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At least 1,513 records · Page 84Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Preliminary preview for a geographic and monitoring program project; a review of point source-nonpoint source effluent trading/offset systems in watersheds

Watershed-based trading and offset systems are being developed to improve policy-maker?s and regulator?s ability to assess nonpoint source impacts in watersheds and to evaluate the efficacy of using market-incentive programs for preserving environmental quality. An overview of the history of successful and failed trading programs throughout the United States suggests that certain political, economic, and scientific conditions within a temporal and spatial setting help meet water quality standards. The current lack of spontaneous trading among dischargers does not mean that a marketable permit trading system is an inherently inefficient regulatory approach. Rather, its infrequent use is the result of institutional and informational barriers. Improving and refining the earth science information and technologies may help determine whether trading is a suitable policy for improving water quality. However, it is debatable whether or not environmental information is the limiting factor. This paper reviews additional factors affecting the potential for instituting a trading policy. The motivation for investigating and reviewing the history of offsets and trading was inspired by a project in the preliminary stages being developed by U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center and the Environmental Protection Agency Region IX. An offset feasibility study will be an integrated, map-based approach that incorporates environmental, economic, and statistical information to investigate the potential for using offsets to meet mercury Total Maximum Daily Loads in the Sacramento River watershed. A regional water-quality offset program is being studied that may help known point sources reduce mercury loading more cost effectively by the remediation of abandoned mines or other diffuse sources as opposed to more costly treatment at their own sites. An efficient offset program requires both a scientific basis and methods to translate that science into a regulatory decision framework.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Plenary: Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA

Landslide hazard assessment at local and regional scales contributes to mitigation of landslides in developing and densely populated areas by providing information for (1) land development and redevelopment plans and regulations, (2) emergency preparedness plans, and (3) economic analysis to (a) set priorities for engineered mitigation projects and (b) define areas of similar levels of hazard for insurance purposes. US Geological Survey (USGS) research on landslide hazard assessment has explored a range of methods that can be used to estimate temporal and spatial landslide potential and probability for various scales and purposes. Cases taken primarily from our work in the U.S. Pacific Northwest illustrate and compare a sampling of methods, approaches, and progress. For example, landform mapping using high-resolution topographic data resulted in identification of about four times more landslides in Seattle, Washington, than previous efforts using aerial photography. Susceptibility classes based on the landforms captured 93 % of all historical landslides (all types) throughout the city. A deterministic model for rainfall infiltration and shallow landslide initiation, TRIGRS, was able to identify locations of 92 % of historical shallow landslides in southwest Seattle. The potentially unstable areas identified by TRIGRS occupied only 26 % of the slope areas steeper than 20°. Addition of an unsaturated infiltration model to TRIGRS expands the applicability of the model to areas of highly permeable soils. Replacement of the single cell, 1D factor of safety with a simple 3D method of columns improves accuracy of factor of safety predictions for both saturated and unsaturated infiltration models. A 3D deterministic model for large, deep landslides, SCOOPS, combined with a three-dimensional model for groundwater flow, successfully predicted instability in steep areas of permeable outwash sand and topographic reentrants. These locations are consistent with locations of large, deep, historically active landslides. For an area in Seattle, a composite of the three maps illustrates how maps produced by different approaches might be combined to assess overall landslide potential. Examples from Oregon, USA, illustrate how landform mapping and deterministic analysis for shallow landslide potential have been adapted into standardized methods for efficiently producing detailed landslide inventory and shallow landslide susceptibility maps that have consistent content and format statewide.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1903

The Carboniferous formations and faunas of Colorado

In the following pages the geology and paleontology of the Carboniferous rocks of Colorado are discussed from the viewpoint of the stratigraphic paleontologist. This viewpoint is also that of one not personally acquainted with the field in question, except in very small measure. I made or assisted in making a few collections of fossils, and enjoyed the privilege of being connected for a month with a field party under the charge of Mr. Whitman Cross during the season of 1900. Most of the extensive collections which I have studied are the work of others, and the strata, in their characters and mutual attitudes, have been viewed only through the pages of geologic reports. The tendencies of my work are almost exclusively toward the historical geology, for from the nature of the case, even had I wished, it would have been difficult to dear with the structural or economic phases of the subject.

