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USGS2018

Forecasting for dry and wet avalanches during mixed rain and snow storm events

Natural wet slab avalanches release when rain or melt water decreases snowpack strength, and natural dry slab avalanches release when an increased load overcomes snowpack strength. This study investigates avalanche activity resulting from mixed rain and snow falling on a faceted snowpack. This scenario produced an extensive slab avalanche cycle in March 2018 in the mountains near Ketchum, Idaho, when a 24 hour storm deposited 50 to 65 mm of water. We investigate the contributions of the pre-existing snowpack structure and weather to avalanching, and suggest possible mechanisms for the observed slab avalanche activity. At upper elevations, expected widespread, 0.5 to 3 m deep, dry slab avalanche activity occurred on many aspects. However, at middle elevations (2300 m to 2700 m) near the fluctuating rain-snow line, a low frequency return period avalanche cycle occurred in a much smaller geographical area, and was concentrated around north-northwest aspects. This differs significantly from avalanches above this elevation that spanned all aspects. This scenario illustrates the challenges forecasting and communicating these events. In our experience, some avalanche cycles exist in a continuum of avalanche types that are not easily sorted into simple “wet” and “dry” categories. We discuss challenges in using current advisory and bulletin communication tools. Furthermore, it is possible that a changing climate will increase the frequency of mixed rain-snow events in areas with traditionally drier and colder climates. We believe the avalanche community will benefit from the refinement and development of tools and techniques to describe and forecast this challenging problem.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

The demise of an icehouse: Calibrating the end of the LPIA

Earth has experienced three complete icehouse-greenhouse turnovers in the Phanerozoic, with the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) recognized as the last and most extreme icehouse. The nature, scale and dynamics of the LPIA are characterized by periods of intense glaciation, which are often interrupted by short-lived (1–2 Myrs) intervals associated with ice-free or distal from ice conditions. In this study, we focus on constraining the icehouse-greenhouse turnover across southcentral Gondwana (SCG) reporting new high-resolution U Pb zircon CA-ID-TIMS ages from immediate postglacial facies in the Kalahari and Karoo basins. We integrate these ages with published U Pb zircon CA-ID-TIMS ages ( n = 20) to build a stratigraphic framework for SCG, to investigate the duration and nature of the demise of the LPIA. We confirm the stepwise deglaciation of Gondwana over a ca. 20 Myr period, with deglaciation occurring first in the Paraná Basin at ca. 300 Ma and in the Karoo Basin by 282 Ma. Low-latitude marine carbonates deposited contemporaneously with the final demise of ice is characterized by a major shift towards isotopically depleted δ 13 C and δ 18 O values. We interpret the perturbations in stable isotopes records to be driven by either mantle outgassing or the release of methane and the addition of glacial melt water to the paleo-ocean during warming. The presented stratigraphic framework is built in intracratonic basins, far from any syn - tectonic affects, suggesting a largely climatic driver behind deglaciation events.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS1988

Geochemical and climatic effects of increased marine organic carbon burial at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary

Perhaps the most significant event in the Cretaceous record of the carbon isotope composition of carbonate 1,2 , other than the 1–2.5 ‰ negative shift in the carbon isotope composition of calcareous plankton at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary 3 , is the rapid global positive excursion of ∼ 2 ‰ ( 13 C enrichment) which took place between ∼ 91.5 Myr and 90.3 Myr (late Cenomanian to earliest Turonian (C/T boundary event)) 1,4,5 . This excursion has been attributed to a change in the isotope composition of the marine total dissolved carbon (TDC) reservoir resulting from an increase in rate of burial of 13 C-depleted organic carbon, which coincided with a major global rise in sea level 5 during the so-called C/T oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 6 . Here we present new data, from nine localities, which demonstrate that a positive excursion in the carbon isotope composition of organic carbon at or near the C/T boundary 7,8 is nearly synchronous with that for carbonate and is widespread throughout the Tethys and Atlantic basins (Fig. 1), as well as in more high-latitude epicontinental seas. The postulated increase in the rate of burial of organic carbon may have had a significant effect on CO 2 and O 2 concentrations in the oceans and atmosphere, and consequent effects on global climate and sedimentary facies.

