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A generalized deep learning model to detect and classify volcano seismicity

Volcano seismicity is often detected and classified based on its spectral properties. However, the wide variety of volcano seismic signals and increasing amounts of data make accurate, consistent, and efficient detection and classification challenging. Machine learning (ML) has proven very effective at detecting and classifying tectonic seismicity, particularly using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and leveraging labeled datasets from regional seismic networks. Progress has been made applying ML to volcano seismicity, but efforts have typically been focused on a single volcano and are often hampered by the limited availability of training data. We build on the method of Tan et al. [2024] ( 10.1029/2024JB029194 ) to generalize a spectrogram-based CNN termed the VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Neural Network ( VOISS-Net ) to detect and classify volcano seismicity at any volcano. We use a diverse training dataset of over 270,000 spectrograms from multiple volcanoes: Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Tanaga, Takawangha, and Redoubt volcanoes\replaced (Alaska, USA); Mt. Etna (Italy); and Kīlauea, Hawai`i (USA). These volcanoes present a wide range of volcano seismic signals, source-receiver distances, and eruption styles. Our generalized VOISS-Net model achieves an accuracy of 87 % on the test set. We apply this model to continuous data from several volcanoes and eruptions included within and outside our training set, and find that multiple types of tremor, explosions, earthquakes, long-period events, and noise are successfully detected and classified. The model occasionally confuses transient signals such as earthquakes and explosions and misclassifies seismicity not included in the training dataset (e.g. teleseismic earthquakes). We envision the generalized VOISS-Net model to be applicable in both research and operational volcano monitoring settings.

Volcanica

HyFlood: A surrogate-model-based framework for compound coastal flooding

Compound coastal flooding is a major threat to low-lying coastal regions and is expected to intensify under future climate change projections. However, modeling the joint interaction of waves, storm surge, tides, and rainfall remains computationally demanding, limiting the development of fast and reliable forecast tools. Here we present HyFlood, a hybrid statistical-numerical downscaling framework capable of computing and mapping high-resolution compound flood hazards while substantially reducing the computational cost compared with fully process-based hydrodynamic modeling. HyFlood combines statistical sampling and selection algorithms with a cascade of reduced-complexity surrogate models that emulate nearshore wave transformation, surf-zone hydrodynamics, and coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding. The surrogate models employ machine-learning and regression algorithms applied to a low-dimensional representation of the flooding outputs, obtained through statistical dimensionality reduction. The framework is demonstrated in southern O'ahu, Hawai'i, a region exposed to elevated sea levels driven by tides, waves, and storm surge along with frequent precipitation-driven flash flooding. Validation of the surrogates against the physics-based model outputs demonstrates that HyFlood accurately reproduces daily maxima of spatially distributed flooding depths. This hybrid approach offers a scalable and efficient tool to better quantify how changes in flooding drivers translate into hazard and impact assessments, and to support compound-flood risk assessments and climate-change adaptation planning.

Hawaii

Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is part of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands microplate, along the Caribbean–North American plate boundary between the Puerto Rico trench subduction zone and the Muertos Trough incipient subduction zone. Despite recent seismicity and geodetically constrained deformation of ~3 mm/yr of left-lateral shear across the island, Quaternary fault locations remain largely uncertain. Preservation of recent faulting in the landscape is masked by distributed faulting, high weathering rates of the tropical climate, steep topography, frequent landsliding, and extensive agriculture and urbanization along coastlines and river valleys. We present remote neotectonic mapping of historical aerial imagery from the 1930s-60s and <1-m lidar topography, integrated with field observations, to create an updated active fault map of Puerto Rico. We focus on faults that offset younger geomorphic surfaces, with ages estimated by geologic mapping, OSL and radiocarbon dating, and morphologic interpretations. We present new evidence for Quaternary activity on seven faults, including the South Lajas, Salinas, Punta Montalva, Great Southern Puerto Rico, Cerro Goden, Parguera, and San Marcos faults. We find that active faulting occurs preferentially along the southern and western coasts and does not always spatially coincide with preexisting bedrock faults, possibly reflecting partial reactivation of older faults in the modern strain field.

Puerto Rico

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Application of Hydrologic Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) as part of an integrated hydrologic model for the Salinas Valley, California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Monterey County Water Resources Agency, conducted studies to help evaluate the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Salinas Valley study area, consisting of the entire Salinas River watershed and several smaller, adjacent coastal watersheds draining into Monterey Bay. The Salinas Valley study area is a highly productive agricultural region that depends on the coordinated use of surface water and groundwater to meet demand for irrigation and public water supply. To continue to meet these demands, a better understanding of the historical water balance and the effects of water-resource development on the long-term sustainability of water resources in the Salinas Valley study area is needed.

