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1,691 records · Page 83Linked to original sources
USGS2026

The role of groundwater in contributing to surface water salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Freshwater salinization impacts the availability of water for human use and ecosystem needs worldwide. It has been estimated that total dissolved solids (TDS) in the Colorado River Basin cause $350 million/year in damages and substantial resources are devoted to reducing TDS loading to streams. This study describes the development and application of coupled watershed models that enable TDS source tracking through the subsurface and across the landscape at a seasonal timestep for 35 years in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Results indicate that, on average, 75% of TDS loading to streams originates as baseflow, and 50% of loading is lagged in delivery by longer than one season. Snowmelt was identified as a dominant process controlling the transport of lagged TDS to streams. This approach informs when and where TDS mitigation efforts may be effective in a watershed that serves as a critical water supply for the southwestern United States.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Earthquake catalog for the Fairbanks region of central Alaska, 2014–2024, based on waveform cross-correlation

The Fairbanks region of central Alaska is part of a broad zone of intraplate crustal deformation, situated north of the Denali fault and north of the ongoing collision and flat‐slab subduction of the Yakutat oceanic plateau. Seismicity in the Fairbanks region occurs both in diffuse areas as well as in well‐defined lineaments, such as the left‐lateral Salcha fault, which hosted the 1937 M 8 7.3 earthquake. Starting with the regional seismicity catalog, we perform waveform cross‐correlation, network‐matched filtering, and relative relocation to obtain an enhanced seismicity catalog over the time period 2014–2024. Based on the relocated catalog, we interpret a set of 15 fault segments, including two conjugate faults and two new faults east of the previously documented fault system. Considering the combined seismicity in the Minto and Fairbanks regions, the median depth of seismicity decreases from east (6 km) to west (20 km). Our interpreted faults provide guidance for future tectonic modeling and assessment of seismic hazards in this region.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Effects of snowmobile use on snowpack chemistry in Yellowstone National Park, 1998

Snowmobile use in Yellowstone National Park has increased substantially in the past three decades. In areas of greatest snowmobile use, elevated levels of by-products of gasoline combustion such as ammonium and benzene have been detected in snowpack samples. Annual snowpacks and snow-covered roadways trap deposition from local and regional atmospheric emissions. Snowpack samples representing most of the winter precipitation were collected at about the time of maximum annual snow accumulation at a variety of locations in the park to observe effects of a range of snowmobile traffic levels. Concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds in snow samples from pairs of sites located directly in and off snow-packed roadways used by snowmobiles were compared to concentrations in samples collected at nearby off-road sites. Concentrations of ammonium were 2 to 5 times higher for the in-road snow compared to off-road snow for each pair of sites. Thus, concentrations decreased rapidly with distance from roadways. In addition, concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, benzene, and toluene in snow were positively correlated with snowmobile use.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Legacy of the fumigant 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) in California groundwater

The fumigant pesticide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) was widely used in California agriculture during the 1960s and 1970s before being banned in 1979. Despite this ban, DBCP continues to contaminate groundwater due to its persistence and mobility. This study evaluates the distribution, historical trends, and projected persistence of DBCP in California using data from over 13,000 public supply wells and additional domestic, irrigation, and observation wells (1980-2022). Since 2010, DBCP has been detected in 9% of public supply wells statewide, with higher frequencies in the San Joaquin Valley (21%) and upper Santa Ana River watershed (13%), where DBCP use was most prevalent. Approximately 70% of wells had decreasing concentration trends, whereas increases were more common in deeper wells, indicating downward vertical migration of the DBCP front. Groundwater age estimates show that recharge timing aligns with the 1960s–1970s loading period, enabling reconstruction of peak inputs and providing a basis for age based modeling. To estimate future persistence, we applied a one dimensional advection–dispersion model that simulates long term declines in peak concentrations based on groundwater age, historical loading, and a 38 year degradation half life. Model projections suggest that concentrations above the maximum contaminant level may persist in a declining number of wells until approximately 2080 (range: 2048–2109), with longer persistence in the San Joaquin Valley. The simplified modeling framework, based on age distributions typical of wells capturing peak concentrations, can provide practical regional scale assessment of non-point source contaminants where long-term monitoring exists. This study highlights how the legacy of DBCP contamination will likely affect California's groundwater resources throughout the 21st century.

