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USGS2012

Ecosystem performance monitoring of rangelands by integrating modeling and remote sensing

Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance ( P <0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.

Oregon;Idaho↗

USGS1970

Waterfowl breeding habitat in agricultural and nonagricultural land in Manitoba

Waterfowl populations and habitat characteristics were examined on 33 potholes in each of two 16-square-mile study areas of agricultural and nonagricultural land in southwestern Manitoba. The agricultural land potholes, lacking in or incompletely surrounded by trees, received greater use by lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis ), canvasback ( A. valisineria ), redhead ( A. americana ), coot ( Fulica americana ), and three species of grebes ( Podicipedidae ). The nonagricultural land potholes, completely surrounded by trees, were more attractive to blue-winged teal ( Anas discors ), and mallard ( A. platyrhynchos ), and over twice as many dabbler broods were censused there. Abundant, undisturbed nesting cover may have been the reason for greater dabbler use on the nonagricultural land potholes since chemical and biological properties suggest more fertile conditions in the agricultural land.

Manitoba↗

USGS2015

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2020

Hydrologic modeling to examine the influence of the forestry reclamation approach and climate change on mineland hydrology

Forests in the Appalachian region of the U.S. are threatened by a variety of short- and long-term pressures, including climate change, invasive species, and resource extraction. Surface mining for coal is one of the most important drivers of land-use change in the region, reducing native forest cover, causing forest fragmentation, eliminating intact soil, and affecting water resources. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) has been demonstrated as a successful best practice for restoring forests on mine-impacted landscapes, but little information exists on how the practice will affect hydrologic processes. A study was initiated to examine soil-water movement, as in-situ saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sat ), combined with soil porosity to quantify the potential influence on streamflow of reclaimed mines relative to an unmined, forested control site in eastern Kentucky. We compared different reclamation techniques and time since reclamation to determine the extent to which hydrologic function can be restored. We also simulated evapotranspiration at the watershed scale as a function of reclamation technique for both historical and projected (2050) climate. Results indicate that conventional grassland reclamation critically changes how soil water transitions to streamflow, primarily due to K sat variability that exceeds that measured for intact and FRA soils. Sites reclaimed using FRA exhibited a soil-water environment that was more similar to the unmined control. However, all reclaimed mine soils were thinner, retained and stored less soil water, and thus could provide less plant-available water during the growing season. The plant-available water stored in reclaimed landscapes may not be sufficient to support forest health and this is exacerbated by projected climate conditions. However, soil development under a combination of FRA techniques has the potential to mitigate this limitation.

Kentucky↗

USGS2025

Performance mapping and weighting for the evapotranspiration models of the OpenET ensemble

Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for the majority of water available from precipitation in the terrestrial water cycle, and improvements to the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of ET data can enhance hydrologic models and assessments. The OpenET collaboration of six remotely sensed ET modeling teams has demonstrated that an ensemble approach to ET estimation generally provides improved accuracy relative to individual ensemble members. The performance of individual models has been shown to vary by land cover type and climate zone, but a thorough study of the variables that influence model performance differences has not yet been conducted. In this paper, we model the performance of OpenET models relative to flux tower data as a function of variables such as land cover type and precipitation. These performance models are used to map estimated OpenET model performance across the conterminous United States. We develop relative weights based on these modeled performance metrics and show that a performance-weighted ensemble improves accuracy relative to the current OpenET ensemble method to varying degrees. The monthly mean absolute error of the weighted ensemble is reduced relative to the current method by 8% in agricultural settings, by 23% in shrublands and mixed forests, and by 5% in grasslands and evergreen forests. We produce weight maps that can be used to generate performance-weighted ensemble values for OpenET data. The results can be used to inform model selection and provide insight about the controls on model performance that could lead to model refinement.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

U.S. conterminous wall-to-wall anthropogenic land use trends (NWALT), 1974–2012

This dataset provides a U.S. national 60-meter, 19-class mapping of anthropogenic land uses for five time periods: 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012. The 2012 dataset is based on a slightly modified version of the National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) that was recoded to a schema of land uses, and mapped back in time to develop datasets for the four earlier eras. The time periods coincide with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture data collection years. Changes are derived from (a) known changes in water bodies from reservoir construction or removal; (b) housing unit density changes; (c) regional mining/extraction trends; (d) for 1999–2012, timber and forestry activity based on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (Landfire) data; (e) county-level USDA Census of Agriculture change in cultivated land; and (f) establishment dates of major conservation areas. The data are compared to several other published studies and datasets as validation. Caveats are provided about limitations of the data for some classes. The work was completed as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and termed the NAWQA Wall-to-Wall Anthropogenic Land Use Trends (NWALT) dataset. The associated datasets include five 60-meter geospatial rasters showing anthropogenic land use for the years 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012, and 14 rasters showing the annual extent of timber clearcutting and harvest from 1999 to 2012.