California

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii

Preliminary depth to basement modeling at Salton Sea, California

The San Andreas Fault – Imperial Fault (SAF-IF) transtensional step-over zone along the southern margin of the Salton Sea hosts substantial geothermal production and lithium brine resources. Recent volcanism at the Salton Buttes and active seismicity along the SAFIF fault system highlight active tectonic and magmatic processes that pose natural hazards and may impact energy and mineral production. Characterizing the subsurface architecture and extent of concealed alteration associated with this tectono-magmatic system enhances understanding of these active processes, associated hazards, and resources. We have compiled a gravity database, consisting of new and re-processed existing data, from which we have constructed a new isostatic residual gravity anomaly map of the Salton trough. We have used this new gravity dataset together with a compilation of publicly available borehole data to develop new depth to basement inversion models for the region. These depth to basement models help to constrain basin geometries, inform alteration mapping, and reveal variations in basement rocks. Due to the concealed nature of the complex tectonic framework at the Salton trough, it is necessary to utilize geophysical methods for subsurface characterization. These new depth to basement models are a first step toward constructing 2D and 3D geophysical and geologic models of the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea geothermal area. This analysis complements other geophysical initiatives, including magnetotelluric (MT) modeling (Tokmakoff et al., 2024), magnetic mapping (Glen and Earney, 2023, 2024) and potential field modeling, and seismic studies focused on hazard and resource investigations in the Imperial Valley.

California

Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model

Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, that provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike-slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can impact hazard both from a site perspective and on a regional scale, increasing shaking off the end of the fault trace up to 30--40\% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period (>ls) near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10--20\%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations, to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.

Earthquake Spectra

Agricultural return flow dynamics on a reach of the East River, Colorado, as assessed by mass balance

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, studied historical streamflow in a reach of the East River, Colorado, to gain a preliminary understanding of return flow dynamics. Return flow is agricultural irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and instead reaches streams by surface and subsurface flow paths. The study reach had a contributing area of 50 square miles and contained 5.23 square miles of pastures irrigated with water diverted from the East River and its tributaries. By comparing upstream inflows to downstream outflows, the net water balance of the study reach from 1994 to 2023 was assessed. Two general hydrologic conditions for the study reach were identified. One hydrologic condition was characterized by a net loss or consumption of water, termed here as general deficit. This general deficit condition extended about 16 years, from 1997 to 2012. During general deficit years, there was usually a notable net loss of streamflow from April through July, and a small net gain, possibly related to return flows, occurred in August about 75 days after the minimums for losses. The second hydrologic condition was characterized by a net gain of water, termed here as general surplus. This second condition extended about 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. During general surplus years, two separate transitions from net loss to net gain commonly occurred during June through August. Losses during general surplus years were smaller than losses during general deficit years, the respective gains were larger, and times between losses and gains were about 18 and 22 days. Differences between the two hydrologic conditions could reflect interactions among irrigation water, available capacity to store additional shallow groundwater, and streamflow. However, deciphering the causes for the shifts between the two general hydrologic conditions was beyond the scope of this report.

Colorado

Acid-rain weathering of a metasedimentary rock basin, Herkimer County, New York

A geochemical balance of major chemical constituents of precipitation inflow with those of surface-water outflow was used to evaluate the effect of acid rainfall (average pH = 4.3) on weathering rates of metasedimentary rocks underlying a surface-water basin in New York State. Precipitation samples and surface-water samples show that approximately 45 percent of the net cation outflow is due to weathering by precipitation acidity. The remaining 55 percent of the cation load in the outflow is attributed to interactions between atmosphere, rock, and soil water in the unsaturated zone. Comparison of the acidity of acid precipitation and air-equilibrated distilled water suggests that since preindustrial time, precipitation acidity has probably increased weathering rates for this basin approximately 75 percent. The increased acidity of the precipitation may also increase the rate of dissolution of heavy metals from water-piping systems.

New York

A journey to the center of the USGS National Strong-motion Project processing and beyond

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) has the primary U.S. government responsibility to acquire, process, and disseminate significant strong-motion earthquake ground motion records measured at surficial free-field stations, structures (buildings, dams, and bridges, and geotechnical arrays to the earthquake engineering community. As a result of the deployment of modern seismic instrumentation and growth of tools such as web-services, earthquake data from U.S. and international seismic networks are more accessible than ever. Our mission is to provide raw and processed strong-motion waveforms with PGA values greater than 0.1%g for M3.0 earthquakes and larger in California and M4.0 and larger within the conterminous US, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska. Datasets of interest to the engineering and geophysics communities, such as event sequences in areas of induced seismicity and significant global events, are also processed and posted at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at strongmotioncenter.org when available through collaboration with the international strong-motion data community. Here we outline (1) the NSMP’s current workflow to acquire, process, and distribute data at CESMD; (2) our new endeavours and collaborations focusing on comparison and integration of waveform processing software, development of techniques for metadata quality checks before and after earthquakes, and construction of a dynamic site characterization repository; and (3) our topics for possible collaboration topics across the global strong-motion community.

Conference Paper

Geology and mineral deposits of the Needle Mountains District, Southwestern Colorado

The Needle Mountains district is set in highly fractured Precambrian granitic rocks that have intruded and metamorphosed older Precambrian metasedimentary rocks. The Precambrian rocks are overlain by outliers of Paleozoic strata and intruded by a late Tertiary stock. Past mineral production reportedly was limited to silver and gold ores presumably taken from small fissure veins. Although the economic potential of the district has not been adequately explored, some evidence indicates potential for base metal deposits.