Colorado↗
USGS1976

Fluid-Inclusion Petrology - Data from Porphyry Copper Deposits and Applications to Exploration

Fluid-inclusion studies of 37 porphyry copper deposits, mainly in the United States, demonstrate that all but 3 evolved through a hydrothermal stage characterized by very high salinities, generally in excess of about 35 weight percent NaCI equivalent. Temperatures of these fluids ranged from about 250 deg to 700 deg C for various stages and deposits. Most systems boiled. High salinities, shown by halite-bearing inclusions, and boiling, suggested by coexisting gas and liquid-rich inclusions, are considered to be diagnostic of epizonal intrusions which are the most favorable parents for porphyry copper mineralization. Depth of emplacement of many copper-bearing stocks is deduced from fluid inclusions to have been about 6,000 to 10,000 feet (1,800 to 3,000 metres); fluid pressures during mineralization are interpreted generally to be less than 500 bars. Moderate-salinity (less than about 12 percent) and moderate-temperature <350 deg C) fluids are noted in all porphyry copper deposits and were responsible for the deposition of most copper and molybdenum in deposits, such as Bagdad, Esperanza, Mineral Park, Morenci, Ray, Sierrita, in the Southwestern United States and several in southern British Columbia. However, with only three exceptions, highly saline fluids apparently were present at an early stage and also deposited metals. The relative amounts and economic importance of copper and molybdenum deposited from high- and moderate-salinity fluids varies within the porphyry deposit class. There is compelling geologic and geochemical evidence that chloride is important for transport of metals, but the porphyry coppers stand out as a class associated with fluids of especially high salinity during at least one stage of their formation. Halite cubes in fluid inclusions are an effective, although rough, indicator of those salinities and can be conveniently monitored during petrographic study of thin sections. Thus, fluid inclusions can be used to characterize favorable intrusions, metal anomalies, and caprocks as an additional method of detecting possible disseminated porphyry copper metallization. The presence of halite-bearing inclusions, especially coexisting with gas-rich inclusions, is considered to be a favorable fluid anomaly in the search for porphyry ore.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2014

Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services: An application of ARIES to the San Pedro River basin, USA

A large body of research exists that identifies and values ecosystem services - the benefits that ecosystems provide to humans (MA, 2005) - and their underlying ecological processes. However, the development of software decision support tools that integrate ecology, economics and geography that can be independently used within the public, private, academic and NGO sectors is a more recent phenomenon (Ruhl et al., 2007; Daily et al., 2009). Spurred by growing demand for more sophisticated analysis of the social and economic consequences of land management decisions, the US Department of Interior - Bureau of Land Management (BLM) launched a pilot project with the US Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the usefulness and feasibility of ecosystem service assessment and valuation tools to provide inputs to decision-making. The project analysed ecosystem services in the US portion of the San Pedro River watershed, which includes the BLM-managed San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA), to improve the understanding of complex social and ecological relationships that transcend administrative divisions. The BLM manages some 99 million hectares, primarily in the western United States, and 283 million hectares of sub-surface mineral estate. BLM's multiple-use mission requires that it appropriately balance non-extractive uses such as habitat conservation, recreation and archaeological heritage protection and the extractive use of resources such as timber, oil and gas, coal, uranium, and other minerals.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

USGS ecosystem research for the next decade: advancing discovery and application in parks and protected areas through collaboration

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In recognition of the importance of science in making these decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 identified ecosystem science as one of six science directions included in a comprehensive decadal strategy (USGS 2007). The Ecosystems Mission Area was identified as essential for integrating activity within the USGS and as a key to enhanced integration with other Federal and private sector research and management organizations (Myers at al., 2007). This paper focuses on benefits to parks and protected areas from the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area plan that expanded the scope of the original 2007 science strategy, to identify the Bureau’s work in ecosystem science over the next decade (Williams et al., 2013). The plan describes a framework that encompasses both basic and applied science and allows the USGS to continue to contribute meaningfully to conservation and management issues related to the Nation’s parks and ecological resources. This framework relies on maintaining long-standing, collaborative relationships with partners in both conducting science and applying scientific results. Here we summarize the major components of the USGS Ecosystems Science Strategy, articulating the vision, goals and strategic approaches, then outlining some of the proposed actions that will ultimately prove useful to those managing parks and protected areas. We end with a discussion on the future of ecosystem science for the USGS and how it can be used to evaluate ecosystem change and the associated consequences to management of our Nation’s natural resources.