Nature↗
USGS1997

The frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes and their influence on the structure of south Florida mangrove communities

Hurricanes are formidable forces that wreak havoc on society and nature alike. Mangrove ecosystems are especially vulnerable because they thrive in the intertidal zone of tropical regions where hurricanes originate and are most frequent. Because mangroves are found at the land-sea interface where hurricanes are often most intense, these coastal forests are subject to damage from both high wind and surge. Mangroves are also an important habitat for many colonial and migratory birds and other wildlife, along with being nursery grounds for our fisheries. The fate of mangrove habitat as influenced by hurricanes may be threatened in the future under a global warming environment that might yield more intense storms than have been previously observed. Simulation models of hurricane abiotics and mangrove community dynamics have been developed to evaluate the effects of hurricanes on mangrove habitat across the South Florida landscape. Model applications show that hurricane frequency and intensity have varied spatially across Florida’s lower peninsula over the last century of record. Hindcast simulations of actual hurricane tracks and conditions seem to account for the structural composition of modernday mangrove forests across South Florida. A recurrence interval of major storms every 30 years over the last century is the major factor controlling mangrove ecosystem dynamics in South Florida. Some climate change models predict an increase in hurricane intensity over the next century that may further alter the structure and composition of our mangrove ecosystems. Model results of climate change scenarios indicate that future mangrove forests are likely to be diminished in stature and perhaps include a higher proportion of red mangroves. This modeling approach offers the ability to assess decadal and longer time scale changes in hurricane behavior and its effects on community structure and distribution of important plant associations such as the fate of mangrove habitat.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Episodic soil succession on basaltic lava fields in a cool, dry environment

Holocene- to late Pleistocene-aged lava flows at Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve provide an ideal setting to examine the early stages of soil formation under cool, dry conditions. Transects were used to characterize the amount and nature of soil cover on across basaltic lava flows ranging in age from 2.1 to 18.4 ka. Results indicate that on flows <13 ka, very shallow organic soils (Folists in Soil Taxonomy) are the dominant soil type, providing an areal coverage of up to &sim;25%. On flows &ge;13.9 ka, deeper mineral soils including Entisols, Aridisols, and Mollisols become dominant and the areal extent increases to &ge;95% on flows older than 18.4 ka. These data suggest there are two distinct pedogenic pathways associated with lava flows of the region. The first pathway is illustrated by the younger flows, where Folists dominate. In the absence of a major source of loess, relatively little mineral material accumulates and soils provide only minor coverage of the lava flows. Our results indicate that this pathway of soil development has not changed appreciably over the past &sim;10 ka. The second pedogenic pathway is illustrated by the flows older than 13.9 ka. These flows have been subject to deposition of large quantities of loess during and after the last regional glaciation, resulting in almost complete coverage. Subsequent pedogenesis has given rise to Aridisols and Mollisols with calcic and cambic horizons and mollic epipedons. This research highlights the importance of regional climate change on the evolution of Craters of the Moon soilscapes.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report↗
USGS2006

Soil-atmospheric exchange of CO2, CH4, and N2O in three subtropical forest ecosystems in southern China

The magnitude, temporal, and spatial patterns of soil-atmospheric greenhouse gas (hereafter referred to as GHG) exchanges in forests near the Tropic of Cancer are still highly uncertain. To contribute towards an improvement of actual estimates, soil-atmospheric CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes were measured in three successional subtropical forests at the Dinghushan Nature Reserve (hereafter referred to as DNR) in southern China. Soils in DNR forests behaved as N2O sources and CH4 sinks. Annual mean CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes (mean ?? SD) were 7.7 ?? 4.6MgCO2-Cha-1 yr-1, 3.2 ?? 1.2 kg N2ONha-1 yr-1, and 3.4 ?? 0.9 kgCH4-Cha-1 yr-1, respectively. The climate was warm and wet from April through September 2003 (the hot-humid season) and became cool and dry from October 2003 through March 2004 (the cool-dry season). The seasonality of soil CO2 emission coincided with the seasonal climate pattern, with high CO2 emission rates in the hot-humid season and low rates in the cool-dry season. In contrast, seasonal patterns of CH4 and N2O fluxes were not clear, although higher CH4 uptake rates were often observed in the cool-dry season and higher N2O emission rates were often observed in the hot-humid season. GHG fluxes measured at these three sites showed a clear increasing trend with the progressive succession. If this trend is representative at the regional scale, CO2 and N2O emissions and CH4 uptake in southern China may increase in the future in light of the projected change in forest age structure. Removal of surface litter reduced soil CO2 effluxes by 17-44% in the three forests but had no significant effect on CH4 absorption and N2O emission rates. This suggests that microbial CH4 uptake and N2O production was mainly related to the mineral soil rather than in the surface litter layer. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Historic changes to floodplain systems in the Driftless Area

