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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Assessing environmental influences on gene flow for a migratory ungulate in a fire-prone landscape

Context Migratory species traverse long distances across complex landscape mosaics. Shifts in environmental attributes across space and time could affect movement paths and genetic connectivity of migratory species. Objectives We identified boundaries to genetic connectivity based on population structure and evaluated environmental influences on gene flow in a migratory ungulate. We projected how genetic connectivity might be affected by actual wildfire events. Methods We collected over 168,400 GPS locations for 97 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) and estimated kinship with 5,140 single nucleotide polymorphisms for 95 individuals. We identified subpopulations and employed machine-learning optimization to evaluate how environmental attributes affect gene flow between them. We projected future genetic connectivity based on recent landscape changes. Results We observed that water bodies and > 70% canopy cover may limit effective dispersal, suggesting that shifts in these landscape attributes, influenced by climate and vegetation management, may affect future gene flow. We also predicted recent wildfire events will change gene flow between three subpopulations, predicting more flow where fire reduced canopy cover at a pinchpoint near a linear lake and less flow where fire was internal to the subpopulation. Conclusions Modifications in canopy cover could be applied to facilitate or impede connectivity and gene flow, depending on management goals. Large, semi-linear lakes could form movement barriers in other bighorn populations. Recent wildfires will likely increase gene flow between semi-isolated subpopulations, with implications for disease management. As wildfire and tree encroachment and densification increase, gene flow between other spatially structured populations in similar landscapes may shift.

British Columbia, Montana↗

USGS2015

Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

Plant Ecology↗

USGS2018

Effect of cattle exclosures on Columbia Spotted Frog abundance

Livestock grazing is an important land use in the western USA and can have positive or negative effects on amphibians. Columbia Spotted Frog ( Rana luteiventris ) often use ponds that provide water for cattle. We conducted a long-term manipulative study on US Forest Service land in northeastern Oregon to determine the effects of full and partial exclosures that limited cattle access to ponds used by frogs. We found weak evidence of a short-term increase in abundance that did not differ between full and partial exclosures and that diminished with continuing exclusion of cattle. The benefit of exclosures was small relative to the overall decline in breeding numbers that we documented. This suggests that some protection can provide a short-term boost to populations.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

USGS1995

Can otolith microchemistry chart patterns of migration and habitat utilization in anadromous fishes?

Seasonal and ontogenetic patterns in estuarine and coastal migrations of anadromous fish species have important consequences to their survival, growth, recruitment, and reproduction. We tested the hypothesis that otolith (sagitta) microchemistry can document the environmental history of individual fish across an estuarine salinity gradient. Juvenile striped bass, Morone saxatilis (Walbaum), (80 days posthatch) were reared for 3 wk in aquaria at two temperatures and six salinities. The ratio of strontium/calcium ( Sr Ca "> SrCa ) deposited in the sagittal otoliths of reared juveniles was positively related to salinity. Temperature and growth rate had relatively minor, but significant effects on the Sr Ca "> SrCa ratio. In a second experiment, juveniles (80 days posthatch) were exposed to increasing salinity (0 ppt to 25 ppt) and then decreasing salinity (25 ppt to 0 ppt) over a 20-wk period. Electron microprobe examination of the otoliths from these juveniles showed a gradual rise and decline in Sr Ca "> SrCa during the experimental period which corresponded directly with experimental changes in salinity. Field data on subadult and adult striped bass corroborated the laboratory analyses and indicated a logistic relationship between ambient salinity and otolith Sr Ca "> SrCa ratio. Verification studies support the use of otolith microchemistry to measure migratory schedules and habitat utilization patterns in anadromous striped bass populations.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology↗

USGS2024

Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian

For species with complex life histories, climate change can have contrasting effects for different life stages within locally adapted populations and may result in responses counter to general climate change predictions. Using data from two, 14-year demographic studies for a North American montane amphibian, Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ), we quantified how aspects of current climate influenced annual survival of larvae and adult stages and modeled the stochastic population growth rate (λ s ) of each population for current (1980–2006) and future periods (2080s). Climate drivers of survival for the populations were similar for larvae (i.e., decreases in precipitation lead to pond drying and mortality), but diverged for terrestrial stages where decreases in winter length and summer precipitation had opposite effects. By the 2080s, we predict one population will be in sharp decline (λ s = 0.90), while the other population will remain nearly stable (λ s = 0.99) in the absence of other stressors, such as mortality due to disease. Our case study demonstrates a result counter to many climate envelope predictions in that stage-specific responses to local climate and hydrology result in a higher extinction risk for the more northern population.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2007

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2006

Effects of structural complexity enhancement on eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) populations in northern hardwood forests

Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement and the two uneven-aged approaches maintained important microhabitat characteristics for red-backed salamander populations in the short term. Over the long-term, given decay processes as a determinant of biological availability, forestry practices such as SCE that enhance CWD availability and recruitment may result in associated population responses. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2023

Differential shortstopping behaviour in Whooping Cranes: Habitat or social learning?

