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Both Landsat- and LiDAR-derived measures predict forest bee response to large-scale wildfire

Large-scale disturbances such as wildfire can have profound impacts on the composition, structure, and functioning of ecosystems. Bees are critical pollinators in natural settings and often respond positively to wildfires, particularly in forests where wildfire leads to more open conditions and increased floral resources. The use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) provides opportunities for quantifying habitat features across large spatial scales and is increasingly available to scientists and land managers for post-fire habitat assessment. We evaluated the extent to which LiDAR-derived forest structure measurements can predict forest bee communities after a large, mixed-severity fire. We hypothesized that LiDAR measurements linked to post-fire forest structure would improve our ability to predict bee abundance and species richness when compared to satellite-based maps of burn severity. To test this hypothesis, we sampled wild bee communities within the Douglas Fire Complex in southwestern Oregon, USA. We then used LiDAR and Landsat data to quantify forest structure and burn severity, respectively, across bee sampling locations. We found that the LiDAR forest structure model was the best predictor of abundance, whereas the Landsat burn severity model had better predictive ability for species richness. Furthermore, the Landsat burn severity model was better at predicting the presence and species richness of bumble bees (Bombus spp.), an ecologically distinct and economically important group within the Pacific Northwest. We posit that the divergent responses of the two modeling approaches are due to distinct responses by bee taxa to variation in forest structure as mediated by wildfire, with bumble bees in particular depending on closed-canopy forest for some portions of their life cycle. Our study demonstrates that LiDAR data can provide information regarding the drivers of bee abundance in post-wildfire conifer forest, and that both remote sensing approaches are useful for predicting components of wild bee diversity after large-scale wildfire.

Oregon↗

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) and prairie rivers

Background Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008–2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one ‘natural’ study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment. Results High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0%) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation). Conclusions We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Nebraska↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (“spring rises”), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16–18 °C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri–Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June–July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36–39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗

Improving spatio-temporal benefit transfers for pest control by generalist predators in cotton in the southwestern U.S.

Given rapid changes in agricultural practice, it is critical to understand how alterations in ecological, technological, and economic conditions over time and space impact ecosystem services in agroecosystems. Here, we present a benefit transfer approach to quantify cotton pest-control services provided by a generalist predator, the Mexican free-tailed bat ( Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana ), in the southwestern United States. We show that pest-control estimates derived using (1) a compound spatial – temporal model – which incorporates spatial and temporal variability in crop pest-control service values – are likely to exhibit less error than those derived using (2) a simple-spatial model (i.e., a model that extrapolates values derived for one area directly, without adjustment, to other areas) or (3) a simple-temporal model (i.e., a model that extrapolates data from a few points in time over longer time periods). Using our compound spatial–temporal approach, the annualized pest-control value was \$12.2 million, in contrast to an estimate of \$70.1 million (5.7 times greater), obtained from the simple-spatial approach. Using estimates from one year (simple-temporal approach) revealed large value differences (0.4 times smaller to 2 times greater). Finally, we present a detailed protocol for valuing pest-control services, which can be used to develop robust pest-control transfer functions for generalist predators in agroecosystems.

