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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Incorporating an approach to aid river and reservoir fisheries in an altered landscape

Reservoir construction for human-use services alters connected riverine flow patterns and influences fish production. We sampled two pelagic fishes from two rivers and two reservoirs and related seasonal and annual hydrology patterns to the recruitment and growth of each species. River and reservoir populations of Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens reached similar ages (32 and 31, respectively). Likewise, longevity of Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum between the two systems was also similar (7 and 8 years, respectively). However, both species grew larger in the rivers compared to reservoir residents. Recruitment of Freshwater Drum in reservoirs was negatively related to water retention time (r2=0.59) suggesting moving water through the reservoir was beneficial. Riverine recruitment of Freshwater Drum populations was negatively related to the annual number of flow reversals and positively related to prespawn discharge (r2 = 0.33). Unlike Freshwater Drum, there was no relationship between flow metrics and Gizzard Shad recruitment in reservoirs. However, recruitment of riverine Gizzard Shad was positively related to high flow pulses during the prespawn and spawning seasons (r2 = 0.48). The growth of both species in reservoirs was positively related to the number of days each year that water levels were above the conservation pool. Growth of Freshwater Drum was also negatively related to minimum reservoir summer water levels (r2 = 0.84). Growth of both Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad occupying lotic systems was positively related to May (r2 = 0.86) and July discharge (r2 = 0.84), respectively. In general, growth and recruitment of the reservoir populations was more related to annual water patterns, whereas riverine fishes responded more to seasonal flow patterns. Results of this study provide important information on the relationship between hydrology and pelagic fish production in both rivers and reservoirs. This information is useful if agencies are interested in developing holistic river-reservoir water-allocation plans.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS2025

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2023 through December 2023

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2008) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2023, we PIT-tagged 1,294 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 parr were at high abundance due to a strong spawning run in 2023 (estimate of 814 adults from September snorkel survey compared to 22-year median of 450; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2022), but age-1 parr abundance was low following poor spawner numbers in 2022 (estimate of 159 adults from September snorkel survey). An additional 189 age-2 or older parr were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during seven of the past nine years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during eight of the past nine years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, where it had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues because of an inadequate fish ladder. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that often most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing downstream of their natal areas. It is unknown if this is ingrained behavior or a result of lack of habitat capacity. We have estimated that from 15 to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall: this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed. These findings raise questions about preferred parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are part of the long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration actions occur. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed. Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. Non-native Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling provides an index of their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2022, though variable, have generally declined. Evaluation and planning of habitat restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin informs research and tracking of many populations and habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT-tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Applying threshold concepts to conservation management of dryland ecosystems: Case studies on the Colorado Plateau

Ecosystems may occupy functionally distinct alternative states, some of which are more or less desirable from a management standpoint. Transitions from state to state are usually associated with a particular trigger or sequence of triggers, such as the addition or subtraction of a disturbance. Transitions are often not linear, rather it is common to see an abrupt transition come about even though the trigger increases only incrementally; these are examples of threshold behaviors. An ideal monitoring program, such as the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, would quantify triggers, and be able to inform managers when measurements of a trigger are approaching a threshold so that management action can avoid an unwanted state transition. Unfortunately, both triggers and the threshold points at which state transitions occur are generally only partially known. Using case studies, we advance a general procedure to help identify triggers and estimate where threshold dynamics may occur. Our procedure is as follows: (1) Operationally define the ecosystem type being considered; we suggest that the ecological site concept of the Natural Resource Conservation Service is a useful system, (2) Using all available a priori knowledge to develop a state-and-transition model (STM), which defines possible ecosystem states, plausible transitions among them and likely triggers, (3) Validate the STM by verifying the existence of its states to the greatest degree possible, (4) Use the STM model to identify transitions and triggers likely to be detectable by a monitoring program, and estimate to the greatest degree possible the value of a measurable indicator of a trigger at the point that a state transition is imminent (tipping point), and values that may indicate when management intervention should be considered (assessment points). We illustrate two different methods for attaining these goals using a data-rich case study in Canyonlands National Park, and a data-poor case study in Wupatki National Monument. In the data-rich case, STMs are validated and revised, and tipping and assessment points are estimated using statistical analysis of data. In the data-poor case, we develop an iterative expert opinion survey approach to validate the degree of confidence in an STM, revise the model, identify lack of confidence in specific model components, and create reasonable first approximations of tipping and assessment points, which can later be refined when more data are available. Our goal should be to develop the best set of models possible given the level of information available to support decisions, which is often not much. The approach presented here offers a flexible means of achieving this goal, and determining specific research areas in need of study.