The George Wright Forum↗
USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey Science—Improving the value of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Introduction Congress directed the Federal Government to work with States to restore the Nation’s largest estuary. Chesapeake Bay restoration provides important economic and ecological benefits: 18 million people live and work in the Bay watershed and enjoy its benefits. 3,600 types of fish, wildlife, and plants underpin the economic value of the Bay ecosystem. Poor water quality and habitat loss threaten restoration and negatively impact the economy. 10 Goals to meet by 2025 through the Chesapeake Bay Program, a voluntary partnership.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2004

Petroleum systems succeed play basis in Appalachian basin resource estimate

The US Geological Survey (USGS) periodically conducts subjective probabilistic assessments of the technically recoverable undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of the US and of the world. In addition, the USGS prepares forecasts of that portion of the technically recoverable resources that may be economic under specified conditions of supply, demand, and price. Depending on priorities, regional hydrocarbon assessments of the US are revised every 5 to 10 years. These assessments of undiscovered hydrocarbons supplement the data on hydrocarbon reserves that are reported annually by the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. In between assessments, USGS assessment geologists conduct research and compile geologic and production data that may be used to improve future assessments. This new information commonly effects changes in the way the USGS defines "plays" or "assessment units" from assessment to assessment. Furthermore, USGS assessment methodology is in a constant state of evolution and changes to some degree from assessment to assessment.

Oil & Gas Journal↗
USGS2024

Exploring the uncertainty of machine learning models and geostatistical mapping of rare earth element potential in Indiana coals, USA

Rare earth elements and yttrium (REEs) have a wide range of applications in high- and low-carbon technologies. The strategic significance of REEs has grown due to their expanding applications in manufacturing industries and the constrained availability of these essential resources. This research explores the applicability of machine learning models and their uncertainty for assessing the REE potential in coal beds using various coal parameters as inputs. The work focuses on developing a predictive model based on geological variables, excluding considerations related to potential shifts in the commodities market. The Indiana Coal Quality Database was used as the data source. The promising and unpromising indicators derived from the outlook coefficient of samples from the database were used as the REE potential indicator for machine learning classification models. The filter-based approach with bootstrap was used to evaluate the importance of the coal parameters and their prediction uncertainties. Four machine learning methods (linear discriminant analysis (LDA), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN), a data balancing and augmentation approach (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique), and bootstrap resampling techniques were used for building the models and evaluating their prediction capabilities under uncertainty. It was determined that the SVM bootstrap model with ten-times balanced and augmented data provided superior results compared with other models. Finally, stochastic spatial maps of the REE potential within the coal basin were generated using sequential indicator simulation. The spatial maps of the REE potential showed that a 29% area of the Indiana section of the Illinois coal basin has economic potential of REEs, with 90% confidence.

Indiana↗
USGS1984

Earth and water resources and hazards in Central America

Long-range economic development in Central America will depend in large part on production of indigenous mineral, energy, and water resources and on mitigation of the disastrous effects of geologic and hydrologic hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods. The region has six world-class metal mines at present as well as additional evidence of widespread mineralization. Systematic investigations using modern mineral exploration techniques should reveal more mineral deposits suitable for development. Widespread evidence of lignite and geothermal resources suggests that intensive studies could identify producible energy sources in most Central American countries. Water supply and water quality vary greatly from country to country. Local problems of ground- and surface-water availability and of contamination create a need for systematic programs to provide better hydrologic data, capital improvements, and management. Disastrous earthquakes have destroyed or severely damaged many cities in Central America. Volcanic eruptions, landslides, mudflows, and floods have devastated most of the Pacific side of Central America at one time or another. A regional approach to earthquake, volcano, and flood-risk analysis and monitoring, using modern technology and concepts, would provide the facilities and means for acquiring knowledge necessary to reduce future losses. All Central American countries need to strengthen institutions and programs dealing with earth and water resources and natural hazards. Some of these needs may be satisfied through existing or pending projects and technical and economic assistance from U.S. or other sources. The need for a comprehensive study of the natural resources of Central America and the requirements for their development is evident. The U.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative offers both an excellent opportunity for a regional approach to these pervasive problems and an opportunity for international cooperation.