Data Series↗

USGS2004

Summary of studies supporting cumulative effects analysis of upper Yellowstone River channel modifications

During the last several decades, portions of the upper Yellowstone River have been modified for flood control and erosion prevention. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for administration of a permit program for evaluating construction activities affecting rivers, streams, and wetlands. The Corps regulates activities under the authority of Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act and Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Since assumption of jurisdiction in the mid-1970’s, the Corps has processed a total of 156 permit actions for the upper Yellowstone River. Over two-thirds of the permit actions occurred during or after two consecutive large floods during 1996 and 1997. In response to concern regarding the potential environmental and ecological consequences of channel modification, the Corps, in conjunction with State and local government agencies, initiated a series of scientific studies to better understand the effects of channel modification in the upper Yellowstone River (Figure 1). These included preparation of wetland and riparian inventory maps (Bon, 2001); hydraulic modeling and flood-plain delineation; watershed land-cover assessment (Pick and Potter, 2003); historic bottomland use analysis (Brelsford and others, 2003); analysis of channel modification effects on fish habitat (Bowen and others, 2003); comparison of juvenile salmonid use of modified and unmodified habitats (Zale and Rider, 2003); analysis of riparian vegetation and flood-plain turnover (Merigliano and Polzin, 2003); study of the relations between riparian habitat and bird communities (Hansen and others, 2003); analyses of geomorphology and historical channel changes (Dalby and Robinson, 2003); socioeconomic assessment (BBC Research and Consulting, 2002); and sediment transport investigations and modeling (Holnbeck, 2003). This report is a summary of results from the individual scientific studies as they bear on future programmatic cumulative effects analyses of channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River. We do not attempt a formal, cumulative impact assessment in the sense of evaluating alternatives or future scenarios. The first section presents major findings of the resource studies in terms of temporal comparisons, spatial comparisons, and causal relations. In this section, we present a series of conceptual models or flow diagrams of the major causal pathways of cumulative impacts from channel modification. These represent major pathways of potential impact based on knowledge from other rivers, concerns expressed about the upper Yellowstone, and results from the scientific studies. These diagrams serve to focus interpretation of study results as either supporting or not supporting the importance and magnitude of particular causal relations and to identify key linking variables appearing in multiple causal pathways. These key variables that connect channel modification actions to multiple, valued environmental attributes can serve as the foundation for both projecting and monitoring future responses of the system. A section on analytical realities outlines some of the limitations of projecting cumulative impacts from channel modification of the upper Yellowstone River on meaningful spatial and temporal scales and some of the difficulties of interpreting results from studies conducted shortly after two extreme floods and substantial increases in channel modification. A section on classification describes the two primary geomorphic classification systems of the upper Yellowstone River used in the various individual resource studies. Each of these systems has been valuable in supporting field sampling and expressing results concerning patterns of variation. Their integration or revision into a classification system to achieve some new purpose, such as a regulatory program or monitoring system, will depend on a crisp articulation of riverine management or regulatory objectives. A section on key variables identifies those that are central to the causal pathways connecting channel modification to impacts and provides a rationale for key variables as an alternative to other tools such as Proper Functioning Condition (Barrett and others, 1993), Index of Biotic Integrity (Karr, 1981), or the Synoptic Approach (Liebowitz and others, 1992). This section also explains relations among key variable to Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) assessment procedures (Hauer and Smith, 1998; Hauer and others, 2001) and outlines how these 2 variables might be monitored to track cumulative impacts. Examples of how selected key variables can be quantified using Geographic Information System data sets developed from the resource studies are presented for one reach. The largest portion of the document is an Appendix that summarizes each of the individual scientific studies in terms of scope and methods, findings, principal variables, and metrics used in the study or suggested by the study results, and important needs for further study.

