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At least 1,531 records · Page 85Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Transport and deposition of asbestos-rich sediment in the Sumas River, Whatcom County, Washington

Heavy sediment loads in the Sumas River of Whatcom County, Washington, increase seasonal turbidity and cause locally acute sedimentation. Most sediment in the Sumas River is derived from a deep-seated landslide of serpentinite that is located on Sumas Mountain and drained by Swift Creek, a tributary to the Sumas River. This mafic sediment contains high amounts of naturally occurring asbestiform chrysotile. A known human-health hazard, asbestiform chrysotile comprises 0.25–37 percent, by mass, of the total suspended sediment sampled from the Sumas River as part of this study, which included part of water year 2011 and all of water years 2012 and 2013. The suspended-sediment load in the Sumas River at South Pass Road, 0.6 kilometers (km) downstream of the confluence with Swift Creek, was 22,000 tonnes (t) in water year 2012 and 49,000 t in water year 2013. The suspended‑sediment load at Telegraph Road, 18.8 km downstream of the Swift Creek confluence, was 22,000 t in water year 2012 and 27,000 t in water year 2013. Although hydrologic conditions during the study were wetter than normal overall, the 2-year flood peak was only modestly exceeded in water years 2011 and 2013; runoff‑driven geomorphic disturbance to the watershed, which might have involved mass wasting from the landslide, seemed unexceptional. In water year 2012, flood peaks were modest, and the annual streamflow was normal. The fact that suspended-sediment loads in water year 2012 were equivalent at sites 0.6 and 18.8 km downstream of the sediment source indicates that the conservation of suspended‑sediment load can occur under normal hydrologic conditions. The substantial decrease in suspended-sediment load in the downstream direction in water year 2013 was attributed to either sedimentation in the intervening river reach, transfer to bedload as an alternate mode of sediment transport, or both. The sediment in the Sumas River is distinct from sediment in most other river systems because of the large percentage of asbestiform chrysotile in suspension. The suspended sediment carried by the Sumas River consists of three major components: (1) a relatively dense, largely non-flocculated material that settles rapidly out of suspension; (2) a lighter component containing relatively high proportions of flocculated material, much of it composed of asbestiform chrysotile; and (3) individual chrysotile fibers that are too small to flocculate or settle out, and remain in suspension as wash load (these fibers are on the order of microns in length and tenths of microns in diameter). Whereas the bulk density of the first (heaviest) component of suspended sediment was between 1.5 and 1.6 grams per cubic centimeter (g/cm3), the bulk density of the flocculated material was an order of magnitude lower (0.16 g/cm3), even after 24 hours of settling. Soon after immersion in water, the fresh chrysotile fibers derived from the Swift Creek landslide seem to flocculate readily into large bundles, or floccules, that exhibit settling velocities characteristic of coarse silts and fine sands (30 and 250 micrometers). In quiescent water within this river system, the floccules settle out quickly, but still leave between 2.4 and 19.5 million chrysotile fibers per liter in the clear overlying water. Consistent with the results from previous laboratory research, the amounts of asbestiform chrysotile in the water column in Swift Creek, as well as in the Sumas River close to and downstream of its confluence with Swift Creek, were determined to be directly correlated with pH. This observation offers a possible alternative to either turbidity or suspended‑sediment concentration as a surrogate for the concentration of fresh asbestiform chrysotile in suspension. Continued movement and associated erosion of the landslide through mass wasting and runoff will maintain large sediment loads in Swift Creek and in the Sumas River for the foreseeable future. Given the present channel morphology of the river system, aggradation (that is, sediment accumulation) in Swift Creek and the Sumas River are also likely to continue.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Mid-Holocene hydrologic model of the Shingobee watershed, Minnesota

A hydrologifc model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990-1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake. Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2019

Seasonal patterns in hydrochemical mixing in three Great Lakes rivermouth ecosystems