Book chapter↗

USGS1997

The Areal Extent of Continuous Type Gas Accumulations in Lower Silurian Clinton Sands and Medina Group Sandstones of the Appalachian Basin and the Environments Affected by Their Development

In order to best preserve and manage our energy and natural resources we must understand the relationships between these resources and the impacts of their development. To further this understanding the U.S. Geological Survey is studying unconventional continuous-type and, to a lesser extent, conventional oil and gas accumulations and the environmental impacts associated with their development. Continuous-type gas accumulations are generally characterized by low matrix permeabilities, large areal extents, and no distinct water contacts. This basin scale map shows the overall extent of these accumulations and the general land use types that may be impacted by their development. The Appalachian Basin has the longest history of oil and gas exploration and production in the United States. Since Drake's Titusville discovery well was drilled in 1859, oil and gas has been continuously produced in the basin. While there is still a great deal of oil and gas production, new field discoveries are rare and relatively small. For most of the second half of the 20th century the Appalachian basin has been considered a mature petroleum province because most of the large plays have already been discovered and developed. One exception to this trend is the Lower Silurian Clinton Sands and Medina Group Gas play which is being developed in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. This continuous-type gas play has been expanding since the early 1970's (see inset maps). In the 1980's economic incentives such as large increases in wellhead prices further stimulated continuous-type gas resource development. Continuous-type gas plays can be large in areal extent and in thickness. 'Sweetspots' (areas of greater prodcution) are hard to predict and generally associated with better than average permeabilities, and enhanced by natural fracture systems. With an overall success rate often approaching 90%, drilling most of the play with closely spaced wells is often the best way to maximize gas recovery. Some positive economic characteristics associated with the development of these continuous-type accumulations are high success rates, low drilling and development costs, and low water production, which results in low water disposal costs. Large areas within the Appalachian basin with good potential for this type of gas accumulation remain to be tested. Positive environmental characteristics include, a clean energy source, low water production, and relatively low surface impact. Some negative characteristics associated with these continuous -type accumulations are low individual well production rates and small well drainage area. Negative environmental characteristics are primarily related to the dense well spacing used to develop the resource to its full potential. Often negative environmental impacts such as surface disturbance can be greatly reduced. The number of well sites can be decreased by using a single centrally located surface location and associated facilities for several directionally or horizonatally drilled wells. This also minimizes the transportation infrastructure (access roads and pipelines) required to maintain the wells and deliver the gas. Visual impacts can be reduced by selecting well locations visible only over short distances. While the prospective area is large, potential decreases basin- ward and toward the northeast and southwest. These areas are represented by the lower potential plays 6727, 6730, and 6731. The U.S. Geological Survey landuse and landcover data was derived from USGS 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale maps. This information was collected between the mid 1970s to mid 1980s. The land use and land cover data was mapped and coded using the Anderson classification system (Anderson, 1975) which is a hierarchical system of general (level 1) to more specific (level 2) characterization. Level 1 characterization was used for this map; the land use and land cover designations are displayed below in the Explanation. T

