USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Study Plan”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,513 records · Page 84Linked to original sources

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

British Columbia;Washington↗

Climatic fluctuations and forecasting of streamflow in the lower Colorado River Basin

Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25- to 30-year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R 2 value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R2 value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

New geologic mapping of the northwestern Willamette Valley, Oregon, and its American Viticultural Areas (AVAs)—A foundation for understanding their terroir

A geologic map of the greater Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area is planned that will document the region’s complex geology (currently in review: “Geologic map of the greater Portland metropolitan area and surrounding region, Oregon and Washington,” by Wells, R.E., Haugerud, R.A., Niem, A., Niem, W., Ma, L., Evarts, R., Madin, I., and others). The map, which is planned to be published as a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map, will consist of 51 7.5′ quadrangles covering more than 2,500 square miles, and it will represent more than 100 person-years of geologic mapping and studies. The region was mapped at the relatively detailed scale of 1:24,000 to improve understanding of its geology and its earthquake hazards. More than 100 geologic map units will record the 50-million-year history of volcanism, sedimentation, folding, and faulting above the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The geology contributes to the varied terroir of four American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) in the northwestern Willamette Valley: the Yamhill-Carlton, Dundee Hills, Chehalem Mountains, and Ribbon Ridge AVAs. Terroir is defined as the environmental conditions, especially climate and soils, that influence the quality and character of a region’s crops—in this case, grapes for wine. On this new poster (“New geologic mapping of the northwestern Willamette Valley, Oregon, and its American Viticultural Areas (AVAs)—A foundation for understanding their terroir”), we present the geologic map at a reduced scale (about 1:175,000) to show the general distribution of geologic map units, and we highlight, discuss, and illustrate six major geologic events that helped shape the region and form its terrior. We also discuss the geologic elements that contribute to the character of each of the four AVAs in the northwestern Willamette Valley.

Oregon↗

Sediment yields for selected streams in Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey began a study to determine sediment yields for selected streams in Texas during the 1966 water year to provide information for areas in which sediment-yield data were meager or lacking. These data will aid in delineating problem areas and planning for water-resources development in the State. This report presents estimates of suspended-sediment loads and yields from 20 drainage basins ranging in area from 26 to 1,410 square miles. These estimates are based on samples collected periodically during water years 1966-74. Sediment loads ranged from 1,500 tons per year at the station North Fork Hubbard Creek near Albany to 278,000 tons per year at the station Wichita River at Wichita Falls. Sediment yields ranged from 15 tons per square mile per year in the drainage area of East Yegua Creek near Dime Box to 500 tons per square mile per year in the drainage area of Denton Creek near Justin. Sediment yields from drainage areas generally decrease from northwest to southeast across the State.

Texas↗

The potentiometric surface and water quality of the Floridan aquifer; in southwest Hillsborough County, Florida, 1952-74

Large ground-water withdrawals and a 10-year period of below- normal rainfall have caused the potentiometric surface of the Floridan aquifer to decline more than 10 feet (3 metres) in most of a 200- square-mile (520-square-kilometre) area of southwest Hillsborough County (fig. 1). The lowered ground-water levels and the consequent threat of salt-water intrusion concern farmers and residents who depend on ground water for irrigation and domestic purposes. Exten sive crop irrigation is continuing; small towns such as Ruskin, River- view, Sun City Center, and Apollo Beach are rapidly expanding; and new communities are being planned. In addition, there are plans to mine the extensive phosphate deposits a few miles east of this heavily- f armed area. All these activities require large supplies of fresh ground water. The Hillsborough County Commission cooperated with the U. S. Geological Survey to study changes of water levels and water quality in southwest Hillsborough County. The purpose of this report is to compare the position of the potentiometric surface in 1953 with that in 1973 and to show chloride and sulfate concentrations in ground water in 1974.

