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Methods for evaluating riparian habitats with applications to management

Riparian area planning and management is a major national issues today--something that should have been the case a century ago. A century of additive effects of land use has resulted in major impacts on many riparian stream habitats and their fisheries, wildlife, and domestic livestock use. Before scientists can evaluate the influences of various land and water uses on riparian environments, they must first understand these environments. This means being able to detect and measure with confidence the natural and artificial variation and instantaneous conditions of the riparian habitat. These conditions must then be related to the production capability of riparian habitat and any extraneous factors affecting this production potential.

Report↗

Recent planform changes in the Upper Mississippi River

Geomorphic changes in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) have long been a concern of river agencies charged with maintaining and restoring river habitat (GREAT 1980; Jackson et al. 1981; USFWS 1992). Large meandering alluvial rivers like the UMR are expected to constantly change and adjust their fluvial landforms within their riparian corridors as a result of the natural interaction of hydrologic processes, sediment movement, and vegetation over time. However, present geomorphic changes in the UMR reflect altered hydrologic, hydraulic, and sediment conditions caused by regulated flows, constructed agricultural levees and navigation dams, altered land use in the watershed, and climate change. Levees reduce lateral hydrologic and sediment connectivity between channels and floodplains on many tributaries and on the Mississippi River downstream of Pool 13. Between each of the dams are a repeating series of landforms associated with tailwater, intermediate, and impounded conditions. The dams maintain a minimum water level, thus creating many off-channel areas that act as sediment traps. Whereas high-head dams cut off sedimentological connectivity longitudinally through the river corridor (Skalak et al., 2013), low head dams on the UMR only slightly altered transport longitudinally. Deltaic-like sedimentation can be common in the impounded sections of dammed rivers. Erosion of relict land surfaces that remained above the raised impounded water levels has been the dominant change in UMR impounded sections due to increased wind fetch leading to increased wave action. Even though upland sources of sediment from tributaries have decreased over the middle to late 20th century, increased annual precipitation, the interplay of increased variability in flood magnitudes from year to year, and more fall and winter flooding have likely changed erosion and sedimentation patterns in the UMR (Belby, et al., 2019). Paradoxically, monitoring and research indicates that the concentration of some water column constituents like total suspended solids and phosphorous has decreased during the 1991 to 2014 time period (Kreiling and Houser, 2016). In areas prone to increased sedimentation, bed elevations rise and thereby water depths are reduced at a given discharge, resulting in loss of fish habitat. Sediment deposition or erosion further influences water exchange rates between main channel and off-channel areas in the river by increasing resistance in connecting channels or enlarging existing connecting channels. Water depth and water exchange rates are the most prominent features describing habitat quality in the UMR (De Jager et al. 2018), and in some cases, the trajectory of planform change from heightened deposition promises to threaten deep backwater habitats particularly important for overwintering fish. Although information on the rate of vertical change in bed elevation is needed for a complete assessment of geomorphic change associated with the loss of deep backwater habitats, mapping planform changes over time (i.e., lateral changes between the land-water boundary) provide needed information on the location, potential cause, and progressive direction of deposition, especially in the mid sections between dams where deltaic processes are the most pronounced. Several types of planform changes have been observed and identified as concerns. For example, island loss in the large impounded areas of the upper part of the UMR was one of the concerns identified by river managers in the 1980s and 90s, and subsequently island construction became a common form of restoration implemented by the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program (USACE 2012). Other subtler planform changes, such as channel bank erosion and delta formation in backwaters, are perceived to be important, but have largely gone unquantified. A systemwide reconnaissance of the UMR and IWW conducted in 1998 concluded that 14-percent of the river banks were eroding (Nakato and Anderson 1998). However, stabilization of existing river banks has never been widely pursued as a restoration measure, due to the high cost and uncertain benefits. Delta formation reduces the amount of backwater habitat; however, the deltas maintain and create a mix of riparian and aquatic habitats, and that is generally considered to be beneficial for wildlife and fish. If recent hydrologic trends of more frequent and longer duration flood events continue, a better understanding of planform changes can help in describing past changes, and then be used to forecast potential future trajectories of change. If UMR resource managers determine that past and forecasted conditions are undesirable, then UMRR projects could be identified and prioritized to address those concerns. Vegetative cover associations with landform changes have been used to detect and quantify planform changes in many rivers (Johnson 1985; Hiatt 2015; Volte et al. 2015). Freyer and Jefferson (2013) completed such a study in Pool 6 of the UMR using the landcover data from 12 dates over a 115-yr period, including the 1989, 2000, and 2010/2011 landcover/use (LCU) data from the UMRR Program. Planform change detected over the last 20 years represented by the UMRR Program data best reflect present-day geomorphic patterns, rates and processes. Changes occurring prior to dam construction and changes occurring soon after dam construction are likely not the same as those happening now, 50-70 years after dam construction and creation of the impoundments (McHenry et al., 1984; Bhowmik and Adams, 1986; WEST Consultants, 2000). The LCU data from each of the 1989, 2000, and 2010/2011 imagery was developed using similar methods and is available in a Geographical Information System (GIS) for the entire UMR and therefore provides the opportunity for a more comprehensive planform change analysis. This study used GIS overlays of LCU classes to map and quantify changes in planform features over two periods, looking specifically for depositional areas where terrestrial and wetland vegetation expanded at the expense of open water. The land expansion was grouped into four possible process-based types common in large floodplain rivers, some following that used by Lewin et al. (2017). The four types include: crevasse deltas emanating from a breach from a main channel through a natural levee or narrow floodplain into backwaters (crevasse deltas), tributary deltas expanding into backwaters (tributary deltas), deltaic bars at the upstream end of impoundments (impounded deltas), and linear-like bars extending from the downstream ends of narrow levees and remnant floodplains (bar-tail limbs). The methods deployed for change detection addressed possible errors from a variety of sources.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