Many migratory bird species have begun shifting their wintering grounds closer to their breeding grounds, shortening their yearly migration distance through a behavior called shortstopping. While multiple studies have investigated possible drivers, it remains unclear why only some populations adopt this behavior. We studied the differential occurrence of shortstopping in two populations of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana): a remnant population where juveniles migrate with their parents, and a reintroduced population consisting largely of captive-reared birds trained to migrate by unrelated conspecifics or by humans. Shortstopping is widespread in the reintroduced population, while the remnant population has not shown any appreciable northward movement of its overwintering sites. We examined potential drivers for this lack of shortstopping, including a lack of suitable habitat north of their current wintering area or social differences between populations. Using characteristics of winter locations used by the reintroduced population, we found that 31.4% of the remnant migration corridor was predicted to be suitable for wintering, suggesting that insufficient habitat suitability is not limiting shortstopping behaviour. However, we found evidence for behavioural differences that might explain the absence of shortstopping in the remnant population: while all juveniles of the remnant population associate with their parents during overwintering, juveniles from the reintroduced population did not associate with older conspecifics in 12 out of 25 observed wintering events, suggesting that the social transmission of winter migration behaviours might be less effective in the reintroduced population. Although social learning is generally believed to increase flexibility in migratory strategies, a strong vertical transmission of behaviour might enforce adherence to established traditions and reduce the uptake of novel behaviours such as shortstopping. We suggest that, besides habitat availability, social factors may also play a role in explaining the absence of shortstopping behaviour in some migratory bird populations.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2013

Population-level effects of egg predation on a native planktivore in a large freshwater lake

Using a 37-year recruitment time series, we uncovered a field pattern revealing a strong, inverse relationship between bloater Coregonus hoyi recruitment success and slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus biomass in Lake Michigan (United States), one of the largest freshwater lakes of the world. Given that slimy sculpins (and deepwater sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii) are known egg predators that spatiotemporally overlap with incubating bloater eggs, we used recently published data on sculpin diets and daily ration to model annual bloater egg consumption by sculpins for the 1973–2010 year-classes. Although several strong year-classes were produced in the late 1980s when the proportion of eggs consumed by slimy sculpins was extremely low (i.e., <0.001) and several weak year-classes were produced when the proportion of bloater eggs consumed was at its highest (i.e., >0.10–1.0), egg predation failed to explain why recruitment was weak for the 1995–2005 year-classes when the proportion consumed was also low (i.e., <0.02). We concluded that egg predation by slimy and deepwater sculpins could have limited bloater recruitment in some years, but that some undetermined factor was more important in many other years. Given that slimy sculpin densities are influenced by piscivorous lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, the restoration of which in Lake Michigan has lagged behind those in lakes Superior and Huron, our study highlights the importance of an ecosystem perspective when considering population dynamics of fishes.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2021

Nuclear eDNA estimates population allele frequencies and abundance in experimental mesocosms

Advances in environmental DNA (eDNA) methodologies have led to improvements in the ability to detect species and communities in aquatic environments, yet the majority of studies emphasize biological diversity at the species level by targeting variable sites within the mitochondrial genome. Here, we demonstrate that eDNA approaches also have the capacity to detect intraspecific diversity in the nuclear genome, allowing for assessments of population-level genetic diversity and estimates of the number of genetic contributors in a sample. Using a panel of microsatellite loci, we evaluated intraspecific genetic diversity in the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) using eDNA samples from experimental mesocosms. First, we tested the similarity between eDNA and individual tissue-based estimates of allele frequencies. Subsequently, we used a likelihood-based DNA mixture framework to estimate the number of unique genetic contributors in mesocosm eDNA samples and in simulated mixtures of alleles. Allele frequencies from eDNA accurately reflected allele frequencies from genotyped round goby tissue samples, indicating nuclear markers can be reliably amplified from water samples under controlled conditions. DNA mixture analyses were able to estimate the number of genetic contributors from eDNA samples and simulated mixtures of DNA from up to 58 individuals, with the degree of positive or negative bias dependent on the filtering scheme of low-frequency alleles. This study is the first to document the application of eDNA and multiple amplicon-based methods to obtain intraspecific nuclear genetic information and estimate the absolute abundance of a species in mesocosms. With proper validation, this approach has the potential to advance non-invasive survey methods to characterize populations and broadens the application of eDNA methodologies to inform population-level management objectives.