Rivermouth ecosystems in the Laurentian Great Lakes represent complex hydrologic mixing zones where lake and river water combine to form biologically productive areas that are functionally similar to marine estuaries. As urban, industrial, shipping, and recreational centers, rivermouths are the focus of human interactions with the Great Lakes and, likewise, may represent critical habitat for larval fish and other biota. The hydrology and related geomorphology in these deltaic systems form the basis for ecosystem processes and wetland habitat structure but are poorly understood. To this end, a multidisciplinary team of scientists examined hydrogeomorphic structure and lake-tributary mixing in rivermouths using water chemistry, stable isotopes, and current profiling over a five-month period. Results showed that the maximum depth of the rivermouth ecosystem influenced mixing, with temperature-related, density-dependent wedging and layering that isolated lake water below river water occurring in deeper systems. The inherent size of the rivermouth ecosystem, local geomorphology, and human modifications such as shoreline armoring and dredging influenced mixing by altering the propensity for density differences to occur. The improved scientific understanding and framework for characterizing hydrogeomorphic processes in Great Lakes rivermouths across a disturbance gradient is useful for conservation, management, restoration, and protection of critical habitats needed by native species.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Classifying the water table at regional to continental scales

Water tables at regional to continental scales can be classified into two distinct types: recharge-controlled water tables that are largely disconnected from topography and topography-controlled water tables that are closely tied to topography. We use geomatic synthesis of hydrologic, geologic and topographic data sets to quantify and map water-table type over the contiguous United States using a dimensionless criterion introduced by Haitjema and Mitchell-Bruker (2005), called the water-table ratio, which differentiates water-table type. Our analysis indicates that specific regions of the United States have broadly contiguous and characteristic water-table types. Water-table ratio relates to water-table depth and the potential for regional groundwater flow. In regions with recharge-controlled water tables, for example the Southwest or Rocky Mountains, USA, water-tables depths are generally greater and more variable and regional groundwater flow is generally more important as a percentage of the watershed budget. Water-table depths are generally shallow and less variable, and regional groundwater flow is limited in areas with topography-controlled water tables such as the Northeast USA. The water-table ratio is a simple but powerful criterion for evaluating regional groundwater systems over broad areas.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2007

Thermal Methods for Investigating Ground-Water Recharge

Recharge of aquifers within arid and semiarid environments is defined as the downward flux of water across the regional water table. The introduction of recharging water at the land surface can occur at discreet locations, such as in stream channels, or be distributed over the landscape, such as across broad interarroyo areas within an alluvial ground-water basin. The occurrence of recharge at discreet locations is referred to as focused recharge, whereas the occurrence of recharge over broad regions is referred to as diffuse recharge. The primary interest of this appendix is focused recharge, but regardless of the type of recharge, estimation of downward fluxes is essential to its quantification. Like chemical tracers, heat can come from natural sources or be intentionally introduced to infer transport properties and aquifer recharge. The admission and redistribution of heat from natural processes such as insolation, infiltration, and geothermal activity can be used to quantify subsurface flow regimes. Heat is well suited as a ground-water tracer because it provides a naturally present dynamic signal and is relatively harmless over a useful range of induced perturbations. Thermal methods have proven valuable for recharge investigations for several reasons. First, theoretical descriptions of coupled water-and-heat transport are available for the hydrologic processes most often encountered in practice. These include land-surface mechanisms such as radiant heating from the sun, radiant cooling into space, and evapotranspiration, in addition to the advective and conductive mechanisms that usually dominate at depth. Second, temperature is theoretically well defined and readily measured. Third, thermal methods for depths ranging from the land surface to depths of hundreds of meters are based on similar physical principles. Fourth, numerical codes for simulating heat and water transport have become increasingly reliable and widely available. Direct measurement of water flux in the subsurface is difficult, prompting investigators to pursue indirect methods. Geophysical approaches that exploit the coupled relation between heat and water transport provide an attractive class of methods that have become widely used in investigations of recharge. This appendix reviews the application of heat to the problem of recharge estimation. Its objective is to provide a fairly complete account of the theoretical underpinnings together with a comprehensive review of thermal methods in practice. Investigators began using subsurface temperatures to delineate recharge areas and infer directions of ground-water flow around the turn of the 20th century. During the 1960s, analytical and numerical solutions for simplified heat- and fluid-flow problems became available. These early solutions, though one-dimensional and otherwise restricted, provided a strong impetus for applying thermal methods to problems of liquid and vapor movement in systems ranging from soils to geothermal reservoirs. Today?s combination of fast processors, massive data-storage units, and efficient matrix techniques provide numerical solutions to complex, three-dimensional transport problems. These approaches allow researchers to take advantage of the considerable information content routinely achievable in high-accuracy temperature work.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2018

