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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources
USGS1985

Possible precipitation of ice at low latitudes of Mars during periods of high obliquity

Most of the old cratered highlands of Mars are dissected by branching river valleys that appear to have been cut by running water1,2 yet liquid water is unstable everywhere on the martian surface. In the equatorial region, where most of the valleys are observed, even ice is unstable3,4. It has been suggested, therefore, that Mars had an early denser atmosphere with sufficient greenhouse warming to allow the existence of liquid water 5. Here, we suggest instead that during periods of very high obliquities, ice could accumulate at low latitudes as a result of sustained sublimation of ice from the poles and transport of the water vapour equatorwards. At low latitudes, the water vapour would saturate the atmosphere and condense onto the surface where it would accumulate until lower obliquities prevailed. The mechanism is efficient only at the very high obliquities that occurred before formation of Tharsis very early in the planet's history, but limited equatorial ice accumulation could also have occurred at the highest obliquities during the rest of the planet's history. Partial melting of the ice could have provided runoff to form the channels or replenish the groundwater system. ?? 1985 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature↗
USGS2002

Evidence from the AD 2000 Izu islands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity

Magma intrusions and eruptions commonly produce abrupt changes in seismicity far from magma conduits 1,2,3,4 that cannot be associated with the diffusion of pore fluids or heat 5 . Such ‘swarm’ seismicity also migrates with time, and often exhibits a ‘dog-bone’-shaped distribution 3,4,6,7,8,9 . The largest earthquakes in swarms produce aftershocks that obey an Omori-type (exponential) temporal decay 10,11,12 , but the duration of the aftershock sequences is drastically reduced, relative to normal earthquake activity 7,13 . Here we use one of the most energetic swarms ever recorded to study the dependence of these properties on the stress imparted by a magma intrusion 8,11,14,15 . A 1,000-fold increase in seismicity rate and a 1,000-fold decrease in aftershock duration occurred during the two-month-long dyke intrusion. We find that the seismicity rate is proportional to the calculated stressing rate, and that the duration of aftershock sequences is inversely proportional to the stressing rate. This behaviour is in accord with a laboratory-based rate/state constitutive law 16 , suggesting an explanation for the occurrence of earthquake swarms. Any sustained increase in stressing rate—whether due to an intrusion, extrusion or creep event—should produce such seismological behaviour.

Izu Islands↗
USGS2005

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Water availability on the continents is important for human health , economic activity , ecosystem function and geophysical processes . Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming . Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Nature↗
USGS2006

Dynamics of seismogenic volcanic extrusion at Mount St Helens in 2004-05

The 2004-05 eruption of Mount St Helens exhibited sustained, near-equilibrium behaviour characterized by relatively steady extrusion of a solid dacite plug and nearly periodic shallow earthquakes. Here we present a diverse data set to support our hypothesis that these earthquakes resulted from stick-slip motion along the margins of the plug as it was forced incrementally upwards by ascending, solidifying, gas-poor magma. We formalize this hypothesis with a dynamical model that reveals a strong analogy between behaviour of the magma-plug system and that of a variably damped oscillator. Modelled stick-slip oscillations have properties that help constrain the balance of forces governing the earthquakes and eruption, and they imply that magma pressure never deviated much from the steady equilibrium pressure. We infer that the volcano was probably poised in a near-eruptive equilibrium state long before the onset of the 2004-05 eruption. ??2006 Nature Publishing Group.

Washington↗
USGS2015

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Indo-Pacific region↗
USGS2012

Land use alters the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to drought

Soils deliver several ecosystem services including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are of central importance to climate mitigation and sustainable food production. Soil biota play an important role in carbon and nitrogen cycling, and, although the effects of land use on soil food webs are well documented the consequences for their resistance and resilience to climate change are not known. We compared the resistance and resilience to drought--which is predicted to increase under climate change of soil food webs of two common land-use systems: intensively managed wheat with a bacterial-based soil food web and extensively managed grassland with a fungal-based soil food web. We found that the fungal-based food web, and the processes of C and N loss it governs, of grassland soil was more resistant, although not resilient, and better able to adapt to drought than the bacterial-based food web of wheat soil. Structural equation modelling revealed that fungal-based soil food webs and greater microbial evenness mitigated C and N loss. Our findings show that land use strongly affects the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to climate change, and that extensively managed grassland promotes more resistant, and adaptable, fungal-based soil food webs.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2012

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2014

Hydrological effects of forest transpiration loss in bark beetle-impacted watersheds

The recent climate-exacerbated mountain pine beetle infestation in the Rocky Mountains of North America has resulted in tree death that is unprecedented in recorded history. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity inherent in insect infestation creates a complex and often unpredictable watershed response, influencing the primary storage and flow components of the hydrologic cycle. Despite the increased vulnerability of forested ecosystems under changing climate 1 , watershed-scale implications of interception, ground evaporation, and transpiration changes remain relatively unknown, with conflicting reports of streamflow perturbations across regions. Here, contributions to streamflow are analysed through time and space to investigate the potential for increased groundwater inputs resulting from hydrologic change after infestation. Results demonstrate that fractional late-summer groundwater contributions from impacted watersheds are 30 ± 15% greater after infestation and when compared with a neighbouring watershed that experienced earlier and less-severe attack, albeit uncertainty propagations through time and space are considerable. Water budget analysis confirms that transpiration loss resulting from beetle kill can account for the relative increase in groundwater contributions to streams, often considered the sustainable flow fraction and critical to mountain water supplies and ecosystems.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history . Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle . We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy ’ s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology , to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy ’ s law indicates today ’ s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy ’ s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy ’ s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today ’ s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2016

