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USGS2022

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual Report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2020 through December 2020

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an outdated adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures reducing performance of juvenile Steelhead Trout. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (https://www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/Index). Specifically, this work addresses the substrategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2020, we PIT-tagged 1,415 Steelhead parr (age-0 and age-1) in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Recaptures and detections of PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr happened through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trap operations, and instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection infrastructure. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data to population assessments, and life-cycle research and modeling. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 92 percent during eight of the past nine years and have exceeded 90% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River the past three years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. The dam had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations in Trout Creek due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues. Hemlock Dam was laddered for adult passage, but not to modern standards, which likely resulted in avoidance by some adult Steelhead Trout. We continue to improve our PTISs in the Wind River subbasin. The improvements in siting and addition of grid power to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU, rkm 27.6) during 2016 and 2017, and the addition of the Mine Reach site (site code MIN, rkm 36.0) have much improved PIT-tagged fish monitoring in the upper Wind River watershed. The paired PTIS design in the upper Wind River watershed (sites WRU and MIN), matches that in the Trout Creek watershed (sites TRC and TC4) and will allow comparisons of Steelhead Trout population metrics between the two watersheds as response to Hemlock Dam removal continues and future restoration efforts occur in Trout Creek. We installed two new PTISs during 2020. Both were installed downstream of our primary interrogation sites on Trout Creek and in the mainstem Wind River. We hope the two new sites will provide interrogations information that will allow us to better estimate detection efficiencies of downstream moving juvenile Steelhead Trout at the primary interrogation sites. The additional interrogations will be particularly important for those fish tagged with 9-mm PIT tags as less information from downstream locations is available from them. These sites and other status and trend data will allow evaluation of further planned restoration within the watershed, particularly that proposed for the headwaters of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. We have estimated that from 15 to 51% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age 1 for additional rearing during both spring and fall. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall. These findings raise questions about where parr most successfully rear and whether migrations are density or habitat quality driven. Broader monitoring programs would give a more comprehensive understanding of juvenile Steelhead Trout production and rearing and productivity contribution. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PITtagged parr during summer were similar across the subbasin but lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth for parr tagged at age-0 is similar across the subbasin. Non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling has allowed us to index their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2020. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2020 declined, though both metrics increased in 2018. Evaluation and planning of restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin will inform research and tracking of many populations and help inform habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Increasingly detailed viable salmonid population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks like those in the Wind River can provide data to inform fisheries policy and management and understand life-history strategies and limiting factors. Such efforts also provide assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek, and the proposed Stage-0 restoration effort for upper Trout Creek, which would be a large-scale effort to reset sections of stream within their floodplain, restoring connectivity and interaction with surrounding landscape.

Washington↗

USGS2024

U.S.-Mexico Borderland & vegetation community map

People on both sides of the United States-Mexico border need a high-resolution, binational vegetation community map that spans the entire United States-Mexico borderlands. Traditionally, mapping efforts in this region were impeded by complex logistics related to the international border, differing national needs and plans, and resource allocations and priorities. To address this need, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center partnered with the Sonoran Joint Venture, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program, data engineers from the Department of Biosystems Engineering at the University of Arizona, and collaborators from the Wildlands Network, the Borderlands Program to produce the first prototype land cover map within the overlapping Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, and the North American Bird Conservation Initiative’s Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR33) using Landsat satellite data . BCR33 is an area of high biodiversity, providing habitat for bird species of concern and other wildlife. The land cover map supports FWS recovery plan efforts related to conservation planning activities for many species, including Yellow-billed Cuckoo ( Coccyzus americanus ), Cactus Ferruginous Pygmy-Owl ( Glaucidium brasilianum cactorum ), Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ), Yuma Ridgway’s Rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ), Bendire’s thrasher ( Toxostoma bendirei ), LeConte’s thrasher ( Toxostoma lecontei ), Masked Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ), jaguar ( Panthera onca ), and endangered plants such as Bartram’s stonecrop ( Graptopetalum bartramii ) and the Pima pineapple cactus ( Coryphantha robustispina ssp. robustispina ). In 2024, a Phase-II map for the full BCR33 region was completed, increasing the understanding of the binational nature of natural communities. The published map and associated paper can be found here .

