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USGS2016

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats. A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system. For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring. Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004. For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs. A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2017

Procedure for calculating estimated ultimate recoveries of wells in the Mississippian Barnett Shale, Bend Arch–Fort Worth Basin Province of north-central Texas

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey published an assessment of technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources of the Mississippian Barnett Shale in the Bend Arch–Fort Worth Basin Province of north-central Texas. Of the two assessment units involved in the overall assessment, one included a roughly equal number of oil wells and gas wells as classified by the U.S. Geological Survey’s standard of gas wells having production greater than or equal to 20,000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil and oil wells having production less than 20,000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil. As a result, estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) were calculated for both oil wells and gas wells in one of the assessment units. Generally, only gas EURs or only oil EURs are calculated for an assessment unit. These EURs were calculated with data from IHS Markit TM using DeclinePlus software in the Harmony interface and were a major component of the quantitative resource assessment. The calculated mean EURs ranged from 235 to 2,078 million cubic feet of gas and 21 to 39 thousand barrels of oil for various subsets of wells.

Texas↗
USGS2017

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS. The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft 3/s ) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft 3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88). Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow File Data Verification Project, 2008–16

Annual peak streamflow (peak flow) at a streamgage is defined as the maximum instantaneous flow in a water year. A water year begins on October 1 and continues through September 30 of the following year; for example, water year 2015 extends from October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2015. The accuracy, characterization, and completeness of the peak streamflow data are critical in determining flood-frequency estimates that are used daily to design water and transportation infrastructure, delineate flood-plain boundaries, and regulate development and utilization of lands throughout the United States and are essential to understanding the implications of climate and land-use change on flooding and high-flow conditions. As of November 14, 2016, peak-flow data existed for 27,240 unique streamgages in the United States and its territories. The data, collectively referred to as the “peak-flow file,” are available as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) public web interface, the National Water Information System, at https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak . Although the data have been routinely subjected to periodic review by the USGS Office of Surface Water and screening at the USGS Water Science Center level, these data were not reviewed in a national, systematic manner until 2008 when automated scripts were developed and applied to detect potential errors in peak-flow values and their associated dates, gage heights, and peak-flow qualification codes, as well as qualification codes associated with the gage heights. USGS scientists and hydrographers studied the resulting output, accessed basic records and field notes, and corrected observed errors or, more commonly, confirmed existing data as correct. This report summarizes the changes in peak-flow file data at a national level, illustrates their nature and causation, and identifies the streamgages affected by these changes. Specifically, the peak-flow data were compared for streamgages with peak flow measured as of November 19, 2008 (before the automated scripts were widely applied) and on November 14, 2016 (after several rounds of corrections). There were 659,332 peak-flow values in the 2008 dataset and 731,965 peak-flow values in the 2016 dataset. When compared to the 2016 dataset, 5,179 (0.79 percent) peak-flow values had changed; 36,506 (5.54 percent) of the peak-flow qualification codes had changed; 1,938 (0.29 percent) peak-flow dates had changed; 18,599 (2.82 percent) of the peak-flow gage heights had changed; and 20,683 (3.14 percent) of the gage-height qualification codes had changed—most as a direct result of the peak-flow file data verification effort led by USGS personnel. The various types of changes are summarized and mapped in this report. In addition to this report, a corresponding USGS data release is provided to identify changes in peak flows at individual streamgages. The data release and the procedures to access the data release are described in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Evaluating the potential for near-shore bathymetry on the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, using Landsat 8 and WorldView-3 imagery

Satellite-derived near-shore bathymetry (SDB) is becoming an increasingly important method for assessing vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards in low-lying atolls of the northern tropical Pacific Ocean. Satellite imagery has become a cost-effective means for mapping near-shore bathymetry because ships cannot collect soundings safely while operating close to the shore. Also, green laser light detection and ranging (lidar) acquisitions are expensive in remote locations. Previous research has demonstrated that spectral band ratio-based techniques, commonly called the natural logarithm approach, may lead to more precise measurements and modeling of bathymetry because of the phenomenon that different substrates at the same depth have approximately equal ratio values. The goal of this research was to apply the band ratio technique to Landsat 8 at-sensor radiance imagery and WorldView-3 atmospherically corrected imagery in the coastal waters surrounding the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, to derive near-shore bathymetry that could be incorporated into a seamless topobathymetric digital elevation model of Majuro. Attenuation of light within the water column was characterized by measuring at-sensor radiance and reflectance at different depths and calculating an attenuation coefficient. Bathymetric lidar data, collected by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office in 2006, were used to calibrate the SDB results. The bathymetric lidar yielded a strong linear relation with water depths. The Landsat 8-derived SDB estimates derived from the blue/green band ratio exhibited a water attenuation extinction depth of 6 meters with a coefficient of determination R 2 =0.9324. Estimates derived from the coastal/red band ratio had an R 2 =0.9597. At the same extinction depth, SDB estimates derived from WorldView-3 imagery exhibited an R 2 =0.9574. Because highly dynamic coastal shorelines can be affected by erosion, wetland loss, hurricanes, sea-level rise, urban development, and population growth, consistent bathymetric data are needed to better understand sensitive coastal land/water interfaces in areas subject to coastal disasters.