Circular↗
USGS2006

Estimating landslide losses - preliminary results of a seven-State pilot project

Introduction: In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Program provided funding for seven State geological surveys to report on the status of landslide investigation strategies in each of their States, and to suggest improved ways to approach the tracking of landslides, their effects, losses associated with the landslides, and hazard mitigation strategies. Each State was to provide a draft report suggesting innovative ways to track landslides, and to participate in subsequent workshops. A workshop was convened in June 2003 in Lincoln, Neb., to discuss the results and future strategies on how best to incorporate the seven pilot projects into one methodology that all of the 50 States could adopt. The seven individual reports produced by the State surveys are published here to put forth a forum for discussion of the varying methods of tracking landslides. The goal is to eventually adopt a single, universally applied methodology to track landslides that will provide a consistent framework for collecting data on landslide damage and economic impact. Participating States include: California (James Davis, Jack McMillan); Kentucky (Jim Cobb, John Kiefer, John Rockaway); Nebraska (Mark Kuzila, Duane Eversoll); Ohio (Thomas Berg, Jon Rockaway), Oregon (John Beaulieu, Yumei Wang, Renee Summers, Jon Hofmeister); Pennsylvania (Jay Parrish, Helen Delano); Utah (Richard Allis, Francis Ashland). The USGS personnel involved in the planning and meeting facilitation are Paula Gori, Peter Lyttle, and John Pallister. The general USGS strategy to address landslide loss reduction was developed with input from State geological surveys, the engineering-geology consulting community, and academic investigators. The strategy was reviewed by the National Research Council, 2004), is summarized in USGS Circular 1244 (Spiker and Gori, 2003) and is endorsed by the AASG. This pilot study, conducted by seven State geological surveys, examines the feasibility of collecting accurate and reliable information on economic losses associated with landslides. Each State survey examined the availability, distribution, and inherent uncertainties of economic loss data in their study areas. Their results provide the basis for identifying the most fruitful methods of collecting landslide loss data nationally, using methods that are consistent and provide common goals. These results can enhance and establish the future directions of scientific investigation priorities by convincingly documenting landslide risks and consequences that are universal throughout the 50 States. This report is organized as follows: A general summary of the pilot project history, goals, and preliminary conclusions from the Lincoln, Neb. workshop are presented first. Internet links are then provided for each State report, which appear on the internet in PDF format and which have been placed at the end of this open-file report. A reference section follows the reports, and, lastly, an Appendix of categories of landslide loss and sources of loss information is included for the reader's information. Please note: The Oregon Geological Survey has also submitted a preliminary report on indirect loss estimation methodology, which is also linked with the others. Each State report is unique and presented in the form in which it was submitted, having been independently peer reviewed by each respective State survey. As such, no universal 'style' or format has been adopted as there have been no decisions on which inventory methods will be recommended to the 50 states, as of this writing. The reports are presented here as information for decision makers, and for the record; although several reports provide recommendations on inventory methods that could be adopted nationwide, currently no decisions have been made on adopting a uniform methodology for the States.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Economic resilience through "One-Water" management

Disruption of water availability leads to food scarcity and loss of economic opportunity. Development of effective water-resource policies and management strategies could provide resiliance to local economies in the face of water disruptions such as drought, flood, and climate change. To accomplish this, a detailed understanding of human water use and natural water resource availability is needed. A hydrologic model is a computer software system that simulates the movement and use of water in a geographic area. It takes into account all components of the water cycle--“One Water”--and helps estimate water budgets for groundwater, surface water, and landscape features. The U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW One-Water Integrated Hydrologic Model (MODFLOWOWHM) software and scientific methods can provide water managers and political leaders with hydrologic information they need to help ensure water security and economic resilience.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Chesapeake Bay – The role of science in environmental restoration