River mainstem thermal regimes influence population structuring within an Appalachian brook trout population

Brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) often exist as highly differentiated populations, even at small spatial scales, due either to natural or anthropogenic sources of isolation and low rates of dispersal. In this study, we used molecular approaches to describe the unique population structure of brook trout inhabiting the Shavers Fork watershed, located in eastern West Virginia, and contrast it to nearby populations in tributaries of the upper Greenbrier River and North Fork South Branch Potomac Rivers. Bayesian and maximum likelihood clustering methods identified minimal population structuring among 14 collections of brook trout from throughout the mainstem and tributaries of Shavers Fork, highlighting the role of the cold-water mainstem for connectivity and high rates of effective migration among tributaries. In contrast, the Potomac and Greenbrier River collections displayed distinct levels of population differentiation among tributaries, presumably resulting from tributary isolation by warm-water mainstems. Our results highlight the importance of protecting and restoring cold-water mainstem habitats as part of region-wide brook trout conservation efforts. In addition, our results from Shavers Fork provide a contrast to previous genetic studies that characterize Appalachian brook trout as fragmented isolates rather than well-mixed populations. Additional study is needed to determine whether the existence of brook trout as genetically similar populations among tributaries is truly unique and whether connectivity among brook trout populations can potentially be restored within other central Appalachian watersheds.

West Virginia↗

Analytical interferences of mercuric chloride preservative in environmental water samples: Determination of organic compounds isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction or closed-loop stripping

Analytical interferences were observed during the determination of organic compounds in groundwater samples preserved with mercuric chloride. The nature of the interference was different depending on the analytical isolation technique employed. (1) Water samples extracted with dichloromethane by continuous liquid-liquid extraction (CLLE) and analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry revealed a broad HgCl2 'peak' eluting over a 3-5-min span which interfered with the determination of coeluting organic analytes. Substitution of CLLE for separatory funnel extraction in EPA method 508 also resulted in analytical interferences from the use of HgCl2 preservative. (2) Mercuric chloride was purged, along with organic contaminants, during closed-loop stripping (CLS) of groundwater samples and absorbed onto the activated charcoal trap. Competitive sorption of the HgCl2 by the trap appeared to contribute to the observed poor recoveries for spiked organic contaminants. The HgCl2 was not displaced from the charcoal with the dichloromethane elution solvent and required strong nitric acid to achieve rapid, complete displacement. Similar competitive sorption mechanisms might also occur in other purge and trap methods when this preservative is used.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Geomagnetic paleointensities by the Thelliers' method from submarine pillow basalts: Effects of seafloor weathering

