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At least 1,513 records · Page 84Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse ecosystem type providing a wealth of ecosystem services across western North America. Managing PJ woodlands in the 21st century entails balancing multiple conservation objectives, and resource managers and policy-makers working to sustain PJ woodlands need spatially explicit information about current PJ woodland conditions and how they may be impacted in coming decades in the context of wildfire risk and changing climate. Here, we address knowledge gaps and provide information that improves the long-term value of conservation and restoration actions in PJ woodlands. To this end, we merged projections of future environmental suitability for nine PJ species with wildfire risk and locations of mature and old-growth (MOG) woodlands to assess spatial variation in PJ woodlands with differing threats and management opportunities. We identified potential climate refugia with enduring high community suitability and low burn probability (3 % of study area ) that may persist with relatively little management. We found promising locations of PJ-MOG forest type with high future suitability (12 % of areas) that could be prioritized for fire risk reduction to maintain high-value woodlands. Despite a 38 % mean community suitability decline under future climate conditions, some locations (7 % of areas) may act as climate refugia where future climate conditions can support current PJ woodland composition and structure. We conclude by demonstrating how this information can be integrated into a conceptual framework to help prioritize conservation and climate adaptation in PJ woodlands.

western North America↗

USGS2019

Age and growth of Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad occupying two reservoir-river complexes with different groundwater contributions

Restoring groundwater flow is a management option that improves water temperature regimes and benefits fishes. Although this strategy applies more readily to river systems, the thermal character of reservoirs is heavily influenced by inflowing rivers. We examined differences in age, structure, and growth of both Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum that occupy catchments with varying groundwater contributions in the south‐central United States. Seepage run data indicated that the Kiamichi River was losing surface water to groundwater in summer 2016, whereas groundwater inflows were apparent in the Elk River basin. Summer 2016 data showed that the Elk River had cooler water temperatures than the Kiamichi River and Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees water temperatures were similar to those in the incoming Elk River. We found higher densities of older Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad (maximums of 32 and 8 years old, respectively) in samples from the Grand basin than among fish that were sampled from the Kiamichi River basin (21 and 6 years old, respectively). Freshwater Drum grew at similar rates in both basins even though they reached larger maximum lengths in the Grand basin (649 mm TL) than in the Kiamichi River basin (600 mm). The average asymptotic length was greater for the Kiamichi population ( L ∞ = 613 mm) than for the Grand population ( L ∞ = 557 mm). Gizzard Shad from the Grand basin were larger than those from the Kiamichi River basin, though the latter population grew faster initially (Brody growth coefficient: K = 0.787 versus K = 0.179, respectively), but they had smaller asymptotic length ( L ∞ = 206 mm versus L ∞ = 343 mm). The role that groundwater plays in temperature regulation in these basins partially explains the observed differences. Our results suggest that the metabolic theory of ecology can be applied to fisheries management at a finer spatial scale.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2018

Remaining populations of an upland stream fish persist in refugia defined by habitat features at multiple scales

Aim Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter ( Etheostoma osburni ), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment- and/or segment-scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni 's southern range. Catchment-scale features primarily constrained land use and finer-scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population-supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location , suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species’ distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale-specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2010

Biological water-quality assessment of selected streams in the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District Planning Area of Wisconsin, 2007