Colorado

Site-specific, extended ShakeMaps for earthquake engineering applications

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely produces ShakeMaps of shaking intensity across the globe. Due to practical constraints, the number of response spectral periods was limited to three standard periods (0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 sec). We have recently developed the tools that are necessary to expand this functionality to include 22 periods (matching the current U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model periods) as well as the orientation-independent components (e.g., “RotD50”). We refer to ShakeMap products that include these extensions as “extended ShakeMaps.” The added level of complexity motivated us to also develop a user-friendly tool called the “ShakeMap Sampling Tool” (SST) that gives all the estimated shaking metrics for a specific location (or list of locations). Additionally, we develop a web application where users can input locations of interest and view/download the SST results. We further familiarize users with the concept of “Composite ShakeMaps.” For earthquakes sequences such as a mainshock and larger foreshocks and aftershocks, this provides a map of the maximum value of each shaking metric, which is useful for overall loss estimates, the full extent of ground failure triggering potential, and a better portrayal of the repeated shaking levels at a given point for a series of earthquakes. Such a site-specific shaking history facilitates earthquake forensics at building or infrastructure sites for which damage may be of concern, as described in the Disproportionate Damage Earthquake trigger specified in the IEBC (2018, Section 405.2.2) and in developing ATC-145 guidelines (Guidelines for Post-Earthquake Assessment, Repair, and Retrofit of Buildings). The composite ShakeMap can be combined with the SST for a variety of earthquake-hazard applications, such as systematically inferring triggering shaking estimates at specific sites of geotechnical interest for landsliding, liquefaction, and lateral-spreading hazards.

Kahramanmaraş

ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System performance during the Mw 7.0 offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The 5 December 2024 M w 7.0 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake was a challenging test of the U.S. West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system due to its offshore epicenter and limited near‐source station coverage. We analyzed real‐time performance of all components of the ShakeAlert system, including the seismic algorithms (earthquake point‐source integrated code [EPIC] and Finite‐fault rupture Detector [FinDer]), the geodetic algorithm (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time–peak ground displacement [GFAST‐PGD]), and network telemetry during the event. EPIC created the first solution for this earthquake 15 s after origin time with an initial magnitude estimate of M 5.6 and location error of 10 km from the Advanced National Seismic System epicenter. An early spurious trigger from station CE.89101 fortuitously maintained location accuracy and, correspondingly, magnitude accuracy. FinDer contributed its first solution at 18 s with a location estimate closer to the seismic network and produced two distinct rupture geometries, leading to minor fluctuations in estimated intensity contours. GFAST‐PGD did not meet alerting thresholds but otherwise performed as expected. Network latencies were <2 s for most stations, supporting the rapid detection of this earthquake by the system. Roughly five million alerts were delivered to cell phone devices in California and Oregon during this event. This was also the first instance of a school district‐wide ShakeAlert‐powered system being activated. Comparisons to recorded seismograms demonstrate that the maximum warning times before potentially damaging shaking (intensity 6+) were in the range of 5–55 s. Although the ShakeAlert system provided accurate solutions and useful alert delivery, this earthquake raised awareness of potential issues within the system, including the need for improved offshore location estimates, a combination of solutions from ShakeAlert servers, and handling of spurious triggers.

California

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California

Subaerially exposed Iceberg Lake sediments: An exceptional record of historical subaqueous earthquake disturbance at the eastern edge of the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone

Paleoseismic records are limited in the Yakutat Terrane (eastern edge of the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone) due to the extensive ice cover that hinders traditional methods such as trenching of the faults, but lacustrine sediments offer an alternative archive. We investigated lakebed sediments exposed after recent outburst floods (1999 CE) at Iceberg Lake, a glacier-dammed basin whose stratigraphy was revealed after the lake drained and partially eroded. We logged outcrops across the basin and sampled their sediments. Between annually laminated background deposits, we identified sediment gravity flow beds and in-situ soft-sediment deformation structures (convolutions, sand blows, and fractures) interpreted to be earthquake-induced. Our age model links some of the uppermost depositional and deformational events to the 1958, 1964 and 1979 CE earthquakes. These results demonstrate that Iceberg Lake was a sensitive recorder of seismic shaking and its sediments hold strong potential for producing a paleoseismic record for the northern Yakutat Terrane.

Alaska

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Distribution functions for statistics derived from bivariate normal and bivariate two-parameter log-normal populations

The distribution functions for statistics that may be used to assess the significance of differences between sample means, standard deviations, coefficients of skewness, and coefficients of variation are obtained by Monte Carlo experiments. The distributions are expressed as functions of sample size, cross correlation, and skewness. In general, the distributions are more sensitive to cross correlation than to skewness. As sample size increases, however, the distributions tend to become more sensitive to skewness.

Open-File Report