Arizona, California, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma,↗

Plant water-use strategies predict restoration success across degraded drylands

Plant strategies for coping with water limitation are likely to mediate restoration outcomes in degraded dryland ecosystems. Trade-offs in traits related to water acquisition and use can intensify in more arid environments, making their effects on dryland restoration success even more salient. However, isolating the effects of drought responses from those of other environmental factors, as well as identifying the specific drought resistance traits that influence restoration success, can be difficult. In the present study, we couple a controlled dry-down experiment with a cross-site restoration field trial of out-planted seedlings (RestoreNet) using a suite of dryland herbaceous plant species from the same seed sources. We quantified interspecific variation in physiological responses to drought, specifically reductions in stomatal conductance ( g s ) and stem water potential (SWP), by comparing well-watered control plants to those experiencing decreasing soil moisture. Drought responses of SWP and g s varied independently among species, but both were related to survival in the cross-site restoration field trial when effect sizes were aggregated across all sites. Responses were consistent with acquisitive water-use strategies resulting in greater success, where species with greater declines in SWP or weaker declines in g s under drought had greater survival. The correlation between SWP drought response and survival also intensified in sites with lower accumulated precipitation following restoration. Differences among functional groups revealed two different paths to restoration success: forbs that maintain high g s and narrow safety margins to maximize exploitation of moisture pulses before going into drought dormancy, or C 4 grasses that maintain efficient water uptake in drying soils while risking cavitation. C 3 grass species varied between these two strategies. Synthesis and applications . Taken together, the results of this study and others conducted at RestoreNet sites indicate that while a diversity of physiological responses to drought may exist in dryland plant communities, successfully restoring herbaceous species through out-planting in degraded conditions is likely to be achieved with species that maximize water uptake via one of two strategies, with tolerance of low SWP being particularly important in the most arid settings.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Book↗

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Dissertation Abstracts International↗

Denning chronology and design of effective bear management units

Reports on the effectiveness of using late fall hunting seasons to reduce the proportion of female black bears (Ursus americanus) in the harvest are limited, and the geographic scale over which the technique functions as intended has not been examined. During 1992-2000, we radio-equipped black bears in New Mexico, USA, obtained estimates of 175 den entry and 137 den emergence dates, and used New Mexico Department of Game and Fish harvest data (1985-2000) to test for differences in proportion of females in the harvest relative to denning chronology. Bears in northern New Mexico entered dens earlier and emerged later than bears in southern New Mexico (P ??? 0.001). In northern New Mexico bears displayed the typical pattern of earlier entry and later emergence by reproductive females, proportion of females in the harvest varied over time as expected, and late fall seasons were effective (P ??? 0.10). In contrast, denning chronology did not differ by sex in southern New Mexico, proportion of females in the harvest did not change over time, and late fall seasons were not effective (P ??? 0.18). Manipulation of hunting season dates to influence female mortality can be an effective tool, however our study provides an example of an area where denning chronology did not differ by sex and late seasons were not effective. We also observed regional differences in timing of entrance and emergence, which suggest that scale of application may be key. In management jurisdictions that encompass ecologically distinct areas, cover a wide range of latitudes, or are mountainous, successful use of the technique may depend on knowledge of denning chronology at multiple locations and appropriate designation of hunting unit boundaries, season dates, and data analysis units.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Drought in the U.S. Caribbean: Impacts to freshwater ecosystems

Healthy and functioning freshwater ecosystems are needed for successful conservation and management of native fish and invertebrate species, and the services they provide to human communities, across the U.S. Caribbean. Yet streams, rivers, and reservoirs are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events, urbanization, energy and water development, and other environmental and human-caused disturbances (Neal et al., 2009). One major management concern is the impact of prolonged drought on freshwater ecosystems. Drought impacts streamflow, dissolved oxygen content, water quality, stream connectivity, available habitat, and other important freshwater habitat characteristics necessary for sustaining fish and invertebrate populations (Covich et al., 2006). These changes can impact species interactions, abundance, life history events, and the presence of native and non-native species (Larsen, 2000; Covich et al., 2006; Ramírez et al., 2018). Drought impacts aquatic ecosystems and species both in the short-term and long-term, depending on the severity and duration of the event (e.g. Covich et al., 2006 ). In Puerto Rico, all native freshwater fish, shrimp, and snail species spend part of their lives in estuarine and marine ecosystems and depend on being able to move between these habitats to survive, so maintaining connectivity is key (e.g., Engman et al., 2017 ). Freshwater ecosystems also provide recreational, cultural, and ecological value to humans ( Kwak et al., 2007 ; Neal et al., 2009 ). For example, some communities in Puerto Rico engage in artisanal shrimp and freshwater crab fishing ( Neal et al., 2009 ). Artisanal fishing for postlarvae gobioids, known colloquially as “cetí” also occurs at the river mouths of large drainages and has strong cultural significance in parts of Puerto Rico, such as Arecibo (Kwak et al., 2016). The U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) is particularly sensitive to drought, because almost all streams are ephemeral and typically only flow after rainfall. These intermittent channels, known locally as “ghuts”, run down the surface of steep slopes, rather than through the ground, and are important sources of freshwater. Natural springs are often located in ghuts and can form pools of freshwater that serve as habitat for wetland and migratory birds, freshwater shrimp and fish, and amphibians ( Nemeth and Platenburg, 2007 ; Gardner, 2008 ).