California↗
USGS2024

Trimming the UCERF3-TD logic tree: Model order reduction for an earthquake rupture forecast considering loss exceedance

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3-Time Dependent depicts California’s seismic faults and their activity. Its logic tree has 5760 leaves. Considering 30 more model combinations related to ground motion produces 172,800 distinct models representing so-called epistemic uncertainties. To calculate risk to a portfolio of buildings, one also considers millions of earthquakes and spatially correlated ground-motion variability. We offer a tree-trimming technique that retains the probability distribution of portfolio loss and identifies the leading sources of uncertainty for further study. We applied it to a California statewide building portfolio and various levels of nonexceedance probability between one in 100 and one in 2500. We trimmed the logic tree from 172,800 leaves to as few as 15. The result: a supercomputer that would otherwise run 24 h to estimate the distribution of one-in-250-year loss can calculate it in moments with the reduced-order model. Others can use the reduced-order model to calculate risk to different California portfolios, and scientists can prioritize study to reduce the remaining epistemic uncertainty.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2026

Low-frequency earthquakes track the motion of a captured slab fragment

Accurate tectonic models are essential for assessing seismic hazard and fault interactions. However, the plate configuration at the complex Mendocino triple junction, where the San Andreas Fault and the Cascadia subduction zone meet, remains uncertain. We analyzed fault slip associated with a recently identified zone of tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near the southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab. Based on tidal sensitivity and P-wave first motions, we show that the LFEs are generated by dipping, strike-slip motion. This suggests that a former Farallon slab fragment, now captured by the Pacific plate, is translating northward beneath westernmost North America. This geometry effectively extends the slab interface fault, challenging prevailing interpretations of slab window formation and creating a potential unaccounted earthquake hazard in this region.

Science↗
USGS2025

Statewide cumulative human health risk assessment of inorganics-contaminated groundwater wells, Montana, USA

Across the United States, rural residents rely on unregulated and generally unmonitored private wells for drinking water, which may pose serious health risks due to unrecognized contaminants. We assessed the nature, degree, and spatial distribution of cumulative health risks from inorganic contaminants in groundwater. Our analysis included nearly 84,000 data points from 6500+ wells, across 51 of Montana's 98 watersheds, using a public groundwater database. We compared a drinking water screening level cumulative risk assessment (CRA) for inorganics based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective health thresholds (Maximum Contaminant Level Goals, Health Advisories [MCLG-HAs]) to a CRA based on EPA public supply enforceable Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs). Based on median concentrations of 19 inorganics (antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, boron, cadmium, chromium, copper, fluoride, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, nitrate, lead, selenium, strontium, thallium, uranium, zinc), 75% of watersheds had MCLG-HA-based cumulative risk values > 1.0; arsenic and uranium contributed the most risk, followed by strontium, fluoride, manganese and boron. Hence, this screening level (Tier I) CRA indicated widespread potential for unrecognized human health risk to private well users from inorganic contaminants considering both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Sensitivity analysis showed that benchmarks applied (MCLG-HAs versus MCLs) exerted the largest control on results. Our findings identify priority regions for Tier 2 risk assessments to elucidate local sources and distributions of geogenic versus anthropomorphic contaminants. Our study is the first statewide assessment of cumulative health risk from groundwater that we are aware of, and results support increased statewide drinking water education and testing to reduce human health risks from contaminated private well water.

Montana↗
USGS1976

Effect of deicing chemicals on the hydrologic environment in Massachusetts; evaluation of surface-water data collection

The objective of this study is to develop predictive relationships that can be used to describe the impact of highway deicing salts on the hydrologic environment. A method, presented in an earlier report, for estimating yearly mean chloride concentrations from estimated or actual runoff and salt-application data was applied to the period 1971 through1974 and the results compared with yearly mean chloride concentrations computed from records of specific conductance. Estimates were found to be from minus 63 percent to plus 56 percent in error when the error was expressed as the difference between estimated and computed values as a percentage of the computed values. Chloride concentrations used in this study are computed from specific conductance/chloride concentration relationships and records of specific conductance. Preliminary results from graphic analyses and least-squares regression analysis show that relationships between measured values of specific conductance and chloride concentration have correlation coefficients ranging from 0.30 to 0.97. Analysis of streamflow for all major dissolved constituents is recommended with the purpose of attempting to describe the variations in the specific conductance/chloride concentration relationships.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2026