Fire, flood, and drought: Extreme climate events alter flow paths and stream chemistry

Extreme climate events—such as hurricanes, droughts, extreme precipitation, and wildfires—have the potential to alter watershed processes and stream response. Yet due to the destructive and hazardous nature and unpredictability of such events, capturing their hydrochemical signal is challenging. A 5‐year postwildfire study of stream chemistry in the Fourmile Creek watershed, Colorado Front Range, USA, focused on high‐frequency storm sampling. During the study, the watershed was impacted by three additional extreme climate events—drought and two periods of extreme rainfall totals. These events altered concentration‐discharge relationships in ways that elucidate how hydrologic flow paths and source material availability affect stream water chemistry. Reduced infiltration after wildfire led to overland flow during thunderstorms, which conveyed ash and soil into streams. This resulted in elevated stream concentrations of constituents elevated in ash—Ca, K, Mg, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon—along with sediment and nitrate. Subsurface flow paths were bypassed, leading to low concentrations of Na and SiO 2 , which are bedrock derived and not elevated in ash. During drought conditions, when stream discharge was <20% of average, concentrations of sediment, dissolved organic carbon, and Ca fell below average concentrations, but SiO 2 did not. Extreme rainfall totals saturated the subsurface and led to prolonged elevated stream discharge. Concentration‐discharge relationships for bedrock‐derived constituents, such as Ca and SiO 2 , were altered in that time period, while those for dissolved organic carbon were not. Previous disturbances, including historical mining, also affect stream chemistry, and water‐quality impairment can be exacerbated by extreme climate events.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Assessing environmental change associated with early Eocene hyperthermals in the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Eocene transient global warming events (hyperthermals) can provide insight into a future warmer world. While much research has focused on the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), hyperthermals of a smaller magnitude can be used to characterize climatic responses over different magnitudes of forcing. This study identifies two events, namely the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and H2), in shallow marine sediments of the Eocene-aged Salisbury Embayment of Maryland, based on magnetostratigraphy, calcareous nannofossil, and dinocyst biostratigraphy, as well as the recognition of negative stable carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in biogenic calcite. We assess local environmental change in the Salisbury Embayment, utilizing clay mineralogy, marine palynology, δ 18 O of biogenic calcite, and biomarker paleothermometry (TEX 86 ). Paleotemperature proxies show broad agreement between surface water and bottom water temperature changes. However, the timing of the warming does not correspond to the CIE of the ETM2 as expected from other records, and the highest values are observed during H2, suggesting factors in addition to p CO 2 forcing have influenced temperature changes in the region. The ETM2 interval exhibits a shift in clay mineralogy from smectite-dominated facies to illite-rich facies, suggesting hydroclimatic changes but with a rather dampened weathering response relative to that of the PETM in the same region. Organic walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages show large fluctuations throughout the studied section, none of which seem systematically related to CIE warming. These observations are contrary to the typical tight correspondence between climate change and assemblages across the PETM, regionally and globally, and ETM2 in the Arctic Ocean. The data do indicate very warm and (seasonally) stratified conditions, likely salinity-driven, across H2. The absence of evidence for strong perturbations in local hydrology and nutrient supply during ETM2 and H2, compared to the PETM, is consistent with the less extreme forcing and the warmer pre-event baseline, as well as the non-linear response in hydroclimates to greenhouse forcing.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic response of streams restored with check dams in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona

In this study, hydrological processes are evaluated to determine impacts of stream restoration in the West Turkey Creek, Chiricahua Mountains, southeast Arizona, during a summer-monsoon season (June–October of 2013). A paired-watershed approach was used to analyze the effectiveness of check dams to mitigate high flows and impact long-term maintenance of hydrologic function. One watershed had been extensively altered by the installation of numerous small check dams over the past 30 years, and the other was untreated (control). We modified and installed a new stream-gauging mechanism developed for remote areas, to compare the water balance and calculate rainfall–runoff ratios. Results show that even 30 years after installation, most of the check dams were still functional. The watershed treated with check dams has a lower runoff response to precipitation compared with the untreated, most notably in measurements of peak flow. Concerns that downstream flows would be reduced in the treated watershed, due to storage of water behind upstream check dams, were not realized; instead, flow volumes were actually higher overall in the treated stream, even though peak flows were dampened. We surmise that check dams are a useful management tool for reducing flow velocities associated with erosion and degradation and posit they can increase baseflow in aridlands.

Arizona↗

USGS2007

Submarine ground water discharge and fate along the coast of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Hawaii Part I: Time-series measurements of currents, waves, salinity and temperature: November 2005 – July 2006

The impending development for the west Hawai‘i coastline adjacent to Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park (KAHO) may potentially alter coastal hydrology and water quality in the marine waters of the park. Water resources are perhaps the most significant natural and cultural resource component in the park, and are critical to the health and well being of six federally listed species. KAHO contains ecosystems of brackish anchialine pools, two 11-acre fishponds, and 596 acres of coral reef habitats, all fed by groundwater originating upslope. The steep gradients on high islands, combined with typically porous substrates and high rainfall levels at upper elevations, make these settings especially vulnerable to shifts in submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and its entrained nutrients and pollutants. Little is known about the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD and its influence on contaminant loading to Hawaiian coastal environments. Recent studies show that groundwater flux through the park is vital to many ecosystem components including anchialine ponds and wetland biota. The function of these ecosystems may be vulnerable to changes in groundwater flow stemming from natural changes (climate and sea level) and land use (groundwater pumping and contamination). Oki and others (1999) showed that increased groundwater withdrawals for urban development since 1978 likely decreased groundwater flux to the coast by 50%. During this same time, the quality of groundwater has been vulnerable to increases in contaminant and nutrient/fertilizer additions associated with industrial, commercial and residential use upslope from KAHO (Oki and others, 1999). High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature and salinity were collected in the marine portion of the park from November, 2005, through July, 2006, to establish baseline information on the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD. These data are intended to help researchers and resource managers better understand the hydrodynamics of the oceanographic environment in the park’s coastal waters as it pertains to the pathway of SGD and associated nutrient and contaminant input to the park’s coral reef ecosystem. Measurements were made of the oceanographic environment (waves, tides, currents, salinity and temperature) using hydrodynamic techniques to characterize and quantify the distribution, input and throughput of freshwater and associated nutrient/contaminant within the near shore environment of KAHO through the emplacement of a series of bottom-mounted instruments deployed in water depths less than 15 m. This study was conducted in support of the National Park Service (NPS) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Coral Reef Project. These measurements support the ongoing studies of the Coral Reef Project to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, nutrients, pollutants and other particles on Pacific coral reefs. Subsequent reports will address the spatial and temporal variability in groundwater input and the associated nutrient flux in the park’s waters.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2003

Application of artificial neural networks to complex groundwater management problems

As water quantity and quality problems become increasingly severe, accurate prediction and effective management of scarcer water resources will become critical. In this paper, the successful application of artificial neural network (ANN) technology is described for three types of groundwater prediction and management problems. In the first example, an ANN was trained with simulation data from a physically based numerical model to predict head (groundwater elevation) at locations of interest under variable pumping and climate conditions. The ANN achieved a high degree of predictive accuracy, and its derived state-transition equations were embedded into a multiobjective optimization formulation and solved to generate a trade-off curve depicting water supply in relation to contamination risk. In the second and third examples, ANNs were developed with real-world hydrologic and climate data for different hydrogeologic environments. For the second problem, an ANN was developed using data collected for a 5-year, 8-month period to predict heads in a multilayered surficial and limestone aquifer system under variable pumping, state, and climate conditions. Using weekly stress periods, the ANN substantially outperformed a well-calibrated numerical flow model for the 71-day validation period, and provided insights into the effects of climate and pumping on water levels. For the third problem, an ANN was developed with data collected automatically over a 6-week period to predict hourly heads in 11 high-capacity public supply wells tapping a semiconfined bedrock aquifer and subject to large well-interference effects. Using hourly stress periods, the ANN accurately predicted heads for 24-hour periods in all public supply wells. These test cases demonstrate that the ANN technology can solve a variety of complex groundwater management problems and overcome many of the problems and limitations associated with traditional physically based flow models.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2021