Majuro Atoll↗
USGS2018

Geohydrology, geochemistry, and numerical simulation of groundwater flow and land subsidence in the Bicycle Basin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

Groundwater pumping from Bicycle Groundwater Basin (referred to as Bicycle Basin) in the Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, began in 1967. From 1967 to December 2010, about 46,000 acre-feet of water had been pumped from the basin and transported to the Irwin Basin. During this time, not only did water levels in the basin decline by as much as 100 feet, the quality of the groundwater pumped from the basin also deteriorated in some wells. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from existing wells, test holes, and 16 additional monitoring wells installed at 6 sites in Bicycle Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including electrical, gravity, and seismic refraction surveys, were completed to help determine the geometry of the structural basin, delineate depths to the interface between Quaternary and Tertiary rocks, map the depth to the water table, and used to develop a geohydrologic framework and groundwater-flow model for Bicycle Basin. Water samples were used to determine the groundwater quality in the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicated that presentday precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicated that most of the groundwater in the basin was recharged prior to 1952 and had an apparent age of 15,625–39,350 years. Natural recharge to the basin was not sufficient to replenish the groundwater pumped from the basin. Interferograms from synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR), analyzed to evaluate land-surface subsidence between 1993 and 2010, showed 0.23 to 1.1 feet of subsidence during this period near one production well north of Bicycle Lake (dry) playa. A groundwater-flow model of Bicycle Basin was developed and calibrated using groundwater levels for 1964– 2010, and a subsidence model using land-surface deformation data for 1993–2010. Between January 1967 and December 2010, the simulated total recharge from precipitation runoff and underflow from adjacent basins was about 5,100 acre-feet and pumpage from the Bicycle Basin was about 47,000 acrefeet of water. Total outflows exceeded natural recharge during this period, resulting in a net loss of about 42,100 acre-feet of groundwater storage in the basin. The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering various groundwater-management options in the Bicycle Basin. The groundwater-flow model was used to (1) evaluate changes in groundwater levels and subsidence with the addition of capture and recharge of simulated runoff in retention basins (scenario 1) for predevelopment through 2010; (2) simulate a base case (scenario 2) for reference; and (3) compare projections of alternative future pumping strategies for 2011–60 (scenarios 3–5). Model results from the runoff-capture simulation (scenario 1) indicated that total recharge, including runoff captured using retention basins, locally increased water levels, which partially offset, but did not mitigate, groundwater depletion associated with pumping. Groundwater-storage depletion in scenario 1 was about 14 percent less than without runoff capture. Simulated-drawdown results in model layer 1 in the eastern part of the basin indicated that, because of the captured runoff, simulated heads were as much as 100 feet higher in December 2010 than prior to the onset of development in 1967. In contrast, simulated drawdown for model without runoff capture indicated that, without captured runoff, simulated heads for December 2010 in this area were 80–90 feet lower than during the predevelopment period. Subsidence was mitigated slightly in scenario 1 compared to without runoff capture; the largest decrease in subsidence at observation sites was about 0.07 feet.

California↗
USGS2018

Real-time streambed scour monitoring at two bridges over the Gunnison River in western Colorado, 2016–17

