SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate Change Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,513 records · Page 84Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Hydrologic variability and the application of Index of Biotic Integrity metrics to wetlands: a Great Lakes evaluation

Interest by land-management and regulatory agencies in using biological indicators to detect wetland degradation, coupled with ongoing use of this approach to assess water quality in streams, led to the desire to develop and evaluate an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for wetlands that could be used to categorize the level of degradation. We undertook this challenge with data from coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes, which have been degraded by a variety of human disturbances. We studied six barrier beach wetlands in western Lake Superior, six drowned-river-mouth wetlands along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, and six open shoreline wetlands in Saginaw Bay of Lake Huron. Plant, fish, and invertebrate communities were sampled in each wetland. The resulting data were assessed in various forms against gradients of human disturbance to identify potential metrics that could be used in IBI development. Our results suggested that the metrics proposed as potential components of an IBI for barrier beach wetlands of Lake Superior held promise. The metrics for Lake Michigan drowned-river-mouth wetlands were inconsistent in identifying gradients of disturbance; those for Lake Huron open embayment wetlands were yet more inconsistent. Despite the potential displayed by the Lake Superior results within the year sampled, we concluded that an IBI for use in Great Lakes wetlands would not be valid unless separate scoring ranges were derived for each of several sequences of water-level histories. Variability in lake levels from year to year can produce variability in data and affect the reproducibility of data collected, primarily due to extreme changes in plant communities and the faunal habitat they provide. Substantially different results could be obtained in the same wetland in different years as a result of the response to lake-level change, with no change in the level of human disturbance. Additional problems included limited numbers of comparable sites, potential lack of undisturbed reference sites, and variable effects of different disturbance types. We also evaluated our conclusions with respect to hydrologic variability and other major natural disturbances affecting wetlands in other regions. We concluded that after segregation of wetland types by geographic, geomorphic, and hydrologic features, a functional IBI may be possible for wetlands with relatively stable hydrology. However, an IBI for wetlands with unpredictable yet recurring influences of climate-induced, long-term high water periods, droughts, or drought-related fires or weather-related catastrophic floods or high winds (hurricanes) would also require differing scales of measurement for years that differ in the length of time since the last major natural disturbance. A site-specific, detailed ecological analysis of biological indicators may indeed be of value in determining the quality or status of wetlands, but we recommend that IBI scores not be used unless the scoring ranges are calibrated for the specific hydrologic history pre-dating any sampling year.

Wetlands↗

USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS2017

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

California↗

USGS2011

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2024

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2023. Included in this update are changes in terminology. Specifically, we now use the terms Period 1 (previously Long), Period 2 (previously Medium/Long), Period 3 (previously Medium), Period 4 (previously Short/Medium), Period 5 (previously Short), and Period 6 (previously Recent) to identify specific trends. State-space models estimated 2.8-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.1 and 3.1 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Population growth during 2022 and 2023 continue to point to 2021 as the most recent range-wide nadir.

Data Report↗

USGS2018

A regional analysis of long-term gray and harbor seal stranding events

Strong indicators of species’ sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability to climate change are provided by changes in phenology, the timing of recurring life events (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). We possess poor information on climate induced shifts in phenology of marine organisms, especially top predators. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) Seasonal Migrants Project is an ongoing effort to determine the phenological changes occurring in the GOM across marine mammals, sea turtles, and other marine species of conservation concern. As part of that study, stranding data of injured or dead animals was explored for its utility to serve as supplemental data to amend more traditional survey data where observations are scarce. NOAA’s Greater Atlantic Region Marine Mammal Stranding Network Database was examined for its utility as a potential long-term time series for the evaluation of phenological patterns and shifts. Although records from stranding events represent sick or injured animals, these data have been found to be reasonably comparable to survey data and provide useful information on species’ distribution, abundance, and foraging ecology (Maldini et al., 2005; Staudinger et al., 2014; Johnston et al., 2012, 2015). In this study, we focused on stranding data of two marine mammal species, harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and gray seals (Halichoerus grypus). It was anticipated these data would also be good indicators of the areas and habitats that seal populations use on a seasonal and annual basis in the region. Viable stranding data from Maine to North Carolina included 1,571 gray seals and 4,399 harbor seals from 2001 to 2015. This paper presents a summary of the spatial and temporal patterns of these data, and suggests their suitability as supplemental data to other GOM marine species phenological studies, such as the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium database modeling efforts.