Measurements of geomagnetic paleointensity using the Thelliers' double‐heating method in vacuum have been made on 10 specimens of submarine pillow basalt obtained from 7 fragments dredged from localities 700,000 years old or younger. In the magnetic minerals, the titanium/iron ratio parameter x and the cation deficiency (oxidation) parameter x were determined by X‐ray diffraction and Curie temperature measurement. Fresh material ( z ≅ 0) provided excellent results: most of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) could be thermally demagnetized before the magnetic minerals became altered, and the NRM‐TRM lines were straight and well constrained, and geologically reasonable paleointensities were obtained. Somewhat oxidized material ( z ≅ 0.2) also provided apparently valid paleointensities: values were similar to those from fresh specimens cut from the same fragments, although only half or less of the NRM could be thermally demagnetized before alteration of the magnetic minerals. More highly oxidized material ( z ≅ 0.6) gave a result seriously in error: the paleointensity value is much too low, because of continuous disproportionation of titanomaghemite during the heating experiments and because seafloor weathering had decreased the NRM intensity. From limited published data, the extent of oxidation of titanomagnetite to cation deficient titanomaghemite in pillow basalt exposed on the seafloor appears to be approximately z = 0.3 at 0.2–0.5 m.y., z = 0.6 at 1 m.y., and z = 0.8–1.0 at 10–100 m.y. This implies that valid paleointensities can be obtained from exposed submarine basalt, but only if the basalt is younger than a few hundred thousand years. Equally good paleointensities were obtained from strongly magnetized (L‐type) basalt and moderately magnetized (L‐type) basalt. The degree of low‐temperature oxidation of cubic iron‐titanium oxides in submarine basalts correlates very well with the diminution of amplitude of linear magnetic anomalies when both are compared as a function of crustal age. Systematic radial variation of Curie temperature is a primary feature of submarine basalt pillows, so that estimation of the oxidation parameter z from the Curie temperature alone by assuming a value for x can be in error. Reasonably precise and self‐consistent values of both x and z can be obtained if both the cubic cell dimension and the Curie temperature of the cubic oxide are measured.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Characterizing drought in California: new drought indices and scenario-testing in support of resource management

Introduction California’s recent drought (2012–2016) has implications throughout the state for natural resource management and adaptation planning and has generated many discussions about drought characterization and recovery. This study characterizes drought conditions with two indices describing deficits in natural water supply and increases in landscape stress developed on the basis of water balance modeling, at a fine spatial scale to assess the variation in conditions across the entire state, and provides an in-depth evaluation for the Russian River basin in northern California to address local resource management by developing extreme drought scenarios for consideration in planning and adaptation. Methods We employed the USGS Basin Characterization Model to characterize drought on the basis of water supply (a measure of recharge plus runoff) and landscape stress (climatic water deficit). These were applied to the state and to the Russian River basin where antecedent soil moisture conditions were evaluated and extreme drought scenarios were developed and run through a water management and reservoir operations model to further explore impacts on water management. Results Drought indices indicated that as of the end of water year 2016 when reservoirs were full, additional water supply and landscape replenishment of up to three average years of precipitation in some locations was needed to return to normal conditions. Antecedent soil conditions in the Russian River were determined to contribute to very different water supply results for different years and were necessary to understand to anticipate proper watershed response to climate. Extreme drought scenarios manifested very different kinds of drought and recovery and characterization helps to guide the management response to drought. Conclusions These scenarios and indices illustrate how droughts differ with regard to water supply and landscape stress and how long warm droughts recover much more slowly than short very dry droughts due to the depletion of water in the soil and unsaturated zone that require filling before runoff can occur. Recognition of ongoing conditions and likelihood of recovery provides tools and information for a range of resource managers to cope with drought conditions.

California↗

Conflicting research on the demography, ecology, and social behavior of Gunnison's prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni )

Gunnison's prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni ) are rare, diurnal, colonial, burrowing, ground-dwelling squirrels. Studies of marked individuals living under natural conditions in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s showed that males are heavier than females throughout the year; that adult females living in the same territory are consistently close kin; and that females usually mate with the sexually mature male(s) living in the home territory. Research from 2007 through 2010 challenges all 3 of these findings. Here we discuss how different methods might have led to the discrepancies.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment with application to offshore renewable energy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researches the biological diversity and distribution of species to support management, conservation, and resource use decisions. USGS scientists advance detection and monitoring technologies to assess changes in fish and wildlife populations, biodiversity, and the health of ecosystems. The United States is planning to install 30 gigawatts of offshore marine and wind energy by 2030. However, the effects on fish and wildlife and their habitats are not well understood. The USGS is a leader in the field of eDNA technologies and has helped advance robotic eDNA samplers, has extensive experience working in the offshore environment, and has developed novel and actionable statistical methods and standards for eDNA monitoring applications. This fact sheet presents key eDNA research and development advances needed for realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment and applying eDNA monitoring to offshore renewable energy development. New and cost-effective tools for measuring changes in biodiversity in response to offshore renewable energy development can help to inform natural resource management and project planning and permitting decisions.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Roadmap 2014