The Colorado Department of Transportation maintains roadways crossing over large streams and rivers where sediment transport and channel alignment changes can affect the structural stability of bridges. Structural stability during and immediately after peak streamflow can be assessed by measuring streambed scour; however, placing personnel or boats in the water during high-streamflow events using traditional methods can be difficult, hazardous, and time consuming. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Department of Transportation, installed instrumentation at two bridges in western Colorado to measure streambed elevations in real-time during snowmelt-runoff periods (May through June) in 2016 and 2017. The bridges include U.S. Highway 50 eastbound over the Gunnison River at milepost 70.0 (bridge I–04–K) and Colorado Highway 141 over the Gunnison River at milepost 153.7 (bridge I–03–A). Bridge I–04–K was outfitted with two echosounders, each mounted on the north side of pier 3. Data collected during the 2016 snowmelt runoff did not indicate scour had occurred. Data collected during 2017 snowmelt runoff indicated minor scour and fill occurred under the downstream echosounder. Bridge I–03–A was outfitted with two echosounders, each mounted on opposite sides of pier 4, at the transition of the upstream nose to the straight section of the pier wall. Data recorded during 2016 did not indicate any scour under the echosounders. Debris accumulation around the nose of the pier and under the echosounders resulted in inconsistent streambed elevation data. Data recorded during 2017 did not indicate any scour under the echosounders. Probing of the pier wall and streambed interface and underwater photographs obtained in 2016 revealed undermining along the length of the pier wall. The undermining extended side-to-side to a depth of about 2 feet. Underwater photographs were obtained again in 2017; no changes from the previous year were observed. Cross-section surveys were completed at each bridge to measure and document changes in channel geometry during the study. Surveys were performed in spring 2016 before snowmelt runoff, spring 2017 before snowmelt runoff, and fall 2017. Streambed elevations from cross-section surveys at both bridges were evaluated using two-tailed, paired t-tests and Wilcoxon rank sum tests to identify significant changes between the surveys. Both tests indicated significant changes in mean streambed elevations for the cross-sections and around the monitored piers at bridges I–04–K and I–03–A during the 2-year study.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Flood-inundation maps for the Salamonie River at Portland, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of the Salamonie River at Portland, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind. (station 03324200). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System web interface at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (site PORI3) at https:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the current (2018) stage-discharge relation at the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind., streamgage. The hydraulic model then was used to compute nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 10.7 ft or near bankfull to 18.7 ft, which equals the highest point on the streamgage rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.49-ft root mean square error and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution resampled to a 10-ft grid to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗
USGS2018

Methods used to estimate daily streamflow and water availability in the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site. Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

A comparison of hydrocarbon-related landscape disturbance patterns along the New York-Pennsylvania border, 2004–2013

Executive Summary The New York-Pennsylvania area has a long history of hydrocarbon extraction, and the addition of shale gas extraction methods contributes to landscape disturbance borne by previously developed oil and non-shale gas resources. The main unconventional extraction method used to extract shale gas from the Marcellus Shale located in New York and Pennsylvania is hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” although other conventional methods are used extensively. All forms of hydrocarbon extraction disturb the surrounding landscape to some extent, primarily in the form of land clearance and degradation, road construction, and pipeline development, although the effects of these disturbances are not fully understood. In this study, landscape-change metrics and indicators are used to analyze change in a 10-county region along the New York-Pennsylvania border—the New York counties of Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome, and the Pennsylvania counties of McKean, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, and Susquehanna. This 10-county region was selected due to the differences in policies between the States of New York and Pennsylvania. While fracking occurred extensively in Pennsylvania over the past 10 years or more, the State of New York issued a temporary moratorium against hydraulic fracturing in 2010—citing repercussions that might affect air quality, water quality, and public health—and officially banned hydraulic fracturing in June 2015. The quantification of landscape disturbance due to hydrocarbon extraction activities is presented in this report as land-use and land-cover (LULC) change between 2004 and 2013 and defined using specific disturbance categories (including well sites, roads, and pipelines) to compare the disturbances and changes, by county, on both sides of the New York-Pennsylvania border. The quantification was accomplished by gathering the signatures of disturbance from high-resolution aerial images, comparing the derived totals of disturbance, and then computing landscape metrics in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The collected data represent a summation of landscape disturbance from oil and gas development, as some of the data represented were established decades earlier. The Analytical Tools Interface for Landscape Assessments (ATtILA) software was used to calculate land-cover area and landscape metrics for each shale gas, non-shale gas, oil, and other infrastructure types associated with hydrocarbons across each county and both five-county regions in the study area. The three primary metrics used to describe changes in forest structure were (1)forest area, (2) interior forest area, and (3) forest edge area. The changes in metrics were subsequently evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Overall, the disturbed-area footprint in the Pennsylvania region is considerably larger than the disturbed-area footprint in the New York region (13,687.9 hectares [ha] in Pennsylvania; 3,840.5 ha in New York). Disturbance per site is similar, with 1.2 disturbed ha per site in New York and 1.6 disturbed ha per site in Pennsylvania. In the New York-Pennsylvania 10-county region, hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance strongly correlate with a reduction in the percentage of forest for the entire region. This observation also appears to be true in the New York five-county region for forest area. This form of disturbance in the New York five-county region shows significantly correlated changes in forest metrics (–0.4 percent total forest area), particularly in the percentage of interior forest (–1.2 percent total area) and forest edge (+0.7 percent total area). On the other hand, gas and hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance (1.0 percent total area) in the Pennsylvania five-county region strongly correlates with a total decline in forest area and agricultural land area (–0.8 percent combined total area) but not with either land-cover class separately.