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Boletin Geologico y Minero↗

USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2005

Plant species invasions along the latitudinal gradient in the United States

It has been long established that the richness of vascular plant species and many animal taxa decreases with increasing latitude, a pattern that very generally follows declines in actual and potential evapotranspiration, solar radiation, temperature, and thus, total productivity. Using county-level data on vascular plants from the United States (3000 counties in the conterminous 48 states), we used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate competing models predicting native and nonnative plant species density (number of species per square kilometer in a county) from various combinations of biotic variables (e.g., native bird species density, vegetation carbon, normalized difference vegetation index), environmental/topographic variables (elevation, variation in elevation, the number of land cover classes in the county, radiation, mean precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration), and human variables (human population density, cropland, and percentage of disturbed lands in a county). We found no evidence of a latitudinal gradient for the density of native plant species and a significant, slightly positive latitudinal gradient for the density of nonnative plant species. We found stronger evidence of a significant, positive productivity gradient (vegetation carbon) for the density of native plant species and nonnative plant species. We found much stronger significant relationships when biotic, environmental/topographic, and human variables were used to predict native plant species density and nonnative plant species density. Biotic variables generally had far greater influence in multivariate models than human or environmental/topographic variables. Later, we found that the best, single, positive predictor of the density of nonnative plant species in a county was the density of native plant species in a county. While further study is needed, it may be that, while humans facilitate the initial establishment invasions of nonnative plant species, the spread and subsequent distributions of nonnative species are controlled largely by biotic and environmental factors.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Projecting flood frequency curves under near-term climate change

Flood-frequency curves, critical for water infrastructure design, are typically developed based on a stationary climate assumption. However, climate changes are expected to violate this assumption. Here, we propose a new, climate-informed methodology for estimating flood-frequency curves under non-stationary future climate conditions. The methodology develops an asynchronous, semiparametric local-likelihood regression (ASLLR) model that relates moments of annual maximum flood to climate variables using the generalized linear model. We estimate the first two marginal moments (MM) – the mean and variance – of the underlying log-Pearson Type-3 distribution from the ASLLR with the monthly rainfall and temperature as predictors. The proposed methodology, ASLLR-MM, is applied to 40 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages covering 18 water resources regions across the conterminous United States. A correction based on the aridity index was applied on the estimated variance, after which the ASLLR-MM approach was evaluated with both historical (1951–2005) and projected (2006–2035, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) monthly precipitation and temperature from eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) consisting of 39 ensemble members. The estimated flood-frequency quantiles resulting from the ASLLR-MM and GCM members compare well with the flood-frequency quantiles estimated using the historical period of observed climate and flood information for humid basins, whereas the uncertainty in model estimates is higher in arid basins. Considering additional atmospheric and land-surface conditions and a multi-level model structure that includes other basins in a region could further improve the model performance in arid basins.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1984

Synopsis of ground-water and surface-water resources of North Dakota

This report describes the surface- and ground-water resources of North Dakota and the limitations of our understanding of these resources. Ground water and surface water are actually one resource, because they are often hydraulically interconnected. They are discussed separately for convenience. In general, the surface-water resources of the mainstem of the Missouri river are abundant and suitable for most uses. Other rivers may be important locally as water-supply sources, but the quantities of flow are small, quite variable in time, and generally of an unsuitable quality for most uses. Streamflow characteristics of North Dakota reflect its arid to semiarid climate (annual precipitation varies from 13 to 20 inches from west to east across the State), cold winters (usually including a significant snowpack available for spring snowmelt runoff), and the seasonal distribution of annual precipitation (almost 50 percent falls from Nky to July). Significant volumes of shallow ground water, of variable quality are found in the glacial-drift aquifers in parts of central, northern, and eastern North Dakota. Existing information provides only a limited capability to assess the long-term reliability of these scattered aquifers. There are significant indications, however, of water-quality problems related to sustained production of wells if long-term utilization of these aquifers is planned. A summary of the general suitability for use of surface water and ground water is given in Table E1.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗

USGS1975

Lakes in the greater Denver area, Front Range urban corridor, Colorado

The many lakes in Colorado's semiarid Front Range Urban Corridor have an especially high value. In the past they were used primarily to store water for irrigation and domestic uses. Some were used for recreation. Today, rapid suburban development in the Front Range Urban Corridor is accompanied by a shift of the principal use of many lakes to recreation and to centers of real estate developments. These same lakes are threatened with a general deterioration of chemical and biological quality caused by heavy use and development of the surrounding area. The purpose of this report is to present the results of an inventory of the lakes in the central one-third of the Colorado Front Range Urban Corridor. This inventory provides information that might be helpful in planning the best and most beneficial use of lakes in an area of rapid population growth. The report includes data on lake size and water quality. Size data are included on most of the lakes of 2 hectares (20,000 m 2 , or about 5 acres) or greater, and water-quality data are provided on most lakes larger than 10 hectares (about 25 acres). Bodies of water resulting form excavation of gravel (borrow pits) were generally not included in the inventory.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Bayesian networks facilitate updating of species distribution and habitat suitability models