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for protecting the natural resources and heritage contained on almost 20 percent of the land in the United States. This responsibility requires acquisition of remotely sensed data throughout vast lands, including areas that are remote and potentially dangerous to access. One promising new technology for data collection is unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), which may be better suited (achieving superior science, safety, and savings) than traditional methods. UAS, regardless of their size, have the same operational components: aircraft, payloads, communications unit, and operator control unit. The aircraft is the platform that flies and carries any required payloads. For Department of the Interior missions these payloads will be either a sensor or set of sensors that can acquire the specific type of remotely sensed data that is needed. The aircraft will also carry the payload that is responsible for transmitting live airborne video images, compass headings, and location information to the operator control unit. The communications unit, which transfers information between the aircraft and the operator control unit, consists of the hardware and software required to establish both uplink and downlink communications. Finally, the operator control unit both controls and monitors the aircraft and can be operated either by a pilot on the ground or autonomously. This Roadmap provides operational procedures and lessons learned from completed proof-of-concept UAS missions in areas such as wildlife management, resource monitoring, and public land inspections. This information provides not only an implementation framework but can also help increase the awareness by resource managers, scientists, and others of the ability of UAS technology to advance data quality, improve personnel safety, and reduce data acquisition costs.

Open-File Report↗

Summary of the history and research of the U.S. Geological Survey gas hydrate properties laboratory in Menlo Park, California, active from 1993 to 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Clathrate Hydrate Properties Project, active from 1993 to 2022 in Menlo Park, California, stemmed from an earlier project on the properties of planetary ices supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program. We took a material science approach in both projects, emphasizing chemical purity of samples, having controlled grain size and grain texture, and having verified crystal structures and phase relations. A foundational contribution from our USGS Gas Hydrate Properties Laboratory (GHPL) was in demonstrating the ability to reproducibly create such pure clathrate hydrate samples for study. Clathrate sample synthesis was achieved by heating sieved and weighed pure granular water ice in the presence of cold clathrate-forming gas or liquid. During heating, the ice melts at the grain scale and reacts with the gas to form clathrate. The resulting material has the desired uniformity and purity, with known intergranular porosity; our subsequent measurements showed that these clathrates exhibited the established clathrate structures and phase relations. This novel synthesis method was successful in creating clathrates of pure methane, ethane, propane, carbon dioxide, and multi-component gases. By mixing sand or silt with granular ice, we were also able to make clathrate-sediment aggregates with controlled grain textures. This simple method, adopted by many others in the community, permitted us to measure the physical and chemical properties of well-characterized and well-crystallized clathrates and clathrate/sediment aggregates. At about the same time, we adapted conventional scanning electron microscopy to cryogenic conditions for analysis of grain-scale characteristics of clathrates made in the GHPL as well as those collected from nature by drill core. The uniformity and reproducibility of our samples also allowed us to investigate how clathrates respond to environmental changes in chemistry, temperature, and pressure: we measured chemical exchange rates with dissolved gas species—such as noble gases and chlorofluorocarbons—as well as rates of clathrate dissolution and decomposition. These advances include the first accurate mapping of the conditions that promote the remarkable process of “anomalous preservation” at room pressure, a metastability that offers potential application for low-cost and safe transportation of natural gas from gas fields far from pipelines. Another advancement stemming from the GHPL was the compaction of as-synthesized porous clathrates to nearly full density by applying external pressure using three different techniques. Compaction allows for high-accuracy measurements of many fundamental physical and chemical properties of these materials, such as elastic wavespeeds and moduli, complete thermal properties, decomposition rates, thermal expansion, and clathrate equations of state. These properties and others, in turn, have helped USGS scientists to interpret geophysical well logs and active geophysical surveys, as well as model the rates of gas production from hydrate deposits in nature. Studying this class of icy minerals that occur in abundance on Earth and in the outer solar system has been a fascinating laboratory journey. Here, we summarize the history and major findings of the USGS GHPL in Menlo Park, including both in-house research as well as findings from the synergistic collaborations with other agencies and institutes that were key to the success of our laboratory. The Menlo Park GHPL was more formally incorporated within the USGS Gas Hydrates Project, a collaboration among multiple USGS Science Centers, in the early 2000s under the leadership of Deborah Hutchinson, and now under the leadership of Carolyn Ruppel and Timothy Collett.