Borderland↗

USGS2026

Strategic approach for bird restoration evaluation - FY 2025 annual report

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (hereafter “ spill ”) resulted in an estimated loss of 56,141–102,399 birds across 93 species along the U.S. Gulf of America coast. Injured species included those that nest locally along the northern Gulf of America coast as well as species that nest hundreds or thousands of kilometers outside of the region. The breadth of injury and the expansive geographic distribution of birds affected by the spill necessitated implementation of numerous and diverse projects designed to restore the injury of all affected bird species. As of September 2025, the Trustees, who are authorized to act on behalf of the public to restore injuries caused by the spill , have approved 39 projects, amounting to >60% of the total funds specifically allocated for bird restoration (i.e., Bird Restoration Type funding). Strategic allocation of remaining Bird Restoration Type funding is necessary to ensure that restoration of all injured bird species is achieved. An essential component of planning for future restoration is understanding the progress made from restoration actions conducted to date. The purpose of this project is to develop a plan that assesses the current restoration progress for each of the 93 injured species based on available data. The restoration assessment plan will be derived from a data gap analysis that identifies species for which data may be insufficient to assess restoration progress. This project will also allow Trustees to review and update the indicators of restoration success developed for injured bird species (e.g., population counts, reproduction metrics) that are used to evaluate restoration progress.

Annual Report↗

USGS1981

Design of exploration and minerals-data-collection programs in developing areas

This paper considers the practical problem of applying economic analysis to designing minerals exploration and data collection strategies for developing countries. Formal decision rules for the design of government exploration and minerals-data-collection programs are derived by using a minerals-industry planning model that has been extended to include an exploration function. Rules derived are applicable to centrally planned minerals industries as well as market-oriented minerals sectors. They pertain to the spatial allocation of exploration effort and to the allocation of activities between government and private concerns for market-oriented economies. Programs characterized by uniform expenditures, uniform information coverage across regions, or uniform-density grid drilling progrmas are shown to be inferior to the strategy derived. Moreover, for market-oriented economies, the economically optimal mix in exploration activities between private and government data collection would require that only private firms assess local sites and that government agencies carry out regional surveys.

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences↗

USGS2012

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management↗

USGS2014

Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

Journal of Conservation Planning↗

USGS1999

Environmental enrichment of brown capuchins (Cebus apella): Behavioral and plasma and fecal cortisol measures of effectiveness

No consensus exists about the quantity and variety of environmental enrichment needed to achieve an acceptable level of psychological well-being among singly housed primates. Behavioral and plasma and fecal cortisol measures were used to evaluate the effectiveness of four levels of toy and foraging enrichment provided to eight wild-caught, singly housed adult male brown capuchins (Cebus apella). The 16-week-long study comprised six conditions and began with a 4-week-long preexperimental and ended with a 4-week-long postexperimental period during which the subjects were maintained at baseline enrichment levels. During the intervening 8 weeks, the subjects were randomly assigned to a sequence of four 2-week-long experimental conditions: control (baseline conditions), toy (the addition of two plastic toys to each cage), box (access to a foraging box with food treats hidden within crushed alfalfa), and box and toy (the addition of two plastic toys and access to a foraging box). Behavioral responses to changes in enrichment were rapid and extensive. Within-subject repeated-measure ANOVAs with planned post hoc contrasts identified highly significant reductions in abnormal and undesirable behaviors (and increases in normal behaviors) as the level of enrichment increased from control to toy to box to box and toy. No significant behavioral differences were found between the control and pre- and postexperimental conditions. Plasma and fecal cortisol measures revealed a different response to changing enrichment levels. Repeated-measure ANOVA models found significant changes in both these measures across the six conditions. The planned post hoc analyses, however, while finding dramatic increases in cortisol titers in both the pre- and postexperimental conditions relative to the control condition, did not distinguish cortisol responses among the four enrichment levels. Linear regressions among weekly group means in behavioral and cortisol measures (n = 16) found that plasma cortisol was significantly predicted by the proportions of both normal and abnormal behaviors; as the proportion of normal behaviors increased, the plasma cortisol measures decreased. Plasma cortisol weekly group means were also significantly and positively predicted by fecal cortisol weekly group means, but no behavioral measure significantly predicted fecal cortisol weekly group means. In sum, these findings argue strongly that access to a variety of toy and foraging enrichment positively affects behavioral and physiological responses to stress and enhances psychological well-being in singly housed brown capuchins.