New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Numerical simulation of groundwater availability in central Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i

Since the 1990s, increased chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells (much of which is used for drinking water) and the effects of withdrawals on groundwater-dependent ecosystems have led to concerns over groundwater availability on the island of Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. An improved understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals is needed to ensure effective management of the groundwater resources of Molokaʻi, plan for possible growth, and accommodate cultural, social, and economic concerns. To address the information needs of managers and community stakeholders on Molokaʻi, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical groundwater model capable of simulating salinity change and reduction in groundwater discharge in coastal areas of central and southern Molokaʻi. Estimates of groundwater recharge needed as input to the numerical groundwater model were made using a daily water budget for each decade during 1940−2012 (the period 2000−12 spanned 13 years) and the most current available data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Total island recharge during the decadal periods ranged from a low of about 189 Mgal/d during the 1970s to a high of 278 Mgal/d during the 1960s. These recharge estimates were used to develop an island-wide numerical groundwater model with simplifying assumptions (sharp interface between freshwater and saltwater; two-dimensional flow). The island-wide model provided estimates of groundwater inflows to the main area of interest simulated with a three-dimensional numerical groundwater model. Simulated withdrawal scenarios were selected in consultation with water managers and stakeholders and consisted of: (1) a baseline scenario using average recharge (1978−2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and average 2016−17 withdrawals; (2) a scenario using average recharge and withdrawals from existing wells at pending (as of January 2019) water-use permit rates; (3) six scenarios using average recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells; and (4) a scenario using reduced recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. Results of the simulated withdrawal scenarios indicate that wells may be capable of producing groundwater with chloride concentrations below 250 mg/L at withdrawal rates exceeding average 2016−17 rates. However, the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and distribution of the withdrawals. For all nonbaseline scenarios, simulated groundwater discharge to the nearshore environment is reduced relative to the baseline scenario. Areas of discharge reduction may correspond to areas used for cultural or subsistence purposes. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Molokaʻi. The model has several limitations, including its nonuniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Groundwater quality in relation to drinking water health standards and hydrogeologic and geochemical characteristics for 47 domestic wells in Potter County, Pennsylvania, 2017

