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USGS2019

Reproductive failure in the Eastern Migratory Population: The interaction of research and management

The reintroduction of the Eastern Migratory Population of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) has shown the most promise of any effort to date toward the establishment of a self-sustaining population. However, reproduction – including both nest success and chick survival – has been a major challenge. Here, we review the research and management efforts deployed to identify and address this challenge. While there is evidence that a proximal cause of nest failure is harassment by blood-feeding black flies ( Simulium spp. ), this is not likely to be the only contributing factor, and we present alternative hypotheses. There is less understanding of the causes of poor chick survival, and we present hypotheses for factors that may be contributing to chick mortality, including environmental, genetic, and behavioral factors. For both nest success and chick survival, we carried out a value of information analysis, using expert judgment, which allowed us to prioritize the alternative hypotheses for evaluation based on the expected management benefit of addressing each hypothesis. On the horizon are multiple opportunities to explore hypotheses about environmental factors as well as genetic and behavioral characteristics of the birds themselves that may contribute to poor reproduction. If bird-specific characteristics, such as genetics or rearing methods, are hindering reproduction, this has important implications for all efforts to restore Whooping Crane populations.

Book chapter↗

USGS1997

Exposure of Spectacled Eiders and other diving ducks to lead in western Alaska

Lead poisoning, resulting from ingestion of spent shot, has been identified as a cause of mortality in Spectacled Eiders ( Somateria fischeri ) on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. We examined lead-exposure rates of adult and juvenile Spectacled Eiders and other diving ducks, using atomic absorption spectrophotometry of blood samples. Additionally, we X-rayed birds in the field to identify ingested shot. We detected shot in the gizzards of 11.6% of Spectacled Eiders X-rayed. During the period from arrival through incubation, 13.0% of adult females and 6.6% of adult males had elevated blood lead levels when captured. During the brood-rearing period, 35.8% of adult females and 12.2% of ducklings were exposed to lead when captured. There was an increase in the probability of exposure of adult females with date sampled. We predict that 50% of the successfully breeding hens were likely exposed to lead, and 25–37% of the Spectacled Eider breeding population was exposed to lead. The long-term effects of sublethal doses on Spectacled Eiders are unknown; however, exposure of nesting females and young birds to lead may result in reduced over-winter survival and (or) reduced fecundity.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Demography and site fidelity of a grassland bird, the Henslow’s Sparrow, in powerline right-of-way habitat

Grassland birds are among the fastest declining avian species in North America, primarily due to habitat loss. In the southeastern U.S., much grassland and open savanna habitat has been converted to timber production or agriculture, neither of which typically provides habitat for breeding or wintering grassland birds. Powerline right-of-ways could provide suitable habitat for many grassland species as these areas are maintained to be treeless. We studied the population dynamics of Henslow’s Sparrows ( Centronyx henslowii ) wintering in powerline right-of-ways in southeastern Georgia through an 11-year mark-recapture study. We used a robust design Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate probability of detection and apparent survival. Abundance varied substantially among years at each site, with density varying from 1.7 to 8.5 birds/ha. Within-year detection probability was moderately high at 28% (24-33%, 95% credible interval [CI]), but apparent survival was very low at 13% (9-17%, 95% CI). This low apparent survival was likely due to low return rates (and not necessarily low survival). However, birds that did return to the study sites had extremely high site fidelity, with 82% of across-year recaptures < 200 m apart. This apparent incongruity between low apparent survival rates (likely due to emigration from the study sites) and high site fidelity for returning individuals could be explained by the dependability of the right-of-way habitat, which differs from typically patchy and temporally variable grassland and savanna wintering habitats. Dependable habitat may allow for higher site fidelity than this species would otherwise have, potentially resulting in the high densities we observed. Thousands of miles of right-of-ways in Georgia, and other southeastern states, could be managed to maximize potential habitat for declining grassland bird species.