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Repeated coral bleaching events have eroded reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Coral bleaching is now the primary driver of coral-reef degradation globally, threatening the persistence of coral-reef functions and the invaluable ecosystem services they support. The Florida Keys have been impacted by four severe, regional-scale coral-bleaching events, which occurred in 1997–1998, 2005, 2014–2015, and 2023. Our aim in this study was to quantify the effects of those thermal-stress events on the persistence of coral-reef structures. We leveraged long-term coral-reef monitoring data to quantify the impacts of coral bleaching on coral cover, carbonate production, and reef-accretion potential throughout the Florida Keys from 1996–2024. Our study indicates that coral bleaching drove significant declines of reef-building corals, which successively diminished regional-scale reef-accretion potential (from 1.65 ± 0.33 mm y -1 in 1996) and culminated with a regional-scale transition to net reef erosion (-0.12 ± 0.08 mm y -1 ) following the 2023 event. Coral bleaching was the primary driver of declining reef-building capacity, with the cumulative impacts of the four coral-bleaching events accounting for >75% of total declines since 1996. The 1997–1998 event alone drove ~50% of overall declines, largely due to losses of the shallow-water ecosystem engineer, Acropora palmata . More moderate impacts of thermal stress on regional reef-accretion potential in 2005 (6%) and 2014–2015 (9%) could lend some support to the hypothesis that the remaining corals were more thermally tolerant; however, the unprecedented thermal stress event in 2023 caused widespread coral-bleaching and bleaching-related mortality, and caused an additional 12% of the total decline in reef-accretion potential. Stony-coral tissue loss disease accounted for an additional 6% of the decline, with the remaining 19% unexplained. Coral bleaching has already dramatically reshaped the structure and function of coral reefs in the Florida Keys over the last three decades. With the high likelihood that thermal stress will accelerate moving forward, the persistence of Florida’s essential coral-reef functions and services is uncertain.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Igneous differentiation in arcs

This chapter assesses crystallization-differentiation of convergent-margin magmas both from the standpoints of natural rock suites and from laboratory phase-equilibrium experiments. Crystallization-differentiation of dry subalkaline and alkaline basalts are summarized at the beginning for reference and context. Experiments crystallizing arc basalts through andesites at middle to upper crustal pressures (100–400 MPa), saturated either with H 2 O or mixed H 2 O-CO 2 , produce liquid lines of descent similar to arc igneous suites, with higher f O 2 s giving results closer to calc-alkaline magma series. Early enrichment of melts in SiO 2 with little or no enrichment in FeO* (total Fe as FeO) comes about by the combined effects of H 2 O suppressing crystallization of plagioclase relative to olivine, shifting plagioclase to more calcic – therefore lower SiO 2 – compositions, and suppressing silicate minerals to greater extents than Fe-rich spinel. Also contributing to SiO 2 enrichment is crystallization near the liquidus of higher proportions of olivine relative to calcic clinopyroxene, compared with MORB, but it is unclear if this is brought about by H 2 O or elevated pressure. Exhumed arc terranes, however, generally fail to expose evidence for primitive liquids having reached and differentiated at middle to upper crustal depths, at least in any abundance. Instead, most differentiation in arcs appears to take place in the lower crust or near the crust-mantle transition, and although hydrous experiments at such pressures produce liquids broadly similar to arc suites in their SiO 2 enrichment, the experimental liquids differ in becoming peraluminous at early stages of differentiation while melts have basaltic, basaltic andesitic, or andesitic SiO 2 concentrations. Crystallization of abundant calcic clinopyroxene close to the liquidus causes the high-pressure experimental liquids to become peraluminous with only small increases in SiO 2 concentration. In contrast, natural arc volcanic and plutonic suites become gradually less metaluminous with increasing SiO 2 , crossing to peraluminous at dacitic to rhyolitic SiO 2 concentrations. Hybridism, encompassing magma-mixing, assimilation of old crust, and incorporation of near-solidus melts from only shortly older deep, antecedent arc intrusions may accompany natural crystallization-differentiation, preventing melts from attaining peraluminous compositions at low-SiO 2 concentrations. If so, then nearly all arc suites are to substantial extents composites, rather than preserving simple, progressive liquid lines of descent. Some comments and assessments are also made on the participation of garnet in arc differentiation and on the production of arc batholiths.