As part of a regional effort to characterize groundwater in rural areas of Pennsylvania, water samples from 47 domestic wells in Potter County were collected from May through September 2017. The sampled wells had depths ranging from 33 to 600 feet in sandstone, shale, or siltstone aquifers. Groundwater samples were analyzed for physicochemical properties that could be evaluated in relation to drinking-water health standards, geology, land use, and other environmental factors. Laboratory analyses included concentrations of major ions, nutrients, bacteria, trace elements, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ethylene and propylene glycol, alcohols, gross-alpha/beta-particle activity, uranium, radon-222, and dissolved gases. A subset of samples was analyzed for radium isotopes (radium-226 and -228) and for the isotopic composition of methane. Results of this 2017 study show that groundwater quality generally met most drinking-water standards that apply to public water supplies. However, a percentage of samples exceeded maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) for total coliform bacteria (69.6 percent), Escherichia coli (30.4 percent), arsenic, and barium; and secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) for field pH, manganese, sodium, iron, total dissolved solids, aluminum, and chloride. All of the analyzed VOCs were below limits of detection and associated drinking water criteria. Radon-222 activities exceeded the proposed drinking-water standard of 300 picocuries per liter in 80.9 percent of the samples. The field pH of the groundwater ranged from 4.6 to 9.0. Generally, the lower pH samples had greater potential for elevated concentrations of dissolved metals, including beryllium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc, whereas the higher pH samples had greater potential for elevated concentrations of total dissolved solids, sodium, fluoride, boron, and uranium. Near-neutral samples (pH 6.5 to 7.5) had greater hardness and alkalinity concentrations than other samples with pH values outside this range. Calcium/bicarbonate waters were the predominant hydrochemical type for the sampled aquifers, with mixed water types for many samples, including variable contributions from calcium, magnesium, and sodium combined with bicarbonate, sulfate, chloride, and nitrate. Water from 45 wells had concentrations of methane greater than the 0.0002 milligrams per liter (mg/L) detection limit. One sample had the maximum value of 11 mg/L, which exceeds the Pennsylvania action level of 7 mg/L. Additionally, three other samples had concentrations of methane greater than 4 mg/L. Outgassing of such levels of methane from the water to air within a confined space can result in a potential hazard. The elevated concentrations of methane generally were associated with suboxic groundwater (dissolved oxygen less than 0.5 mg/L) that had near-neutral to alkaline pH with relatively elevated concentrations of iron, manganese, ammonia, lithium, fluoride, and boron. Other constituents, including barium, sodium, chloride, and bromide, commonly were elevated, but not limited to, those well-water samples with elevated methane. Low levels of ethane (as much as 1.2 mg/L) were present in eight samples with the highest methane concentrations. Five samples were analyzed for methane isotopes. The isotopic and hydrocarbon compositions in these five samples suggest the methane may be of microbial origin or a mixture of thermogenic and microbial gas, but differed from the compositions reported for mud-gas logging samples collected during drilling of gas wells. The concentrations of sodium (median 8.2 mg/L), chloride (median 7.64 mg/L), and bromide (median 0.02 mg/L) for the 47 groundwater samples collected for this study ranged widely and were positively correlated with one another and with specific conductance and associated measures of ionic strength. Sixty percent of the Potter County well-water samples had chloride concentrations less than 10 mg/L. Samples with higher chloride concentrations had variable bromide concentrations and corresponding chloride/bromide ratios that are consistent with sources such as road-deicing salt and septic effluent (low bromide) or brine (high bromide). Brines are naturally present in deeper parts of the regional groundwater system and, in some cases, may be mobilized by gas drilling. It is also possible that valley wells were drilled close to or into the brine-freshwater interface, so brine signatures do not necessarily indicate contamination due to drilling. The chloride, bromide, and other constituents in road-deicing salt or brine solutions tend to be diluted by mixing with fresh groundwater in shallow aquifers used for water supply. Although 1 of 8 groundwater samples with the highest methane concentrations (greater than 0.2 mg/L) had concentrations of chloride and bromide with corresponding chloride/bromide ratios that indicated mixing with road-deicing salt, the other 7 of 8 samples with elevated methane had concentrations of chloride and bromide with corresponding chloride/bromide ratios that indicated mixing with a small amount of brine (0.02 percent or less) similar in composition to those reported for gas and oil well brines in Pennsylvania. In several eastern Pennsylvania counties where gas drilling is absent, groundwater with comparable chloride/bromide ratios and chloride concentrations have been reported. Approximately 50 percent of Potter County well-water samples, including two samples with the fourth (72.9 mg/L) and fifth (47.0 mg/L) highest chloride concentrations, have chloride/bromide ratios that indicate predominantly anthropogenic sources of chloride, such as road-deicing salt or septic effluent.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Procedure for calculating estimated ultimate recoveries of wells in the Wolfcamp shale of the Midland Basin, Permian Basin Province, Texas

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey published an assessment of technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources of the Wolfcamp shale in the Midland Basin, Permian Basin Province, Texas. Estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) were calculated with production data from IHS Markit TM using DeclinePlus software in the Harmony interface. These EURs were a major component of the quantitative resource assessment. For five of the six assessment units in the study, an industry operator in the Midland Basin provided information that was used to differentiate the Wolfcamp horizontal well landing zones. The IHS Markit TM production database does not distinguish between the Wolfcamp A, B, C, and D well landing zones. These different units of the Wolfcamp have different production patterns that are important for calculation of EURs. The calculated mean EURs for each assessment unit ranged from 99,000 barrels of oil in the Wolfcamp C to 142,000 barrels of oil in the Wolfcamp A.

Texas↗
USGS2020

Steps taken for calculating estimated ultimate recoveries of wells in the Eagle Ford Group and associated Cenomanian–Turonian strata, U.S. Gulf Coast, Texas, 2018

In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey published an assessment of technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources of the Eagle Ford Group and associated Cenomanian–Turonian strata in the U.S. Gulf Coast of Texas. Estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) were calculated with production data from IHS Markit TM using DeclinePlus software in the Harmony interface. These EURs were a major component of the aforementioned quantitative resource assessment fact sheet. The calculated mean EURs for each oil assessment unit (AU) ranged from 113,000 barrels of oil in the Cenomanian–Turonian Mudstone Continuous Oil AU to 223,000 barrels of oil in the Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Oil AU. The calculated mean EURs for each gas AU ranged from 2.261 billion cubic feet of gas in the Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Gas AU to 3.116 billion cubic feet of gas in the Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Gas AU.