Open-File Report↗

Groundwater discharge to the Mississippi River and groundwater balances for the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer, Clearwater to Elk River, Minnesota, 2012–14

The Interstate 94 Corridor has been identified as 1 of 16 Minnesota groundwater areas of concern because of its limited available groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed six seasonal and annual groundwater balances for parts of the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer to better understand its long-term (next several decades) sustainability. A high-precision Mississippi River groundwater discharge measurement of 5.23 cubic feet per second per mile was completed at low-flow conditions to better inform these groundwater balances. The recharge calculation methods RISE program and Soil-Water-Balance model were used to inform the groundwater balances. For the RISE-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 3.30 to 11.91 inches per year; for the SWB-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 5.23 to 17.06 inches per year. Calculated groundwater discharges ranged from 1.45 to 5.06 cubic feet per second per mile, a ratio of 27.7 to 96.4 percent of the measured groundwater discharge. Ratios of groundwater pumping to total recharge ranged from 8.6 to 97.2 percent, with the longer-term groundwater balances ranging from 12.9 to 19 percent. Overall, this study focused on the surficial aquifer system and its interactions with the Mississippi River. During the study period (October 1, 2012, through November 30, 2014), six synoptic measurements, along with continuous groundwater hydrographs, rainfall records, and a compilation of the pertinent irrigation data, establishes the framework for future groundwater modeling efforts.

Minnesota↗

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the Suwannee River Water Management District, Florida

Flood-frequency statistics for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-. 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, based on three methods of analysis, are presented for 25 continuous-record and seven peak flow partial-record gaging stations in the Suwannee River Water Management District. The first method, for gaged stations, utilizes station records; the second method, for ungaged sites, utilizes regional regression analysis; and the third method uses a weighted combination of the station and regional values. Because the weighted values utilize two more or less independent estimates of the peak flow statistic, they are considered more accurate than the station estimates or the regression estimates alone. Also, the use of another weighting scheme to improve estimates of flood frequency statistics at ungaged sites is demonstrated. The karstic nature of much of the Suwannee River Water Management District significantly attenuates flood peaks in some streams by providing substantial subsurface storage when river stages are high. At such times, springs discharging into rivers may reverse flow temporarily and become sinks.

Florida↗

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data↗

The occurrence of large floods in the United States in the modern hydroclimate regime: Seasonality, trends, and large-scale climate associations

Many studies investigate river floods by analyzing annual maximum series that record the largest flow of each year, including many within-bank events inconsequential for human communities. Fewer focus on larger floods, especially at the continental scale. Using 473 streamgages across the conterminous United States with near-natural flow from 1966 to 2015, we characterized the seasonality, occurrence, and climatic associations of the 10 largest and 2 largest floods at each site. These are often overbank events that have ecosystem functions and pose risks to humans. We grouped sites into 14 clusters corresponding to climatic and physiographic regions and characterized their flood seasonality at a monthly resolution using a probabilistic method. We then evaluated annual occurrence regionally and nationally, and seasonal occurrence regionally, by complementing a traditional approach to trend analyses with a novel method based on expected occurrence. Relationships between flood occurrence and climate indices were also investigated. Large floods have strong seasonality in some regions, but in areas with numerous flood-generating mechanisms, seasonality is more complex. There is little evidence nationally that large riverine floods are more or less frequent than expected in recent years and only two regions show significant trends in annual counts; few show seasonal trends. We found some regional relationships between flood counts and climate indices, annually and seasonally; nationally the Pacific North American pattern is related to annual counts of the 2 largest floods. Large-flood occurrence was generally stable across the United States in the last five decades; this may or may not continue with projected warming.