The Chesapeake Bay is the Nation's largest estuary and historically supported one of the most productive fisheries in the world. In addition to supporting aquatic communities and wildlife, the bay's watershed serves the economic and recreational needs of 15 million people. The fertile soils of the watershed support significant agricultural production. Unfortunately, the commercial, economic, and recreational value of the bay and its watershed has been degraded by poor water quality, loss of habitat, and overharvesting of living resources. Since the early 1980's, the Chesapeake Bay Program, which is a partnership among Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the District of Columbia, the Federal Government, and the Chesapeake Bay Commission, has been formulating and implementing restoration goals to restore living resources, minimize habitat loss, and reduce the amount of nutrients, sediment, and toxic substances entering the bay. The U.S. Geological Survey has the critical role of providing unbiased scientific information to be used in helping to formulate, implement, and assess the effectiveness of restoration goals in the bay and its watershed.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS1991

Effects of detrital influx in the Pennsylvanian Upper Freeport peat swamp

Quartz cathodoluminescence properties and mineralogy of three sets of samples and vegetal and/ or miospore data from two sets of samples from the Upper Freeport coal bed, west-central Pennsylvania, show that detrital influence from a penecontemporaneous channel is limited to an area less than three km from the channel. The sets of samples examined include localities of the coal bed where (1) the coal is thin, split by partings, and near a penecontemporaneous fluvial channel, (2) the coal is relatively thick and located approximately three km from the channel, and (3) the coal is thick and located approximately 12 km from the channel. Samples from locality 1 (nearest the channel) have relatively high-ash yields (low-temperature ash average = 27.3% on a pyrite- and calcite-free basis) and high proportions of quartz and clay minerals. The quartz is primarily detrital, as determined by cathodoluminescent properties, and the ratio of kaolinite to illite is low. In addition, most of the plant remains and miospores indicate peat-forming plants that required low nutrient levels for growth. In contrast, samples from localities 2 and 3, from the more interior parts of the bed, contained predominantly authigenic quartz grains nd yielded low-temperature ash values of less than 14% on a pyrite- and calcite-free basis. The low-temperature ash contains low concentrations of quartz and clay minerals and the ratio of kaolinite to illite is relatively high. Although intact core was not available for paleobotanical analyses, another core collected within 1 km from locality 3 contained plant types interpreted to have required high nutrient levels for growth. These data indicate that mineral formation is dominated by authigenic processes in interior parts of the coal body. Some of the authigenic quartz may have been derived from herbaceous ferns as indicated by patterns in the palynological and paleobotanical data. In contrast, detrital processes appeared to be limited to in areas directly adjacent to the penecontemporaneous channel where the coal bed is high in ash, split by mineral-rich partings, and of little or no economic value.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2015

Storm-influenced deltaic deposits of the Middle Jurassic Gaikema Sandstone in a measured section on the northern Iniskin Peninsula, Cook Inlet basin, Alaska

Middle Jurassic strata of the Gaikema Sandstone were deposited about 170 million years ago on a delta that was located on the western shoreline of the Cook Inlet basin (Detterman and Hartsock, 1966; LePain and others, 2011, 2013). The delta was built by swift, sediment-laden rivers that flowed southeastward from a mountainous volcanic terrane west of the Bruin Bay fault (fig. 6-1). Upon reaching the edge of the Jurassic sea, the rivers dumped abundant sand, gravel, and mud into a depocenter on the northern Iniskin Peninsula, about 240 km southwest of Anchorage (figs. 6-1, 6-2). This report provides a preliminary description and interpretation of a detailed, 34-m-thick measured section in the Gaikema Sandstone on the south shore of Chinitna Bay at latitude 59.816°N, longitude 153.168°W (figs. 6-1–6-3). The sandstone in this measured section exhibits hummocky cross lamination and other features suggestive of storm-influenced deposition on the shallow-marine, seaward margin of the Gaikema delta. Our field studies of the Gaikema Sandstone were conducted during 2013 and 2014 as part of a collaborative effort by the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS), Alaska Division of Oil and Gas (DOG), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide the public with reliable information on the geologic framework and petroleum resource potential of Cook Inlet basin (Gillis, 2013, 2014). Jurassic rocks in Cook Inlet, including the Gaikema Sandstone, are of economic interest because they could contain significant undiscovered petroleum resources (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 2011; Stanley and others, 2011a, 2011b, 2013a; LePain and others, 2013).