Florida↗

Urban trees and cooling: A review of the recent literature (2018 to 2024)

Urban trees mitigate extreme heat through shading and evapotranspiration, but cooling effectiveness varies with tree traits, spatial configurations, and climate. This systematic mapping review synthesizes findings from 115 studies (2018 to 2024) using RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) protocols. Studies were categorized based on geographic location, climate zone, and heat metric (e.g., land surface temperature or air temperature), highlighting a geographic skew toward North America and Asia and underrepresentation of arid and tropical zones. Findings show that urban trees consistently outperform other vegetation types in cooling, particularly in hotter, drier climates when water is available. Dense, tall canopies provide broad-scale cooling, while mixed plantings with shrubs or grass enhance local effects. However, conflicting conclusions arise from using land surface versus air temperature, as these metrics respond differently to tree canopy. Key knowledge gaps include the role of native versus non-native species in arid climates, the effect of urban morphology on cooling, and tree performance during extreme heat. Most studies remain small-scale and limited in generalizability, emphasizing the continued need for city-specific knowledge. This review highlights urban trees as vital for heat mitigation and the importance of harmonizing research objectives and methods to inform planning and practice effectively.

Arboriculture and Urban Forestry↗

The science of trail surveys: Recreation ecology provides new tools for managing wilderness trails

Recreation ecology examines the effects of recreation on protected area ecosystems. One core focus of recreation ecology research is trail science, including the development of efficient protocols to assess and monitor the type and severity of resource impacts, analyses to improve knowledge of factors that influence trail conditions, and studies to assist land managers in improving trail design, maintenance, and visitor management. This article reviews alternative trail survey methodologies most useful for the management of wilderness and backcountry trail networks. Illustrations and implications from survey data for trail planning, design, and management are included.

Park Science↗

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: Concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

Conducting feasibility assessments of potential conservation reintroductions: A case study with the imperiled foothill yellow-legged frog, Rana boylii

Conservation translocations are an increasingly common and often necessary component of recovering species that have become extirpated from portions of their range. Understanding and ameliorating potential threats that reduce the likelihood of successful population establishment at recipient sites is a key component of successful translocation planning. We examined multiple potential threats, including pathogens, contaminants, and invasive species, as well as habitat suitability and food resources, to assess the feasibility of reintroducing threatened, stream-obligate foothill yellow-legged frogs, Rana boylii , to Pinnacles National Park. Foothill yellow-legged frogs were extirpated from this protected area more than half a century ago. Although invasive species, disease, contaminants, food resources, and water temperatures are unlikely to inhibit foothill yellow-legged frog population establishment, potential recipient streams at Pinnacles National Park had shorter hydroperiods and much higher canopy cover than reference streams with extant foothill yellow-legged frog populations. Although the exact cause of extirpation of foothill yellow-legged frogs from Pinnacles National Park is unknown, translocations of foothill yellow-legged frogs to the park are more likely to succeed if riparian canopy cover is reduced and stream hydroperiods increased to better match those at nearby populations. Thoroughly understanding the threats to and characteristics of potential recipient sites could improve the likelihood of success of translocation outcomes in natural areas.

California↗

Summary of climatic, geographic, geologic, and available hydrologic data and identification of data gaps for the Black Bear Creek watershed of the Pawnee Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, Oklahoma

The Pawnee Nation is compiling a comprehensive water-management plan for the Pawnee Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area in north-central Oklahoma. One of the first steps needed in preparing such a plan is a summary and analysis of available hydrologic data and reports that have been published for the area. In phase I of a three-phase, watershed-based approach to summary and analysis of water resources of the Pawnee Nation, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pawnee Nation and Bureau of Indian Affairs, conducted a literature search and data analysis for the Black Bear Creek watershed within the Pawnee Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, referred to herein as the “Black Bear Creek study area.” This report summarizes the available data for the Black Bear Creek study area. Climatic, geographic, geologic, water-use, and hydrologic data from previously published reports or databases were collected and analyzed for this report. Because of the limited amount of groundwater-quality data for the study area, a field collection of groundwater levels and water samples was conducted. Sixteen wells were identified, and groundwater levels were measured at each well. Eight wells were sampled, and water properties, major ions, and nutrients were measured. Overall, there are few long-term monitoring stations to help determine trends of surface-water quality, groundwater quality, and groundwater levels across the study area. Establishing and maintaining long-term streamflow, surface-water-quality, groundwater-level, and groundwater-quality monitoring sites would greatly increase the understanding of the water resources in the Black Bear Creek study area. Additionally, water-use estimates would be greatly improved by metering groundwater withdrawals. Establishing hydrologic and water-quality trends and having improved estimates of water use can aid decision makers in the stewardship of the water resources in this area. This report can aid the Pawnee Nation in prioritization of future projects and serve as a background document for the development of a jurisdiction-wide comprehensive water-management plan.