Floodplain systems in the Driftless Area have experienced widespread historical transformations in hydrologic and sediment characteristics as well as rates of hydrogeomorphic processes. These changes exceed natural variability experienced during the Holocene and are driven by nearly two centuries of major land-cover alterations coupled with shifting precipitation patterns. On the pre–Euro-American landscape, tributaries to the Upper Mississippi River had clear, constant base flow and low sedimentation rates due to a protective cover of prairie, oak savanna, and woodland. The Upper Mississippi River was sandy and braided, with geomorphologically diverse backwaters, side channels, and vegetated islands. Soil erosion and gullying caused by agriculture-related land clearance have had the largest historical effects on Upper Mississippi River tributary stream morphology and floodplain sedimentation. Floodplain sedimentation rates for tributaries and the Upper Mississippi River were 0.2 and 0.9 mm/yr, respectively, before Euro-American settlement, compared to 2–20 and 5–20 mm/yr after Euro-American settlement, respectively. The soil conservation movement had its birthplace in the Driftless Area in the 1920s because of the region’s widespread landscape degradation. As soil erosion decreased and gullies were stabilized in the middle to late twentieth century, land management efforts turned toward the lingering problem of fine-grained, phosphorus-rich sediment stored in tributary floodplains and channels. This trend has been complicated by a climatic shift in the late twentieth century toward increased annual precipitation, increased flood variability, and more floods in late fall and winter months, when bare fields are vulnerable to runoff. Floods are major contributors to channel erosion and deposition, and variability in magnitudes and frequency will likely continue in the early twenty-first century. Restoration efforts in tributaries have included reducing bank erosion, reconnecting floodplains, and adding trout habitat features. Lock and dam structures have altered sediment transport and erosion processes within the Upper Mississippi River, and restoration efforts there have focused on creation and rehabilitation of islands and protection of remnant off-channel backwater habitats.

Illinois, Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Conservation planning for offsetting the impacts of development: a case study of biodiversity and renewable energy in the Mojave Desert

Balancing society&rsquo;s competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species&rsquo; habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts.

California↗
USGS2009

Status Assessment of Laysan and Black-Footed Albatrosses, North Pacific Ocean, 1923-2005

Over the past century, Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (Phoebastria nigripes) albatrosses have been subjected to high rates of mortality and disturbance at the breeding colonies and at sea. Populations were greatly reduced and many colonies were extirpated around the turn of the 20th century as a result of feather hunting. Populations were recovering when military occupation of several breeding islands during World War II led to new population declines at these islands and additional colony extirpations. At sea, thousands of Laysan and black-footed albatrosses were killed each year in high-seas driftnet fisheries, especially from 1978 until the fisheries were banned in 1992. Through the 1990s, there was a growing awareness of the large numbers of albatrosses that were being killed in longline fisheries. During the 1990s, other anthropogenic factors, such as predation by non-native mammals and exposure to contaminants, also were documented to reduce productivity or increase mortality. In response to the growing concerns over the impacts of these threats on albatross populations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct an assessment of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations. This assessment includes a review of the taxonomy, legal status, geographic distribution, natural history, habitat requirements, threats, and monitoring and management activities for these two species. The second part of the assessment is an analysis of population status and trends from 1923 to 2005. Laysan and black-footed albatrosses forage throughout the North Pacific Ocean and nest on tropical and sub-tropical oceanic islands from Mexico to Japan. As of 2005, 21 islands support breeding colonies of one or both species. The core breeding range is the Hawaiian Islands, where greater than 99 percent of the World's Laysan albatrosses and greater than 95 percent of the black-footed albatrosses nest on the small islands and atolls of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. These islands are all protected as part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Albatrosses are long-lived seabirds with deferred maturity, low fecundity, and high rates of adult survival. Their life history characteristics make populations especially vulnerable, to small increases in adult mortality. The primary threats to Laysan and black-footed albatrosses include interactions with commercial fisheries, predation by introduced mammals, reduced reproductive output due to contaminants, nesting habitat loss and degradation due to human development and invasive plant species, and potential loss and degradation of habitat due to climate change and sea-level rise. Incidental mortality (bycatch) in commercial fisheries is the greatest anthropogenic source of mortality (post-fledging) for both species. We found that longline fishing effort prior to the 1980s was greater than previously estimated and a very significant source of mortality. Regulations to minimize and monitor albatross mortality have been enacted in most U.S. and Canadian longline fisheries, but monitoring of bycatch rates and regulations to minimize seabird mortality are extremely limited in the much larger multinational longline fleets. Management to address threats at the breeding colonies is ongoing and includes eradication or control of non-native species, habitat management, and abatement programs to reduce impacts of contaminants. Effective long-term conservation and management of the Laysan and black-footed albatrosses require management and monitoring at the breeding colonies and at sea and continued assessment of population status and trends. We evaluated the status and trends of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations using linear regression, population viability analysis (PVA), and age-structured matrix models. Analyses were predominantly based on nest-count data gathered at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midw