Alaska↗
USGS2003

To the National Map and beyond

Scientific understanding, technology, and social, economic, and environmental conditions have driven a rapidly changing demand for geographic information, both digital and analog. For more than a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing innovative partnerships with other government agencies and private industry to produce and distribute geographic information efficiently; increase activities in remote sensing to ensure ongoing monitoring of the land surface; and develop new understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface change. These activities are now contributing to a more robust set of geographic information called The National Map (TNM). The National Map is designed to provide an up-to-date, seamless, horizontally and vertically integrated set of basic digital geographic data, a frequent monitoring of changes on the land surface, and an understanding of the condition of the Earth's surface and many of the processes that shape it. The USGS has reorganized its National Mapping Program into three programs to address the continuum of scientific activities-describing (mapping), monitoring, understanding, modeling, and predicting. The Cooperative Topographic Mapping Program focuses primarily on the mapping and revision aspects of TNM. The National Map also includes results from the Land Remote Sensing and Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Programs that provide continual updates, new insights, and analytical tools. The National Map is valuable as a framework for current research, management, and operational activities. It also provides a critical framework for the development of distributed, spatially enabled decision support systems.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗
USGS2013

Challenge theme 4: People in the Borderlands: Chapter 6 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The management of shared resources in the United States–Mexican border region requires cooperation from the people of both countries to assess and understand their relation to the environment. Society is dependent on the long-term healthy functioning of ecosystems and their ability to supply food and raw materials. Likewise, resources and services obtained from nature could be used efficiently within the society. A more equitable distribution of costs and benefits related to goods and services can lead to fewer tensions and a higher quality of life for all the people in the Borderlands. Urban development, background contamination from mineral ore deposits, irrigation, sewage effluent, and even global climate change all have the potential to alter the stability of the fragile systems in the Borderlands (Brady and others, 2001, 2002; Norman, 2007, 2010; Gu and others, 2008; Norman, Gray, and others, 2008; Norman, Hirsch, and Ward, 2008; Norman, Callegary, and others, 2010; Norman, Huth, and others, 2010; Norman, Levick, and others, 2010; Norman, Tallent-Halsell, and others, 2010; Norman, Villarreal, and others 2012). Social efficiency means that because resources should be used where they are needed most, they should be distributed proportionally among human societies and individuals (Azar and others, 1996). Despite the critical role natural resources play in maintaining human and environmental health, current knowledge of the manner in which natural and human-caused forces interact to limit these resources—including their quality and quantity (such as through spatiotemporal changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumping of groundwater, and release of contaminants)—is inadequate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is trying to understand the relation between changing landscapes, changing demographics, and a changing climate in the Borderlands while the environmental, economic, and societal issues continue to be intertwined between the two nations.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗
USGS1975

In search of a statistical probability model for petroleum-resource assessment : a critique of the probabilistic significance of certain concepts and methods used in petroleum-resource assessment : to that end, a probabilistic model is sketched

Exploratory drilling is still in incipient or youthful stages in those areas of the world where the bulk of the potential petroleum resources is yet to be discovered. Methods of assessing resources from projections based on historical production and reserve data are limited to mature areas. For most of the world's petroleum-prospective areas, a more speculative situation calls for a critical review of resource-assessment methodology. The language of mathematical statistics is required to define more rigorously the appraisal of petroleum resources. Basically, two approaches have been used to appraise the amounts of undiscovered mineral resources in a geologic province: (1) projection models, which use statistical data on the past outcome of exploration and development in the province; and (2) estimation models of the overall resources of the province, which use certain known parameters of the province together with the outcome of exploration and development in analogous provinces. These two approaches often lead to widely different estimates. Some of the controversy that arises results from a confusion of the probabilistic significance of the quantities yielded by each of the two approaches. Also, inherent limitations of analytic projection models-such as those using the logistic and Gomperts functions --have often been ignored. The resource-assessment problem should be recast in terms that provide for consideration of the probability of existence of the resource and of the probability of discovery of a deposit. Then the two above-mentioned models occupy the two ends of the probability range. The new approach accounts for (1) what can be expected with reasonably high certainty by mere projections of what has been accomplished in the past; (2) the inherent biases of decision-makers and resource estimators; (3) upper bounds that can be set up as goals for exploration; and (4) the uncertainties in geologic conditions in a search for minerals. Actual outcomes can then be viewed as phenomena subject to statistical uncertainty and responsive to changes in economic and technologic factors.

Circular↗