Water Resources Research↗

A two-phase sampling design for increasing detections of rare species in occupancy surveys

1. Occupancy estimation is a commonly used tool in ecological studies owing to the ease at which data can be collected and the large spatial extent that can be covered. One major obstacle to using an occupancy-based approach is the complications associated with designing and implementing an efficient survey. These logistical challenges become magnified when working with rare species when effort can be wasted in areas with none or very few individuals. 2. Here, we develop a two-phase sampling approach that mitigates these problems by using a design that places more effort in areas with higher predicted probability of occurrence. We compare our new sampling design to traditional single-season occupancy estimation under a range of conditions and population characteristics. We develop an intuitive measure of predictive error to compare the two approaches and use simulations to assess the relative accuracy of each approach. 3. Our two-phase approach exhibited lower predictive error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach in highly spatially correlated environments. The difference was greatest when detection probability was high (0·75) regardless of the habitat or sample size. When the true occupancy rate was below 0·4 (0·05-0·4), we found that allocating 25% of the sample to the first phase resulted in the lowest error rates. 4. In the majority of scenarios, the two-phase approach showed lower error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach suggesting our new approach is fairly robust to a broad range of conditions and design factors and merits use under a wide variety of settings. 5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation and management of rare species are a challenging task facing natural resource managers. It is critical for studies involving rare species to efficiently allocate effort and resources as they are usually of a finite nature. We believe our approach provides a framework for optimal allocation of effort while maximizing the information content of the data in an attempt to provide the highest conservation value per unit of effort.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗

The history of stream gaging in Ohio

Introduction Streams are a natural resource that can influence economic growth and the development of communities. They supply water for many uses, provide habitat for aquatic plants and animals, and sup-port recreational activities such as boat-ing and fishing. The amount of water (flow) in a stream — either too little or too much — can seriously affect these uses and human life. By using a method called stream gaging , information about the flow in a stream and the fluctuations in that flow can be obtained. n its simplest form, stream gaging may consist of measuring any number of the following stream characteristics: stage (or depth), cross-sectional area, velocity, and (or) flow (or discharge). When the depth and velocity are measured at several points across the stream channel so that the flow (or discharge ) is calculated, a streamflow measurement (or discharge measurement ) is made. By making streamflow measurements at the same site on a stream over a wide range of stages, a relation between stage and discharge can be developed. This relation can be used to provide information on the magnitude and fluctuations of flow on a stream. If long-term or continuous information is needed on a specific site, a stream-gaging station can be established. A stream-gaging station is a site where stage is monitored and recorded and streamflow measurements are made to provide a stage-discharge relation. Ever since the first documented streamflow measurement was made in Ohio — on the Sandusky River — stream-gaging information has been used to minimize the effects of floods and droughts, determine locations for water intakes and wastewater-treatment plants, and provide data for many other uses. Today, stream gaging is a routine activity in managing the State’s water resources.

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A comparison of photograph-interpreted and IfSAR-derived maps of polar bear denning habitat for the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in Alaska use the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for maternal denning. Pregnant bears den in snow banks for more than 3 months in winter during which they give birth to and nurture young. Denning is one of the most vulnerable times in polar bear life history as the family group cannot simply walk away from a disturbance without jeopardizing survival of newly born cubs. The ANWR includes the “1002 Area”, a region recently opened for oil and gas exploration by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). As a part of its mission, the DOI “… protects and manages the Nation's natural resources …” and is therefore responsible for conserving polar bears and encouraging development of energy potential. Because future industrial activities could overlap habitats used by denning polar bears, identifying these habitats can inform the decisions of resource managers tasked to develop resources and protect polar bears. To help inform these efforts, we qualitatively compared the distribution of denning habitat identified by two different methods: previously published habitat from manual interpretation of aerial photographs, and habitat derived by computer interrogation of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) digital terrain models (DTM). Because photograph-interpreted methods depicted denning habitat as a line and IfSAR-derived methods depicted habitat as a polygon, we assessed agreement between the two methods with distance measurements. We found that 77.5 percent of IfSAR-derived denning habitat (79.6 km2 ; 1.2 percent of the 6,837.0 km2 1002 Area) was within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat (3,026.9 km), including 53.9 percent within 200 m. This distribution differed from that of randomly distributed points, as only 49.4 percent of these occurred within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat, including 18.3 percent within 200 m. Both methods appear to identify the major physiographic features that polar bears might select for denning. IfSAR-derived methods identified habitat at greater frequency beyond major landscape features such as coastal bluffs, river banks and lakeshores, were more likely to identify isolated pockets of putative denning habitat, and were easier to implement than deriving habitat from photograph-interpretive efforts. However, previous research suggests that photograph-interpretation methods may identify denning habitat more correctly than computer interrogation of IfSAR DTMs. Future work should quantify the distribution of IfSAR-derived denning habitat relative to actual landscape features and polar bear maternal dens in the 1002 Area, and investigate the feasibility of habitat identification from finer grained DTMs.

Alaska↗