Changes in the water quality of stream ecosystems in an urban area may manifest in conspicuous ways, such as in murky or smelly streamwater, or in less conspicuous ways, such as fewer native or pollution-sensitive organisms. In 2004, and again in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey sampled stream organisms—algae, invertebrates, and fish—in 14 Milwaukee area streams to assess water quality as part of the ongoing Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) Corridor Study. In addition, passive-sampling devices (SPMDs, “semipermeable membrane devices”) were deployed at a subset of sites in order to evaluate the potential exposure of stream organisms to certain toxic chemicals. Results of the 2007 sampling effort are the focus of this report. Results of sampling from 2007 are compared with results from 2004. The water quality of sampled streams was assessed by evaluating biological-assemblage data, metrics computed from assemblage data, and an aggregate bioassessment ranking method that combined data for algae, invertebrates, and fish. These data contain information about the abundance (number) of different species in each group of stream organisms and the balance between species that can or cannot tolerate polluted or disturbed conditions. In 2007, the highest numbers of algal, invertebrate, and fish species were found at the Milwaukee River at Milwaukee, the largest sampled site. Algal results indicated water quality concerns at 10 of the 14 sampled sites due to the occurrence of nuisance algae or low percentages of pollution-sensitive algae. When compared to 2004, total algal biovolume was higher in 2007 at 12 of 14 sites, due mostly to more nuisance green algae from unknown causes. Results of several metrics, including the Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI-10), suggest that invertebrate assemblages in the Little Menomonee River, Underwood Creek, and Honey Creek were poorer quality in 2007 compared to 2004. Six sites received “very poor” quality ratings for fish in 2007, mostly because inadequate numbers of fish were collected at five sites to allow computation of an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI); this resulted in three additional sites receiving “very poor” ratings compared to 2004. Some signs of potential improvement in the fish assemblage were evident at Lincoln Creek, possibly reflecting delayed effects of the restoration of stream habitat, completed in 2002; however, algae and invertebrates did not show signs of improvement. Aggregate bioassessment rankings across all groups of organisms for 2004 and 2007 indicated that water quality at the two Milwaukee River main stem sites (at Milwaukee and near Cedarburg), Jewel Creek, and the Menomonee River at Menomonee Falls was the least-degraded among all sampled sites. Rankings for Oak Creek and Little Menomonee suggested water quality was worse in 2007 compared to 2004 and placed these two sites together with Kinnickinnic River and Underwood Creek, two concrete-line sites, indicating the most-degraded water quality among all sampled sites. The aggregate ranking for Lincoln Creek in 2007 would have placed it in the most-degraded category but for the positive influence of the fish ranking when compared to poor algal and invertebrate rankings. Potential toxicity due to certain manmade chemicals, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), was found at all six sites where SPMDs were deployed. As was found in 2004, the highest potential toxicity in 2007 was observed at Lincoln Creek where chemical screening in 2007 also showed the highest total PAHs of all six sites; however, potential toxicity at Little Menomonee River, Honey Creek, and Kinnickinnic River was relatively high compared to Milwaukee River near Cedarburg. Although toxicity and chemical results in 2007 did not agree with aggregate rankings for Lincoln Creek because of fish, nor for Honey Creek, the results did agree with aggregate rankings at four of the six sites. In addition to toxicological and chemical influences, the more urbanized sites have high percentages of impervious surface area, resulting in frequent high stream flows that can adversely affect algal, invertebrate, and fish assemblages. Assessments of the ecological status of different groups of organisms and of potential chemical and physical stressors to organisms are important tools in evaluating streamwater quality.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Sequence analysis and acoustic tracking individual lake sturgeon identifies multiple patterns of river-lake habitat use

Understanding the spatial ecology of sturgeon (Acipenseridae) has proven to be a challenge due to the life history characteristics of these fish, especially their long life span, intermittent spawning, and long‐distance migrations. Within the Huron‐Erie Corridor (HEC) of the Laurentian Great Lakes, habitat use of 247 lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) was monitored over a three‐year period (2015–2017) with acoustic transmitters. Extensive spatial coverage of receivers throughout the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and Detroit River between Lake Huron and Lake Erie (~150 km) allowed for continuous monitoring of the movements of acoustic‐tagged individuals. Sequence analysis of individual detection histories was used to describe lake sturgeon habitat use and to determine (1) whether distinct habitat‐use patterns occurred within the HEC; (2) whether the range of habitats occupied varied across seasons among sturgeon grouped by common patterns; and (3) whether variation identified was related to tagging sites in the two rivers or sex. Lake sturgeon were active throughout the HEC, but five distinct habitat‐use patterns were identified. River residents were not broadly distributed across entire rivers, but rather associated with particular segments (middle Detroit River, St. Clair River delta). Variations in habitat‐use sequences were in part related to three river tagging sites, but not sex, and did not produce groups with sequences that reflected all five habitat‐use patterns derived from cluster analysis. Lake sturgeon distribution was reduced to fewer habitat segments during winter and expanded to the maximum extent during the spring and summer. Conservation planning that incorporates behavioral diversity of habitat use is relatively rare due to a lack of observations on movements of individuals at biologically relevant spatial and temporal scales, but using telemetry and sequence analysis methods may promote the success of conservation and restoration efforts.