Oxygen isotopes in terrestrial gastropod shells track Quaternary climate change in the American Southwest

Recent studies have shown the oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of modern terrestrial gastropod shells is determined largely by the δ 18 O of precipitation. This implies that fossil shells could be used to reconstruct the δ 18 O of paleo-precipitation as long as the isotopic system, including the hydrologic pathways of the local watershed and the gastropod systematics, is well understood. In this study, we measured the δ 18 O values of 456 individual gastropod shells collected from paleowetland deposits in the San Pedro Valley, Arizona that range in age from ca. 29.1 to 9.8 ka. Isotopic differences of up to 2‰ were identified among the four taxa analyzed (Succineidae, Pupilla hebes , Gastrocopta tappaniana , and Vallonia gracilicosta ), with Succineidae shells yielding the highest values and V . gracilicosta shells exhibiting the lowest values. We used these data to construct a composite isotopic record that incorporates these taxonomic offsets, and found shell δ 18 O values increased by ~4‰ between the last glacial maximum and early Holocene, which is similar to the magnitude, direction, and rate of isotopic change recorded by speleothems in the region. These results suggest the terrestrial gastropods analyzed here may be used as a proxy for past climate in a manner that is complementary to speleothems, but potentially with much greater spatial coverage.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2008

Preliminary analysis of the hydrologic and geochemical controls on acid‐neutralizing capacity in two acidic seepage lakes in Florida

In late 1988, parallel studies of Lake Five‐O ( p H 5.14) in the Florida panhandle and Lake Barco ( p H 4.50) in north central Florida were initiated to develop hydrologic and major ion budgets of these lakes as part of an overall effort to improve understanding of the hydrologic, depositional, and biogeochemical factors that control acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) in seepage lakes. Preliminary findings from these studies indicate that earlier perceptions of lake hydrology and mechanisms of ANC regulation in Florida seepage lakes may have to be revised. The traditional perspective of seepage lakes in the Florida panhandle views these systems as dominated by precipitation inputs and that ANC regulation is due largely to in‐lake processes. Our results for Lake Five‐O show modest to steep hydraulic gradients almost entirely around the lake. In addition, the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the surficial aquifer is high (8–74 m day −1 ), indicating that large quantities of groundwater flow into Lake Five‐O. Calculations of net groundwater flow from hydrologic budgets also indicate that groundwater may comprise at least 38 to 46% of the total inflow. For Lake Barco, net flow estimates of the minimum groundwater inflow range from 5 to 14% of total inflow. Enrichment factor and ion flux calculations for Lake Five‐O and Lake Barco indicate that terrestrial as well as in‐lake processes contribute significantly to ANC regulation. The extent that terrestrial processes contribute to ANC generation is directly related to the magnitude of groundwater inflow as well as the degree of ion enrichment or depletion that occurs in the surficial aquifer. Net ANC generation in both study lakes was dominated by anion retention (NO 3 − and SO 4 2− ). Where previous studies concluded that in‐lake reduction was the primary sink for SO 4 2− , our preliminary calculations show that adsorption of SO 4 2− within the watershed is perhaps twice as important as in‐lake reduction as a source of ANC. Net base cation enrichment in both lakes was negligible.