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Vegetation map for the Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex on the island of Hawai‘i

This vegetation map was produced to serve as an updated habitat base for management of natural resources of the Hakalau Forest Unit (HFU) of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Refuge) on the island of Hawai‘i. The map is based on a vegetation map originally produced as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey to depict the distribution, structure, and composition of plant communities on the island of Hawai‘i as they existed in 1977. The current map has been updated to represent current conditions of plant communities in the HFU, based on WorldView 2 imagery taken in 2012 and very-high-resolution imagery collected by Pictometry International from 2010 to 2014. Thirty-one detailed plant communities are identified on this map, and fourteen of these units are found within the boundaries of HFU. Additionally, the mapped units can be displayed as five tree canopy cover units, three moisture zones units, eight dominant tree species units, and four habitat status units by choosing the various fields to group the units from the map attribute table. This updated map will provide a foundation for the refinement and tracking of management actions on the Refuge for the near future, particularly as the habitats in this area are subject to projected climate change.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Recent climate change has driven divergent hydrological shifts in high-latitude peatlands

High-latitude peatlands are changing rapidly in response to climate change, including permafrost thaw. Here, we reconstruct hydrological conditions since the seventeenth century using testate amoeba data from 103 high-latitude peat archives. We show that 54% of the peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over this period, illustrating the complex ecohydrological dynamics of high latitude peatlands and their highly uncertain responses to a warming climate.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2024

Arsenic and other geogenic contaminants in global groundwater

Geogenic groundwater contaminants (GGCs) affect drinking-water availability and safety, with up to 60% of groundwater sources in some regions contaminated by more than recommended concentrations. As a result, an estimated 300–500 million people are at risk of severe health impacts and premature mortality. In this Review, we discuss the sources, occurrences and cycling of arsenic, fluoride, selenium and uranium, which are GGCs with widespread distribution and/or high toxicity. The global distribution of GGCs is controlled by basin geology and tectonics, with GGC enrichment in both orogenic systems and cratonic basement rocks. This regional distribution is broadly influenced by climate, geomorphology and hydrogeochemical evolution along groundwater flow paths. GGC distribution is locally heterogeneous and affected by in situ lithology, groundwater flow and water–rock interactions. Local biogeochemical cycling also determines GGC concentrations, as arsenic, selenium and uranium mobilizations are strongly redox-dependent. Increasing groundwater extraction and land-use changes are likely to modify GGC distribution and extent, potentially exacerbating human exposure to GGCs, but the net impact of these activities is unknown. Integration of science, policy, community involvement programmes and technological interventions is needed to manage GGC-enriched groundwater and ensure equitable access to clean water.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2006

Multiphase, multicomponent parameter estimation for liquid and vapor fluxes in deep arid systems using hydrologic data and natural environmental tracers

Multiphase, multicomponent numerical models of long-term unsaturated-zone liquid and vapor movement were created for a thick alluvial basin at the Nevada Test Site to predict present-day liquid and vapor fluxes. The numerical models are based on recently developed conceptual models of unsaturated-zone moisture movement in thick alluvium that explain present-day water potential and tracer profiles in terms of major climate and vegetation transitions that have occurred during the past 10 000 yr or more. The numerical models were calibrated using borehole hydrologic and environmental tracer data available from a low-level radioactive waste management site located in a former nuclear weapons testing area. The environmental tracer data used in the model calibration includes tracers that migrate in both the liquid and vapor phases (δD, δ 18 O) and tracers that migrate solely as dissolved solutes (Cl), thus enabling the estimation of some gas-phase as well as liquid-phase transport parameters. Parameter uncertainties and correlations identified during model calibration were used to generate parameter combinations for a set of Monte Carlo simulations to more fully characterize the uncertainty in liquid and vapor fluxes. The calculated background liquid and vapor fluxes decrease as the estimated time since the transition to the present-day arid climate increases. However, on the whole, the estimated fluxes display relatively little variability because correlations among parameters tend to create parameter sets for which changes in some parameters offset the effects of others in the set. Independent estimates on the timing since the climate transition established from packrat midden data were essential for constraining the model calibration results. The study demonstrates the utility of environmental tracer data in developing numerical models of liquid- and gas-phase moisture movement and the importance of considering parameter correlations when using Monte Carlo analysis to characterize the uncertainty in moisture fluxes.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2024