New York↗

USGS2007

Effects of management and climate on elk brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Every winter, government agencies feed ∼6000 metric tons (6 × 10 6 kg) of hay to elk in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) to limit transmission of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis, from elk to cattle. Supplemental feeding, however, is likely to increase the transmission of brucellosis in elk, and may be affected by climatic factors, such as snowpack. We assessed these possibilities using snowpack and feeding data from 1952 to 2006 and disease testing data from 1993 to 2006. Brucellosis seroprevalence was strongly correlated with the timing of the feeding season. Longer feeding seasons were associated with higher seroprevalence, but elk population size and density had only minor effects. In other words, the duration of host aggregation and whether it coincided with peak transmission periods was more important than just the host population size. Accurate modeling of disease transmission depends upon incorporating information on how host contact rates fluctuate over time relative to peak transmission periods. We also found that supplemental feeding seasons lasted longer during years with deeper snowpack. Therefore, milder winters and/or management strategies that reduce the length of the feeding season may reduce the seroprevalence of brucellosis in the elk populations of the southern GYE.

Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2015

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays ( Aphelocoma insularis ), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Ecology↗

USGS1994

Habitat use by an endangered riverine fish and implications for species protection

We investigated habitat specificity of the amber darter (Percina antesella Williams & Etnier 1977), an imperiled fish from restricted portions of 2 rivers in the southeastern United States. Foraging amber darters occupied a narrow range of riffle habitat, consistently avoiding areas < 20 cm deep and with velocity < 10 cm. s-1 near the substrate, occupying areas with cobble or gravel substrate and average water-column velocity of 30 to 70 cm. s-1. During low to moderate flows, approximately 20% or more of the study areas contained suitable habitat for the species. Amber darters appeared rare, and the numbers of individuals were uncorrelated with the concurrent availability of suitable habitat. Protecting the amber darter may require more than maintaining adequate depths and velocities over gravel-cobble substrates. Until we understand the potential importance of migration and dispersal for maintaining small populations, suitable habitat should be maintained over the longest contiguous stream segments possible.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

USGS2022

Occurrence of a reproducing wild population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in the Manatee River drainage, Florida

We report on the discovery of a wild, reproducing population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in west-central Florida (USA), and first documented occurrence of snakeheads in the Gulf Coast region. Channa aurolineata is a large, predatory fish of the bullseye snakehead “Marulius group” species complex from Asia. Adult and juvenile specimens were captured in June 2020 in a 1.8-hectare pond that connects during high water to a small stream within the Manatee River-Tampa Bay Basin. The pond site is 250-km from the only other wild C. aurolineata population in the USA (present in southeast Florida since ca. 2000) and is considered a separate introduction and not the result of natural dispersal. Morphological and molecular comparisons revealed high overlap between the two Florida populations, evidence humans may have transported fish between sites. To verify identification, we compared Florida samples to C. aurolineata from Thailand and found mtDNA-COI barcode sequences to be identical or to differ by only a single base pair. Life body coloration of Florida samples matched their Asian counterparts, but Florida specimens averaged fewer dorsal fin rays (53.6 vs. 56.0), anal fin rays (34.2 vs 36.1), lateral line scales (65.3 vs. 67.4), and vertebrae (62.1 vs. 64.3), differences implying possible founder effect or sampling bias. Existence of this invasive predator is a concern because of the risk of spread and negative ecological effects, including an observation of terrestrial hunting behavior. In 2020–2021, several hundred C. aurolineata were removed from the pond by nets and electrofishing, and surveys suggested the population had not spread to nearby waters. In May 2021 the pond was treated with rotenone and 48 more specimens were recovered. No additional snakeheads have been sighted since the piscicide operation, although verification of eradication will require monitoring of the watershed.