American Journal of Primatology↗

USGS2016

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the use of marine protected areas by endangered species: A habitat selection approach

1. Optimizing the design of marine protected area (MPA) networks for the conservation of migratory marine species and their habitats involves a suite of important considerations, such as appropriate scale requirements and the distribution of anthropogenic impacts. Often, a fundamental component of the conservation planning process is delineating areas of high use or high biodiversity within a region of interest. 2. However, basing conservation strategies off merely the number of individuals in an ecosystem is outdated and potentially subject to arbitrary thresholds. To be effective at protecting marine megafauna, MPAs would ideally encompass habitats used by focal species. Through satellite-tracking studies, evidence of whether species actually use protected areas is emerging. 3. Here, we present a multispecies perspective on habitat selection within existing MPAs throughout the Floridian ecoregion, which encompasses coastal Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Using an 11-year satellite-tracking dataset on 235 marine turtles, we used integrated step selection analysis to quantify the effects of sea turtle behavioural state (identified by a switching state-space model), protected area status, chlorophyll and bathymetry on habitat selection. 4. Our results show that sea turtles do select for existing protected areas, specifically multi-use zones, while controlling for the effects of depth and primary productivity. However, our analysis revealed that turtles showed no selection for the no-take zones within MPAs, during either transiting or foraging. 5. These findings contribute to the existing literature base of MPA use for highly mobile, imperilled species and could inform management of existing MPAs or changes to zoning, specifically multi-use to no-take. Our use of a robust spatial modelling framework to evaluate habitat selection relative to MPAs could be incorporated into conservation planning to build MPA networks designed to accommodate migratory species.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: A modeling approach for river ecosystems

Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side-channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side-channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species, dynamic food web models can improve restoration planning by fostering a deeper understanding of system connectedness and dynamics.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Landscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest

Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to minimize fire risk and enhance watershed function. The implications of these restoration projects for drought vulnerability are not well understood. Here, we examined how planned restoration treatments in the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, the largest forest restoration project in the United States, would alter landscape‐scale patterns of forest growth and drought vulnerability throughout the 21 st century. Using drought‐growth relationships developed within the landscape, we considered a suite of climate and treatment scenarios and estimated average forest growth and the proportion of years with extremely low growth as a measure of vulnerability to long‐term decline. Climatic shifts projected for this landscape include higher temperatures and shifting seasonal precipitation that promotes lower soil moisture availability in the early growing season and greater hot‐dry stress, conditions negatively associated with tree growth. However, drought severity and the magnitude of future growth declines was moderated by the thinning treatments. Compared to historical conditions, proportional growth in mid‐century declines by ~40% if thinning ceases or continues at the status quo pace. By comparison, proportional growth declines by only 20% if the Four Forest Restoration Initiative treatments are fully implemented, and < 10% if stands are thinned even more intensively than currently planned. Furthermore, restoration treatments resulted in dramatically fewer years with extremely low growth in the future, a recognized precursor to forest decline and eventual tree mortality. Benefits from density reduction for mitigating drought‐induced growth declines are more apparent in mid‐century and under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 at the end of the century. Future climate is inherently uncertain, and our results only reflect the climate projections from the representative suite of models examined. Nevertheless, these results indicate that forest restoration projects designed for other objectives also have substantial benefits for minimizing future drought vulnerability in dry forests and provide additional incentive to accelerate the pace of restoration.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2026

Quantifying avian resilience to habitat change to support conservation decision-making

Habitat loss and degradation are two of the main drivers of contemporary avian population declines. Wildlife managers are increasingly advocating for tools that provide decision support to set priorities for restoration or conservation efficiently. We demonstrate how to derive two species-specific management and resilience metrics: the greatest management impact point (GMIP) and the ecological resilience threshold (RT). The GMIP indicates the amount of environmental change in a landscape where habitat improvements are expected to have the greatest impact on species’ occurrence. The RT represents the amount of environmental change in a landscape that a species can tolerate before the steepest change in occupancy is expected to begin. We estimate species-specific metrics using the amount of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation as an index of environmental change, and demonstrate how multispecies patterns may suggest potential management strategies. We estimated occupancy models using 5 years of multispecies avian detection data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program in the State of Utah, USA (hereafter, Utah). Based on the estimated relationship between species’ occupancy and amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation, we derive RT and GMIP scores for 61 species breeding in Utah. We found wide interspecific variation in resilience to amounts of exotic vegetation, with species generally clustering at extreme values. Our results demonstrate that birds in Utah appear more resilient to amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation at coarser spatial resolution, showing greater variance and lower average RTs at finer spatial resolution. Species that are not fully resilient to the range of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation observed in this study are expected to respond most strongly, on average, to management actions in landscapes with high levels of exotic vegetation; however, early detection and rapid response is likely the most effective strategy. Quantified across many species, these metrics can be used to identify and prioritize landscapes where current environmental conditions could be maintained to avoid the greatest species’ declines, or which maximize expected biodiversity returns on investment in environmental restoration. Managers can consider either focal species’ resilience for tailored conservation planning or summarize species resilience to create efficient management plans that maximize outcomes for multiple species.