Book chapter↗
USGS2026

New measurements indicate that natural geologic methane emissions from microseepage in the Michigan Basin are likely negligible

The magnitude of natural geologic methane (CH 4 ) emissions to the atmosphere (including emissions of fossil CH 4 from offshore and onshore gas and oil seeps, diffuse microseepage, mud volcanoes, volcanic vents, and geothermal areas) is highly uncertain. The largest component of geologic emissions is thought to be microseepage, which is the diffuse flux of CH 4 from soils across large areas of productive hydrocarbon basins. The accuracy of existing bottom-up estimates of microseepage is limited by low spatial coverage of published microseepage measurements. We present the first soil—atmosphere CH 4 flux measurements from Michigan Basin, USA. Results from 335 measurements taken during summer and winter seasons across a large portion of the basin suggest microseepage is nonexistent in the sampled region. Even areas with predictive features for microseepage (e.g., underlying mature, organically rich source rocks, proven gas accumulations, faults, and lineaments) yield null or negative fluxes, suggesting that CH 4 emissions from microseepage are negligible throughout our study region. A Monte Carlo method was used to place an upper limit on the regional-mean microseepage flux, in which synthetic patchy microseepage distributions were generated and tested against our observations to assess the impact of possible emission hot spots that were missed by our sampling strategy. Our analysis finds it is very unlikely that regional-mean emissions are as high as assumed in a previous global microseepage study. The observed lack of seepage may be explained by groundwater flow, active methanotrophy, glacial sediments, and bedded salt deposits, which could inhibit vertical gas migration and release to atmosphere.

Michigan↗
USGS2024

Estimating domestic self-supplied water use in Rhode Island, 2014–21

Water withdrawal from private groundwater wells is often unaccounted for in water planning studies, and water from private wells can be a source of exposure to environmental contaminants. The sizes of populations that depend on private wells for domestic water use and the amounts of water that are withdrawn from these wells are generally poorly represented in data collection efforts because of the challenges of locating, metering, or gathering withdrawal information from individual property owners. To address this problem, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, estimated the volume of water withdrawn from domestic self-supply wells and the populations who use them for the State of Rhode Island at a 30-meter pixel spatial resolution and one-month temporal resolution between July 2014 and June 2021. The number of people reliant on domestic self-supply wells has increased in Rhode Island over the study period; however, the statewide estimate of total water withdrawal has not statistically increased. Withdrawals from private wells are largest in the inland areas of the western part of the State, and the towns of Scituate and Charlestown have the highest estimated withdrawals. Statewide monthly withdrawals ranged from 3.987 million gallons per day in March 2018 to 7.767 million gallons per day in September 2016. The median per capita domestic water use rate was 46.0 gallons per capita per day.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2026

Cruise summary—Samoa Basin abyssal mapping—Box coring leg, Pago Pago, Territory of American Samoa to Pago Pago, American Samoa, April 11– May 1, 2026

Expedition Summary U.S. Geological Survey scientists led a box coring effort to the Samoa Basin to characterize minerals and the surrounding abyssal sediments and fauna. Thirty-eight box cores were deployed between April 13, 2026, and April 28, 2026. Thirty-six box cores recovered sufficient material to determine nodule density, and 35 recovered sufficient material for subcores to be collected. The purpose of this Data Report is to provide a summary of samples collected, initial results that were obtained shipboard, and briefly mention planned future analyses from this expedition.

Data Report↗
USGS2024

Separating signals in elevation data improves supervised machine learning predictions for hydrothermal favorability

A recent study identified topography (land surface elevation above sea level) as an important input dataset (feature) for predicting the location of hydrothermal systems in the Great Basin in Nevada. Yet, topography is generally a result of more than one geological process and may consequently contain multiple distinct signals. For example, the geologic evolution of the Great Basin has produced both crustal thickening (i.e., regional-scale trends in elevation) and thinning via Basin and Range extensional faulting (i.e., valley-scale topographic relief). We postulate that these geologic processes may affect the occurrence of hydrothermal systems differently. Therefore, we separate the regional trend from the valley-scale signal in the Great Basin, and then use them separately to evaluate the importance of each as predictors for hydrothermal favorability. Our prior work applying supervised machine learning (ML) using the data from the Nevada Machine Learning Project demonstrated that employing a training strategy that randomly selects negative training sites produces better performing models for predicting hydrothermal favorability than a training strategy that uses expert-selected negatives. The models created using both training strategies exhibited a west-east geographic trend in the predictions for the favorability of hydrothermal resources. These models generally predicted higher favorability in western Nevada and lower favorability in eastern Nevada. This west-east trend in predicted favorability correlates with elevation across the Great Basin, which trends higher from west to east. By separating the original elevation feature into distinct features for elevation trend (i.e., regional-scale topography) and detrended elevation (i.e., valley-scale or local relative topography), we find that models using the separated topographic signals consistently outperform competing models that use the original elevation feature. Although western Nevada still exhibits higher favorability than eastern Nevada, using separated signals for regional elevation and local structure reduces the west-east prediction trend in the region and emphasizes structures associated with hydrothermal upflow. This work emphasizes how carefully engineering features to represent geological conditions relevant to hydrothermal systems allows ML algorithms to detect important patterns for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability and leads to better model performance.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Lithium resource in the Smackover Formation brines of Southern Arkansas