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Washington↗

How to increase the supply of native seed to improve restoration success: The US native seed development process

With the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, restoration of damaged ecosystems is turning into a global movement. Restoration actions that are not based on science and an understanding of ecosystem function can thwart desired restoration outcomes at best and cause further damage to ecosystems at worst. Restoration often includes revegetation using seed. Where we source seed for restoration can make a difference for species establishment, restoration outcomes, and recovery of ecosystem function. However, sourcing seeds of native species, let alone genetically appropriate seed, is not currently possible for many restoration projects. The process of increasing and sourcing suitable seed for restoration includes many steps that need to be addressed typically years before a restoration project is initiated. These steps of seed collection, evaluation and development, field establishment, production, certification and procurement, storage, and finally restoration, need to be considered ideally at a scale larger than individual restoration projects and with research conducted in each step. We describe these steps as implemented in the United States, the challenges therein, and provide suggestions and examples of how groups can make efficient and effective progress toward getting the right seed in the right place at the right time.

Restoration Ecology↗

Estimating landscape resistance to dispersal

Dispersal is an inherently spatial process that can be affected by habitat conditions in sites encountered by dispersers. Understanding landscape resistance to dispersal is important in connectivity studies and reserve design, but most existing methods use resistance functions with cost parameters that are subjectively chosen by the investigator. We develop an analytic approach allowing for direct estimation of resistance parameters that folds least cost path methods typically used in simulation approaches into a formal statistical model of dispersal distributions. The core of our model is a frequency distribution of dispersal distances expressed as least cost distance rather than Euclidean distance, and which includes terms for feature-specific costs to dispersal and sex (or other traits) of the disperser. The model requires only origin and settlement locations for multiple individuals, such as might be obtained from mark–recapture studies or parentage analyses, and maps of the relevant habitat features. To evaluate whether the model can estimate parameters correctly, we fit our model to data from simulated dispersers in three kinds of landscapes (in which resistance of environmental variables was categorical, continuous with a patchy configuration, or continuous in a trend pattern). We found maximum likelihood estimators of resistance and individual trait parameters to be approximately unbiased with moderate sample sizes. We applied the model to a small grizzly bear dataset to demonstrate how this approach could be used when the primary interest is in the prediction of costs and found that estimates were consistent with expectations based on bear ecology. Our method has important practical applications for testing hypotheses about dispersal ecology and can be used to inform connectivity planning efforts, via the resistance estimates and confidence intervals, which can be used to create a data-driven resistance surface.

Landscape Ecology↗

U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 2011 report of selected wildlife diseases