Texas↗
USGS2021

Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

The Sandy Hook Unit, Gateway National Recreation Area (hereafter Sandy Hook) in New Jersey is a 10-kilometer-long spit visited by thousands of people each year who take advantage of the historical and natural resources and recreational opportunities. The historical and natural resources are threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation and groundwater recharge, and changes in the frequency and severity of coastal storms. Fresh groundwater resources are important to the ecosystems of Sandy Hook. The Bayside Holly Forest, one of only two known old-growth American holly ( Ilex opaca ) maritime forests, is particularly vulnerable to global climate change because of the proximity of the water table to land surface in low-lying areas and the potential for saltwater intrusion and inundation. The shallow groundwater-flow system on Sandy Hook is dominated by recharge from precipitation, fresh groundwater discharge to evapotranspiration (ET), discharge to surface seeps, and submarine groundwater discharge (groundwater discharging directly to the ocean). A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates the shallow groundwater-flow system and interaction with surrounding saltwater boundaries was constructed to simulate multi-density groundwater flow, treating the freshwater/saltwater transition zone as a sharp interface that represents the half-seawater surface. Groundwater-flow simulations completed for this study include a Baseline scenario, three SLR scenarios (0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 meter [m]), two Recharge scenarios—a 10-percent Increased Recharge scenario and a 10-percent Decreased Recharge scenario—and a scenario with 0.6 m of SLR and 10-percent increase in recharge. The Recharge scenarios indicate the system is not sensitive to a 10-percent increase or decrease in recharge from the Baseline scenario. In the SLR scenarios, SLR causes the water table to rise, resulting in increased fresh groundwater discharge to ET and seeps, and reduced submarine discharge compared to the Baseline scenario. The increased discharge to ET and seeps causes the magnitude of water-table rise to be less than that of SLR, which in turn causes the thickness of the freshwater lens to thin, reducing the depth to the half-seawater surface. Water-table rise associated with SLR diminishes the thickness of the unsaturated zone; comparing the Baseline and the 0.6-m SLR scenarios, the area where the simulated water table is above land surface increases by 50.6 hectares, from about 0.9 to 7.4 percent of the land area of Sandy Hook. Areas where the simulated water table is above land surface are likely to be emergent wetlands and contain freshwater if they are tens of meters or more from the shoreline. The steady-state simulations indicate that the percentage of land where the half-seawater surface is less than 9 m below the water table increases from about 2.5 percent (20 hectares) to about 9 percent (74 hectares) with 0.6 m of SLR. In low-lying areas close to the Sandy Hook Bay shoreline, the half-seawater surface is simulated to be as much as 20 m closer to the water table with SLR of 0.6 m. Transient salinization, if any, of shallow groundwater from increased frequency or severity of storm-driven inundation is not included in the analysis. Natural resources on Sandy Hook, particularly the Bayside Holly Forest, may be adversely affected by the rising water table associated with SLR. Freshwater emergent wetlands may increase in area at the expense of other ecosystem assemblages occurring in or on the edges of low-lying enclosed depressions. Cultural resources close to the water table, such as existing basements of structures, may be adversely affected.

New Jersey↗
USGS2021

Characterization of groundwater quality and discharge with emphasis on selenium in an irrigated agricultural drainage near Delta, Colorado, 2017–19