St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, Detroit River↗

USGS2008

Spatial dynamics of overbank sedimentation in floodplain systems

Floodplains provide valuable social and ecological functions, and understanding the rates and patterns of overbank sedimentation is critical for river basin management and rehabilitation. Channelization of alluvial systems throughout the world has altered hydrological and sedimentation processes within floodplain ecosystems. In the loess belt region of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of the United States, channelization, the geology of the region, and past land-use practices have resulted in the formation of dozens of valley plugs in stream channels and the formation of shoals at the confluence of stream systems. Valley plugs completely block stream channels with sediment and debris and can result in greater deposition rates on floodplain surfaces. Presently, however, information is lacking on the rates and variability of overbank sedimentation associated with valley plugs and shoals. We quantified deposition rates and textures in floodplains along channelized streams that contained valley plugs and shoals, in addition to floodplains occurring along an unchannelized stream, to improve our understanding of overbank sedimentation associated with channelized streams. Feldspar clay marker horizons and marker poles were used to measure floodplain deposition from 2002 to 2005 and data were analyzed with geospatial statistics to determine the spatial dynamics of sedimentation within the floodplains. Mean sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.67??cm/y at unchannelized sites, 0.16 to 2.27??cm/y at shoal sites, and 3.44 to 6.20??cm/y at valley plug sites. Valley plug sites had greater rates of deposition, and the deposited sediments contained more coarse sand material than either shoal or unchannelized sites. A total of 59 of 183 valley plug study plots had mean deposition rates > 5??cm/y. The geospatial analyses showed that the spatial dynamics of sedimentation can be influenced by the formation of valley plugs and shoals on channelized streams; however, responses can vary. Restoration efforts in the region need to have basinwide collaboration with landowners and address catchment-scale processes, including the geomorphic instability of the region, to be successful. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2021

Surface material and snout-vent length predict vertical scaling ability in brown treesnakes:an evaluation of multispecies barriers for invasive species control on Guam

The combination of snake-proof barriers and an aerial toxicant delivery system for snake suppression may allow large-scale control of invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam. However, suppression or local eradication of several other species (e.g., introduced ungulates, cats, rodents) may be required for successful restoration and recovery of forest habitat and reintroduction of native fauna. Island-wide eradication of invasive species is unlikely on Guam, and existing snake-proof barriers are largely ineffective against cats, rodents, shrews, or monitors. Improved barrier technology and pest-control tools may together provide a viable solution to support localized restoration of species and habitats. We designed and tested prototype multispecies barriers using materials known to repel ungulates, cats, and rodents, with a focus on testing the ability of a rolled hood installed over three different mesh designs to repel brown treesnakes and black rats (Rattus rattus). Woven wire (4.9 × 12 mm aperture, 2.5 mm dia. wire) repelled 99.1% of all snakes, including ≥1031 breach attempts by 112 individuals and 2 successful breaches by 1 small individual. Woven wire (6 × 6 mm aperture, 2.7 mm dia. wire) repelled 100% of all snakes, including 611 breach attempts by 65 individuals. Mini chain link mesh (7 × 9 mm aperture, 1 mm dia. wire) repelled 100% of all snakes, including 1053 breach attempts by 97 individuals. Brown treesnakes were unable to climb either of the two woven wire designs (1642 breach attempts by 160 individuals), making the rolled hood serve as a redundant secondary snake barrier. The rolled hood repelled 100% of all snakes when individuals were provided a climbable surface to access the hood (94 breach attempts by 39 snakes). The probability of a snake being able to climb the mini chain link mesh was inversely related to SVL. The rolled hood repelled 100% of all rats, with 5079 breach attempts by 21 individuals. Recommended next steps include consultation with engineers to address wind loading, structural integrity, material interactions, and integration of decision support tools to optimize cost and efficacy of barrier designs on the landscape.

Management of Biological Invasions.↗

USGS2017

Using object-based image analysis to conduct high-resolution conifer extraction at regional spatial scales