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2008

Mapping of Florida's coastal and marine resources: Setting priorities workshop

The importance of mapping habitats and bioregions as a means to improve resource management has become increasingly clear. Large areas of the waters surrounding Florida are unmapped or incompletely mapped, possibly hindering proper management and good decisionmaking. Mapping of these ecosystems is among the top priorities identified by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council in their Annual Science Research Plan. However, lack of prioritization among the coastal and marine areas and lack of coordination of agency efforts impede efficient, cost–effective mapping. A workshop on Mapping of Florida’s Coastal and Marine Resources was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), and Southeastern Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS). The workshop was held at the USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) in St. Petersburg, FL, on February 7-8, 2007. The workshop was designed to provide State, Federal, university, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) the opportunity to discuss their existing data coverage and create a prioritization of areas for new mapping data in Florida. Specific goals of the workshop were multifold, including to: provide information to agencies on state-of-the-art technology for collecting data; inform participants of the ongoing mapping programs in waters off Florida; present the mapping needs and priorities of the State and Federal agencies and entities operating in Florida; work with State of Florida agencies to establish an overall priority for areas needing mapping; initiate discussion of a unified classification of habitat and bioregions; discuss and examine the need to standardize terminology and data collection/storage so that data, in particular habitat data, can be shared; identify opportunities for partnering and leveraging mapping efforts among agencies and entities; identify impediments and organizational gaps that hinder collection of data for mapping; seek innovative solutions to the primary obstacles identified; identify the steps needed to move mapping of Florida’s oceans and coasts forward, in preparation for a better coordinated, more cost-effective mapping program to allow State and Federal agencies to make better decisions on coastal-resource issues. Over 90 invited participants representing more than 30 State and Federal agencies, universities, NGOs, and private industries played a large role in the success of this two-day workshop. State of Florida agency participants created a ranked priority order for mapping 13 different regions around Florida. The data needed for each of the 13 priority regions were outlined. A matrix considering State and Federal priorities was created, utilizing input from all agencies. The matrix showed overlapping interests of the entities and will allow for partnering and leveraging of resources. The five most basic mapping needs were determined to be bathymetry, high-vertical resolution coastline for sea-level rise scenarios, shoreline change, subsurface geology, and benthic habitats at sufficient scale. There was a clear convergence on the need to coordinate mapping activities around the state. Suggestions for coordination included: creating a glossary of terms: a standard for specifying agency data-mapping needs; creating a geographic information officer (GIO) position or permanent organizing group to maintain communications established at this workshop and to maintain progress on the issues identified during the workshop. The person or group could develop a website, maintain a project-status matrix, develop a list of contacts, create links to legislative updates and links to funding sources; developing a web portal and one-stop/clearinghouse of data. There was general consensus on the need to adopt a single habitat classification system and a strategy to accommodate existing systems smoothly. Unresolved aspects of the systems warrant that a separate workshop would be needed to work out details. Participants recognized that the State priority list would necessarily be updated periodically. An annual review of priorities would facilitate information exchange, mapping activities updates, and re-allocation of funding among changing priorities. It was recognized that mapping of State waters would take billions of dollars and in light of tightening budgets there was need for processes that could be used to appropriate or leverage monies for mapping and reduce data-collection costs. Fourteen different avenues were explored. There was a clear consensus that the linking of public to private partnerships to support mapping was imperative, and ways to achieve this were discussed.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Developing a stochastic hydrological model for informing lake water level drawdown management

Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it at 15 Massachusetts lakes where WDs have been applied over multiple years for vegetation control. HMF-Lake is based on the daily lake water balance, with inflows simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model (Cemaneige-GR4J) and outflow rate calculated by a modified Target Storage and Release Based Method (TSRB). The model showed a satisfactory performance of simulating historical water levels (0.53 ≤ NSE ≤ 0.86), however, uncertainties from meteorological inputs and TSRB determined lake outflow rate affected the result accuracy. To account for these uncertainties, the model was executed stochastically to assess the ability of study lakes to follow the Massachusetts’ general WD guidelines: drawdown by Dec 1 and fully refilled by Apr 1. By using the stochastic HMF-Lake, the probabilities of each lake to reach the drawdown level by Dec 1 were calculated for different drawdown magnitudes (1–6 ft). The probability results suggest it was generally less possible for most of study lakes to achieve a drawdown of 3 ft or more by Dec 1. Moreover, we employed the stochastic model to derive the annual latest refill starting dates that ensure a 95 % probability of reaching the normal water level by Apr 1. We found starting a refill in March for drawdowns up to 6 ft was feasible for most of study lakes. These results provide lake managers with a quantitative understanding of the lake’s ability to follow the state guidelines. The model may be used to systematically evaluate current WD management strategies at state or regional scales and support adaptive WD management under changing climates.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2013