Georgia↗

USGS1989

Diurnal and seasonal patterns of colony attendance in the Northern Fulmar, Fulmarus glacialis

The annual cycle of Northern Fulmars ( Fulmarus glacialis ) in the western Gulf of Alaska includes about six months from mid-April to mid-October when birds are associated with land at the Semidi Islands. The pre-laying stage in five years was marked by recurrent peaks in attendance that included up to 90% of the population, and alternate periods of 2 to 12 days when the breeding ground was deserted. Serial correlation of daily attendance indicated a cyclic pattern with a half-period of five to seven days. Maximum attendance at breeding sites usually occurred in the evening after a gradual increase in numbers during the day. Percentage of attendance by nonbreeding and failed birds varied widely with breeding success, but the seasonal occurrence of nonbreeders followed a consistent pattern: attendance by siteholding nonbreeders peaked before egg-laying, then steadily declined, whereas an influx of nonbreeding floaters occurred in July and August. Different wind directions and speeds influenced the number of birds at the colony for up to three days after they occurred, but it was not possible to explain the birds' behaviour during the pre-laying period in terms of simple linear relationships between attendance and weather. Rather, synchronized attendance appeared to be a social phenomenon mediated by environmental cues such as a change in wind direction.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Population genetics of Gunnison sage-grouse: Implications for management

The newly described Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ) is a species of concern for management because of marked declines in distribution and abundance due to the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. This has caused remaining populations to be unusually small and isolated. We utilized mitochondrial DNA sequence data and data from 8 nuclear microsatellites to assess the extent of population subdivision among Gunnison sage-grouse populations in southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah, USA. We found a high degree of population structure and low amounts of gene flow among all pairs of populations except the geographically adjacent Gunnison and Curecanti populations. Population structure for Gunnison sage-grouse was significantly higher than has been reported for greater sage-grouse ( C. urophasianus ). Further, we documented low levels of genetic diversity in some populations (particularly Dove Creek/Monticello and Piñon Mesa with an average of only 3.00 and 2.13 alleles per locus respectively) indicating that translocations from larger, more genetically diverse populations may be warranted. Bayesian analysis identified 3 potential migrants (involving San Miguel, Dove Creek/Monticello, Crawford, and Curecanti). Further, this analysis showed that 4 individuals from Cerro/Cimarron were more closely related to birds from San Miguel than to its geographically closer neighbors Gunnison and Curecanti. This suggests the Cerro/Cimarron area may act as a stepping stone for gene flow between San Miguel and Gunnison and that habitat restoration and protection in areas between these 2 basins should be a priority in an attempt to facilitate natural movement among these populations. Conservation plans should include monitoring and maintaining genetic diversity, preventing future habitat loss and fragmentation, enhancing existing habitat, and restoring converted sagebrush communities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2007

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture-recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997-2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross' survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications . The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2024

High inter-population connectivity and occasional gene flow between subspecies improves recovery potential for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo

Increasingly, genomic data are being used to supplement field-based ecological studies to help evaluate recovery status and trends in endangered species. We collected genomic data to address two related questions regarding the Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii ), an endangered migratory songbird restricted to southern California riparian habitat for breeding. First, we sought to delineate the range limits and potential overlap between Least Bell’s Vireo and its sister subspecies, the Arizona Bell’s Vireo, by analyzing samples from the deserts of eastern California, southwestern Nevada, Utah and Arizona. Second, we evaluated genetic structure among Least Bell’s Vireo populations in coastal California and estimated effective population size. Clustering analyses based on 10,571 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 317 samples supported two major groups that aligned closely to the previously defined subspecies ranges. The first cluster included birds in the Central Valley, all coastal drainages, and westernmost deserts of California, with no further sub-structuring among coastal drainages. Almost all birds from the Amargosa River in eastern California and eastward assigned to the second cluster; however, low levels of gene flow were detected across the subspecies groups, with greater rates of gene flow from Arizona Bell’s Vireo to Least Bell’s Vireo than the reverse. Admixed individuals occurred in the California deserts; and although smaller than coastal populations, desert populations may be important for maintaining and replenishing genetic diversity and facilitating the movement of potentially adaptive genes between subspecies. Within Least Bell’s Vireo, local populations in coastal drainages comprised a single genetic population, with some evidence of close relatives distributed across drainages, suggesting these could function as a well-connected metapopulation. These results are consistent with previous Least Bell’s Vireo banding studies that reported high rates of dispersal among drainages. Effective population size for both subspecies was high, suggesting that adaptive potential has been maintained despite previous declines.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2011