The distribution and abundance of pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma, J. occidentalis ) trees (hereinafter, "pinyon-juniper") in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the Great Basin in the Western United States has increased substantially since the late 1800s. Distributional expansion and infill of pinyon-juniper into sagebrush ecosystems threatens the ecological function and economic viability of these ecosystems within the Great Basin, and is now a major contemporary challenge facing land and wildlife managers. Particularly, pinyon-juniper encroachment into intact sagebrush ecosystems has been identified as a primary threat facing populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, "sage-grouse"), which is a sagebrush obligate species. Even seemingly innocuous scatterings of isolated pinyon-juniper in an otherwise intact sagebrush landscape can negatively affect survival and reproduction of sage-grouse. Therefore, accurate and high-resolution maps of pinyon-juniper distribution and abundance (indexed by canopy cover) across broad geographic extents would help guide land management decisions that better target areas for pinyon-juniper removal projects (for example, fuel reduction, habitat improvement for sage-grouse, and other sagebrush species) and facilitate science that further quantifies ecological effects of pinyon-juniper encroachment on sage-grouse populations and sagebrush ecosystem processes . Hence, we mapped pinyon-juniper (referred to as conifers for actual mapping) at a 1 × 1-meter (m) high resolution across the entire range of previously mapped sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California. We used digital orthophoto quad tiles from National Agriculture Imagery Program (2010, 2013) as base imagery, and then classified conifers using automated feature extraction methodology with the program Feature Analyst ™ . This method relies on machine learning algorithms that extract features from imagery based on their spectral and spatial signatures. We classified conifers in 6,230 tiles and then tested for errors of omission and commission using confusion matrices. Accuracy ranged from 79.1 to 96.8, with an overall accuracy of 84.3 percent across all mapped areas. An estimated accuracy coefficient (kappa) indicated substantial to nearly perfect agreement, which varied across mapped areas. For this mapping process across the entire mapping extent, four sets of products are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7348HVC , including (1) a shapefile representing accuracy results linked to mapping subunits; (2) binary rasters representing conifer presence or absence at a 1 × 1 m resolution; (3) a 30 × 30 m resolution raster representing percentages of conifer canopy cover within each cell from 0 to 100; and (4) 1 × 1 m resolution canopy cover classification rasters derived from a 50-m-radius moving window analysis. The latter two products can be reclassified in a geographic information system (GIS) into user-specified bins to meet different objectives, which include approximations for phases of encroachment. These products complement, and in some cases improve upon, existing conifer maps in the Western United States, and will help facilitate sage-grouse habitat management and sagebrush ecosystem restoration.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Freezing temperatures restrict woody plant recruitment and restoration efforts in abandoned montane pastures

Tropical montane forests are being lost at an alarming rate but harbor some of the globe’s most unique biodiversity. The Hawaiian archipelago is a prime example of the importance of high elevation forests to species conservation and persistence as they serve as the last refugia for Hawaiian birds. Yet these forests have been converted to invasive dominated pastures, and efforts to restore them have been met with limited success. Unsuccessful forest restoration may be due to freezing temperatures acting as a demographic bottleneck by killing seedlings recruiting into pastures. We determined freezing tolerances of eight common native woody plants at a high-elevation forest on Hawaiʻi Island and compared these freezing tolerances to two years of site-specific winter temperatures and 17 years of regional temperature records. Low temperature extremes were more severe and common in pastures than under nearby 30-year-old canopy trees. Freezing temperatures over two years were severe enough to damage leaf tissues of six of eight species tested. Those species that displayed the greatest freezing tolerance were also those found naturally recruiting into open pastures. Temperature trends over the past 17 years show monthly minimum temperatures are not increasing as predicted by climate change. Persistent severe freezing events may limit seedling recruitment in the pasture, slowing native woody plant expansion into these abandoned pastures. The species-level differences in freezing tolerance show that current management actions are using species that are at high risk to freezing damage outside of the forest canopy and that alternative species may warrant consideration.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2009

Salinity tolerance and mycorrhizal responsiveness of native xeroriparian plants in semi-arid western USA

Restoration of salt-affected soils is a global concern. In the western United States, restoration of salinized land, particularly in river valleys, often involves control of Tamarix, an introduced species with high salinity tolerance. Revegetation of hydrologically disconnected floodplains and terraces after Tamarix removal is often difficult because of limited knowledge regarding the salinity tolerance of candidate native species for revegetation. Additionally, Tamarix appears to be non-mycorrhizal. Extended occupation of Tamarix may deplete arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in the soil, further decreasing the success of revegetation efforts. To address these issues, we screened 42 species, races, or ecotypes native to southwestern U.S. for salinity tolerance and mycorrhizal responsiveness. As expected, the taxa tested showed a wide range of responses to salinity and mycorrhizal fungi. This variation also occurred between ecotypes or races of the same species, indicating that seed collected from high-salinity reference systems is likely better adapted to harsh conditions than seed originating from less saline environments. All species tested had a positive or neutral response to mycorrhizal inoculation. We found no clear evidence that mycorrhizae increased salinity tolerance, but some species were so dependent on mycorrhizal fungi that they grew poorly at all salinity levels in pasteurized soil. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Applied Soil Ecology↗