Lithium-rich brine deposits occur throughout the United States, including in the Smackover Formation. The concentration of lithium in Smackover Formation brines was predicted across southern Arkansas by using a machine-learning model that incorporated lithium concentration data and geologic information. Between 5.1 and 19.0 million metric tons of lithium are calculated to be present in the brines of the Smackover Formation in southern Arkansas. The range in possible total lithium reflects the uncertainty in machine-learning predictions of lithium concentrations and the range of Smackover Formation porosity. This estimate quantifies the in-place lithium resource and does not consider the technological and economic feasibility of extracting the lithium from the brines.

Arkansas↗
USGS2025

Long‐period ground motions from dynamic rupture simulations of large earthquakes on the creeping Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek fault system

he Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults in the San Francisco Bay region of California have a high probability of producing a large earthquake in the next decades. Although these faults creep, the creep is insufficient to keep up with their relatively rapid slip rates on their deepest sections, so they have been storing tectonic strain since their last large earthquakes, with the Hayward’s and Rodgers Creek’s more than 150 yr ago. We do not know what the next large Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek earthquakes will look like or how strongly they will shake the San Francisco Bay region. Harris et al. (2021) used the 3D dynamic (spontaneous) rupture method to simulate large earthquakes on these creeping faults. In this article, we examine the resulting simulated long‐period ( T > 1 s) ground shaking from 0 to 50 km distance, for earthquakes nucleating on the Hayward fault and earthquakes nucleating on the Rodgers Creek fault. We compare these simulated long‐period ground motions with the Boore et al. (2014) well‐established empirically based ground‐motion model suitable for the slowest material velocity in our 3D velocity structure. We find that the simulated long‐period ground motions from the creeping‐fault earthquake scenarios produce a reasonable agreement with the empirical expectations if frictional cohesion is included only where it is appropriate.

California↗
USGS2025

Site-specific, extended ShakeMaps for earthquake engineering applications

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely produces ShakeMaps of shaking intensity across the globe. Due to practical constraints, the number of response spectral periods was limited to three standard periods (0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 sec). We have recently developed the tools that are necessary to expand this functionality to include 22 periods (matching the current U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model periods) as well as the orientation-independent components (e.g., “RotD50”). We refer to ShakeMap products that include these extensions as “extended ShakeMaps.” The added level of complexity motivated us to also develop a user-friendly tool called the “ShakeMap Sampling Tool” (SST) that gives all the estimated shaking metrics for a specific location (or list of locations). Additionally, we develop a web application where users can input locations of interest and view/download the SST results. We further familiarize users with the concept of “Composite ShakeMaps.” For earthquakes sequences such as a mainshock and larger foreshocks and aftershocks, this provides a map of the maximum value of each shaking metric, which is useful for overall loss estimates, the full extent of ground failure triggering potential, and a better portrayal of the repeated shaking levels at a given point for a series of earthquakes. Such a site-specific shaking history facilitates earthquake forensics at building or infrastructure sites for which damage may be of concern, as described in the Disproportionate Damage Earthquake trigger specified in the IEBC (2018, Section 405.2.2) and in developing ATC-145 guidelines (Guidelines for Post-Earthquake Assessment, Repair, and Retrofit of Buildings). The composite ShakeMap can be combined with the SST for a variety of earthquake-hazard applications, such as systematically inferring triggering shaking estimates at specific sites of geotechnical interest for landsliding, liquefaction, and lateral-spreading hazards.

Kahramanmaraş↗