Montana↗

USGS2005

Physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of Sturgeon Lake, Goodhue County, Minnesota, 2003-04

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Prairie Island Indian Community and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study of Sturgeon Lake (a backwater lake in Navigation Pool 3 of the Mississippi River) during 2003-04 to describe the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the lake. Riparian and shoreline areas surrounding Sturgeon Lake consist primarily of deciduous tree and shrub cover with minimal amounts of commercial or residential land use. Woody debris and aquatic vegetation are the major types of physical habitat suitable for fish and invertebrates. Among 10 bottom-sediment sampling sites, 24 organic wastewater compounds, 1 organochlorine pesticide metabolite (p,p’DDE), and total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were detected in the bottom sediments of Sturgeon Lake. The most prevalent class of compounds detected were polyaromatic hydrocarbons. Other classes of compounds detected include sterols, disinfectants, plastic components, alkylphenols, and fragrances. Three compounds detected (bisphenol A, benzo[a]pyrene, and triclosan) are considered endocrine disrupting compounds. Twenty-one and 49 invertebrate taxa were identified from 10 bottom-sediment and 6 woody-debris/vegetation samples, respectively. Most of the taxa were Diptera in the family Chironomidae. The most common invertebrate in terms of density in bottom-sediment samples was the burrowing mayfly ( Hexagenia sp.). Trichoptera in the families Hydropsychidae or Polycentropodidae were common in most of the woody-debris samples. The presence of the Hexagenia larvae in samples indicates that the bottom sediments are stable and that dissolved oxygen concentrations in the lake do not drop to acute or sub-lethal anoxic conditions. Backwater lakes such as Sturgeon Lake are important areas of habitat for aquatic organisms along the Mississippi River, and this report provides baseline physical, chemical, and biological information that resource managers can compare with future investigations.

Minnesota↗

USGS2012

Use of occupancy models to evaluate expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships

Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee ( Contopus virens ) and Brown-headed Nuthatch ( Sitta pusilla ), occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as “optimal habitat” by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker ( Melanerpes erythrocephalus ) models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2003

Geographic Information System Tools for Conservation Planning: User's Manual

Public and private land managers desire better ways to incorporate landscape, species, and habitat relations into their conservation planning processes. We present three tools, developed for the Environmental Systems Research Institute?s ArcView 3.x platform, applicable to many types of wildlife conservation management and planning efforts. These tools provide managers and planners with the ability to rapidly assess landscape attributes and link these attributes with species-habitat information. To use the tools, the user provides a detailed land cover spatial database and develops a matrix to identify species-habitat relations for the landscape of interest. The tools are applicable to any taxa or suite of taxa for which the required data are available. The user also has the ability to interactively make polygon-specific changes to the landscape and re-examine species-habitat relations. The development of these tools has given resource managers the means to evaluate the merits of proposed landscape management scenarios and to choose the scenario that best fits the goals of the managed area.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2016

The effects of anthropogenic land cover change on pollen-vegetation relationships in the American Midwest

Fossil pollen assemblages provide information about vegetation dynamics at time scales ranging from centuries to millennia. Pollen-vegetation models and process-based models of dispersal typically assume stable relationships between source vegetation and corresponding pollen in surface sediments, as well as stable parameterizations of dispersal and productivity. These assumptions, however, are largely unevaluated. This paper reports a test of the stability of pollen-vegetation relationships using vegetation and pollen data from the Midwestern region of the United States, during a period of large changes in land use and vegetation driven by Euro-American settlement. We compared a dataset of pollen records for the early settlement-era with three other datasets of pollen and forest composition for two time periods: before Euro-American settlement, and the late 20th century. Results from generalized linear models for thirteen genera indicate that pollen-vegetation relationships significantly differ (p < 0.05) between pre-settlement and the modern era for several genera: Fagus, Betula, Tsuga, Quercus, Pinus , and Picea . The estimated pollen source radius for the 8 km gridded vegetation data and associated pollen data is 25–85 km, consistent with prior studies using similar methods and spatial resolutions. Hence, the rapid changes in land cover associated with the Anthropocene affect the accuracy of ecological predictions for both the future and the past. In the Anthropocene, paleoecology should move beyond the assumption that pollen-vegetation relationships are stable over time. Multi-temporal calibration datasets are increasingly possible and enable paleoecologists to better understand the complex processes governing pollen-vegetation relationships through space and time.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia

Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region.

Amhara region↗

USGS2024

Western and McKay's bumble bees occupancy trends and future projections

The Western and McKay's bumble bees, originally petitioned for listing as subspecies of the Western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) were previously among the most common western bumble bee species but have declined since the late 1990s (Graves et al. 2021). This report details an occupancy analysis utilizing pre-existing and newly collected bumble bee survey data to evaluate potential mechanisms associated with species trends across their distributions in western North America. In addition to evaluating spatially explicit changes in occupancy trends, we also sought to assess how widespread environmental conditions and stressors influence occupancy. Although changing climate, land cover, pesticides, and pathogens have all been identified as potential mechanisms for declines (Cameron et al. 2011, Kerr et al. 2015, Soroye et al. 2020), previous studies have not tied most climate hypotheses to bumble bee life histories or evaluated combined effects of more than 2 of these mechanisms at multi-state/ multiprovince scales. Using a scenario-based approach across climate models, emissions, and land cover scenarios, we projected future occupancy to mid-century (2050-2059). This analysis was conducted to support the Species Status Assessment (SSA) for Western and Mckay’s bumble bees being administered by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS).