USGS2022

Murky waters: Divergent ways scientists, practitioners, and landowners evaluate beaver mimicry

Beaver mimicry is a fast-growing conservation technique to restore streams and manage water that is gaining popularity within the natural resource management community because of a wide variety of claimed socio-environmental benefits. Despite a growing number of projects, many questions and concerns about beaver mimicry remain. This study draws on qualitative data from 49 interviews with scientists, practitioners, and landowners, to explore the question of how beaver mimicry projects continue to be promoted and implemented, despite the lack of comprehensive scientific studies and unclear regulatory requirements. Specifically, we investigate how these three groups differentially assess the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of evidence for beaver mimicry and analyze how those assessments affect each group’s conclusions about the feasibility, desirability, and scalability of beaver mimicry. By highlighting the interaction between how someone assesses evidence and how they draw conclusions about an emerging natural resource management approach, we draw attention to the roles of experiential evidence and scientific data in debates over beaver mimicry. Our research emphasizes that understanding how different groups perceive salience, credibility, and legitimacy of scientific information is necessary for understanding how they make assessments about conservation and natural resource management strategies.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2021

Rigorously valuing the impact of projected coral reef degradation on coastal hazard risk in Florida

The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by increasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the physical protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed, in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coast of the State of Florida estimated to be more than 5,600 people and $675 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Degradation of coral reef ecosystems over the past several decades and during tropical storm events has caused regional-scale erosion of the shallow seafloor that serves as a protective barrier against coastal hazards along Southeast Florida, increasing risks to coastal populations. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to provide a rigorous valuation of the increased hazard faced by Florida’s reef-fronted coastal communities because of the projected degradation of its adjacent coral reefs. We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 430 kilometers of Florida’s reef-lined shorelines for both the current and projected future coral reef conditions. We quantified the coastal flood risk increase caused by coral reef degradation using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculated the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection lost because of projected coral reef degradation. We found that degradation of the coral reefs off Florida increases future risks significantly. In particular, we estimated the protection lost by Florida’s coral reefs from projected coral reef degradation will result in: Increased flooding to more than 8.77 square kilometers (3.39 square miles) of land annually; Increased flooding affecting more than 7,300 people annually; Increased direct damages of more than $385.4 million to more than 1,400 buildings annually; and Increased indirect damages to more $438.1 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of increased flood risk caused by the projected degradation of Florida’s coral reefs is more than 7,300 people and $823.6 million (2010 U.S. dollars). These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when degradation of Florida’s coral reefs will decrease critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida’s coastal communities.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region↗

USGS2015

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

The reintroduction of a species into its historic range is a critical component of conservation programmes designed to restore extirpated metapopulations. However, many reintroduction efforts fail, and the lack of rigorous monitoring programmes and statistical models have prevented a general understanding of the factors affecting metapopulation viability following reintroduction. Spatially explicit metapopulation theory provides the basis for understanding the dynamics of fragmented populations linked by dispersal, but the theory has rarely been used to guide reintroduction programmes because most spatial metapopulation models require presence–absence data from every site in the network, and they do not allow for observation error such as imperfect detection. We develop a spatial occupancy model that relaxes these restrictive assumptions and allows for inference about metapopulation extinction risk and connectivity. We demonstrate the utility of the model using six years of data on the Chiricahua leopard frog Lithobates chiricahuensis , a threatened desert-breeding amphibian that was reintroduced to a network of sites in Arizona USA in 2003. Our results indicate that the model can generate precise predictions of extinction risk and produce connectivity maps that can guide conservation efforts following reintroduction. In the case of L. chiricahuensis , many sites were functionally isolated, and 82% of sites were characterized by intermittent water availability and high local extinction probabilities (0·84, 95% CI: 0·64–0·99). However, under the current hydrological conditions and spatial arrangement of sites, the risk of metapopulation extinction is estimated to be <3% over a 50-year time horizon. Low metapopulation extinction risk appears to result from the high dispersal capability of the species, the high density of sites in the region and the existence of predator-free permanent wetlands with low local extinction probabilities. Should management be required, extinction risk can be reduced by either increasing the hydroperiod of existing sites or by creating new sites to increase connectivity. Synthesis and applications . This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2019