Oklahoma↗

A review of coastal management approaches to support the integration of ecological and human community planning for climate change

The resilience of socio-ecological systems to sea level rise, storms and flooding can be enhanced when coastal habitats are used as natural infrastructure. Grey infrastructure has long been used for coastal flood protection but can lead to unintended negative impacts. Natural infrastructure often provides similar services as well as added benefits that support short- and long-term biological, cultural, social, and economic goals. While natural infrastructure is becoming more widespread in practice, it often represents a relatively small fraction within portfolios of coastal risk-reducing strategies compared to more traditional grey infrastructure. This study provides a comprehensive review of how natural infrastructure is being used along the United States Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean coasts related to four habitats – tidal marshes, beaches and barrier islands, mangroves, and biogenic reefs. We compare information on the benefits, opportunities and challenges of implementing natural, grey and hybrid infrastructure in the coastal zone. In addition, we present a suite of actions to increase information and reduce uncertainty so that coastal mangers and planners are aware of the full suite of options for restoration, conservation and planning that maximize ecosystem services over short- and long-term planning horizons.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗

Volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

Mount Rainier is a large stratovolcano of andesitic rock in the Cascade Range of western Washington. Although the volcano as it now stands was almost completely formed before the last major glaciation, geologic formations record a variety of events that have occurred at the volcano in postglacial time. Repetition of some of these events today without warning would result in property damage and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. It is appropriate, therefore, to examine the extent, frequency, and apparent origin of these phenomena and to attempt to predict the effects on man of similar events in the future. The present report was prompted by a contrast that we noted during a study of surficial geologic deposits in Mount Rainier National Park, between the present tranquil landscape adjacent to the volcano and the violent events that shaped parts of that same landscape in the recent past. Natural catastrophes that have geologic causes - such as eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, and floods - all too often are disastrous primarily because man has not understood and made allowance for the geologic environment he occupies. Assessment of the potential hazards of a volcanic environment is especially difficult, for prediction of the time and kind of volcanic activity is still an imperfect art, even at active volcanoes whose behavior has been closely observed for many years. Qualified predictions, however, can be used to plan ways in which hazards to life and property can be minimized. The prediction of eruptions is handicapped because volcanism results from conditions far beneath the surface of the earth, where the causative factors cannot be seen and, for the most part, cannot be measured. Consequently, long-range predictions at Mount Rainier can be based only on the past behavior of the volcano, as revealed by study of the deposits that resulted from previous eruptions. Predictions of this sort, of course, cannot be specific as to time and locale of future events, and clearly are valid only if the past behavior is, as we believe, a reliable guide. The purpose of this report is to infer the events recorded by certain postglacial deposits at Mount Rainier and to suggest what bearing similar events in the future might have on land use within and near the park. In addition, table 2 (page 22) gives possible warning signs of an impending eruption. We want to increase man's understanding of a possibly hazardous geologic environment around Mount Rainier volcano, yet we do not wish to imply for certain that the hazards described are either immediate or inevitable. However, we do believe that hazards exist, that some caution is warranted, and that some major hazards can be avoided by judicious planning. Most of the events with which we are concerned are sporadic phenomena that have resulted directly or indirectly from volcanic eruptions. Although no eruptions (other than steam emission) of the volcano in historic time are unequivocally known (Hopson and others, 1962), pyroclastic (air-laid) deposits of pumice and rock debris attest to repeated, widely spaced eruptions during the 10,000 years or so of postglacial time. In addition, the constituents of some debris flows indicate an origin during eruptions of molten rock; other debris flows, because of their large size and constituents, are believed to have been caused by steam explosions. Some debris flows, however, are not related to volcanism at all.