DS-Software for analyzing data collected using double sampling

DS analyzes count data to estimate density or relative density and population size when appropriate. The software is no longer available. The software was designed to analyze data collected using double sampling, but it also can be used to analyze index data. DS is not currently configured to apply distance methods or methods based on capture-recapture theory. Double sampling for the purpose of this report means surveying a sample of locations with a rapid method of unknown accuracy and surveying a subset of these locations using a more intensive method assumed to yield unbiased estimates. "Detection ratios" are calculated as the ratio of results from rapid surveys on intensive plots to the number actually present as determined from the intensive surveys. The detection ratios are used to adjust results from the rapid surveys. The formula for density is (results from rapid survey)/(estimated detection ratio from intensive surveys). Population sizes are estimated as (density)(area). Double sampling is well-established in the survey sampling literature—see Cochran (1977) for the basic theory, Smith (1995) for applications of double sampling in waterfowl surveys, Bart and Earnst (2002, 2005) for discussions of its use in wildlife studies, and Bart and others (in press) for a detailed account of how the method was used to survey shorebirds across the arctic region of North America. Indices are surveys that do not involve complete counts of well-defined plots or recording information to estimate detection rates (Thompson and others, 1998). In most cases, such data should not be used to estimate density or population size but, under some circumstances, may be used to compare two densities or estimate how density changes through time or across space (Williams and others, 2005). The Breeding Bird Survey (Sauer and others, 2008) provides a good example of an index survey. Surveyors record all birds detected but do not record any information, such as distance or whether each bird is recorded in subperiods, that could be used to estimate detection rates. Nonetheless, the data are widely used to estimate temporal trends and spatial patterns in abundance (Sauer and others, 2008). DS produces estimates of density (or relative density for indices) by species and stratum. Strata are usually defined using region and habitat but other variables may be used, and the entire study area may be classified as a single stratum. Population size in each stratum and for the entire study area also is estimated for each species. For indices, the estimated totals generally are only useful if (a) plots are surveyed so that densities can be calculated and extrapolated to the entire study area and (b) if the detection rates are close to 1.0. All estimates are accompanied by standard errors (SE) and coefficients of variation (CV, that is, SE/estimate).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Mapping risk of avian influenza transmission at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

USGS2018

Avian keratin disorder of Alaska black-capped chickadees is associated with Poecivirus infection

Background Avian keratin disorder (AKD) is an epizootic of debilitating beak deformities, first documented in black-capped chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ) in Alaska during the late 1990s. Similar deformities have now been recorded in dozens of species of birds across multiple continents. Despite this, the etiology of AKD has remained elusive, making it difficult to assess the impacts of this disease on wild populations. We previously identified an association between infection with a novel picornavirus, Poecivirus, and AKD in a small cohort of black-capped chickadees. Methods To test if the association between Poecivirus and AKD holds in a larger study population, we used targeted PCR followed by Sanger sequencing to screen 124 symptomatic and asymptomatic black-capped chickadees for Poecivirus infection. We further compared the efficacy of multiple non-terminal field sampling methods (buccal swabs, cloacal swabs, fecal samples, and blood samples) for Poecivirus screening. Finally, we used both in situ hybridization and a strand-specific expression assay to localize Poecivirus to beak tissue of AKD-positive individuals and to determine if virus is actively replicating in beak tissue. Results Poecivirus was detected in 28/28 (100%) individuals with AKD, but only 9/96 (9.4%) asymptomatic individuals with apparently normal beaks (p < 0.0001). We found that cloacal swabs are the most sensitive of these sample types for detecting Poecivirus in birds with AKD, but that buccal swabs should be combined with cloacal swabs in evaluating the infection status of asymptomatic birds. Finally, we used both in situ hybridization and a strand-specific expression assay to localize Poecivirus to beak tissue of AKD-positive individuals and to provide evidence of active viral replication. Conclusion The data presented here show a strong, statistically significant relationship between Poecivirus infection and AKD, and provide evidence that Poecivirus is indeed an avian virus, infecting and actively replicating in beak tissue of AKD-affected BCCH. Taken together, these data corroborate and extend the evidence for a potential causal association between Poecivirus and AKD in the black-capped chickadee. Poecivirus continues to warrant further investigation as a candidate agent of AKD.

