the characteristics of the drought of 1942-56 as indicated by meteorologic records. Chapter B is a general discussion of the effects of that drought as shown by hydrologic data. Subsequent chapters (C-G) provide more detailed evaluations of the effects of drought in individual river basins and specific localities. The effects of drought are discriminated from water shortages due to other causes wherever possible. For this summary, the hydrologic units in the Southwest are classified according to type, and examples of each type are cited, but no attempt is made to summarize the effects of drought in every hydrologic unit in the Southwest, as was described in preceding parts of this report. The comprehensive study of drought has required analysis of the longest records available concerning all aspects of the water resources, with special attention to the 1942-56 period to ascertain similarities with earlier drought periods and contrasts with periods of greater precipitation. Despite the intended emphasis on drought, the studies have been almost as broad in scope as general studies of interrelations of the hydrologic cycle.

Southwestern United States↗

The role of critical zone processes in the evolution of the Prairie Pothole Region wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region, which occupies 900,000 km2 of the north central USA and south central Canada, is one of the most important ecosystems in North America. It is characterized by millions of small wetlands whose chemistry is highly variable over short distances. The study involved the geochemistry of surface sediments, wetland water, and groundwater in the Cottonwood Lakes area of North Dakota, USA, whose 92 ha includes the dominant wetland hydrologic settings. The data show that oxygenated groundwater interacting with pyrite resident in a component of surficial glacial till derived from the marine Pierre Shale Formation has, over long periods of time, focused SO 4 2 - -bearing fluids from upland areas to topographically low areas. In these low areas, SO 4 2 - -enriched groundwater and wetlands have evolved, as has the CaSO4 mineral gypsum. Sulfur isotope data support the conclusion that isotopically light pyrite from marine shale is the source of SO 4 2 - . Literature data on wetland water composition suggests that this process has taken place over a large area in North Dakota.

North Dakota↗

U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Water-Resources Program in Nebraska

Federal, State, and local agencies share keen interests in appraising the Nation's water resources and in seeking solutions to waterrelated problems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Federal-State Cooperative Water-Resources Program was initiated in 1895 to address the diversity in missions and areas of responsibility of various agencies through joint planning and funding of hydrologic data collection, investigations, and research. During the 100-year history of the cooperative program, the USGS has performed many data-collection and investigation activities in cooperation with a variety of State and local agencies to help meet their goals and to carry out the principal mission of the Water Resources Division of the USGS--to further the understanding of water reSources throughout the Nation. The .cooperative program represents almost 50 percent of USGS water-related activities in Nebraska and is a vital component in addressing water issues of local, State, and National interest.

Nebraska↗

A compilation of U.S. Geological Survey pesticide concentration data for water and sediment in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta region: 1990–2010

Beginning around 2000, abundance indices of four pelagic fishes (delta smelt, striped bass, longfin smelt, and threadfin shad) within the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta began to decline sharply (Sommer and others, 2007). These declines collectively became known as the pelagic organism decline (POD). No single cause has been linked to this decline, and current theories suggest that combinations of multiple stressors are likely to blame. Contaminants (including current-use pesticides) are one potential stressor being investigated for its role in the POD (Anderson, 2007). Pesticide concentration data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at multiple sites in the delta region over the past two decades are critical to understanding the potential effects of current-use pesticides on species of concern as well as the overall health of the delta ecosystem. In April 2010, a compilation of contaminant data for the delta region was published by the State Water Resources Control Board (Johnson and others, 2010). Pesticide occurrence was the major focus of this report, which concluded that “there was insufficient high quality data available to make conclusions about the potential role of specific contaminants in the POD.” The report cited multiple sources; however, data collected by the USGS were not included in the publication even though these data met all criteria listed for inclusion in the report. What follows is a summary of publicly available USGS data for pesticide concentrations in surface water and sediments within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta region from the years 1990 through 2010. Data were retrieved though the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, a publicly available online-data repository (U.S. Geological Survey, 1998), and from published USGS reports (also available online at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/). The majority of the data were collected in support of two long term USGS monitoring programs—National Water Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA; http://water.usgs.gov/ nawqa/) and National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN; http://water.usgs.gov/nasqan/)—and through projects associated with the USGS Toxics Substances Hydrology Program (http://toxics.usgs.gov/). In addition, data were collected during multiple research projects that were supported by various federal, state, and local agencies. Although these data have been previously published in some form, it is hoped that by focusing on samples collected within the delta region and presenting these data in a concise format, they will be a valuable resource for scientists, resource managers, and members of the public working to understand the role of pesticides in the POD and their potential effects on the overall health of the delta ecosystem.

California↗

Flood-inundation maps and wetland restoration suitability index for the Blue River and selected tributaries, Kansas City, Missouri, and vicinity, 2012

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 39.7-mile reach of the Blue River and selected tributaries (Brush Creek, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch) at Kansas City, Missouri, and vicinity, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Kansas City, Missouri. The flood-inundation maps, accessed through the USGS Flood-Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the spatial extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at 15 reference streamgages and associated stream reaches in the Blue River Basin. Near-real-time stage data from the streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at selected sites. Flood profiles were computed for each of 15 reaches by means of one-dimensional or two-dimensional hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by using the current stage-streamflow relations at 10 USGS streamgages and documented high-water marks from the flood of June 14, 2010. Hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the National Weather Service Action stage, or near bankfull streamflow, through the stage corresponding to, or exceeding, the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) terrain model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a vertical accuracy of less than 0.6 foot and maximum nominal horizontal post spacing of 2.46–3.28 feet to delineate the area flooded at each 1-foot increment of stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts. Additional information in this report includes maps of simulated stream velocity for an 8.2-mile, two-dimensional modeled reach of the Blue River and a Wetland Restoration Suitability Index (WRSI) generated for the study area that was based on hydrologic, topographic, and land-use digital feature layers. The calculated WRSI for the selected flood-plain area ranged from 1 (least suitable for possible wetland mitigation efforts) to 10 (most suitable for possible wetland mitigation efforts). A WRSI of 5 to 10 is most closely associated with existing riparian wetlands in the study area. The WRSI allows for the identification of lands along the Blue River and selected tributaries that are most suitable for restoration or creation of wetlands. Alternatively, the index can be used to identify and avoid disturbances to areas with the highest potential to support healthy sustainable riparian wetlands.

Missouri↗