Report↗

USGS2024

Climate vulnerability assessment of Oregon hatchery programs

The goal of this project was to assess the vulnerability to climate change impacts for a sample set of hatchery programs representing different geographic areas and primary anadromous species raised in state-managed Oregon hatcheries (Summary Figure 1). Freshwater and marine ecosystem processes can significantly influence salmon and steelhead survival, and understanding how these factors have affected historical returns can help managers evaluate the climate vulnerability of hatchery stocks. We examined stock-specific trends in smolt-to-adult returns (SARs), which represent the proportion of smolts released from the hatchery that are recovered in fisheries or as returning adult spawners. SARs are among the most consistent long term estimators of survival for hatchery-origin stocks. Depending on the stock, adult recoveries could occur in marine fisheries, freshwater fisheries, returns to the hatchery or another collection facility, and spawning ground surveys. We collected time series data on relevant ecological indicators and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore both univariate and multivariate relationships with SARs for each hatchery stock. An additional aspect of this assessment was to evaluate the climate vulnerability of resident trout stocking programs in the Department's East and West regions, incorporating insights from Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) staff interviews and published data on the thermal tolerance of hatchery trout stocks. This assessment is provided in the ‘Climate vulnerability of trout stocking programs’ subsection below.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Importance of scale, land cover, and weather on the abundance of bird species in a managed forest

Climate change and habitat loss are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. While public lands have the potential to increase regional resilience of bird populations to these threats, long-term data are necessary to document species responses to changes in climate and habitat to better understand population vulnerabilities. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine the importance of stand-level characteristics, multi-scale land cover, and annual weather factors to the abundance of 61 bird species over a 20-year time frame in Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, USA. Of the 61 species modeled, we were able to build final models with R-squared values that ranged from 26% to 69% for 37 species; the remaining 24 species models had issues with convergence or low explanatory power (R-squared < 20%). Models for the 37 species show that stand-level characteristics, land cover factors, and annual weather effects on species abundance were species-specific and varied within guilds. Forty-one percent of the final species models included stand-level characteristics, 92% included land cover variables at the 200 m scale, 51% included land cover variables at the 500 m scale, 46% included land cover variables at the 1000 m scale, and 38% included weather variables in best models. Three species models (8%) included significant weather and land cover interaction terms. Overall, models indicated that aboveground tree biomass and land cover variables drove changes in the majority of species. Of those species models including weather variables, more included annual variation in precipitation or drought than temperature. Annual weather variability was significantly more likely to impact abundance of species associated with deciduous forests and bird species that are considered climate sensitive. The long-term data and models we developed are particularly suited to informing science-based adaptive forest management plans that incorporate climate sensitivity, aim to conserve large areas of forest habitat, and maintain an historical mosaic of cover types for conserving a diverse and abundant avian assemblage.

Minnesota↗

USGS2015

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods . Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle) . During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail , and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered . However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods . Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms , perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements , is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses , understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

Current Biology↗

USGS2007

Presence and significance of chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and other amphibian pathogens at warm-water fish hatcheries in southeastern North America

Amphibian populations and species are declining or disappearing from many regions throughout the world (Stuart et al. 2004). No single cause has been demonstrated, although a number of emerging infectious diseases have been suggested as primary etiologic agents (Berger et al. 1998; Daszak et al. 2003; Lips et al. 2006). Several factors, including climate change, parasite infestation or compromised immune systems may interact locally or regionally to threaten species and populations (Carey and Bryant 1995; Parris and Beaudoin 2004; Pounds et al. 2006). Still, the disease model of amphibian decline may not be universally applicable (Daszak et al. 2005; McCallum 2005). The impacts of disease can devastate anuran populations, and declines due to disease, particularly amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, “BD”) and ranaviruses (Berger et al. 1998; Chinchar 2002), are well documented (Daszak et al. 2003; Kiesecker et al. 2004). In addition to the better-known fungi and viruses, an undescribed Perkinsus-like organism also has had serious localized effects on populations of ranid frogs in southeastern North America (e.g. Rana sevosa in Mississippi, various Florida species; unpublished data). In North America, warm water fish hatcheries supply stock for sport fishing, ecological restoration, and endangered species management. Several million fish may be transported across multiple regions and river drainages in a single restocking event. For example, in 2004 three million bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), originating from Orangeburg National Fish Hatchery (NFH), South Carolina were stocked at Harris Neck National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Georgia as food for a nesting colony of endangered wood storks. This stocking in 2004 transported fish from the upper coastal plain across the Savannah River to the lower coastal plain, and may be responsible for mixing different larval phenotypes of Rana catesbeiana at Harris Neck (Dodd and Barichivich 2007). Our objective was to determine whether diseases known to have detrimental effects on amphibians (ranavirus, BD, mesomycetozoa, protozoa and helminths) are present in amphibian larvae living in warm-water fish hatcheries in the southeastern United States. We further examined hatchery records to assess the extent to which amphibian larvae have been transported throughout various regions and potentially contribute to spreading emerging infectious diseases.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South C↗

USGS2019

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated-detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit only improved insignificantly when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red-eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. Our results estimating a weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicate that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change changing the distributions of these species and, more significantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2006

Populations and habitat relationships of Piute ground squirrels in southwest Idaho

Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis idahoensis) are normally above ground from late January until late June or early July in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. In 2002 they were rarely seen above ground after early May. Because of the ecological importance of ground squirrels for nesting raptors and other species, we sought to determine the reasons for their early disappearance. We sampled 12 sites from January 2003 through March 2003 to determine if a population crash had occurred in 2002. Tests indicated that Piute ground squirrels had not been exposed to plague within the past year. The presence of yearlings in the population indicated that squirrels reproduced in 2002 and that at least some yearlings survived the winter. Both yearling and adult squirrels appeared to be reproducing at or above normal rates in 2003. The most plausible explanation for the early disappearance of Piute ground squirrels in 2002 is that squirrels entered seasonal torpor early in response to a late spring drought. In addition, the breeding chronology of squirrels may have shifted during the past 2 decades in response to climate change and/or habitat alteration. Shrub habitats provide a more favorable and stable environment for squirrels than grass habitats. Squirrel abundance was higher on live-trapping grids with sagebrush than on grids dominated by grass, and squirrel masses were higher at sites dominated by shrubs and Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). Densities in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were within the ranges reported for earlier years, but densities in grass were lower than previously reported. Low densities at grassland sites in 2003 support other findings that drought affects squirrels in altered grass communities more than those in native shrub habitats. Long-term shifts in ground squirrel breeding chronology may have implications for raptors that depend on them for food.

Western North American Naturalist↗

USGS2017

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon ( Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores ( I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO 2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO 2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

New Mexico↗

USGS2016

Conservation of native Pacific trout diversity in western North America

Pacific trout Oncorhynchus spp. in western North America are strongly valued in ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural views, and have been the subject of substantial research and conservation efforts. Despite this, the understanding of their evolutionary histories, overall diversity, and challenges to their conservation is incomplete. We review the state of knowledge on these important issues, focusing on Pacific trout in the genus Oncorhynchus. Although most research on salmonid fishes emphasizes Pacific salmon, we focus on Pacific trout because they share a common evolutionary history, and many taxa in western North America have not been formally described, particularly in the southern extent of their ranges. Research in recent decades has led to the revision of many hypotheses concerning the origin and diversification of Pacific trout throughout their range. Although there has been significant success at addressing past threats to Pacific trout, contemporary and future threats represented by nonnative species, land and water use activities, and climate change pose challenges and uncertainties. Ultimately, conservation of Pacific trout depends on how well these issues are understood and addressed, and on solutions that allow these species to coexist with a growing scope of human influences.

Fisheries↗

USGS2013

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: Work Plan

The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant aquatic and terrestrial species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change (Change Agents) currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements. We selected 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages to be included as Conservation Elements. We will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. The purpose of the work plan for the Wyoming Basin REA is to document the selection process for, and final list of, Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents. The work plan also presents the overall assessment framework that will be used to assess the status of Conservation Elements and answer Management Questions.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Evidence for interactions among environmental stressors in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Co-occurrence of environmental stressors is ubiquitous in ecosystems, but cumulative effects are difficult to predict for effective indicator development. Individual stressors can amplify (synergies) or lessen (antagonisms) each other's impacts or have fully independent effects (additive). Here we use the Laurentian Great Lakes, where a multitude of stressors have been studied for decades, as a case study for considering insights from both a systematic literature review and an expert elicitation (or structured expert judgment) to identify stressor interactions. In our literature search for pairs of stressors and interaction-related keywords, relatively few studies (9%, or 6/65) supported additive interactions with independent stressor effects. Instead, both antagonisms (42%, or 27/65) and synergies (49%, or 32/65) were common. We found substantial evidence for interactions of invasive dreissenid mussels with nutrient loading and between pairs of invasive species (predominantly dreissenids × round goby), yet both sets of records included mixtures of synergies and antagonisms. Complete quantification of individual and joint effects of stressors was rare, but effect sizes for dreissenid mussels × nutrient loading supported an antagonism. Our expert elicitation included discussion in focus groups and a follow-up survey. This process highlighted the potential for synergies of nutrient loading with dreissenid mussels and climate change as seen from the literature review. The elicitation also identified additional potential interactions less explored in the literature, particularly synergies of nutrient loading with hypoxia and wetland loss. To stimulate future research, we built a conceptual model describing interactions among dreissenid mussels, climate change, and nutrient loading. Our case study illustrates the value of considering results from both elicitations and systematic reviews to overcome data limitations. The simultaneous occurrence of synergies and antagonisms in a single ecosystem underscores the challenge of predicting the cumulative effects of stressors to guide indicator development and other management and restoration decisions.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2024

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary-spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary-spanning activities could support proactive, research-informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary-spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non-members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non-members and short-term members more frequently identifying range-shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long-term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range-shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real-world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary-spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