Alaska↗

USGS1995

A complex alloantigen system in Florida sandhill cranes, Grus canadensis pratensis: Evidence for the major histocompatibility (B) system

The B blood group system constitutes the major histocompatibility complex ( Mhc ) in birds. The Mhc is a cluster of genes largely devoted to the processing and presentation of antigen. The Mhc is highly polymorphic in many species and, thus, useful in the evaluation of genetic diversity for fitness traits within populations of a variety of animals. Correlations found between particular Mhc haplotypes and resistance to certain diseases emphasize the importance of understanding the functional significance of diversity of the Mhc , particularly in species threatened with extinction. As part of studies focused on genetic diversity in wild birds, serological techniques were used to define a highly polymorphic alloantigen system in seven families of Florida sandhill cranes ( Grus canadensis pratensis ). The results of analyses with antisera produced within the crane families and with chicken Mhc antigen-specific reagents revealed a single major alloantigen system that is likely the Mhc of the Florida sandhill crane. Preliminary experiments indicate that these crane alloantisera will provide a means of defining the Mhc in other species of cranes.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS1996

Environmental hazards of aluminum to plants, invertebrates, fish, and wildlife

Aluminum (Al) is the third most common mineral and the most common metal in Earth’s crust, accounting for approximately 8.1% of the crust by weight. Thus, it cannot be considered a contaminant in the usual sense of the word. However, despite its near omnipresence throughout the world, Al has been of major concern as a primary limiting factor to cultivated plants for several decades. In much of the world, Al severely restricts the growth and presence of plant species. Since the late 1970s, concern about Al toxicity has spread to natural habitats, most notably forests and aquatic communities. The primary impetus for this concern has been the increased awareness of the effects of anthropogenic acidification through mine drainage, acid deposition, and other sources. The toxicity of Al is intimately associated with pH in that the metal is soluble and biologically available in acidic (pH <5.5) soils and waters but relatively innocuous in circumneutral (pH 5.5-7.5) conditions. Forest die-offs and reduced survivorship or impaired reproduction of aquatic invertebrates, fish, and amphibians have been directly connected to Al toxicity. Indirect effects on birds and mammals also have been identified. The purpose of this review is to summarize the toxic effects of Al to populations and to evaluate the potential hazards to the communities in which these populations are found.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Summer spatial patterning of chukars in relation to free water in Western Utah

Free water is considered important to wildlife in arid regions. In the western United States, thousands of water developments have been built to benefit wildlife in arid landscapes. Agencies and researchers have yet to clearly demonstrate their effectiveness. We combined a spatial analysis of summer chukar (Alectoris chukar) covey locations with dietary composition analysis in western Utah. Our specific objectives were to determine if chukars showed a spatial pattern that suggested association with free water in four study areas and to document summer dietary moisture content in relation to average distance from water. The observed data for the Cedar Mountains study area fell within the middle of the random mean distance to water distribution suggesting no association with free water. The observed mean distance to water for the other three areas was much closer than expected compared to a random spatial process, suggesting the importance of free water to these populations. Dietary moisture content of chukar food items from the Cedar Mountains (59%) was significantly greater (P < 0.05) than that of birds from Box Elder (44%) and Keg-Dugway (44%). Water developments on the Cedar Mountains are likely ineffective for chukars. Spatial patterns on the other areas, however, suggest association with free water and our results demonstrate the need for site-specific considerations. Researchers should be aware of the potential to satisfy water demand with pre-formed and metabolic water for a variety of species in studies that address the effects of wildlife water developments. We encourage incorporation of spatial structure in model error components in future ecological research. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS1979

Relation of environmental factors to breeding status of royal and sandwich terns in South Carolina, USA

The population ecology of the royal tern Sterna maxima and sandwich tern Sterna sandvicensis was investigated in South Carolina from 1970 through 1977. Royal and sandwich terns nested together in all of the colonies that we located. The peak in egg laying usually occurred in early May; peak hatching occurred from late May to mid-June. Clutch size for both species was one egg. Tidal flooding was the major factor in egg loss. The breeding population was 15,499 pairs in 1974 and 18,096 pairs in 1975; sandvicensis made up about 5% of the breeding population. The average number of young fledged per nest ranged from 0·36 to 0·44. Residues of organochlorine pollutants in most eggs and tissues were low and posed no identifiable threat to the terns. There was a decline in DDE and dieldrin residues in eggs of maxima . The future of royal and sandwich terns in South Carolina seems fairly secure as the population is apparently at or near carrying capacity and most of the major nesting sites are dedicated to protection of nesting birds.