The National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) was founded in 1975 to provide technical assistance in identifying, controlling, and preventing wildlife losses from diseases, conduct research to understand the impact of diseases on wildlife populations, and devise methods to more effectively manage these disease threats. The impetus behind the creation of the NWHC was, in part, the catastrophic loss of tens of thousands of waterfowl as a result of an outbreak of duck plague at the Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge in South Dakota during January 1973. In 1996, the NWHC, along with other Department of Interior research functions, was transferred from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), where we remain one of many entities that provide the independent science that forms the bases of the sound management of the Nation’s natural resources. Our mission is to provide national leadership to safeguard wildlife and ecosystem health through dynamic partnerships and exceptional science. The main campus of the NWHC is located in Madison, Wis., where we maintain biological safety level 3 (BSL–3) diagnostic and research facilities purposefully designed for work with wildlife species. The NWHC provides research and technical assistance on wildlife health issues to State, Federal, and international agencies. In addition, since 1992 we have maintained a field station in Hawaii, the Honolulu Field Station, which focuses on marine and terrestrial natural resources throughout the Pacific region. The NWHC conducts diagnostic investigations of unusual wildlife morbidity and mortality events nationwide to detect the presence of wildlife pathogens and determine the cause of death. This is also an important activity for detecting new, emerging and resurging diseases. The NWHC provides this crucial information on the presence of wildlife diseases to wildlife managers to support sound management decisions. The data and information generated also allows for further indepth analyses for determining the biological and ecological significance of disease events, detecting disease trends over time and space, as well as detecting any significant changes to how diseases manifest in the field. Moreover, this information allows us to gain insight into the significance of future wildlife disease events. The purpose of this report is to provide a sample of NWHC data that are available from our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS). These data are presented in summary format with minimal statistical analysis and interpretation. The goal is to share these data with wildlife managers and other stakeholders, promote the use of NHWC data, and encourage the sharing of wildlife disease data to improve temporal and geographic surveillance coverage. Continued national surveillance for wildlife diseases is essential for providing early detection and warning of events that have the potential to result in harm to human health, economic losses, declines in wildlife populations, and subsequent ecological disturbances. Increased collaboration, coordination, and sharing of surveillance data will enhance this Nation’s ability to detect and respond to wildlife disease threats.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Using GIS and Google Earth for the creation of the Going-to-the-Sun Road Avalanche Atlas, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Snow avalanche paths are key geomorphologic features in Glacier National Park, Montana, and an important component of mountain ecosystems: they are isolated within a larger ecosystem, they are continuously disturbed, and they contain unique physical characteristics (Malanson and Butler, 1984). Avalanches impact subalpine forest structure and function, as well as overall biodiversity (Bebi et al., 2009). Because avalanches are dynamic phenomena, avalanche path geometry and spatial extent depend upon climatic regimes. The USGS/GNP Avalanche Program formally began in 2003 as an avalanche forecasting program for the spring opening of the ever-popular Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR), which crosses through 37 identified avalanche paths. Avalanche safety and forecasting is a necessary part of the GTSR spring opening procedures. An avalanche atlas detailing topographic parameters and oblique photographs was completed for the GTSR corridor in response to a request from GNP personnel for planning and resource management. Using ArcMap 9.2 GIS software, polygons were created for every avalanche path affecting the GTSR using aerial imagery, field-based observations, and GPS measurements of sub-meter accuracy. Spatial attributes for each path were derived within the GIS. Resulting products include an avalanche atlas book for operational use, a geoPDF of the atlas, and a Google Earth flyover illustrating each path and associated photographs. The avalanche atlas aids park management in worker safety, infrastructure planning, and natural resource protection by identifying avalanche path patterns and location. The atlas was created for operational and planning purposes and is also used as a foundation for research such as avalanche ecology projects and avalanche path runout modeling.

Conference Paper↗

The effect of call libraries and acoustic filters on the identification of bat echolocation