Report↗

USGS2007

Response of Stream Chemistry During Base Flow to Gradients of Urbanization in Selected Locations Across the Conterminous United States, 2002-04

During 2002-2004, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program conducted a study to determine the effects of urbanization on stream water quality and aquatic communities in six environmentally heterogeneous areas of the conterminous United States--Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colorado; and Portland, Oregon. This report compares and contrasts the response of stream chemistry during base flow to urbanization in different environmental settings and examines the relation between the exceedance of water-quality benchmarks and the level of urbanization in these areas. Chemical characteristics studied included concentrations of nutrients, dissolved pesticides, suspended sediment, sulfate, and chloride in base flow. In three study areas where the background land cover in minimally urbanized basins was predominantly forested (Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Portland), urban development was associated with increased concentrations of nitrogen and total herbicides in streams. In Portland, there was evidence of mixed agricultural and urban influences at sites with 20 to 50 percent urban land cover. In two study areas where agriculture was the predominant background land cover (Milwaukee-Green Bay and Dallas-Fort Worth), concentrations of nitrogen and herbicides were flat or decreasing as urbanization increased. In Denver, which had predominantly shrub/grass as background land cover, nitrogen concentrations were only weakly related to urbanization, and total herbicide concentrations did not show any clear pattern relative to land cover - perhaps because of extensive water management in the study area. In contrast, total insecticide concentrations increased with increasing urbanization in all six study areas, likely due to high use of insecticides in urban applications and, for some study areas, the proximity of urban land cover to the sampling sites. Phosphorus concentrations increased with urbanization only in Portland; in Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham, leachate from septic tanks may have increased phosphorus concentrations in basins with minimal urban development. Concentrations of suspended sediment were only weakly associated with urbanization, probably because this study analyzed only base-flow samples, and the bulk of sediment loads to streams is transported in storm runoff rather than base flow. Sulfate and chloride concentrations increased with increasing urbanization in four study areas (Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee-Green Bay, and Portland), likely due to increasing contributions from urban sources of these constituents. The weak relation between sulfate and chloride concentrations and urbanization in Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver was likely due in part to high sulfate and chloride concentrations in ground-water inflow, which would have obscured any pattern of increasing concentration with urbanization. Pesticides often were detected at multiple sites within a study area, so that the pesticide 'signature' for a given study area - the mixtures of pesticides detected, and their relative concentrations, at streams within the study area - tended to show some pesticides as dominant. The type and concentrations of the dominant pesticides varied markedly among sites within a study area. There were differences between pesticide signatures during high and low base-flow conditions in five of the six study areas. Normalization of absolute pesticide concentrations by the pesticide toxicity index (a relative index indicating potential toxicity to aquatic organisms) dramatically changed the pesticide signatures, indicating that the pesticides with the greatest potential to adversely affect cladocerans or fish were not necessarily the pesticides detected at the highest concentrations. In a screening-level assessment, measured contaminant concentrations in individual base-flow water samples were compared with various water-qual

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2000

Combining accuracy assessment of land-cover maps with environmental monitoring programs

A scientifically valid accuracy assessment of a large-area, land-cover map is expensive. Environmental monitoring programs offer a potential source of data to partially defray the cost of accuracy assessment while still maintaining the statistical validity. In this article, three general strategies for combining accuracy assessment and environmental monitoring protocols are described. These strategies range from a fully integrated accuracy assessment and environmental monitoring protocol, to one in which the protocols operate nearly independently. For all three strategies, features critical to using monitoring data for accuracy assessment include compatibility of the land-cover classification schemes, precisely co-registered sample data, and spatial and temporal compatibility of the map and reference data. Two monitoring programs, the National Resources Inventory (NRI) and the Forest Inventory and Monitoring (FIM), are used to illustrate important features for implementing a combined protocol.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS1999

The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to historical climate variability and atmospheric CO2 in the United States