Selenium is a water-quality constituent of concern for aquatic ecosystems in the lower Gunnison River Basin. Selenium is derived from bedrock of the Mancos Shale and is mobilized and transported to groundwater and surface water by application of irrigation water. Although it is recognized that groundwater contributes an appreciable amount of selenium to surface water, few studies have addressed interactions between the two. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board conducted a study during 2017–19 to characterize the quality and quantity of groundwater discharging to an agricultural drainage near Delta, Colorado, locally known as Sunflower Drain. Water quality in the study area is characterized by high dissolved solids with elevated concentrations of selenium and nitrate resulting from dissolution of soluble salts in the Mancos Shale. Selenium concentrations have decreased by 50 percent since the early 2000s, possibly in response to irrigation system improvements. Stable water isotopes indicate streamflow is dominated by canal water during the irrigation season (April to October) and, during the nonirrigation season (November to March), is dominated by groundwater that has undergone some degree of evaporation. Pesticide and pharmaceutical compounds were infrequently detected, and results indicate they were derived from sources outside the study area such that they do not appear to be useful as tracers of groundwater sources. Stable isotopes of nitrate indicate that nitrate originates from the Mancos Shale, and the isotopic composition is enriched by denitrification in the groundwater system. Using a mass-balance approach, estimated groundwater discharge rates to Sunflower Drain ranged from 0.15 to 0.27 cubic feet per second per mile with one losing reach identified. Selenium, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater estimated by mass-balance calculations were similar to concentrations measured in the Poly 17 observation well, located in a largely irrigated area in east tributary. One tributary reach had higher concentrations of selenium, sulfate, and nitrate likely reflecting localized inputs of more concentrated groundwater, similar to the concentrations in the Poly 7 observation well, which is downgradient from a residential area in the west tributary. Three pilot studies were conducted, including fiber optic distributed temperature sensing to detect groundwater discharge zones in the stream channel, a passive seismic technique to estimate depth to bedrock, and use of radon-222 as a geochemical tracer of groundwater discharge. All three techniques show promise as additional approaches for investigating groundwater discharge surface-water systems in irrigated drainage areas on Mancos Shale. The factors that affect groundwater movement mainly include when and where irrigation water is transported and applied, and the distribution of bedrock of the Mancos Shale and overlying alluvial deposits. The average groundwater recharge rate for the study area was estimated at 8.1 inches per year, based on mass balance calculations from synoptic survey data. Along the western tributary of Sunflower Drain, there was evidence that spills from the East Canal may recharge the groundwater aquifer adjacent to the stream channel. Groundwater movement to the stream channel may be controlled by the topography of the alluvial/bedrock interface or focused along human-made features, such as tile drains and ditches constructed around irrigated fields. On larger scales, the top of bedrock was also important, creating a topographic constriction that caused a zone of groundwater discharge. The groundwater system is complex, and further study could better define the system, possibly through application of a groundwater flow model and more extensive studies using some of the exploratory methods evaluated in this study.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Assessment of water availability in the Osage Nation using an integrated hydrologic-flow model