Quantitative methods for species identification are commonly used in acoustic surveys for animals. While various identification models have been studied extensively, there has been little study of methods for selecting calls prior to modeling or methods for validating results after modeling. We obtained two call libraries with a combined 1556 pulse sequences from 11 North American bat species. We used four acoustic filters to automatically select and quantify bat calls from the combined library. For each filter, we trained a species identification model (a quadratic discriminant function analysis) and compared the classification ability of the models. In a separate analysis, we trained a classification model using just one call library. We then compared a conventional model assessment that used the training library against an alternative approach that used the second library. We found that filters differed in the share of known pulse sequences that were selected (68 to 96%), the share of non-bat noises that were excluded (37 to 100%), their measurement of various pulse parameters, and their overall correct classification rate (41% to 85%). Although the top two filters did not differ significantly in overall correct classification rate (85% and 83%), rates differed significantly for some bat species. In our assessment of call libraries, overall correct classification rates were significantly lower (15% to 23% lower) when tested on the second call library instead of the training library. Well-designed filters obviated the need for subjective and time-consuming manual selection of pulses. Accordingly, researchers should carefully design and test filters and include adequate descriptions in publications. Our results also indicate that it may not be possible to extend inferences about model accuracy beyond the training library. If so, the accuracy of acoustic-only surveys may be lower than commonly reported, which could affect ecological understanding or management decisions based on acoustic surveys.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Implications of hydrologic variability on the succession of plants in Great Lakes wetlands

Primary succession of plant communities directed toward a climax is not a typical occurrence in wetlands because these ecological systems are inherently dependent on hydrology, and temporal hydrologic variability often causes reversals or setbacks in succession. Wetlands of the Great Lakes provide good examples for demonstrating the implications of hydrology in driving successional processes and for illustrating potential misinterpretations of apparent successional sequences. Most Great Lakes coastal wetlands follow cyclic patterns in which emergent communities are reduced in area or eliminated by high lake levels and then regenerated from the seed bank during low lake levels. Thus, succession never proceeds for long. Wetlands also develop in ridge and swale terrains in many large embayments of the Great Lakes. These formations contain sequences of wetlands of similar origin but different age that can be several thousand years old, with older wetlands always further from the lake. Analyses of plant communities across a sequence of wetlands at the south end of Lake Michigan showed an apparent successional pattern from submersed to floating to emergent plants as water depth decreased with wetland age. However, paleoecological analyses showed that the observed vegetation changes were driven largely by disturbances associated with increased human settlement in the area. Climate-induced hydrologic changes were also shown to have greater effects on plant-community change than autogenic processes. Other terms, such as zonation, maturation, fluctuations, continuum concept, functional guilds, centrifugal organization, pulse stability, and hump-back models provide additional means of describing organization and changes in vegetation; some of them overlap with succession in describing vegetation processes in Great Lakes wetlands, but each must be used in the proper context with regard to short- and long-term hydrologic variability.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗

Estimating trend precision and power to detect trends across grouped count data

Ecologists commonly use grouped or clustered count data to estimate temporal trends in counts, abundance indices, or abundance. For example, the U.S. Breeding Bird Survey data represent multiple counts of birds from within each of multiple, spatially defined routes. Despite a reliance on grouped counts, analytical methods for prospectively estimating precision of trend estimates or statistical power to detect trends that explicitly acknowledge the characteristics of grouped count data are undescribed. These characteristics include the fact that the sampling variance is an increasing function of the mean, and that sampling and group-level variance estimates are generally estimated on different scales (the sampling and log scales, respectively). We address these issues for repeated sampling of a single population using an analytical approach that has the flavor of a generalized linear mixed model, specifically that of a negative binomial-distributed count variable with random group effects. The count mean, including grand intercept, trend, and random group effects, is modeled linearly on the log scale, while sampling variance of the mean is estimated on the log scale via the delta method. Results compared favorably with those derived using Monte Carlo simulations. For example, at trend = 5% per temporal unit, differences in standard errors and in power were modest relative to those estimated by simulation (???|11|% and ???|16|%, respectively), with relative differences among power estimates decreasing to ???|7|% when power estimated by simulations was ???0.50. Similar findings were obtained using data from nine surveys of fingernail clams in the Mississippi River. The proposed method is suggested (1) where simulations are not practical and relative precision or power is desired, or (2) when multiple precision or power calculations are required and where the accuracy of a fraction of those calculations will be confirmed using simulations. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