Utah↗

USGS2013

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage-grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range, U.S.A.

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage-grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage-grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage-grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km 2 region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D 2 model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage-grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D 2 (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage-grouse required sagebrush-dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage-grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land-use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage-grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage-grouse populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Establishing conservation units to promote recovery of two threatened freshwater mussel species (Bivalvia: Unionida: Potamilus)

Population genomics has significantly increased our ability to make inferences about microevolutionary processes and demographic histories, which have the potential to improve protection and recovery of imperiled species. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) represent one of the most imperiled groups of organisms globally. Despite systemic decline of mussel abundance and diversity, studies evaluating spatiotemporal changes in distribution, demographic histories, and ecological factors that threaten long-term persistence of imperiled species remain lacking. In this study, we use genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) and mitochondrial sequence data (mtDNA) to define conservation units (CUs) for two highly imperiled freshwater mussel species, Potamilus amphichaenus and Potamilus streckersoni . We then synthesize our molecular findings with details from field collections spanning from 1901 to 2019 to further elucidate distributional trends, contemporary status, and other factors that may be contributing to population declines for our focal species. We collected GBS and mtDNA data for individuals of P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni from freshwater mussel collections in the Brazos, Neches, Sabine, and Trinity drainages ranging from 2012 to 2019. Molecular analyses resolved disputing number of genetic clusters within P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni ; however, we find defensible support for four CUs, each corresponding to an independent river basin. Evaluations of historical and recent occurrence data illuminated a generally increasing trend of occurrence in each of the four CUs, which were correlated with recent increases in sampling effort. Taken together, these findings suggest that P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni are likely rare throughout their respective ranges. Because of this, the establishment of CUs will facilitate evidence-based recovery planning and ensure potential captive propagation and translocation efforts are beneficial. Our synthesis represents a case study for conservation genomic assessments in freshwater mussels and provides a model for future studies aimed at recovery planning for these highly imperiled organisms.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2017

Predicting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on soil organic carbon sequestration

Large Mississippi River (MR) diversions (peak water flow >1416 m 3 /s and sediment loads >165 kg/s) have been proposed as part of a suite of coastal restoration projects and are expected to rehabilitate and rebuild wetlands to alleviate the significant historic wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. These coastal wetlands are undergoing increasing eustatic sea‐level rise, land subsidence, climate change, and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the effect of MR diversions on wetland soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in receiving basins remains unknown. The rate of SOC sequestration or carbon burial in wetlands is one of the variables used to assess the role of wetland soils in carbon cycling and also to construct wetland carbon budgets. In this study, we examined the effects of MR water and sediment diversions on landscape‐scale SOC sequestration rates that were estimated from vertical accretion for the next 50 yr (2010–2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Our analyses were based on model simulations taken from the Wetland Morphology model developed for Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan. The master plan modeled a “future‐without‐action” scenario as well as eight individual MR diversion projects in two of the hydrologic basins (Barataria and Breton Sound). We examined the effects that discharge rates (peak flow) and locations of these individual diversion projects had on SOC sequestration rates. Modeling results indicate that large river diversions are capable of improving basin‐wide SOC sequestration capacity (162–222 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) by up to 14% (30 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) in Louisiana deltaic wetlands compared to the future‐without‐action scenario, especially under the less optimistic scenario. When large river diversions are placed in the upper receiving basin, SOC sequestration rates are 3.7–10.5% higher (6–24 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) than when these structures are placed in the lower receiving basin. Modeling results also indicate that both diversion discharge and location have large effects on SOC sequestration in low‐salinity (freshwater and intermediate marshes) as compared to high‐salinity marshes (brackish and saline marshes).

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