A model of strength

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Science↗

USGS2009

Distribution, density, and biomass of introduced small mammals in the southern mariana islands

Although it is generally accepted that introduced small mammals have detrimental effects on island ecology, our understanding of these effects is frequently limited by incomplete knowledge of small mammal distribution, density, and biomass. Such information is especially critical in the Mariana Islands, where small mammal density is inversely related to effectiveness of Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) control tools, such as mouse-attractant traps. We used mark-recapture sampling to determine introduced small mammal distribution, density, and biomass in the major habitats of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian, including grassland, Leucaena forest, and native limestone forest. Of the five species captured, Rattus diardii (sensu Robins et al. 2007) was most common across habitats and islands. In contrast, Mus musculus was rarely captured at forested sites, Suncus murinus was not captured on Rota, and R. exulans and R. norvegicus captures were uncommon. Modeling indicated that neophobia, island, sex, reproductive status, and rain amount influenced R. diardii capture probability, whereas time, island, and capture heterogeneity influenced S. murinus and M. musculus capture probability. Density and biomass were much greater on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam, most likely a result of Brown Tree Snake predation pressure on the latter island. Rattus diardii and M. musculus density and biomass were greatest in grassland, whereas S. murinus density and biomass were greatest in Leucaena forest. The high densities documented during this research suggest that introduced small mammals (especially R. diardii) are impacting abundance and diversity of the native fauna and flora of the Mariana Islands. Further, Brown Tree Snake control and management tools that rely on mouse attractants will be less effective on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam. If the Brown Tree Snake becomes established on these islands, high-density introduced small mammal populations will likely facilitate and support a high-density Brown Tree Snake population, even as native species are reduced or extirpated. ?? 2009 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

Pacific Science↗

USGS2007

Synthesis of juvenile salmonid passage studies at The Dalles Dam volume II: 2001 - 2005

The overall goal of juvenile salmonid research at The Dalles Dam is to provide data to inform decisions on strategies to improve smolt survival rates at the project. Survival improvement strategies address the three primary passage routes at The Dalles Dam -- spillway, sluiceway, and turbines – with the general intent to increase spill and sluice passage and decrease turbine passage. From 2001, when Ploskey et al. (2001a) completed their review of 1982-2000 research, through 2005, the USACE has funded over $20M of research in at least 40 studies. The purpose of this current review is to synthesize juvenile salmonid passage data at The Dalles Dam (TDA) collected from 2001 through 2005.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS1982

The Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program: Guide to information about the geology and mineral resources of the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert quadrangles, southeastern Alaska

The Ketchikan and Prince Rupert 1-degree by 2-degree quadrangles, which encompass about 16,000 km2 at the south tip of southeastern Alaska, have been investigated by integrated field and laboratory studies in the disciplines of geology, geochemistry, geophysics, and Landsat data interpretation to determine their mineral-resource potential. Mineral deposits in the study area have been mined or prospected intermittently since about 1900, and production of small tonnages of ores containing gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and tungsten has been recorded. Extensive exploration and development currently (1981) is underway at a molybdenum prospect about 65 km east of Ketchikan. Our mineral-resource assessment indicates that the area contains potentially significant amounts of those metallic commodities, as well as of molybdenum, iron, antimony, and barite. The results of these studies have been published in a folio of maps accompanied by descriptive texts, diagrams, tables, and pertinent references. The present report serves as a guide to these investigations, provides relevant background information, and integrates the component maps and reports. It also describes revisions to the geology based on studies completed since the folio was published and includes a list of specific and general references on the geology and mineral deposits of the study area.

Alaska↗