Florida↗

USGS1999

Tracer and hydrometric study of preferential flow in large undisturbed soil cores from the Georgia Piedmont, USA

We studied the temporal patterns of tracer throughput in the outflow of large (30 cm diameter by 38 cm long) undisturbed cores from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia. Tracer breakthrough was affected by soil structure and rainfall intensity. Two rainfall intensities (20 and 40 mm hr -1 ) for separate Cl - and Br - amended solutions were applied to two cores (one extracted from a hillslope soil and one extracted from a residual clay soil on the ridge). For both low and high rainfall intensity experiments, preferential flow occurred in the clay core, but not in the hillslope core. The preferential flow is attributed to well-developed interpedal macrochannels that are commonly found in structured clay soils, characteristic of the ridge site. However, each rainfall intensity exceeded the matrix infiltration capacity at the top of the hillslope core, but did not exceed the matrix infiltration capacity at the middle and bottom of the hillslope core and at all levels in the clay core. Localized zones of saturation created when rainfall intensity exceeds the matrix infiltration capacity may cause water and tracer to overflow from the matrix into macrochannels, where preferential flow occurs to depth in otherwise unsaturated soil. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2003

Predicting coastal retreat in the Florida Big Bend region of the Gulf Coast under climate change induced sea-level rise

Many wildlife preserves and refuges in coastal areas of our nation are slowly being inundated by rising sea-level. Land elevation and tidal flooding are key factors controlling the extent and zonation of coastal habitats. Warming of our global environment threatens to speed the rate of sea-level rise and perhaps further amplify the detrimental effects of tropical storms, droughts, and lightning fires. A field and modeling study was conducted to determine the current status of emergent vegetation and surficial hydrology and to predict marsh transgression under rising sea-level. Field surveys were conducted to relate vegetation cover and ecotones to surface elevation and tidal inundation. A regional site application of a GIS-based simulation model, WETLANDS, was developed to predict ecosystem response to changing sea-level conditions on a coastal reach of the Big Bend region in northwest Florida. The WETLANDS model contains functional probabilities of community tolerance to flooding conditions that dictate the rate and process of ecological succession and coastal retreat. Map information of hypsography and bathymetry of the study area were digitized and interpolated to construct a digital elevation model. Classified thematic mapper imagery of aquatic and terrestrial habitat at a community level was used to initialize model simulation by vegetative type. Model simulations were generated to predict a likelihood index of habitat change and conversion under different scenarios of sea-level rise. The WETLANDS model was applied to track the process and pattern of coastal inundation over space and time for low, mid, and high sea-level rise projections of 15, 50, and 95 cm over the next century. Model results indicated that major portions of this coastal zone will be permanently inundated by 2100, bringing about a combined migration of marsh habitat and displacement of forest habitat. Results show that lowland pine forests will undergo retreat on the order of thousands of hectares over the 21st century. Coastal marsh extent may actually increase slightly as a function of the low lying topography. Socioeconomic implications may be nominal for this area given its remote and fairly undeveloped and protected coast-202 line. The model offers a technological tool for research and policy purposes that allows for effective land and water management, risk assessment, and cumulative impact analysis of wetland systems and landscapes.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km 2 ) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Hydrologic and geomorphic changes resulting from episodic glacial lake outburst floods: Rio Colonia, Patagonia, Chile

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent but poorly understood cryospheric hazard in a warming climate. We quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic response to 21 episodic GLOFs that began in April 2008 using multitemporal satellite imagery and field observations. Peak discharge exiting the source lake became progressively muted downstream. At ~40–60 km downstream, where the floods entered and traveled down the main stem Rio Baker, peak discharges were generally < 2000 m 3 s −1 , although these flows were still >1–2 times the peak annual discharge of this system, Chile's largest river by volume. As such, caution must be applied to empirical relationships relating lake volume to peak discharge, as the latter is dependent on where this observation is made along the flood path. The GLOFs and subsequent periods of free drainage resulted in > 40 m of incision, the net removal of ~25 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment from the source lake basin, and a nonsteady channel configuration downstream. These results demonstrate that GLOFs sourced from low‐order tributaries can produce significant floods on major main stem rivers, in addition to significantly altering sediment dynamics.

Cachet‐Colonia‐Baker Valley, Patagonia, Rio Coloni↗