South Carolina↗

USGS2015

Avoidance of unconventional oil wells and roads exacerbates habitat loss for grassland birds in the North American great plains

Oil development in the Bakken shale region has increased rapidly as a result of new technologies and strong demand for fossil fuel. This region also supports a particularly high density and diversity of grassland bird species, which are declining across North America. We examined grassland bird response to unconventional oil extraction sites (i.e. developed with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques) and associated roads in North Dakota. Our goal was to quantify the amount of habitat that was indirectly degraded by oil development, as evidenced by patterns of avoidance by birds. Grassland birds avoided areas within 150 m of roads (95% CI: 87–214 m), 267 m of single-bore well pads (95% CI: 157–378 m), and 150 m of multi-bore well pads (95% CI: 67–233 m). Individual species demonstrated variable tolerance of well pads. Clay-colored sparrows ( Spizella pallida ) were tolerant of oil-related infrastructure, whereas Sprague's pipit ( Anthus spragueii ) avoided areas within 350 m (95% CI: 215–485 m) of single-bore well pads. Given these density patterns around oil wells, the potential footprint of any individual oil well, and oil development across the region, is greatly multiplied for sensitive species. Efforts to reduce new road construction, concentrate wells along developed corridors, combine numerous wells on multi-bore pads rather than build many single-bore wells, and to place well pads near existing roads will serve to minimize loss of suitable habitat for birds. Quantifying environmental degradation caused by oil development is a critical step in understanding how to better mitigate harm to wildlife populations.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2015

Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark–resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

We present a novel formulation of a mark–recapture–resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state–space formulation of the Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state–space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

Biometrics↗

USGS2025

Reducing bias in shorebird nest survival rates across a large Arctic landscape

Reproductive success is a key demographic parameter that can have profound impacts on a species' population trend. Indeed, poor reproductive success has been suggested as a contributing factor to the declines observed in many species of birds, including Arctic-breeding shorebirds. However, the available information on Arctic-breeding shorebird nest survival is restricted to a limited number of non-random locations where proximity to human settlements and traditional invasive monitoring techniques may artificially alter nest predation rates and, thus, bias results. To accurately assess reproductive success, unbiased estimates are needed. In this study, we monitored 96 shorebird nests (six species) at 41 randomly selected sites across a large Arctic landscape (1219 km 2 area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) using minimally invasive techniques (i.e. single nest visits, temperature loggers and cameras) in 2019 and 2022. Overall, daily survival was 0.975 (95% CI: 0.955–0.987), which translates to a 53% (95% CI: 32–72%) probability of a shorebird nest surviving the median (25 days) incubation period for the studied species. Camera footage indicated Arctic Foxes Vulpes lagopus were the primary nest predator (85% of identified predation events), but Parasitic Jaegers Stercorarius parasiticus and Sandhill Cranes Grus canadensis also contributed to nest loss. In both years, greater nest failure occurred in the northwest and northcentral regions of our study area, potentially the result of greater shorebird abundance and density-dependent predation rates. Nest survival rates obtained in this study were the same as those obtained in a previous large geographical study that monitored shorebird nests across numerous small, non-randomly selected, high-density shorebird field sites that employed intensive human monitoring techniques. However, site-specific and annual differences in predator and shorebird species and densities make direct comparisons to previous studies difficult. Continued monitoring using methods that minimize bias and are consistent across time are needed to accurately measure true changes in nest survival rates that may occur under a changing climate and with increased human development.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Evaluating time-removal models for estimating availability of boreal birds during point count surveys: Sample size requirements and model complexity

We used conventional and finite mixture removal models with and without time-varying covariates to evaluate availability given presence for 152 bird species using data from point counts in boreal North America. We found that the choice of model had an impact on the estimability of unknown model parameters and affected the bias and variance of corrected counts. Finite mixture models provided better fit than conventional removal models and better adjusted for count duration. However, reliably estimating parameters and minimizing variance using mixture models required at least 200–1,000 detections. Mixture models with time-varying proportions of infrequent singers were best supported across species, indicating that accounting for date- and time-related heterogeneity is important when combining data across studies over large spatial scales, multiple sampling time frames, or variable survey protocols. Our flexible and continuous time-removal modeling framework can be used to account for such heterogeneity through the incorporation of easily obtainable covariates, such as methods, date, time, and location. Accounting for availability bias in bird surveys allows for better integration of disparate studies at large spatial scales and better adjustment of local, regional, and continental population size estimates.

Condor↗