Florida↗

USGS2001

Conservation endocrinology: A noninvasive tool to understand relationships between carnivore colonization and ecological carrying capacity

Reproductive technology, especially the diagnosis of pregnancy by radioimmunoassay of fecal steroid metabolites, is an important component of captive propagation, but its role in our understanding of ecological interactions and in situ biological restoration has been more limited. Where large herbivores have been 'released' from predation by the extirpation of carnivores, controversy often exists about possible detrimental effects at the ecosystem level A related concern is that the reestablishment of large carnivores may decrease the availability of prey populations for human subsistence. We suggest that pregnancy assays can be a valuable tool to help distinguish between the roles of predation versus food-imposed limitations on population size and their effects on juvenile recruitment in wild species. We explored this issue through analyses of fecal progestagen concentration (FPC) levels to document pregnancy in moose (Alces alces) in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a site where wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are recolonizing former habitats after an absence of more than 60 years. Pregnancy was clearly discernible (mean FPC for pregnant and nonpregnant females, respectively: 10.60 vs. 2.57 ??g/g; p < 0.0001). Among the potential confounding variables that need to be considered if FPC is applied to ecological and demographic questions are whether baseline values are affected by handling, whether neonate survival has been assessed, and whether sampling efforts are directed at both pregnant and nonpregnant animals. With these issues accounted for, the local moose population experienced juvenile survival rates among the highest in North America. Pregnancy rates, however, dropped from 90% in 1966 to about 75% today, rendering them in the lowest fifteenth percentile among moose populations in North America. Our findings suggest that a relatively low frequency of juvenile moose is not the likely result of predation, and they illustrate how endocrinology can be applied to issues involving reproductive events within an ecological context. They also affirm that noninvasive and generally inexpensive endocrinological procedures will be applicable to understanding interactions between recolonizing predators and prey, an issue that will continue to arise because of global restoration efforts, and to the study of rare ungulates in remote systems where data on reproductive events are difficult to obtain.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Long-term monitoring in transition: Resolving spatial mismatch and integrating multistate occupancy data

The success of long-term wildlife monitoring programs can be influenced by many factors and study designs often represent compromises between spatial scales and costs. Adaptive monitoring programs can iteratively manage this tension by adopting new cost-efficient technologies, which can provide projects the opportunity to reallocate costs to address new hypotheses, adapt to changing ecological conditions, or adjust sampling scale or resolution. If there is interest in longer time series of monitoring data, methodological transitions may necessitate integrated models to link newer data with historical data. However, data integration can be difficult if spatial or temporal scales are mismatched. Here, we develop an integrated multistate site-occupancy model and resolve sample unit spatial mismatch to link datasets from two northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitoring schemes that broadly overlapped during a methodological transition. The first dataset was obtained from a decades-long spotted owl monitoring program using call-playback and mark-resight surveys on historical territories of varying size and shape. This monitoring program has recently transitioned to passive acoustic monitoring of randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons over larger spatial extents. Both monitoring datasets overlapped with areas in which barred owl ( Strix varia ), an invasive competitor that has played an important role in northern spotted owl declines, were being removed experimentally. Reconciling spatial mismatch substantially increased the representation of the call-playback dataset and integrating the two datasets increased precision of spotted owl use and paired occupancy estimates relative to single dataset estimates. Estimates of spotted owl pair occupancy across the study area were lower than previous territory-based estimates based on call-playback surveys. Our integrated model further showed that a concurrent barred owl removal experiment increased landscape use and site occupancy by pairs of spotted owls. Our empirical application of an integrated modelling approach demonstrates a useful analytical framework for long-term monitoring efforts undergoing methodological transitions (e.g. mark-recapture to non-invasive population monitoring). This framework allows monitoring programs to maintain continuity of monitoring objectives across methodological transitions, rigorously incorporate previous findings, and adaptively respond to changing ecological conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Biome-scale spatial patterns of avian abundance reveal proactive conservation opportunities in North American grasslands

North American grassland birds have experienced steeper population declines than any other avian guild, yet conservation efforts remain largely reactive and fragmented. We used nearly four decades of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to identify biome-scale spatial patterns (clustering) of grassland bird abundance for the Great Plains. Our results reveal an ecological core in the north-central Plains where community-level abundance is either increasing by >100% or remains high and stable, providing a strategic roadmap for a “Defend the Core” conservation approach. This approach flips the script from reactive triage centered on isolated population fragments to a proactive strategy of maintaining large-scale ecosystem integrity. Conversely, we found that population losses are more spatially clustered than wins, reflecting the relentless, one-way movement of woody encroachment and agricultural conversion. This asymmetry supports prioritizing intact landscapes, as current restoration rates are often outpaced by the scale of habitat loss. Notably, we found that community-level spatial clustering is a more robust indicator of biome condition than trends of individual flagship species, suggesting that managing for ecosystem integrity provides a more effective multi-species umbrella. Given our results, there is an opportunity for operationalizing a Great Plains Conservation Design that is ecosystem-centric and rooted in the sustainability of the private-land cattle production that maintains these open spaces. By leveraging avian abundance as a biological sensor, managers and producers can deploy a shared vision that matches the spatial scale of the threats, moving from reactive triage to proactive defense of core working grasslands in North America.

Great Plains biome↗