We use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, Version 4.1) and the land cover data set of the international geosphere-biosphere program to investigate how increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate variability during 1900-1994 affect the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous USA, and how carbon storage has been affected by land-use change. The estimates of TEM indicate that over the past 95 years a combination of increasing atmospheric CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability causes a 4.2% (4.3 Pg C) decrease in total carbon storage of potential vegetation in the conterminous US, with vegetation carbon decreasing by 7.2% (3.2 Pg C) and soil organic carbon decreasing by 1.9% (1.1 Pg C). Several dry periods including the 1930s and 1950s are responsible for the loss of carbon storage. Our factorial experiments indicate that precipitation variability alone decreases total carbon storage by 9.5%. Temperature variability alone does not significantly affect carbon storage. The effect of CO2 fertilization alone increases total carbon storage by 4.4%. The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability are not additive. Interactions among CO2, temperature and precipitation increase total carbon storage by 1.1%. Our study also shows substantial year-to-year variations in net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems due to climate variability. Since the 1960s, we estimate these terrestrial ecosystems have acted primarily as a sink of atmospheric CO2 as a result of wetter weather and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the 1980s, we estimate the natural terrestrial ecosystems, excluding cropland and urban areas, of the conterminous US have accumulated 78.2 Tg C yr-1 because of the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability. For the conterminous US, we estimate that the conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland and urban areas has caused a 18.2% (17.7 Pg C) reduction in total carbon storage from that estimated for potential vegetation. The carbon sink capacity of natural terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous US is about 69% of that estimated for potential vegetation.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

USGS2015

Implications of climate and land use change

This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

Book chapter↗

USGS1996

Trends in surface-water quality in Connecticut, 1969-88

Surface-water-quality data from selected monitoring stations in Connecticut were analyzed for trend, using the Seasonal Kendall test, for water years 1969-88, 1975-88, and 1981-88. The number of constituents and stations evaluated varied with the different time periods. The 39 monitoring stations included 26 freshwater streams with associated discharge data, 7 tidally affected streams, 4 harbor stations, and 2 surface impoundments. Flow-adjustment procedures were used where possible to minimize the effects of stream- flow variability on trend results. The drainage area of the monitoring stations includes approximately 5,000 mi 2 covering the State of Connecticut and about 11,000 mi 2 in upstream drainage areas outside of the State. Drainage basin size for the freshwater streams ranges from 4.1 mi 2 to 9,660 mi 2 . Land uses in the drainage basins range from undeveloped forested areas to highly urbanized metropolitan areas. During the period covered by the trend study, the State's population has grown, suburban development has increased, agricultural land use has decreased, and wastewater-treatment practices have improved. Increases in specific conductance and in the concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, dissolved solids, and total solids were geographically widespread and numerous during water years 1975-88 and indicate a general increase statewide in dissolved constituents in streamflow, both in urbanized and less developed areas. The effects of increasing urbanization, including municipal and industrial wastewater, septic system leachate, nonpoint runoff, and atmospheric deposition of contaminants, are possible causes for these increases. Decreases in turbidity and in the concentrations of total phosphorus, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria were geographically widespread and numerous during 1975-88. This general decrease in suspended material and bacteria may be attributable to basic improvements in the treatment of municipal and industrial wastewater during the period of record. Decreasing concentrations of total phosphorus may also be related to decreases in agricultural land use and to a decline in the use of detergents containing phosphorus. Detected decreases in total organic carbon and turbidity may have been caused, in part, by changes in sampling or analytical methods. Increases in total nitrogen, total organic nitrogen, and total nitrite-plus- nitrate were geographically widespread and numerous during 1975-88 and appear to indicate effects from both point sources in urbanized basins and nonpoint sources in less developed basins. The number of stations with increasing concentrations of nitrogen constituents was much smaller during 1981-88 than during 1975-88. Decreases in total ammonia nitrogen were detected at 11 stations during 1981-88. Decreases in total ammonia, sometimes paired with increases in total nitrite-plus-nitrate, may result from improvements in wastewater treatment. Increases in the concentration of dissolved oxygen, or dissolved oxygen as a percent of saturation, were geographically widespread and numerous during 1969-88 and 1975-88. Increases were less common during 1981-88. Increases in dissolved oxygen in urbanized basins may be related to major improvements in wastewater treatment during the 1970's and 1980's. The magnitude of the trends detected during 1969-88 may have been affected in part by a change, around 1974, in the model of the instrument used to measure dissolved oxygen in the field. Statewide increases in pH were detected during 1969-88, 1975-88, and 1981-88, in both urbanized and less developed basins. The widespread increases in pH were unexpected, given the relatively acidic quality of precipitation in the region during the study period. Only two decreases in pH were detected, both in relatively undeveloped basins. Increases in pH in urbanized areas may be related to decreasing concentrations of ammonia and to requirements for neutralization of municipal and industrial wastewater.

Connecticut↗