Washington↗

A Synopsis of Technical Issues of Concern for Monitoring Trace Elements in Highway and Urban Runoff

Trace elements, which are regulated for aquatic life protection, are a primary concern in highway- and urban-runoff studies because stormwater runoff may transport these constituents from the land surface to receiving waters. Many of these trace elements are essential for biological activity and become detrimental only when geologic or anthropogenic sources exceed concentrations beyond ranges typical of the natural environment. The Federal Highway Administration and State Transportation Agencies are concerned about the potential effects of highway runoff on the watershed scale and for the management and protection of watersheds. Transportation agencies need information that is documented as valid, current, and scientifically defensible to support planning and management decisions. There are many technical issues of concern for monitoring trace elements; therefore, trace-element data commonly are considered suspect, and the responsibility to provide data-quality information to support the validity of reported results rests with the data-collection agency. Paved surfaces are fundamentally different physically, hydraulically, and chemically from the natural surfaces typical of most freshwater systems that have been the focus of many traceelement- monitoring studies. Existing scientific conceptions of the behavior of trace elements in the environment are based largely upon research on natural systems, rather than on systems typical of pavement runoff. Additionally, the logistics of stormwater sampling are difficult because of the great uncertainty in the occurrence and magnitude of storm events. Therefore, trace-element monitoring programs may be enhanced if monitoring and sampling programs are automated. Automation would standardize the process and provide a continuous record of the variations in flow and water-quality characteristics. Great care is required to collect and process samples in a manner that will minimize potential contamination or attenuation of trace elements and other sources of bias and variability in the sampling process. Trace elements have both natural and anthropogenic sources that may affect the sampling process, including the sample-collection and handling materials used in many trace-element monitoring studies. Trace elements also react with these materials within the timescales typical for collection, processing and analysis of runoff samples. To study the characteristics and potential effects of trace elements in highway and urban runoff, investigators typically sample one or more operationally defined matrixes including: whole water, dissolved (filtered water), suspended sediment, bottom sediment, biological tissue, and contaminant sources. The sampling and analysis of each of these sample matrixes can provide specific information about the occurrence and distribution of trace elements in runoff and receiving waters. There are, however, technical concerns specific to each matrix that must be understood and addressed through use of proper collection and processing protocols. Valid protocols are designed to minimize inherent problems and to maximize the accuracy, precision, comparability, and representativeness of data collected. Documentation, including information about monitoring protocols, quality assurance and quality control efforts, and ancillary data also is necessary to establish data quality. This documentation is especially important for evaluation of historical traceelement monitoring data, because trace-element monitoring protocols and analysis methods have been constantly changing over the past 30 years.

Open-File Report↗

Surface detection probability of leatherback turtles at the Rio de La Plata and its Maritime Front: Implications for density estimates

The Río de la Plata and its Maritime Front (RLPMF) serve as a key, seasonal feeding area for leatherback sea turtles ( Dermochelys coriacea ) in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. While leatherback turtles can be frequently observed in these waters, there is little data on regional abundances and relative densities, which hinders threat assessments and the development of effective conservation strategies. Consequently, given that in this region parameters needed for in-water leatherback turtle density estimates have not been previously published, the objective of this study was to investigate the surface availability bias, g(0). This parameter requires region-specific considerations for factors like aggregation behaviour and environmental conditions. To address these gaps, our study assessed leatherback turtle aggregations in the RLPMF using satellite tag data and direct drone observations. Through satellite tracking, surfacing behaviour data of six leatherback turtles, g(0) was estimated to be 0.3183. This analysis represents the first of its kind in the region, providing an important contribution to sea turtle conservation studies. It enables substantial progress in characterising surface time, which is essential for understanding leatherback diving and surface behaviour in the region and for improving relative density estimates in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, this contribution represents a resource for planning more effective conservation strategies to mitigate threats and promote population recovery.

Río de la Plata and its Maritime Front↗

Patch age since disturbance drives patch dynamics for flycatchers breeding in both reservoir and riverine habitat