Recovery planning in a dynamic system: Integrating uncertainty into a decision support tool for an endangered songbird

Along the Santa Clara River in California, populations of the federally and state-listed Least Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) are recovering from near extirpation. Habitat protection and restoration, as well as controlling rates of brood parasitism, are thought to be the primary drivers of this recovery. Continuing successful management of this population faces multiple challenges due to the highly dynamic and unpredictable nature of the system, lack of clearly defined and measurable recovery criteria, parametric and stochastic uncertainty, and data limitations. Many of these management challenges are not unique to Least Bell's Vireo and require careful balancing of limited resources into the future. We developed a decision support tool as a user interface for exploring the underlying uncertainty in a population viability analysis under an array of different management scenarios. The tool was designed to assist with the planning and coordination between conservation partners in the region in three distinct aspects of the decision-making process: defining the problem and setting clear goals and objectives, exploring the consequences of potential alternative actions, and identifying criteria for ongoing evaluation and monitoring. The general framework for the design of this decision support tool is broadly applicable to many management and decision-making scenarios that share these common challenges.

California↗

USGS2015

Western water and climate change

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS1996

South Florida wetlands ecosystem; biogeochemical processes in peat

The South Florida wetlands ecosystem is an environment of great size and ecological diversity (figs. 1 and 2). The landscape diversity and subtropical setting of this ecosystem provide a habitat for an abundance of plants and wildlife, some of which are unique to South Florida. South Florida wetlands are currently in crisis, however, due to the combined effects of agriculture, urbanization, and nearly 100 years of water management. Serious problems facing this ecosystem include (1) phosphorus contamination producing nutrient enrichment, which is causing changes in the native vegetation, (2) methylmercury contamination of fish and other wildlife, which poses a potential threat to human health, (3) changes in the natural flow of water in the region, resulting in more frequent drying of wetlands, loss of organic soils, and a reduction in freshwater flow to Florida Bay, (4) hypersalinity, massive algal blooms, and seagrass loss in parts of Florida Bay, and (5) a decrease in wildlife populations, especially those of wading birds. This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project focuses on the role of organic-rich sediments (peat) of South Florida wetlands in regulating the concentrations and impact of important chemical species in the environment. The cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur in peat is an important factor in the regulation of water quality in the South Florida wetlands ecosystem. These elements are central to many of the contamination issues facing South Florida wetlands, such as nutrient enrichment, mercury toxicity, and loss of peat. Many important chemical and biological reactions occur in peat and control the fate of chemical species in wetlands. Wetland scientists often refer to these reactions as biogeochemical processes, because they are chemical reactions usually mediated by microorganisms in a geological environment. An understanding of the biogeochemical processes in peat of South Florida wetlands will provide a basis for evaluating the effects on water quality of (1) constructing buffer wetlands to alleviate nutrient contamination and (2) replumbing the ecosystem to restore natural water flow. The results may also suggest new approaches for solving problems of contamination and water quality in these wetlands. A second focus of this project will be on the geochemical history of the South Florida ecosystem. Peat is a repository of the history of past environmental conditions in the wetland. Before effective action can be taken to correct many of the problems facing these wetlands, we must first study the biogeochemistry of the peat at depth in order to understand whether current problems are the result of recent human activity or are part of a long-term natural cycle. Coordination with other (USGS) projects for South Florida is ongoing. These projects are studying the biological history of the ecosystem by using pollen and shells buried in the peat, together with procedures for dating the peat at various depths, to develop an overall ecosystem history model, with emphasis on the last 100 years.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2021

Drivers of seedling establishment success in dryland restoration efforts

Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set for dryland restoration to restore millions of hectares of degraded land. These targets have been questioned as overly ambitious, but without a global evaluation of successes and failures it is impossible to gauge feasibility. Here we examine restoration seeding outcomes across 174 sites on six continents, encompassing 594,065 observations of 671 plant species. Our findings suggest reasons for optimism. Seeding had a positive impact on species presence: in almost a third of all treatments, 100% of species seeded were growing at first monitoring. However, dryland restoration is risky: 17% of projects failed, with no establishment of any seeded species, and consistent declines were found in seeded species as projects matured. Across projects, higher seeding rates and larger seed sizes resulted in a greater probability of recruitment, with further influences on species success including site aridity, taxonomic identity and species life form. Our findings suggest that investigations examining these predictive factors will yield more effective and informed restoration decision-making.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