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, covers about 2,900 square miles. The area is primarily rural with 62 percent of the land being native prairie grass, and much of the area is used for cattle ranching and extraction of petroleum and natural gas. Protection of water rights are important to the Osage Nation because of its reliance on cattle ranching and the potential for impairment of water quality by petroleum extraction. Additionally, the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area further the need for the Osage Nation to better understand its water availability. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, completed a hydrologic investigation to assess the status and availability of surface-water and groundwater resources in the Osage Nation. A transient integrated hydrologic-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey fully integrated hydrologic-flow model called the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. The integrated hydrologic-flow model, called the Osage Nation Integrated Hydrologic Model (ONIHM), was constructed and uses an orthogonal grid of 276 rows and 289 columns, and each grid cell measures 1,312.34 feet (ft; 400 meters) per side, with eight variably thick vertical layers that represented the alluvial and bedrock aquifers within the study area, including the alluvial aquifer, the Vamoosa-Ada aquifer, and the minor Pennsylvanian bedrock aquifers, and the confining units. Landscape and groundwater-flow processes were simulated for two periods: (1) the 1950–2014 period from January 1950 through September 2014 and (2) the forecast period from October 2014 through December 2099. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated past conditions using measured or estimated inputs, and the forecast-period ONIHM simulated three separate potential forecast conditions under constant dry, average, or wet climate conditions using calibrated input values from the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated by linking the Parameter Estimation software (PEST) with the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. PEST uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify the best set of parameter values to minimize the difference between measured or estimated calibration targets and their simulated equivalent values (residuals). Tikhonov regularization and singular-value decomposition-assist features of PEST were used during the calibration process. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated to 713 measured groundwater levels at 195 wells; 95,636 estimated monthly mean groundwater levels at 124 wells; 5,307 measured streamflows at 13 streamgages; and 8,679 simulated mean monthly streamflows at 10 streamgages extracted from a surface-water model by adjusting 231 parameters. The estimated groundwater-level observations and streamflows were included as observations to improve the spatial and temporal density of observation targets during calibration. The best set of parameter values obtained during the calibration process of the 1950–2014 model was then used as the input parameter values for the forecast model simulations. A comparison of the calibration targets to their corresponding simulated values indicated that the model adequately reproduced streamflows and groundwater levels for some streamgages and wells and underestimated streamflows and groundwater levels at other locations. Measured and simulated streamflows correlated adequately with a coefficient of determination of 0.938, as did water levels with a coefficient of determination of 0.795. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM underestimated certain groundwater levels and streamflows, but generally measured or estimated calibration targets correlated well with simulated equivalents, which indicated that the model can adequately simulate the response of the hydrologic system to stresses in the 1950–2014 and forecast periods. In the 1950–2014 period ONIHM, the calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity for layer 1 alluvial aquifer was 30.7 feet per day, and the seven lower layers had a calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity of less than 3.3 feet per day. The mean calibrated groundwater-level residual was 16.6 ft, and the mean calibrated streamflow residual of the Arkansas River at Ralston, Oklahoma, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07152500) was within 6 percent (373 cubic feet per second) of mean measured streamflow for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The ONIHM simulated landscape fluxes of precipitation; groundwater applied by irrigation wells; evapotranspiration from precipitation, groundwater, and irrigation; runoff from precipitation; and deep percolation from precipitation. The largest loss of water from the landscape was evapotranspiration from precipitation with a calibrated mean annual outflow of 32 inches (in.): mean annual precipitation was about 36 in. Calibrated mean annual runoff and deep percolation (recharge to the water table) rates were 4.7 inches per year (in/yr) and 0.70 in/yr, respectively, for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM groundwater fluxes included net farm net recharge (calculated as the difference between the inflow of recharge to the water table and the outflow of evapotranspiration from the water table such that negative values indicate that evapotranspiration from the water table was greater than deep percolation [recharge to the water table] and vice versa). Net farm net recharge was the largest flux from the groundwater system with a mean annual net outflow of 153.4 cubic feet per second. Stream leakage was the largest flux to the groundwater system with a mean annual net inflow of 152.5 cubic feet per second, indicating that, on average, the groundwater/surface-water interaction was a “losing” system where stream water leaked into the subsurface and recharged the water table. Simulated monthly trends demonstrated that net stream leakage was the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system for 10 of the 12 months; for the other 2 months (January and March), farm net recharge (January) and net storage (March) were the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system. A saline groundwater interface map was created for the study and compared to the water levels from the final stress period of the 1950–2014 model to identify the presence of fresh/marginal groundwater throughout the study area. Fresh/marginal groundwater was characterized as groundwater with less than 1,500 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids. Fresh/marginal groundwater thickness ranged from 0 to 438.2 ft within the study area. The thickest regions of fresh/marginal groundwater were in the eastern part of the study area near Sand Creek, Bird Creek, and Hominy Creek and in the Arkansas River alluvial aquifer in the region downstream from the Arkansas River at Ralston, Okla. Like the 1950–2014 model, forecast model results for the landscape indicated that transpiration from precipitation was the largest flux out of the landscape for all three forecasts, constituting 77, 73, and 58 percent of precipitation for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. The dry and average forecast landscape fluxes demonstrated similar trends and magnitudes, whereas the wet forecast landscape fluxes indicated the largest changes compared to the average forecast fluxes. Most notably, runoff increased from a mean of 1.1 and 1.6 in/yr for the dry and average forecasts, respectively, to 10 in/yr for the wet forecast. Similar changes occurred for the other wet forecast landscape fluxes. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated three forecasts to assess the effects of potential climatic changes on the hydrologic system from October 2014 to December 2099. The three forecasts simulated theoretical dry, average, and wet conditions using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets from selected years in the calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM. Annual precipitation amounts were 26.89, 35.47, and 50.73 in. for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. Groundwater-flow component forecast results indicated that stream leakage is always a net inflow to the groundwater-flow system for dry, average, and wet conditions, meaning the study area stream network is always predominantly a “losing” regime where stream water infiltrates into the underlying aquifer. Storage was only a net outflow from the groundwater-flow system and indicated a replenishment to groundwater storage that resulted in an increase in groundwater levels only during the wet forecast. Further, these gains in groundwater storage for the wet forecast occurred only during February through June. Mean fresh/marginal groundwater saturated thicknesses were 125 and 126 ft for the dry and average forecast conditions, respectively, and wet forecast average thickness was 145 ft and ranged from 0 to 443 ft. The spatial extents of fresh/marginal groundwater at the end of the dry, average, and wet forecast model periods (December 2099) did not change substantially from the end of the 1950–2014 model period (September 2014).

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