Species dependent upon early-successional landscapes often occupy patches at different stages of recovery after disturbance. The demographic processes that drive patch dynamics in these systems have rarely been described but are important for developing effective conservation and management plans, especially when humans have modified the timing and intensity of disturbances that drive regeneration. In riparian systems, disturbance by floods historically initiated plant regeneration, but many rivers are now regulated and stream flows disrupted by dams and reservoirs. We studied the demography and patch dynamics of an endangered, neotropical migrant bird dependent on remnant riparian patches for breeding, the southwestern willow flycatcher ( Empidonax trailli extimus ), over 9 yr at both a riverine and reservoir site in central Arizona. We found that at both sites, number of territories/ha within patches increased for 2–4 yr after colonization and then declined, with several patches abandoned after 6–10 yr. Age of birds increased with patch age, with younger birds in colonizing patches and older, site-faithful birds in older patches, while mean per capita reproductive success did not differ with patch age. Natal dispersal and breeding dispersal were primarily from intermediate-aged patches into either young- or other intermediate-aged patches. At both riverine and reservoir sites, both the number of patches and the number of territorial birds increased over time, with the percentage of territories shifting into younger and younger patches. The type of disturbance driving patch regeneration differed between riverine and reservoir sites (seasonal flooding vs. falling lake levels due to drought), but the demographic patterns did not, indicating that reservoirs can generate patch dynamics similar to those on rivers. Managing stream flows and reservoir levels to maintain disturbance cycles sufficient to generate riparian patches at different stages of regeneration through time would benefit succession-dependent species like the endangered flycatcher we studied, whether those disturbances arise from natural flooding events along free-flowing rivers or through changes in reservoir levels.

Ecosphere↗

Comparison of groundwater age models for assessing nitrate loading, transport pathways, and management options in a complex aquifer system

In an aquifer system with complex hydrogeology, mixing of groundwater with different ages could occur associated with various flow pathways. In this study, we applied different groundwater age estimation techniques (lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to characterize groundwater age distributions and the major pathways of nitrate contamination in the Gosan agricultural field, Jeju Island. According to the lumped parameter model, groundwater age in the study area could be explained by the binary mixing of the young groundwater (4-33 years) and the old water component (>60 years). The complex hydrogeologic regimes and local heterogeneity observed in the study area (multi-layered aquifer, well leakage hydraulics) were particularly well reflected in the numerical model. The numerical model predicted that the regional aquifer of Gosan responded to the fertilizer applications more rapidly (mean age: 9.7-22.3 years) than as estimated by other models. Our study results demonstrated that application and comparison of multiple age estimation methods can be useful to understand better the flow regimes and the mixing characteristics of groundwater with different ages (pathways), hence, to reduce the risk of improper groundwater management plan arising from the aquifer heterogeneity.

Jeju Island↗

Effects of climate-related stream factors on patterns of individual summer growth of Cutthroat Trout

Coldwater fishes are sensitive to abiotic and biotic stream factors, which can be influenced by climate. Distributions of inland salmonids in North America have declined significantly, with many of the current strongholds located in small headwater systems that may serve as important refugia as climate change progresses. We investigated the effects of discharge, stream temperature, trout biomass, and food availability on summer growth of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri , a species of concern with significant ecological value. Individual size, stream discharge, sample section biomass, and temperature were all associated with growth, but had differing effects on energy allocation. Stream discharge had a positive relationship with growth rates in length and mass; greater rates of prey delivery at higher discharges probably enabled trout to accumulate reserve tissues in addition to structural growth. Temperature effects were positive but not significant, and support in growth models was limited, likely due to the cold thermal regimes of the study area. The strength of the discharge effect on growth suggests that climate adaptation strategies for coldwater fishes that focus solely on thermal characteristics may be misleading and highlights the importance of considering multiple factors, including hydrologic regimes, in conservation planning.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types as an alternative to species distribution models for projecting plant species shifts under changing climates

Land managers need new tools for planning novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used extensively to predict future distributions of species under different climates, but their map products are often too coarse for fine-scale operational use. In this study we developed a flexible, efficient, and robust method for mapping current and future distributions and abundances of vegetation species and communities at the fine spatial resolutions that are germane to land management. First, we mapped Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) using conventional statistical modeling techniques (Random Forests) that used bioclimatic ecosystem process and climate variables as predictors. We obtained over 50% accuracy across 13 mapped PVTs for our study area. We then applied future climate projections as climate input to the Random Forest model to generate future PVT maps, and used field data describing the occurrence of tree and non-tree species in each PVT category to model and map species distribution for current and future climate. These maps were then compared to two previous SDM mapping efforts with over 80% agreement and equivalent accuracy. Because PVTs represent the biophysical potential of the landscape to support vegetation communities as opposed to the vegetation that currently exists, they can be readily linked to climate forecasts and correlated with other, climate-sensitive ecological processes significant in land management, such as fire regimes and site productivity.

Montana↗