Effects of temporal hydrologic shifts on the population biology of an endangered freshwater fish in a dryland river ecosystem

Species occupying dryland river ecosystems often experience “boom-and-bust” demographic cycles that coincide with shifts in habitat availability. Knowing whether declines are within natural thresholds versus those caused by acute human disturbance is critical for managing protected species. We investigated temporal shifts in abundance and habitat use of an endangered population of the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus in southern California, where a Mediterranean climate leads to ephemeral habitat in one of the regions' least hydrologically modified rivers, the Santa Clara River. We conducted population surveys over a period of below-average rainfall in the upper watershed in Soledad Canyon, with predefined reaches surveyed multiple times per year to capture different hydrologic conditions. Abundances were stable across years but varied significantly depending on location, with some reaches remaining dry and others drying seasonally to varying degrees. Occupancy models showed that the presence of stable perennial reaches, drying regime, and other site-specific factors were important predictors of habitat use, and that certain reaches may be key to ensuring source-sink dynamics as flow dissipates over the dry season. Low occupancy in two sections was driven by different predominant mechanisms, one by diel cycles of evapotranspiration and the other by cattails ( Typha spp.), with both having greater effects during the hotter, drier parts of the year. As dryland river ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of anthropogenic-induced climate change, this study demonstrates how temporal monitoring can delimit dry-state benchmarks for improving management interventions (i.e., translocation and habitat restoration) for protected species under conditions that are predicted to worsen in the coming years.

California↗
USGS2002

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level 1 , which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake. Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Integrating physical and chemical characteristics of lakes into the glacially influenced landscape of the Northern Cascade Mountains, Washington State, USA

A basic knowledge of the physical and chemical characteristics of lakes is needed by management to make informed decisions to protect water resources. In this study we investigated some of the physical and chemical characteristics of 58 lakes in alpine, subalpine, and forest vegetation zones in a natural area (North Cascades National Park Service Complex) between 1989 and 1993. The objectives of the study were to: (1) document the time of ice-out relative to lake elevation; (2) determine how a sharp climate gradient west and east of the hydrologic divide affected the time of ice-out for subalpine lakes; and (3) assess how lake water quality was associated with lake elevation, lake depth, and basin geology. As expected, lake ice-out times occurred earlier with decreasing elevation. East-slope subalpine lakes iced-out earlier than did west-slope subalpine lakes because the east slope of the study area was drier and warmer than the west slope. On average, the lakes were relatively cold, neutral in pH, and low in dissolved substances and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus. Although some shallow lakes (depth ,10 m) exhibited the highest alkalinities, conductivities, and concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen, most shallow lakes exhibited low values for these variables that were comparable to values observed in deep lakes. Geology did not play a major role in segregating the lakes based on water quality. Overall, lake temperature, pH, alkalinity, conductivity, and concentrations of total phosphorus and total Kjeldahl N increased with decreasing elevation. These changes in water quality with decreasing elevation in this temperate mountainous region corresponded with warmer air temperatures and increased vegetation biomass, soil depth and maturity, and dissolved substances and nutrients.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2012

Elevated CO2 did not mitigate the effect of a short-term drought on biological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are critical components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems that contribute significantly to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fixation, water retention, soil stability, and seedling recruitment. While dry-land ecosystems face a number of environmental changes, our understanding of how biocrusts may respond to such perturbation remains notably poor. To determine the effect that elevated CO 2 may have on biocrust composition, cover, and function, we measured percent soil surface cover, effective quantum yield, and pigment concentrations of naturally occurring biocrusts growing in ambient and elevated CO 2 at the desert study site in Nevada, USA, from spring 2005 through spring 2007. During the experiment, a year-long drought allowed us to explore the interacting effects that elevated CO 2 and water availability may have on biocrust cover and function. We found that, regardless of CO 2 treatment, precipitation was the major regulator of biocrust cover. Drought reduced moss and lichen cover to near-zero in both ambient and elevated CO 2 plots, suggesting that elevated CO 2 did not alleviate water stress or increase C fixation to levels sufficient to mitigate drought-induced reduction in cover. In line with this result, lichen quantum yield and soil cyanobacteria pigment concentrations appeared more strongly dependent upon recent precipitation than CO 2 treatment, although we did find evidence that, when hydrated, elevated CO 2 increased lichen C fixation potential. Thus, an increase in atmospheric CO 2 may only benefit biocrusts if overall climate patterns shift to create a wetter soil environment.

Biology and Fertility of Soils↗