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2016

Slow-moving and far-travelled dense pyroclastic flows during the Peach Spring super-eruption

Explosive volcanic super-eruptions of several hundred cubic kilometres or more generate long run-out pyroclastic density currents the dynamics of which are poorly understood and controversial. Deposits of one such event in the southwestern USA, the 18.8 Ma Peach Spring Tuff, were formed by pyroclastic flows that travelled >170   km from the eruptive centre and entrained blocks up to ~70–90   cm diameter from the substrates along the flow paths. Here we combine these data with new experimental results to show that the flow’s base had high-particle concentration and relatively modest speeds of ~5–20   m   s −1 , fed by an eruption discharging magma at rates up to ~10 7 –10 8   m 3   s −1 for a minimum of 2.5–10   h. We conclude that sustained high-eruption discharge and long-lived high-pore pressure in dense granular dispersion can be more important than large initial velocity and turbulent transport with dilute suspension in promoting long pyroclastic flow distance.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2016

Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2013

Frictional-faulting model for harmonic tremor before Redoubt Volcano eruptions

Seismic unrest, indicative of subsurface magma transport and pressure changes within fluid-filled cracks and conduits, often precedes volcanic eruptions. An intriguing form of volcano seismicity is harmonic tremor, that is, sustained vibrations in the range of 0.5–5 Hz. Many source processes can generate harmonic tremor. Harmonic tremor in the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, has been linked to repeating earthquakes of magnitudes around 0.5–1.5 that occur a few kilometres beneath the vent. Before many explosions in that eruption, these small earthquakes occurred in such rapid succession—up to 30 events per second—that distinct seismic wave arrivals blurred into continuous, high-frequency tremor. Tremor abruptly ceased about 30 s before the explosions. Here we introduce a frictional-faulting model to evaluate the credibility and implications of this tremor mechanism. We find that the fault stressing rates rise to values ten orders of magnitude higher than in typical tectonic settings. At that point, inertial effects stabilize fault sliding and the earthquakes cease. Our model of the Redoubt Volcano observations implies that the onset of volcanic explosions is preceded by active deformation and extreme stressing within a localized region of the volcano conduit, at a depth of several kilometres.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Localized damage associated with topographic amplification during the 12 January 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake

Local geological conditions, including both near-surface sedimentary layers 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and topographic features 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , are known to significantly influence ground motions caused by earthquakes. Microzonation maps use local geological conditions to characterize seismic hazard, but commonly incorporate the effect of only sedimentary layers 10 , 11 , 12 . Microzonation does not take into account local topography, because significant topographic amplification is assumed to be rare. Here we show that, although the extent of structural damage in the 2010 Haiti earthquake was primarily due to poor construction, topographic amplification contributed significantly to damage in the district of Petionville, south of central Port-au-Prince. A large number of substantial, relatively well-built structures situated along a foothill ridge in this district sustained serious damage or collapse. Using recordings of aftershocks, we calculate the ground motion response at two seismic stations along the topographic ridge and at two stations in the adjacent valley. Ground motions on the ridge are amplified relative to both sites in the valley and a hard-rock reference site, and thus cannot be explained by sediment-induced amplification. Instead, the amplitude and predominant frequencies of ground motion indicate the amplification of seismic waves by a narrow, steep ridge. We suggest that microzonation maps can potentially be significantly improved by incorporation of topographic effects.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2019

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of Amazon hydropower with strategic dam planning

Hundreds of dams have been proposed throughout the Amazon basin, one of the world’s largest untapped hydropower frontiers. While hydropower is a potentially clean source of renewable energy, some projects produce high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit electricity generated (carbon intensity). Here we show how carbon intensities of proposed Amazon upland dams (median = 39 kg CO 2 eq MWh −1 , 100-year horizon) are often comparable with solar and wind energy, whereas some lowland dams (median = 133 kg CO 2 eq MWh −1 ) may exceed carbon intensities of fossil-fuel power plants. Based on 158 existing and 351 proposed dams, we present a multi-objective optimization framework showing that low-carbon expansion of Amazon hydropower relies on strategic planning, which is generally linked to placing dams in higher elevations and smaller streams. Ultimately, basin-scale dam planning that considers GHG emissions along with social and ecological externalities will be decisive for sustainable energy development where new hydropower is contemplated.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2023

An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO 2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of grasslands on the Plateau, but only in areas below the stocking rate threshold. Our analysis suggests that stocking rate that does not exceed 60% (within 50% to 70%) of the threshold may balance human demands with grassland protection in the face of climate change.

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau↗
USGS2024

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Nature Communications↗